NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia (8-4) at Atlanta (7-5)
The Phillies open a three-game series at Turner Field when they send Kyle Kendrick (0-0, 17.47 ERA) to the mound opposite the Braves’ Tommy Hanson (1-1, 2.38) in a battle of N.L. East rivals.
After exploding for 77 runs in its first 10 games (winning eight of them), Philadelphia was held to just a single run in a pair of weekend home losses to the Marlins (5-1 on Saturday; 2-0 on Sunday). The Phillies finished their first homestand at 3-3 after starting the year with a 5-1 road trip. The two-time defending N.L. champs continue to sport positive trends of 6-1 against right-handed starters, 48-22 in series openers, 37-14 after a day off and 44-21 on Tuesday.
One day after getting no-hit by Rockies right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez, Atlanta rallied for two runs in the bottom of the ninth inning Sunday to steal a 4-3 victory over the Rockies and win the weekend series. The Braves have won four of their last five (following a 1-4 slump), and they’re on additional runs of 4-1 on Tuesday, 15-6 after a victory and 44-20 following an off day. However, they’ve lost six straight games against N.L. East foes and seven of 10 to right-handed starters.
The Braves took 10 of 18 meetings with Philadelphia last year, but lost five of the last seven. Also, the Phillies are 13-5 in their last 18 contests at Turner Field.
Kendrick has gotten bombed in his first two outings of 2010 (both against Washington), giving up a total of 11 runs on 12 hits in just 5 2/3 innings. In Wednesday’s home start, the right-hander lasted just 1 2/3 innings, allowing six runs on six hits and three walks, but his offense bailed him out and eventually went on to a 14-7 victory.
Behind Kendrick, the Phillies are on runs of 16-5 in the first game of a series, 10-1 when he’s coming off five days of rest and 7-1 when he throws on Tuesday, but they’ve lost his last five road starts, where he’s 10-8 with a 5.30 ERA in 29 career road outings (26 starts). Also, the Houston native is 4-1 with a 3.29 ERA in seven games (six starts) against the Braves, with Philly winning four of the last five starts. In four games (three starts) at Turner Field, he’s 2-0 with a 3.10 ERA.
Hanson surrendered just one run on four hits and four walks with striking out seven in six innings in San Diego on Thursday, dominating the Padres 6-1. He was solid in his first home game (two runs, four hits, three walks, seven strikeouts in 5 1/3 innings), but suffered a 2-0 loss to the Cubs. Since getting rocked in his big-league debut at home last June, Hanson is 7-2 with a 2.63 ERA in 11 starts at Turner Field.
Hanson faced the Braves twice last season (one home, one road) and lost both games by identical 4-2 scores, giving up a combined five runs in seven innings (6.43 ERA).
Despite staying under the total in their last two games against Florida, the Phillies remain on a slew of “over” runs, including 33-16-2 overall, 18-6 on the road, 8-2 versus division rivals, 12-3-1 coming off a loss, 8-3-1 in series openers and 5-0 after an off day. Also, with Kendrick pitching, the over is on surges of 31-11 overall, 19-6-1 on the road, 6-1 against the N.L. West and 6-1 in series openers.
Atlanta is on “over” tears of 5-2-2 overall and 4-0 in series openers, but otherwise the Braves carry “under” trends of 4-1 at home, 6-1-1 after a day off, 5-1-1 with Hanson on the mound and 5-0 with Hanson starting at home. Additionally, the under has cashed in seven of the last 10 meetings between these teams overall and five of the last seven at Turner Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (9-3) at Oakland (9-5)
The surprising A’s welcome the Yankees to the Coliseum for a three-game series, with young lefty Gio Gonzalez (1-0, 3.38) set to take the ball for the hosts against struggling veteran Javier Vazquez.
New York completed a three-game weekend sweep of the Rangers with Sunday’s 5-2 victory, its fourth win in a row and seventh in the last eight games. The Yankees opened 2010 with a six-game road trip, taking two of three from division rivals Boston and Tampa Bay. Joe Girardi’s troops enter this series on positive stretches of 61-24 overall (playoffs included), 4-1 on the road, 4-0 against the A.L. West, 20-8 on Tuesday, 59-24 after a victory and 41-17 against left-handed starters.
Oakland’s three-game winning streak ended with Sunday’s 8-3 home Baltimore, and it was just the team’s second defeat in eight home games this season. Despite sitting atop the A.L. West, the A’s are still just 3-8 in their last 11 games after a loss and 15-39 when returning from an off day.
New York went 7-2 against the A’s last year and has won 11 of the last 13 meetings, going 4-2 in the last six in Oakland.
