Tuesday at the Ballpark
By Judd Hall
Cliff Lee helped the Phillies make it back to the World Series last season. But he couldn’t be shipped out of town fast enough for Philadelphia to acquire Roy Halladay. Both stud hurlers will be taking the mound on Tuesday night. Let’s examine their games.
Mariners (12-19, -868) at Orioles (8-23, -1,073) – 7:05 p.m. EDT
There was a time before this season started that the Mariners were tabbed as favorites to win the American League West. And almost mid-way through May Seattle sits in last place, 5 ½-games behind Ron Washington’s Rangers. They are entering this game on a positive after defeating the Angels 8-1 as a $1.10 home pup last Sunday. The win snapped an eight-game losing skid.
Cliff Lee (0-1, 2.40) will no doubt be hoping that that surge of offense comes to help him out on Tuesday night. He might have a better shot of watching pigs fly since the M’s are next to last in Major League Baseball in runs scored (102), 28th in team batting (.229) and the fewest home runs (12). You can kind of understand why Lee has only had three runs scored for him in his two starts.
Even though Lee has failed to get run support, he did let his last start on May 5 at home against the Rays get away. He allowed six hits and two earned runs in his first seven innings of work against Tampa Bay. But Lee imploded (by his standards, anyway) for three runs on four hits in the eighth en route to an 8-3 setback.
The one thing that Lee and the Mariners have going is that they’re facing off with Baltimore at Camden Yards. The Orioles have been agonizingly bad this year. Outside of a three-game sweep at home of the Red Sox (a blind squirrel even finds a nut), the O’s have only won one other series, last week at Minnesota. And Baltimore needed some snow to fall in May for that to happen.
I shouldn’t be too hard on the Orioles. They are hitting better as a team that Seattle (.244) and have scored more runs than their opposition on Tuesday evening (107). Plus, Ty Wiggington has almost as many four-baggers (10) as Seattle has in this still young season.
Another thing we can cut Baltimore some slack on is its schedule. Out of the 10 series the Orioles have had this season, only one was against a team with a losing record. That series happened to be against the M’s at Safeco Field and they were owned.
David Hernandez (0-4, 5.74) gets the nod for the O’s in this contest, but that might not be such a good thing. Hernandez hasn’t lasted more than 6.1 innings in any of his starts this season. And he just got rocked for six earned runs on six hits in 3.2 innings of work on the road against the Yanks on May 5. It also doesn’t help that Hernandez is 2-5 with a 4.88 earned run average in 11 career starts at Camden Yards.
The Orioles have gone 13-20 over the last two seasons at home against teams from the AL West and 3-8 in the last 11 contests. The ‘under’ is 7-4 in those past 11 games in this spot.
Seattle is 4-9 on the road this season with the totals going 6-6-1. Although, the ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run.
Baltimore is 4-8 at home this season, with the totals posting a 5-5-2 mark.
The ‘under’ is 8-3-1 in the last 12 head-to-head meetings between these clubs.
Phillies (19-12, +269) at Rockies (15-16, -331) – 8:40 p.m. EDT
Philadelphia hasn’t had too much to worry about after going 7-3 during its 10-game homestand. That run has helped the Phils keep a two-game cushion over Washington in the National League East. The Phillies’ bats have been lively during this streak as they’ve averaged at least four runs in six of their 10 home tilts. Yet the ‘under’ has gone 7-3 in those spots. How does that happen? Good pitching, that’s how.
Nobody has pitched better on the Phillies’ staff than Roy Halladay (6-1, 1.45) in 2010. The former ace of the Blue Jays has taken the NL by storm. Halladay has lasted at least seven innings in each of his seven starts, going the distance in three of them. And he is 3-1 with a 1.69 ERA in his four starts away from Citizens Bank Park.
This will be Halladay’s first start at Coors Field, which would probably be a good reason to take a flyer on fading him in the high altitude. Then you find out that he grew up in the mean suburbs Denver, so that angle doesn’t really fly with him.
