Tuesday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Carl Pavano (12-6, 3.26 ERA), Minnesota Twins
It’s amazing how Pavano had so many injury issues in New York City, since he is developing into one of the strongest workhorses in the American League.
Pavano has tossed two straight complete games – yielding only two runs and 12 hits while striking out 10 over 18 innings – to raise his total to five on the season, the second most in the AL. He also has amassed a staggering 143.2 innings this season, the third-most in the league.
The right-hander has a microscopic, 1.01 WHIP, and has posted eight quality starts over his past 10 outings. The Twins also are huge fans when he takes the bump as the team is 8-2 in his previous 10 starts.
John Lackey (9-5, 4.36 ERA), Red Sox
Lackey was the No. 1 starter on the Angels last year but has looked nothing like a staff ace since he came to Boston.
However, the past two starts have been huge for him, including taking a no-hitter into the eighth inning against Seattle.
The team expected bigger things from him this year, but consistency will be even more important for the right-hander. Over his past two outings he has yielded only two earned runs over 15 innings, including nine strikeouts against just three walks. Equally as important, the team has won three of his past five starts and Lackey has lasted at least six innings in nine of his past 10 outings.
Slumping
Gio Gonzalez (9-6, 3.75 ERA), Oakland Athletics
The right-hander has a respectable ERA and a nice win-loss record, but has struggled in his past three outings.
"You have to get ahead of the hitters. If I fall behind on them they're going to do the job," Gonzalez told the Associated Press. "When you fall behind it just spirals out of control. I should have taken a moment to step back, take a deep breath and attack the zone."
The 24-year-old has lasted just 17 innings in his past three starts, yielding 10 earned runs and 22 hits while walking eight against just 11 strikeouts over that span. Surprisingly enough, however, the under has hit in three of his past five starts.
Ryan Rowland-Smith (1-9, 6.27 ERA), Seattle Mariners
The Mariners might simply be better trotting out a pitching machine than using Rowland-Smith.
The left-hander has been especially abysmal in his past three starts, giving up 17 runs on 22 hits over just 13.1 innings. Even worse, he has given up two home runs and handed out three walks over that span.
Through 18 starts this year, he has lasted a meager 93.1 innings and has a horrific 38-38 strikeout to walk ratio. In his past 10 outings overall, the Mariners are an absurd 1-9.
Tuesday's Tip Sheet
By Chris David
The majority of teams have played just under 100 games and while there is still a lot of season left, the race for the playoff chase is starting to separate the contenders from pretenders, especially in the National League. Three clubs that face uphill battles are the Mets, Dodgers and Rockies and all of them start new series tonight. Let’s take a closer look at their matchups, plus break down a revenge contest for the Nationals’ Stephen Strasburg.
Atlanta at Washington
The Stephen Strasburg (5-2, 2.32 ERA) show will be on tap Tuesday when the young stud tries to help Washington stop its bleeding against Atlanta. The Nationals started the second-half of the season with 10 straight on the road and the club has gone 3-7. The good news for tonight is that two of the three victories during this span came when Strasburg started, which is why he’s a favorite (-140) against the Braves. However, Atlanta did earn a 5-0 victory over the ace on June 28, but make a note that the win happened in Georgia. On the season, Washington has gone 6-3 in his nine starts and the ‘under’ has prevailed to a 5-4 mark.
On the road, the Braves have only gone 23-28 and that includes two losses to the Marlins over the weekend. Atlanta’s pitching has been great this year, but the rotation gave up 17 runs in three games to Florida. And if you look at the first 10 games since the All-Star break, the team has surrendered five or more runs seven times, which has helped the ‘over’ go 8-2. Tommy Hanson (8-6, 4.12 ERA) will look to get the staff back on track tonight but that could be tough considering the team has come up short in both of his second-half starts. Hanson earned a no decision against the Padres (4-6) last Wednesday but he only gave up two hits over six innings. The right-hander has faced the Nationals five times in his young career and the Braves have gone 3-2, which includes one win this season.
The Nationals have taken four of the first six meetings against the Braves this season, including two of three at home during an early series in May and the one loss (6-7) in D.C. came in extra innings.
