NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (18-8) at Philadelphia (14-11)
Adam Wainwright (4-1, 2.13 ERA) goes after his fifth win on the young season when he leads the streaking Cardinals against Cole Hamels (2-2, 5.28) and the Phillies as this four-game series continues at Citizens Bank Park.
The Cardinals got another strong pitching performance from rookie Jaime Garcia and stretched their winning streak to three in a row with a 6-3 victory in Monday’s series opener. Tony LaRussa’s squad, which has the best record in the National League, has won eight of nine overall and is on additional solid runs of 7-1 as a favorite and 6-0 versus N.L. East foes. However, St. Louis has dropped six of its last eight against left-handed starters and five straight on the highway against lefties.
Philadelphia has now still dropped nine of its last 15 contests since starting the season 8-2, going 2-4 at home during this stretch. The Phillies remain on positive runs of 35-18 against the N.L. Central, 11-5 versus right-handed starters and 7-1 at home against righties.
These teams faced off just five times last year, with the Phillies winning four of the five contests, and going back to 2008, Philadelphia has won eight of the last 11 series clashes, going 4-2 at home. In last year’s four wins over St. Louis, the Phillies tallied 39 runs.
Wainwright is coming off his 11th consecutive quality start – at least six innings pitched while allowing three earned runs or fewer – as he held the Braves to three runs in six innings en route to Thursday’s 10-4 home victory. The outing actually ended a string of five straight starts in which Wainwright pitched at least seven innings and gave up two earned runs or fewer. Going back to the middle of June, the right-hander has had 24 quality starts in his last 25 trips to the mound, allowing two earned runs or fewer in 22 of those 25 contests.
With Wainwright starting, the Redbirds are on impressive upticks of 37-15 overall, 20-6 on the road, 15-5 against the N.L. East, 25-6 versus winning teams and 5-1 on Tuesday. He’s made two road starts this year, going 1-1 with a 2.40 ERA, as he gave up two runs in each of contest (6-3 win at Cincinnati; 2-0 loss at San Francisco).
Wainwright’s worst start of 2009 came in a home game against the Phillies, as he got torched for seven runs (all earned) on nine hits and two walks in six innings, losing 10-7. However, in three starts against Philly prior to that – all in 2007 – he gave up a total of three runs and 17 hits in 21 innings (1.29 ERA), and the Cardinals won all three games by a combined margin of 20-6. That includes a 10-2 win in Wainwright’s only previous start at Citizens Bank Park (he pitched seven shutout innings).
Hamels’ struggles continued at San Francisco on Wednesday as he gave up four runs on nine hits and four walks in six innings. Though Hamels did strikeout 10, he left trailing 4-1, but the Phillies rallied with two outs in the ninth inning and prevailed 7-6 in 11 innings. Still, over his past two starts, Hamels has allowed 10 runs (all earned) in 12 innings, and unlike Wainwright, the lefty has just one quality outing in his last 12 starts (playoffs included).
Philadelphia has won 21 of Hamels’ last 29 starts against N.L. Central competition and four of his last five Tuesday outings, but it has dropped five of his last seven starts at Citizens Bank. This year at home, Hamels is 1-1 with a 3.95 ERA in two games. Against the Cardinals, he’s 2-2 with a 4.22 ERA in six career starts.
St. Louis brings a slew of “under” trends into this contest, including 8-2-1 overall, 8-3 on the road, 13-3-1 versus winning teams, 25-10-2 against left-handed starters and 7-3-1 when Wainwright starts on the highway. On the flip side, the Cardinals have topped the total in four straight Tuesday contests, and it’s been all “overs” for Philadelphia, including 36-17-2 overall, 16-6-2 at home, 8-3 against N.L. Central teams, 7-3 as an underdog, 7-1-1 with Hamels starting and 3-1-1 with Hamels toiling at home.
Finally, the over is 13-7-2 in the last 22 Phillies-Cardinals clashes at Citizens Bank Park. Also, three of Wainwright’s four career starts against Philadelphia and three of Hamels’ last four outings against St. Louis have gone over the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS and OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Detroit (16-11) at Minnesota (17-9)
The Tigers’ Dontrelle Willis (1-1, 3.75) tries to build off a strong start in his last outing when he toes the rubber at Target Field, while the Twins are set to counter with Nick Blackburn (1-1, 6.85).
