Tuesday's Classic Action
By Josh Jacobs
When we say that the baseball season is a marathon it’s no joke. Most teams have 30-plus games left on the schedule until the apex (All-Star game) of the mid-season break is reached. But let’s not get ahead of our selves because beginning on Tuesday, multiple pairings between the Red Sox-Yankees and Phillies-Mets are expected to bring a whirl wind of fresh air through the betting window.
N.Y. Yankees at Boston – 7:10 p.m. EDT
Whether you can’t stand the hype that this matchup brings or you’re an avid supporter of either side there’s no denying the fact that this classic duel brings drama to what becomes an otherwise dull time of the year.
Boston’s (33-24, +307) next slinger in line for mound duties has Josh Beckett (6-2, 4.09 ERA) looking to pick up his seventh win. Despite a 4-0 record in his last six starts, Beckett suffered his worst outing this season in a 16-11 slugfest against the Yanks in Boston. The Apr. 25 defeat had the Pinstripes laying the lumber on Beckett’s ball for 10 hits and eight runs. But the shelling was short lived as a comeback win in the Bronx on May 5 had the right-hander going six innings while holding New York to scoring just three runs.
Beckett is 2-0 at home with a .236 BAA in ’09. The Red Sox are 4-1 in all five of their ace’s starts at Fenway. Most books haven’t taken much of a chance, installing Beckett anywhere from a $1.91 favorite to a season high, $2.70 favorite (versus Baltimore on Apr. 18, winning 6-4).
A.J. Burnett (4-2, 4.69) will represent New York (33-23, -25) in the leading defensive role. Coming off two wins against Texas in consecutive starts (giving up a combined three runs and 11 hits), Burnett’s 29 Ks in the last four outings has helped push the 10-year veteran into the No. 9 strikeout spot in the AL.
The sharp contrast in Burnett’s numbers can be found in the wins and losses department. During victories, the righty has been able to craft his pitches past batters for a .219 BAA, working for a 4.3 strikeout to ball ratio and receiving an outstanding 1.06 WHIP for his accomplishments. The bad is a 6.59 ERA, 1.7 strikeout to ball ratio and a 1.54 WHIP when taking the 'L'.
On the offensive front, Nick Swisher (.250 BA) seems to be spotting the ball with confidence. In the last six games, Swisher is 9-for-18 with six RBIs. This coming from a guy who tanked in May batting .150. Mark Teixeira (.286 BA) has also been the beacon of success, continuing his effective season, and generating seven RBIs in just the last week of alone.
The Red Sox will kickoff this three-game home stand harboring a perfect 5-0 performance in head-to-head matchups this season. Boston has been installed as the favorite in all but one game versus the Yanks this year. It was on May 5 that the Sox caught their bitter rival off balance yet again as $1.15 visiting underdogs. The total cleared the ‘over’ 9 ½ runs as Beckett struck out five and walked one in the 7-3 ‘W’.
Looking back at both starters, Beckett has had the ‘under’ cash in at 4-1 in his last five starts while Burnett is an ‘under’ machine in his last six at 4-1-1. The ‘under’ is 19-7-1 in Boston’s last 27. The Sox are also in control of a 9-3 advantage in their last 12 meetings against the Yankees spanning back to July of last year. During this stretch, Boston has brought in 6.8 runs per game.
One more point before we move on; take into account that the Red Sox are 9-2 when coming off a win in their prior contest (in the last 11 of these scenarios) against the Yankees.
Most books have opened Boston as a $1.35 home favorite with a total of 9 1/2-attached.
Philadelphia at N.Y. Mets – 7:10 p.m. EDT
The Mets (30-25, +101) are looking to make this their fourth win in five meetings against divisional rival, Philadelphia. And what better way to accomplish that feat then to send out your No. 1 pitcher to the mound.
Johan Santana (7-3, 2.00) is arguably the best pitcher in baseball. He might not be entertaining the masses like Roy Holliday’s 10 wins have, but the lefty has done more then just a 7-3 record indicates.
Some of the problems Santana is facing stems from receiving 3.4 runs per game of support from the lineup. In the first six games of June, a team, .242 BA attached to 3.8 runs per game can’t be considered adequate at the Major League level. While Jeremy Reed and David Wright have began the month batting .475, eight players getting 10 or more at bats so far have rung in for a BA below the .235 mark!
Just once have books installed Santana as the underdog. That was back on May 22 in a 5-3 win over Boston as a $1.07 visiting ‘dog. Unfortunately for backers on the Mets during these starts, a minute profit of +74 units has been offset thanks to losing prices ranging on the high end of the board (from a low -125 to a high, -283 against Washington).
