Tuesday's Pitching Preview
By Josh Jacobs
Trucking right into a new week, Interleague action continues down the path of the season. As we turn to Tuesday’s fully loaded, 15-game card several pitching duels are barking for attention. Which matchups can we take to the bank, and are their any vulnerabilities to be aware of?
N.Y. Yankees at Atlanta - 7:00 p.m. EDT
Chien-Ming Wang (0-5, 12.30 ERA). What more needs to be said? A five-inning outing last Wednesday may have bought him time in the rotation. His sinker is still all over the place and giving up six homers in the last 10 games indicates a lack of consistency. And what else can be said about averaging just 3.8 innings of action in his last three starts? Almost every statistic possible is working against Wang on Tuesday. These include righties going to town for a .346 BA while lefties have been superman like at .457. Road or home, the once dominant Yankees’ starter seems to have never recovered from torn right-foot tendons suffered in last year’s meeting in Houston. Adding insult to injury, the all important first pitch has been hammered this year, indicated by opponents teeing off for a .533 BA and taking 13 total bases. His interleague numbers (and anything else historical in nature) are about all we can base a decent outing on. In 11 starts versus the opposing league, Wang has constructed a 5-4 record with a 3.81 ERA. Books have continued to install New York’s starter as a steep favorite. In two of his last three starts, the board has been lit up with Wang as a $1.91 favorite in a 3-2 loss against Washington (6/17) and a $1.61 favorite in a no decision versus Texas (6/4).
On the opposing hill is Atlanta’s Tommy Hanson (2-0, 4.08). With only three starts under his belt in ’09, Hanson has made the most out of his rookie season. Two straight wins versus Cincinnati and Baltimore had the right-hander being stingy for a total of 12 hits allowed and two runs. His .240 BAA at home beats the .279 BAA on the road. And going up against a Yankees’ club swinging through the ball for a .232 BA, striking out 29 times and producing three runs per game could be just what Hanson backers need to cash in heavy. But this matchup isn’t without its insecurities as Atlanta’s slinger excelled against the a Reds club hitting .244 on the season followed by the Reds scoring a 24th worst, 286 runs.
The Braves are 3-6 in their last nine road games. New York is 10-4 in its last 14 head-to-head meetings. The ‘under is 5-1 in the Yanks last six and 13-3 in their last 16 interleague games.
Cubs at Detroit – 7:05 p.m. EDT
Both clubs have had equal success in the last 10 as an even 5-5 performance is indicative of. Chicago will dress Carlos Zambrano (4-2, 3.44) for the start. The Cubbies are 8-3 when their number one guy hits the pile of dirt, supplying 4.5 runs per game of support. His 1.5 runs per game (1.3 earned runs per game) surrendered in the last four starts goes above and beyond the call of duty. In Zambrano’s last seven starts, Chicago has gone 5-2, earning a profit of +284 on the money line. It’s in totals wagering where the money has been made. Zambrano has been instrumental in pushing the ‘under’ at 4-1 in the last five. With the exception of his last start against the White Sox, (going ‘over’ the 8 ½-total), Zambrano and the Cubs have seen an average total score of only 5.6 runs per game in the last five. And with the Tigers taking a back seat in the offensive department this month (batting .247, scoring 4.1 runs per game), expect much the same as most books look to adjust that total once more.
Planning to go toe-to-toe against Zambrano will be the Tigers’ fastball pitcher, Edwin Jackson (6-4, 2.39). The youngster is, hands down, having his best season to date. A 1.06 WHIP is off the charts and allowing 1.5 runs per game in his last four outings has been spot on. But it’s worth noting that in each of his last three outings, Jackson’s performance has progressively gotten worse. It’s been in the innings pitched that are of importance. On June 6, the Tigers defeated the Angels, 2-1 as Jackson received the complete game win. The next two starts have since seen the right-hander going five and six innings progressively. There’s no secret that Jackson hasn’t been as efficient as in games past this season. Backers be on alert though because this six-year vet is a monster at home. His 3-1 record and .214 BAA has been all you can ask with home town cooking behind him.
