MLB News and Notes Tuesday 8/17

MLB RoundUp For 8/17
By Dan Bebe

National League

Marlins (-150) @ Pirates with a total of 8
This is a wildly inflated line, but given the pitchers' historical work against the other club, I couldn't possibly bring myself to back the dog. Ricky Nolasco is just 2-3 against the Pirates, but holds a 2.45 ERA, while Duke is 0-3 with a 5.76 ERA against the Marlins. Dan Uggla, Hanley Ramirez, Emilio Bonifacio, and even Hector Luna have all gotten in on the fun of beating Duke senseless. Pittsburgh's regulars don't really have anything to show for their work against Nolasco. Florida has been playing pretty well since the Break, and the Pirates are the Pirates. At -150, the price is far too high to take Florida, but I couldn't possibly back the Pirates here, either. Let's see where the line works.

Giants @ Phillies (-145) with a total of 7.5
This game is probably more evenly matched than most folks would think, though the Giants might be a dicey play coming off that tough series with the Padres. The Phillies have been playing pretty well of late, and even though Oswalt is just 5-8 in his career against the Giants, I expect a decent performance from him, following up a strong start against the Dodgers. Zito's recent issue has been the home run ball, and even though he's been pretty solid outside of the dinger, 8 longballs surrendered in his last 5 starts is not setting yourself up for a win. I'd have to think that Oswalt and the surging Phillies should get the first look, but that might be all anyone gets in this deal.

Nationals @ Braves (-185) with a total of 8.5
This one is too expensive to play the Braves, and not enough reason to back the slowly sinking Nats. Olsen is a rather ugly 4-5, 5.65 lifetime against Atlanta (from his time with the Marlins). Olsen is coming off an ugly outing, and while Minor wasn't great, he was decent, and we all know how the adrenaline rush for a rookie can help with that first home start. Pass.

Mets (-160) @ Astros with a total of 7
Johan Santana has been downright scary good, at times. He's had a few speed bumps along the way, and the lack of run support is going to keep him from being among the Cy Young candidates, but all of the sudden, you look up, and he's got a 2.89 ERA, and actually leads the League in a poorly-tracked stat that I like to call "dominant" starts, of 7 innings or more, and 0 earned runs allowed. He's 2-1 with a 2.52 ERA against the Astros, though the concern, again, is whether the Mets will score off their former teammate, Nelson Figueroa. If you think New York puts up 3-4 runs, they should win handily. If they score 1-2 runs yet again, laying -160 is horrifying.

Padres (-119) @ Cubs with a total of N/A
The Cubs continue to baffle me. They look like they care for 2-3 games every month, and if you can find those games, you can get some tremendous value. Of course, you always run the risk of backing Chicago on a day where they don't even care. Garland is 3-4 against the Cubs, lifetime, though he hasn't seen much of them, recently. Wells is 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA against the Padres, and one of the new Padres, Ryan Ludwick, could make Wells' numbers a little uglier. He was 2-for-3 before this year with a pair of homers off Wells, and he's starting to make a little noise in the Padres lineup. Tough call, here, though at this time of year, playing on the team with some motivation probably won't do much worse than breaking even.

Brewers @ Cardinals (-200) with a total of 9
Dave Bush has a lifetime 2-6, 6.40 mark against the Cardinals. Garcia is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA against Milwaukee in his short career. It sure looks like a home RL play, but I'm not touching a Dave Bush game no matter what the career numbers say. This will be the night he goes 8 shutout innings, that's just how Bush operates.

Reds (-120) @ D'backs with a total of 9
This is a pretty cheap line to back the Reds, and there's no question that a ton of folks will likely jump at the opportunity. Bronson Arroyo has been supremely consistent this year, and the Reds have given him the support he's needed to rack up 12 wins. That being said, Arroyo isn't coming off the world's best start, as he gave up 4 runs in 5 innings to the Cardinals. He's also just 1-3 with a 5.23 ERA lifetime against the D'backs. Daniel Hudson has been a beast with Arizona since the Edwin Jackson trade, and I can't help but think that with Arizona's pen looking almost serviceable, they do have a shot to win a game in this series, and while the first game home is often a bad time to back a team, Arroyo is beatable, if the D'backs are patient.

