Tuesday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
Gamblers have a stacked slate to wager on Tuesday, including an NL East battle between the Braves and Marlins. The Cardinals are taking on the Dodgers, while the Twins are hoping to gain ground in the AL Central when they host the White Sox. To the games we go…
**Braves at Marlins**
Florida and Atlanta both enjoyed an off day to prep for this crucial series between National League East rivals. Both clubs appeared to be fading out of the picture as the Phillies caught fire before the All-Star break. Indeed, neither looks formidable enough to track down Philadelphia in the division, but both are legit factors in the wild-card race. If either squad can sweep this series, perhaps management will be further influenced to be buyers before the trading deadline later this week.
Atlanta (51-48, -420) improved to 24-25 on the road this season by winning two out of three at Milwaukee over the weekend. The Braves won the rubber game Sunday by a 10-2 count as minus-110 favorites, hooking up run-line backers with a plus-145 payout (risk $100 to win $145). Derek Lowe pitched six strong innings to pick up his 10th win. Casey Kotchman and Kelly Johnson combined for five hits, five runs scored and five RBI’s, while Brian McCann went 3-for-4 with a pair of doubles and his 11th homer.
Not only did Atlanta pick up a big win that kept it within 3 ½ games of the Rockies for the wild-card lead, it was also able to give Chipper Jones the day off to give him a two-day breather before going to Miami. “It’ll recharge me real good for the Florida series,” Jones told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “I’m relatively healthy, I’m just kinda beat up a little bit. Two days will do me a world of good.” Jones is hitting .290 with 12 homers and 48 RBI’s.
Florida (51-48, +447) won its third straight series at Chavez Revine this past weekend, capturing an 8-6 win in Sunday’s rubber game. The Marlins closed as plus-110 underdogs at most spots. With the Dodgers now 34-17 at home, Freddi Gonzalez’s squad has to have gained confidence by winning two of three in L.A. In addition, the Fish built better chemistry, as evidenced by Burke Badenhop’s beaning of Orlando Hudson that drew an ejection and high-fives galore from his teammates upon returning to the dugout. Florida All-Star Hanley Ramirez had been pegged two innings earlier.
Bobby Cox will give the ball to Jair Jurrjens (9-7, 2.67 ERA) in the series opener. The right-hander has posted a 4-3 record and 2.85 ERA in 10 road assignments this year. Jurrjens is 2-0 with a 0.66 ERA in a pair of starts since the All-Star break. He is 2-1 with a 6.14 ERA in four career starts against the Marlins.
Ramirez went 3-for-4 Sunday to improve his NL-best batting average to .348. Ramirez is 4-for-12 against Jurrjens with three homers and one triple. He belted a pair of homers when Florida faced Jurrjens earlier this year. Florida second baseman Dan Uggla is 5-for-11 (.455) off Jurrjens, but OF Jeremy Hermida is 2-for-9 (.222) against the righty.
Florida RHP Ricky Nolasco (7-7, 5.42) will oppose Jurrjens. The right-hander has been spectacular since coming off the disabled list and bettors should completely ignore his season numbers. Nolasco went 3-1 with a 1.91 ERA in June and has a 2-1 record and 3.76 ERA so far in July. He is 1-4 with a 5.18 lifetime ERA against the Braves.
Atlanta’s hot-hitting shortstop Yunel Escobar will be glad to see Nolasco. Escobar is 5-for-10 with three doubles and one homer against the fourth-year 26-year old. Jones also feasts on Nolasco with nine hits in 16 at-bats (.563), including three doubles and three homers. McCann is 7-for-19 (.368) versus Nolasco with a pair of doubles and two homers.
The ‘under’ is 54-41 overall for Atlanta, 27-21 in its road games.
Florida has watched the ‘over’ go 47-46 overall, 27-19 in its home contests.
Most books are listing the Braves as minus-130 favorites with a total of 8 ½ ‘over’ (minus-115).
**Dodgers at Cardinals**
Going into Monday’s series opener at St. Louis, Los Angeles (62-37) had a comfortable eight-game lead over Colorado in the NL West. With the Dodgers losing 6-1 at St. Louis and the Rockies losing to the Mets, that lead remains the same going into Tuesday. Joe Torre’s team saw its road record fall to 28-20.
