Tuesday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streakers
R.A. Dickey, New York Mets (8-5, 2.41 ERA)
The 35-year-old knuckleballer has been absolutely dealing his past two starts.
Dickey, who has a special glove he makes his catchers wear, has gone 17.1 innings combined his past two starts, including one complete game. Over that span he has allowed only two earned runs and struck out 13 against only two walks.
There actually is a Yahoo! Answers question entitled “Who the Hell is R.A. Dickey?” Don’t get caught asking the same thing.
Travis Wood, Cincinnati Reds (4-1, 2.51 ERA)
The 23-year-old South Paw has been dynamite for the upstart Reds this season.
Wood has won his past four starts by being economical with his pitches and inducing lots of fly ball outs. In his four victories he has forced 48 fly ball outs compared to just 20 ground balls. This is a huge reason he has allowed only six earned runs over his past 24.2 innings.
"Everything was feeling pretty good," Wood told the Associated Press. "We're playing well right now. Hopefully we can carry it over and just keep moving on with it."
Slumping
Carl Pavano, Minnesota Twins (4-3, 5.01 ERA)
The mustache has taken several big hits in his past two starts.
Well, to be totally fair, he allowed only one home run the last two times he took the mound, but it was the 24 other hits he yielded over his past 12.1 innings Over that span he has allowed nine earned runs and has failed to throw at least 100 pitches in either outing.
"Maybe I'm getting a little too much of the plate and the ball's up a little bit or maybe I'm being a little too predictable as far as my pitch sequences," Pavano told the Associated Press. "It's something I'm going to have to revisit and look at and make some adjustments, that's for sure."
Rodrigo Lopez (5-11, 4.94 ERA)
The right-hander has seen better days.
The over has hit in his past three straight starts with opponents finishing with at least five runs in each of those outings. Overall, he has allowed 13 total runs over his past 15 innings.
He also has allowed a combined three home runs the past two times he toed the rubber.
Tuesday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
**Twins at Rangers**
Most betting shops are listing Texas (69-54, -126) as a minus-135 favorite with a total of nine ‘under’ (minus-120). Bettors can back the Rangers on the run line (minus 1 ½ runs) for a generous plus-155 payout (risk $100 to win $155).
Minnesota (72-52, +994) has won 23 of its last 30 games dating back to July 21. The Twins are 32-30 on the road this year. They lead the American League Central by five games over the White Sox.
Texas is in first place in the AL West, leading the Angels and A’s by eight games apiece. The Rangers have cashed tickets at a 39-23 clip at home.
Carl Pavano (15-8, 3.52) owns an 8-4 record and 3.13 ERA in 13 road assignments this year. The veteran righty is 1-2 with a 9.00 ERA in four career starts against the Rangers.
Colby Lewis (9-10, 3.37) has posted a 5-3 record and 2.95 ERA in 10 home starts this season. The right-hander has taken losses in both of his career starts against the Twins with a 4.40 ERA.
Texas slugger Josh Hamilton is 3-for-9 off Pavano for a .333 average with two doubles. Hamilton took an MLB-best .357 average into Monday’s action. Julio Borbon has five singles in seven career at-bats versus Pavano.
Ron Gardenhire’s team has an MLB-best batting average of .281. Despite the season-long absence of closer Joe Nathan, the Twins have the third-best bullpen in baseball with a 3.24 ERA. In Nathan’s absence, Matt Capps has been a more than adequate replacement, compiling a 4-3 record and 2.64 ERA with 31 saves.
The ‘over’ has cashed at a 5-1 clip in the Twins’ last six games. For the season, they have watched the
The MLB Network will have the telecast at 8:10 p.m. Eastern.
**Reds at Giants**
Most spots have made this game a pick ‘em (minus-110 either way) with a total of seven ‘over’ (minus-125). Gamblers can back San Francisco (69-56, +749) on the run line for a monster plus-175 return (risk $100 to win $175).
Cincinnati (72-52, +1864) took a 36-26 road record into Monday’s play. Dusty Baker’s squad took two of three from the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine over the weekend. Before Cincy’s series opener at San Francisco last night, it led second-place St. Louis by 3 ½ games in the NL Central.
