Tuesday Double Play
By Judd Hall
Bettors that were looking for some variety on the diamond didn’t find it on Monday night. Luckily for them, 11 of those series will be getting underway on Tuesday night. That gives us plenty of action to sweat out. Let’s look at a game that pits some division leaders against one another, while the other showdown has two clubs look to keep pace with the Phillies.
Braves (23-21, -161) at Marlins (23-22, -125) – 7:10 p.m. EDT
Atlanta might have earned some wins with some good ol’ fashioned luck last week, but they’ve played quite well. The Braves have won 10 of their last 13 games. That surge was good enough to push them 3 ½-games behind Philadelphia for first place in the National League East.
The Braves are going through a tough stretch where they will be playing on the road for 17 of their next 23 contests. That can’t bode all that well for them since they are 10-15 away from Turner Field right now. Of course, they are coming into this game having taken two of three at PNC Park against the Pirates to improve its road mark to 6-2 in its last eight.
Kenshin Kawakami (0-6, 4.98) will get the start on Tuesday night for Bobby Cox’s crew. While his stats for the season stink, it would appear that Kawakami is indeed turning the corner. The Japanese hurler has tossed 9.1 innings in his last two starts, striking out 12 batters and walking just three. But more importantly, the Braves won both of those outings.
Florida’s coming home after an utterly forgettable 2-3 road trip. The Marlins did finish up with a 13-0 pimpslapping of the White Sox last Sunday. If you take that outcome out of its last five matches, Florida had given up at least four runs in three of those other four tilts.
The Marlins will turn to Anibal Sanchez (3-2, 3.28) to help themselves string wins together. Not a bad guy to have toeing the slab right now if you’re the Fish. Sanchez has lasted seven innings in his past two starts, giving up two earned runs on eight hits as Florida won both appearances.
Most betting outlets have listed the Fish as $1.25 home favorites (risk $125 to win $100) with a total of 8 ½.
Florida is just 12-10 for the season at Sun Life Stadium with the ‘over’ going 13-7-2. In the Marlins past six home tests, they are 5-1.
Another thing to keep in mind for the Marlins is that they are 5-1 as home favorites against NL East foes.
Atlanta hasn’t played great on the road against clubs from the NL East, evidenced by a 2-7 mark during the 2010 campaign. The ‘under’ is 7-1-1 in those games as well.
Cardinals (26-19, -268) at Padres (26-18, +993) – 10:05 p.m. EDT
The Cardinals are back in the driver’s seat for the NL Central after winning on Sunday against Los Angeles and the Reds falling to Cleveland on the same day. St. Louis has certainly responded after losing its mid-May series in Cincy by going 5-2 in its last seven contests.
St. Louis will entrust Adam Wainwright (6-2, 2.49) to keep a hold on first place for them. He tossed seven strong innings of six-hit ball while giving up two earned runs in a 4-2 win over the Marlins on May 20. Wainwright hasn’t pitched terrible on the road recently, tossing at least six innings and giving up no more than four earned runs in his last four games outside of Busch Stadium. The Cardinals’ offense hasn’t shown up for him in those road contests as they scored just four or fewer runs as they’re 1-3 in Wainwright’s last four road starts.
The Padres are back on track with two straight wins to keep a one-game cushion over San Francisco in the NL West. It also doesn’t hurt that San Diego is still getting great starting pitching (6.0 innings per start, 3.03 ERA) to keep this run going.
San Diego has Jon Garland (5-2, 2.38) set to start this series for them. Garland has been a solid producer in his first season with the Pads. And they’ve helped pay gamblers off handsomely when their newest pitcher gets on the mound, having won six of his last seven starts.
As good as Garland has fared this season, he’s not done well against the Cards during his career. In three career starts against St. Louis, he has gone 0-3 with a 7.36 earned run average. He’s only done worse against the Phils and Braves during his 12 years in the big leagues.
Perhaps the past failures of Garland is why the oddsmakers have made St. Louis a $1.25 road favorite with a total of 6 ½.
