MLB News and Notes Tuesday 8/10

MLB RoundUp For 8/10
By Dan Bebe

National League

Marlins @ Nationals (-200) with a total of 7
The price is well out of our range, but if I don't at least give some thoughts on Strasburg's return from the "DL" I think I might get strung up and smacked with 2-by-4's. My thoughts are that they wouldn't let this kid pitch unless he was PAIN FREE. Simple as that. There's obviously value on the other side with the line this inflated, but at the same time, one of the prime arguments for fading a guy coming off injury is that he might be rusty or feel some tightness. No chance Strasburg throws a pitch if any of that creeps into the mix. Precisely why I'd leave this one alone; also, Washington isn't that bad at home, and this one is going to draw a crowd.

Dodgers @ Phillies (-115) with a total of 8.5
This line might look like it's Phillies-friendly, and it is, but it's for a reason. That reason: the Dodgers are bad on the road, and worse lately. To Padilla's credit, he's been pitching his butt off (as have most of the Dodgers starters), but the Dodgers just can't put any offense together, and now they have to head to the humidity of Philadelphia to take on their nemesis of the past couple seasons. Padilla, mind you, has really only seen Raul Ibanez more than a couple times on this Phillies roster. Kyle Kendrick gets the start for Philadelphia, and his 2-2, 7.29 mark against the Dodgers certainly makes you want to back LA, but he's actually on a run of 3 straight quality starts, and is the Phillies most profitable starter this season.

Rockies (-165) @ Mets with a total of 7
Pelfrey is just a complete and total mess, but at this price, I don't see how you can back Ubaldo Jimenez. I don't see how you can back Pelfrey, either, given how much he has just stunk beyond stunk. Let's be honest - there are going to be games in this series where we will back the Mets. It's almost inevitable, since they play so much better at home than on the road, and the Rockies are the exact opposite, but Pelfrey, who might "find a nut" in this one if his team scores 5-6 runs, is just not the guy for me. Let's wait until later in the series.

Cardinals @ Reds (-125) with a total of 8
This is quite a series, and we'll definitely talk about it a bit on the upcoming podcasts, but in terms of this individual game, we can do most of our handicapping based on what we've seen this year, and what we've seen recently. Garcia, recently, has been a little less spectacular, though aside from his absolute most recent start, still decent. In two starts against the Reds this year, he's been good, but not great. I think we can safely assume that Garcia goes 6 innings in a hotly contested game, and gives up 3 runs. Cueto, interestingly, has been decent against the Cardinals twice (bordering on quality), and very bad against them, once. Both pitchers are having rock solid seasons, so it's tough to know exactly what prevails, but I'm inclined to think that the home team edge might balance out with Cueto's issues with St. Louis.

Braves (-135) @ Astros with a total of 7.5
This line seems low, doesn't it? I mean, I know the Astros are starting to get a little betting love, and the line isn't wildly off-base (like when we capitalized on the Orioles being a home favorite), but Jurrjens was a public darling last year, and if you look at some of his lines, this year, this one looks even weirder. Jurrjens was a "pick" on the road in Cincinnati against Bronson Arroyo, a more reliable starter on a better team, and is only 25 cents more expensive here? I wouldn't back the Braves, who have struggled mightily on the road over the last month. The Astros aren't truly a dangerous team, but Happ is 2-0 with a 2.23 ERA against the Braves, another 6-inning, 1 or 2-run performance might be enough. Jurrjens, by the way, has not been convincing, at all, on the road (the Braves have won all 6 of his home starts, and are 1-5 when he starts on the road).

D'backs @ Brewers (-130) with a total of 9
While I liked the value in backing the Brewers at roughly this number, yesterday, I definitely don't feel similarly, today. In fact, I'm a tiny bit confused by the line, and I can only assume it's because I know more about Barry Enright than probably 98% of the betting world. That wasn't meant to be an arrogant remark, it's just that I've been semi-following a lot of those 2008 Visalia Oaks through the Minors, so when he broke into the Bigs (and has delivered a quality start almost every time out), I've been taking notes. The League still hasn't figured him out, and while the D'backs don't seem to want to throw him longer than 6 innings lately, he's fighting his way through those frames. Manny Parra, meanwhile, has been serving it up. He has an impressive, if brief, career mark against the D'backs (1-0, 0.86), but that tells us next to nothing, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Arizona put up a crooked number on him. Milwaukee is really mashing, though, and that scares me with that Arizona pen waiting in the wings.