St. Louis (54-48) pulled back into a first-place tie with the Cubs thanks to Monday's 6-1 triumph over L.A. behind Chris Carpenter's ninth win of the year. The Cardinals lost two of three at Philadelphia over the weekend, including Sunday’s 9-2 defeat as plus-145 underdogs.
Tony Larussa’s team now owns a 27-21 home record at Busch Stadium.
Los Angeles will turn to Chad Billingsley (10-5, 3.72) in the second game of this series at Busch Stadium. Billingsley is 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA in 10 road starts in 2009. The fourth-year righty is 0-1 with a 3.18 ERA in three lifetime starts against St. Louis.
Adam Wainwright (11-6, 2.95) has been a tough-luck pitcher at home this season. The right-hander is 3-5 with a 2.37 home ERA, limiting opposing batters to just a .209 batting average. Wainwright is 1-2 with a 4.43 ERA in three career outings against the Dodgers.
The ‘over’ is 49-45 overall for the Dodgers, 26-20 in their road games.
The ‘under’ is 52-42 overall for the Cardinals, 29-17 in their home outings.
-Most spots are listing St. Louis as a minus-130 home ‘chalk’ with a total of 7 ½ ‘over’ (minus-115). Bettors can back the Cards on the run line (minus 1 ½ runs) for a plus-160 return (risk $100 to win $160).
**White Sox at Twins**
Most betting shops have installed Minnesota (50-50) as a minus-120 favorite with a total of 8 ½ ‘under’ (minus-115). The Twins are plus-165 on the run line.
Chicago (51-49) went into Monday’s play two games back of division-leading Detroit. The White Sox dodged a four-game sweep in Motown by collecting a 5-1 win over the Tigers in Sunday’s series finale. After losing 4-3 to the Twins on Monday, the Sox stayed two games back of the Tigers, who lost 5-2 at Texas.
Mark Buehrle (11-3, 3.28) returns to the mound in this spot for the first time since throwing a perfect game against the Rays last week. The southpaw is 4-2 with a 4.53 ERA in eight road assignments in 2009. Buehrle is 23-14 with a 3.95 lifetime ERA against Minnesota.
Scott Baker (8-7, 5.04) is on a roll with a 2-0 record and 3.72 ERA in his last three outings. He has fanned 18 batters in 19-plus innings of work. Baker is 4-4 with a 5.70 ERA in 10 home starts this year. The righty is 4-3 with a 6.88 career ERA against the White Sox.
Ozzie Guillen’s club is 24-26 on the road.
The ‘under’ is on a 9-0 run for Chicago. The ‘under’ is a lucrative 61-39 overall for the White Sox but is just barely over .500 in their road games (25-23).
The ‘under’ is 51-44 overall for the Twins. However, the ‘over’ has cashed at a 28-19 clip in their home games. The ‘over’ went into Monday’s game on a 5-0 run for Minnesota before the 'under' hit in its 4-3 win with the total set at nine.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Houston RHP Roy Oswalt will take the ball Tuesday at Wrigley Field against the Cubs. The hard-throwing right-hander is 12-12 with a 3.90 career ERA against Chicago. His counterpart Ryan Dempster is 4-10 with a 4.27 lifetime ERA against the Astros.
New York Yankees LHP C.C. Sabathia will toe the rubber Tuesday at Tampa Bay. Sabathia has a 7-1 record and 2.63 career ERA against the Rays.
Baltimore has a 2-9 record in Jason Berken’s 11 starts this year. The O’s hurler faces Kansas City on Tuesday at Camden Yards.
Seattle LHP Jarrod Washburn is on fire with a 3-0 record and 0.87 ERA in his last three outings. He will take the ball Tuesday at home vs. Toronto.
vegasinsider.com
NATIONAL LEAGUE
L.A. Dodgers (62-37) at St. Louis (54-48)
The major league-leading Dodgers send ace Chad Billingsley (10-5, 3.72 ERA) to the Busch Stadium bump for the second game of a four-game set against the Cardinals, who are slated to trot out Adam Wainwright (11-6, 2.95).