The total once again rears its head as a six-game ‘under’ streak has been in full effect with Jackson on the hill. In 11 of 14 appearances, Edwin Jackson has been able to cut opponents down by allowing three runs or fewer. The ‘under’ is also 11-4 in Detroit’s last 15 home games.
Colorado at L.A. Angels – 10:05 p.m. EDT
Let’s end Tuesday’s coverage glancing at a smoking Rockies club looking to enhance their already impressive 16-1 run in the last 17. Ubaldo Junenez (6-6, 3.73) will be responsible for keeping the momentum going. Colorado’s starting pitcher has been a stud at home (3-0 with a 2.34 ERA), but a road record at 2-4 and a 3.67 ERA are two obvious but damaging numbers to consider. His last four road trips have resulted in a 1-3 disappointment. But there’s more to this story. For instance, Junenez has surrendered 1.8 runs per game in that same stretch while the Rockies’ offense crossed the plate for four runs per game. With the batting order at a .246 figure on the road this season blame can’t be fully attached to just Junenez. Colorado is 2-7 in its last nine meetings against the Halos. In his last three starts, Junenez has been listed as the ‘dog twice.
It’s been a tough year for Ervin Santana (1-3, 7.47). The L.A. slinger is 1-4 in his last eight starts. At home, Santana is 0-1 with a 14.29 ERA thanks to falling victim to a 2.91 WHIP in 11.1 innings logged in at home. We’ll cut the right-hander some slack after missing 11 games due to a forearm injury. Regardless, when opposing teams are cracking Santana for a .344 BA then things must change soon or the four-year veteran might be witnessing his time spent in the dugout or pen. In his last outing against the Rockies, Santa went seven innings, working for a no decision after only giving up two runs. Bottom line is that 3.3 runs of support per contest from the bats at the plate isn’t helping Santana out one bit. But offense or not, can Santana flip the script on allowing a .448 BAA at home this year (that’s in three starts)?
Sportsbetting.com has opened up L.A. as a $1.35 home favorite with a total of nine runs listed on the board.
The ‘under’ is 19-7-1 in Colorado’s last 27 interleague games while the Rockies are 8-0 in their last eight road games.
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Tuesday’s streaking and slumping starting pitchers
By Covers.com
Streaking
Max Scherzer (4-4, 3.58), Arizona Diamondbacks
There haven’t been too many bright spots to the 2009 campaign for the D-backs, but the development of Scherzer takes a bit of the sting away for Arizona fans.
The righty has surrendered just two runs in his last three appearances, with ‘Zona winning two of those games.
“I think we’re seeing the maturation of a good major league pitcher,” Diamondbacks manager A.J. Hinch said following Scherzer’s victory against the Giants on June 11. “When he’s under control and in the strike zone, he’s a difficult guy to face.”
Brad Penny (6-2, 4.94), Boston Red Sox
This former Dodger ace was thought to be a long relief or emergency starter after the Sox signed him in the offseason. But he won a job in the rotation and has been one of the most consistent hurlers in the big leagues thus far.
He already has seven quality starts to his credit and the velocity on his fastball appears to jump each time he takes the mound.
Penny has given up just one earned run in his last two starts and under bettors have cashed in each of his last four outings.
Struggling
Chien-Ming Wang (0-5, 12.65), New York Yankees
It’s been a season-long battle for Wang. The former 19-game winner is struggling with his location in just about every trip to the bump. Wang, whose best pitch is his sinker ball, has been leaving far too many balls up in the zone.
His most recent start was probably his best this season, but the big righty still picked up his fifth loss of the season. He got 10 outs on grounders before getting yanked after the fifth inning with his team down 3-1 to the Nats.
“We wanted to see some good things out of him and we did,” Yankee manager Joe Girardi said following the contest. “The ground-ball outs is a real good sign.”
Wang is fighting to keep his spot in the rotation and if he reverts to his form from past starts he could be bullpen-bound.
Francisco Liriano (2-8, 5.91), Minnesota Twins
This lefty hasn’t been the same pitcher since undergoing Tommy John surgery in the fall of 2006. He still has swing-and-miss stuff, but he walks too many batters and gives up too many long balls.