Rockies @ Dodgers (-174) with a total of 7
The Dodgers return home off another embarrassing road trip, and it seems pretty clear that most of this team has stopped caring. The starters are still going out there and looking to get those arbitration dollars (or next contract), but just about everyone on contract for 2011 has started to pack it in. Laying 174 with a team that doesn't seem to give a hoot is just a disastrous plan. The Rockies, despite being about as far back as the Dodgers, have not packed it in. They are a young team with a ton of fight, but have been pretty terrible on the road. If this game was in Coors, I'd be on the Rockies in a heartbeat. In LA, someone's probably going to take this contest on a bad-hop single, or something similarly ugly.

American League

Tigers @ Yankees (-180) with a total of 8
This could be a pretty well-pitched game, and really, there are a few Tigers that have hit Sabathia hard, in the past. Unfortunately, the Tigers are so hit-or-miss offensively, and it's so easy to pitch around the heart of that lineup (which, right now, is just the #4 hitter), that even if they're on top of things, and even if they put some runners on base, Sabathia should be able to get Laird or Santiago, or the slumping Boesch to get out of whatever jam he might have created. And, for all his accolades and wins, Verlander is not really a lights-out starter. He tends to give up at least 2-3 runs in most starts, and while he goes 7 innings almost every time - he is a horse - those numbers against the Yankees might not be good enough.

Mariners @ Orioles (-124) with a total of 9
I honestly can't even wrap my head around how bad Millwood has been, this year. He's 2-12 with a 5.74 ERA, and 8-12 with a 5.13 ERA lifetime against the Mariners. I will give him credit - he has been trying again since Showalter showed up, and while the Orioles have lost his 2 starts under the new Manager, Millwood has made them both quality, and I wouldn't be surprised to see that renewed gusto in another decent start. I happen to think that we're getting a pretty nice price on this game simply because of Millwood's awful season, and the fact that Baltimore loses his starts keeps folks from noticing that he is actually pitching a little better. The Orioles haven't seen the soft-tossing Luke French, a bit of a change-up artist that will probably give up a few runs before his day is done.

Angels @ Red Sox (-140) with a total of 8
This might be the game of the night, but as is often the case, that doesn't necessarily mean there's a ton of betting value. I would note that the total of 8 is relatively high for two guys with ERA's in the 2's. Weaver, the AL strikeout leader, is 2-3 with a 3.81 ERA against the Sox; Buchholz, the AL ERA leader is 3-2 with a 5.16 ERA against the Halos. Interestingly, Buccholz went 7 stellar innings in Anaheim, but didn't pitch well against the Angels, at all, when he faced them here at home, earlier this year. Weaver went 7 innings of 2-run ball against the Sox in a losing effort, so it's tough to really get a feel for how things are going to shake out. The Angels are truly teetering on the brink of playoff contention, while Boston is actually within striking distance, or at least moreso. I don't think I can trust the Angels to score runs, and that bullpen is a disaster.

Rangers @ Rays (-144) with a total of 8.5
Again, the numbers are generally a little ugly, since the Rays just stink beyond stink when they play the Rangers in Texas. Here at home, however, things should be a little more even. Hunter is 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA lifetime against the Rays, but he's been slowing a tad, and 2 of his last 3 starts have been significantly below average. I worry that the kid is hitting a bit of a wall. Garza, meanwhile, has gotten back on track, though he, like some other flame-throwers, does have a tendency to give up a homer here and there. He's 4-3 with a 4.53 ERA against the Rangers, but again, the numbers get inflated from some poor work in Texas, and overall, the current Rangers haven't hit Garza much, at all. This line is high for a reason.

