Tuesday's MLB Card
By Brian Edwards
Bettors have nine games on Tuesday’s MLB card, including three games in the afternoon. The Yankees-Angels and Tigers-Royals will come off the board at 1:00 p.m. Eastern, while the Dodgers will host the D-backs at 4:00 p.m. ET. Let’s take a look at a couple of the games under the lights before touching on a few other topics.
**Mets at Rockies**
As of early this morning, most betting shops had Colorado (3-3, -74) listed as a minus-145 favorite with a total of 10 ½ ‘under’ (minus-120). Gamblers can take the Rockies on the run line (minus 1 ½ runs) for a plus-14- return (risk $100 to win $140).
New York (2-4, -381) hits the road after an inauspicious home stand to start the regular season. The Mets lost two of three at Citi Field to the Marlins and the Nats, who beat up the home team to cash underdog tickets Saturday and Sunday.
The Mets will give the ball to John Maine, who got a no-decision in his first outing of the season that left him with a 7.20 ERA. The right-hander owns a 2-1 record and 2.66 ERA in three career starts against Colorado.
Greg Smith (0-1, 9.00 ERA) gave up five earned runs in his 2010 debut for the Rockies, who are 2-1 at home after taking two of three from San Diego this past weekend at Coors Field. Smith, a southpaw, is 7-17 with a 4.28 ERA in 33 career starts. His 32 previous appearances came with the A’s in 2008.
The ‘under’ has cashed in three of the Mets’ last four games, but is just 3-3 overall. Meanwhile, the Rockies have watched the ‘under’ hit in three consecutive games, although it is just 3-2-1 overall.
New York veteran second baseman Luis Castillo could return to the lineup after not starting the last two games with a calf injury.
The Mets have won eight of the last 11 head-to-head meetings against the Rockies, but Colorado won two of three when they met in Denver last September.
The first pitch is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. Eastern. If you have the MLB Package, you can find this game on Direct TV at channels 733 or 734.
**A’s at Mariners**
As of early this morning, most books were listing Oakland (6-2, +479) as a minus-130 ‘chalk’ with a total of 7 ½ ‘under’ (minus-115). The A’s were plus-130 for run-line wagers.
Seattle (2-6, -422) is in the cellar of the American League West, four games back of the division-leading A’s, who hold a 1 ½-game edge over the second-place Rangers.
Bob Geren’s club won Monday’s opener of this three-game series by a 4-0 count. The A’s cashed tickets as plus-115 underdogs. Justin Duchscherer worked 7 1/3 innings of scoreless baseball, scattering a pair of hits. Gabe Gross had a two-run single and Cliff Pennington belted his second homer of the season.
Oakland LHP Brett Anderson (1-0. 0.00) worked six scoreless innings in his season debut, a 6-2 win over the Mariners. The left-hander went 11-11 with a 4.06 ERA in his rookie campaign of 2009. Anderson is 3-2 with a 2.83 career ERA against Seattle.
Seattle RHP Doug W. Fister (0-1, 4.50) only retired 12 batters in his season debut, giving up six hits and a pair of earned runs. Fister has a 1-1 record and 2.25 ERA in three lifetime starts against the A’s.
Since losing its season opener 5-3 to Seattle, Oakland has won four straight head-to-head meetings against the Mariners.
The ‘over’ is 4-3-1 overall for Oakland, while the ‘under’ is 4-3-1 overall for the M’s.
Fox Sports Northwest and Comcast California will have television coverage at 10:10 p.m. ET.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
The Yankees will host the Angels at 1:05 p.m. Eastern. Andy Pettitte will take the rubber for the Bronx Bombers, who bring a 4-2 record into record into their home debut. Joe Girardi’s squad took two of three at Boston and at Tampa Bay. The ‘over’ is 5-1 for the Yanks. Pettitte is 12-10 with a 4.70 lifetime ERA against the Halos, who will turn to Ervin Santana, who is 5-2 with a 5.21 career ERA against New York.
KC’s Brian Bannister has enjoyed success against Detroit, compiling a 4-2 record and 2.01 ERA in seven career starts against the Tigers. Bannister will get the ball today in the 1:05 p.m. Eastern start in the Motor City. Jim Leyland’s team is a minus-139 favorite at most spots. He’ll give the nod to lefty Dontrelle Willis, who gave up a pair of earned runs in six innings during his season debut.
Chicago RHP Gavin Floyd has not fared well against Toronto, posting an 0-3 record and 7.64 career ERA against the Blue Jays.