Pirates @ Padres (-200) with a total of 7
This one is out of our price range. I was hoping we might see it in the 160-170 range, which would have been value on the Padres, but at -200, we move along. When there are 15 games, and most of them have reasonable lines, no reason to stress out about these ugly ones.

Cubs @ Giants (-200) with a total of 6.5
I stand corrected. Two ugly lines in a row. This is an Over play, or nothing. I tend to think nothing is the way to go.

American League

Orioles @ Indians (-135) with a total of 9
It's funny - if you had told me a month ago that I'd actually be curious about this series, I'd have called you a liar and a thief, but here we are. The issue with this particular game, at least for me, is that Justin Masterson is all over the map. He's coming off a 5-inning, 1-run effort against the Red Sox, but his start before that was a 5.1-inning, 8-run debacle against the Jays. He gives up a ton of hits, and if he can get some double play balls, he can keep teams at bay, but the Orioles, interestingly, have hit him hard. Arrieta has been equally inconsistent, though he, too, is coming off a good one. I think we can save our money for a later game in this series, maybe when we get a pitcher with a little more predictability on the hill for either team.

Rays @ Tigers (-115) with a total of 8
Hellickson is a beast. He's the top dog coming up through a loaded Minor League system, and we saw the kind of damage he can do in his Major League debut against the Twins. There isn't going to be much in the way of scouting reports on this kid yet, and the Tigers are packing about as much punch lately as the Mariners. If they score 4 in this game, it'll be a triumph of epic proportions. Max Scherzer, similarly, has been very, very good, and would have been even better with a little defense in his one outing against the Rays this year. Heck, he was in a battle of no-hitters until he gave up some walks, an error, and a grand slam. He'll be looking to get the better of this team in round two. So, let's see, the Rays were struggling coming into this series, the Tigers are about one 3-game losing streak away from ending the season's hopes, and both pitchers are the focal points. I'm looking at the total.

Red Sox @ Blue Jays (-130) with a total of 8
I think this game has four notes. First, Boston comes off a rather important series split in New York, at least in terms of building momentum. Second, that series was an emotional one, so can they keep the energy up going from the mayhem in the Bronx to, well, Canada? Third, the Jays have been hot, winning both high and low-scoring games. Fourth, Ricky Romero can't seem to get the Red Sox out. He's 1-4 with an 8.76 ERA against Boston in his short Major League career. Those are really the key points in this one, the way I see it. Matsuzaka has quietly been Boston's second best starter behind Jon Lester, and he's a sneaky 6-1 against the Jays in his career. I know seeing Boston as a dog to the Jays is a little disconcerting, and the first inclination might be to think it's a mistake, but I think this line is pretty accurate.

Yankees @ Rangers (-140) with a total of 9.5
Hm...I will admit, this one gives me pause, and I'm having trouble putting my finger on exactly why. Burnett is obviously a huge question mark, and after getting his Sunday start scratched for back tightness, to bounce back with this Tuesday outing is a little scary. Wilson, meanwhile, has been Texas's most profitable bet this season, but he's 0-3 against the Yankees, and has never really looked all that comfortable against them (including this year). This line is probably about where it should be, if we assume that Burnett's back issues cause him to get hit a bit, but that total looks pretty darn high. If that many runs are going to get scored, this one could go all sorts of directions. I suppose with a gun to my head, Texas and the chalk is probably a little less frightening.

Twins @ White Sox (-120) with a total of 9
Somehow, Freddy Garcia has faced the Twins 3 times, and Baker has faced the Sox just once, but all 4 of those combined starts have been solid. Therein lies our problem. Do we expect Baker to go 7 innings against the Sox again in this one like he did in April? Do we expect Baker to continue to pitch better, as he has been doing in his last 3 starts (though, moreso in 2 of those starts than the 3rd)? Or, do we expect the 5.77 career ERA against Chicago rear it's ugly head? On Garcia's side, I think it's fair to assume he goes 6-7 innings and gives up between 1 and 3 runs. That's nice to be able to almost mark that down in the scorebook before it happens. This one comes down to Baker, completely. The Sox come home off a tough road trip to Detroit and Baltimore, which leaves them a little vulnerable.