"It's really frustrating, because every time I miss one pitch it just changes the whole game," Liriano said after the Pirates took him out of the park twice last Wednesday. "I don't know what to do anymore."
He hasn’t picked up a win since May 15 and the Twins have exchanged congratulatory high fives in only two of his last seven outings.
Chicago Cubs (34-32) at Detroit (38-31)
The streaking Tigers send Edwin Jackson (6-4, 2.39 ERA) to the mound, while the Cubs will counter with ace Carlos Zambrano (4-2, 3.44) as these squads hook up for the first time in three years.
Chicago tallied 10 hits on Monday in a makeup game at Atlanta, but couldn’t push across a run, leaving 12 runners on base in a 2-0 loss. Prior to the shutout defeat, the Cubs had won four in a row thanks to an offense that exploded for 26 runs. Lou Piniella’s club has still won seven of 11 against right-handed starters, but it is also just 4-11 in its last 15 road games overall and 0-6 in its last six in American League parks.
Detroit took Monday off after edging Milwaukee 3-2 on Sunday for its fourth win in a row, all versus the N.L. Central. The Tigers’ four-game run has been sparked by an offense that’s produced 28 runs scored, and the surge comes after a 1-5 stretch in which they managed just 17 runs. Detroit is on positive streaks of 5-0 at home, 4-0 against right-handed starters, 49-21 in interleague action and 40-12 in interleague home games. On the downside, Detroit has lost seven of eight after a day off and 12 of its last 15 on Tuesday.
These teams last met in June 2006, with Detroit sweeping a three-game series at Wrigley Field, outscoring the Cubs 26-9. Detroit has won four straight meetings overall and six of eight since 2000, but the visitor is 7-1 during this stretch.
Zambrano is coming off his fourth straight quality start, holding the White Sox to three runs on six hits in seven innings Thursday, but he got a no-decision as the Cubs scored five runs in the final two innings for a 6-5 victory. Zambrano is 2-0 with a 1.61 ERA in his last four starts, and the big right-hander has allowed three runs or fewer in eight consecutive outings.
With Zambrano on the bump, Chicago is on upticks of 8-3 overall, 40-16 on the road, 5-2 in interleague play, 4-1 on Tuesday, 5-1 against the A.L. Central and 10-2 in series openers. He’s 3-1 with a 2.58 ERA in six road games this season, and he’ll be facing the Tigers for the first time in his career tonight.
Jackson’s tough luck continued Wednesday, as he gave up three runs in six innings but lost 4-3 in St. Louis. Jackson has yielded three earned runs or fewer in eight straight starts, pitching at least six innings in seven of those contests, and he’s 5-2 with a 1.92 ERA during this stretch. Jackson is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in six home starts this season, and like Zambrano versus the Tigers, the right-hander is making his first-ever start against the Cubs in this contest.
The under is 4-1 in Zambrano’s last five starts overall, but otherwise he’s on “over” streaks of 8-1 in interleague play, 5-1 against the A.L. Central and 4-0 on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Jackson’s last six starts have stayed under the total.
The Cubs carry “under” trends of 21-9 overall, 7-1 on the highway, 10-2 against winning teams, 14-6 versus right-handed starters and 10-4-1 in series openers. Similarly, the Tigers are on “under” runs of 11-4 at home, 5-2 in interleague home games, 19-7 versus right-handed starters and 4-1 after an off day. However, five of the last six Cubs-Tigers clashes have topped the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Philadelphia (36-31) at Tampa Bay (37-34)
Last year’s surprising World Series participants begin a three-game interleague series at Tropicana Field, with veteran Jamie Moyer (4-6, 6.35) slated to toe the slab for the Phillies against Rays phenom David Price (1-1, 3.46).
Philadelphia hits the road after a disastrous 1-9 homestand, all against teams from the A.L. East. The Phillies ended the homestand by getting swept in consecutive three-game series against the Blue Jays and Orioles, as they were outscored 38-19, ending with Sunday’s 2-1 loss to Baltimore. The good news for Philadelphia is it has by far baseball’s best road record at 23-9, compared with a 13-22 mark at home.