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NATIONAL LEAGUE
Cincinnati (4-3) at Florida (4-3)
Bronson Arroyo (0-0, 1.12 ERA) goes after his 14th consecutive quality start when he takes the mound for the surging Reds against lefty Nate Robertson (1-0, 1.80) and the Marlins at Sun Life Stadium.
Cincinnati dropped its first two games of the season to the Cardinals, but has come back to win four of the last five, including Monday’s 6-5, 10-inning win. The Reds blew a 5-4, seventh-inning lead, then got out of a bases-loaded, one-out jam in the bottom of the ninth. Dating to last season, Dusty Baker’s club is on positive runs of 14-6 overall, 6-1 on the highway, 5-1 on Tuesday, 6-2 against the N.L. West, 11-4 as an underdog and 5-1 versus left-handed starters, though the Reds have dropped seven of their last eight road games against southpaws.
Florida had a modest two-game win streak halted Monday, but it is still 4-2 in its last six. The Marlins are also on surges of 6-2 against right-handed starters, 11-0 in the second game of a series and 29-15 as a home favorite.
These teams split their six-game season series in 2009, but the Reds are now 13-5 in the last 18 meetings. Also, going back to 2007, the home team is on a 15-6 roll in this rivalry.
Arroyo was sharp in his season debut Thursday, holding the Cardinals to one run on four hits in eight innings, walking three and striking out eight. Although he failed to get a decision, Cincinnati prevailed 2-1 with a walk-off homer in the bottom of the ninth. With Arroyo on the hill, the Reds are on runs of 4-1 overall and 6-2 against the N.L. West.
Going back to the beginning of August 2009, Arroyo has delivered 13 straight quality starts, pitching at least seven innings and allowing three earned runs or fewer in all 13 games. He’s 5-3 with a 1.84 ERA during this stretch (20 runs allowed in 97 2/3 innings, including 2-1 with a 1.60 ERA in five road stats, going exactly seven innings in all five of those contests. Finally, Arroyo is 0-2 with a 3.75 ERA in eight career appearances (five starts) against Florida. Cincy lost four of those five starts, including a 3-2 home decision last September, with Arroyo giving up three runs in eight innings.
Robertson’s debut with Florida was a success, as he gave up a run on eight hits with no walks and four strikeouts in five innings at the Mets, picking up a 3-1 victory Thursday. It was the first time Robertson pitched for a team other than the Tigers since making six appearances with Florida in 2002. In two career outings in Miami, Robertson has allowed four runs in 1 1/3 innings. Also, his only career start against the Reds came in 2006, when he pitched 7 1/3 scoreless innings in leading the Tigers to a 1-0 home victory.
As a team, the Reds have topped the total in seven of their last nine road games dating to last season, and the over is 6-1-2 in their last nine on Tuesday, but the under is 3-1-1 in their last five overall and 19-8-1 in their last 28 on the road against lefty starters. Additionally, with Arroyo pitching, Cincinnati is on “under” runs of 18-6-2 overall (8-0 last eight), 4-1-1 on the road, 6-0 after he gets four days of rest, 7-0 against winning teams, 5-2 versus the N.L. East and 5-0 in the second game of a series.
On the flip side, Florida carries “over” trends of 7-1 overall, 23-7 at Sun Life Stadium, 10-1-1 against right-handed starters and 37-16-3 at home versus righty starters, though the under is 5-1-1 in the Marlins’ last seven against the N.L. Central.
Finally, the under is 5-1-1 in the last seven Reds-Marlins battles, but the over has hit in nine of the last 11 meetings in South Beach. Also, three of Arroyo’s last four starts against the Marlins have topped the total (2-0 “over” in Florida).
ATS ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Chicago White Sox (3-4) at Toronto (5-2)
The surprising Blue Jays send young lefty Ricky Romero (0-0, 1.29) to the mound at the Rogers Centre as they continue a four-game series against the White Sox, who will hand the ball to Gavin Floyd (0-0, 3.00).
Chicago snapped a four-game losing skid with Sunday’s 5-4 home victory over the Twins, then went north of the border to open this series Monday and rallied for an 8-7, 11-inning win. Prior to Monday, the White Sox had lost five straight to the Blue Jays and 10 in a row in Canada, and they’re still just 3-14 in the last 17 meetings overall and 2-13 in the last 15 clashes in Toronto. Additionally, Chicago is in slumps of 1-5 on Tuesday, 1-5 in the second game of a series and 8-19 as a road underdog.