Royals @ Angels (-260) with a total of 8.5
Wowzers, what's with West coast games and inflated lines? The Angels will have had a day to adjust to Pacific time, so I'll kindly pass on this lopsided madness.

Athletics @ Mariners (-135) with a total of 6.5
Brett Anderson apparently needed only one start to get his sea legs back, struggling against the White Sox before bouncing back and dominating the Royals. We all know about Felix Hernandez, but with the Mariners hit, there's almost no good reason to pay this kind of price for anyone. Now, that's how I would have left this paragraph if Manager Don Wakamatsu hadn't been fired, yesterday. It'll be interesting to see how this team responds to having their Triple-A Manager promoted. Will they play like they care, if briefly, or continue to go through the motions? We know the A's are playing with purpose, as those young guys want spots on the team next year, and they know how bodies get moved around in Oakland. The Over is probably the ugliest wager on the entire board, and I don't have the stones to play it, but in a game this low-scoring, even if it's a coin-flip, that means the A's are the better play.

Tips and Trends

Florida Marlins at Washington Nationals

Marlins: Florida has been consistent this year both at home and on the road, as they are 1 game under .500 in each setting. The Marlins are 54-56 SU this season, 9.5 games behind the National League East division lead. Florida is one of the most talented teams in baseball, yet can't seem to get out of their own way. The Marlins are -1.20 and -5.35 units both SU and on the RL this year. Pitcher Anibal Sanchez will make the road start tonight, as he is 8-7 with an ERA of 3.50 and a WHIP of 1.38 this season. The Marlins are 3-7 in their last 10 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Florida is 1-4 in their last 5 games following an off day. The Marlins are 1-5 in their last 6 games against a right-handed starter. Florida is 5-2 in Sanchez's last 7 starts during game 1 of a series. The Marlins are 2-9 in Sanchez's last 11 road starts against a team with a losing record. Florida is 0-4 in Sanchez's last 4 starts against the National League East.

Marlins are 1-4 last 5 games against the National League East.
Over is 10-1 last 11 games against a right-handed starter.

Key Injuries - RF Cody Ross (neck) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 2

Nationals (-185, O/U 7): Washington might be in last place in the National League East, but optimism is high with star pitcher Stephen Strasburg taking the mound tonight. After battling some injury concerns, Strasburg will take center stage tonight. Washington is 49-63 SU this season, including 29-23 SU at home. The Nationals are -1.63 and -5.20 units both SU and on the RL this season. Strasburg is 5-2 this season, with an ERA of 2.32 and a WHIP of 1.07 this year. The Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 games during game 1 of a series. Washington is 5-1 in their last 6 home games against a right-handed starter. The Nationals are 5-1 in their last 6 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. The Nationals are 4-1 in their last 5 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Washington is 4-0 in Strasburg's last 4 starts overall.

Nationals are 16-43 last 59 games following an off day.
Under is 5-0-1 last 6 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.

Key Injuries - CF Nyjer Morgan (hip) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 3 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies

Dodgers: Los Angeles has struggled against the National League East this year, as they are only 10-13 SU. The Dodgers have a winning record against the Central and West divisions of the National League, so clearly this series with the red hot Phillies could be troublesome. Los Angeles needs all the wins they can get, as they are in 4th place in the National League West at 58-54 SU. The Dodgers are -6.65 and -11.26 units both SU and on the RL this year. Pitcher Vicente Padilla will make the road start tonight, as he is 5-3 with an ERA of 3.09 and a WHIP of 0.97 this season. The Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the National League East. Los Angeles is 4-10 in their last 14 games during game 1 of a series. The Dodgers are 1-6 in their last 7 road games against a right-handed starter. Los Angeles is 2-5 in Padilla's last 7 starts against a team with a winning record. The Dodgers are 1-7 in Padilla's last 8 road starts.

Dodgers are 4-13 last 17 games following an off day.
Under is 8-2 last 10 games against a right-handed starter.