Coming off a loss this season, Santana is 3-0. His most recent defeat was recorded way back last week-Tuesday-when lost to Pittsburgh even after giving up three runs on an 85 pitch count. More importantly is that New York's rotation was involved in a rainout and off-day. As a result, Santana hasn't pitched in almost seven full days. Here's the kicker; on six-plus days of rest, Santana is 10-2 with a 3.61 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 8.9 strickes per nine innings all in 16 starts of this criteria
It was back on May 6 that the Mets go-to-guy on the mound last made an appearance versus Philly. Santana threw serious stuff, allowing two hits and no runs, his best performance on the season.
But don’t be surprised because the Phillies exited the month of May batting a cold, .259 BA. There’s exception to the Philly rule at the plate however. An improved 5.3 runs per game (148 RBIs versus opponents’ 133) for a 17-11 record during the month proved more important then just batting averages.
Trouble for New York comes in the form of Philadelphia tearing through the standings with a 21-8 road record. In the midst of a 10-game road trip, the Phillies have scored five runs per game en route to a 5-2 routine in the last seven.
The Phillies will field general purpose slinger, J.A. Happ (4-0, 2.48) as he continues to improve his numbers, stamina and stock in the No. 4 spot. At least the Phillies’ bullpen is there to help out Happ, ranked seventh best with a 3.59 ERA. Arms like Clay Condrey, Ryan Madson and Scott Eyre represent the most solid part of the pen. These are three slingers coming together for a 2.36 ERA for 29 holds on the year.
One problem that can't be overlooked is closer Brad Lidge's (7.27 ERA) six blown saves this season, two in back-to-back appearances on June 5 and 6. In May, Lidge was responsible for choking on 13 runs allowed alone. Remember that this is a slinger who had 41 saves last year with not one blown save registered.
Individually, Happ is coming off an outstanding outing in San Diego in which he held down the opponent to four hits and no runs on 112 pitches (reverting back to improved stamina). But let’s not boast too much about the start given the Padres’ absence of hitting as WE know it.
Wagering on totals could be something to look at with several ‘under’ trends gaining popularity. For example, the ‘under’ is 12-3-1 in Philadelphia’s last 16 overall, the ‘under’ is 9-3 in Santana’s last 12 starts and the ‘under’ is 12-3-1 in the Phillies last 16 games following a win (following the Phils taking a 7-2 win over the Dodgers on Sunday).
The Mets are 10-3 in Santana’s last 13 home starts.
Sportsbetting.com has placed the home town Mets as $1.77 favorites. A total of eight runs has been set.
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NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia (33-22) at N.Y. Mets (30-25)
The Phillies continue a bicoastal 10-game road trip at new Citi Field when they open a three-game series against the rival Mets, with J.A. Happ (4-0, 2.48 ERA) slated to toe the slab for the visitors against Johan Santana (7-3, 2.00).
Philadelphia went 5-2 in Southern California last week, sweeping a three-game series from the Padres then splitting a four-game set with Los Angeles, concluding with Sunday’s 7-2 victory. The Phillies are 8-2 in their last 10 games overall and 13-4 in their last 17 on the highway.
Philadelphia continues to sport baseball’s best road record at 21-8. Furthermore, the defending World Series champions are on lengthy hot streaks of 57-28 overall, 35-16 as a visitor, 38-17 after a victory, 51-22 in series openers, 38-16 against winning teams, 20-7 after a day off and 8-2 versus N.L. East rivals. Meanwhile, New York is on upticks of 7-2 in divisional games, 5-1 at home, 15-5 as a favorite (5-0 as a home chalk) and 57-28 after an off day.
These rivals played a pair of two-game home-and-home series back in early May, with New York going 3-1 overall and 2-0 at home. Dating to last season, the Mets are on a 10-5 overall run in this rivalry, winning five of the last seven clashes in New York.
Happ pitched seven scoreless innings in Wednesday’s 5-1 victory in San Diego, scattering four hits and two walks. The young southpaw has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts, with the Phillies going 6-1 in those contests. They’re also 4-0 in Happ’s last four against the N.L. East, and he’s 2-0 with a 1.16 ERA on the road this season.
Happ has faced the Mets once in each of the last two seasons – both at home – and he didn’t make it out of the fifth inning in either game, giving up a combined seven runs in 8 2/3 innings, but Philadelphia split the two contests, losing 8-3 and winning 3-2.