Toronto dropped its first game of the season in Texas, blowing a 4-3 bottom-of-the-ninth-inning lead and falling 5-4, then ripped off five straight road wins before stumbling in last night’s home-opener. Still, the Jays are on positive runs of 8-1 at home, 7-1 as a favorite, 4-1 against right-handed starters and 4-0 on Tuesday.
Floyd held the Indians to two runs on five hits in six innings Thursday, but it wasn’t enough as the White Sox fell 5-3 at home. Other than a 5-1 run on Tuesday, the ChiSox have struggled lately with Floyd on the mound, going 1-6 in his last seven starts overall and 0-4 in his last four on the road (all as an underdog). Last year, Floyd was 5-8 with a 5.47 ERA in 17 starts on the road, compared to 6-3 with a 2.47 ERA in 13 home outings.
Floyd is 9-3 with a 7.64 ERA in four appearances (three starts) against the Blue Jays, giving up 15 earned runs in 17 2/3 innings. Two of those starts came last year, and he lost 14-0 at home and 8-2 on the road, allowing a total of 12 runs (11 earned) in 9 1/3 innings.
Romero was outstanding in his first start on Thursday, holding the Rangers to a run on five hits in seven innings, but he didn’t get a decision even though Toronto eventually prevailed 3-1 on the road. However, going back to his rookie season last year, the Jays are still just 4-9 in Romero’s last 13 trips to the mound (2-4 at home). He went 8-4 with a 4.41 ERA in 14 home starts last year, and he’s never faced the White Sox.
It’s been all “unders” for the White Sox lately, including 34-16-2 overall, 34-16-2 on the road, 19-6-1 as a road underdog, 10-5 versus the A.L. East, 7-0 with Floyd on the mound, 6-0 with Floyd as an underdog and 5-0 when Floyd faces A.L. East squads. Meanwhile, Toronto is on “over” stretches of 6-1-1 at home, 6-1-1 as a favorite, 5-0 against the A.L. East, 15-6-2 against right-handed starters and 3-0-1 on Tuesday.
Lastly, Monday’s series opener easily cleared the posted total, and the over has cashed in eight of the last 11 in this rivalry, though the under is still 7-3 in the last 10 meetings at the Rogers Centre.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TORONTO
MLB RoundUp For 4/13
By Dan Bebe
National League
Diamondbacks @ Dodgers (-175) with a total of 8
Chris Snyder is 2-for-3 with a HR and 3 RBI off Kershaw;
Mark Reynolds is 3-for-7 off Kershaw.
The Dodgers haven't really seen Ian Kennedy, and we know he hasn't really "panned out"...yet. Is this a potential breakout year? Maybe. The Dodgers have a huge starting pitching advantage in this one, but the bullpen has been extremely shaky so far. Too expensive to get on Dodgers, and not enough evidence to support the D'backs. No leans, here.
Reds @ Marlins (-110) with a total of 8.5
Orlando Cabrera is 7-for-21 off Robertson since 2005;
Jonny Gomes is 3-for-5 off the Marlins lefty;
Ronny Paulino is 6-for-12 off Arroyo with 3 RBI;
Dan Uggla is 5-for-11 with a HR and 2 RBI;
Jorge Cantu is 6-for-19 with 2 HR and 3 RBI;
Chris Coghlan is 2-for-4, Wes Helms is 2-for-5, and Mike Lamb is 4-for-11 off Arroyo.
Bronson Arroyo is about as streaky as they come, and he dominated in his opener, but this is just not the team I want him facing, even when hot. Robertson pitched well in his first game with Florida, and the Reds haven't seen much of him. At this price, neither side is all that compelling. I might look at the Under, believe it or not.
Mets @ Rockies (-160) with a total of 9.5
Gary Matthews Jr is 5-for-15 with 2 RBI off Greg Smith;
John Maine is 2-1, 2.66 ERA against Colorado in his career;
Todd Helton is 3-for-8 off John Maine;
Seth Smith is 1-for-2, but that was a HR.
John Maine has pitched well against the Rockies best hitters, which makes him something of a live dog. The Mets have been downright bad offensively this year, which makes them a tough team to back, but in terms of situations to get +150 odds, fading Greg Smith, an unproven bottom-of-the-rotation hurler, is certainly a potential opportunity. Lean to Mets. No lean on the total.
