MLB News and Notes Tuesday 6/15

Tuesday's Tip Sheet
By Chris David

Interleague action continues Tuesday with another 14 games on tap, which is highlighted with a World Series rematch between the Phillies and Yankees from the Bronx. Along with this battle, tonight’s card features some of the best hurlers in the majors. Let’s take a closer look at those contests, plus the big game from New York.

In case you’re wondering, the National League holds a slight edge (46-42) over the American League through the first 88 encounters and that includes a 3-1 mark last night. Can the NL keep the heat on or will the AL bounce back?

N.Y. Mets at Cleveland

The Mets have opened up a 5-1 record in interleague play after sweeping the Orioles on the road this past weekend. New York will continue its nine-game road trip against the AL with a three-game set in Cleveland, who just took two of three from Washington, the lone loss coming (4-9) against the Nationals’ sensation Stephen Strasburg on Sunday. The Tribe will face another big-game pitcher tonight in the Mets’ Johan Santana (4-3, 2.96 ERA). Unfortunately for the lefty, New York has come up short in five of last six appearances and it has nothing to do with him. The offense has scored six runs in the five setbacks and six in the one win. Johan has gone 7-7 with a 3.42 ERA in 20 starts versus the Indians, coming with his previous stop as a Minnesota Twin. The Mets are listed as favorites (-145) over the Tribe and Justin Masterson (2-5, 4.74 ERA), who’s coming off two straight wins, which comes as a surprise after Cleveland went 2-8 in his first 10 starts.

Philadelphia at New York

The Yankees won the World Series last year by beating the Phillies in six games. Philadelphia will hope to get some revenge tonight when Roy Halladay (8-4, 1.96 ERA) takes the rubber. He’s had a lot of success against the Yankees (18-6, 2.81 ERA) over 35 starts and that includes an impressive 8-1 run over his last 10 appearances. New York’s top hurler, CC Sabathia (6-3, 4.01 ERA), will look to outduel Halladay but his 1-3 record and 4.74 ERA against the Phillies in his career isn’t impressive. New York has been made the favorite (-125) over Doc Halladay, largely due to its home record (22-7) and current winning streak (eight wins) at Yankees Stadium. Keep in mind that those eight wins were against the Indians, Orioles and Astros.

The Phillies are hoping All-Star Jimmy Rollins (calf) can return to the lineup soon, since his loss has hurt the team offensively and overall (6-12). Four of the six games in last year’s World Series went ‘under’ and it could’ve been five if it wasn’t for the suspended play in Game 2, which turned out to be a 3-1 final. The total on tonight’s matchup is 7 ½, which is expected but still super low for an AL contest. Alex Rodriguez (groin) is listed as ‘probable’ but catcher Jorge Posada (foot) is ‘questionable’ for the showdown. Halladay has watched the ‘under’ go 5-1 in his six road appearances this season.

Arizona at Boston

Arizona just wrapped up a solid 6-3 homestand in the desert but what preceded that mark were nine straight losses on the road, which is where the Diamondbacks will play their next six games. On Tuesday, the trip starts with arguably the toughest test against Boston and its best pitcher to date, Clay Buchholz (8-4, 2.52 ERA). The Red Sox are on a 19-9 at Fenway Park and Bucholz has gone 5-1 over his last six, all quality starts too. Arizona and Boston didn’t meet last year, but they did square off in 2008 and 2007. The Red Sox went 4-2 and the ‘under’ was 4-1-1 during the six-game stretch. Boston has gone 4-2 versus the NL this season, all of the encounters coming against Philadelphia. Arizona has only played three interleague affairs and they won two of three shootouts against Toronto, all at home and all three easily went ‘over’ the number too. Buchholz has been installed as a minus-200 favorite at most betting shops, which is the biggest number on tonight’s board. Arizona will go with Ian Kennedy (3-3, 3.17 ERA) tonight and the former New York Yankee has battled back and forth this season. Gamblers might want to make a note that the team has lost seven games with him on the hill, but five were by one run.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta

David Price (9-2, 2.23 ERA) has been sharp this year and the Rays have won nine of his 12 starts, eight coming by two runs or more as well. Tampa has been listed as a short road favorite (-120), which shouldn’t come as a surprise since it owns a league-best 22-8 record outside of Tropicana Field. Something will have to give here since Atlanta has been a beast at home (19-6) and that includes a current nine-game winning streak. Kenshin Kawakami (0-8, 4.48 ERA) takes the mound for the Braves and the Japanese product is hoping to earn a win, but he’ll need some run support. In his 12 appearances, Atlanta has been stifled to four runs or less nine times. The two teams haven’t met during interleague play since 2006, when the Braves took two of three on the road.