St. Louis at N.Y. Mets
After going 2-8 on a West Coast trip to start the second-half, the Mets are more than happy to return home. The offense averaged 2.3 runs per game during the stint and the only victories were notched when pitcher Johan Santana was on the hill. New York has dominated clubs at Citi Field (30-16) this season but a win on Tuesday won’t come easy against St. Louis.
The Cardinals avoided a three-game sweep to the Cubs on Sunday with an extra-inning win (4-3) and now they’ll send Adam Wainwright (14-5, 1.94 ERA) to the hill. Wainwright is arguably the best pitcher in baseball this season and his recent numbers are sick. Even though the Cards lost in Wainwright’s last appearance (0-2), he went six innings and gave up no runs. Before that setback, he’s allowed 21 hits and one earned run in 29 1/3 innings. The six-foot-seven righty has been installed as a healthy road favorite (-150) over the Mets and he’s already recorded a complete game victory (5-3) against this squad on Apr. 18.
Jonathon Niese (6-4, 3.54 ERA) will have the opportunity to notch the upset in this spot and the lefthander is hoping for some run support. New York has produced a 10-6 mark in his appearances but it’s dropped three in a row when the lefthander pitches. During this skid, Niese has only given up a combined 7 earned runs but the offense has been held to four. The lack of punch in the Mets’ offense combined with Niese’s efforts has helped the ‘under’ go 7-3 in his last 10, including five in a row. The Cardinals are averaging 4.8 runs against lefties this season, which has translated into an 18-15 record against southpaws.
The two teams met in mid-April from Busch Stadium and the Cardinals took two of the three. The ‘under’ went 2-1 and the oddsmakers are expecting another low-scoring affair on Tuesday, opening the number at seven runs.
Pittsburgh at Colorado
When betting on daily sports, it’s often been said that you never bet against a club that’s won three or more games in a row and you never bet on a team that has a losing streak of three or more. If you follow that logic, then you’ll pass on tonight’s matchup from Coors Field between the Pirates and Rockies. Pittsburgh has dropped four in a row and is 4-6 after the All-Star break, while the Rockies have gone 2-9 in the second-half, plus they’ve dropped a season-high six games.
To no surprise, Jorge De La Rosa (3-2, 5.65 ERA) and the Rockies have been made healthy favorites (-200), probably a little too high considering the team’s current form. Despite the skid, the Rockies have performed well at home (31-16) and the Pirates have been an automatic fade (11-38) on the road. De La Rosa has helped the team win three of their games at home in his four starts and all of the victories have been by two runs or more. Run-line players looking to back the Rockies can cut the price in half to an even (+100) bet at sportsbooks tonight.
Zach Duke (4-9, 5.22 ERA) won his second start off the DL against the Brewers (15-3) last Wednesday, as the lefthander gave up six hits and two earned runs over six innings. In his career, Duke has gone 3-2 with a 6.90 ERA against Colorado and he was lit up for nine earned runs in an 11-3 loss at Coors Field. The ‘over’ has cashed in all five of his starts against the Rockies.
The two clubs haven’t met this season, but the Rockies did take six of nine against the Pirates last year, which included a 5-1 record at home.
L.A. Dodgers at San Diego
The Dodgers opened the second-half with six straight losses but they quickly rebounded by winning four of their last five. Unfortunately, the team still trails San Diego by six games in the NL West, which means this three-game series is big for L.A. Including these three contests, the two teams will meet seven times over the next 11 days so the division lead could be shortened or extended.
Chad Billingsley (8-5, 4.22 ERA) takes the hill for the Dodgers and he’s got solid career stats (9-4, 2.51 ERA) against the Padres, plus he racked up a 1-0 shutout win on May 16 at Petco Park. This particular victory occurred during the Dodgers’ road sweep over the Padres and it should also be noted that it was the only time this season that Bud Black’s team lost three in a row.
San Diego just wrapped up a quick six-game set on the East Coast against the Braves (1-2) and Pirates (3-0) and have now gone 7-2 in its nine games after the All-Star break. Jon Garland (9-6, 3.61 ERA) will look to keep the win streak rolling and he’s been a tough out (5-1, 2.51 ERA) at home. He’s faced the Dodgers twice this season, with the team going 1-1.
