Tuesday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
David Bush (4-7, 4.07 ERA), Milwaukee Brewers
Bush’s numbers aren’t going to blow bettors away but here at Covers, we fully support the "Just Win Baby" philosophy of Al Davis, and Bush has done that. The former Blue Jays prospect is on a six-game, quality start streak.
He sports a 2.40 ERA during the hot run and the under has cashed in his last four outings.
Tommy Hunter (6-0, 2.39 ERA), Texas Rangers
This Texas righty is flying a bit under the radar these days with rotation members C.J. Wilson and Cliff Lee grabbing most of the headlines. Hunter has been dynamite since rejoining the big league club in early June.
The Rangers are 7-1 in his eight starts and he’s yet to allow more than three runs in an outing this season.
Slumping
Mike Leake (6-1, 3.53 ERA), Cincinnati Reds
Leake’s drop in production was an inevitable. The kid was pitching out of his mind for the first half of the season and you’ve got to figure that right arm of his is getting tired.
The Reds don’t agree with us. Leake pitched the longest outing of his career in his last start, going 8.1 innings. He was fantastic through the first eight innings but the Phils knocked him around for five runs in the ninth inning.
He’s delivered duds in four of his last six starts and he owns a bloated 6.14 ERA over the cold streak.
Returning
Dallas Braden (4-7, 3.83 ERA), Oakland Athletics
It seems like a long time ago that Dallas Braden threw that perfect gem. He was pretty average after the game of his career and made his way to the disabled list in the last week of June. He complained of soreness in his pitching elbow but we’re not sure if that played a role in his shaky minor league rehab start.
Braden pitched 4.0 innings, allowed three runs and was taken out of the park twice.
Tuesday MLB Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Tuesday baseball card heats up with plenty of teams in playoff contention getting together. A pair of first-place teams gets together in Atlanta, while two clubs going in opposite directions meet in St. Louis. We'll start in the Big Apple for a rematch of last season's ALCS between the Halos and Bombers.
Angels at Yankees - 7:05 PM EST
These two squads hook up for the first time in three months as New York is slowly widening the gap in the AL East. The Yanks took two of three from the Rays to open up a three-game lead over Tampa Bay, while maintaining a 6 ½-game advantage over the Red Sox. The Angels fell short of a sweep against the Mariners, but still managed to take three of four from Seattle.
Phil Hughes (11-2, 3.65 ERA) makes his first start since the All-Star Break, going for just his second win since June 20. The Yankees' right-hander shut down the Mariners his last time out, scattering six hits and one earned run in seven innings of a 6-1 victory. Hughes has been consistent regardless of location, but possesses a 6-1 mark at home to go along with seven 'overs' in nine starts at Yankee Stadium. In seven of the eight home victories started by Hughes, the Yankees have won by at least two runs, including a 6-2 win over the Angels on April 15.
The two teams have split six meetings this season, as each team took two of three games at home. All six games have been decided by at least two runs, while the Yanks have won six of the last seven meetings in the Bronx.
Rangers at Tigers - 7:05 PM EST
Texas bounced back in a strong way after getting swept by woeful Baltimore prior to the All-Star Break. The Rangers grabbed three of four at Fenway Park from the Red Sox to maintain the 4 ½-game lead over the Angels in the AL West that Texas owned when the second half began. The Tigers, meanwhile, stubbed their toe in an ugly four-game sweep at Cleveland, but Detroit still remains in the mix of the AL Central race with Chicago and Minnesota.
Armando Galarraga (3-2, 4.45 ERA) has gone through a whirlwind first three months of the season for the Tigers. The Detroit right-hander has spent time in the minors, while toiling with a much-publicized missed perfect game against the Indians in early June. Galarraga was recalled from Triple-A Toledo for this start trying to get his game back on track after allowing 17 earned runs in his last four outings. The Tigers are 2-1 in Galarraga's three career starts against the Rangers, which included a 15-2 pounding of Texas last April.