Santana has been shaky by his standards in his last four starts, yielding a total of 15 runs (12 earned) in 26 innings (4.15 ERA). Regardless, the Mets are 3-1 during this four-game stretch, and with Santana pitching, they’re still on hot streaks of 20-7 overall, 4-1 in series openers and 10-3 at home, where the veteran southpaw is 4-1 with a 1.37 ERA in six starts this season.
Since being traded to the Mets prior to last year, Santana has faced the Phillies six times and delivered six quality starts, yielding a total of 12 earned runs in 43 1/3 innings (2.49 ERA). That includes a 1-0 home win on May 6, when Santana scattered two hits and a walk while striking out 10 in seven scoreless innings. New York is 3-0 in his last three starts versus Philly.
With Happ starting, the under is on stretches of 7-0 overall, 4-0 as an underdog and 4-0 against the N.L. East, while the under is 9-3 in Santana’s last 12 starts overall, 5-2 in his last seven at home and 8-1 in his last nine series openers.
Philadelphia carries “under” trends of 12-3-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 5-1 against the N.L. East, 5-0-1 in series openers, 7-2 as a ‘dog, 7-1 against lefty starters and 4-0 after a day off. Likewise, the Mets are on “under” runs of 4-1 overall, 6-1 as a favorite, 4-0 versus the N.L. East, 4-0-1 on Tuesday and 5-1 in series openers.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. METS and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (34-23) at Boston (33-24)
The Yankees make their second trek of the season to Fenway Park for a three-game series against the hated Red Sox, and for the second time in six weeks, New York’s A.J. Burnett (4-2, 4.69) will match up against Boston ace Josh Beckett (6-2, 4.09).
With the Red Sox idle last night, the Yankees took over sole possession of first place in the A.L. East with a 5-3 victory over Tampa Bay to close out a six-game home stand with a 4-2 record. New York enters this series on positive streaks of 19-6 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 7-1 against A.L. East foes and 11-4 versus right-handed starters.
Boston followed up a four-game winning streak (all on the road) by losing two of three at home to Texas over the weekend. Despite that, the BoSox are on upticks of 83-37 at home, 16-6 against the A.L. East, 25-12 as a favorite, 23-10 in series openers, 49-18 after a day off and 4-1 on Tuesday.
Although New York has a one-game lead over Boston in the standings, the Sox are a perfect 5-0 against the Bronx Bombers this season and have won six straight meetings dating to last year (4-0 at Fenway). This year, the Red Sox have scored a total of 38 runs against Yankee pitching.
Burnett is coming off consecutive victories over the Rangers (12-3 at home, 9-2 on the road), allowing a combined three runs and 11 hits in 13 innings (2.08 ERA). With the six-inning scoreless effort at Texas two starts ago, the veteran right-hander improved to 3-1 with a 4.78 ERA in five road starts in 2009.
Burnett’s worst road outing of the season came on April 25 in Boston, as he got rocked for eight runs in five innings, with New York losing 16-11. Still, he’s 5-0 with a 3.52 ERA in nine career starts against the Red Sox.
Beckett has been dominant in his last three outings, giving up only one earned run and 10 hits in 22 2/3 innings (0.40 ERA) with a 22-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In Tuesday’s 10-5 victory at Detroit, he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning and finished allowing just two hits in 7 2/3 frames. Boston improved to 5-1 in Beckett’s last six starts, all of them quality outings (three earned runs or fewer allowed in at least six innings pitched.
The Red Sox are 4-1 in Beckett’s five home outings this season and 6-1 in his last seven versus divisional rivals. Also, they’re 6-1 in his last seven starts against the Yankees, including that 16-11 victory over Burnett in April in which Beckett gave up eight runs in five innings. He came back 10 days later in New York and beat the Yanks 7-3, again surrendering 10 hits but only the three runs. Beckett is 8-4 with a 5.80 ERA in 14 career regular-season starts versus the Yankees.
The Yankees are on “under” stretches of 4-1-1 on the road, 8-3-1 against winning teams and 4-1-1 with Burnett pitching. Also, the Red Sox are on “under” runs of 19-7-1 overall, 6-1 at home, 4-0 as a favorite, 7-1 against righty starters, 4-0 after a day off, 4-1 in Beckett’s last five starts overall and 5-2-1 in his last eight at home. Lastly, four of the last five Yanks-Sox clashes in Beantown have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
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SCOREBOARD
Tuesday, June 9
N.Y. Yankees at Boston (7:10 p.m. EDT). The Yankees are 0-5 against their old rivals this season, but Alex Rodriguez missed all five games following hip surgery. New York has been on a tear since he returned to the lineup. A.J. Burnett pitches against Red Sox ace Josh Beckett, who flirted with a no-hitter in his previous start and has a 0.40 ERA in his past three outings.