San Diego has gone just 6-5 when posted as a road underdog this season, losing two of its last three in this spot. The ‘under’ is 4-2 in the past six matches under these criteria.
The Cardinals are 10-8 as road faves in 2010 with the ‘under’ going 12-6. Tighten those numbers up to games against the NL West and St. Louis is 3-1 with the ‘under’ showing a similar mark.
vegasinsider.com
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (26-19) at San Diego (26-18)
Two teams clinging to first place in their respective divisions kick off a three-game series at Petco Park, with Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright (6-2, 2.49 ERA) set to oppose the Padres’ Jon Garland (5-2, 2.38).
St. Louis was off Monday after taking two of three from the Angels over the weekend, capped by Sunday’s come-from-behind 6-5, 12-inning victory. The Cardinals, who are tied with the Reds for first place in the N.L. Central, followed up a 3-9 slump by going 5-2 on their just-completed seven-game homestand. Tony LaRussa’s troops are also 35-16 in their last 51 series openers. However, they’ve lost six of nine on the road and are in additional ruts of 2-6 after a victory, 1-5 on the road against right-handed starters and 3-7 versus the N.L. West.
San Diego returns home from a successful 3-2 road trip, knocking off Seattle on Saturday (2-1) and Sunday (8-1) before resting yesterday. The Padres, who lead the Dodgers by one game in the N.L. West, are still just 4-6 in their last 10 games, and they’ve lost six of seven at Petco overall and six of seven at home against right-handed starters. On a positive note, San Diego is on surges of 10-3 against the N.L. Central, 20-8 versus winning teams, 6-1 on Tuesday, 9-4 in series openers and 4-0 overall against righties.
The Cardinals have owned this rivalry over the past several years, going 60-21 in the last 81 meetings, including 11-1 in the last 12. St. Louis has also won four of the last five battles in San Diego, but the home team is still 11-5 in the last 16 series clashes.
Wainwright gave up two first-inning runs to the Marlins on Thursday but shut them out from there, yielding six hits and three walks in seven innings of a 4-2 victory. Going back to the middle of last June, Wainwright has had 26 quality starts in his last 28 trips to the mound, yielding two earned runs or fewer in 25 of those 28 contests (including 10 of the last 12). However, the right-hander walked three in each of his last two outings after going 14 straight starts without issuing more than two free passes.
Wainwright is 2-2 with a 2.83 ERA on the road, and the Cardinals have won 20 of his last 26 on the highway. Also, behind the 6-foot-7 pitcher, St. Louis is on surges of 39-17 overall, 9-3 on Tuesday, 26-8 versus opponents with a winning record and 6-1 when he starts a series. Finally, Wainwright’s only start against the Padres came at home last season, and he scattered eight hits in seven scoreless innings en route to a 9-2 victory.
Garland is coming off his worst start of the season, as he allowed four runs on nine hits in five innings at Los Angeles on Wednesday, but San Diego’s offense caught fire and Garland ended up rolling to a 10-5 victory. Prior to Wednesday, Garland had delivered five straight quality starts, giving up just four total runs in 33 innings (1.09 ERA). The Padres are 6-1 in the right-hander’s last seven starts (3-1 at home).
Garland is 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA in four home games, yielding just three earned runs in 25 innings. Last year when he was with Arizona, Garland faced the Cardinals twice and went 0-2 with an 8.38 ERA, dropping to 0-3 with a 7.36 ERA all-time against St. Louis.
St. Louis is on a slew of “under” runs, including 10-3 on the road, 6-2 against the N.L. West, 34-16-1 against winning teams, 12-2 in series openers and 47-23-3 after a victory. Also, the under is 9-4-1 in Wainwright’s last 14 road starts and 4-1 in his last five Tuesday efforts. Similarly, the Padres are on “under” streaks of 11-4-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 5-1 versus the N.L. Central, 6-1 on Tuesday, 32-15-4 against right-handed starters, 22-8-1 against winning teams and 4-0 when Garland comes off five days of rest.
