Tuesday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Cliff Lee (6-3, 2.39), Seattle Mariners
Complete game winning efforts in three of your last four starts will always land you on this list. Lee has been dominant of late and contending teams are salivating over trade possibilities.
Seattle’s southpaw most recently silenced NL opponent Chicago in a complete game shutout. Lee positioned himself with an 0-2 count to 19 Cubs during the game.
“You just don’t see that,” manager Don Wakamatsu said. “Pretty special.”
Lee is 6-1 over his last seven starts and is 4-0 with a 1.26 ERA in his last four at Yankee Stadium.
Brandon Morrow (5-5, 4.50), Toronto Blue Jays
Morrow had a rough start to the 2010 campaign, which eventually led him to a minor-league assignment, but the hard-throwing righty has righted the ship recently.
Morrow is only 2-1 in his last five starts but didn’t yield more than two runs in any of them and went at least 6.0 innings in each. He allowed a total of five runs during that stretch (34.0 innings, 1.32 ERA) with no homers while recording 25 strikeouts.
"This kid is just going to get better all the time," manager Cito Gaston said. "We're talking No. 1 or 2 starter one of these days as far as rotation. He's got that kind of stuff."
Slumping
Dontrelle Willis (2-2, 4.90), Arizona Diamondbacks
Willis went to Arizona looking for a fresh start for his career but things have remained the same. The lefty only lasted 2.1 innings in his most recent outing after walking seven hitters.
"I can't try to be too fine," Willis said. "I just have to hit the target. Everybody's been asking, but I just have to do it. I have to be aggressive. I have to hit the target."
Willis’ control problems have equated to 18 walks in his last 21.1 innings on the mound. Neither he nor the team has won a game (0-3) since his first start with the Diamondbacks on June 5. Willis is 1-3 in five career starts versus St. Louis with a hefty 5.53 ERA.
Matt Cain (6-6, 2.72), San Francisco Giants
San Fran’s No. 2 starter is usually in the “Streaking” segment of this article but Cain has struggled over his last two starts. The right-hander was knocked out of a game last Thursday after giving up seven earned runs to the Astros in only 2.2 innings of work.
Houston touched Cain up for nine hits and two bombs in that 7-5 loss. Cain has lost both of his last starts and combined for only five strikeouts in those two games.
MLB RoundUp For 6/29
By Dan Bebe
National League
Mets (-125) @ Marlins with a total of 9.5
No lack of familiarity, here. Nate Robertson is set to make his 4th start against the Mets this season, already, and he's trending down, down, down against this club, in particular. Back on April 8, he allowed a run in 5 innings; on May 15, he allowed 3 runs (2 earned) in 5.2 innings; and on June 5, he allowed 5 runs in 4.2 frames. Which Robertson do we see in this one? Well, he's not very good, so any time he has success, it's usually a bit of a tight-rope act. He doesn't give up many homers, a lefthanded sinkerballer, but he puts a lot of guys on base, and doesn't go deep in games. Takahashi, on the other side, makes his 2nd start against the Fish, and they cleaned his clock, predominantly with the longball. The total is where I looked first, wanting to take an Over, but at 9.5, no real value, there. On the side, it's ugly all around - enjoy, Puerto Ricans, I won't be watching this one. Leans: Over
Phillies @ Reds (-130) with a total of 9.5
Ramon Hernandez is 3-for-8 off Blanton with 2 RBI since '05.
When Mike Leake doesn't walk a ton of batters, he's very, very tough. This will be a test for him, though, given the Phils star power, and those power-hitting lefties. Leake is coming off a nice start against the A's, and really has been near perfect this year, aside from 3 poor starts, 2 of which came against the Dodgers. Blanton, who has some ugly numbers on the season, is indeed trending up a tad, though he's still giving up homers, and that doesn't bode well for a game with the Reds. Power lefty bats on both sides, in this one, with Joey Votto and Jay Bruce definite threats on the Cincinnati side. I wonder if the Under doesn't have some legs, if indeed Blanton is putting the pieces together. Leans: Reds, Under
Nationals @ Braves (-185) with a total of 9
Christian Guzman was 8-for-13 off Lowe with an RBI;
Nyjer Morgan is 7-for-13 off Lowe.