White Sox @ Twins (-120) with a total of 8.5
This will be Danks' 5th start this season against the Twins. He's been very good in 2, good in 1, and not so great in 1. That being said, the common theme in those 4 starts is that the games have been pretty hotly contested. 3 of the 4 games started by Danks have been decided by a single run. Baker, on the other side, has been good against the Sox once this year, and not as great once, but the Twins did find a way to win both of those games. Baker's been decent enough, though rarely has he been unhittable, and that makes the Sox a potential dog play. I definitely want to back Minnesota at some point in this series, considering how well they've been hitting, but Danks' body of work this year makes me think he keeps this one very close, and a coin-flip means you have to look at the dog, or nothing.

Indians @ Royals (-174) with a total of 8
Jeanmar Gomez jumped to the Bigs and hasn't looked back. He's 3-0 with a 1.54 ERA for the Indians, and making his first start against the Royals here as a very live, and large dog. Greinke still gets a ton of line inflation from the awards he's collected, but he just hasn't been the same this year, and his ERA of 4 is a good indicator that there have been just as many bad starts as great ones. Greinke has been alternating good and bad starts over the last 3 weeks, but that doesn't really tell us much. More importantly, he beat the Indians in his one start against them this year, despite allowing 3 runs in 6 innings - the just-barely-quality start line. I don't think I'd recommend a big play on either side, but I certainly can't get behind an inconsistent Greinke against a better-than-advertised Indians club.

Blue Jays (-119) with a total of 7
This one sort of falls into a "system" play, in that we can fade the guy coming off the unbelievable, get-me-on-ESPN game to get the best value. That would, for better or worse, put us on Oakland, and against Brandon Morrow. Don't get me wrong, as a Cal grad, I have no choice but to root for Morrow's success (as well as a few other Cal grads floating around in the MLB), but in terms of straight value, Braden has been pitching very well over his last 4-5 starts (aside from one subpar effort against Texas), and this ballpark is not at all conducive to the way that Toronto does a large part of their scoring. If even 1 or 2 of those Rogers Centre homers die on the warning track in Oakland, that could be the difference between winning 1 or 2 games. And Morrow, who threw an amazing 1-hitter with 17 strikeouts against the Rays in his last start is definitely in the standard letdown spot. He's pitching in front of his College buddies in Northern California, too.

Tuesday MLB Tips
By Kevin Rogers

The Tuesday baseball card involves three key matchups that can narrow division and Wild Card leads. The White Sox and Twins meet for their second series in a week, while the Rays and Rangers continue their three-game set at Tropicana Field. We'll start in Philadelphia with a battle of two second-place clubs trying to make that leap inside their respective division races.

Giants at Phillies - 7:05 PM EST

These two are separated by one percentage point heading into Tuesday's action, as Philadelphia (66-51) leads San Francisco (67-52) by one game in the NL Wild Card chase. The Giants had an opportunity to take over first place in the NL West this past weekend, but lost two of three to the Padres to fall 3 ½ games out. The Phillies, meanwhile, grabbed two of three at New York, while holding the Mets to just two runs in the entire series.

A pair of reliable veterans takes the mound in the opener with Roy Oswalt and Barry Zito squaring off. Oswalt (7-13, 3.34 ERA) is coming off his best start in a Phillies' uniform, limiting Los Angeles to five hits in seven scoreless innings in a 2-0 home victory. The right-hander continues to receive lousy run support (2.3 runs/game), but is getting into a groove with consecutive quality starts. Oswalt is 0-3 in his three starts versus the Giants this season, while being on the losing end against two-time reigning Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum in all three outings.