Vazquez’s second tour of duty with the Yankees has gotten off to a rocky start. He surrendered eight runs (all earned) in 5 2/3 innings of a 9-3 loss at Tampa Bay 11 days ago, then gave up four runs in 5 1/3 innings against the Angels on Wednesday, falling 5-3 at home. Last year with the Braves, the right-hander was sensational on visiting mounds, going 10-2 with a 2.80 ERA in 16 starts.
Vazquez is 2-3 with a 4.98 ERA in seven career starts against the A’s, going 1-2 with a 5.63 ERA in five games at the Coliseum. However, in his two most recent outings against Oakland (both with the White Sox in 2008), he gave up a total of four runs on eight hits and one walk while striking out 18 in 17 innings (2.12 ERA).
Gonzalez has yielded two runs and six hits in each of his first two starts, beating the Angels 10-4 and losing to the Mariners 4-2 (both on the road). Going back to last year, Gonzalez is 2-2 with a 3.13 ERA and a 21-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last four starts (three of them against the Angels).
Gonzalez is just 3-6 with a 6.79 ERA in 13 career games (12 starts) at the Coliseum. However, the 24-year-old Florida native dominated the world champs in one start last year, allowing a run on two hits and three walks (six strikeouts) in 6 2/3 innings, winning 6-4 at Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees stayed under the total in four of their final five games of their just-completed homestand and the under is also 4-1 in their last five against the A.L. West. However, they remain on “over” runs of 34-16-2 on the road, 5-1 on Tuesday, 6-0 against southpaw starters, 6-0 after a day off and 8-1 against winning teams. And going back to Vazquez’s first stint with New York, the Yanks have topped the total in four of his last five starts overall, four of his last five on the road, nine of his last 10 in series openers and 10 of his last 12 versus winning teams.
Oakland has topped the total in four straight games after an off day, but otherwise the club is on “under” surges of 6-1 overall, 3-1-1 at home, 5-0 against right-handed starters, 8-2 after a defeat, 4-1 versus A.L. East opponents, 11-5-1 on Tuesday, 5-0 behind Gonzalez overall and 4-0 when Gonzalez starts on Tuesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
MLB Combo RoundUp For 4/20
By Dan Bebe
National League
Rockies (-160) @ Nationals with a total of 9
Chris Iannetta is just 2-for-7 off Olsen, but both are HRs;
Ryan Spilborghs is 7-for-9 with a HR and 4 RBI off Olsen;
Adam Dunn is 4-for-13 with a HR off De La Rosa;
Willie Harris is 3-for-5, and Josh Willingham is 3-for-7 off De La Rosa.
The Nationals are, still quietly, winning games as a dog, but no one can trust them because of 2009 and the first series of this season. But this team can hit. Still, despite the Nats looking better than Colorado over the last series or so, this is still a pitching matchup I wouldn't touch. Scott Olsen is embarrassingly bad at times, has an ERA over 8 against Colorado, and I'd love to take a dog, but this probably isn't the one.
Brewers (-145) @ Pirates with a total of 9
Jim Edmonds hit a 2-run HR in his only AB off Morton.
I'm honestly flabbergasted at Dave Bush being this large of a road favorite against a team that has really played decent ball at home this year. The Pirates are fresh off a sweep of the Reds at home, they beat the Dodgers 2 of 3 in Pittsburgh, and they look revitalized, at least here at the start of the season. Charlie Morton is 0-2 with an ERA near 14 on the year, so that's likely playing a role, but he is the ultimate hit-or-miss starter, and has a 2.77 career ERA against Milwaukee, so the Pirates are definitely on the table.
Dodgers (-140) @ Reds with a total of 9
Rafael Furcal is 4-for-7 off Bailey;
Matt Kemp is 3-for-5 with a HR;
James Loney, Russ Martin and Manny Ramirez are each 2-for-5 off Bailey;
Joey Votto is 5-for-11 off Billingsley;
Jonny Gomes is a perfect 3-for-3 with a HR and 2 RBI.
Chad Billingsley is 3-2 with a 2.35 ERA against Cincinnati in his career, and the Reds have lost 5 straight games. They're just not hitting, and I realize that going home changes things a bit, but historically, the Dodgers play the Reds exceedingly tough. Coming from a lifelong Dodger fan, if there's one road park that I rarely mind seeing the Dodgers go to over the last few years, it's Great American. As you've heard before, betting on streaks is alright in baseball, and while Billingsley is doing little to inspire confidence yet again, he's the better bet in this one.
Cubs @ Mets (-110) with a total of 8
Chad Tracy is the only Cub that has seen much of Pelfrey, going 3-for-8 with 4 RBI off him;
Jason Bay is batting .321 with 2 HR and 7 RBI off Zambrano;
Luis Castillo is 4-for-10, and Angel Pagan is 3-for-6 off Big Z.