I'm basically disregarding those player numbers, since this is a total mis-match. Craig Stammen is below average, and the odds of him putting together a great start against a solid team like Atlanta seems somewhat slim. Lowe's been pitching well, including 7 shutout innings against the White Sox in a game Atlanta would eventually lose. Still, he's getting guys out, and he's doing it without a ton of damage behind him. That being said, he's too expensive for me. Leans: None
Pirates @ Cubs (-245) with a total of N/A
REMATCH ALERT! Another game we'll forgo the player matchups in favor of the data from this year. Ted Lilly makes his 4th start against the Pirates. He allowed 4 runs in 6 innings of a 4-2 loss in early May, 3 runs in 7 innings of a 4-3 win 2 weeks later, and finally 3 runs in 7.2 innings of a 3-2 loss on June 1st. So, Lilly has been decent, if unspectacular in all 3 of his starts, but those Cubbies just kept finding ways to lose. Unfortunately for us, the Cubs probably couldn't play any worse than they did in those series against Pittsburgh, and while Jeff Karstens beat Lilly in the 3-2 game in June, and has been relatively serviceable, considering the lines we see, the Pirates just can't win games. Leans: None
Astros @ Brewers (-255) with a total of 7.5
Michael Bourn is 5-for-14 off Gallardo;
Hunter Pence is 5-for-16 off Gallardo.
This total of 7.5 might not be low enough, believe it or not. Brett Myers is 4-1 with a 1.94 ERA lifetime against the Brewers, including 6 innings of 2-run ball earlier this year. That game ended with 7 combined runs, and that was with Dave Bush pitching for the Brewers. Consider, then, that Gallardo is rolling, has struck out 31 in his last 3 starts, and walked just 5. He's 5-2 with a 2.30 ERA lifetime against the 'Stros, who come into this series as cold as ever. The concern, obviously, is that Milwaukee hits a homer with a few guys on base, but I'm confident that Myers can keep things within reason. Leans: Under
D'backs @ Cardinals (-290) with a total of 8
Albert Pujols is 4-for-10 with an RBI off Willis since '05.
I could go into more depth on the player numbers, but is anyone really going to take a side in this one? Too expensive for the Cards, even the run line, and Dontrelle is a total mess. He's walked, and this is almost unbelievable, 17 men in his last 3 starts, spanning 11.1 innings. I love the D-Train, but he can't be a starter. He can't. This total is intriguingly low, to the point where I almost feel like the D'backs get shut out, but I'm not willing to take any chances in a game with Dontrelle. Leans: None
Rockies @ Padres (-120) with a total of 6.5
David Eckstein was 3-for-8 off Hammel before 2010;
Tony Gwynn Jr was 3-for-8 off Hammel with an RBI before 2010;
Nick Hundley was 4-for-7 off Hammel with a HR before 2010.
For some reason, I really want to make a play on this game, but one isn't jumping out right away. Hammel gave up 4 runs to the Padres back at the start of the season, but he's a much hotter pitcher now than he was, then. He struggled with the Red Sox, but everyone's been doing their fair share of that, lately. How does Hammel bounce back? Does Wade LeBlanc find a way to bounce back, himself, off a start against the Rays where he allowed 11 hits? That total is scary-low, especially since both guys are coming off less-than-stellar starts. Leans: Over
Dodgers @ Giants (-145) with a total of 7.5
Blake Dewitt was 4-for-10 off Cain with a HR and 2 RBI before 2010;
Andre Ethier was batting .545 in 33 AB off Cain before 2010;
Rafael Furcal was 9-for-25 off Cain between '05 and '10.