Zito (8-6, 3.44 ERA) put together his first non-quality start in his previous six outings, but the Giants still managed a 5-4 victory over the Cubs his last time out. Following several subpar road starts, Zito scattered 10 hits and four earned runs in 14 innings of work against the Braves and Dodgers over the last month. The former Cy Young winner didn't face the Phillies when they visited AT&T Park in late April, but the southpaw has seen plenty of success against Philadelphia. Zito has allowed two earned runs in two starts against the Phillies since coming over to the Giants in 2007, both San Francisco victories.

The Giants captured two of three from the Phillies in April, as San Francisco was two outs away from a sweep. Jayson Werth's three-run double off Giants' closer Brian Wilson forced extra-innings and Philadelphia held on for a 7-6 victory in the series finale. If the Giants would have held on in the ninth, all three games finish 'under' the total, instead of two out of three. The 'under' is now 7-3 between these teams since 2009, including all three meetings last September at Citizens Bank Park.

Rangers at Rays - 7:10 PM EST

A potential playoff preview takes place at Tropicana Field as Tampa Bay and Texas hook up for the second of a three-game set. The Rangers are cruising in the AL West race, while the Rays sit atop the Wild Card and one back of the Yankees in the AL East.

After Monday's showdown of southpaw aces with Cliff Lee and David Price, the arms turn over with Tommy Hunter and Matt Garza taking the hill. Hunter (9-1, 3.38 ERA) started the season on fire, but has cooled off recently by allowing 12 earned runs in his last three starts. Sandwiched in between two horrible outings against the Angels and Red Sox was a scoreless performance at punchless Seattle. Hunter is not known as a strikeout pitcher, as the Rangers are 4-1 in his five road outings, with the lone loss coming in a 9-7 setback at the Angels. The righty silenced the Tampa Bay bats in a complete-game gem on June 5 in Arlington, scattering five hits.

Garza (11-7, 3.92 ERA) is suffering from a no-hitter hangover as the Rays are winless in his three starts since a 5-0 masterpiece against the Tigers on July 26. The Tampa Bay righty hasn't pitched poorly in this stretch, as the Rays have lost all three games by a run apiece. Garza has turned into a strong play after a non-quality start, with Tampa Bay going 6-3, including a pair of one-run setbacks to Toronto. The Rays are 9-3 in his 12 home starts, while Garza beat the Rangers in Arlington on June 6 by a 9-5 count, despite lasting only 5.2 innings.

This series has been dominated by the home team since the start of last season, with the host owning a 9-3 mark. To be fair, nine of those meetings were in Arlington, as Tampa Bay took two of three last August at home. Tampa Bay has dominated in Game 2's of a series, going 25-13, the best mark of any game in a series.

White Sox at Twins - 8:10 PM EST

The top two clubs in the AL Central renew acquaintances for the second time in a week as the venue shifts to the Twin Cities. The Twins opened up a three-game advantage in the AL Central after Chicago stubbed its toe against Detroit, while Minnesota swept Oakland. Both squads send out reliable arms in the series opener, as the Sox try to get back on a winning track.

John Danks (12-8, 3.19 ERA) hasn't been able to string together three straight quality starts since mid-May, as that is the task ahead for the Chicago southpaw. Danks is coming off consecutive solid outings against the Orioles and Twins, including a 6-1 victory over Minnesota last Wednesday in Chicago's only win of that crucial series. The Sox are 2-2 against the Twins this season in his four starts, with three games decided by one run.

The Twins send out Scott Baker (10-9, 4.76 ERA), who is clearly a better pitcher when he toes the rubber at Target Field. Minnesota is 7-4 in his 11 home starts, but the righty has taken a step back after a 15-9 mark in 2009. If there's one thing Baker has done well in his career is beating the White Sox consistently. The Twins are 7-1 in his previous eight starts against Chicago, including a pair of wins at U.S. Cellular Field this season. In Baker's last outing versus the Sox, the righty allowed five runs and eight hits in six innings, but the Twins' offense helped carry him to a 12-6 triumph.