Dating to last season, the Phillies are 37-16 in their last 53 on the road, though they have dropped 19 of their last 28 in A.L. Parks and they’ve lost five straight games against left-handed starters.
Tampa Bay was idle Monday after ending a six-game road trip with consecutive wins over the Mets by scores of 3-1 on Saturday and 10-6 on Sunday. The Rays are on hot streaks of 8-3 overall, 79-32 at the Trop, 44-16 when hosting teams with a winning record, 9-3 as a favorite, 5-1 against lefty starters, 4-0 in interleague home games and 5-1 against the N.L. East.
Philadelphia needed only five games to oust Tampa Bay in last year’s Fall Classic and win its first World Series title since 1980. The Phillies won the opener 3-2 in Tampa, then the home team took the final four contests. Going back to 2000, these squads have met 12 times, with the host going 9-3. In fact, Philadelphia has lost five of its last six games at the Trop.
Moyer’s streak of three straight quality starts (2.84 ERA) came to a screeching halt in Wednesday’s 7-1 home loss to Toronto, as he gave up six runs on 10 hits in six innings.
The Phillies are 2-6 in Moyer’s last eight trips to the mound, 1-4 in his last five as an underdog and 1-4 in his last five interleague outings.
Moyer is 2-2 with a 5.40 ERA in six road games this season and 8-4 with a 2.84 ERA in 15 career regular-season starts against the Rays. The 46-year-old southpaw also faced Tampa Bay in Game 3 of last year’s World Series, allowing three runs on five hits in 6 1/3 innings of a 5-4 Philadelphia win.
Price lasted a season-high seven innings at Colorado on Wednesday, but also surrendered season highs of five runs and 10 hits in a 5-3 defeat, though he didn’t walk a batter after issuing 18 free passes in his first five starts. The Rays have won both of Price’s home starts this year, with the lefty surrendering one run in five innings in each game (1.80 ERA). Price came out of the bullpen twice in the World Series last year against the Phillies and gave up two runs (one earned) in 3 1/3 innings.
Philadelphia is riding “under” streaks of 17-8-1 in interleague play, 6-0 in A.L. ballparks, 9-4 as an underdog, 9-4 against southpaw starters, 7-2-1 in series openers and 5-1-1 on artificial turf. Also, with Moyer pitching, the “under” is on runs of 6-0 overall, 4-0-1 in interleague action, 16-6-1 as an underdog and 9-2 as a road pup. Likewise, the “under” for Tampa Bay is on streaks of 4-1 overall (all in interleague play), 12-4-1 as a favorite, 24-9-1 in interleague home games, 25-11 at home against lefty starters and 4-1 on Tuesday.
Finally, the under is 4-1-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings in Tampa Bay, including 2-0 in last year’s Fall Classic.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY and UNDER
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Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
Tuesday, June 23
Philadelphia at Tampa Bay (7:08 p.m. EDT). The first meeting of the season between the teams from last year's World Series, which the Phillies won in five games. Rays designated hitter Pat Burrell will face his former team after playing for the Phillies his first nine seasons.
STARS
Monday
-Brad Hawpe, Rockies, celebrated his 30th birthday with a three-run homer and Colorado beat the Los Angeles Angles 11-1 for their 17th victory in 18 games and club-record ninth straight on the road.
-Tim Redding, Mets, pitched into the eighth inning for his first win with New York as he beat St. Louis 6-4.
-Omar Santos, Mets, went 4 for 4 as New York topped St. Louis 6-4.
-Bobby Crosby, Athletics, drove in three runs, and Oakland ended a five-game losing streak in the Bay Bridge Series with a 5-1 victory over the San Francisco Giants.
SO LONG
Donald Fehr announced his retirement Monday as head of the baseball players' association after a quarter-century marked by a strike that canceled the World Series, record salaries and finally 14 years of labor peace. Fehr, who turns 61 next month, said he will leave the powerful union no later than the end of March. Fehr recommended that he be succeeded by union general counsel Michael Weiner, the No. 3 official and his longtime heir apparent. The move is subject to approval by the union's executive board and possible ratification by all players.