The Rangers counter with Tommy Hunter (6-0, 2.39 ERA), who has been as automatic as any pitcher in baseball this season. Texas has won seven of his eight starts in 2010, including a 7-2 thumping at Boston his last time out. Hunter has delivered five straight quality starts, while allowing nine earned runs in this span (4-1). The righty shut down Detroit last season in Arlington, giving up five hits and one earned run in seven innings of a 5-2 victory.
The Rangers have dropped 11 straight meetings at Comerica Park, including an 0-6 mark last season. These two clubs split a four-game series in Arlington in late April as three of the contests finished 'over' the total.
Padres at Braves - 7:10 PM EST
San Diego travels east for the start of a six-game road trip in Atlanta against the leaders of the NL East. The Padres are pacing the NL West following a three-game sweep of the dreadful Diamondbacks, opening up a four-game advantage over the Rockies. The Braves are keeping their edge in the East after splitting a four-game set with the Brewers as both the Mets and Phillies went 1-3 over the weekend.
Jair Jurrjens (2-3, 4.75 ERA) has returned to the Braves' rotation with a vengeance, as Atlanta is 3-0 in his three starts since getting activated off the disabled list. Jurrjens turned in a gem his last time out against the Brewers, allowing six hits and an early solo homer from Corey Hart in a 2-1 victory. The righty will look for some revenge against a Padres club that racked him for eight earned runs in 3.1 innings of a 17-2 drubbing at Petco Park in April.
Wade LeBlanc (4-7, 3.30 ERA) looks for his first victory since April 12 against Seattle. The Padres' left-hander owns a respectable ERA, but was touched up for four earned runs and three homers in a 4-2 setback at Colorado prior to the break. LeBlanc's overall ERA has been helped by playing at Petco Park, as the southpaw owns a 5.12 ERA on the highway in six away starts. This game will be a homecoming of sorts for LeBlanc, who grew up in Louisiana and played his college ball at Alabama.
Despite San Diego coming out with a 17-2 thrashing of Atlanta in the opener of their last series in Southern California, the Braves rebounded with two victories while outscoring the Padres, 12-3 in the final two games. San Diego took two of three at Turner Field last season, winning as underdogs of $2.15 and $1.90.
Phillies at Cardinals - 8:10 PM EST
St. Louis busted out of the All-Star Break with an impressive four-game sweep of Los Angeles, topped off by a walk-off win on Sunday. The Cards pulled into first place inside the NL Central ahead of the Reds heading into Monday's action, while the Phillies are going backwards fast. Philadelphia dropped three of four games at Chicago, while its lone win came with a ninth-inning rally in Saturday's 4-1 victory.
Former Cy Young Award winner Chris Carpenter (10-3, 3.16 ERA) rebounded from two subpar starts to shut down the Dodgers his last time out, becoming the second Cardinals' pitcher to win 10 games this season (Adam Wainwright). Carpenter's home numbers speak for themselves, winning seven of nine decisions at Busch Stadium. The ace hasn't seen the Phillies since 2006, but he does face a Philadelphia team batting just .211 over its last ten games.
The ageless Jamie Moyer (9-9, 4.88 ERA) tries to put his last start against the Cubs behind him, allowing six earned runs in three innings of a 12-6 road defeat. Following a nice three-week run in which Moyer gave up six runs in four starts, the southpaw has yielded 13 runs his last two outings against the Braves and Cubs. Moyer last faced the Cardinals in 2008, but his numbers have been solid against St. Louis. The 47-year old has given up two earned runs in his previous three outings versus the Redbirds dating back to 2007.
