Tuesday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies (12-8, 2.21 ERA)
The Doctor was operating in his last two outings, giving up only one run on 11 hits in 17 combined innings of work. Halladay’s most recent outing was a one-run, six-hit showing which also marked his eighth complete game of the season. The last time he was in Florida, Halladay made magic with a perfect game against the Florida Marlins on May 29.
Mat Latos, San Diego Padres (11-4, 2.45 ERA)
The Padres’ budding ace hasn’t lost a start since June 4 and is 6-0 in his eight starts since that defeat. Latos was dealt a no-decision in his most recent trip to the hill, going five innings while allowing only one earned run on two hits but threw 98 pitches and walked three batters. He hasn’t given up more than three runs in a single start since suffering his last loss and owns a 2-0 record and 1.50 ERA in his last three starts.
Slumping
Paul Maholm, Pittsburgh Pirates (6-9, 4.52 ERA)
The Bucs’ lefty has stumbled in his last two starts, lasting just over 11 innings while giving up 12 hits on 20 combined hits. Maholm went 5 1-3 innings against the Colorado Rockies last Thursday, getting rocked for eight runs on 11 hits. It was the third time in the past seven starts he has failed to pitch into the sixth inning. He is 4-6 with an ERA just south of 5.00 at home this season.
Debuting
Sean West, Florida Marlins (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
The Fish send pitching prospect Sean West to the mound to face Roy Halladay and the Phillies. West made 20 starts for the Marlins in 2009, posting an 8-6 record with a 4.79 ERA. This year, he’s spent his time with Triple-A New Orleans, putting up a 4-3 mark with a 4.12 minor-league ERA. He made one start against Philadelphia last season, allowing two earned runs on seven hits in just four innings of work. He did, however, throw 93 pitches in those four innings.
Tuesday MLB Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Tuesday baseball card has plenty of mismatches, but there also key battles within each league's playoff race. Four series involve teams with a 15-game difference in victories, including the Reds battling the Pirates and the Rangers taking on the Mariners. The NL West has two key matchups, as the Rockies and Giants meet up at Coors Field, while the Dodgers try heat up their bats against the Padres. We'll start inside the NL East with two clubs looking to climb the ladder the Wild Card standings.
Phillies at Marlins - 7:10 PM EST
Florida returns home off a 4-3 West Coast swing that included a pair of one-run losses. The Marlins are still hanging around the NL Wild Card race, along with the Phillies, who have won nine of 11. The man that tossed one of the league's two perfect games this season will try to duplicate that feat when he takes the mound again at Sun Life Stadium.
The last time Roy Halladay (12-8, 2.21 ERA) toed the rubber in South Florida, he retired all 27 batters in a 1-0 victory on May 29. Halladay has dominated the Marlins in three starts this season, allowing 14 hits and three earned runs in 25 innings (2-1). The former Cy Young Award winner bounced back following a shaky start at Chicago by limiting the Rockies and Diamondbacks to just one run in two easy wins. Since the perfect game, the Phillies are 0-3 in Halladay's last three starts on the highway.
The Marlins send out southpaw Sean West (NR), who is making 2010 debut after 11 starts at Triple-A New Orleans. West made 20 starts with the Fish last season, compiling an 8-6 mark with an ERA of 4.79. The Marlins won seven of West's 10 home outings last season, including a 7-1 mark the final eight contests.
Philadelphia and Florida have split eight meetings this season with the road team taking five matchups. The 'under' has been the play between these clubs, cashing six times, including all three at Sun Life Stadium.
Braves at Mets - 7:10 PM EST
Atlanta has a great opportunity to open up the gap in the NL East as it continues a three-game series against New York. The Braves own a 2 ½-game edge over the Phillies and a 6 ½-game lead over both the Mets and Marlines in the division race entering Monday's action. Bobby Cox's team has the fewest home losses of any team in baseball with 13, but the Braves are just 4-4 the last eight games at Turner Field.
Derek Lowe (10-9, 4.58 ERA) has clearly been more effective at home than on the road, as the Braves are 7-3 in his 10 home starts, compared to a 4-8 mark away from Turner. One of Lowe's biggest issues has been his lack of going deep into starts, failing to go past the sixth inning in four of his last five outings. Atlanta is 1-6 his previous seven starts, but five of those outings came on the highway. The Braves are 0-2 in Lowe's two starts against the Mets this season, with Atlanta scoring two runs in those games.