SIDELINED
Carlos Beltran was placed on the 15-day disabled list Monday, an enormous blow to a struggling New York Mets team already decimated by key injuries. The All-Star center fielder has an aching bone bruise on his right knee, the same injury that sidelined him for a couple of games in late May. An MRI exam Monday showed the bruise has gotten worse and Beltran said the doctor told him it just about doubled in size from last month.
PROTESTING
The New York Yankees filed an official protest with the commissioner's office after a disputed loss to the Florida Marlins. New York manager Joe Girardi protested Sunday's 6-5 defeat at Florida because of a Marlins substitution mix-up in the eighth inning. Teams have 24 hours after a game to submit a protest, and Major League Baseball spokesman Pat Courtney confirmed Monday that the Yankees met the deadline. Courtney said Bob DuPuy, baseball's chief operating officer, will rule on the protest. A decision is expected this week.
SITTING OUT
Chicago manager Lou Piniella held outfielders Alfonso Soriano and Milton Bradley out of the starting lineup in Monday night's 2-0 loss to Atlanta so both could rest. Bradley struck out as a pinch hitter. With a makeup game with the Atlanta Braves, the Cubs are playing 22 straight days, a streak that began after a June 16 rainout against the White Sox. Soriano, who leads the team with 14 homers, is hitting .153 in 118 at-bats over his last 27 games, dropping the left fielder's average to .224. Piniella also gave his leadoff hitter a day off May 23.
RED-HOT ROCKIES
Colorado beat the Angels 11-1 for their 17th victory in 18 games. Since having their 11-game winning streak snapped, the Rockies have won six straight. They improved to 19-5 under manager Jim Tracy, who took over when Clint Hurdle was fired.
SPEAKING
"We have to believe. We have to be optimistic that we can stay competitive. We have to guard against that particular mind-set that might permeate in the clubhouse that, man, there's not much left.'' - New York Mets manager Jerry Manuel after the team put Carlos Beltran on the 15-day disabled list.
MLB Series - Tigers vs Cubs
Hot teams are usually a good baseball betting pick to go with, but what happens when you have two teams playing well? This is the scenario that faces those who are making an online sports bet this week when the Chicago Cubs head to Detroit for a three-game set with the Tigers.
Carlos Zambrano (4-2, 3.44) vs Edwin Jackson (6-4, 2.39) (7:05 PM ET)
Neither of these pitchers has faced the opposition, but both are tossing the ball very well as of late. Zambrano has earned a no-decision in three of his last four outings, but he hasn’t allowed more than three runs in five starts since returning from the disabled list. Jackson is second in the American League in ERA, but he should have a better record as the Tigers have scored more than three runs for him in over a month. Zambrano is tough on the road, but you have to give the betting edge to Jackson at home in what should be a low-scoring affair, for all you betting management players.
Pick: Tigers
Rich Harden (4-3, 5.27) vs Rick Porcello (8-4. 3.54) (7:05 PM ET)
Harden was pounded in his last start as he gave up seven runs in five innings against Cleveland, but maybe a road trip is what he needs to get his mojo back; Harden is 2-0 away from Wrigley Field with a 2.84 ERA in three starts. He’ll be facing the rookie Porcello, who has won seven of his last eight decisions, and will be meeting the Cubs for the first time. Harden is 3-1 in five career meetings with the Tigers, but he hasn’t been consistent at all this year, which makes it difficult to select the Cubs as one of your baseball picks.
Pick: Tigers
Ted Lilly (7-4, 3.04) vs Armando Galarraga (3-7, 5.62) (1:05 PM ET)
Lilly has been on fire lately, posting a 2-0 record with a 1.31 ERA in his last five starts, but the Tigers have been a thorn in his side as he is 2-3 in six starts with a 3.96 ERA against Detroit. Galarraga has fallen off a bit since last year’s success, and he hasn’t won a decision in almost two months. He’s also struggled at home with a 2-3 record and a 5.35 ERA in six starts at Comerica Park, so you should avoid the Tigers’ baseball lines on Thursday.
Pick: Cubs