Bruce Bochy’s club went into Monday’s play trailing the loop-leading Padres by six games in the NL West. The Giants have lost five of their last seven games.
San Francisco owns a 37-23 home record.
Jonathan Sanchez (9-8, 3.47) is 5-4 with a 3.52 ERA in 13 home appearances (12 starts) this season. The southpaw is 2-1 with a 2.41 ERA in three career starts against the Reds.
Just nine starts into his MLB career, Cincinnati LHP Travis Wood (4-1, 2.51) appears poised to be a workhorse down the stretch. The lefty has a 3-0 record and 1.83 ERA his last three times out. Wood will be facing the Giants for the first time.
The Reds are 22-17 against left-handed pitching in 2010.
The first pitch is scheduled for 10:15 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Oakland LHP Gio Gonzalez has a 3-0 record and 1.16 ERA in four career starts against Tuesday’s foe, Cleveland.
Florida RHP Josh Johnson owns the Mets with a 7-1 record and 2.55 ERA in 11 lifetime starts. The Marlins are short road favorites Tuesday at New York.
Kansas City RHP Kyle Davies is the eighth-best money pitcher in baseball this year. The Royals are 13-11 in his 24 starts for a money total of plus-923. Davies will get the starting nod Tuesday night at Detroit.
San Diego maintains the best money tally in all of baseball (plus-2952), hooking up its backers with nearly 30 units of profit.
Arizona has the majors’ worst team ERA at 5.06. In turn, the ‘over’ is an MLB-best 74-48-3 for the Diamondbacks.
vegasinsider.com
MLB RoundUp For 8/24
By Dan Bebe
National League
Cubs @ Nationals (-124) with a total of 8.5
Fading the Cubs is pretty much the way to go, these days. I will admit, though, that the one Cubbie that has at least looked like he has something to play for is Zambrano. Probably respect, I would guess. I can't back the Cubs, but Zambrano feels like a guy that is going to keep this one close for a while, and I won't play a different crappy team just because they're the lesser of two evils. Probably a pass.
Cardinals (-266) @ Pirates with a total of 7
You know our little ditty - out of price, out of mind.
Astros @ Phillies (-240) with a total of 8
Yep, no thanks.
Marlins (-126) @ Mets with a total of 6.5
This line feels a little on the low side, but then, I suppose the Mets are still a little bit of a public play just because of the city from which they hail. I know R.A. Dickey's been tremendous this year, but at the same time, most of his issues have come against the Marlins. I can't imagine this line is seriously the gift that it looks like. Still, can I really lean to the Mets? I guess they're playing a tiny bit better over the last 2 weeks than they did in the previous few, but damn. Also, the Over is a possibility, just because of the number.
Dodgers (-141) with a total of 8.5
Ted Lilly has been one of the few Dodgers that finds himself on the winning side of things, and he's really been a breath of fresh air for a team spiraling in the NL West. Something tells me this game is where things get dangerous. First, the line is inflated pretty wildly, considering the Dodgers don't ever win on the road. Second, Dave Bush, my arch nemesis of the baseball world, is going opposite Lilly, and I'm sure the moment I say he's going to pitch well, he's going to get knocked around (or vice versa), so I'm saying nothing, there. He is 1-1 with a 3.55 ERA against the Dodgers, but Belliard and Manny have done some damage against him in the past. Lilly has been able to shut down Rickie Weeks, but Braun and Fielder have hit him hard, and the value in this one is squarely on the home dog.
Braves @ Rockies (-111) with a total of 9
I made a deal with myself a few years ago (long before my Pregame time) that I would never back Derek Lowe at Coors Field, and I have yet to renege on that self-contract. Fact is, the guy is a bit of a head case, and he's already psyched himself out before he ever steps on that mound. Sure, he's seen plenty of Colorado, and has a good game plan, but when he sets foot on the field and the first thing he thinks is, "My sinker isn't going to sink," that can screw with you. I also remember the Dodgers rearranging the rotation a few years back to skip Lowe in Colorado. Maybe he's grown up, and the Braves have helped him remove the Huggies, but this game is Colorado, the Over, or nothing. De La Rosa, by the way, is 0-1 with a 12.15 ERA against the Braves. Yikes.
