NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (68-52) at L.A. Dodgers (70-49)
Chad Billingsley (11-6, 3.73 ERA) is scheduled to return to the mound for the first time in 11 days when he leads the slumping Dodgers against the streaking Cardinals, who turn to rookie Mitchell Boggs (1-1, 3.76) in the middle game of a four-game series at Dodger Stadium.
Behind another stellar pitching performance by Chris Carpenter, the Cardinals outlasted Los Angeles 3-2 on Monday for their fifth straight win and their ninth in the last 10 games. St. Louis is on additional upticks of 4-0 on the road, 8-1 against the N.L. West, 6-1 against right-handed starters and 5-1 with Boggs on the mound, but it has lost seven of 10 as underdog.
The Dodgers have lost four of five and seven out of 10 overall, including five straight home defeats. Joe Torre’s troops are also in ruts of 2-6 against the N.L. Central, 4-11 in the second game of a series and 2-6 versus right-handed starters, but they have won 16 of 21 on Tuesday and they’re 60-26 in their last 80 games when favored at Dodger Stadium.
St. Louis continues to own this rivalry, having won 38 of the last 55 meetings overall, including nine of the last 12 in Los Angeles. This year, the Cards are 3-1 against L.A.
Boggs is coming off a 5-4 home loss to Cincinnati a week ago, allowing four runs on nine hits and four walks in six innings. It was the first time in the right-hander’s six starts this season that St. Louis lost. However, the Redbirds are 4-1 in Boggs’ last five road starts, including 2-0 this year, with Boggs posting a 4.38 ERA. The Georgia native has never faced the Dodgers.
Billingsley has been sidelined with a hamstring injury since Aug. 7, when he allowed two runs (one earned) on four hits in six innings, getting a no-decision in L.A.’s 9-5, 12-inning loss. The Dodgers’ ace is 2-2 with a 6.14 ERA in his last six starts, including a 10-0 loss in St. Louis in which he yielded six runs on four hits and six walks in 5 2/3 innings.
Billingsley is 7-4 with a 3.86 ERA in 12 home outings this year, but he’s 0-2 with a 4.76 ERA in five career appearances (four starts) against the Cardinals, with Los Angeles losing all four starts.
For the Cardinals, the “over” is on runs of 6-3-3 overall, 5-1-2 on the road and 4-1-1 on Tuesday. Likewise, Los Angeles is in the midst of “over” stretches of 9-4-1 at home, 4-0 on Tuesday, 6-0-1 with Billingsley on the bump, 7-3-2 when Billingsley pitches at home, 7-2-1 when he faces the N.L. Central and 5-1-2 when he starts on Tuesday. Conversely, the under has been the play in five of the last six meetings between these clubs.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Seattle (61-57) at Detroit (62-55)
The Mariners send ace Felix Hernandez (12-4, 2.72 ERA) to the mound as they return to Comerica Park for the second time in less than a month to battle the Tigers, who are set to counter with Rick Porcello (10-7, 4.34).
Seattle salvaged a four-game home series against the Yankees with Sunday’s 10-3 rout, as the team split its 10-game homestand, going just 2-4 in the last six. Since leaving Detroit with a pair of 2-1 victories on July 22 and 23, the Mariners are just 10-13 overall (3-4 on the road), and they’ve also lost 10 of their last 14 games on Tuesday. On the positive end, they’re on hot streaks of 21-7 as a favorite and 10-1 as a road chalk.
Detroit had a three-game winning streak snapped with Sunday’s 3-2, 10-inning home loss to Kansas City. Jim Leyland’s team continues to be very inconsistent, as it hasn’t won more than three in a row or lost more than three in a row since a seven-game winning streak in late June. The Tigers enter this contest with trends of 41-20 at Comerica, 18-5 at home against right-handed starters and 6-2 after a loss, but 29-65 as an underdog and 7-15 on Tuesday.
These clubs have split their six meetings this season, with the visitor winning four times. Prior to winning twice last month at Comerica Park, the Mariners had lost seven of eight in Motown.
Hernandez’s stellar season continued on Wednesday against the White Sox, as he pitched seven scoreless innings and struck out 10, but he failed to earn a decision as the Mariners eventually won 1-0 in 14 innings. Going back to May 24, the right-hander has notched 14 quality starts in his last 15 trips to the mound, giving up two earned runs or fewer in 12 of those 15 games.