Zambrano is off to a horrible start, though he's slowly getting better, I guess. Pelfrey has gotten off to a nice start, going 2-0 with just a 1.29 ERA so far this year. He has nice numbers against Chicago, albeit a very small sample size. I think you have to at least look at the home team, though I'm not sure there's a ton of value either way.
Phillies @ Braves (-160) with a total of 8.5
Matt Diaz is 3-for-4 off Kendrick in limited action;
Chipper Jones is 6-for-13 with 2 HR and 6 RBI off Kendrick;
Nate McLouth is 3-for-8 with 2 HR off Kendrick;
Brian McCann is 5-for-16 with a HR off Kendrick.
Neither pitcher appears to be in the best of spots. Hanson facing the Phils, and Kendrick, who currently sports a 17.47 ERA. This line is awfully high for any game featuring the Phillies, from a dog perspective, but oddsmakers generally know what they're doing, and to me, this is too expensive to back Hanson. Tommy is the real deal, but he does have a career 0-2, 6.43 spot against Philadelphia. Still, put it all together, and I'd pass.
Marlins (-119) @ Astros with a total of 8.5
John Baker is 3-for-8 off Myers;
Jorge Cantu is 6-for-14 off Myers with 1 HR and 4 RBI;
Dan Uggla is batting .378 with 5 HR and 14 RBI off Myers since '05;
Hanley Ramirez, also since '05, is batting .357 off Myers with a HR;
Michael Bourn is 2-for-5 off Volstad.
The Astros haven't seen much of Chris Volstad, and that should work in his favor. Houston is starting to play like they have a shot on a day-by-day basis, but will coming home actually increase the pressure, or will it help? Brett Myers has a 3.46 ERA early in 2010, which is better than I think most expeted, but his 6-11 lifetime mark against Florida does not look pretty. I have to look at the Marlins, but we'll see if this is a value.
Cardinals @ D'backs (-140) with a total of 8.5
Matt Holliday is 5-for-11 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Haren.
Surprisingly little interesting historical data, considering these two pitchers aren't exactly throwing their first game. No one on Arizona has done anything substantial against Lohse, so he's a safe play. Haren has silenced everyone on the Cardinals besides Matt Holliday, as you can see above. Arizona is a hitters' park, so the under is dicey, but to me, that's the only lean I can scrounge up in this one.
Giants (-125) @ Padres with a total of 7
No one, and I mean no one on the Padres has done anything against Jonathan Sanchez. I know the Padres are a scrappy bunch, but even Adrian Gonzalez has struggled against Sanchez, who has absolutely nasty stuff when he's near home plate. Latos, on the other side, hasn't faced the Giants, and is coming off a tough start against Atlanta. His problem is that he's not being economical with his pitches, and until he learns how to get through 6 innings reliably, he's a tough cat to back.
American League
Royals @ Blue Jays (-155) with a total of 9
Yuny Betancourt is 5-for-15 off Eveland;
Billy Butler is 2-for-6, Alberto Callaspo is 2-for-5, and David DeJesus is 3-for-4 off Eveland;
Lyle Overbay is 4-for-6 with 1 HR and 2 RBI.
The Royals pen is too awful to make a play here, and Eveland has started this year strong. This line is probably about where it should be. Pass.
Rangers @ Red Sox (-140) with a total of 9
Vlad Guerrero is 5-for-11 off Wakefield since '05 with a HR and 2 RBI.
Another game where we're dealing with a fresh crop of batters on one side, and a fresh-faced pitcher on the other. Two slumping teams, I suppose something's gotta give. Wakefield is generally pretty solid at home, but Colby Lewis has posted a dynamite pair of starts to begin 2010. Pass.
Indians @ Twins (-160) with a total of 8.5
Travis Hafner is 3-for-10 off Slowey with a HR;
Justin Masterson is 0-2, 5.40 ERA against the Twins.
I included that note on Masterson because he's opened 2010 well, but the Twins are a tough, patient team, and loaded with crafty left-handed bats. The O-dog is 2-for-3, same with Kubel. Mauer is 3-for-5, and so on and so forth. This line is accurate, but too high for me to back Slowey. Pass.
Rays (-120) @ White Sox with a total of 8
Dioner Navarro is 5-for-11 off Danks;
Alex Rios is 3-for-5 with a HR off Price;
Paul Konerko is 2-for-3 with a HR.
John Danks is something of a Rays-killer, going 4-1 with a 2.67 ERA against the Rays in his career. David Price seems prime for that monster year, but didn't pitch well in his one try against Chicago. Can the Southsiders get something going at home? I suppose it's as good a chance as any. Lean to Chicago, but I might need a push on this one.