These teams have topped the total in seven of their last 10 meetings overall, but the under is 8-3-1 in the last 12 at Petco.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (26-18) at Minnesota (26-18)
The suddenly slumping Yankees continue a six-game road trip with their first-ever visit to Target Field, as A.J. Burnett (4-2, 3.86) takes the ball for the visitors and the Twins counter with Scott Baker (4-4, 4.88).
New York edged the Mets 2-1 in Friday’s opener of the Subway Series at Citi Field, but dropped the final two contests by scores of 5-3 and 6-4. The Yankees have followed up a six-game winning streak by losing 10 of their last 15 games, including six of eight on the road, to fall 5½ games back of Tampa Bay in the A.L. East standings. Still, the defending champs are on several positive runs, including 102-49 overall, 39-15 against the A.L. Central, 6-2 in series openers, 7-2 on Tuesday, 65-29 against right-handed starters and 45-21 when coming off a defeat.
Minnesota failed to complete a three-game interleague sweep of the Brewers last weekend, falling 4-3 on Sunday after winning the first two games 15-3 and 8-7 (in 12 innings). The Twins are just 5-7 in their last 12 games – including losing two of three to the Yankees in the Bronx – but they’ve taken a liking to their new stadium going 14-7 through 21 games at Target Field (5-2 last seven). Going back to their days in the Metrodome, the Twins have won 24 of 33 home games, and they’re also on runs of 22-8 in series openers, 12-5 after a loss and 20-6 on Tuesday. On the flip side, they’ve lost 47 of 69 to A.L. East opponents and seven of nine after a day off.
Not only did the Twins lose two of three in New York earlier this month, but they’re 17-52 in the last 69 meetings (playoffs included). Last year, the Yankees went 4-0 in Minnesota, including a 4-1 victory to finish off a sweep of the best-of-5 divisional playoff series.
Five days after beating the Twins 8-4 at home – yielding two earned runs in 6 2/3 innings – Burnett got pounded 10-6 by the Rays on Wednesday, allowing six runs on nine hits and four walks in 6 2/3 innings. Still, with Burnett on the bump, New York is on upticks of 12-5 overall, 7-1 against the A.L. Central, 4-0 on Tuesday and 8-3 versus winning teams.
Burnett is 2-1 with a 4.99 ERA in five road starts this year. However, with that 8-4 home win on May 14, the Yankees are now 4-0 in Burnett’s four starts against the Twins since he signed with New York prior to the 2009 season. Going back to his time in Toronto in 2008, Burnett has led his teams to five straight wins over Minnesota, giving up just 10 runs in 38 1/3 innings (2.35 ERA).
Baker was a tough-luck 3-2 loser at Boston on Wednesday, giving up all three runs in six innings. However, the right-hander has three quality starts in four home appearances this year, going 3-1 with a 3.90 ERA. In fact, Minnesota is 10-2 in Baker’s last 12 home starts, as well as 4-0 in his last four on Tuesday.
The Twins have lost eight of Baker’s last 10 contests against A.L. East foes, and that includes Baker’s 8-4 loss to Burnett at Yankee Stadium 11 days ago, yielding five runs on 10 hits in six innings. Since winning his first two career starts against New York (two runs allowed in 12 innings), Baker has lost his last two (10 runs allowed in nine innings). He does have a strong 21-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio versus the Yanks.
New York sports “over” trends of 6-1 overall, 8-1-1 after a day off, 5-0 against right-handed starters, 10-4-1 in series openers, 9-2 in Burnett’s last 11 starts overall and 7-1 in his last eight road outings. Conversely, the under is 5-2 in the Yankees’ last seven road games, 6-1 in their last seven against the Central Division and 6-2 in Burnett’s last eight starts against the Central.
Minnesota is on “under” tears of 8-3 at home, 23-7-3 against the A.L. East, 5-2-2 after a day off, 24-7-2 following a loss, 5-1 on Tuesday and 4-1 in Baker’s last five starts against the A.L. East. However, the over is 7-3-2 in Baker’s last 12 starts overall, 3-1-1 in his last five at home, 8-2-1 in his last 11 when starting a series and 16-5-2 in his last 23 when coming off five days of rest.