The Phillies are 9-2 the last 11 meetings in this series, including a 3-1 mark this season. Philadelphia has claimed the previous four road matchups, as the Phils pulled off a two-game sweep at Busch Stadium last May.
vegasinsider.com
MLB RoundUp For 7/20
By Dan Bebe
National League
Brewers (-140) @ Pirates with a total of 9
This line actually looks pretty close to accurate, to me. Dave Bush has tossed 13.1 innings against the Pirates this year, and 2 of his 4 wins on the season have come at the expense of the hapless Pirates. Pittsburgh is hitting the ball a little better this week, and had himself a quality start, no decision against the Brewers in a losing effort (6 innings, 3 runs), but has been a few bolts short of a working machine at just 1-3 with a 5.14 ERA on the season. I think a lot of folks are going to jump on the home dog, but I'm not sure there's enough reason to do so, though Prince Fielder might get traded between now and then, so...
Rockies (-125) @ Marlins with a total of 9.5
This line is probably bordering on accurate, too. I hate giving oddsmakers credit, but Francis and the Rockies are the slightly better side. Francis is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA against the Marlins lifetime, but his last 3 starts before the All Star Break were clunkers. Did he need a few days off from baseball, or is that largely injured arm of his just jelly for the rest of the year and he's got to pitch through it? Nate Robertson kind of doinked his way into the Break, too, though it's been a year of mostly doinking for Nate. He's 0-2 with an 8.74 ERA against the Rockies, including a 4 inning, 5 run debacle at Coors in April. If you trust Francis to bounce back, the call is easy - if you don't, and you think the Rockies struggles on the road continue, the decision is much, much tougher.
Padres @ Braves (-166) with a total of 8
The Padres get to take their road success to one of the tougher spots in the NL, the East-leading Braves, and it isn't going to be an easy task. I'm concerned about LeBlanc keeping up his strong season. His road work hasn't been too impressive over the last month, though the Braves haven't seen him before, and that might work in Wade's favor. Jurrjens gave up 8 runs in 3 innings against the Padres in April, but he clearly wasn't healthy, and that has inflated his career numbers against San Diego. He'll pitch fairly well here, and after going back and forth with this game for about the last 15 minutes just writing this blog entry, I think that likely means neither side is all that great.
Nationals @ Reds (-175) with a total of 9
REMATCH ALERT! Not sure it matters, but always worth pointing it out. Atilano went 7 innings and allowed 2 runs (only 1 earned) in a loss to Leake and the Reds. Leake tossed 7 shutout frames in that game, so his work against Washington, though brief, is basically spotless. Again, time will tell if either team's offense wakes up, but man oh man those Nats sure do stink on the road. Tough to grab the big dog when I don't legitimately feel like they're going to score.
Astros @ Cubs (-240) with a total of N/A
Ryan Dempster has a rich history of getting no run support against the Astros, hence his half-decent 4.28 ERA and ugly 4-10 record. He's faced them twice this year, has been solid both times, and managed to pick up a win in the 2nd effort. Wesley Wright is going to be a bit of an adventure. When a pitcher is going to be on a pretty strict pitch count, you're playing with fire just a bit, and the Cubs have looked like someone put a little pep in their step during the Break. Maybe Lou Piniella stabbed Carlos Zambrano during his anger management course?
Phillies @ Cardinals (-215) with a total of 8
This total is freakishly low, which means one of two things. Carpenter's namesake alone is going to generate plenty of under-money, and oddsmakers are going to split the money because of that, or Jamie Moyer is going to dominate the Cardinals from top to bottom, and the sharps know he has a runny nose and can get some nice mucous blobs on the baseball. Because, just going on numbers, this one should go Over. The Cards are hitting better at home, and Carpenter is actually an ugly 3-2 with a 6.59 ERA lifetime against the Phils. He did some raging out of the Break, but against the Dodgers, a team that Carpenter feasts on. Moyer is in one of his runs where he looks awfully old. This one needs some line-watching.
Mets (-130) @ D'backs with a total of 9.5
Dickey came out the Break as well as he started the season, but didn't get any help from his offense, and dropped a tough one to the Giants. Enright hasn't gone deep in any starts this year, but if the D'backs can continue to get 5 to 5.2 innings out of Enright, and if he continues to only allow roughly 2 runs in those frames, I think they'll take it. I can't help but root for him, too, again largely because he was one of the nicer, more outwardly positive guys on the 2008 Visalia Oaks roster. Of course, no one knows one another in this match-up, which means the bulk of the handicapping is going to be whether the Mets are going to lay waste to the Arizona bullpen. That's a scary thought, again, if the Mets can get those bats going at all.