Texas at Florida

The Texas offense has been picking up the heat lately, scoring 45 runs over its last six games, which has produced a solid 5-1 record. That hot streak could come to an end Tuesday when the Rangers face Florida’s ace Josh Johnson (7-2, 1.91 ERA). The Marlins have won seven of his eight starts at home and the lone loss (0-1) came to Philadelphia, when Roy Halladay pitched a perfect game. C.J. Wilson (5-3, 3.52 ERA) will try to keep the Rangers in the game and he should have confidence coming off two straight wins. Keep in mind that Wilson is a lefty and the Fish have gone 7-2 at home versus southpaws this season.

Toronto at San Diego

After giving up the aforementioned Halladay to the Phillies in an offseason trade, not many folks expected the Blue Jays to have a clear-cut No. 1. Brett Cecil (7-2, 3.22 ERA) came on late last year in his debut season and he’s performing well again. He’s been good on the road too (5-1, 2.45 ERA) but the Padres have cleaned up at home against lefthanders (9-3) this season. San Diego lost three of the first five starts with Matt Latos (6-4, 3.24 ERA) on the hill, but he’s turned it around with 5-2 run over the last seven. He hasn’t given up more than three earned runs over this span and has struck out 47 during this run. Prior to last night’s win over San Diego (6-3), the Blue Jays were 1-5 against the AL this season, while the Padres countered with a 4-2 interleague record.

vegasinsider.com

Diamond Trends - Tuesday
By Vince Akins

Brewers at Angels – The Brewers are 0-5 since September 02, 2009 when David Bush starts when he is off a start in which he needed more than 4 pitches per batter for a net profit of $500 when playing against. The Angels are 8-0 since August 08, 2009 as a favorite after a 5+ run loss and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $800.

Rays at Braves – The Rays are 7-0 since September 17, 2009 on the road when they are off a loss in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs for a net profit of $700. The Rays are 6-0 since July 09, 2009 when David Price starts vs a team that lost their starters last two starts for a net profit of $610. The Braves are 0-7 since April 11, 2010 when Kenshin Kawakami starts as a dog for a net profit of $700 when playing against.

Mariners at Cardinals – The Mariners are 0-9 since September 09, 2009 as a dog when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Mariners are 0-8 since May 06, 2009 as a road dog after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Mariners are 0-5 since July 24, 2009 when Ryan Rowland Smith starts after he had a WHIP of at least 2 his last start for a net profit of $520 when playing against.

Athletics at Cubs – The Athletics are 0-7 since April 22, 2009 on the road when they are off two losses in which they never led for a net profit of $710 when playing against. The Cubs are 0-6 since June 17, 2009 after scoring 3 runs or less and winning and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $795 when playing against.

Orioles at Giants – The Orioles are 0-8 since April 16, 2010 on the road when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $800 when playing against.

Mets at Indians – The Mets are 0-5 since June 30, 2009 when Johan Santana starts as a road favorite after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $565 when playing against. The Indians are 0-7 since September 11, 2009 as a home dog after a loss and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Indians are 0-7 since August 25, 2009 when Justin Masterson starts after throwing more than 100 pitches at home for a net profit of $700 when playing against.

Rangers at Marlins – The Marlins are 0-7 since June 26, 2009 after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Marlins are 0-6 since July 16, 2009 at home after a win in which they drew 5+ walks and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $835 when playing against.

Blue Jays at Padres – The Blue Jays are 7-0 since July 26, 2009 when Brett Cecil starts within 20 cents of pickem for a net profit of $735. The Padres are 4-0 since April 10, 2010 when Mat Latos starts when the bullpen has allowed at least one run for two straight games for a net profit of $500.