St. Louis got another stellar pitching performance from Chris Carpenter en route to Monday’s 6-1 victory over Los Angeles, winning for just the third time in the last eight games. The Cardinals are on positive surges of 5-1 at home, 5-1 against the N.L. West, 16-4 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. In addition, the Redbirds have owned the Dodgers lately, going 42-20 in the last 62 meetings overall and 25-8 in the last 33 at home. This is the first series of the season between the two clubs.
Despite Monday’s setback, Los Angeles remains on several positive runs, including 6-3 overall, 5-1 against N.L. Central foes, 5-3 on the road and 10-5 against righty starters.
Los Angeles has followed up a three-game skid behind Billingsley by winning three of his last four starts, including Wednesday’s 6-2 home victory over Cincinnati, with the 24-year-old allowing two runs on seven hits and one walk while striking out seven in six innings. Billingsley is 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA in 10 road starts this year, with the Dodgers winning seven of those contests, and he’s 0-1 with a 3.18 ERA in four career appearances (three starts) against St. Louis.
St. Louis has won seven of Wainwright’s last nine starts, including four of the last five. On Thursday at Washington, he yielded one run on eight hits and a walk with seven strikeouts in six innings, as the Cardinals prevailed 4-1 in a rain-shortened contest. Wainwright, who has thrown at least six innings in 19 consecutive starts and gone seven innings or more 12 times, is 3-5 in 11 home starts this year despite a sturdy 2.37 ERA.
With Wainwright throwing, the Cards are on runs of 35-16 overall, 23-3 against winning teams and 19-8 at home. Against L.A., the right-hander is 1-2 with a 4.43 ERA in six career appearances (three starts).
The Dodgers are on “over” runs of 4-2-1 overall, 9-3 on the road, 11-6 against right-handed starters, 5-1-1 with Billingsley starting and 4-0 behind Billingsley on the highway. On the flip side, the Cardinals are on “under” streaks of 9-3 overall, 6-0 at home and 6-0 against the N.L. West, and with Wainwright taking the ball, the under is on rolls of 6-0 overall, 9-3 against the N.L. West and 5-2 at home.
Finally, the under has been the play in seven of the last 10 meetings in this rivalry, with Monday’s 6-1 contest barely staying below the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (61-38) at Tampa Bay (54-46)
CC Sabathia (10-6, 3.67 ERA) leads the red-hot Yankees into the second game of their three-game series with the Rays, who are scheduled to counter with lefty Scott Kazmir (4-6, 6.69) at Tropicana Field.
New York cruised to an 11-4 victory in Monday’s series opener, improving to 10-1 in its last 11 games overall and 9-3 in its last 12 on the road. Additionally, the first-place Yankees are on a bundle of positive runs, including 46-21 overall, 7-1 in the A.L. East and 16-5 against winning teams.
Tampa Bay is still on a lengthy 88-36 streak at home dating to last season and is on further upticks of 5-2 in division play and 19-8 at the Trop against teams with a winning road record. However, the Yankees now hold a 5-4 lead in this rivalry in 2009, with the road team on a 6-2 run.
New York has won two in a row behind Sabathia for the first time since claiming three straight from May 8-19. Last Thursday, the veteran southpaw gave up three runs on nine hits with no walks over seven innings en route to a 6-3 home win over the Athletics. That followed a sterling 2-1 home victory over Detroit on July 18 when Sabathia delivered seven shutout innings.
Sabathia is 6-4 with a 3.33 ERA in 11 road starts this season, and he’s 7-1 with a 2.63 ERA in 12 career starts against Tampa. However, the Rays roughed up Sabathia on June 6 at Yankee Stadium, pounding out five runs (four earned) in eight innings, eventually prevailing 9-7.
Tampa had won two in a row and five of seven behind Kazmir before Thursday’s 5-0 road loss to the White Sox, in which Chicago’s Mark Buehrle threw a perfect game. Kazmir allowed all five runs on five hits and three walks in six innings. The lefty is 1-3 with a whopping 9.50 ERA in seven home starts this year, but he’s a much more respectable 5-4 with a 2.65 ERA in 13 career outings (12 starts) against the Bronx Bombers. In an April 13 home contest with the Yanks, he allowed three runs in 6 2/3 innings of a 15-5 Tampa Bay rout.