D'backs @ Padres (-200) with a total of 7
Rematch time! We know the Padres stink in Arizona, but things are a tad different at home. These two pitchers, meanwhile, have faced off twice already this year, both have stunk something fierce in both games, and the Padres have prevailed in both. So, we have a double-revenge spot for Lopez, but at the same time, does it matter? Fact is, he's just not good. He serves up homers at a ridiculous clip, and if he can go 6 innings of 4-run ball, it's probably a success. Richard, by the way, allowed 5 runs in both starts against the D'backs, and I know it looks like a gift given the last 2 games, but the Over is definitely in play, and I'd play the dog long before I'd touch the favorite.
Reds @ Giants (-111) with a total of 7
Despite being 2-1 with a 2.41 ERA against the Reds, Sanchez was wobbly, at best, against them earlier this year. He is much, much better at home than on the road, though, so we definitely need to take that into account, as well as the Giants' need for wins. Travis Wood has been a quality start machine since he got the call to take a rotation spot for Dusty Baker's Reds. I hate to say it, and obviously with the blog coming out early, I can't do much else, but my feelings on this game are pretty heavily dependent on how the Giants look in their first game home on Monday. If they are jetlagged, I think they bounce back. If the win the opener, we'll reassess.
American League
Yankees (-126) @ Blue Jays with a total of 10
Okay, we made it through Toronto's starter's name, now on to the line. The total is very high, that's the first thing I notice, but I imagine the lack of name recognition for the two starters is playing a large role in that. I imagine the fact that Moseley is basically just squeaking his way through 5 innings, and that Marc has been awful in 3 of his 4 starts in the Bigs are combining to help that total increase, as well. As far as the line goes, this one is a coin flip, to me. Both guys could blow, one might and the other could be decent, and there remains the off chance both starters pitch well. This is likely a pass.
Royals @ Tigers (-151) with a total of 9.5
Detroit's been hitting a little better on his homestand, picking on some bad teams, but I always like to start these notes with the reminder than the Royals tend to play pretty well in Motown. Davies, despite being 2-6 with a 5.40 ERA against the Tigers actually beat Porcello way back in April. Porcello is coming off an ugly effort against the Yankees, and he remains a bit of a question mark. The Tigers probably win this game, but the side is too high for me to back a poor starter, and the total is hinting at us that runs are going to be scored.
Athletics (-121) @ Indians with a total of 7.5
Gio Gonzalez remains very, very good at home, and pretty good on the road, and because of the A's recent slightly-above-average play combined with the Indians pitching fall-off, this line is about where it should be, in my opinion. Gonzalez, too, is a perfect 3-0 with a 1.16 ERA against the Indians, so he loves dominating these kids. Carmona, on the other side, has faced the A's twice this year, and pitched very well in Oakland, and decently at home. He's just 3-4 with a 5.56 ERA lifetime against the A's, but that's probably a tad misleading considering his better work in 2010. I'm not sure how you go against a guy that has completely owned his opponent, but Carmona gives us a good reason to be careful, that's for sure.
Mariners @ Red Sox (-216) with a total of 9
Inflated line, but we don't have the bankrolls to go dog-hunting at these prices.
Twins @ Rangers (-131) with a total of 9
I happen to think Pavano's 1-2, 9.00 lifetime mark against the Rangers is pretty misleading. It's a very small sample size, and this year he shut them down in a 7-inning, 2-run effort a few months back. Colby Lewis, meanwhile, is a somewhat unimpressive 0-2 with a 4.40 ERA against the Twins, so this one is sort of picking between a rotten egg and some moldy cabbage. To Lewis's credit, he did pitch well enough to win in Minnesota this year, but the Rangers just couldn't score. And lately, they haven't been hitting much. Texas is struggling, so it's awfully tough to back a favorite that isn't playing well, especially when the rather unlucky Lewis is on the hill. The Rangers have lost his last 6 straight starts, even though he's pitched pretty well in them. So, he doesn't win. Why back him?
Orioles @ White Sox (-186) with a total of 8
The price is too high, and the dog won't be a top play. I'm looking at the Under, if anything, but probably a full-on pass.