Matt Cain is a career 0-7 pitcher against LA. He hasn't been awful, by any stretch, but just hasn't gotten it done on the right nights. He hasn't faced the Dodgers this season, but I can't imagine things are all that different. He's still putting up great stats, but still can't get any run support, and he's coming off his worst start of the year, in Houston. John Ely, on the other side is trending back up, as he pitched very, very well against the Angels in a narrow loss, but he looked like he was going to the change-up more often, and I wonder if he doesn't utilize it quite a bit in this one. Leans: Dodgers
American League
Mariners @ Yankees (-160) with a total of 7.5
Derek Jeter is 4-for-11 with a HR and 3 RBI off Lee since '05;
Nick Swisher is 6-for-18 off Lee since '05;
Mark Teixeira is 6-for-19 with 3 RBI off Lee since '05.
This is one of the absolute cheapest prices you will ever see for the Yankees at home, when you're not looking at Vazquez on the hill. Phil Hughes is 10-1, people! This line, to me, qualifies as a tad fishy. I know Cliff Lee is among the best pitchers in baseball, but the Mariners' offense is an embarrassment (as evidenced by their work against Narveson in Milwaukee), and while Hughes has been more human lately, these are still the Yankees at home. What's going on here, I have to wonder. Leans: Mariners
Athletics (-120) @ Orioles with a total of 8.5
This is sort of interesting -- Dallas Braden, somehow, is 5-1 with a 1.41 ERA in his career against the Orioles. You almost wouldn't think a guy this young would have 6 decisions against a team from another Division, but here we are. Braden went just 4 innings against Baltimore earlier this year, allowing just an unearned run in a game the A's would eventually lose, 5-1. Braden had a sore ankle in that contest, so he should be pretty excited to face this team that he's just dominated. Brian Matusz is 1-1 with a 7.15 ERA against Oakland, and this is his 3rd start against them this year. He allowed 3 runs in 6.1 frames of a win in mid-April, then gave up 6 runs in 5 innings of a loss in late May, at home. He's been pretty inconsistent, typical for a young guy, and I'd be jumping at the A's if they hadn't lost Braden's last 8 starts, and if the O's weren't suddenly "warm." Leans: A's
Blue Jays (-120) @ Indians with a total of 8.5
Aaron Hill is 4-for-10 with an RBI off Carmona.
REMATCH ALERT! This one is a surprising rematch, I'd say, given the two pitchers and the two teams. These two faced off on May 5th in a game where Fausto Carmona appeared to out-pitch Morrow, only to lose the game after he departed. Since then, though, Morrow has come on very strong. He's been red hot over his last 5 starts, including 8 shutout innings against the Cards in Toronto. Carmona has been solid against the Jays in his career, 2-0 with a 2.96 ERA, so I wonder if this total of 8.5 isn't a little high. I don't much care for the sides in this one, since it could really go either way on a solo homer. Leans: Under
Rays @ Red Sox (-125) with a total of 9.5
Hank Blalock is batting .354 with 2 HR and 7 RBI off Lackey since '05;
Carlos Pena is 5-for-15 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Lackey since '05;
J.D. Drew is batting .417 off Shields with 2 HR and 6 RBI;
David Ortiz is batting .391 off Shields with 2 HR and 7 RBI.
The player numbers look pretty even, but the historical data for the pitchers wouldn't seem to say so. James Shields is 4-8 against the Red Sox with a 5.02 ERA, and Lackey is 10-3 against the Rays with a 3.71 ERA. This is the 3rd start for each starter against the other team, and Shields has given up 6 runs in just about 15 innings (his team went 1-1 in those games), and Lackey has allowed 10 runs in 11 innings, though 8 of those came in the first start. The Red Sox are dealing with a wild slew of injuries, but they're winning. Tampa is mostly healthy, but they're losing. Leans: Red Sox
White Sox (-135) @ Royals with a total of 9
A.J. Pierzynski was batting .423 off Bannister with 2 HR and 4 RBI prior to 2010;
Carlos Quentin was 4-for-8 off Bannister with 2 HR and 4 RBI before this year;
Alex Rios was 3-for-6 off Bannister before 2010;
Yuny Betancourt was 5-for-10 with a HR and 6 RBI off Floyd before 2010;
Alberto Callaspo was 3-for-7 with a HR and 2 RBI off Floyd before this season.