The under has cashed in five of the last six Twins-Yankees battles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
MLB RoundUp For 5/25
By Dan Bebe
National League
Braves @ Marlins (-139) with a total of 9
Brian McCann is 5-for-16 with a HR and 5 RBI off Sanchez;
Jorge Cantu is 3-for-8 with 1 RBI off Kawakami;
Chris Coghlan is 4-for-7 off Kawakami;
Dan Uggla is 3-for-6 with a HR and 2 RBI off Kawakami.
Kenshin Kawakami is 1-3 with a 5.89 ERA against the Marlins, and a perfectly bad 0-6 this year, overall. Sanchez is 3-2 this season, but 3-5 in his career against Atlanta, so he has had a few issues with the Braves. I think, and barring some exceptions, when a players' career numbers against a particular team parallel his season numbers against the League, as is the case with Kawakami, here, that kind of diminishes the value. I think this line is fair, so I'm passing.
Phillies (-125) @ Mets with a total of 9
Placido Polanco is 4-for-11 with 2 RBI off Dickey;
Henry Blanco was 5-for-8 off Moyer prior to 2010;
David Wright is batting over .400 off Moyer in nearly 50 AB with 3 HR and 11 RBI, since '05;
Fernando Tatis is batting .364 with a HR and 4 RBI off Moyer.
Jamie Moyer faced the Mets already once this year and gave up 5 runs in 6 innings, but won the game, as his team provided him with 11 runs of support. That was a weird game, in that Moyer wasn't necessarily pitching well, but Charlie Manuel left him out there since there was no reason to yank a starter when you're up that much. That being said, Moyer hasn't been a total ray of sunshine against the Mets, and New York continues to play much, much better at home, taking 2 of 3 from the Yanks over the weekend. If the opponent was someone less interesting than the Phils, I'd say the Mets would be in a letdown spot, but against a division rival, the energy should still be good. Slight lean to NY.
Pirates @ Reds (-175) with a total of 9
Brandon Phillips is batting .412 with 4 HR and 9 RBI off Maholm in his last 34 AB;
Scott Rolen was 4-for-12 off Maholm coming into 2010.
This line is too steep to play the favorite, flat out, and in my opinion, Leake has been pitching too well to play the underdog. This is one of those games we talk about quite often where a volume bettor might grab the dog, since Maholm is 5-4 against Cincinnati with a 3.95 ERA in his career, and that's good enough to warrant getting +165, but for us, we're trying to pick a couple winners, and this doesn't make the cut.
Dodgers @ Cubs (-110) with a total of N/A
Ronnie Belliard is 3-for-5 off Dempster;
Jeff Baker is 4-for-8 with a HR and 2 RBI off Kershaw.
This is an interesting game, if only because the Dodgers, historically, don't seem to play their best baseball against the Cubbies. I don't know if it's because they're used to having a strong fan base in most cities or what, but that's just how it seems to be. Ryan Dempster is a 6-3, 2.75 ERA hurler against LA, so in terms of times to fade the hot Dodgers, this doesn't seem like the day. I'd rather try to find a game to back LA against another public darling, but not today. Pass.
Astros @ Brewers (-156) with a total of 9.5
Geoff Blum is 2-for-2 with 4 RBI off Wolf;
Humberto Quintero is 4-for-6 with a HR off Wolf;
Ryan Braun is 4-for-5 off Paulino;
Prince Fielder is 3-for-7 with a HR and 3 RBI off Paulino;
Corey Hart is 4-for-8 with 2 HR and 6 RBI off Paulino.
For as bad as Paulino has been against the League, he's been that much worse against Milwaukee. Randy Wolf has not pitched well, but when you play for a bad team, it can get contagious. There aren't many strong numbers against Wolf on the Astros, despite his 4-5 career record against them. Berkman hasn't hit him well, Feliz, Keppinger, Pence, they have all failed against Wolf. I hate to say it, but even at this steep price, I like the Brewers. If only Milwaukee could win a game at home...