The Mets counter with R.A. Dickey (7-4, 2.32 ERA), who snapped a six-start winless streak with a flawless effort in a 4-0 victory over the Cardinals. The knuckleballer scattered four hits in 8.1 scoreless innings of work, Dickey's fifth straight outing that has finished 'under' the total. The last time Dickey faced the Braves, he allowed nine hits and 6.2 innings, but back-to-back homers by Melky Cabrera and Omar Infante broke a 2-2 tie, resulting in a 4-2 setback.
New York is 5-3 this season against Atlanta, while the 'under' has cashed in all eight meetings. The Braves are 5-2 the last seven home meetings with the Mets dating back to last July, while Atlanta owns a 23-11 record in Game 2's of a series this season.
Twins at Rays - 7:10 PM EST
Minnesota is playing its baseball of the season, even though the Twins have cleaned up against some of the American League's bottom-feeders with wins in 10 of the last 11 games. The Rays, meanwhile, are riding a 6-1 run against the Yankees and Tigers at home. Tampa Bay's pitching has lifted them during this stretch, holding opponents to four runs or less in 10 of the past 11 games.
Jeff Niemann (9-3, 3.08 ERA) has hit a bump in the road despite Tampa Bay's 3-1 mark his last four starts. Niemann allowed eight hits and four earned runs in six innings of a 7-4 home win over the Tigers, his fourth straight non-quality outing. Despite his recent struggles, Tampa Bay is a sterling 16-5 in his 21 starts, including a 7-4 mark at Tropicana Field. Niemann has fared well against the Twins in his short career, beating Minnesota twice on the road, as the Rays pulled off a 5-4 win at Target Field on July 1.
Southpaw Brian Duensing (4-1, 1.83 ERA) picked up his first win as a starter with a 6-4 victory at Kansas City. Duensing hasn't faced the stiffest of competition with starts against the Orioles and Royals, as the Minnesota left-hander sees Tampa Bay for the first time in his career as a starter. When these teams met at Target Field in early July, Duensing tossed 1.2 innings of scoreless baseball in relief, scattering two hits in three appearances.
Tampa Bay grabbed three of four at Minnesota last month, while the Rays are 4-2 the last six meetings at Tropicana Field. Despite Minnesota's problems on the road this season, the Twins have won seven of their last eight on the highway.
vegasinsider.com
MLB RoundUp For 8/3
By Dan Bebe
National League
Reds (-155) @ Pirates with a total of 8.5
Here's a game where, looking back on the season at hand, the notes leading up to this one don't look the way you'd expect. Leake has started against the Pirates twice, has pitched pretty well in each start, and the Reds have lost each by a run (though Leake drew no decisions in both). Maholm has faced the Reds twice, and he, too, has pitched extremely well, beating Leake on May 25, and Bronson Arroyo back in April. There's a reason this line seems somewhat affordable to the Reds-betting public, and that's because a Reds win is, by no means, guaranteed.
Mets @ Braves (-134) with a total of 8
Lifetime numbers don't look too impressive, but this year hasn't been bad for each starter against the other team. Dickey is 0-1 with a 7.45 ERA lifetime against the Braves, but in his one start this year, allowed 3 earned runs in 6.2 innings - not great, but certainly not terrible. Derek Lowe is 3-5 with a 6.61 ERA against the Mets, lifetime, but this year has faced them twice, and had a 7 innings, 3-run effort, and a 5.1-inning, 2-run showing more recently. Lowe does appear to be trending down right now, and we know how streaky he can be, while Dickey just keeps putting up strong outings with that high-speed knuckler. The Mets road issues and the Braves strong play at home probably keeps the Mets from being a big play, but it's got to be New York or nothing on the side.
Phillies (-210) @ Marlins with a total of 7.5
The Phillies are definitely fighting the injury bug, but the Marlins coming back from a West coast swing makes them a less succulent underdog. This one is out of our price range.
Brewers @ Cubs (-125) with a total of N/A
Another rookie making his Major League debut at home, which means we're going to start with that home kid and see if we can talk ourselves out of it. Narveson is certainly not going to get our attention - he's been pretty bad all year, aside from a dominating start against the Mariners, who might very well be the worst offense in the Bigs. Outside of that, Narveson seems to find a way to give up 3-5 runs every start, so the question is how the kid, a righthander, will do against a Brewers team that, after starting the post-Break schedule with some wins, has gone back to getting its butt kicked.
Astros @ Cardinals (-240) with a total of 8.5
Some of the magic may have left young Bud Norris, who lost his last start to the Cards. Still, in terms of value, it's hard to argue with a guy that's 4-1 with a 1.60 ERA against one particular team, and has an ERA of 5.63 against the League.
