Tuesday Tip Sheet
By Judd Hall
If there is one to be said about the Major League Baseball season is that it is a long haul. And during that haul, you’re bound to have some slumps…even those teams that are supposed to be near the top of the standings. We’ve got a pair of squads that are stuck in a bit of a rut on the field for Tuesday. Let’s take a look at their tilts.
Tigers at Royals – 7:05 p.m. EDT
Detroit may have walked out of the Metrodome with a two-game lead in the American League Central, but you get the sense that maybe they’re about to give that advantage up soon. The Tigers have dropped three of their last eight games, including two of three they just played in Minnesota.
You’d be well within your right to pin some of the blame on the Tigers’ pitching staff. In the last four games, their starting pitchers have averaged around five innings with an earned run average of 5.57 and a slim strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2:1. Tuesday’s starter, Justin Verlander (8-4, 3.54 ERA), has seen the Motor City Kitties drop three of the last four games he’s pitched in. Batters are even seeing the ball better right now against Verlander as he’s given up four home runs in his last three starts.
For Verlander to come up with a win here, he’ll need to get some run support from the offense. That’s easier said than done as Detroit is hitting .232 with five homers and 23 runs batted in over the last week. Also, the Tigers are averaging just 2.4 runs per game for Verlander’s last five starts. That could help the ‘under’ keep rolling as it is 7-1 in Detroit’s last eight games.
Kansas City comes into this game having won its last two games at home to split a four-game series with the White Sox. Bruce Chen (0-2, 4.38 ERA) takes the mound for the Royals in this contest, which isn’t such a bad thing. He gave up two earned runs on five hits in five innings of work on July 2 against the White Sox. Even though Chen took the loss, it was a positive start to build upon.
While bettors would like to take the Royals in this spot, keep in mind that Detroit is 9-3 in Verlander’s last 12 against this AL Central rival. The ‘under’ is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Comerica Park.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants have installed the Tigers as heavy $2.30 home favorites with the total coming in at 8 ½.
Blue Jays at Rays – 7:08 p.m. EDT
Wasn’t it just a week ago that everyone was touting the Rays as back on the map? I certainly believe they were turning the corner having won seven straight games before dropping a Canada Day special to Toronto on July 1. That setback has sent Tampa Bay into a tailspin of four straight defeats.
Tampa Bay got onto that streak because their offense was firing on all cylinders. In this four game slump, the Rays are hitting a paltry .153 and striking out an average of seven times per tilt. And the Rays aren’t getting any clutch hits as evidenced by the fact that they are leaving at least 11 runners on base during this skid.
The Rays will send James Shield (6-6, 3.50) to the mound this Tuesday. Shields will no doubt feel obligated to turn things around in this spot since he was the starter for Last Wednesday’s loss at Rogers Centre. If you take away that setback, Tampa Bay had won five of Shields’ previous six starts. Plus, Joe Maddon’s squad is 4-1 in the last five appearances for Shields at Tropicana Field.
You’d like to say that win last Wednesday was a catalyst for something bigger for the Blue Jays, but that hasn’t been the case. Toronto has lost three straight since that July 1 victory and have dropped seven of its last eight games.
The Blue Jays will send Brad Mills (0-1, 14.09 ERA) out to start the first game of this series. He was called back up from AAA Las Vegas after Scott Richmond got placed on the disabled list. It won’t take much to improve on his debut with the big club. Mills lasted only four innings and gave up eight earned runs in his first start, a 10-0 home defeat against the Phillies on June 27.
Given Mills’ last start; it makes sense that Tampa Bay was installed as a $1.80 home “chalk” with a total of nine by the good folks at LVSC.
Tropicana Field has been a house of horrors for the Blue Jays over the past few seasons as they’re 2-9 in the last 11 games in St. Petersburg. The ‘under’ continues to be a strong play here as it is 26-10 in that past 36 head-to-head meetings.