STARS
Monday
-Jose Contreras, White Sox, allowed one hit in eight strong innings in his return to the majors as Chicago won the nightcap 6-1 to split a doubleheader with Detroit.
-Adam Lind, Blue Jays, homered twice and drove in four runs, and Toronto stopped a nine-game road losing streak by beating Texas 6-3.
-Sean West, Marlins, did not allow a hit until the seventh inning in his fourth career start and Florida beat Randy Johnson and San Francisco 4-0.
-David Ross, Braves, grounded an infield single to deep short that scored Jeff Francoeur and ended a game that lasted almost 5 hours as Atlanta edged Pittsburgh 7-6 in 15 innings.
-Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres, tied his career-high with four RBIs and San Diego beat Arizona 6-3 one night after losing an 18-inning marathon against the Diamondbacks.
SEEING THE BALL
David Ortiz's vision has checked out very well as the Boston Red Sox try to help him out of his season-long slump. The designated hitter received drops for dry eyes Monday, team spokesperson Pam Ganley said. Ortiz has two homers and 22 RBIs with a .197 batting average in 51 games. He has been dropped from third to sixth in the lineup, but has hit better recently. He has a six-game hitting streak with seven hits in 25 at-bats, raising his average from .185.
STAYING PUT
The Texas Rangers are sticking with manager Ron Washington, at least through 2010. The Rangers led the AL West and were tied with the New York Yankees for the best record in the American League heading into Monday's games. The Rangers have led their division for 33 days, their longest stretch since 1999. Washington, in his third season with the team, is 187-193 with Texas and is the fourth-longest tenured manager in Rangers history. He was hired in 2006 with a two-year contract with team options for 2009 and 2010.
DEMOLITION MAN
Part of Tiger Stadium's upper deck came crashing down Monday, nearly a decade after the final major league game there and hours after a judge refused to stop the historic ballpark's demolition. Crews used a backhoe to tear away chunks of the upper deck along the third-base line, causing debris to rain down as dozens of people gathered nearby to witness the destruction of a stadium that opened in 1912 as Navin Field and hosted pro baseball for 87 years.
SPARKLERS
The fireworks are coming back for the Washington Nationals, days after debris from some pyrotechnics fell on the local fire chief as he watched a game. District of Columbia Fire Chief Dennis Rubin ordered a halt to the fireworks after Sunday's game with the New York Mets. Team and fire officials met on Monday to review safety procedures. Authorities say the fireworks can resume Tuesday when the Nationals host the Cincinnati Reds.
LAUNCHING PAD
There were five or more homers hit at Yankee Stadium for the 10th time this season in New York's 5-3 win over Tampa Bay. There have been 105 homers in 29 games at the new ballpark, a sharp increase from the 160 last season at the original Yankee Stadium, and 63 have been hit to right and right-center.
SPEAKING
"If this was the 1980s, (none) of these guys would be in the big leagues right now, because if you hit .210-.230 and you can't execute, I don't think you should be out here. When you can't bunt, hit-and-run, squeeze and move the guy over, you better hit 40 home runs and drive in 140.'' - Chicago White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen after his team lost 5-4 in the opener of a doubleheader against the Detroit Tigers.
Tuesday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
By Covers.com
Streaking
Matt Cain (San Francisco Giants)
The last time Matt Cain took the mound, he admittedly gained inspiration from an impressive milestone that may not be repeated for awhile. Now, he'll attempt to set a personal record by winning a sixth consecutive decision.
The right-hander looks to keep pace for the NL lead in victories Tuesday night when the Giants open a three-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Cain (7-1, 2.27 ERA) pitched the second game of a doubleheader on Thursday after Randy Johnson became the 24th pitcher to win 300 games in a 5-1 win at Washington. The next closest active pitcher to the milestone is Philadelphia's 46-year-old Jamie Moyer, who has 250 victories.
Cain followed up Johnson's achievement by yielding one run and five hits with seven strikeouts in five innings before rain halted a 4-1 win over the Nationals in the top of the sixth.
"It motivated me," Cain told the Giants' official Web site. "To get the 300th win for R.J. was huge, so I was thinking, 'OK, we've got a lot of momentum. R.J. got that done for him. Let's keep it going on our side.'"
Cain, though, has put together his own outstanding run recently, going 5-0 with a 1.60 ERA in his last six starts to match his career high for consecutive winning decisions. He's also in position to tie Colorado's Jason Marquis for the league lead in wins.
Chris Carpenter (St. Louis Cardinals)
The St. Louis Cardinals are in the midst of their longest losing streak of the season. They hope another superb outing from Chris Carpenter and a visit to the Florida Marlins can stop it.