Colorado is happy to get back home this week after finishing off a nine-game road trip with a 4-5 mark. Of course, that doesn’t say much consider that the Rox are just 7-5 in their cozy confines on Blake Street.
Aaron Cook (1-3, 6.03) will get the nod in the second game of this series. If his last two starts are any indication, then the Rockies can expect Cook to give up five earned runs in at least five innings of work. That could help make the ‘over’ a solid wager in this contest since it has hit in three of Colorado’s last four home tests.
Philly fans should take heart in the fact that their club has won six of its last seven contests in Denver. The ‘over’ has cashed tickets in all seven battles.
As good as things might seem with Halladay on the mound, bettors should be wary. The Phillies have gone just 10-10 as road favorites against NL West foes, losing four straight in this role.
Colorado has gone 4-2 in its last six home dates against clubs out of the NL East.
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NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Diego (19-12) at San Francisco (18-12)
The top two teams in the N.L. West begin a three-game series at AT&T Park, where Barry Zito (5-0, 1.49 ERA) looks to continue his early-season dominance when he takes on the Padres’ Wade LeBlanc (2-0, 1.16) in a battle of southpaws.
San Diego began a six-game road trip by taking two of three in Houston over the weekend, failing to complete the sweep Sunday when it lost 4-3 in 11 innings. Despite that setback, the Padres have surged to the top of the division standings thanks to a 14-6 surge, going 6-3 on the highway during this stretch. On top of that, Bud Black’s team is on positive runs of 7-3 against N.L. West foes, 5-0 versus left-handed starters, 20-6 after a defeat, 20-8 against winning teams, 6-2 in series openers and 5-0 on Tuesday. The Padres’ lone negative: They’re 10-22 in their last 32 after a day off.
San Francisco capped a six-game East Coast road trip with Sunday’s 6-5 victory at the Mets. The Giants went 4-2 on the journey – the two losses coming in walk-off fashion in New York on Friday and Saturday – and they’ve won 10 of their last 15. Additionally, San Francisco is 14-5 in its last 19 at AT&T Park (10-5 this season), 18-6 in its last 24 series openers and 6-1 in its last seven after a day off. However, Bruce Bochy’s bunch has dropped five of seven divisional contests.
The Padres’ current 14-6 run includes a three-game home sweep of the Giants from April 19-21, with San Francisco managing a total of four runs in the three defeats. San Diego has won six of the last eight meetings dating to last September, but the home team is on a 16-5 roll in this rivalry. In fact, last year, the host won the first 11 head-to-head battles, and the Padres are 3-10 in their last 13 visits to AT&T Park.
The Padres are undefeated with LeBlanc starting this season, and going back to a 2-0 victory over the Giants on the next-to-last day of the 2009 season, San Diego has won five straight behind the left-hander. During this five-game stretch, LeBlanc has surrendered a total of three runs in 30 1/3 innings (0.89 ERA), walking just seven while striking out 28. Also, since the beginning of September 2009, LeBlanc has given up two runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts – a total of 11 runs in 59 1/3 innings in those 10 contests (1.67 ERA) – with San Diego going 8-2 overall (4-1 on the road).
Four of LeBlanc’s five starts this season have been at home, with his lone road effort being a 5-0 shutout victory in Cincinnati (he allowed three hits and two walks in six innings). Also, during his tremendous 10-start surge, LeBlanc has defeated the Giants twice – his only two career appearances against San Francisco – and he gave up a combined two runs and six hits with four walks and 11 strikeouts, pitching exactly seven innings in each contest.
While LeBlanc has been solid all season, so too has Zito, who has delivered six quality starts in as many tries. In his last four trips to the hill, he’s allowed just four runs in 30 1/3 innings (1.19 ERA) with 22 strikeouts against just eight walks. The former Cy Young winner has allowed two runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts, with the Giants going 6-1, including a 7-2 victory in San Diego in the final weekend of the 2009 season.