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Tuesday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
By Covers.com
Streaking
Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Kershaw has pitched way better than his 5-5 record indicates. Over his last four starts, batters have almost been better off waiting him out for a walk rather than swinging for a hit.
The 21-year-old left-hander has been next to untouchable, going 2-0 with a 0.76 ERA during that span while the Dodgers have won all four games. In three of those outings, he did not give up a run.
Kershaw has given up 14 hits and issued 13 walks, which have been a problem for him throughout his brief career and impacts his pitch count and ability to work deeper in games.
“Sometimes when you’re not able to throw strikes consistently, it’s going to be like that,” he told the team’s website.
On the other hand, Kershaw has given up just one homer since April 26.
Slumping
Paul Maholm (Pittsburgh Pirates)
The lefthander is 1-2 in his previous four starts for last-place Pittsburgh, which appears to be slipping into its annual midseason swoon. But that doesn’t tell the whole story about Maholm.
After three straight starts of seven innings, Maholm has gotten past the fifth inning just once in his last four outings. Over his last four starts, Maholm has given up 38 hits and 21 earned runs in just 21 1-3 innings for an ugly 8.86 ERA. In his last outing, he gave up six runs and 11 hits to the punchless Mets.
About the best that can be said of Maholm lately is that he still isn’t giving up homers. He has allowed just one during the slump and five all season.
Debuting
Marc Rzepczynski (Toronto Blue Jays)
Rzepczynski has made a quick ascent through the minor leagues since the Blue Jays drafted the lefthander in the fifth round two years ago.
He did not lose a game at Single-A Auburn in 2007 and spent 2008 with Single-A Lansing, going 7-6 with a 2.83 ERA. He began this season with Double-A New Hampshire before being promoted to Triple-A Las Vegas.
In two starts in the hitter-friendly PCL, Rzepczynski was lights out, giving up one run and seven hits with 16 strikeouts in 11 1-3 innings.
In 254 2-3 minor league innings, Rzepczynski has 277 strikeouts. He is being given a shot at Toronto’s fifth starter slot, replacing the ineffective Brad Mills.
Dustin Nippert (Texas Rangers)
A 6-foot-8 right-hander who pitched primarily in relief last season, Nippert is making his first start of the year for the Rangers.
Nippert has missed the entire campaign with a muscle strain in his shoulder. His rehab has included five minor-league outings, including a start for Triple-A Oklahoma City Wednesday where he allowed one run and two hits in five innings.
“I feel like I’m able to locate all my pitches and throws strikes,” he told the Rangers’ website.
Nippert made six starts at the end of last season, going 2-3 with a 5.63 ERA. One of those was a loss to the Los Angeles Angels, his opponent Tuesday.
Returning
Erik Bedard (Seattle Mariners)
Bedard is another left-hander who has pitched better than his numbers, although he hasn’t pitched in a while.
He did not allow more than three runs in any of his first 11 starts but won just five of them, taking four no-decisions. In both his losses, the Mariners – among the worst hitting teams in the majors - didn’t score.
Bedard won three straight starts before going on the DL just under a month ago with shoulder inflammation. He also had shoulder issues last year that ended his season before the midway point.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (45-39) at Milwaukee (43-39)
The top two teams in the N.L. Central begin a three-game series at Miller Park, with the Cardinals handing the ball to Adam Wainwright (8-5, 3.32 ERA) and the Brewers countering with ace Yovani Gallardo (8-5, 2.75).
Both squads were idle Monday, and St. Louis comes in on a 4-1 roll after Sunday’s 10-1 wipeout of the Reds in Cincinnati, while the Brewers have dropped four of their last five, including Sunday’s 8-2 setback at the Cubs.
The Cardinals are on further upticks of 9-4 in divisional games, 12-5 against right-handed starters and 5-2 on Tuesday, but they have lost nine of their last 12 series openers and four of five after an off day. Milwaukee is on positive stretches of 16-6 in series openers, 21-9 against N.L. Central rivals and 20-8 versus winning clubs, but it has dropped 12 of 17 against right-handed starters.