Even though the Padres don’t have the most potent lineup in the bigs, total players have watched the ‘over’ go 7-1-1 in the second-half. Keep in mind that all of the totals have been at 8 ½ runs or less, which doesn’t give the pitchers much room for error. For this battle, the number stands at 6 ½, with money shaded toward the ‘over’ (-120). Even though it’s low, the ‘under’ has cashed in four of the five encounters this season between the pair.
vegasinsider.com
MLB RoundUp For 7/27
By Dan Bebe
National League
D'backs @ Phillies (-215) with a total of 8.5
As you'll see moving forward, when I see a game that is completely out of our price range, and when the total doesn't immediately strike me, I will post the note, "Out of price, out of mind," and move on. Such is the case here, and you'll see a few more of those ahead.
Braves @ Nationals (-140) with a total of 6.5
This line is definitely in the wheelhouse for games to be discussed, and it's a fun one. Two of the top young arms going head to head, and I have to say, it seems like Strasburg is getting a somewhat inflated number here, after a few starts of getting a fairer line. His opponent is a big name pitcher on a big name team, and the Nats have been playing like garbage, getting crushed in Milwaukee before starting this homestand. My concern is certainly that the Braves aren't playing very well, either. They got whipped in Florida, and need a few wins pretty badly to get back on track. Hanson might be the right guy - he's 2-0 with a 2.94 ERA against the Nats, though he did give up 4 runs in 6 innings to them earlier this year. Strasburg was equally unimpressive in Atlanta, giving up 4 runs in 6.1 innings, though his defense certainly let him down in that one. Tough call - value with the Braves, but both teams are clanking right now.
Cardinals (-160) @ Mets with a total of 7
Somehow, and maybe I'm nuts, but I'm actually surprised this total isn't at 6.5. Adam Wainwright hasn't allowed a run since July 4, and only 1 earned run since June 24. His ERA has dipped to 1.94 on the year, just disgusting, filthy numbers for one of the best pitchers in baseball, and a guy that does it pretty quietly. The Cards are coming off an extra-inning win an a terribly ugly game in Chicago, and the Mets are coming home off an awful 2-9 road trip where they barely touched home. All signs point to Wainwright coming into town and continuing the domination. But why the total of 7, I wonder. Niese has never faced St. Louis, but he's been excellent since returning from the DL. His last 5 starts have gone Under the total, so what gives? The side is too expensive, but I said I'd talk about games if the total caught my eye, and this one definitely did. The Under looks good, but it also looks way too easy.
Cubs (-120) @ Astros with a total of 7.5
Rematch time! These guys squared off just a few short days ago on the 21st in a game the Astros would eventually win, 4-3. Both pitchers worked their way to a no-decision, but each was outstanding, allowing a single earned run in 7 or more innings. Somehow, that game made its way to a total of 7. So, here we are, again. Same total of 7.5, but Lilly, who was a -175 favorite at home, is just a -120 road favorite, and that line seems like it's thinking about dropping. And I may have learned my lesson about backing pitchers that are about to get traded, and Lilly seems like, maybe, the most likely Cub to get shipped out of town. His contract isn't nuts, a great number of teams could use a lefty in their rotation, and he's fairly reliable. Myers is a junkballer now, but he's rolling, and the Cubs are a team he's picked on throughout his career, even in those "bad years." Something tells me this game gets to 8 runs, but not sure that's enough to make a play.
Reds @ Brewers (-149) with a total of 7.5
This line actually looks a little cheap, to me, considering that Volquez had his "adrenaline" start the first game back, and then looked very, very human his last time out, and looked like a guy that is going to need some time to build back the arm strength that made him such a touted youngster a couple years back. Gallardo is a stud, his ERA at 2.45 on the season, and he's been decent against the very hit-or-miss Reds, who once again have been averaging almost 4.5 runs per game, but never seem to score 4 or 5, posting a 2-spot last night in a loss. The Brewers, mind you, have won 5 in a row, all of a sudden, and you know stepping in front of a freight train is rarely a good idea. This is a public choice, most likely, but it's tough to make a compelling case for Volquez's jelly-arm.