The under for New York is on runs of 7-3-1 overall and 8-4-1 against A.L. East foes, but the over is on streaks 5-0 on the road, 5-1-1 behind Sabathia and 4-0 with Sabathia hurling on the road. For Tampa, the under is on stretches of 35-17-1 overall, 9-3 in division play and 4-1 with Kazmir throwing, but the over is 6-1 in Kazmir’s last seven home starts and 16-5 in his last 21 outings against division opponents.
Finally, with last night’s high-scoring affair flying past the total, the over has now hit in six of the last seven Yanks-Rays clashes at Tropicana Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and OVER
Gametimepicks.com
Knotted Up!!
By SportsPic
Marlins off an impressive 5-1 west-coast road swing stuffing +$447 into betting accounts return to LandShark Stadium for a six game home stand. Marlins 11-9 (+$145) this month including 3-4 (-$181) at home start the week tied with the Braves in the NL East and have a chance to distance themselves from their nearest competitor in the division. Ricky Nolasco (7-7, 5.42 ERA) toes the rubber in the opener. Nolasco off a 6 1/3 inning gem striking out 10 in a 5-0 victory vs Padres has an uphill battle. The righty has not had success vs rival Braves posting a 1-4 record in seven trips to the mound with Marlins 1-6 over the span. Meanwhile, Braves 15-8 (+$646) in July notching 5.5 runs/game counter with Jair Jurrjens (9-7, 2.67 ERA). Jurrjens in great form is undefeated in July going 3-0 with a miniscule 1.37 ERA. The righty surrendering just two runs on three hits in a Braves win over Marlins earlier this season is 2-1 (3-1 TSR) in four life-time starts vs Fish. Interesting notes: Braves have had success vs division rivals of late going 11-4, are 8-3 last 11 overall opening a series, however they're a dreadful 0-7 in game-one of a series with Jurrjens touching toe to rubber.
Tuesday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
By Covers.com
Streaking
Mark Buehrle, Chicago White Sox
While the perfect game in his last outing gave Mark Buehrle some overdue national recognition, the perennial ace of the Chicago White Sox staff makes a living off of his consistency.
Buehrle (11-3, 3.28) might not scare batters with overpowering stuff, and his numbers don’t always jump off the page. But when it comes to getting guys out and giving his team a chance to win the game, there are few better in the majors.
The reliable lefty is 5-1 with one no-decision in his past seven starts. In this span, he has given up more than three earned runs just once, and his perfect game against the Tampa Bay Rays is among his two shutouts in this span. His previous outing was an eight-inning effort in which he allowed one run against the Baltimore Orioles in another victory.
Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros
Houston’s high-profile hurler doesn’t appear to have much for his efforts this season, but his recent numbers suggest Oswalt (6-4, 3.66 ERA) has been doing some of his best work of late.
The 31-year-old righty has posted a record of 3-0 with three no-decisions in his past six starts. He has gone at least six innings and given up three or fewer earned runs in each of these starts.
Overall, the two-time 20-game winner has yielded just 10 earned runs in his past six starts, and has struck out 37 batters while walking seven.
Slumping
Vin Mazzaro, Oakland A’s
Mazzaro was put in the difficult position of trying to help plug leaks in a patchwork rotation for what quickly became another lost season for the Oakland A’s. The 22-year-old right-hander is learning the hard way.
After winning his first two starts with shutout performances over the Chicago White Sox and Baltimore Orioles, Mazarro (2-7, 4.75 ERA) has gone 0-7 with one no-decision in his past eight starts.
His last two efforts have been far from encouraging; he gave up 14 total runs to the Los Angeles Angels and New York Yankees while failing to get past the fourth inning in either blowout loss.
Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati Reds
Although Arroyo leads the Reds with 10 wins, his inconsistency can be maddening for those who back this club.
Sandwiched around a two-win, 16-inning scoreless streak are four ugly losses in which Arroyo (10-9, 5.21 ERA) gave up at least five earned runs and lasted past the fifth inning just twice.
His last outing resulted in a five-inning losing effort against the Los Angeles Dodgers in which he gave up five earned runs.
Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
Tuesday, July 28
Chicago at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EDT). Mark Buehrle (11-3) makes his first start for the White Sox since throwing a perfect game against Tampa Bay last Thursday.
STARS
Monday
-Josh Willingham, Nationals, hit two grand slams and tied a franchise record with eight RBIs, powering Washington to a 14-6 victory over the Milwaukee Brewers.
-Tim Lincecum, Giants, pitched a four-hitter and had a career-high 15 strikeouts in San Francisco's 4-2 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates.
-Josh Beckett, Red Sox, became the American League's first 12-game winner, allowing three runs and eight hits in seven innings as Boston beat Oakland 8-3.
-Alfonso Soriano, Cubs, hit a game-winning grand slam in the 13th inning to lead Chicago past Houston 5-1.
-Nick Swisher, Yankees, homered from both sides of the plate for New York, which beat Tampa Bay 11-4 and maintained a 2 1/2-game lead in the division over Boston.
-Fernando Tatis, Mets, belted a pinch-hit grand slam in the eighth inning and New York topped the Colorado Rockies 7-3.
-Billy Butler, Royals, had a career-high five hits and drove in three runs as Kansas City beat the Baltimore Orioles 5-3.
-Jamie Moyer, Phillies, pitched 6 2-3 shutout innings to lead Philadelphia to a 6-2 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks.
STATS & STREAKS
Beginning a stretch in which they'll play 19 of 26 on the road, the New York Yankees beat Tampa Bay 11-4 on Monday night and showed no signs of a letdown following the club's best homestand (9-1) since June 2004. They've won 23 of their last 29, climbing a season-best 23 games over .500. ... Oakland is 1-9 in its last 10 games in Boston, including an 8-3 loss Monday. ... The Philadelphia Phillies beat Arizona 6-2 to improve to a majors-best 30-15 on the road.
AIN'T IT GRAND?
Washington's Josh Willingham became the 13th player to hit two grand slams in a game, achieving the feat in the Nationals' 14-6 win at Milwaukee on Monday night. He's the first to do it since Boston's Bill Mueller hit one from each side of the plate on July 29, 2003, against Texas. Willingham's eight RBIs were the most in Nationals history and tied the franchise mark. There were two other slams hit Monday night: by the Chicago Cubs' Alfonso Soriano and the New York Mets' Fernando Tatis.
THROWING STRIKES
San Francisco's Tim Lincecum struck out 15 in a 4-2 win over Pittsburgh on Monday night, marking the sixth time this season and 17th in his young career that Lincecum struck out 10 or more. He's only the third Giants pitcher since 1958 to strike out 15 or more and first since Jason Schmidt had 16 on June 6, 2006.
NAILING IT
St. Louis' Chris Carpenter improved to 4-0 with a 1.75 ERA in July with a 6-1 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday night. He bounced back after dropping three of his last four starts in June, and his 2.19 ERA is second in the NL.
SORRY-ANO
Alfonso Soriano had an embarrassing moment in the 11th inning of the Chicago Cubs' 5-1 win over Houston, when he hit a slow bouncer to third with one out and a runner on first. He didn't run, even though the ball was fair, and continued to stand in the box after he was thrown out at first and booed by the fans, saying the ball hit him on his foot. Two innings later, he hit a walkoff grand slam to win it.
STORMING BACK
Victor Martinez hit a three-run homer off Los Angeles closer Brian Fuentes in the ninth inning, and the Cleveland Indians rallied for an 8-6 victory over the Angels on Monday night.
HOME SWEET HOME
In his last five starts at Fenway Park, Josh Beckett is 5-0 with a 1.19 ERA and 36 strikeouts, while allowing 23 hits and four walks. For the season, he is 7-0 in 10 starts at home, including an 8-3 victory over Oakland on Monday night. ... Minnesota beat Chicago 4-3, improving to 12-2 at the Metrodome against the White Sox.
DOUBLE VISION
Newly acquired Matt Holliday doubled in the first inning of St. Louis' 6-1 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday night, becoming the first Cardinals player to get two-baggers in each of his first four games, according to statistics dating to 1954.