Yankees (-150) @ Athletics with a total of 8.5
Daric Barton is 2-for-5 and Jake Fox is 2-for-4 off Vazquez.
Javier Vazquez is SHAKY to start the season, and Gio Gonzalez has been pretty reliable so far. This is a tough, tough wager to make, but based on just the few numbers we've got at hand, the value is on Oakland's side. Let's track some line movement, since we know damn well where the public's going to go, but on a dangerous play like this one, we want all the confirmation we can get.
Tigers @ Angels (-127) with a total of 9
Ramon Santiago is 2-for-3 off Kazmir, and both were HRs;
Juan Rivera is a perfect 2-for-2 off Porcello.
This is a very low line for the Angels at home, especially with Porcello having given up, as I recall, 4 runs in 5 innings against the Angels last year. Kazmir had a rough start in New York, as the patient Yanks really made him work, but the Tigers really haven't done much against Kazmir, at least not recently. This is probably a pass.
Orioles @ Mariners (-141) with a total of 8.5
Garrett Atkins is 5-for-7 off Vargas with 2 HR and 4 RBI;
Nolan Reimold each have a HR in 6 AB off Vargas;
Jose Lopez is 3-for-6 with a HR and 5 RBI off Hernandez.
Looks like the Orioles are back to losing, getting bopped last night here in Seattle. Now, the Mariners are at a pretty decent price, but Vargas just isn't a good pitcher. He'll throw strikes, and he does have a career 2.81 ERA against Baltimore, but when you get these two unproven pitchers going head to head, I'd much prefer to try to sneak a play on a dog. This dog barked one time over the last 2 weeks, really, and now they've gone back to dormancy.
Diamond Trends - Tuesday
By Vince Akins
Tigers at Angels – The Tigers are 9-0 since May 05, 2009 when Rick Porcello starts within 20 cents of pickem vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $930
Marlins at Astros – The Marlins are 0-5 since June 26, 2009 after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Marlins are 0-5 since May 15, 2009 when Christopher Volstad starts as a favorite in the first game of a series for a net profit of $660 when playing against. The Astros are 7-1 since June 11, 2009 as a home dog after a one run win for a net profit of $770.
Yankees at Athletics – The Yankees are 8-0 since April 11, 2009 as a road 140+ favorite after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $800. The Athletics are 3-0 since July 25, 2009 when Gio Gonzalez starts after he went less than 5 innings in his previous start for a net profit of $525
Royals at Blue Jays – The Royals are 7-0 since August 11, 2009 when Kyle Davies starts as a dog for a net profit of $1075.
Phillies at Braves – The Phillies are 0-5 since June 26, 2009 on the road after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings for a net profit of $605 when playing against. The Braves are 6-0 since April 07, 2009 after a win in which their starter pitched at least 8 innings for a net profit of $600
Cardinals at Diamondbacks – The Cardinals are 0-9 since July 27, 2008 when Kyle Lohse starts on the road after his team won the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $970 when playing against. The Diamondbacks are 7-0 since May 23, 2009 when Dan Haren starts as a favorite after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $700
Orioles at Mariners – The Orioles are 0-9 since September 21, 2009 on the road after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $900 when playing against.
Cubs at Mets – The Cubs are 8-0 since April 26, 2009 as a favorite after a 5+ run loss and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $800. The Mets are 0-8 since May 19, 2009 as a dog when they won the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $800 when playing against..
Rockies at Nationals – The Rockies are 9-1 since July 08, 2009 when Jorge De La Rosa starts as a 140+ favorite after his team won the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $710
Giants at Padres – The Giants are 0-5 since April 28, 2009 when Jonathan Sanchez starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $500 when playing against.
Brewers at Pirates – The Brewers are 1-9 since May 22, 2009 on the road after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $715 when playing against. The Brewers are 12-1 since September 24, 2007 when David Bush starts as a favorite after a quality start for a net profit of $1080
Rangers at Red Sox – The Rangers are 0-7 since September 15, 2009 after a loss in which they left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $810 when playing against.
Dodgers at Reds – The Dodgers are 0-4 since August 01, 2009 after a win in which they drew 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $630 when playing against.
Indians at Twins – The Indians are 0-6 since May 02, 2009 on the road after a win in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $615 when playing against. The Indians are 0-6 since September 01, 2009 on the road and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Twins are 5-0 since April 25, 2009 when Kevin Slowey starts vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $545
Rays at White Sox – The Rays are 5-0 since July 31, 2009 when David Price starts in the first game of a series for a net profit of $540