Rays @ Angels (-111) with a total of 8.5
Wade Davis hasn't started since August 5, as he's been dealing with some shoulder inflammation. How badly do we want to back a guy that might be fully healthy? The answer is not that badly. Davis might feel great, but when he gets on that mound, and then has to sit between innings for 10 minutes, things might tighten up a tad, and cortisone shots tend to run out after a few innings. I guess a lot of that is speculation, but I rarely like to back a pitcher that is coming back from a throwing arm issue. Santana, meanwhile, has been one of the few Angels getting it done. His career numbers aren't too great against the Rays (4-4, 5.17), but he's been pretty hot, as pitchers go, and if he can keep Carl Crawford off the bases, the Angels will have a shot, even with their spotty offense and shaky pen.
Tips and Trends
Florida Marlins at New York Mets
MARLINS: (-120, O/U 6.5) Florida is in a very similar situation to the Mets, as they are likely on the outside looking in with regards to the playoff chase. Florida is 62-61 SU this year, 10.5 games behind the National League East division lead. The Marlins +1.90 and -1.49 units both SU and on the RL overall this season. Florida has a relatively young core of players, so finishing the season strong is of great importance to them. Ace pitcher Josh Johnson will take the mound tonight, as he is 11-5 with an ERA of 2.27 and a WHIP of 1.06 this year. The Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a favorite. The Marlins are 2-7 in their last 9 games following a loss. Florida is 1-4 in their last 5 road games against a right-handed starter. The Marlins are 24-10 in Johnson's last 34 starts against the National League East. Florida is 38-18 in Johnson's last 56 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Marlins are 3-7 in Johnson's last 10 starts as a road favorite. Florida is 2-7 in Johnson's last 9 starts during game 1 of a series. The Marlins are 1-5 in Johnson's last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
Marlins are 7-1 last 8 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%.
Under is 6-0 in Marlins last 6 road games.
Key Injuries - C Ronny Paulino (suspension) is out.
Projected Score: 3 (UNDER-Total of the Day)
METS: New York has become resigned to the fact that they won't be in the playoffs this season. The Mets are 62-62 SU this year, including an impressive 36-22 SU at home. New York is -1.91 and +20.65 units both SU and on the RL respectively this year. The Mets offense has hit the Marlins pitching staff well of late, so it will be interesting to see how they do against one of the best in the game. Upstart R.A. Dickey will make the home start tonight, as he is 8-5 with an ERA of 2.41 and a WHIP of 1.16 this year. The Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games during game 1 of a series. New York is 11-4 in their last 15 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Mets are 10-4 in their last 14 games following an off day. New York is 16-35 in their last 51 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Mets are 2-5 in their last 7 games against the National League East. New York is 5-1 in Dickey's last 6 home starts against a team with a winning record. The Mets are 2-6 in Dickey's last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Mets are 10-3 last 13 games as a home underdog.
Under is 8-1 in Mets last 9 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Key Injuries - LF Jason Bay (concussion) is out.
Projected Score: 2
Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers
DODGERS: (-140, O/U 8.5) Los Angeles has fallen completely out of the National League playoff chase, as they are an astounding 12 games behind the National League West standings. The Dodgers have been brutal on offense, as they simply can't get their pitchers any run support. The Dodgers are 63-62 SU overall this year, including 24-35 SU on the road. Los Angeles is -10.32 and -10.47 units both SU and on the RL respectively this year. Pitcher Ted Lilly has been near unhittable since joining the Dodgers. Lilly is 7-8 this year, with an ERA of 3.23 and a WHIP of 1.03 overall this year. Lilly is a perfect 4-0 however since joining Los Angeles. The Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a loss. Los Angeles is 5-2 in their last 7 games against a team with a losing record. The Dodgers are 35-17 in their last 52 Tuesday games. Los Angeles is 3-8 in their last 11 games against a right-handed starter. The Dodgers are 1-6 in their last 7 games against the National League Central. The Dodgers are 4-0 in Lilly's last 4 starts overall.
Dodgers are 5-13 last 18 games following an off day.
Over is 6-1 last 7 games following an off day.
Key Injuries - SS Rafael Furcal (back) is out.