Michael Cuddyer hit a three-run home run to highlight a four-run first inning as Minnesota cruised past Detroit 10-3 on Monday. The Twins have seven of 10 in their new ballpark, and they’re on additional impressive runs of 36-16 overall, 17-5 at home (including the Metrodome), 28-11 against A.L. Central foes, 23-6 as a favorite, 13-5 versus southpaws, 39-15 at home against lefties and 23-6 on Tuesday.
The Tigers had a season-high five-game winning streak halted Monday, but they’re still 9-4 in their last 13 contests (4-3 on the road). Additionally, they’re on stretches of 7-4 against division rivals, 4-1 versus right-handed starters and 4-2 as an underdog, but Detroit has also now lost 30 of 44 as a road ‘dog.
These division rivals met last week in Motown, with the Twins winning the opener 2-0 and Detroit coming back to score victories of 11-6 and 3-0, so this year’s season series is now even. Last year, Minnesota took 11 of the final 17 meetings with the Tigers, including a 6-5, 12-inning home victory in a one-game playoff to determine the division champ. Also, Monday’s contest extended Detroit’s misery in Minneapolis, as the Tigers are now 28-63 in their last 91 games in Minnesota.
Ten days after a tough-luck 2-0 loss at the Angels in which he gave up both runs in six innings, Willis was even better on Thursday against these Twins. He scattered four hits and two walks while striking out six in a six scoreless innings, leading Detroit to a 3-0 home win. Willis has pitched at least six innings and surrendered a total of four runs in three of his four starts in 2010.
Detroit has won four straight games with Willis starting against A.L. Central rivals, but it has also lost seven of his last nine as a visitor. However, his first two road performances of this season were identically solid: six innings pitched and two runs allowed in each contest. Also, prior to Thursday, Willis’ only previous career start against the Twins came last May in the Metrodome, and he gave up four runs in 4 2/3 innings, getting a no-decision in the Tigers’ 14-10 loss.
Blackburn hasn’t been on the mound since April 24 when he allowed six runs (five earned) in 4 1/3 innings at Kansas City. A week earlier, the Royals roughed him up at Target Field, scoring five runs in five innings. Despite those two poor performances, though, the Twins found a way to win both games by scores of 9-7 and 6-5. Minnesota is 7-2 in Blackburn’s last nine trips to the hill, 4-1 in his last five at home and 6-1 in his last seven against the A.L. Central.
Blackburn dominated the Tigers in his final two starts against them in 2009, giving up just three runs (two earned) in 16 innings (1.13 ERA), and Minnesota won both contests 6-2 (home) and 3-2 (road). Still, Blackburn is just 2-3 with a 3.95 ERA in seven lifetime appearances (six starts) against Detroit.
The Tigers are on “over” streaks of 5-0-1 on the road, 5-1-1 as an underdog, 4-0-1 as a road pup, 6-2 versus A.L. Central competition and 4-1 on Tuesday. Also, the over is 5-1-1 in Willis’ last seven starts against divisional foes, but seven of his last 10 starts overall have stayed low. The Twins carry “under” trends of 7-2 versus southpaw starters, 8-2-1 at home against lefties, 4-1 when Blackburn starts on Tuesday and 17-6-1 when Blackburn pitches on grass. Conversely, Blackburn’s last four home starts have jumped over the total, as have his last four against the A.L. Central.
Finally, though Monday’s contest soared over the posted total, the under was 4-1-1 in the last six Metrodome meetings between these two in 2009, and the under has cashed in each of Blackburn’s last five starts versus Detroit.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA
Tuesday's Tip Sheet
By Chris David
One month of the pro baseball season is in the books and Tampa Bay is sitting in the top spot. Tonight, the Rays begin a three-game set against Seattle. Along with this series starting, the National League also has some new sets beginning too.
Atlanta (11-14, -526) at Washington (13-12, +778)
Are the Braves back? After dropping nine straight games, Atlanta has rebounded with a three-game sweep over Houston this past weekend. The offense busted out of the slump with 21 runs and the pitching staff was brilliant too, surrendering just four runs in the victories. Kenshin Kawakami (0-4, 5.48 ERA) hopes to keep the momentum going on Tuesday when the team visits Washington. The Japanese product will also be looking for his first win of the season but he needs his lineup to help him. In his four starts, the Braves have put up a total of five runs. The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 in his appearances.