The Brewers are 4-1 against the Cardinals this season and 11-3 in the last 14 series clashes dating back to last July. However, the visitor has taken 10 of the last 12 meetings, including five of six in 2009.
Wainwright is coming off a complete-game, 2-1 home victory over the Giants, allowing the run on six hits while striking out a season-high 12. The right-hander has given up just three earned runs in his last two starts covering 16 innings (1.69 ERA), but in his last three road starts, he’s surrendered 13 runs (all earned) in 20 innings (5.85 ERA). Still, he’s 5-1 with a 4.80 ERA in seven road outings, six of which St. Louis has won.
With Wainwright pitching, the Cardinals are on tears of 36-17 overall, 7-1 on the road, 6-1 against the N.L. Central and 6-1 on Tuesday. Wainwright is also 3-3 with a 2.59 ERA in 15 career appearances (eight starts) against the Brewers, including 1-1 with a 1.20 ERA in two starts this season, giving up a single run in a 1-0 home loss on May 16 and a single run in an 8-1 road win 10 days later.
Gallardo continued his incredible season on Wednesday, holding the Mets to a run on five hits in seven innings, and like Wainwright, he whiffed a season-high 12 batters. However, the Brewers were blanked and Gallardo suffered a 1-0 loss. He’s 1-2 in his last three starts despite a 2.08 ERA, and he’s given up three earned runs or fewer in 14 of his 16 starts this season, including the last seven in a row, posting a 2.00 ERA during this seven-game stretch.
The Brewers are 9-4 in Gallardo’s last 13 starts overall, 5-2 in his last seven at home, 6-1 in his last seven against divisional foes and 5-0 in his last five when opening a series. Gallardo is 4-3 with a 2.47 ERA in eight home starts this year, with the lone no-decision coming in the Brewers’ 1-0 victory over St. Louis on May 25 as he allowed two hits and walked four in eight innings. Despite that strong effort, he’s 0-1 with a 5.30 ERA in three lifetime starts versus the Redbirds.
Behind Wainwright, the Cardinals are on “over” runs of 6-2 overall, 11-1-1 on the road, 4-0 on Tuesday and 9-3-1 against the N.L. Central. Conversely, with Gallardo pitching, the “under” is on streaks of 20-8 overall, 4-1 at home and 9-4 against the N.L. Central.
As a team, Milwaukee is on “over” streaks of 5-2 overall, 5-1 on Tuesday and 5-1 in series openers, but the under is 9-4 in the Cards’ last 13 divisional contests and 4-1 in their last five after an off day.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MILWAUKEE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Texas (45-36) at L.A. Angels (46-35)
The battle for first place in the A.L. West continues at Angels Stadium, where the hosts send John Lackey (3-3, 4.70) to the mound opposite the Rangers’ Dustin Nippert, who is making his season debut in the big leagues.
Los Angeles ran its winning streak to three in a row, snapped Texas’ five-game run in the process and took over sole possession of first place in the West with Monday’s 9-4 blowout win. The Angels are on additional surges of 10-3 overall, 6-1 at home and 13-5 versus right-handed starters.
Despite falling last night, the Rangers are still on runs of 19-8 against the A.L. West and 35-17 on Tuesday. Additionally, they still have a 5-2 edge over the Angels in the season series, though the first six contests prior to Monday were played in Texas.
Nippert hasn’t pitched for Texas this season, but he posted a 2.55 ERA in minor-league rehab assignments. The right-hander, who was on the 60-day disabled list with a shoulder injury, went 3-5 with a 6.40 ERA in 20 appearances (six starts) with the Rangers last season.
Nippert faced the Angels three times in his career – all last year – going 0-1 with a 6.92 ERA. His one start versus the Halos came in August in Anaheim, and he yielded three runs on five hits in 5 1/3 innings, walking just two and striking out seven but losing, 3-1.