Behind Zito, the Giants are on additional positive stretches of 8-2 at home, 4-1 against the N.L. West, 4-0 on Tuesday and 5-0 when he starts a series. Zito is 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA in three home starts this season, but 3-6 with a 4.17 ERA in 16 games (15 starts) against San Diego. Last year, he faced the Padres six times, going 0-4 with a 5.08 ERA.
The Padres are on “under” streaks of 18-7-1 on the road, 10-4-1 versus the N.L. West, 20-7 after a loss, 5-0 on Tuesday, 3-1-1 in LeBlanc’s last five starts overall and 4-1-1 in LeBlanc’s last six against the N.L. West. However, the over has cashed in seven of LeBlanc’s last nine road outings.
San Francisco topped the total in its last four games on its just-concluded road trip and the over is also 6-2 in its last eight after a day off an 11-5-2 in its last 18 series openers. Conversely, the Giants still carry “under” trends of 9-1 at home, 7-0 in divisional games, 4-0 overall with Zito starting and 5-2-1 when Zito pitches at home.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under has cashed in five straight clashes overall, nine of 13 in San Francisco and five of seven when Zito faces the Padres at AT&T Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (21-10) at Detroit (18-14)
Two pitchers off to poor starts to the season square off at Comerica Park, as Javy Vazquez (1-3, 9.78 ERA) takes the ball for the Yankees for the first time in two weeks and matches up against the Tigers’ Rick Porcello (2-3, 7.50) in the second game of a four-game series.
Detroit held off the Yankees 5-4 to take Monday’s series opener and halt a 1-4 slide (all on the road). The Tigers have now won six in a row at home, and they’re 10-3 at Comerica Park this season and 46-22 in their last 68 home contests. Jim Leyland’s club has also won five of seven against the A.L. East and four straight at home against right-handed starters, but Detroit has dropped four of five Tuesday contests.
The Yankees have followed up a six-game winning streak with back-to-back losses, but they’ve still won nine of 12 overall, going 4-2 on the road during this stretch. The defending world champs are on additional surges of 40-17 overall, 40-15 against the A.L. Central, 62-23 against right-handed starters, 8-3 on the road versus righties and 16-5 on Tuesday.
Detroit beat New York 4-2 in last year’s first meeting (in Motown), but the Yankees came back to win the final five clashes by a combined score of 28-11. Despite Monday’s result, the visitor is still on a 7-3 roll in this rivalry, with the Yankees going 4-2 in their last six in Detroit.
Vazquez has been a disaster in his second tour of duty with the Yankees, giving up 25 runs in 23 innings and failing to get out of the sixth inning in any of his five starts. After consecutive losses in which he surrendered five runs in 3 2/3 innings at the Angels on April 25 and five runs in three innings against the White Sox on May 1, the Yankees bypassed his spot in the rotation last week.
Vazquez is 1-2 with a 9.82 ERA in three road contests this year (giving up five home runs in 14 2/3 innings), and he’s 6-7 with a 4.50 ERA in 13 career starts against the Tigers (2-5, 6.09 ERA in seven starts at Comerica Park).
Porcello went 14-9 with a 3.96 ERA in 31 starts as a rookie last year, but he’s struggled as a sophomore, posting just one quality start in six trips to the mound. Over his last four outings (three on the road), the right-hander has surrendered 22 runs (20 earned) in 19 innings (9.47 ERA). On Wednesday, he got tagged for five runs (three earned) in 5 1/3 innings of a 5-4 loss at Minnesota.
The Tigers have lost four of Porcello’s last five starts overall and four straight when he’s pitched on Tuesday, but they’re 7-2 in his last nine Comerica outings. In three home starts this season, Porcello is 2-0 despite a hefty 5.51 ERA. Also, he faced New York once in his rookie campaign in 2009, giving up six runs in 3 2/3 innings at home, losing 8-6.
New York is riding “over” streaks of 7-3 overall, 36-18-3 on the road, 10-4 versus winning teams, 5-2-1 versus right-handed starters and 4-1-1 on Tuesday. Additionally, going back to Vazquez’s first stint with New York in 2004, the Yankees have topped the total in seven of his last eight starts in Pinstripes, four of his last five on Tuesday, four of his last five against the A.L. Central and 10 straight against winning teams.