This is a battle of futility, if you're going on historical numbers. Gavin Floyd is a career 1-7 with a 5.53 ERA against the Royals, including 2 dismal outings against KC this season, already. Of course, he's in his typical June bloom, so he seems primed to pitch a bit better in this one. Brian Bannister is coming off a superb start against Stephen Strasburg and the Nats, but he's 4-5 with a 7.91 ERA lifetime against the White Sox. After watching both teams flounder yesterday, trying to score (but luckily our Royals held on for the win), I've gotta think someone scores some runs. Leans: White Sox, Over
Tigers @ Twins (-120) with a total of 10
Miguel Cabrera was 6-for-15 with a HR and 6 RBI off Blackburn;
Magglio Ordonez is 4-for-10 off Blackburn;
Joe Mauer is 8-for-17 with 2 HR and 10 RBI off Galarraga;
Denard Span is 6-for-13 with 2 RBI off Galarraga.
I feel like I just want to keep fading Galarraga until he completely blows up, though I realize that's not necessarily the best way to go about hitting a winner. Still, this one feels a little more sound. Galarraga is 1-5 with a 5.48 lifetime ERA against the Twinkies, and Blackburn is 3-3 with a 3.78 ERA against Detroit. Blackburn is significantly better at home than on the road, as well, and his brutal season ERA is giving us a pretty workable line, here. Leans: Twins
Rangers @ Angels (-120) with a total of 9.5
Michael Young is 6-for-18 with a HR and 5 RBI off Pineiro since '05;
Erick Aybar is 5-for-11 off Feldman;
Torii Hunter is 5-for-16 with 5 RBI off Feldman;
Mike Napoli is 10-for-18 with a HR and 5 RBI off Feldman.
Big series in Anaheim, that's for ding dang sure. I think the one true question we need to ask ourselves about this game is, "Can Texas score enough runs to make up for Feldman sucking?" Recent history would seem to indicate that, yes, they can. Feldman is still sporting an ERA over 5 runs, and he's coming off giving up 5 runs on 12 hits to the pathetic Pirates, but Texas is averaging almost 8 runs per game over the last week, Josh Hamilton is the hottest player in the World, and they're suddenly 17 games over .500. The Angels have been no slouches, offensively, either, so they would seem to be ready to tackle Feldman. That total is a tad inflated, though, so I can't advocate an "over" bet, even though I want to. Leans: Angels, Over
Tuesday MLB Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Tuesday baseball card is loaded with plenty of important matchups, including the top three teams in the AL East facing some of the league's top pitchers. Over in the National League, the Phillies and Reds continue their series at the Great American Ballpark. We'll start in the Bronx with the Yankees taking on a pitcher that could be donning pinstripes in the future.
Mariners at Yankees - 7:05 PM EST
The Bombers return home from a successful road trip that saw the defending champs win four of the final five games against the Diamondbacks and Dodgers. New York was able to rally from a four-run deficit in the ninth inning of Sunday's 8-6 triumph at Los Angeles, while Seattle comes to town losers of two straight.
Cliff Lee (6-3, 2.39 ERA) has delivered consecutive complete games in home victories over the Reds and Cubs, allowing just one earned run. The former Cy Young Award winner has been the subject of rumors to be traded prior to the All-Star Break, perhaps to one of the Big Apple teams. Lee is certainly comfortable pitching at Yankee Stadium, with his teams (Phillies and Indians) winning four straight over the Yanks in the Bronx.
The Yankees' hurler with the best numbers is not CC Sabathia or Andy Pettitte. Instead, it's right-hander Philip Hughes (10-1, 3.17), who hasn't lost since May 22. Hughes received extra rest in between starts to keep fresh during the season, as he last started in a June 19 win over the Mets. The Yankees are a perfect 7-0 in Hughes' seven home starts, while outscoring opponents by an average of five runs/game.