With Hernandez on the bump, the Mariners are on a slew of positive runs, including 18-6 this season, 11-2 on the road this year (8-0 last eight), 7-2 against the A.L. Central, 9-1 as a favorite and 6-0 as a road favorite. In his 13 starts on the highway, King Felix is 8-1 with a 1.96 ERA, including a 2-1 win at Detroit on July 22. In fact, he’s won five straight starts against the Tigers (2-0 this year), posting a 1.80 in the last three.
Porcello is coming off a five-game suspension after hitting Boston’s Kevin Youkilis with a pitch on Aug. 11 that led to a brawl at Fenway Park. He was charged with one run on one hit in one inning in that game, which Detroit lost 7-5. In two previous starts, the right-hander gave up three total runs in 13 2/3 innings (2.03 ERA), with the Tigers winning 4-3 at Cleveland and 7-3 at home against Baltimore.
Detroit is 12-5 in Porcello’s last 17 outings, 4-1 in his last five at home and 4-1 in his last five versus the A.L. West, but it has lost four of his last five in the underdog role. Porcello is 5-3 with a 4.92 ERA in 10 home games this season, and he’s faced the Mariners twice in 2009, allowing one run in seven innings of an 8-2 road win on April 19, then giving up five runs in five innings at home on July 21, though Detroit still prevailed 9-7.
With Hernandez pitching, the “under” is on runs of 10-4 overall, 35-16-1 on the highway, 14-3 as a road chalk and 4-0 against the A.L. Central. But as a team, the Mariners are on “over” streaks of 9-4 overall, 4-1 on the road, 6-1 against right-handed starters, 6-2 against the A.L. Central and 5-2 on Tuesday.
Detroit carries “over” trends of 11-4 overall, 5-2 at home, 5-2 after an off day, 4-0-1 on Tuesday and 4-1 in series openers. Finally, these teams have hurdled the total in 10 of their last 13 clashes at Comerica Park, though the last two battles a month ago – both 2-1 Seattle wins – stayed way under the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SEATTLE and OVER
GAMETIMEPICKS.COM
Tuesday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Ubaldo Jimenez (Colorado Rockies)
The right-hander has been outstanding since the All-Star break, going 4-0 in six starts while eating up innings for manager Jim Tracy.
"I didn't start too well, but now I'm very confident," Jimenez told the team's web site. "I know that I can go out there and throw six, seven or eight innings every time I get the ball."
Working as a favorite each time, Jimenez has allowed just 26 hits in 42 2-3 innings, posting a 2.55 ERA with 39 strikeouts.
Although he continues to battle control issues, Jimenez did not walk a batter for just the second time this season Aug. 1 at Cincinnati.
David Price (Tampa Bay Rays)
The southpaw has been erratic this season but much more stable at home.
Price has won his last four starts at Tropicana Field, lasting at least six innings and allowing no more than two earned runs in each. He has not lost at home since June 23 vs. Philadelphia.
In that span, Price has an ERA of 1.78 and a WHIP (walks + hits per inning) of 1.07, winning three times as a favorite.
Derek Lowe (Atlanta Braves)
The veteran righty also is gobbling up innings, working at least six in his last seven starts, allowing no more than three earned runs and going 6-1 in that span.
In his last outing, Lowe pitched seven innings for the first time since June 9 vs. Pittsburgh.
This will be Lowe's third start against the New York Mets. He is 2-0 against them, allowing just eight hits in 12 2-3 innings.
Returning
Freddy Garcia (Chicago White Sox)
The veteran hurler will be trying to recapture some of his old magic. His old team sure hopes so.
Garcia was released from the Mets' minor league system in April and was signed by the White Sox to a minor league deal in June.
He was 0-3 with a 6.35 ERA at Triple-A Charlotte.
Garcia has won 118 career games, including 17 for the White Sox in 2006. But he was traded after that season and is just 2-6 since.
Slumping
Craig Stammen (Washington Nationals)
It's hard to believe the Nationals won eight straight games with Stammen taking his regular turn in the rotation. Then again, he did pitch only once during the streak.
The righty is fortunate to be just 0-1 with three no-decisions in his last four starts. During that stretch, he has gotten through five innings just once and compiled a 10.56 ERA.
In his last four starts, Stammen has a WHIP of 2.02. He has six strikeouts while allowing five homers.
Manny Parra (Milwaukee Brewers)
Parra has been living a charmed life lately. He has won his last four outings without making a quality start.
It's hard to say Parra is slumping based on his results. But a closer look shows that he has allowed a whopping 38 hits in 25 innings in that stretch. Throw in 10 walks and Parra has an ERA of 6.48 and a WHIP of 1.92. Does that sound like a pitcher on a four-game winning streak?