Giants @ Rockies (-125) with a total of 9
This one has the potential be a little ugly. Sanchez is 2-4 with a 6.75 ERA against the Rockies, including a 4.2-inning start this year where he gave up 3 runs, but walked 5. Aaron Cook has faced the Giants twice this season, giving up 5 runs in 6 innings in San Francisco, and, somehow, just 3 runs in 7 innings of a win here in Colorado. Neither pitcher has really dominated the other team in recent history, though the Rockies are really slugging at home right now, and Cook seems to actually be more comfortable throwing in Colorado, in general. That being said, Cook is not very good, and the Giants have been hitting much better, of late. How will Coors impact all this?
Nationals @ D'backs (-125) with a total of 9.5
Saunders had a nice first start in the National League, and we know how streaky he can be, so I'm expecting another decent performance here, against a weaker-hitting team than the one he faced last time, the Phils. You never know about that D'backs pen, but I think Saunders will be okay. Olsen has actually been pretty good this year, though he's still working his way back from injury, and that 2nd start back has been a little bit of a question mark for some starters who, maybe, get a little overamped for the first one. Olsen is 0-2 with an 8.86 ERA against Arizona in his career, but he's a better pitcher now than he was the last time he saw the D'backs. Adam LaRoche does hit him awfully hard, though. When it all shakes out, I'm not sure we're getting that great of a line, laying this kind of price on Saunders, but I also wouldn't trust the 3rd worst road team in the NL this far from home.
Padres (-115) @ Dodgers with a total of 6.5
Another debut, though this time it's the old goat. And he'll be taking on one of the best young hurlers in the League. Latos went just 5 innings against the Dodgers when he faced them a week ago, but his Padres did just enough to win the game. He hasn't been all that impressive against the Dodgers, but right now, LA just isn't hitting, and I couldn't advocate backing the Dodgers anymore, at least not until the bats start to wake back up. I would say the Under has some legs, but at 6.5, most of the value has been sucked out. We all know Lilly never seems to get any run support, and to be frank, those Padres just keep finding ways to win. The Dodgers might be the sharp side, just because they're so cheap at home, but if you only score 1-2 runs per game, how do you win against the best bullpen out there?
American League
White Sox @ Tigers Doubleheader;
R. Porcello vs. M. Buerhle (gm1);
J. Bonderman vs. C. Torres;
Just bear in mind, I very rarely bet doubleheaders because of the bullpens being managed differently and the weird lineups, but remember how well the White Sox tend to play at Comerica Park. Just please, remember that.
Angels @ Orioles (-119) with a total of 9.5
Wait, what? The Orioles are favored over the Angels? This is all kinds of nuts. The Angels just beat Cliff Lee on Sunday, and now they go on the road to take on Jeremy Guthrie and the Orioles, and they're the listed underdog? This is either the gift line of the century or Trevor Bell is going to get absolutely lit up, and I tend to doubt that the oddsmakers would make this large of a mistake in favor of a fairly public team like the Angels. Guthrie is 1-2 with a 5.25 ERA against LA, too, so it's not like his numbers are staggeringly good - quite the opposite. He is on a nice little run, though, of 3 straight strong outings, so maybe oddsmakers are expecting good things. Still, it's telling that Guthrie hasn't been a listed favorite since June 27, a home start against Luis Atilano of the Nationals. He's been a listed favorite just 3 times all year, and the O's are 2-1 in those starts. This line is a head-scratcher, thoughts welcome.
Blue Jays @ Yankees (-140) with a total of 9.5
I said it last time, and I'll say it again, the best time to bet on the Yankees is when they toss some scrub out there to get the game going, when the name on the mound isn't going to pump extra money into an already-inflated team. Moseley is just that guy, tossing 6 solid innings on the road in Cleveland. Now, the opponent, this time, is helping keep the line somewhat within reason, and that's Ricky Romero, who has been very up-and-down against the Yankees. He went 8 innings of 2-run ball at home, then came here, to the New York, and got pasted for 8 runs in under 3 innings of work. He's gone 7 innings in 3 straight starts, so he's on a nice little push, but those numbers against the Yankees make him a tough bet.
Indians @ Red Sox (-250) with a total of 9.5
This one falls comfortably in our "out of price, out of mind" category. No thanks!
Twins @ Rays (-145) with a total of 8.5
The line in this one gives you an indication of how well though of Carl Pavano has become, since he was basically a Pick, yesterday against a Rays rookie, and now Niemann is laying a buck-45 against the hottest-hitting team since the All Star Break. Duensing's been just fine since moving into the starting rotation, and Niemann is one of those guys that just gets it done almost every time. I'd be more inclined to look at the total, in this one, since the Twins are likely to be a little shocked, playing against a team that can pitch, for once. Still, I think this series is a tougher one to handicap than most folks anticipate. The Twins have been so hot, and the Rays have been playing extremely well, so which gives first?