Carpenter looks to continue his stellar run Tuesday night when St. Louis opens a three-game series at Florida.
La Russa now looks to Carpenter (4-0, 0.71 ERA) to help the Cardinals while he attempts to extend his career-best start.
The right-hander was outstanding Thursday, throwing a three-hitter in a 3-1 win over Cincinnati. It was his 26th career complete game and first since Sept. 11, 2006.
"That's just him," La Russa told the Cardinals' official Web site. "He's really, really good. That's what happens when you're really good. You can do stuff like that."
Carpenter has been stellar against the Marlins (28-31), too. He's 3-0 with a 1.03 ERA in his last four starts against them, but hasn't faced them since a 2005 victory at Miami.
Slumping
Dontrelle Willis (Detroit Tigers)
Dontrelle Willis (1-3, 6.84) will counter for Detroit, trying to end a personal three-start losing streak. The left-hander struggled with his control Thursday, walking a season-high five and allowing five runs over 2 1-3 innings in a 6-3 defeat to Boston despite not giving up a hit.
"I threw a couple good pitches and I didn't get the calls, and I let myself get flustered," Willis said. "It was just mental."
Willis has no record and a 12.00 ERA in three lifetime starts against the White Sox, walking 12 in just six innings. He also hyperextended his right knee in his most recent start against them on April 11, 2008, that caused him to miss a month.
Brian Bannister (Kansas City Royals)
The Royals seek a good performance from Brian Bannister - something they haven't gotten lately from the right-hander.
Bannister (4-3, 4.97) was 4-1 with a 2.79 ERA in his first seven starts, but he has given up 15 runs in 8 2-3 innings while losing his last two outings. He didn't get out of the fourth inning of a 9-0 loss to Tampa Bay on Wednesday.
"This one was all my fault," Bannister said.
Bannister has been much better against the Indians, going 4-1 with a 2.40 ERA in seven career starts. He is 3-0 in four appearances at Progressive Field and has not allowed an earned run in three of them.
Debuting
Doug Mathis (Texas Rangers)
Doug Mathis (0-0, 0.00 ERA) is expected to make his first start of the season for Texas in place of Brandon McCarthy, who went on the disabled list with a stress fracture in his right shoulder blade.
Mathis, who went 1-1 with an 8.83 ERA in four starts for the Rangers in 2008, pitched a scoreless inning of relief at Boston on Sunday in his first appearance since being recalled from Triple-A Oklahoma City on Wednesday.
The right-hander will face Toronto for the first time.
Yankees, Red Sox Renew Hatred With First Place On The Line
By Sportspic.com
With the basketball in its Championship round, the NBA odds have been dominating the sports betting conversation recently. But the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox will face-off in a three-game series, which warrants plenty of attention. Here’s a breakdown of the three pitching matchups:
A.J. Burnett (4-2) vs Josh Beckett (6-2)
Interestingly enough, this will be a matchup of two pitchers who pitch better on the road than they do at home but that might not be relevant because of the matchup.
Burnett has started once against the Red Sox this season and he allowed eight earned runs (two home runs) in just five innings of work. Meanwhile, Beckett has made two starts against the Yankees and has given up 20 hits, five walks and 11 earned runs in 11 innings of work.
Expect more fireworks as these two take the mound on Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET.
Chien-Ming Wang (0-3) vs Tim Wakefield (7-3)
Chien-Ming Wang isn’t exactly having a great season. As a starter, his ERA is 23.60 this year as he’s given up 28 earned runs in just 10.2 innings pitched. Needless to say, there’s some room for improvement.
Although Wang still gave up five earned runs in his most recent start (4.2 innings pitched), there were some positive signs. He had five strikeouts to just one walk and he induced 10 groundballs to just six fly balls. To this point in the season, those groundball-to-fly ball ratios were inversed.
He’ll take on Tim Wakefield, who is 4-0 with a 3.00 ERA at home. Clearly, his knuckleball has danced around well at Fenway Park.
Wang and Wakefield will take the mound on Wednesday night at 7:10 PM ET.
C.C. Sabathia (5-3) vs Brad Penny (5-2)
Brad Penny is 5-2 but he might not be holding on to his starting spot for much longer. His ERA is at 5.85 and it’s even worse at home with at 6.51.
Meanwhile, Sabathia has been solid for the Yankees when pitching away from home this year. He’s 4-2 with a 3.07 and opposing hitters are batting just .217 against him when he’s on the road.
The Yankees clearly have the pitching edge in this contest and both pitchers will take the bump on Thursday at 7:10 PM ET.