Lackey has regained his ace-like form over his last two outings, holding the DBacks and Orioles to a combined three runs (two earned) and nine hits over 15 innings, walking just four while striking out 16. He got a no-decision in his team’s 2-1 win at Arizona then picked up the 5-2 home victory over Baltimore on Thursday.
The Angels have lost five of Lackey’s last six home starts, where he’s 1-2 with a 4.24 ERA in three contests this season. But otherwise behind the big right-hander, L.A. is on runs of 20-8 against A.L. West opponents, 8-1 on Tuesday and 16-5 in the second game of a series. However, Lackey is only 10-10 with a bloated 5.79 ERA in 28 career starts against the Rangers. He made his season debut in Texas on May 16, but got ejected after throwing just two pitches, the second of which beaned Rangers leadoff hitter Ian Kinsler.
For Texas, the “under” is on runs of 37-15-1 overall, 15-7 on the road, 23-9-1 against righty starters, 21-8-1 versus teams with a winning record and 14-3 in Game 2 of a series. Similarly, with Lackey pitching, Los Angeles is on “under” streaks of 4-1 at home and 5-1-1 on Tuesday. However, as a team, the Angels carry “over” trends of 5-1-1 overall, 10-4-1 at home and 10-3-1 against right-handed starters.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
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SCOREBOARD
Tuesday, July 7
Oakland at Boston (7:10 p.m. EDT). Red Sox All-Star Josh Beckett goes for his 10th win against the Athletics, the AL West's worst team.
STARS
Monday
-Chase Utley, Shane Victorino and Greg Dobbs, Phillies, homered during a 10-run first inning, leading Philadelphia to a 22-1 victory over the Cincinnati Reds.
-Jason Marquis, Rockies, pitched eight innings for his major league-leading 11th win, leading Colorado to a 1-0 win against the Washington Nationals.
-Alex Rios, Blue Jays, hit a three-run homer and Toronto beat the New York Yankees 7-6 to avoid a four-game series sweep.
-Jarrod Washburn, Mariners, tossed a one-hitter for his ninth career complete game, leading Seattle to a 5-0 victory over the Baltimore Orioles.
-Derrek Lee, Cubs, hit a two-run homer in the first inning of Chicago's 4-2 win against the Atlanta Braves.
-Brett Anderson, Athletics, tossed a two-hitter in a 6-0 victory over the Boston Red Sox, earning Oakland's first complete game since last July 8.
-Mike Jacobs, Royals, hit a go-ahead solo homer in the ninth inning of Kansas City's 4-3 win at the Detroit Tigers.
-Jeff Mathis, Angels, hit a three-run homer to help Los Angeles beat the Texas Rangers 9-4 in the opener of a key AL West series.
-Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks, singled home Justin Upton with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning to give Arizona a 6-5 win against the San Diego Padres.
-Pablo Sandoval, Giants, hit his first career grand slam in San Francisco's 5-4 win over the Florida Marlins.
OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCE
Chase Utley hit a three-run homer and Shane Victorino and Greg Dobbs each had two-run shots during a 10-run first inning, helping the Philadelphia Phillies rout the Cincinnati Reds 22-1 on Monday night. The Phillies tied a club record for most runs in the first inning. It was the most runs by Philadelphia since a 26-7 win over the New York Mets at the old Veterans Stadium on June 11, 1985. The 22 runs were the most in the six-year history of Citizens Bank Park.
PITCHING PERFORMANCE
Jarrod Washburn piled up some impressive numbers during his one-hitter. The Seattle Mariners left-hander faced one batter over the minimum, issuing no walks and striking out three in his 110-pitch effort. Nick Markakis' two-out single in the fourth was Baltimore's only hit in the 5-0 loss. It was the second one-hitter at Safeco Field and 10th in franchise history.
WELLS DONE
Randy Wells pitched six solid innings to win his fourth consecutive start and the Chicago Cubs beat the Atlanta Braves 4-2 for their sixth victory in eight games. Wells (4-3) gave up two runs and seven hits. Wells is the first Cubs rookie to win four straight starts since Kerry Wood in 1998, according to Elias Sports Bureau.