Diamondbacks at Red Sox – The Diamondbacks are 0-8 since May 27, 2009 as a 140+ dog when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The League is 7-0 since September 29, 2009 as a 200+ favorite when they are off a loss in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $700.

Dodgers at Reds – The Dodgers are 9-0 since July 03, 2009 when Hiroki Kuroda starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $900. The Reds are 8-0 since June 06, 2009 at home within 20 cents of pickem after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $865.

Astros at Royals – The Astros are 0-7 since September 20, 2009 on the road after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Astros are 5-0 since June 02, 2009 when Felipe Paulino starts in June for a net profit of $605. The Royals are 8-0 since April 13, 2009 at home when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $900.

Nationals at Tigers – The Tigers are 0-5 since August 08, 2009 as a home favorite after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $790 when playing against. The Tigers are 0-5 since April 12, 2010 when Max Scherzer starts in the first game of a series for a net profit of $595 when playing against.

Rockies at Twins – The Rockies are 0-6 since June 29, 2009 on the road when they are off two wins in which they never trailed for a net profit of $645 when playing against. The Twins are 7-0 since July 12, 2009 as a favorite after a loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base for a net profit of $700.

Phillies at Yankees – The Phillies are 0-4 since May 12, 2010 when Roy Halladay starts after facing 30 or more hitters for a net profit of $770 when playing against. The Yankees are 8-0 since July 18, 2009 when CC Sabathia starts at home after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $800.

MLB RoundUp For 6/15
By Dan Bebe

National League

Dodgers @ Reds (-110) with a total of 9
Ronnie Belliard was 9-for-20 with a HR and 3 RBI off Harang before 2010;
Jamey Carroll was 4-for-12 off Harang before 2010;
Rafael Furcal was 5-for-10 with 2 RBI off Harang before 2010;
Russ Martin was 4-for-8 off Harang with 2 RBI before 2010.
REMATCH ALERT! Honestly, though, I'm not sure I'd treat this one any differently than the last. It is interesting to note that the line has moved about 25 cents towards the Reds in this meeting between Kuroda and Harang, as the Dodgers righty was a -135 favorite in the earlier meeting here in Cincy. Kuroda went 5.2 innings, gave up 3 earned run (6 total, some bad defense really did the trick), but Harang was even worse. That game ended with 20 total runs being scored in a Dodgers 14-6 winner. Harang's career ERA against LA is still in the mid-5's, he's 2-5 against LAD, and Kuroda, while a bit fortunate to get that big run support, is 2-0 with a 3.29 ERA against the Reds. He's coming off his first solid start in about 3 weeks, and Harang continues to bounce between good and mediocre. Leans: Dodgers

Interleague Play

White Sox (-135) @ Pirates with a total of 9
This is basically a game without any data to work on, though I suppose Ronny Cedeno has seen Garcia a couple times from that short-lived stint in Philadelphia. Garcia continues to be just barely serviceable, and as a result, he's having a nice year, record-wise. He's 6-3 with a 4.82 ERA, and 2-0 lifetime against Pittsburgh. The Pirates are terrible, but we've seen them rattle off a few big underdog wins at home this year, and I wonder if this one isn't setting up to be another. Garcia's coming off 3 consecutive 7-inning starts, so he's in a nice groove, and Lincoln is making his home debut. The value in this game might actually be on the Under, and I'm honestly somewhat surprised that the line is this high, considering the Pirates are averaging 2.6 runs/game over the last week. Leans: Under

Mets (-160) @ Indians with a total of 8
I know that Johan is 7-7 against the Indians with a 3.42 ERA, but DAMN has he crushed the current Indians. Travis Hafner is batting .182 against him over the past 5 years, Anderson Hernandez is 1-for-7, Austin Kearns is 2-for-12, Andy Marte is 0-for-4, and Jhonny Peralta is 3-for-22. Justin Masterson is working on a hell of a resurgence his last 3 starts, capped off by a complete game shutout against the Red Sox. Two pitchers in good spots, dare we look at the Under again? I wouldn't, actually, as the Indians have been swinging hot bats, and I think that if one team gets a couple runs, the other might do the same. There isn't a ton of value with the big favorite here, not with how the Indians have been playing, but at the same time, can we really fade Santana? Leans: Under