This series has been all about Minnesota, as the Twins are 8-4 this season against the Sox, including a 4-2 mark at Target Field. Chicago has responded well in series openers off a loss, going 13-5 in this situation off Sunday's late meltdown against Detroit.

vegasinsider.com

Diamond Trends - Tuesday
By Vince Akins

Mets at Astros – The Mets are 0-9 since June 19, 2010 after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $980 when playing against. The Mets are 0-7 since June 24, 2010 when they are off a win in which they never trailed and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $740 when playing against.

Blue Jays at Athletics – The Blue Jays are 0-6 since May 25, 2010 on the road after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $600 when playing against.

Nationals at Braves – The Nationals are 0-10 since April 20, 2010 as a dog after a win in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The Braves are 6-0 since May 28, 2010 at home when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $600.

Brewers at Cardinals – The Brewers are 6-0 since June 06, 2010 as a dog when they are off a loss in which they held the lead for a net profit of $885. The Cardinals are 10-0 since April 12, 2010 at home when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $1000.

Padres at Cubs – The Padres are 5-0 since April 27, 2010 when Jon Garland starts on the road after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $655. The Cubs are 0-6 since July 31, 2010 as a dog when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $600 when playing against.

Reds at Diamondbacks – The Reds are 7-0 since August 13, 2009 when Bronson Arroyo starts after his team scored a total of fewer than three runs in his last start for a net profit of $810. The Reds are 5-0 since May 11, 2010 when they are off a win in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs for a net profit of $550.

Rockies at Dodgers – The Rockies are 0-7 since May 07, 2010 on the road after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $835 when playing against.

Mariners at Orioles - The Mariners are 0-13 since May 13, 2010 after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1345 when playing against. The Mariners are 0-8 since April 24, 2010 as a dog after a loss in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $800 when playing against.

Giants at Phillies – The Giants are 7-0 since June 07, 2010 as a dog vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $915. The Phillies are 6-0 since April 12, 2010 as a home favorite when they are off a win in which they never trailed and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $600.

Marlins at Pirates – The Pirates are 0-9 since July 10, 2009 when Zach Duke starts as a dog after losing as an away dog in his last start for a net profit of $900 when playing against.

Rangers at Rays – The Rangers are 7-0 since July 27, 2009 when Tommy Hunter starts vs a team that lost their starters last two starts for a net profit of $720. The Rangers are 6-0 since July 15, 2010 when they are off a loss in which they held the lead for a net profit of $670.

Angels at Red Sox – The Red Sox are 12-0 since April 20, 2010 as a favorite after a loss and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $1200. The Red Sox are 6-0 since May 03, 2010 when Clay Buchholz starts as a home favorite for a net profit of $600.

Indians at Royals – The Royals are 6-0 since April 26, 2010 at home after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $695.

White Sox at Twins – The White Sox are 7-0 since April 23, 2010 as a dog when they are off a loss in which they held the lead for a net profit of $945. The Twins are 0-6 since May 11, 2010 after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $730 when playing against.

Tigers at Yankees – The Tigers are 0-7 since May 09, 2010 on the road vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $790 when playing against. The Tigers are 6-0 since September 04, 2009 when Justin Verlander starts after the team won their last three games for a net profit of $600. The Yankees are 8-0 since June 06, 2010 when they are off a loss in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $850.

Tips and Trends

San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies

Giants: San Francisco is coming off an emotional series at home this past weekend against San Diego. The Giants will have to bounce back quickly, as they now go on the road to face Philadelphia. The Giants have fared quite well against the National League East, going 18-12 SU this year. San Francisco is 67-52 SU this year, including 30-29 SU on the road. The Giants are +8.45 and -7.41 units both SU and on the RL respectively this season. Lefty Barry Zito will get the road start tonight, as he is 8-6 with an ERA of 3.44 and a WHIP of 1.24 this year. The Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 games following an off day. San Francisco is 4-1 in their last 5 Tuesday games. The Giants are 17-8 in their last 25 games against a right-handed starter. San Francisco is 1-4 in their last 5 games against the National League East. The Giants are 8-2 in Zito's last 10 starts against the National League East. San Francisco is 4-1 in Zito's last 5 starts against a team with a winning record. The Giants are 10-3 in Zito's last 13 starts with 5 days of rest. The Giants are 1-5 in Zito's last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.