Projected Score: 3
BREWERS: Milwaukee has been playing better of late, a much needed sign for the Brewers faithful. The Brewers are easily one of the most talented teams in baseball, yet they can't get anything to show for it with regards to their record. Milwaukee is 59-65 SU this year, including 30-32 SU at home. The Brewers are -5.18 and -15.77 units both SU and on the RL overall this season. Pitcher Dave Bush will get the start tonight, as he is 6-10 with an ERA of 4.63 and a WHIP of 1.53 this season. The Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 home games against a left-handed starter. Milwaukee is 11-4 in their last 15 games as a home favorite. The Brewers are 7-3 in their last 10 games during game 1 of a series. Milwaukee is 18-42 in their last 60 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Brewers are 4-1 in Bush's last 5 starts with 6 days of rest. Milwaukee is 17-36 in Bush's last 53 starts as an underdog. The Brewers are 4-11 in Bush's last 15 starts against a team with a winning record. The Brewers are 0-4 in Bush's last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Brewers are 10-3 last 13 home games against a team with a losing road record.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games against the National League West.
Key Injuries - RF Corey Hart (hamstring) is probable.
Projected Score: 5 (SIDE of the Day)
Diamond Trends - Tuesday
By Vince Akins
Rays at Angels – The Rays are 0-8 since June 16, 2010 on the road after a win in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $845 when playing against.
Yankees at Blue Jays – The Yankees are 9-0 since April 06, 2010 on the road when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $990. The Blue Jays are 5-0 since June 19, 2010 after a one run win and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $575.
Dodgers at Brewers – The Dodgers are 0-6 since July 28, 2010 on the road when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Brewers are 0-8 since June 20, 2009 when David Bush starts as a dog after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $800 when playing against.
Reds at Giants – The Giants are 10-0 since May 29, 2010 as a favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1000.
Athletics at Indians – The Athletics are 5-0 since May 17, 2010 after a loss in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $544. The Indians are 0-10 since April 12, 2010 within 20 cents of pickem when they are off a loss in which they held the lead for a net profit of $1020 when playing against. The Indians are 6-0 since June 29, 2010 at home vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $715.
Marlins at Mets – The Mets are 6-0 since May 11, 2010 at home after a one run loss for a net profit of $735.
Cubs at Nationals – The Cubs are 0-9 since May 28, 2010 as a dog when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Cubs are 0-7 since May 04, 2010 on the road after a win in which they had 12+ hits for a net profit of $765 when playing against. The Nationals are 0-7 since June 02, 2010 after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $725 when playing against.
Diamondbacks at Padres – The Diamondbacks are 0-12 since May 25, 2010 on the road vs a divisional foe that is ahead of them in the divisional standings for a net profit of $1205 when playing against. The Padres are 7-0 since July 08, 2010 as a 140+ favorite after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $700.
Astros at Phillies – The Astros are 5-0 since May 13, 2010 when Bud Norris starts after more strike outs than hits allowed at home for a net profit of $850
Cardinals at Pirates – The Cardinals are 8-0 since April 29, 2010 when Adam Wainwright starts as a 140+ favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $800. The Pirates are 0-11 since June 07, 2010 as a dog after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $1100 when playing against.
Twins at Rangers – The Twins are 9-0 since July 11, 2010 on the road when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $980. The Rangers are 0-6 since August 03, 2010 when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $790 when playing against.
Mariners at Red Sox – The Red Sox are 9-0 since April 18, 2009 when Josh Beckett starts as a 200+ favorite for a net profit of $900. The Red Sox are 6-0 since May 20, 2010 after a win in which they drew 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $650.
Braves at Rockies – The Braves are 9-0 since May 18, 2010 after a one run loss and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $915. The Rockies are 8-0 since July 08, 2009 when Jorge De La Rosa starts at home after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $800.
Royals at Tigers – The Royals are 0-6 since June 20, 2010 vs a team that has won at least their last four games for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Tigers are 12-0 since May 01, 2010 as a home favorite when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit for a net profit of $1200.
Orioles at White Sox – The Orioles are 7-0 since July 29, 2010 and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $945. The White Sox are 6-0 since May 08, 2010 when they are off a game that was tied at the end of at least six separate innings for a net profit of $630.