N.Y. Yankees (0-1) at Boston (1-0)
After blowing a pair of leads and dropping their season opener on Sunday, the Yankees will try to bounce back when they send A.J. Burnett (13-9, 4.04 ERA in 2009) to the Fenway Park mound opposite Red Sox southpaw Jon Lester (15-8, 3.41).
New York squandered leads of 5-1 and 7-5 on Sunday night, eventually losing 9-7, with Boston’s Dustin Pedroia (2-for-4, HR, 2 runs, 3 RBIs) and Kevin Youkilis (3-for-4, 3 runs, 2 RBI) doing most of the damage. That makes the home team 14-5 in this rivalry since the start of last season.
Despite Sunday’s result, the Yankees remain on positive runs of 76-32 overall, 40-16 against A.L. East rivals, 38-16 against left-handed starters, 5-1 on Tuesday and 35-16 after a loss. Boston is on surges of 56-24 at Fenway, 4-1 after a victory, 44-16 following a day off and 6-2 on Tuesday, but the Sox are just 1-6 in their last seven against the A.L. East and 2-5 versus right-handed starters.
Burnett had a solid first season in New York, and he was particularly strong down the stretch of the regular season, allowing two runs or fewer in his final four starts (1.88 ERA). Also, the Yankees won eight of his last 10 starts against A.L. East foes. However, Burnett struggled in the playoffs, going 1-1 with a 5.27 ERA in five starts. Including two terrible postseason road outings in which he gave up a total of 12 earned runs in 10 innings, Burnett was just 8-7 with a 5.24 ERA in 19 starts as a visitor.
Burnett is 5-2 with a 4.23 ERA in 12 career starts against the Red Sox, including 3-2 with a 5.35 ERA in a half-dozen outings at Fenway Park. Last year, the veteran right-hander faced Boston four times, and New York lost three of those games with Burnett posting an 8.85 ERA. In three games at Fenway (all Yankees losses), Burnett went 0-2 with a 14.21 ERA (20 earned runs allowed in 12 2/3 innings).
Lester was sensational from August 1 on last season, going 6-1 with a 2.47 ERA, and Boston won eight of his final nine regular-season starts. However, in his lone playoff outing, Lester suffered a 5-0 loss at the Angels, giving up three runs on four hits in six innings. At home last year, Lester went 7-3 with a 2.86 ERA in 14 outings, and the Red Sox won his last seven starts at Fenway, all by multiple runs. In fact, the Red Sox are 26-4 in his last 30 home efforts.
Lester is 3-1 with a 3.88 ERA in eight regular-season starts against New York, and he’s given up two earned runs or fewer in five of those contests. Half of the eight starts came in 2009, and Lester went 1-1 with a 4.43 ERA.
Sunday’s game easily went over the posted total, making the over 5-2 in the last seven meetings overall and 37-18-1 in the last 56 battles in Boston. Also, New York is on “over” runs 5-0 dating to last year, 6-0-1 on the road, 4-0 on the road against lefty starters, 5-2 after a defeat, 7-2-1 on Tuesday, 5-2 when Burnett pitches on the road and 4-0-1 when Burnett faces the A.L. East. Likewise, the Red Sox carry “over” trends of 4-0 at home, 4-0 within the division, 8-2 after a win and 4-1 when Lester faces division rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER
Minnesota (0-1) at L.A. Angels (1-0)
The Twins and Angels continue their season opening series at Angel Stadium, with Nick Blackburn (11-11, 4.03) slated to take the mound for the visitors opposite L.A. southpaw Joe Saunders (16-7, 4.60).
Los Angeles took the season opener 6-3 on Monday, getting solo home runs from Jeff Mathis, newcomer Hideki Matsui and Kendry Morales, along with a solid start from Jered Weaver. Going back to last year, the Angels are on positive surges of 13-5 overall, 9-2 at home, 6-1 against right-handed starters and 7-2 versus the A.L. Central.
Despite Monday’s loss, the Twins remain on solid runs of 17-8 overall, 8-3 against lefty starters and 20-6 on Tuesday, but they’ve now lost five of their last six on the road and 39 of 56 when facing southpaws on the highway.
Minnesota won the first three meetings with Los Angeles last year, but the Angels have now taken seven of the last eight, including a three-game sweep in Minneapolis over the summer in which they outscored the Twins 35-15. In fact, the winning team in this series has scored in double digits in five of the last six meetings.
Also, the home team has won nine of the last 13 series clashes, and the Angels are 24-9 in the last 33 battles in Southern California.
Blackburn was Minnesota’s best pitcher down the stretch last season, giving up three earned runs or fewer in nine of his final 10 starts, including surrendering a total of six runs in his final five outings covering 33 innings (1.64 ERA). The Twins went 4-1 in those five games, but the one loss was a 4-3, 11-inning setback at the Yankees in the second game of the American League Division Series. Minnesota is just 8-21 in Blackburn’s last 29 road efforts and 3-13 in his last 16 against the A.L. West.
Blackburn had a better home record (7-4) than road mark (4-7), but his ERA was better on the highway (3.89) than in Minnesota (4.18). However, the right-hander has not had any success against the Angels in his career, going 0-3 with a 5.72 ERA in five starts, with Minnesota losing four of the five games. In two contests at Angel Stadium, Blackburn has surrendered 12 runs (nine earned) on 16 hits in 8 1/3 innings (9.72 ERA), losing 7-5 in 2008 and 11-5 last year.