Diamondbacks @ Rockies (-138) with a total of 9.5
This game is intriguing for a couple of reasons. First, the Diamondbacks, with all those power bats, generally play pretty well at Coors Field in Denver. Second, Chacin, who came storming onto the scene, has not pitched quite as well his last 2 times out. He allowed 6 runs to the Nats 2 starts back, then allowed 3 to the weak-hitting Cubbies, but walked 5 so it could have been much worse. Starting at home is going to be trouble for him, I believe. Kennedy, meanwhile, has been the rock of the D'backs rotation, posting a better ERA than perennial All-Star Dan Haren. He hasn't faced Colorado yet, and a first start at Coors is going to be trouble, but his strike-throwing is going to be his ultimate tool in a place where hits will happen. Lean to D'backs.
Cardinals (-135) @ Padres with a total of 6
Yadier Molina is 5-for-5 with 2 RBI off Garland;
Albert Pujols is 2-for-5 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Garland;
Yorvit Torrealba is 2-for-4 off Wainwright.
Adam Wainwright is 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA against the Padres, though it's tough to say there's any value on one of the best pitchers in baseball. A-Dub is 6-2 with a 2.49 ERA this season. Garland, interestingly, is 5-2 with a 2.38 ERA this year, and is coming off a bit of a rough start against the Dodgers, though he did get a win, somehow. He is, unfortunately, 0-3 with a 7.36 ERA against the Cardinals, so that's definitely a point of concern. I hate to pay (-135) for a team that hasn't really been hitting that well (prior to their series with the Halos, that is), but Garland might be starting to regress to his career numbers, and Wainwright is just flat-out good. Lean to the Cards.
Nationals @ Giants (-112) with a total of 8.5
Aubrey Huff is 4-for-9 with a HR off Hernandez since '05;
Bengie Molina is batting .296 off Hernandez since '05 with 3 HR and 5 RBI;
Edgar Renteria is 4-for-9 off Hernandez since '05;
Aaron Rowand is 9-for-18 with 2 HR and 2 RBI off Livan since '05;
Freddy Sanchez is 3-for-8 off Hernandez;
Pablo Sandoval is 5-for-14 with a HR and 4 RBI off Hernandez;
Nate Schierholtz is 4-for-8 off Livan.
Yikes! This is a troublesome game for me. As a player-matchup guy, you have to love those numbers the Giants have posted against Livan Hernandez throughout his career, and it's pretty clear why the Giants are a favorite in this one. Wellemeyer has actually had success against the Nats, too. However, Wellemeyer has not pitched well this year, and Livan has rediscovered his youth, and the Giants are in a colossal offensive slump, scoring just 1 run in 3 games across the Bay Bridge. I'd love to find a way to back the Giants, but this one is only a medium lean because of recent trends for both teams and pitchers.
American League
White Sox (-130) @ Indians with a total of 8.5
These teams have already seen plenty of one another this season, so no fresh faces, really. Peavy has faced Cleveland twice, giving up 3 runs over 5 innings in his season-opening start, a loss, then came back and pitched better, allowing just 2 runs in 7.1 frames of a win a couple weeks later. He's coming off a poor start against the Angels, though, after a nice stretch where Peavy got his ERA back down to a reasonable number. Talbot, too, is coming off a bad start, where he allowed 6 runs to the Royals. Talbot faced the White Sox earlier this year, and threw a complete game, 1-run gem. Tough call, here, with both guys coming off bad starts. I'd rather not risk it that they follow it up with another. Pass.
Athletics (-115) @ Orioles with a total of 8
Coco Crisp is 7-for-20 off Guthrie;
Jack Cust is 3-for-9 with a HR and 3 RBI off Guthrie;
Mark Ellis is 4-for-11 with 3 RBI off Guthrie;
Gabe Gross is 3-for-7 off Guthrie;
Kurt Suzuki is 4-for-7 with a HR and 3 RBI off Guthrie;
Garrett Atkins is 3-for-3 off Braden.