Giants are 11-2 last 13 games following a loss.
Under is 4-1 last 5 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%.

Key Injuries - SS Edgar Renteria (arm) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4

Phillies (-145, O/U 7.5): Philadelphia has been dominant of late, even without a vast majority of their stars. A few key components of their roster are due on the field tonight, so Phillies faithful should be excited. The Phillies are 66-51 SU this season, 2 games behind Atlanta in the National League East division. Philadelphia has been dominant at home this year, going 36-19 SU. Philadelphia is +1.23 and -5.87 units both SU and on the RL overall this year. Roy Oswalt will make the home start tonight, as he is 7-13 SU with an ERA of 3.34 and a WHIP of 1.12 this season. The Phillies are 10-1 in their last 11 home games against a team with a winning record. Philadelphia is 6-1 in their last 7 home games against a left-handed starter. The Phillies are 13-4 in their last 17 games following a win. The Phillies are 50-24 in their last 74 games against the National League West. Philadelphia is 18-5 in their last 23 games on grass.

Phillies are 9-1 last 10 games against a team with a winning record.
Under is 9-2 last 11 home games against a left-handed starter.

Key Injuries - LF Ross Gload (groin) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (OVER - Total of the Day)

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins

White Sox: Chicago has gone cold just as Minnesota starting winning, which is why these teams have flip-flopped in the American League Central. Chicago has lost 7 of their past 10 games, and stand 65-53 SU for the year. The White Sox have struggled with the Twins this season, as they've lost 8 of the 12 meetings this season. Chicago is +8.70 and +4.52 units both SU and on the RL respectively this year. Pitcher John Danks will make the road start tonight, as he is 12-8 with an ERA of 3.19 and a WHIP of 1.12 this year. The White Sox are 15-3 in their last 18 games during game 1 of a series. Chicago is 7-2 in their last 9 Tuesday games. The White Sox are 23-9 in their last 32 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The White Sox are 28-12 in their last 40 games following a loss. Chicago is 1-4 in their last 5 games against a right-handed starter. The White Sox are 5-1 in Danks' last 6 starts against a team with a winning record. The White Sox are 4-1 in Danks' last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Chicago is 4-1 in Danks' last 5 starts against the American League Central.

White Sox are 6-0 last 6 games following an off day.
Under is 4-0 last 4 road games.

Key Injuries - None.

PROJECTED SCORE: 3

Twins (-120, O/U 8.5): Minnesota has been brilliant of late, as they've won 8 of their previous 10 games. As a result of their recent hot streak, the Twins have taken control of the American League Central division. Minnesota is 68-50 SU this season, placing them 3 games ahead of everyone else in their division. The Twins are +9.36 and -2.27 units both SU and on the RL this season. Pitcher Scott Baker will take the mound tonight, as he is 10-9 with an ERA of 4.76 and a WHIP of 1.32 this year. The Twins are 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a team with a winning record. Minnesota is 6-1 in their last 7 games against a left-handed starter. The Twins are 21-6 in their last 27 games on grass. The Twins are 16-5 in their last 21 games following a win. Minnesota is 6-1 in Baker's last 7 starts against a team with a winning record. The Twins are 14-5 in Baker's last 19 home starts. Minnesota is 15-6 in Baker's last 21 starts against the American League Central.

Twins are 47-21 last 68 games against the American League Central.
Over is 6-0-1 last 7 games following an off day.

Key Injuries - SS J.J. Hardy (wrist) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)