Phillies @ Yankees (-125) with a total of 7.5
Ryan Howard is 3-for-7 off Sabathia;
Placido Polanco is batting .326 with a HR and 3 RBI off Sabathia since '05;
Shane Victorino is 3-for-7 off Sabathia;
Curtis Granderson is 5-for-12 with a HR off Halladay;
Alex Rodriguez is batting .306 with a HR and 7 RBI off Halladay since '05.
Roy's back against the Yankees, a team that he has not feared throughout his solid career. Halladay is a remarkable 18-6 against New York with a 2.84 ERA, just incredible numbers against such a prolific offensive team. C.C. is 1-1 with a 4.35 ERA against the Phils, and for all the hype, his ERA is actually over 4. C.C. has been able to pick on the Orioles, lately, but has been tagged a bit by the better offensive teams. Leans: Phils

Nationals @ Tigers (-148) with a total of 9.5
Adam Dunn is 3-for-3 with 2 HR off Scherzer;
Johnny Damon is 2-for-4 with a HR off Lannan.
I find it tough to lay this number with Scherzer, though, to his credit, he has pitched better since returning from the Minors. The Nats are no pushovers, but they're also not very good on the road, and just lost 2 of 3 in Cleveland, winning only a Strasburg start. Lannan is 2-3 with a 5.00 ERA this year. That being said, Scherzer got slapped around by the Nats when he faced them while with the D'backs. I'd look at the Over before either side, but not really enough to get on my list of plays that might make a final look. Leans: Over

Diamondbacks @ Red Sox (-185) with a total of 9.5
This is really going to be a match-up folks probably thought they'd see with the Yankees, but Ian Kennedy is on the D'backs now, and it's time we all accepted that. Buchholz is coming into his own as one of the best young pitchers in baseball, and his 8-4, 2.52 mark this year highlights a wonderful first 2.5 months of the season. Kennedy is pitching his butt off, too, and with a marginal bullpen, would have a lot more to show for his 3.17 ERA on a bad team that plays in a hitter's park. There's probably some value on the D'backs here, since we know they can hit, and Fenway rarely has a shortage of runs, but Boston is just playing too well these days. Leans: None

Rays (-135) @ Braves with a total of 8.5
Interleague games are fun for me, if only because I don't have to type a bunch of lines of player notes. So, we go on trends in those games. Price is coming off back-to-back strong starts against the Jays, and he's never faced the Braves. His 9-2 record and 2.23 ERA on the season means he'll probably have a slight leg up on guys that have never seen him. Kawakami is not very good. He's also pretty unlucky, as his team just seems to find ways to lose when he's on the hill. His ERA is just 4.48, which really wouldn't seem to lend itself to an 0-8 record. This one is tough for me, since the Braves have been hot, winning 2 of 3 in Minnesota over the weekend, but the Rays are the best road team in the Bigs. Leans: Rays

Rangers @ Marlins (-151) with a total of 7
I don't think I'm going that far out on a limb when I say that Josh Johnson has been the best pitcher in baseball over the past month, and if it weren't for Ubaldo Jimenez, he might be the best pitcher this year. He's 7-2 with a 1.91 ERA, and he's given up 2 earned runs since May 8. Just insane numbers. That's 2 runs in 42 innings over 6 starts. Batters are looking positively overmatched against him, and the Marlins have won 5 of those 6 starts. C.J. Wilson is coming off his first good start in his last 5. After scuffling a bit, Wilson got to pick on the weak-hitting Mariners, and I just wonder how he deals with the Marlins bats. This one could be low scoring, but if anyone is going to break through, you have to think it's going to be Florida. That bullpen scares me a little, and I know it's weird, but even at that price, I like the Marlins. Leans: Marlins

Athletics @ Cubs (-130) with a total of N/A
Marlon Byrd is 4-for-10 off Cahill with an RBI.
I'm a little confused by this line. Have the Cubs been winning, or something? This is insane, to me. Cahill is 5-2 with a 2.91 ERA on an overachieving A's team that got swept in San Francisco. Zambrano is 2-4 with a 6.05 ERA on an underachieving Cubs team that lost 2 of 3 at home to the White Sox. I know the A's are garbage on the road, but wow. Cahill's been effective, if not solid, in every outing since his first, and Zambrano has yet to have even one legitimately good start in 2010. Leans: Athletics