This is the first meeting between these two clubs this season, as the Yankees grabbed six of ten matchups. New York has owned Seattle in the Bronx, going 9-1 the last ten meetings at home.
Rays at Red Sox - 7:10 PM EST
Two teams going in opposite directions hook up at Fenway Park as the road team has dominated this series in 2010. The Rays pulled off a four-game sweep in Boston back in April, but the Sox picked up a measure of revenge with a three-game broom job at Tropicana Field in May. Tampa Bay is coming off a disappointing home series loss to Arizona in which the Rays knocked out only seven hits in three games.
The Rays look to rediscover their offense against John Lackey (8-3, 4.69 ERA), who has been nearly unbeatable at home (6-1). Lackey is coming off an 8-6 loss at Colorado, allowing 10 hits and five earned runs in 6.2 innings, his fourth road defeat in five starts. The lone away victory in this stretch came at Tampa Bay in late May, limiting the Rays to two runs in 6.1 innings of an 11-3 blowout.
James Shields (6-7, 4.55 ERA) has not seen the win column since beating the Yankees on May 20, a span of seven starts. Not much has gone right for Shields when he takes the mound at Fenway, as the Rays are 1-4 in his last five starts in Boston. The only win came in Tampa Bay's April sweep, despite Shields allowing nine hits and four runs in 6.2 innings of a 6-5 victory.
The Rays' offense has tallied 17 runs in the last seven games (2-5), while cashing the 'under' five times. The Red Sox are 12-2 the previous 14 home contests, as the 'under' is on a 5-2 run the last seven in this span.
Phillies at Reds - 7:10 PM EST
Philadelphia and Cincinnati play the second of a three-game set in southern Ohio as both teams look to make up ground in their respective divisions. The Phillies send out veteran Joe Blanton, who has pitched better over his last two starts.
Blanton (3-5, 6.53 ERA) struggled to find consistency this season, but has been a reliable option in home victories over the Twins and Indians by allowing six earned runs. That is a stark contrast from the nine runs and 13 hits given up at Boston in a 10-2 thrashing. Blanton's road numbers are terrible, as the ex-Athletics righty owns a road ERA of 9.27 to go along with a 1-3 mark.
Rookie Mike Leake (5-1, 2.92 ERA) bounced back from two subpar outings in a quality start at Oakland. The former Arizona State star scattered five hits and one earned run in six innings of an extra-innings win over the A's, improving Cincinnati's record to 9-5 in Leake's starts this season. Leake had pitched fantastic at home until allowing 10 earned runs in 10.1 against the Giants and Dodgers his last two times at the Great American Ballpark. The 'under' is a solid 6-2 in Leake's eight home outings this season.
The Phillies own a 2-8 mark the last 10 road games against National League opponents, while hitting the 'under' seven times. The Reds are a strong 8-1 the last nine home contests as a favorite of $1.40 or less.
Tigers at Twins - 8:10 PM EST
As things heat up in the AL Central, Detroit and Minnesota need to make every game count to avoid a do-or-die contest in October for the right to play in the postseason. The two teams are separated by a ½ game entering Monday action, as the two starting pitchers are headed in different directions.
Nick Blackburn (6-5, 6.10 ERA) hasn't won since May 27 against the Yankees, while the righty has allowed five earned runs or more in four of his last five starts. Luckily for Blackburn, he is pitching at Target Field in which he owns a 4-0 mark and ERA of 3.19. After giving up six runs in a 9-0 blowout loss at Detroit last May, Blackburn has yielded only five runs in his last three starts against the Tigers, all victories.
The Tigers counter with Armando Galarraga (3-1, 3.68 ERA), who has turned into an automatic victory when he takes the mound. Detroit is 6-1 in his seven starts, while the Tigers have outscored the opposition by two runs/game in his outings. Galarraga has delivered only one quality start in his last four trips to the hill since his near perfect game on June 2, but the Tigers have won each time.