SAD STATS
Since Carlos Beltran's last game on June 21, the New York Mets have gone 5-9 with a .234 batting average. They scored three runs or fewer in 10 of 14 games, including three shutouts and three one-run games. David Wright went 11 for 52 (.212) with one homer, three RBIs and 15 strikeouts over that span. In two series against Yankees and Phillies, Wright went 0 for 22 with eight strikeouts and three grounded into double plays as the Mets lost all six games.
COMPLETE MASTERY
Mike Hampton pitched seven solid innings to lead the Houston Astros to a 4-1 win against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Hampton allowed one run and three hits to improve to 14-3 with a 2.20 ERA in 20 career starts against Pittsburgh dating to 1995. He has won 10 consecutive starts against the Pirates.
HE'S BACK
Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez returned to the lineup after missing two months with a dislocated left shoulder. He went 0 for 4 in Chicago's 4-2 victory over the Atlanta Braves. ... Rangers center fielder Josh Hamilton was 2 for 4 with a double and two strikeouts in his first game after abdominal surgery, but Texas lost 9-4 to the Los Angeles Angels.
SPEAKING
"You don't know how things are going to play out. There's no script for that one. I think what you saw out there was just pure emotion, from the fans, from myself.'' - former Red Sox star Nomar Garciaparra, who tipped his helmet and tapped his chest as he received a one-minute standing ovation before his first at-bat as an opponent at Fenway Park. Garciaparra singled twice and drove in the first run in the Oakland Athletics' 6-0 victory at Boston.
Sox, Yanks send out Aces
By Brobury Sports
The Red Sox and Yankees are the class of the American League and they send their aces to the mound Tuesday night against Oakland and Minnesota respectively.
Only one game separates these two AL East powerhouses in the standings and that’s pretty incredible as Boston is 8-0 against New York this year. That just shows how dominant the Yankees have been against everyone else, going 10-2 recently.
Josh Beckett (Boston) vs. Dana Eveland (Oakland)
Oakland is a big +220 underdog at Boston with a start time of 7:10 pm ET. The Red Sox have a 26-13 home record but have three of four there, including 6-0 to Oakland last night. That broke the A’s six-game losing streak at Fenway going back to 2007.
Beckett (9-3, 3.67 ERA) made the All-Star game along with fellow starter Tim Wakefield, but it’s Beckett who is clearly the ace of the staff. He has had a great couple of months after a poor April, going 7-1 with a 2.35 ERA, although he did get hit around some in his last start at Baltimore.
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The big stat to keep an eye on with Beckett is that he’s been un-hittable in his last four home starts, going 4-0 with an ERA under 1.00.
Eveland (1-2, 7.40 ERA) is being called up from the minors to take the place of ace Dallas Braden. Braden was put on the bereavement list and that’s a big blow to Oakland’s chances in this game.
Eveland has made three starts on the road this year and has a whopping 8.59 ERA. He last pitched in the majors on May 3rd.
CC Sabathia (NY Yankees) vs. Scott Baker (Minnesota)
Minnesota is a +125 home dog with a start time of 8:10 pm ET.
This is the first game of a three-game series with the Yanks sweeping a four game set in New York earlier this year. The Twins have won four of the last five meetings in Minnesota overall.
Baker (6-6, 4.99 ERA) is starting to show his form from last year when he went 11-4 and had a 3.45 ERA. He was 4-0 in June with a 3.20 ERA. This is his first start against the Yankees since 2006 when he went 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA against them.
Sabathia (7-5, 3.85) has been a workhouse once again this year as his 114 innings is eighth in the American League. He’s actually pitched much better on the road with a 3.19 ERA as opposed to 4.55 at Yankee Stadium. That’s not too surprising given the tremendous pressure he pitches under in the Bronx every time out.
The other interesting factor about Sabathia is his night ERA (2.99) is much lower than during the day (5.49).
All of these factors set up for a good performance at the Twins on Tuesday night