Receiving 37 runs of support never hurts, although the right-hander has gotten past the sixth inning just once.
Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
Tuesday, Aug. 18
Arizona at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EDT). Pedro Martinez (1-0, 5.40 ERA) makes his second start for the NL East-leading Phillies when he faces the Diamondbacks and Jon Garland (6-10, 4.28).
STARS
Monday
-Kyle Blanks, Padres, hit a three-run homer with two outs in the bottom of ninth to lift San Diego to a 4-1 win over the Chicago Cubs.
-Vladimir Guerrero, Angels, hit two homers and had five RBIs to help Los Angeles beat Baltimore 8-5.
-Brett Tomko, Athletics, pitched five scoreless innings to beat New York less than a month after being released by the Yankees, winning his debut with Oakland 3-0.
-Aaron Rowand, Giants, homered and had four hits, and San Francisco beat the New York Mets 10-1 to split the four-game series.
-Chris Carpenter, Cardinals, pitched eight innings of five-hit ball in St. Louis' 3-2 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers.
SIGNINGS
Stephen Strasburg and the Washington Nationals agreed to a record contract just before Monday's midnight deadline, a four-year deal that will pay the hard-throwing right-hander slightly more than $15.1 million. Strasburg was among 16 of 32 first-round picks without announced agreements heading into the final day. Only three first-round picks failed to sign, and the deadline didn't apply to one of them.
SWAP
The Detroit Tigers bolstered their offense for a pennant drive by obtaining first baseman Aubrey Huff from the Baltimore Orioles for a minor leaguer. Huff is batting .253 with 13 homers and 72 RBIs. The 32-year-old Huff recently hit his 200th career homer and should fit in nicely in a Detroit lineup that ranks 11th in the AL in runs and seventh in home runs.
SIDELINED
San Diego Padres right-hander Chris Young had arthroscopic surgery on his pitching shoulder and will miss the rest of the season. Young, out since mid-June with shoulder inflammation, had partial tears in his labrum repaired during Monday's surgery. Young was 5-6 with a 5.21 ERA. He is expected to be ready for spring training.
RECOVERING
Right-hander Hiroki Kuroda will miss his next scheduled start for the Los Angeles Dodgers while recovering from a mild concussion. The Dodgers were quite optimistic about Kuroda's prospects for a quick, full recovery after the 34-year-old Japanese pitcher participated in a range of tests after the club returned to Dodger Stadium on Monday, two days after Rusty Ryal's line drive hit Kuroda in the head during the sixth inning of a game in Arizona. Trainer Stan Conte says the Dodgers are pleased by his progress.
RETURNS
Cubs left-hander Ted Lilly returned from almost a month on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation. He allowed four singles in six scoreless innings, struck out four and walked one in the Cubs' 4-1 loss to the Padres. Lilly was on a pitch count of 85-90 and ended up throwing 70.
SPEAKING
"11:58 and 43 seconds. People thought it would take to the last minute. We didn't even need that last minute.'' - Nationals president Stan Kasten after the team worked out a record deal with top draft choice Stephen Strasburg without much time to spare before the midnight deadline.
Home Dog Bites
By SportsPic
The San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs square off in game-two of a three game set at PETCO Park. Basement dwelling Padres taking the first in the series 4-1 look primed for their 6th straight win over Cubbies at home. Ryan Dempster tagged for 26 runs the past six on the mound giving the righty a 1.59 WHIP, 14.32 ABRA, 13.10 BOR over the span opens the door for Friars to do damage. Starters who can't get guys out (Batter-Out-Rating) naturally leads to more men on base (Avg-Base-Runners-Allowed) thus making it easier for the opposition to score runs. Road favorites with a starter producing a low BOR (12) are 86-179 including 4-12 when highway faves of -$1.50 or more. Consider Padres knowing Cubbies are 2-12 the past fourteen on the road with Dempster, 1-8 last nine away vs the N.L. West opponents.
Tuesday's Hot and Cold Pitching Report
By: Freddy Willis
A look at the hot and cold pitchers going today. The information you need to know whether it is for fantasy baseball or wagering contests. Tuesday's Hot and Cold pitchers features 4 hot pitchers and 6 cold pitchers so make sure you check out who is hot and who is not!