Pirates @ Giants (-210) with a total of 7.5
Paul Maholm is 1-1, 2.85 ERA against the Giants;
Ronny Cedeno is 2-for-11, Ryan Church is 1-for-8, Bobby Crosby is 1-for-15, Ryan Doumit is 2-for-11, Garrett Jones is 1-for-6, Andrew McCutchen is 0-for-5, and Delwyn Young is 0-for-6 off Cain;
Pablo Sandoval is 3-for-6 off Maholm;
Mark DeRosa is 5-for-16 with a HR off Maholm;
Edgar Renteria is 4-for-12 off Paul;
This is a ton of value to get with a strong, young pitcher like Maholm, but unlike yesterday where we felt that Barry Zito doesn't warrant -200 odds, Matt Cain does. This line is fairly accurate, as Cain has positively dominated just about every regular in the Pirates lineup, and while Maholm hasn't been bad against the Giants, the Pirates won't win a close game. I'd look at the Under before either side.
American League
Royals @ Tigers (-155) with a total of 9.5
Johnny Damon was 6-for-8 lifetime off Bannister with a HR and 4 RBI before last week;
Miguel Cabrera has homered twice, and Carlos Guillen was 5-for-12;
Bannister is 4-2 against the Tigers, 2.09 ERA.
This is another rematch, and so far, rematches have been fairly predictable. Last week, the world backed Bannister at home, and he and Dontrelle pitched to a 2-1 Royals lead, at which point the Tigers pen gave up 1 run, and the Royals pen gave up 6. That can change things quickly. I'm curious to see if Dontrelle can throw the ball well in front of the home crowd, but I don't know how you can avoid Bannister this time. His pen let him down a week ago, but with 10-15 more pitches in his tank, Bannister should be able to make a push for 7 innings. Lean to KC. Lean to the Under in spacious Comerica.
Angels @ Yankees (-180) with a total of 10
Erick Aybar is 7-for-16 with 2 RBI off Pettitte;
Mike Napoli is 5-for-9 off the veteran southpaw;
Brandon Wood is 2-for-3 with a HR, Jeff Mathis is 3-for-9, and Maicer Izturis is 2-for-4;
Ervin Santana has a career 5.21 ERA against New York;
Andy Pettitte has a career 5.68 ERA against LAA;
Derek Jeter is batting .435 off Santana over the last 5 years with 2 HR and 2 RBI.
Santana's ERA against New York isn't very good, but he's 5-2 in his career, and a lot of that has to do with limiting damage. He gives up the home run ball, but the Yankees don't put as many guys on base against Santana as the numbers might indicate. The Angels are slumping, but I think the Yankees are over-pumped for this one, and there might be some value in the scrappy Halos.
Rays (-125) @ Orioles with a total of 9
Brian Roberts was 8-for-18 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Jeff Niemann (but on the DL now);
Nick Markakis was 6-for-16 with a HR and 3 RBI;
Matt Wieters was 5-for-7 with 3 RBI, and Ty Wigginton was 3-for-6 with a HR;
Ben Zobrist was 2-for-3 off Brian Matusz with a HR and 4 RBI.
All of those numbers are not counting the meeting a week ago.
We backed the Orioles at a big dog price last week, and picked up a win, though Jeff Niemann was knocked out of the game by a line drive very early on. Believe it or not, I'm tempted to back the O's again. Matusz isn't going to be getting this kind of value all season, and without the 5 walks he issued in a jittery start in Tampa, this kid could potentially dominate the game for 7 innings. Niemann struggles with the O's, but Baltimore struggles to hit with RISP. Slight lean to Baltimore to support their young stud, and slight lean to the Under until we see the O's score in bunches.
White Sox @ Blue Jays (-130) with a total of 8
Adam Lind is 3-for-8 with 1 HR and 4 RBI off Gavin Floyd.
Toronto is apparently being cryptic with their starters, though Ricky Romero followed Brian Tallet last week, and I would assume he'll get the nod. In any case, Gavin Floyd has been awful against Toronto in his career, but looking at the individual player numbers, it seems like his struggles weren't with the guys currently on the Jays' roster. This one is all kinds of crazy, and we may have to make some decisions when we know more. No leans yet.
Athletics (-135) @ Mariners with a total of 7.5
Ichiro was 6-for-9 off Anderson, and Mike Sweeney was 7-for-15 with a HR;
Chone Figgins was 3-for-8 off Anderson.
Brett Anderson absolutely cruised through 6 shutout innings a week ago when these two went head-to-head in a game the A's won 6-2. Something tells me this one gets played closer. I might look at the Under with neither team really all that offensively beefy, but I'm not sure I'd back Brett Anderson to throw another 6-7 shutout innings. He very well might, and maybe I'm overlooking the obvious, so I won't write it off, but I feel the line is pretty accurate.