Rockies @ Twins (-140) with a total of 9
Somehow, despite having almost no experience against the current rosters, Cook is 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA against the Twins, and Pavano is 4-2 with a 4.50 ERA against the Rockies. Those numbers, to me, mean nothing. The Rockies are on a 3-game winning streak, all coming against the Jays at Coors Field. The Twins lost 2 of 3 to the Braves, at home. Tough to take the dog odds with Cook a guy that almost always is going to give up a couple runs. The Twins might be itching to take out some offensive aggression against a team that isn't playing as well as Atlanta was. I'd avoid this one. Leans: None

Astros @ Royals (-125) with a total of 8.5
Paulino, amazingly, has an ERA of 3.82! I know, it's nuts. He's 1-7, but has that ERA that just keeps falling. He's gone 8 innings in 3 consecutive starts, and as far as underrated pitchers, he's about as notable as they come. Kyle Davies has an ERA of 5.48, and while the Royals can definitely hit the ball, I just wonder if this isn't a spot where Houston is going to be so excited to be anywhere but New York that they get Paulino his second win of the year. Davies has given up 15 runs in his last 3 starts, and before getting creamed by the Yankees, the Astros had actually been playing relatively well. Do we bank on the bounceback, or just dodge it? Leans: Astros

Mariners @ Cardinals (-165) with a total of 9
Jeff Suppan's back, baby. Okay, so that's not really big news, since he's made just 2 starts this year, and got pounded in each of them, and I honestly don't really see how this one should be any different. The most intriguing number here is the total of 9. Rowland-Smith has been on the ugly end of some nasty games, with the Mariners losing his last 3 starts by the final scores of 8-4, 11-2, and 12-3. He was only responsible for the ugliness in the first and third, but considering those games have all been well into the double digits, and considering Suppan has an ERA this season of almost 9, I would have expected 9.5 or maybe even 10 in this one. Now, our job is to determine if this line is where it is because of something we need to know, or because folks don't think the Cards can score. Leans: Over

Brewers @ Angels (-161) with a total of 9.5
The Brewers can hit on the road, and the Angels, seemingly, can hit anywhere. Santana was on a vicious roll before stumbling a tad in his last start against Oakland, and I just wonder if he has a mini-slump, or gets things turned around very quickly. Bush has been decidedly below average in almost every start this season, but did manage to pitch well enough that his team could come back and win the game in his last start. Honestly, Bush could get crushed in this one, and Santana could throw a 1-hitter, or it could be the other way around. For some reason, Dave Bush is one of the few pitchers that just always does the opposite of what his numbers suggest he should do. Leans: None

Blue Jays @ Padres (-125) with a total of 6
This may catch you by surprise, but the Jays have actually won Brett Cecil's last 6 starts, and that includes wins over the Rays, Yankees and Angels, among others, and he is, arguably, among the hottest pitchers in the AL. Matt Latos, after a furious stretch in early May, has regressed a tad, still pitching well, but not going deep in games, and generally giving up 2 runs in either 5 or 6 innings. That might be bad for a lot of teams, but with the Padres bullpen back behind him, those numbers will generally net you a win. He's striking out quite a few batters, and that's running up the pitch count quickly. This one could definitely strike that total of 6, and our job is to figure out who prevails. The Padres bullpen is definitely the stronger of the two, but the Jays are the more electric offensive team. This one strikes me as a bit of a coin-flip, though given Cecil's run, you have to at least look at the hot hand. Leans: Jays

Orioles @ Giants (-155) with a total of 8.5
Jake Arrieta pitched pretty well in his only start thus far this year, allowing 3 runs in 6 innings of an eventual 4-3 win over the Yankees, of all teams. Joe Martinez came up for a cup of coffee in August of last year, and was awful. He made 5 starts, never went deeper than 5 innings in any of them, and allowed 20 earned runs in 24.1 innings. The Orioles remain radioactive to me, so I'm not about to come here and tell you they're the right side, but I certainly wouldn't play the Giants. Considering San Francisco has been finding a way to score 5-6 runs most games, I would, however, take a peek at another Over, if indeed Martinez stinks this year like he did in 2009. Leans: Over