Giants @ Dodgers (-125) with a total of 6.5
The epic showdown of youngsters should be a damn good one. Kershaw allowed a run in 7 innings to the Giants this year in a no-decision, and Lincecum went 6 shutout against the Dodgers in an easy win. He's 4-1 with a 2.96 ERA lifetime against LA, definitely quite strong on most occasions. Of course, how many times is Lincecum going to be an underdog? The answer, to this point of 2010, is "never." The closest he came was as a -105 near-pick in Colorado, and the Rockies tagged him for 4 runs in that one, a loss. Oddsmakers know what they're doing, and this game definitely has a play embedded in there, but while Timmy's history makes the Giants look good, the strong opening number makes the Dodgers look good. Need to mull this one over.
American League
Angels @ Yankees with a total of N/A
The Angels are fighting a distinct lack of pitching depth, so we'll handicap this one tomorrow morning.
Rangers (-138) @ Tigers with a total of 9.5
Galarraga's back on the scene, 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA against the Rangers, and without a start against them in 2010. Hunter is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA against the Tigers, so just looking at those numbers, and at Hunter's incredible run to start his 2010 season (6-0, 2.39 ERA), you can see why this line is where it is. Of course, we must also remember how tough the Tigers are, at home, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Detroit get 3 runs off Hunter, and make that stand up. Galarraga is terribly unpredictable, though Texas has a fairly righthanded lineup, and that's just one small note that favors Armando. This line is pretty high for Texas, and bettors need to determine if it's high for a reason, or if Detroit is a truly live dog.
Rays (-185) @ Orioles with a total of 9
Garza has completely owned the Orioles. Jake Arrieta has probably been the O's most consistent starter. What does that mean? It means you probably don't need to handicap every tiny angle in this game, since the sides, to me, are basically non-factors. Taking a peek at the total might not be an awful idea, since Garza is a lifetime 8-1, 2.48 ERA hurler against Baltimore, and the Rays, struggling of late to get runners in scoring position across the dish, get to face a decent pitcher for the first time.
Indians @ Twins (-170) with a total of 9.5
Justin Masterson is 0-3 with a 5.01 ERA against the Twins, while Kevin Slowey is 5-2 with a 3.73 ERA against the Indians. In a perfect world, those numbers would mean that the Twins win the game, but baseball is rarely that simple. Masterson pitched pretty well against the Twins at home in one of his two outings against them this year, but was pretty bad here at Target Field. Slowey is much better at home than on the road, so that should help him out, here, but at the same time, he's coming off a terrible start at home against the White Sox. If Slowey blowey, the Indians can win this one.
Blue Jays (-133) @ Royals with a total of 10.5
What a day of games. I mean, I just kept handicapping the card, expecting to get to a 2nd interesting pitching match-up and unless the last few are interesting, it's just going to be one of those days where we have to attack the dregs. Jesse Litsch, remarkably, is 2-1 with a 1.19 ERA against the Royals in a few starts. He's pitched a tiny bit better in his last start this year after getting off to a rough beginning. Lerew has sort of been the opposite. He started off with a few workable starts, and then the wheels came off. He's allowed 14 runs in his last 2 outings which lasted just 7.2 innings. He can't be much worse than those starts, so the value on the Jays is basically dead. Of course, they might still win.
Red Sox @ Athletics (-120) with a total of 8
I'll be honest, I'm a little surprised to see the A's favored against the Red Sox, but Tim Wakefield's year has been that bad. He allowed 6 runs in 6 innings to the A's at Fenway earlier this season, though the thick air by the Bay should help him just a tad, not to mention a left field wall that's actually in deep left field. Braden's been a mess, basically since his perfect game. His team lost all 8 starts since, then he went on the DL. If he's truly healthy now, then perhaps we can expect a nice start. His arm should be fresh, that's for damn sure. I suppose if the A's are favored over a wildly public team, even a struggling one, you have to take notice.