Meanwhile, the Tigers are on “over” runs of 4-1 against the A.L. East, 14-6-2 on Tuesday, 4-1 behind Porcello overall and 5-1-1 when Porcello pitches on Tuesday.
Finally, five of the last eight Yankees-Tigers contests in Motown have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
MLB RoundUp For 5/11
By Dan Bebe
National League
Reds (-135) @ Pirates with a total of 8.5
Brandon Phillips is 3-for-5 off Morton;
Garrett Jones is 5-for-8 off Cueto;
Andy LaRoche is 4-for-11 with 2 RBI off Cueto;
Andrew McCutchen is 4-for-8 with 2 HR off Cueto.
Considering Johnny Cueto is 6-2 against Pittsburgh, there seem to be a few guys mixed in that lineup that can clock him around a little. Cueto has been consistently poor this year, generally going 5 innings and allowing 3-4 runs. He hasn't really been horrible in any one start or good in any one start, just kind of not great in all of them. Morton is coming off his only decent start of the year, so maybe some confidence is building. Lean to Pittsburgh.
Nationals @ Mets (-135) with a total of 8
The entirety of the Nats lineup is 3-for-6 off Niese, so not much there;
Luis Castillo is 5-for-13 off Olsen with a HR and 4 RBI;
Jose Reyes is 15-for-39 off Olsen with a HR and 5 RBI;
Fernando Tatis is 4-for-11 off Olsen;
David Wright has 3 HR, and Jeff Francoeur has 2 HR off Olsen, since '05.
Scott Olsen is an ugly 1-6 against the Mets, but is 2-1 this year with an ERA in the mid-3's, so he's off to a nice start. Jon Niese is finally starting to pitch with a little gumption after all the hype. He had 3 outstanding starts in a row, fared a little worse his last time out against the Reds, and now faces a Nats team he's never encountered before. Probably a fair price, here, though the Mets are a decent deal at this somewhat low number.
Marlins @ Cubs (-115) with a total of N/A
Alfonso Soriano is 4-for-13 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Nolasco;
Ryan Theriot is 4-for-6 off Nolasco;
Derrek Lee and Mike Fontenot are each 2-for-6 with a HR off Nolasco.
Sadly, despite those 4 guys, the Nolasco is 2-1 against the Cubs with a 2.86 ERA, so they're not stringing anything together. Randy Wells has never seen the Marlins, but his start to 2010 is what I think we can categorize as "eh." This number is probably about fair, with the Cubs home field giving them just a tiny favorite price, but with Nolasco's nice stats against Chicago, and the Cubs hit-or-miss offense, the Marlins do look intriguing.
Braves (-120) @ Brewers with a total of 8.5
Nate McLouth is 8-for-20 with a HR off Bush;
Brian McCann is 0-for-8 off Bush;
Ryan Braun is 5-for-11 with 1 RBI off Hudson;
Jim Edmonds is 6-for-16 off Hudson with 1 HR and 4 RBI since '05;
Corey Hart is 6-for-17 off Hudson;
Rickie Weeks is 0-for-12 off Hudson.
So, it seems each team has a guy or two that can hit the other team's starter, and also one guy that could be a potential black hole in the lineup. Bush is another of those starters that adequately fills the back end of the rotation, but Hudson obviously has the talent to be a middle-of-the-rotation fixture. He's having a nice 2010 so far, but that Braves team behind him seems to find ways to lose. This line is pretty fair, and I'd look at Bush first, due to the Braves' struggles, but I might just be inclined to leave this one alone.
Astros @ Cardinals (-235) with a total of 8
Geoff Blum is 5-for-6 off Penny with 4 RBI since '05;
Carlos Lee is 4-for-8 off Penny with 2 RBI since '05;
Kaz Matsui is 5-for-13 off Penny since '05;
Cory Sullivan is batting .321 in 28 AB off Penny since '05, with 6 RBI;
Matt Holliday is 6-for-10 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Myers since '05;
Ryan Ludwick is 5-for-8 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Myers;
Skip Schumaker is 6-for-13 with 2 HR and 2 RBI off Myers.