The most important stat in this game isn't coming from the pitchers, necessarily. Nick Markakis and Adam Jones, two guys the Orioles lean on pretty heavily to get anything done offensively, are a combined 0-for-19 off Braden. Yikes. Braden, not surprisingly, is 5-1 against the O's with a 1.57 ERA. Guthrie has been better this year than last, posting a 3.86 ERA. He's just 1-3 with a 5.23 ERA against Oakland, and with the way the A's have been pitching, there's a reason they're the road faves against a very weak Baltimore club. The concern? Guthrie has been pitching very, very well, and this one could be exceedingly low scoring. Slight lean to Oakland.
Red Sox @ Rays (-120) with a total of 8
We've gone through the offensive-vs.-pitcher numbers for these guys before, so I'm going to forgo re-typing all the strong players and just go to previous meetings. Each of these guys has faced the other team once this year, and each has pitched pretty poorly. Lester allowed 7 runs in 6 innings, but that appeared to be the start where Lester decided to flip the switch. Since that April 18 outing, Lester has been a complete beast. Shields, meanwhile, just keeps going out there and pitching well, and that start against the Sox was undoubtedly his worst of the season, giving up 4 runs in a shorter effort. I almost wish Boston didn't take the opener, so we could get a little more value, but with 2 strong starters going, I have to lean to the team playing more consistently on offense, and amazingly, that's the Sox right now.
Yankees (-130) @ Twins with a total of 10
Mark Teixeira was 4-for-7 with a HR off Baker before 2010;
Marcus Thames has 4 HR off Baker since '05;
Joe Mauer was 5-for-13 off Burnett before 2010.
This one has two angles at play. One, Burnett is coming off a miserable start, so how much do we want to bank on him bouncing back? Two, the Twins finally beat the Yankees, but it took a miraculous grand slam off Mariano Rivera to get it done. Does that open the floodgates, or was that a one-time thing? Is the monkey off Minnesota's back? I'd rather watch game one of this set and then check in again before game two.
Rangers (-140) @ Royals with a total of 10
Nelson Cruz is 6-for-8 with a HR and 3 RBI off Meche;
Michael Young is 12-for-24 off Meche with a HR and 6 RBI.
Let's not worry a ton about the historical numbers, since Meche has had at least 5 bad starts against almost every team in the AL, at this point. What's more important is that Meche is actually on a bit of a pitching hot streak, and it started with an 8-inning, 3-run effort against these Rangers. It was a losing cause, but Meche has been serviceable since. Harden remains a master of throwing 100 pitches in 4 innings, but is 2-0 with a 1.78 ERA against the Royals in just a handful of starts. I think the value here is with the home dog, but Texas is playing well, and Meche could implode at a moment's notice. Pass.
Blue Jays (-115) @ Angels with a total of 8
Vernon Wells is 5-for-14 with 2 RBI off Santana prior to 2010.
Ervin Santana tossed an absolute gem against these Jays earlier this year, going 9 strong innings and allowing just a single tally in a game the Angels won, over the very same Ricky Romero, 3-1. You guys know how I feel about rematches. Romero has been great whenever he's faced the Angels, and Santana really hadn't been all that amazing against Toronto before turning into a wizard against them earlier this year. I WOULD lean to Toronto based on my rematch theory, but Santana has just been throwing too well almost every time. If anything, I'd look at the Under, but that looks a little fishy, too. Most likely a pass, but this one is on my radar, and just off the list of leans. Maybe a "near-lean"?
Tigers (-125) @ Mariners with a total of 6.5
Johnny Damon is 3-for-7 off Fister;
Milton Bradley is 3-for-6 off Verlander;
Ichiro is 11-for-30 with a HR and 5 RBI.