Pirates @ Rockies (-205) with a total of 9.5
Out of price, out of mind.
Dodgers @ Padres (-120) with a total of 6.5
I still think Jon Garland stinks, and someday soon, I will be proven correct, I just know it. It might not be today, though, since he's pretty tough at Petco, and the Dodgers have been hitting about as well as I do. They're averaging just 2.3 runs per game over their last 7, though, thanks to playing a slumping Mets club, they have won 4 of their last 5 games. Don't be duped, the Dodgers aren't playing well. The Padres aren't exactly world-beaters, picking on the Pirates, but they're winning games, and now have a chance to put some real distance between them and one of their rivals. That being said, the Dodgers had their way with San Diego here earlier this year, and Billingsley is 9-4 with a 2.51 ERA against them, largely because he's kept Adrian Gonzalez in the yard. Garland has been serviceable against LA in 2 starts this year, but I just keep thinking the roof is one bad pitch from falling in.
Marlins (-115) @ Giants with a total of 6.5
Wow, cheap price on Johnson, no? I guess it's not that insane, as he was a -115 road favorite to Hiroki Kuroda of the Dodgers, and the Giants are hot right now. Also, he's 0-3 against the Giants in his career, so maybe there's some deflation written into that number. Cain is on a 2-start hot streak of his own, though he's got a long way to go to catch Johnson for season numbers. We are witnessing one of the sickest pitching stretches over the past 10 years. Seriously. Johnson hasn't allowed more than 2 earned runs in a start since May 8th. May freaking 8th, people! Can Florida score 2 runs off the Giants? Hanley Ramirez has nice numbers against Cain, but he could easily shut them down, too. Scary game, in my opinion, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Marlins lead 2-1 when the starters leave, then lose the game.
American League
Yankees (-240) @ Indians with a total of 9
Major League Debut? Screw it, put a quarter unit on the Indians.
Orioles @ Blue Jays (-240) with a total of 8.5
Out of price, out of mind.
Tigers @ Rays (-130) with a total of 8
Let's see, here. Tigers got no-hit last night. Verlander is 4-0 with a 3.55 ERA against Tampa. Shields is 3-0 with a 3.93 ERA against Detroit. The Tigers haven't won a game on the road since 2008. The line should inflate a bit because of the no-no. A total of 8 seems a little high, doesn't it? I'd say fishiness tells us to play the Over, the short line seems to indicate that the Tigers score a few runs and Verlander keeps them in the game, but I still don't trust Detroit on the road. I'd say Over or nothing in this one, considering how mediocre Shields has been of late.
Athletics @ Rangers (-235) with a total of 8
Out of price, out of mind. I'd look at the Over, if but briefly, considering Gonzalez is half the man on the road that he is at home.
Twins (-150) @ Royals with a total of 8.5
Pardon my language, but I sure as shit can't back the Over here after last night's ridiculous affair. 20 runs, 19 of which came from the Twins? Yikes. Something tells me Bruce Chen has himself a heck of a game. In any case, hunches aside, Carl Pavano is 6-5 with a 6.62 ERA against the Royals, so this has been one of the teams that's hit him hard. Those numbers are a little inflated by a couple bad starts, though. He's faced them 3 times this year, already, and dominated twice, and got drilled once. Chen looks like the wheels are starting to come off, and it was really just a matter of time since his stuff just isn't very good. I'm not confident enough to back the Royals at the dog price, but inflation of the line, and it will probably move up, should get some value on the Under.
Mariners @ White Sox (-250) with a total of 8.5
Out of price, out of mind. Yikes to this one.
Red Sox @ Angels (-140) with a total of 8.5
Boston got Victor Martinez back, the Angels watched their new ace take a line drive off his pitching forearm, and now the Halos are looking squarely in the eyes of one of their own. Lackey comes home to Anaheim, and that makes for a very interesting game. Lackey faced his old team once, already, tossing 7 innings of 2-hit baseball in Boston, but it's different when you're back at your old ballpark, but dressing in the visitor's locker room. I can't help but think that he won't go 7 near-perfect innings again today. He has pitched well his last 2 starts, lowering his ERA to a respectable 4.36, so it's not as if he's tanking like he was early in the season. On top of that, Weaver has looked pretty hittable in his last few outings, getting burned by the longball. This line is probably close to fair, if not a tiny bit inflated, which means you're taking a chance laying that price.