Probable Hot Starting Pitchers
Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies)
Ubaldo has been getting it done all season and has easily been flying under the radar. He is owned in just 65.5% of the fantasy baseball leagues on ESPN so you know many are still doubting these pitchers from Colorado. Jimenez is just 25 years old and has given up just 8HR all season long and carries a 3.47 ERA with a 10-9 record. He has been no better than in his last 5 starts where he has a 3-0 record and a 2.27 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP. He will be going up against one of the National League's worst teams in the Washington Nationals. He will face up against Craig Stammen who caries a 1-1 record with a 7.54 ERA in his last 5 starts. Live sports odds have Jimenez and the Rockies as a -160 favorites and I would be shocked if I did not see this line continue to rise as Jimenez has been very solid on the road and at night with 3.60 ERA on the road and a 2.93 ERA at night this year. Now do not get carried away by the above statements as the Nationals do have an outstanding .292 average collectively against Jimenez but I still give him the best chance to win here on Tuesday of all the hot pitchers as the Nationals struggled in their first two appearances against Jimenez and have yet to see him this year. The Nationals have scored only 3.70 runs per 9 innings vs. RHP in their last 5 with a .234 average. Note both pitchers are on 5 days rest and the Rockies are a horrid 4-13 in their last 17 games with Jimenez on 5 days rest while the Nationals are 0-5 with Stammen on 5 days rest. I still must go with the Rockies here.
Derek Lowe (Braves)
Okay, Tim Lincecum really was the deserving one in the #1 spot, but we don't even put him in at two because we want this article to benefit its readers. If you don't know by now that Lincecum is going to throw a great game well you probably are not reading this article to begin with. Back here with Lowe as he finally has started to turn it around with a 4-0 record and a 2.87 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP that suggests that ERA should be slightly higher. Lowe has been much better pitching at home and pitching at night. If he only had to pitch at night he would be having a great season as opposed to a good season. He is 12-7 and lucky to be with a 4.08 ERA. He will be making a road start though where he has not pitched well against the Mets, a team wishing they had picked him up in free agency instead of the pitcher that Lowe will be facing on Tuesday in Oliver Perez. Perez has pitched well though since returning to the Mets but has yet been able to pick up a victory with a 3.58 ERA in his last 5 starts. Lowe has not been incredible but decent against the Mets this year with 12.2 IP 10H 5BB and 5 ER in 2 GS. However, in his third meeting with the Mets this year he will face a lineup that is severely weakened now with Wright likely out for the season with a concussion. I like the Braves as a free mlb pick, however they did have to travel and Oliver Perez has been pitching well you might be better off laying off completely.
Notables - Last 5 Starts!
* Tim Lincecum (2-1, 0.96 WHIP, 1.91 ERA) * Josh Beckett (3-1, 0.97 WHIP, 2.25 ERA) Most likely to sustain and win: Ubaldo Jimenez Probable Cold Starting Pitchers: Homer Bailey (Reds)Bailey left his last start against the Cardinals with a foot injury, but little did he know it was a blessing in disguise as he gave up 2 ER on 3 hits without recording an out. The Bailey experiment may just be about over as he has just been dreadful and has just 3 quality starts out of 10 this season. Bailey has a 1.94 WHIP and a 9.53 ERA in his last three starts and faces the Gaints who have hit him hard this season in 1 start against the Giants he has 6IP giving up 9 hits 5 ER 1 BB 2HR while striking out only two. Again this is a tough spot for Bailey and he has not looked good in a while. Going up against Lincecum makes it awfully hard not to take the Giants on the run line here. Notables - Last 5 Starts! * Craig Stammen (1-1, 1.54 WHIP, 7.54 ERA) * Jason Berken (1.77 WHIP, 7.03 ERA) * Fausto Carmona (0-3, 1.91 WHIP, 6.26 ERA) * Gil Meche (1-3, 1.86 WHIP, 6.39 ERA) * Vin Mazzaro (2-2, 2.22 WHIP, 8.42 ERA) Most likely to rebound: Gil Meche
Aces hit the road
By Brobury Sports
Four of the best pitchers in baseball hit the road tonight, three of them facing rookies.
Felix Hernandez (Seattle) at Detroit – 7:05 pm ET
Hernandez and Seattle are -130 favorites starting a three-game series.
Hernandez (12-4, 2.72 ERA) has surprisingly been much better on the road (1.97 ERA) than at home (3.67 ERA). One of those road efforts was at Detroit in July where he gave up one run in seven innings for the win. Seattle is 16-5 in his last 21 road starts against teams with winning records.
Opposing hurler Rick Porcello (10-7, 4.34 ERA) has pitched well overall and he’s making his first start since being ejected in the second inning after hitting Boston’s Kevin Youkilis and getting into a brawl. It will be interesting to see how the 20 year-old rookie responds.