A lot of offensive numbers here, no? I know Myers is off to a nice start and Penny is off to a tremendous start, but this total of 8 looks colossally high for two teams that aren't really hitting. I'll be curious to see where the money comes on this one, since I feel like this one is either going to be a 3-run total or an 11-run total. Let's keep this one on the watch list, though the side is a little crummy.
Phillies (-175) @ Rockies with a total of 8.5
Ross Gload is 5-for-7 with 3 RBI off Cook;
Ryan Howard is 6-for-17 with a HR and 3 RBI off Cook;
Chase Utley is 5-for-16 with 4 RBI off Cook;
Jayson Werth is 3-for-8 with 3 RBI off Cook;
Melvin Mora is batting .302 in 43 AB off Halladay since '05, with a HR and 7 RBI.
This line is accurate. Halladay could very well dominate the Rockies. He might just pitch a merely extraordinary game. He might not even pitch at his top level, but Cook's lifetime awful numbers against the Phils don't bode well for the Rockies in this one. Does that mean there's value on Colorado? Maybe, but they'd still have to win the game for it to matter.
Dodgers @ D'backs with a total of N/A
Garret Anderson is 12-for-33 off Haren with 2 HR and 5 RBI since '05;
Casey Blake is batting .344 off Haren since '05 with 2 RBI;
Andre Ethier is 10-for-27 with 2 HR and 5 RBI off Haren;
Matt Kemp is 6-for-19 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Haren;
Manny Ramirez is batting over .500 against Haren since '05 with 3 HR and 6 RBI.
We'll find out who's going for LA, but as you all may recall, we faded Haren the last time he faced the Dodgers, and got a little lucky with LA pulling out a walk-off win in Southern California. The Dodgers have struggled mightily on the road, but Haren just hasn't quite been himself this year, either. This could feature more runs than people expect, depending on the Dodgers starter, and we all know how LA hits righties.
Padres @ Giants (-145) with a total of 7
Will Venable is 4-for-10 off Zito.
This is a battle of the mighty offspeed pitch. LeBlanc, 2-0 with a 1.16 ERA this year, against Zito, 5-0 with a 1.49 ERA. That total of 7 is a pretty good indicator that runs will likely be at a premium. Of course, the -145 price on Zito makes the road dog look pretty good. Still, recent history has the Padres having some trouble with the Giants but I guess every game is a new adventure. I'd rather watch these two hurlers and just enjoy a 2 hour game.
American League
Yankees (-150) @ Tigers with a total of 10
Nick Swisher has a HR and 2 RBI in 2 AB against Porcello;
Miguel Cabrera is 8-for-19 with 3 HR and 7 RBI off Vazquez since '05;
Johnny Damon is 5-for-9 off Vazquez since '05 with 3 RBI.
If Rick Porcello could get his act together, this would be a great time to back the Tigers, but the kid is deep, deep in a sophomore slump. And then this total of 10 is already so high. Tough game, but I suppose if I had to lean anywhere, I'd lean to the dog and to the Over.
Mariners (-145) @ Orioles with a total of 7.5
Jose Lopez is 3-for-5 with a HR and 5 RBI off Hernandez;
Miguel Tejada is 4-for-10 with a HR and 2 RBI off Lee since '05.
The Mariners snapped an 8-game losing skid with their win in the home finale against the Angels, so can they take any momentum on the road, or was that one game offensive outburst a flash in the pan? The Orioles are starting to play a little better, so this isn't a sure thing, but the starting matchup looks about as lopsided as it can get. Line movement could make all the difference, here.
Blue Jays @ Red Sox (-165) with a total of 10.5
Adrian Beltre was 4-for-11 off Eveland before 2010;
J.D. Drew was 5-for-7 off Eveland before 2010;
Mike Lowell was 4-for-5 off Eveland before 2010, with 2 RBI;
Kevin Youkilis was 3-for-6 with a HR before 2010;
Jason Varitek was 2-for-4, but added some RBI earlier this year in Toronto.