Diamond Trends - Tuesday
By Vince Akins
Red Sox at Angels – The Red Sox are 6-0 since April 14, 2010 when John Lackey starts when he is off a start in which he needed more than 4 pitches per batter for a net profit of $650. The Angels are 6-0 since September 09, 2009 when Jered Weaver starts as a home favorite after his team won the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $600.
Cubs at Astros – The Cubs are 0-8 since May 04, 2010 after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $990 when playing against. The Cubs are 0-6 since June 25, 2009 when Ted Lilly starts within 20 cents of pickem for a net profit of $615 when playing against. The Astros are 8-0 since April 20, 2010 when Brett Myers starts at home for a net profit of $870
Orioles at Blue Jays – The Orioles are 0-8 since September 30, 2009 as a dog after a loss in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Blue Jays are 8-0 since April 07, 2009 as a favorite after a win in which they had 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $800. The Blue Jays are 0-7 since August 12, 2009 when Ricky Romero starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs and they lost in his previous start for a net profit of $745 when playing against.
Reds at Brewers – The Reds are 0-11 since May 17, 2009 on the road after a one run loss and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1142 when playing against. The League is 12-0 since May 31, 2010 as a home 140+ favorite vs a divisional foe that is ahead of them in the divisional standings for a net profit of $1200.
Marlins at Giants – The Giants are 0-4 since August 20, 2009 when Matt Cain starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits and ts:site=away and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $570 when playing against.
Yankees at Indians – The Yankees are 17-0 since April 22, 2009 when CC Sabathia starts as a 200+ favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $1700. The Yankees are 10-0 since June 08, 2009 after a win in which they had 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1010.
Cardinals at Mets – The Mets are 0-7 since June 28, 2010 and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $765 when playing against.
Braves at Nationals – The Braves are 0-9 since September 09, 2009 as a dog when they blew a lead in their starter's last start and lost for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Nationals are 8-0 since September 28, 2009 at home after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent as a dog for a net profit of $910.
Dodgers at Padres – The Dodgers are 6-0 since May 10, 2010 when Chad Billingsley starts vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $610. The Padres are 9-0 since May 19, 2009 as a favorite when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $900
Diamondbacks at Phillies – The Diamondbacks are 0-9 since May 02, 2010 on the road when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Diamondbacks are 0-7 since May 10, 2010 when Rodrigo Lopez starts as a dog after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $700 when playing against.
Athletics at Rangers – The Athletics are 0-7 since July 30, 2009 when Gio Gonzalez starts on the road after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Rangers are 8-0 since April 28, 2009 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $800
Tigers at Rays – The Tigers are 7-0 since July 29, 2009 when Justin Verlander starts on the road within 20 cents of pickem for a net profit of $730. The Rays are 0-4 since August 20, 2009 when James Shields starts as a home favorite when he is off a start in which he needed fewer than 3.5 pitches per batter for a net profit of $750 when playing against.
Pirates at Rockies – The Pirates are 0-12 since May 28, 2010 as a 140+ dog after allowing 6+ runs loss for a net profit of $1200 when playing against. The Rockies are 9-0 since May 29, 2009 as a home favorite after a loss and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $900. The Rockies are 7-0 since July 03, 2009 when Jorge De La Rosa starts as a favorite in the first game of a series for a net profit of $700
Twins at Royals – The Twins are 0-7 since April 11, 2010 on the road vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $755 when playing against. The Twins are 7-0 since August 08, 2009 when Carl Pavano starts on the road when he is off a start in which he needed fewer than 3.5 pitches per batter for a net profit of $930.
Mariners at White Sox – The Mariners are 0-10 since May 13, 2010 after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1040 when playing against. The White Sox are 8-0 since June 10, 2010 after a 5+ run win for a net profit of $860