Saunders was inconsistent for the first 4½ months of 2009, but he was sensational after mid-August, allowing three earned runs or fewer in his final 10 starts (playoffs included) and surrendering two earned runs or less eight times. During this stretch, he went 8-1 with a 2.87 ERA. However, the Angels lost both of Saunders’ American League Championship Series starts (both at Yankee Stadium) by scores of 4-3 and 5-2. Still, Los Angeles is 65-31 in Saunders’ last 96 trips to the mound.
Saunders is 23-12 with a 4.43 ERA in 52 regular-season home starts, and the Halos are 36-15 when he pitches in Anaheim. He’s faced the Twins four times, going 3-1 with a 4.10 ERA, but in his one home start against Minnesota back in 2008, Saunders got torched for six runs on nine hits in 5 1/3 innings, losing 9-0.
The Twins are on “under” runs of 11-5-2 as an underdog, 5-2 against the A.L. West, 7-3 when Blackburn starts and 18-7-1 with Blackburn working on the road, but the over is 7-2-2 in their last 11 on Tuesday and 5-2 in their last seven against left-handed starters. The Angels carry “under” streaks of 33-17-2 overall, 20-9-2 as a favorite, 8-1 against A.L. Central squads, 17-8-1 versus right-handed pitchers, 7-2-1 on Tuesday and 4-1 with Saunders on the hill. However, the over is 8-3 in Saunders’ last 11 home contests.
Finally, Monday’s series opener cleared the posted total, so the “over” is now 13-3-2 in the last 18 meetings in this series and 7-0-1 in the last eight clashes at Angel Stadium. Also, these teams have gone “over” in each of Blackburn’s last four starts against Los Angeles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and OVER
MLB RoundUp For 4/6
By Dan Bebe
National League
Giants @ Astros (-145) with a Total of 8
Edgar Renteria is 3-for-5 off Wandy Rodriguez, but 2 of those hits are HR;
Wandy Rodriguez is 0-1, 14.73 ERA against SF, but largely different batters.
This line is probably pretty accurate, though Wandy's struggle in his brief pitching against SF is a head-scratcher. Crapshoot on the total, too.
Rockies @ Brewers (-140) with a Total of 8.5
Ryan Spilborghs is really the only Colorado player with consistent success against Randy Wolf, at 3-for-10 with 2 HR.
Very little information about Rockies starter Greg Smith, and I doubt he goes more than 5 innings. Definitely looking at the Over, and maybe a glance at Brewers, but at that price, a little steep.
Padres @ Diamondbacks (-170) with a Total of 9
Adrian Gonzalez hit a 3-run HR in his only AB off Edwin Jackson;
Stephen Drew is 4-for-10 off big Chris Young, and Justin Upton is 3-for-8;
Edwin Jackson had a nice first half last year, so watch him closely.
The Padres have almost no exposure to Jackson, so it makes this one tough to call either way, side or total.
American League
Orioles @ Rays (-170) with a Total of 8.5
Adam Jones is 6-for-15 off James Shields;
Miguel Tejada is 7-for-20 off Shields;
James Shields, though, is 6-2, 2.92 ERA lifetime against the O's.
Don't much care for the side, though the value is with Baltimore. With starters on a pitch counts early, and less-than-intimidating bullpens here, folks should be thinking about taking Overs or nothing.
Yankees @ Red Sox (-140) with a Total of 9.5
Derek Jeter is 9-for-24 career off Jon Lester (but that's about it for the NY regulars).
Both starters have decent numbers against their opponents, so I think you have to lean to the dog. The high-scoring opener on Sunday might create a little value on the Under.
Twins @ LA Angels (-125) with a Total of 9
Nick Blackburn is winless against Anaheim (0-3) with an ERA of 5.72;
Joe Mauer is 0-for-8 lifetime off Joe Saunders, a huge bat to silence, to be sure;
Orlando Hudson and Denard Span are combined 7-for-13 off Saunders, but have just 1 RBI between them;
Bobby Abreu is 7-for-13 off Blackburn with 1 HR and 4 RBI;
Howie Kendrick is 5-for-10 with 3 RBI;
Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera are each .500 hitters off Blackburn, too.
At a decent value, lean to Angels behind a (hopefully) resurgent Saunders. Both teams can score, but this total is accurate, maybe tiny lean to Over.
Mariners @ Athletics (-150) with a Total of 8.5
Chone Figgins is 7-for-13 lifetime off the A's Dallas Braden;
In limited action, Franklin Gutierrez (2-for-5), Casey Kotchman (2-for-2), Ichiro (3-for-10), and Mike Sweeney (3-for-4) have all done some mild damage off Braden;
Ian Snell is 2-0 against the A's with a 2.45 ERA, surprisingly;
Kurt Suzuki is 3-for-6 off Ian Snell with 3 RBI;
Rajai Davis is 2-for-2 off Snell, and Daric Barton is 2-for-4.
The value is squarely with the Mariners here, but can we trust Snell? A pitcher's park, but this one could sneak Over with both starters likely gone after 5.
Diamond Trends - Tuesday
By Vince Akins
Giants at Astros – Active with San Fransisco. The League is 8-0 OU since October 11, 2009 as an underdog vs a team that has a worse record for a net profit of $800 when playing the over. Active with Houston The League is 1-10 since September 28, 2009 at home after a loss in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $1185 when playing against. The Astros are 0-8 OU since April 06, 2007 when Wandy Rodriguez starts at home in April for a net profit of $800 when playing the under.
Padres at Diamondbacks – The Padres are 1-13 since October 06, 2005 as a 140+ dog after a loss in which they were shut out in the first 6 innings for a net profit of $1135 when playing against.
Yankees at Red Sox – The Yankees are 9-1-1 OU since July 11, 2009 when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $790 when playing the over. The Red Sox are 19-2 since August 14, 2007 when Jon Lester starts as a home favorite vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $1585