Josh Beckett (Boston) at Toronto – 7:07 pm ET
Beckett and Boston are -161 favorites as they open up a three games series.
Beckett (14-4, 3.10 ERA) is keeping the team afloat along with fellow starter Jon Lester. Beckett’s ERA is under a run in three starts this month, although his road ERA overall is a reasonable 3.59 compared to 2.58 at Fenway.
The key stat here is Boston is just 2-7 in Beckett’s last nine starts against Toronto although this is his first meeting against them this year. Toronto’s Ricky Romero (10-5, 3.70 ERA) is the opposition and the rookie has shined although he’s struggled in his two Boston starts (9.72 ERA), both at home.
Tim Lincecum (San Francisco) at Cincinnati – 7:10 pm ET
Lincecum and the Giants are -240 favorites as they begin a three games series.
Lincecum (12-3, 2.19 ERA) has made his last four starts at home, having last been on the road on July 22nd at Atlanta. His ERA is a bit higher on the road at 2.46 but is still excellent overall.
Note that Lincecum is pitching with an extra day of rest which is always important this time of year, especially for someone who is 170 pounds soaking wet. His opposing pitcher is Homer Bailey (2-4, 7.48 ERA) who left in the first inning of his last start after getting hit with a line drive. This is a big mismatch on paper and thus the -240 odds.
C.C. Sabathia (NY Yankees) at Oakland – 10:05 pm ET
Sabathia and the Yankees are -240 favorites after dropping the opener last night, 3-0.
Sabathia (13-7, 3.64 ERA) has helped the Yanks surge to the top of the AL East, winning five of his last six starts. He pitched great in his last road outing at Seattle, giving up one run in eight innings, but his three road starts before that was a 6.98 ERA.
Vin Mazzaro is another rookie facing an ace and he is 4-8 with a 5.54 ERA. He won his last two starts (both on the road), going five innings in one and 5 1/3 in the other, but before that the A’s lost nine of his last 10 starts.
Dodgers, Cards meet again
By Sportsbook.com
Last night’s St. Louis and Los Angeles contest had all the drama and intensity of a playoff game, with the Cardinals coming out on top 3-2 as -160 money line road favorites behind Chris Carpenter. This evening, the roles will be reversed, with the Dodgers the larger favorite and trying to find the magic formula that worked earlier this season. Early numbers show nearly 70% of bettors at Sportsbook.com are backing the host favorites.
The Dodgers (70-49, +11.2 units) have lost seven of 10 games, seeing their lead in the NL West dwindle to 4.5-games and now have the same amount of losses as Philadelphia in the National League, jeopardizing their hold of the best record in the senior circuit.
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Take away the two nine run explosions that resulted in victories and L.A. has totaled 20 runs in the other eight games (2.5 runs per outing). Matters have been made worse with the starting pitchers being mildly ineffective and injuries creeping up.
Tonight’s starter, Chad Billingsley (11-6, 3.73 ERA) hasn’t pitched in 11 days due to left hamstring strain and will have to be watched cautiously. Billingsley hasn’t had much success against St. Louis with 0-2 record, with a 5.23 ERA in four starts, including being rocked for six runs and walking six in 5 2/3 innings of a 10-0 Redbirds whitewashing. The Dodgers have lost Billingsley’s last four home starts against teams with winning record.
St. Louis (68-52, +6.2 units) is making all those trade deadline pickups work and has won nine of its last 10 contests. Manager Tony LaRussa’s offense has been improved with Matt Holliday and Mark DeRosa, however the pitching has been brilliant in allowing just over three runs per game during this stretch.
It was evident in last night’s contest that the confidence the Cardinals are playing with and tonight’s starter Mitchell Boggs (1-1, 3.78) has given the Cards a chance to win. Though he was roughed up in suffering his first loss of the season last week against Cincinnati, the 25-year old right-hander has kept his team in the game and they have won five of his six starts in 2009. Boggs would become a permanent part of the rotation, but as has been the case in the past, 20 walks in just over 33 innings has made him less than trustworthy.
The Dodgers are 12-3 avenging a one run loss this season and sports bettors have moved them from -160 money line favorites at Sportsbook.com to -180, with the total Un8.5. L.A. has won 60 of last 86 games as a home favorite and is 12-4 OVER after allowing four runs or less in four straight games this season.
St. Louis is a decided underdog, yet is 14-3 on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 and has the same record when they have an on-base percentage of .375 or better over their last five games this season.
This battle of division leaders is set for 7:10 Pacific and is available for viewing in local markets with the Cards 16-6 UNDER after a win by two runs or less this season.