Key Injuries - SS Rafael Furcal (back) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 3

Phillies (-115, O/U 8.5): Philadelphia keeps winning, and as a result they are within 2 games of Atlanta in the National League East division. The Phillies have been brilliant for quite some time now, despite injuries to key players. The Phillies are 62-49 SU this season, including 34-18 SU at home. Philadelphia is -0.76 and -8.48 units both SU and on the RL respectively this season. Pitcher Kyle Kendrick will take the mound tonight, as he is 7-4 with an ERA of 4.37 and a WHIP of 1.29 this year. The Phillies are 9-1 in their last 10 games against a right-handed starter. Philadelphia is 14-3 in their last 17 games on grass. The Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Phillies are 48-23 in their last 71 games against the National League West. Philadelphia is 5-0 in Kendrick's last 5 home starts overall. The Phillies are 5-1 in Kendrick's last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Philadelphia is 17-4 in Kendrick's last 21 starts with 5 days of rest. The Phillies are 4-1 in Kendrick's last 5 starts against the National League West.

Phillies are 8-0 last 8 home games against a team with a winning record.
Over is 8-0 last 8 games against a right-handed starter.

Key Injuries - 2B Chase Utley (thumb) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)

Diamond Trends - Tuesday
By Vince Akins

Royals at Angels – The Angels are 0-5 since June 14, 2010 as a 140+ favorite after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $745 when playing against.

Braves at Astros – The Astros are 9-0 since June 02, 2010 at home after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $1035.

Red Sox at Blue Jays – The Red Sox are 0-6 since June 30, 2010 when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $870 when playing against. The Red Sox are 0-5 since July 20, 2010 after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $870 when playing against. The Blue Jays are 8-0 since May 15, 2010 at home when they came back from a deficit to win in their starter's last start for a net profit of $855.

Diamondbacks at Brewers – The Diamondbacks are 0-7 since April 15, 2010 on the road after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent as a dog for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Brewers are 6-0 since July 29, 2009 when Manny Parra starts at home after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $680. The Brewers are 5-0 since June 06, 2010 after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $645.

Cubs at Giants – The Cubs are 0-7 since April 24, 2009 when Ryan Dempster starts on the road after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $730 when playing against. The Cubs are 0-7 since May 21, 2010 as a dog when they came back from a deficit to win in their starter's last start for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Giants are 7-0 since April 30, 2010 as a home 140+ favorite when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $700.

Orioles at Indians – The Orioles are 0-6 since May 05, 2010 on the road when they won by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Indians are 0-5 since April 12, 2010 at home after a loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base for a net profit of $500 when playing against.

Athletics at Mariners – The Athletics are 7-0 since July 20, 2010 when they are off a loss in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs for a net profit of $795.

Rockies at Mets – The Rockies are 0-6 since May 07, 2010 on the road after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $690 when playing against. The Mets are 7-0 since June 08, 2010 at home after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $700.

Marlins at Nationals – The Marlins are 5-0 since May 19, 2010 as a road dog after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $730. The Nationals are 8-0 since April 08, 2010 at home after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent as a dog for a net profit of $940.

Pirates at Padres – The Pirates are 0-10 since May 28, 2010 on the road after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The Pirates are 0-9 since April 30, 2010 on the road when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Padres are 7-0 since May 30, 2010 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $700.

Dodgers at Phillies – The Phillies are 10-0 since May 05, 2010 at home after a one run win for a net profit of $1010. The Phillies are 7-0 since May 05, 2010 when Kyle Kendrick starts at home vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $750.

Yankees at Rangers – The Yankees are 8-0 since May 30, 2010 after a loss in which they drew 5+ walks for a net profit of $800. The Yankees are 0-5 since August 27, 2009 when A.J. Burnett starts after giving up 2 or more home runs and they lost in his previous start for a net profit of $715 when playing against.

Cardinals at Reds – The Cardinals are 0-12 since April 08, 2010 on the road when they are off a win in which they never trailed and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1400 when playing against. The Reds are 7-0 since May 03, 2010 as a home favorite when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $700.

Rays at Tigers – The Tigers are 5-0 since May 15, 2010 at home after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent as a dog for a net profit of $545. The Tigers are 0-5 since April 12, 2010 when Max Scherzer starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $630 when playing against.

Twins at White Sox – The Twins are 7-0 since July 22, 2010 when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $770. The White Sox are 0-5 since April 08, 2010 at home after a loss in which they drew 5+ walks for a net profit of $610 when playing against.