Who would have thought that Doug Fister would be among the MLB elite in ERA at the end of May? Very impressive, I say. He's still holding on to the 1's with a 1.96 mark, and Verlander, well, we all know what he can do. There's no Miguel Cabrera in this series, so the Tigers are going to need to get a lot of offense from somewhere else, and that total of 6.5 is fairly reflective of that, and the two pitchers involved. There's not a ton of value, here, as this one could be decided late, and in that case, you have to like the Tigers' pen, but, hm, I dunno, just not enough pushing me in either direction.
Tuesday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Anibal Sanchez, Florida Marlins
Sometimes mistakenly thought as a throw-in to the Josh Beckett-Hanley Ramirez trade, Anibal Sanchez is starting to pitch again like the hurler who was one of the Red Sox’s top prospects.
He’s won two straight decisions and hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his last six starts.
"This is the most consistency that I've seen coming out of him," Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez told the reporters after Sanchez threw a career-high 119 pitches in 5-1 win over the Cardinals last Wednesday. "That's good, that's really good."
It’s a good thing for Florida backers too.
Ian Kennedy, Arizona Diamondbacks
Not all pitchers can cut it in the Big Apple. Former Yankee prospect Ian Kennedy sure does seem to be happy to be out of New York. The 25-year-old righty has been one of the few bright spots for Arizona this season.
Kennedy sports a tidy 3-1 strikeout to walk ratio along with a modest 3.24 ERA, and appears to be getting even better as the season progresses. He struck out a career-high nine batters and allowed just one run in eight of innings of work last week against the Giants.
Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds
It all must seem pretty easy right now for Reds rookie pitcher Mike Leake. The 22-year-old righty became the first hurler since 1995 to go straight from the draft to a big league roster.
And it looks like the Reds were right to allow Leake to skip minor league ball. He’s yet to allow more than five runs in a start and his control, which was a problem early on, is beginning to come around.
The Reds are 8-2 in Leake’s 10 trips to the bump and oddsmakers have pegged the youngster as a favorite in just two of those outings.
Slumping
Randy Wolf, Milwaukee Brewers
We should have all known Randy Wolf was destined to fail as soon as he signed on the dotted line to pitch for the Brewers. You see, Milwaukee is where free agent pitchers go to die. Just ask Jeff Suppan.
After a miraculous campaign with the Dodgers in 2009, Wolf decided to leave Los Angeles’ spacious ballpark for Milwaukee’s bandbox home field. The results have been predictable.
Wolf is 3-4 with an ERA north of 5.00 and opposing hitters are batting .325 against the southpaw. Wolf surrendered six runs in each of his last two appearances and the Brew Crew are 1-4 in his last five trips to the mound.
Tips and Trends
St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres
Cardinals (-135, O/U 6.5): St. Louis has regained control of the National League Central after winning 5 of their last 7 games. The Cardinals are 26-19 overall this season, a half game ahead of the Reds in their division. St. Louis is averaging 6.5 runs per game over their past 4 contests, a huge reason for their recent success. The Cardinals are 11-11 on the road this season as they come to San Diego. St. Louis will send one of their 2 aces to the mound today, right-hander Adam Wainwright. Wainwright is 6-2 this year with an ERA of 2.49 and a WHIP of 1.02. Wainwright has already pitched 65 innings in his 9 starts overall this season, proof that he pitches deep into games. The Cardinals are 1-5 in their last 6 road games against a right-handed starter. St. Louis is 6-1 in Wainwrights last 7 starts during game 1 of a series. The Cardinals are 20-6 in Wainwrights last 26 road starts. St. Louis is 0-4 in Wainwrights last 4 road starts against a team with a winning record.
Cardinals are 3-7 last 10 against the National League West.
Under is 10-3 last 13 road games.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)
Padres: San Diego is like the little engine that could, as they simply continue to compete at the highest level despite one of the lowest payrolls in baseball. The Padres are 26-18 this year, leading the National League West, and only 1 game behind Philadelphia for the best record in the entire National League. San Diego won their inter-league series over the weekend with the Mariners. San Diego returns home, where they are 12-9 this season. P Jon Garland will take the mound tonight, as he looks to continue his superb season. Garland is 5-2 this year, with an ERA of 2.38 and a WHIP of 1.36. The Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 games against a right-handed starter. San Diego is 15-40 in their last 55 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. San Diego is 4-0 in Garlands last 4 starts against a team with a winning record. The Padres are 6-1 in Garlands last 7 starts overall.