White Sox (-145) @ Mariners with a total of 7.5
Neither of these guys looks as great now as they did in April. That's what jumps out to me in this game. Danks allowed 6 runs in 6 innings (well, really, in 1 inning) against the Twins his last time out, but to his credit, he got far deeper in that game than I think anyone expected. And while he did toss a complete game shutout against the slumping Angels in his previous start, his strikeouts have been a little low, and I just feel like his 8-inning, 2-run domination of the Mariners back in April might be setting the bar a little high. Same with Fister, in fact, who also went 8 and 2 in that same series. The White Sox pen just got rocked in Minnesota, and they're in a little bit of an emotional low point.
Diamond Trends - Tuesday
By Vince Akins
Red Sox at Athletics – The Red Sox are 0-7 since May 13, 2009 when Tim Wakefield starts within 20 cents of pick ‘em for a net profit of $715 when playing against. The Athletics are 7-0 since May 24, 2009 as a favorite when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $700.
Padres at Braves – The Braves are 10-0 since September 15, 2009 as a 140+ favorite when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $1000.
Phillies at Cardinals – The Cardinals are 0-6 since May 19, 2010 after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent as a favorite for a net profit of $835 when playing against.
Astros at Cubs – The Cubs are 0-9 since April 24, 2009 when Ryan Dempster starts after throwing more than 100 pitches at home and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $1110 when playing against.
Mets at Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks are 0-7 since April 11, 2009 at home within 20 cents of pick ‘em after a win in which they drew 5+ walks for a net profit of $710 when playing against.
Giants at Dodgers – The Giants are 0-7 since April 26, 2009 on the road after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent as a dog for a net profit of $740 when playing against. The Dodgers are 8-0 since May 23, 2009 after a loss in which they had more than ten team-left-on-base as a favorite for a net profit of $815. The Dodgers are 6-0 since April 18, 2010 when Clayton Kershaw starts after his team won the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $610.
White Sox at Mariners – The White Sox are 0-8 since August 09, 2009 as a favorite when they won by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $1105 when playing against.
Rays at Orioles – The Rays are 0-5 since August 10, 2009 when Matt Garza starts as a road favorite when he is off a start in which he needed more than 4 pitches per batter for a net profit of $670 when playing against. The Orioles are 0-7 since August 02, 2009 as a home 140+ dog after a loss in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $700 when playing against.
Brewers at Pirates – The Brewers are 7-0 since September 06, 2009 as a favorite when they blew a lead in their starter's last start and lost for a net profit of $700. The Pirates are 0-8 since June 29, 2009 at home within 20 cents of pick ‘em after a loss in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $800 when playing against.
Nationals at Reds – The Nationals are 0-8 since August 29, 2009 as a road dog after a loss in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $800 when playing against.
Blue Jays at Royals – The Blue Jays are 7-0 since August 14, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem when they are off a loss in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs for a net profit of $730. The Royals are 0-8 since June 25, 2009 after an extra inning win for a net profit of $840 when playing against.
Rangers at Tigers – The Rangers are 10-0 since May 02, 2010 after a win in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $1085. The Tigers are 0-9 since April 07, 2009 as a dog after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing against.
Indians at Twins – The Indians are 0-7 since August 28, 2009 on the road after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Twins are 9-0 since April 25, 2009 when Kevin Slowey starts vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $945. The Twins are 7-0 since September 13, 2009 at home when they blew a lead in their starter's last start and lost for a net profit of $700.
Angels at Yankees – The Yankees are 8-0 since May 15, 2009 when Philip Hughes starts at home for a net profit of $800. The Yankees are 7-0 since April 21, 2009 at home after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $715.