Washington has definitely opened up some eyes, especially with a winning record in May. The Nationals are tied for third place in the National League East despite losing two of three against the Marlins over the weekend. The pitching staff gave up 16 runs in the two losses, which hasn’t been a common theme for the Nats recently. Prior to those ugly performances, the staff allowed four runs or less in nine straight and the ‘under’ went 8-1 in those contests.
Livan Hernandez (3-1, 0.87 ERA) will try to bust Washington out of its mini-slump against Atlanta and he’s got a great shot to do so. The hefty hurler has only given up three earned runs in four starts, plus he’s gone at least seven innings in all four as well. The lone loss was a 2-0 setback to Colorado. The ‘under’ has gone 4-0 in his appearances this season.
The Braves went 10-8 against the Nationals last year and the ‘under’ posted a 10-7-1 mark in the 18 meetings.
Chicago Cubs (13-13, -370) at Pittsburgh (10-15, -147)
The Cubs have been up and down this season and a lot of their success has come from their bats and right now the hits are happening. After dropping three straight, Chicago finished up the weekend strong with three consecutive victories over Arizona behind an offense that put up 11, 7 and 10 runs. The only downside to taking three of four over the Diamondbacks was the pitching which surrendered 28 runs in the four-game set.
Chicago leans to Ryan Dempster (2-1, 2,78 ERA) tonight and he’s been unlucky this year with a pair of no decisions, and his only loss came by one run in his last start on Apr. 28 to Washington (2-3). The Cubs went 5-1 against the Pirates last season when Dempster was on the hill and three of the wins were at PNC Park.
Pittsburgh returns home from a 10-game road trip that watched the team go 3-7 and six of the losses came by three runs ore more. The offense struggled during this span, mustering up three runs or less in eight of the games. The Pirates hope lefthander Paul Maholm (1-2, 4.83 ERA) can stop the bleeding and he’ll be facing a Cubs lineup that has gone 4-3 against lefties this season. It should also be noted that Maholm has given up 23 earned runs in his last four appearances against the Cubs, and surprisingly Pitt has gone 2-2 in those games. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1.
The Pirates won five of their first six games at home but were trounced in their next three contests to Milwaukee (36-1). The ‘over’ has gone 4-3 in the nine games. Even though Pittsburgh’s offense is ranked third-worst (.234, 86 runs) in the majors, the team ERA (6.79) has helped keep the scoreboard operator very busy.
San Francisco (14-10, +297) at Florida (13-12, -74)
San Francisco heads to the East Coast for a quick six-game trip, which begins tonight in Florida. The Giants will lead with their ace, Tim Lincecum (4-0, 1.27 ERA), for the opener and “The Freak” has been lights out this season. He should be 5-0 but the bullpen blew a three-run lead in the team’s 7-6 extra inning loss to Philadelphia in his most recent start last Wednesday. What’s more impressive is that he’s gone 2-0 in his two road starts and he’s surrendered no earned runs in either game. Lincecum has only faced the Marlins once in his career and he pitched the Giants to a 3-2 win last season as a road favorite.
The Marlins snapped a three-game losing streak over the weekend with a pair of blowout wins over the Nationals (7-1, 9-3). The 16 runs came after the offense was held in check to six runs during the three straight setbacks. Anibel Sanchez (1-2, 4.32 ERA) doesn’t have numbers comparable to Lincecum but his last two starts (13 innings, 3 earned runs) were solid albeit against limited lineups in the Astros and Padres.
San Francisco’s offense started the season as a juggernaut, posting 68 runs in the first 11 games, which helped the ‘over’ go 7-4. Since that early explosion, the Giants have put up 40 runs in the last 13 contests and to no surprise, the ‘under’ has gone 12-1 during this span.
The Giants won four of seven against the Marlins last year, and total players should make a note that the ‘under’ went 5-1-1 in the regular season series.
Tampa Bay (18-7, +720) at Seattle (11-14, -429)
The Rays take to the road for nine straight encounters against the AL West, which starts tonight at Safeco Field against Seattle. Even though Tampa Bay went 2-2 over the weekend at home against Kansas City and its offense was held to five runs in the last three games, the club still has the best record and offense (147 runs) in the majors and a lot of the success has been away from home. Joe Maddon’s team has gone 9-1 on the road this year but keep in mind that the victories came against the Orioles (7-18), Red Sox (11-14) and White Sox (10-15).