STOPPER STOPPED
Seattle's Felix Hernandez allowed seven runs - tying a career worst - and 11 hits in 5 2-3 innings, taking the loss in an 11-4 defeat against Toronto on Monday night. He had won a career-best seven consecutive decisions and was 10-2 with a 1.94 ERA following a Mariners loss this season.
GEERING UP
Cincinnati hit three of its four home runs in a 6-4 win Monday night off San Diego's Josh Geer, who has given up an NL-high 27 long balls. Geer fell to 0-4 in eight road starts this season with a 7.33 ERA. He has never won in 10 road starts over the last two seasons.
NEW YORK MESS
Mets GM Omar Minaya called a mid-afternoon news conference Monday to announce the firing of Tony Bernazard, the club's vice president of player development who was dismissed after a series of high-profile incidents. The news conference took a strange turn when he questioned the motives of beat writer Adam Rubin of the New York Daily News, who had reported on the recent turmoil and who Minaya said had lobbied him for a job. Rubin called the allegation "deplorable'' and said he had merely asked Minaya and Mets chief operating officer Jeff Wilpon for career advice.
GIANTS GET GARKO
The San Francisco Giants acquired first baseman Ryan Garko from the Cleveland Indians on Monday in exchange for Class-A left-hander Scott Barnes. Garko was batting .285 with 11 home runs and 39 RBIs. Barnes, considered a Top-20 prospect in San Francisco's organization, was 12-3 with a 2.85 ERA and 99 strikeouts in 18 starts and 98.0 innings.
SPEAKING
"Do I want to tell you the version, the truth that's going to get me in trouble or am I going to be the nice guy? Well, I thought it was a strike and I told him, 'Come on, I need that pitch. You don't need any help.' And he said, 'Knock it off.' And I waved him off and he threw me out of the game. Maybe he was having a bad day. I thought he had determined who he wanted to win the game anyway.'' - Houston reliever LaTroy Hawkins, who was ejected by plate umpire Mike Everitt in the eighth inning of the Astros' 5-1 loss in 13 innings at Chicago.
Cubs, Astros roll on
By Brobury Sports
The Chicago Cubs look to hold onto first place in the NL Central as they host the Houston Astros Tuesday night.
First pitch is at 8:05 pm ET and the Cubs are slim -120 favorites at BroburySports in another good pitching matchup.
Last night was the first of four games in this series with the Cubs prevailing 5-1. Alfonso Soriano hit a grand slam in the 13th inning for the winners.
This was a battle between two very good pitchers in Houston’s Randy Rodriguez and Chicago’s Carlos Zambrano, and the Cubs now have a half game lead over St. Louis in the division with Houston three games back.
Chicago (52-45) began the second half at exactly .500 but they have feasted on some easy competition and gone 7-0 against the likes of Washington and Cincinnati. Their only other full series of the second half has been at powerful Philadelphia, where they lost two of three.
The Cubs are an excellent home team overall (31-18) and are 12-5 at home recently versus teams with winning records. Houston (50-49) falls into that category tonight.
The Astros have two very good pitchers in Rodriguez and Roy Oswalt and then it’s ‘pray for rain’ as the other starters have a combined ERA over 5.00. The Astros have now lost three straight games as they dropped two at home to the Mets before this series.
Roy Oswalt (6-4, 3.66 ERA) vs. Ryan Dempster (5-5, 4.09 ERA)
Houston is 5-0 in Oswalt’s last five starts and he is sporting a 2.07 ERA in the process. He has also been un-hittable in his last three road starts (Dodgers, Giants, Padres) with a 3-0 record and a miniscule 1.04 ERA.
Oswalt is 0-1 with a 4.15 ERA in two starts versus the Cubs this year. The last one was a 5-4 loss at Wrigley on May 16th where he got a no-decision after giving up three earned runs in six innings.
Dempster hasn’t pitched since winning versus Milwaukee on July 2nd because of a broken toe. He actually hurt the toe stepping over the railing of the dugout and it remains to be seen if rust will get the better of him. He will likely be limited to 85 pitches so that helps Houston’s chances.
The Cubs have lost a lot of close games with Dempster on the mound and are just 2-7 in his last nine starts. However, they are 5-2 in his home starts and Dempster is an incredible 18-4 at Wrigley since last year.