Detroit has lost six straight road series, while going 6-12 in this span on the highway. With the lack of offense recently, Minnesota has cashed the 'under' in six of its previous eight contests.
vegasinsider.com
Diamond Trends - Tuesday
By Vince Akins
Rangers at Angels – The Rangers are 0-6 since September 29, 2009 when Scott Feldman starts after he had a WHIP of at least 2 his last start for a net profit of $695 when playing against. The Angels are 7-0 since September 18, 2009 as a favorite after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $700.
Nationals at Braves – The Braves are 9-0 since April 10, 2009 when Derek Lowe starts as a home favorite after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $900. The Braves are 9-0 since September 15, 2009 as a 140+ favorite when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $900. The Braves are 8-0 since May 01, 2010 at home when they are off a win in which they never trailed and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $800.
Astros at Brewers – The Astros are 0-9 since April 19, 2009 as a dog after a win in which they had 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Brewers are 0-4 since June 11, 2009 when Yovani Gallardo starts after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $595 when playing against.
Diamondbacks at Cardinals – The Cardinals are 7-0 since April 12, 2010 when Adam Wainwright starts at home for a net profit of $700. The Cardinals are 0-6 since May 19, 2010 after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent as a favorite for a net profit of $835 when playing against.
Pirates at Cubs – The Pirates are 6-0 since September 28, 2009 as a 140+ dog when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $930. The Cubs are 0-6 since September 16, 2009 as a home favorite when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $1020 when playing against.
Dodgers at Giants – The Dodgers are 6-0 since May 06, 2010 when John Ely starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $650. The Giants are 0-5 since August 09, 2009 when Matt Cain starts vs a team that lost their starters last two starts for a net profit of $650 when playing against.
Blue Jays at Indians – The Blue Jays are 0-7 since May 23, 2009 on the road after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $750 when playing against. The Blue Jays are 7-0 since August 14, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem when they are off a loss in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs for a net profit of $730. The Indians are 0-7 since September 03, 2009 when Fausto Carmona starts as a dog after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $700 when playing against.
Athletics at Orioles – The Athletics are 0-8 since May 30, 2010 when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $828 when playing against. The Athletics are 0-8 since June 10, 2009 when Dallas Braden starts in June for a net profit of $880 when playing against. The Orioles are 8-0 since June 18, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem after a win in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $835.
Rockies at Padres – The Rockies are 0-8 since September 12, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem after a win in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $805 when playing against. The Rockies are 4-0 since June 04, 2009 when Jason Hammel starts on the road in June for a net profit of $525
Rays at Red Sox – The Rays are 0-9 since June 07, 2009 on the road vs a divisional foe that is ahead of them in the divisional standings for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Rays are 0-6 since April 23, 2009 when James Shields starts after giving up 2 or more home runs at home for a net profit of $905 when playing against. The Red Sox are 6-0 since April 24, 2010 when John Lackey starts at home for a net profit of $600
Phillies at Reds – The Phillies are 0-5 since August 01, 2009 when Joe Blanton starts when he is off a start in which he needed fewer than 3.5 pitches per batter for a net profit of $636 when playing against.
White Sox at Royals – The White Sox are 0-7 since May 27, 2009 when Gavin Floyd starts on the road after more strike outs than hits allowed at home for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Royals are 0-11 since May 13, 2009 when Brian Bannister starts as a dog after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1100 when playing against.
Tigers at Twins – The Tigers are 8-0 since June 19, 2009 when Armando Galarraga starts in June for a net profit of $830. The Twins are 6-0 since July 10, 2009 when Nick Blackburn starts at home after his team won the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $615.
Mariners at Yankees – The Mariners are 0-8 since May 16, 2010 on the road after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $810 when playing against. The Yankees are 11-0 since April 21, 2009 as a favorite after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1100.