Tampa Bay will send James Shields (3-0, 3.38 ERA) to the hill and the team has gone 4-1 in his starts this year, which includes three straight wins that was helped with run support of 26. Shields has faced the Mariners six times in his career and the Rays have gone 3-3 in those starts and five of the encounters were in Seattle. The ‘under’ has gone 5-1 during this span.
Seattle will counter with lefthander Justin Vargas (2-1, 3.60 ERA) and he’s pitched well in his last three outings (2-0, 5 earned runs), which has watched the team go 2-1 over that span. Vargas will need to have a good outing for Seattle since the team is mired in a 2-7 skid and the offense is averaging 3.7 runs per game during this drought, which includes a three-game sweep to the Rangers (0-2, 3-6, 1-3) over the weekend at home.
The Mariners won five of the eight battles against the Rays last season and the ‘over’ went 5-3 in the regular season series. Tampa owns a 4-3 ledger against southpaws this season.
vegasinsider.com
Diamond Trends - Tuesday
By Vince Akins
Diamondbacks at Astros – The Diamondbacks are 0-7 since May 20, 2009 as a dog vs a team that has lost at least their last three games for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Astros are 0-8 since October 04, 2009 after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $870 when playing against.
Rangers at Athletics – The Rangers are 6-0 since June 25, 2009 when Scott Feldman starts vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $650
Brewers at Dodgers – The Brewers are 4-0 since September 03, 2009 as a 140+ dog after a 5+ run loss for a net profit of $640. The Brewers are 0-6 since July 20, 2009 as a dog after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Dodgers are 0-5 since June 01, 2009 as a 140+ favorite when they are off a win in which they never trailed and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $820 when playing against. The Dodgers are 0-5 since July 24, 2009 when Clayton Kershaw starts as a home favorite after a quality start for a net profit of $930 when playing against.
Blue Jays at Indians – The Blue Jays are 0-5 since August 12, 2009 when Ricky Romero starts on the road after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $500 when playing against. The Indians are 1-16 since September 05, 2009 as a dog when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $1470 when playing against.
Rays at Mariners – The Rays are 7-0 since July 10, 2009 as a 140+ favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $700. The Mariners are 0-5 since August 23, 2009 after an extra inning loss for a net profit of $630 when playing against.
Giants at Marlins – The Giants are 8-0 since June 12, 2009 as a 140+ favorite after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $800. The Marlins are 0-4 since July 16, 2009 at home after a win in which they drew 5+ walks and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $600 when playing against.
Braves at Nationals – The Braves are 0-8 since April 14, 2009 after a win in which they left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $1030 when playing against.
Rockies at Padres – The Rockies are 7-0 since May 18, 2009 as a dog when their starter went less than four innings in his last start for a net profit of $955.
Cardinals at Phillies – The Cardinals are 0-6 since April 14, 2009 on the road after a win in which they were tied at the end of 6 innings and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $690 when playing against. The Phillies are 7-0 since May 15, 2009 after a loss in which they were tied at the end of 6 innings for a net profit of $775.
Cubs at Pirates – The Pirates are 0-10 since May 04, 2009 as a dog after a 5+ run loss and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000 when playing against.
Angels at Red Sox – The Angels are 8-0 since June 23, 2009 after a 5+ run loss and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $825. The Red Sox are 6-0 since September 09, 2009 after a 5+ run win and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $600. The Red Sox are 0-5 since September 25, 2009 when they won the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $645 when playing against.
Mets at Reds – The Reds are 9-0 since August 31, 2009 as a favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $900.
Tigers at Twins – The Tigers are 0-7 since April 07, 2009 as a dog after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Twins are 8-0 since July 18, 2009 after a win in which they left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $835
Royals at White Sox – The Royals are 0-7 since August 29, 2009 as a dog after a loss in which they drew 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The White Sox are 0-4 since May 24, 2009 as a 140+ favorite when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $685 when playing against.
Orioles at Yankees – The Orioles are 0-8 since September 19, 2009 as a 170+ dog when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Orioles are 0-7 since August 09, 2009 on the road after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Yankees are 9-0 since August 11, 2009 as a 200+ favorite when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $900
You not get the Dan Bebe write ups any longer?
You not get the Dan Bebe write ups any longer?
He has been on Vacation and will start backup when he gets back.