Padres are 20-8 last 28 against a team with a winning record.
Under is 21-8 last 29 home games against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - LF Kyle Blanks (elbow) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 2
Diamond Trends - Tuesday
By Vince Akins
Blue Jays at Angels – The Blue Jays are 6-0 since April 08, 2010 on the road after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $690. The Blue Jays are 0-6 since August 12, 2009 when Ricky Romero starts as a dog after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $600 when playing against.
Astros at Brewers – The Astros are 0-7 since April 10, 2009 as a dog after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Astros are 0-7 since April 28, 2010 when they are off a loss in which they held the lead for a net profit of $715 when playing against. The Brewers are 0-8 since May 22, 2009 after a one run win and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $800 when playing against.
Dodgers at Cubs – The Dodgers are 0-5 since July 24, 2009 when Clayton Kershaw starts vs a team that has won at least their last two games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $835 when playing against. The League is 6-0 since May 17, 2010 at home when they are off two one-run wins for a net profit of $600.
Nationals at Giants – The Nationals are 0-7 since May 22, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem vs a team that has lost at least their last three games for a net profit of $720 when playing against. The Giants are 7-0 since June 12, 2009 at home after a loss in which they were shut out in the first 6 innings and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $740.
White Sox at Indians – The White Sox are 0-6 since April 15, 2009 on the road after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $615 when playing against. The Indians are 5-0 since April 07, 2010 after a 5+ run loss and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $700. The Indians are 4-0 since April 16, 2010 when Mitch Talbot starts as a dog for a net profit of $590
Tigers at Mariners – The Tigers are 7-0 since May 03, 2009 when Justin Verlander starts as a favorite in May for a net profit of $700. The Mariners are 0-7 since April 12, 2010 at home after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $780 when playing against.
Braves at Marlins – The Braves are 0-5 since April 11, 2010 when Kenshin Kawakami starts on the road vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $520 when playing against. The Marlins are 5-0 since September 12, 2009 when Anibal Sanchez starts as a favorite after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $500
Phillies at Mets – The League is 0-11 since April 09, 2010 as a home dog when they are off two wins in which they never trailed for a net profit of $1100 when playing against.
Athletics at Orioles – The Athletics are 7-0 since August 05, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $735. The Athletics are 5-0 since May 17, 2010 vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $510The Orioles are 5-0 since April 26, 2009 when they are off two one-run losses for a net profit of $740. .
Cardinals at Padres – The Cardinals are 8-0 since April 10, 2009 as a favorite when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $800. The Cardinals are 7-0 since August 09, 2009 as a road favorite after a win in which they drew 5+ walks for a net profit of $700.
Red Sox at Rays – The Rays are 6-0 since April 17, 2009 when James Shields starts as a home favorite after a quality start on the road for a net profit of $600
Pirates at Reds – The Reds are 5-0 since April 11, 2010 when Mike Leake starts at home for a net profit of $555.
Diamondbacks at Rockies – The Diamondbacks are 5-0 since May 15, 2010 after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $610. The Rockies are 0-6 since April 10, 2010 after a win in which they had 12+ hits for a net profit of $840 when playing against.
Rangers at Royals – The Rangers are 0-4 since August 18, 2009 as a 140+ favorite when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $635 when playing against. The Royals are 0-8 since June 19, 2009 at home when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $800 when playing against.
Yankees at Twins – The League is 8-0 since April 08, 2010 as a home dog after a loss in which they had more than ten team-left-on-base for a net profit of $965. The Twins are 0-8 since April 22, 2009 when Scott Baker starts as a dog in the first game of a series for a net profit of $800 when playing against.