Royals @ Athletics (-180) with a total of 8
I just wonder how Mazzaro has a 2-0 record against the Royals already, with so few games under his belt. I suppose that's all part of pitching against Kansas City - winning. In any case, this line is awfully high, and effectively out of our price range, since I'm not seeing anything I particularly like about the Royals, here.
Rangers (-155) @ Mariners with a total of 7
Colby Lewis has just OWNED the Mariners this year. 3 starts, 23 innings, 2 runs, 2-0 with a no-decision, 18 strikeouts, 12 hits. It's tough, they say, to clobber the same team repeatedly in one season, since the batters start to learn the pitchers' tendencies, but it seems like a child could sneak a tennis ball past the Mariners. That team just cannot hit, and Lewis has the team figured out. Texas can hit, and while Vargas has been a bright spot for a completely lost Mariners season, he struggled against the Rangers a few months back, and is 0-2 with a 6.16 ERA against them, overall. It's tough to hit in Safeco, but motivation is a huge factor in this inflated line, and I might buy into it.
Diamond Trends - Tuesday
By Vince Akins
Royals at Athletics – The Royals are 7-0 since August 11, 2009 when Kyle Davies starts on the road after his team won the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $1065. The Athletics are 4-0 since July 28, 2009 when Vin Mazzaro starts after he had a WHIP of at least 2 his last start for a net profit of $554.
Mets at Braves – The Blue Jays are 0-6 since September 19, 2009 when Ricky Romero starts on the road after facing 30 or more hitters for a net profit of $655 when playing against. The Braves are 9-0 since September 15, 2009 as a home favorite when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $900. The Braves are 0-7 since May 15, 2010 as a favorite when they are off a win in which they scored in at most two separate innings and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1050 when playing against.
Astros at Cardinals – The Cardinals are 6-0 since July 04, 2010 as a favorite vs a divisional foe that is behind them in the divisional standings for a net profit of $600. The Cardinals are 0-4 since May 08, 2010 when Jaime Garcia starts as a 140+ favorite after a quality start and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $630 when playing against.
Nationals at Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks are 0-7 since June 08, 2010 when they lost by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $710 when playing against.
Padres at Dodgers – The Padres are 6-0 since June 15, 2010 when Mat Latos starts vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $625
Rangers at Mariners – The Rangers are 0-4 since July 02, 2010 as a 140+ favorite after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $890 when playing against. The Mariners are 0-6 since June 09, 2009 when Jason Vargas starts as a dog in the first game of a series for a net profit of $600 when playing against.
Phillies at Marlins – The Phillies are 7-0 since April 16, 2010 when Roy Halladay starts after giving up no walks for a net profit of $700. The Marlins are 5-0 since June 12, 2009 as a 170+ dog when they are off a loss in which they held the lead for a net profit of $935.
Angels at Orioles – The Orioles are 0-7 since April 25, 2009 after a loss in which they did not walk the opponent for a net profit of $785 when playing against. The Orioles are 6-0 since April 26, 2009 when they are off two one-run losses for a net profit of $840.
Reds at Pirates – The Pirates are 0-9 since April 21, 2010 as a dog after a loss in which they were shut out in the first 6 innings and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Pirates are 6-0 since May 25, 2009 when Paul Maholm starts as a dog when he is off a start in which he needed more than 4 pitches per batter for a net profit of $925.
Twins at Rays – The Rays are 8-0 since July 05, 2010 at home when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $800.
Indians at Red Sox – The Red Sox are 8-0 since May 09, 2010 as a home favorite after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $800. The Red Sox are 8-0 since April 18, 2009 when Josh Beckett starts as a 200+ favorite for a net profit of $800.
Giants at Rockies – The Giants are 0-8 since May 04, 2009 on the road when they are off a win in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs for a net profit of $825 when playing against. The Rockies are 8-0 since July 30, 2009 as a favorite vs a team that has won at least their last three games for a net profit of $800.
White Sox at Tigers – The White Sox are 10-0 since July 08, 2009 as a favorite after a win in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base as a favorite for a net profit of $1000. The White Sox are 9-0 since May 22, 2010 as a favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $900. The Tigers are 0-5 since September 08, 2009 when Rick Porcello starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $575 when playing against.
Blue Jays at Yankees – The Blue Jays are 0-8 since May 25, 2010 as a dog vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Blue Jays are 0-6 since September 19, 2009 when Ricky Romero starts on the road after facing 30 or more hitters for a net profit of $655 when playing against. The Yankees are 8-0 since July 01, 2010 as a 140+ favorite after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $800.