Dana Eveland can't retire Red Sox, that's just how it seems to be. He's been so much better against most of the League, but that 18.24 ERA against the Sox is pretty glaring. Daisuke has been decent against the Royals during his time in the Majors, but awful so far this year. I'd look at the Over, even if it's the public play.
Athletics @ Rangers (-171) with a total of 9
Michael Young is 4-for-6 off Cahill with a HR and 2 RBI.
Cahill beat the Rangers a week ago, and he has pitched very well against Texas just about every time he's seen them. This is absolutely a live dog, even if Cahill is not at his best. The Rangers bullpen is a little slippery, and Lewis is generally a pretty high pitch count guy. It's a longshot, but despite the rematch angle, I think the A's have a little life, here.
White Sox @ Twins (-165) with a total of 9
Alexei Ramirez is 4-for-10 with 2 RBI off Slowey;
A.J. Pierzynski is 3-for-8 off Slowey;
Alex Rios is 4-for-11 with a HR and 2 RBI off Slowey;
Mark Teahen is 4-for-13 with a HR and 1 RBI off Slowey;
Joe Mauer is 6-for-18 off Garcia since '05.
Freddy Garcia has had slightly better-than-average success against the Twins, and getting this sort of dog price isn't half bad. In fact, one of Garcia's best starts this year came against the Twins. Slowey has been decent in most of his starts, never all that amazing, never all that bad, which makes me think the White Sox do have a chance. It's a longshot, but it's a value.
Indians @ Royals (-115) with a total of 9
Travis Hafner is 5-for-13 with 2 RBI off Bannister since '05;
Grady Sizemore is 7-for-20 with a HR off Bannister;
Yuny Betancourt is 3-for-9 off Westbrook.
Considering Westbrook has been pretty bad against most of the MLB most of his career, his 5-3, 2.65 ERA mark against the Royals is a little head-scratching. Bannister has been equally tough against the Indians. If these teams had reliable pens, I'd be all over the under in this one, but we could see 9 runs scored in the 7th inning alone. The line is pretty fair, considering Westbrook's success, so I'd look at the total.
Rays (-130) @ Angels with a total of 9
Jason Bartlett is 3-for-7 off Kazmir;
Mike Napoli is 3-for-5 off Niemann.
I'm honestly a little surprised to see the Rays as a favorite in this one, but Kazmir's 7+ ERA might have something to do with it. Niemann has been pitching very well so far this season, and the Rays, despite some offensive struggles, are still a very tough club. Niemann didn't pitch well against Anaheim in brief exposure, and Kazmir is now facing his former club. Something funny about this one, and I'd love to take the home dog, but this line might be expensive on Tampa for a reason.
Diamond Trends - Tuesday
By Vince Akins
Rays at Angels – The Rays are 6-0 since May 13, 2009 when Jeff Niemann starts on the road after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $680
Braves at Brewers - The Braves are 11-0 since July 02, 2009 as a favorite after a 5+ run win and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1100. The Brewers are 0-7 since June 10, 2009 when David Bush starts at home for a net profit of $770 when playing against. The Brewers are 0-6 since June 20, 2009 when David Bush starts as a dog after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $600 when playing against.
Astros at Cardinals – The Astros are 0-7 since August 29, 2009 on the road when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $715 when playing against.
Marlins at Cubs – The Marlins are 9-0 since April 17, 2009 when Ricky Nolasco starts on the road after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $1090.
Dodgers at Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks are 10-0 since April 27, 2009 when Dan Haren starts as a 140+ favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $1000.
Padres at Giants – The Padres are 6-0 since September 06, 2009 as a road dog when they won the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $880. The Giants are 8-0 since May 01, 2009 at home after a win in which they had more than ten team-left-on-base for a net profit of $800. The Giants are 7-0 since August 18, 2009 as a 140+ favorite and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $700. The Giants are 6-0 since April 22, 2009 when Barry Zito starts vs a team that won their starters last three starts for a net profit of $805.
Nationals at Mets – The Nationals are 4-0 since June 18, 2009 as a road dog after scoring 3 runs or less and winning and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $750. The Nationals are 4-0 since April 29, 2009 when Scott Olsen starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $600. The Mets are 7-0 since April 18, 2009 as a 140+ favorite when they lost by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $700.
Mariners at Orioles – The Mariners are 0-6 since August 06, 2009 on the road after a win in which they had 12+ hits for a net profit of $610 when playing against. The Orioles are 6-0 since May 04, 2009 after a loss in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $765. The Orioles are 0-8 since August 27, 2009 when David Hernandez starts vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $840 when playing against.
Reds at Pirates – The Pirates are 0-9 since June 20, 2009 vs a team that has won at least their last three games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Pirates are 0-7 since July 28, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Pirates are 0-7 since July 28, 2009 when Charlie Morton starts as a dog after the team lost their last two games for a net profit of $700 when playing against.
Athletics at Rangers – The Athletics are 6-0 since June 11, 2009 when Trevor Cahill starts vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $670. The Athletics are 0-8 since May 18, 2009 as a dog vs a team that has won at least their last two games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Rangers are 7-0 since September 21, 2009 as a favorite and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $700.
Blue Jays at Red Sox – The Red Sox are 1-6 since September 28, 2009 when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $660 when playing against.
Phillies at Rockies – The Phillies are 5-0 since April 11, 2010 when Roy Halladay starts as a favorite vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $500
Indians at Royals – The Indians are 0-9 since September 01, 2009 on the road and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Indians are 0-7 since May 02, 2009 on the road after a win in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $715 when playing against. The Royals are 0-6 since July 02, 2009 at home after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Royals are 0-6 since May 29, 2009 when Brian Bannister starts in the first game of a series for a net profit of $625 when playing against.
Yankees at Tigers – The Yankees are 7-0 since June 26, 2009 as a 140+ favorite when they lost by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $700. The Tigers are 0-7 since July 22, 2009 as a dog after a win in which they drew 5+ walks for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Tigers are 7-0 since May 05, 2009 when Rick Porcello starts at home after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $725
White Sox at Twins – The Twins are 9-0 since May 01, 2009 as a favorite after a win in which they had 12+ hits and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $900
Tips and Trends
New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers
Yankees (-150, O/U 9.5): New York has lost back to back games, as they are now 21-10 on the year. Despite their great overall record to start the season, the Yankees are still trailing Tampa Bay in the competitive American League East. The Yankees are 11-8 on the road this season. P Javier Vazquez will get take the mound tonight, trying to kickstart a poor start to his season. Vazquez is 1-3 this season, as the Yankees have actually only won 1 of his 5 starts this season, making Vazquez responsible for nearly half of the Yankees losses this season. Vazquez has an ERA of 9.78 and a WHIP of 2.04 to start the year. The Yankees are 48-15 in their last 63 games as the listed favorite. The Yankees are 41-15 in their last 56 vs. a team with a winning record. The Yankees are also 0-4 in Vazquez's last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Yankees are 5-1 last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 12-3-1 last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - C Jorge Posada (calf) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5
Tigers: Detroit had a dramatic win against the Yankees yesterday, as Johnny Damon stepped up big for the Tigers in a 5-4 victory. Detroit is 18-14 on the season, placing them 2nd in the AL Central. Detroit is an impressive 10-3 at home this season. The Tigers are 6-1 when facing a total of 9-9.5 in home games this season. Detroit will send Rick Porcello to the mound tonight against the Yankees. Porcello is 2-3 this season, with an ERA of 7.50 and a WHIP of 1.87. Porcello has given up 46 hits spanning 30 innings, so it's quite evident that he is struggling this season. The Tigers are 4-1 in Porcello's last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. However, the Tigers are only 0-4 in Porcellos last 4 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Tigers are 6-1 last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600.
Under is 6-0-1 last 7 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.
Key Injuries - LF Carlos Guillen (hamstring) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (Side of the Day)