Tuesday Tips
By Kevin Rogers
A handful of games on the Tuesday card own plenty of playoff implications. The top three teams in the American League East race are separated by six games, as the second and third place teams in the division highlight this edition of Tuesday Tips.
Red Sox at Rays (7:05 PM EST)
The rematch of last season's ALCS will be a quick series, as Boston and Tampa Bay hook up for just two games. The Sox have creeped back towards the top of the AL East after sweeping the Orioles this past weekend. Boston has cleaned up inside the division by winning 28 of 40 games against teams from the East. However, six of those losses have come against the Rays.
Jon Lester (9-7, 3.90 ERA) started the season a bit slow, but has heated up over the summer. The Red Sox are 9-2 in the lefty's last 11 starts, to go along with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 86/23. If you want to get picky, Lester has faced five last-place teams in his last seven trips to the mound (Orioles twice, Nationals, A's, Royals). But, Lester continues to be a workhorse, tossing at least 100 pitches in 19 of his last 21 starts this season. Lester has struggled against the Rays recently, dropping both starts in '09, allowing 18 hits and 13 earned runs in just 9.1 innings of work.
Matt Garza (7-8, 3.69 ERA) has been the opposite of Lester in this series. The Rays are 6-1 in Garza's last seven starts against the Red Sox dating back to last July. Garza has dominated, allowing one earned run or less in five of those starts, including twice in last October's ALCS.
The 'under' has been a strong play when Garza takes the mound, hitting in 15 of his 20 starts, including 11 of the last 12.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants has installed the Rays as a $1.20 home favorite, with the total set at 8 ½.
Yankees at Blue Jays (7:05 PM EST)
Now that Roy Halladay will spend the rest of the season in a Jays uniform, Toronto can concentrate on the final two months. The only problem is Cito Gaston's team has almost played itself out of the playoff race. The Yankees, meanwhile, try to rebound after dropping three of four to the White Sox. New York heads into Tuesday's series leading Boston by a ½ game inside the division.
Despite all the trade talks over the last month, Halladay (11-4, 2.68 ERA) is still the front-runner for the AL Cy Young Award. Halladay was roughed up by the Yankees last time he faced the Bombers, allowing five earned runs in a 6-5 loss on July 4. Prior to that defeat, Halladay beat New York six straight times, dating back to last June. Since Halladay was activated from the disabled list on June 29, the Jays are 1-5 his last six starts.
The Yankees have been lost four of Andy Pettitte's (8-6, 4.51 ERA) last five starts, including his last outing at Chicago. It's tough to blame Pettitte's control, striking out 23, while walking only three in his last three starts. Pettitte's night numbers are outstanding, compiling a 7-2 mark, while the Yanks are 10-4 in his 14 starts under the lights. The Yankees' veteran southpaw does have moderate success at the Rogers Centre, winning three of his last four starts in Toronto, including an 8-2 victory on May 13.
The Jays are a substantial home favorite at $1.50, while the total is listed at 8, according to LVSC.
Rockies at Phillies (7:05 PM EST)
The last time these two teams met up in early April, the Phillies and Rockies were in different places. Philadelphia was getting over its World Series hangover, while Colorado was stumbling out of the gate under former skipper Clint Hurdle. Things have changed dramatically since then, with the Phillies cruising in the NL East, and the Rockies tied atop the NL Wild Card race entering Monday's action.
Philadelphia will try to bounce back after dropping three of four at San Francisco over the weekend. The Phils send out veteran southpaw Jamie Moyer (10-7, 5.32 ERA), who's coming off a victory in his last start at Arizona. Philadelphia is 6-1 in Moyer's last seven trips to the hill, with the Phillies averaging a shade over six runs/game in this stretch.
Jason Hammel (5-6, 4.66 ERA) has been an excellent road 'under' play this season, drilling the 'under' in six of seven away starts. Much of that is attributed to the Rockies providing Hammel with less than 2.5 runs/game in those outings. Despite allowing five earned runs in only 1.1 innings against the Mets his last time out, Hammel's road ERA is a solid 2.67, while compiling quality outings in seven of nine away starts.
LVSC has listed the Phillies as $1.45 home 'chalk,' while the total is set at 10.
What else to watch for:
Marlins righty Josh Johnson looks for his 11th victory on the season at Washington. The Fish have won all three of Johnson's starts against the Nats this season. However, he's allowed seven earned runs in his last 9.1 innings versus Washington.
Jarrod Washburn makes his Tigers debut against the Orioles, after getting acquired from Seattle on Friday. The Detroit southpaw brings in an excellent ERA of 2.64, allowing three earned runs in his last five starts, all victories.
What in the world happened to Johnny Cueto? The Reds right-hander started the season 6-3, putting together a quality start in nine of his first 12 outings. Cincinnati is 3-7 his last ten trips to the mound, while allowing at least four earned runs in six of his last eight starts. And it's tough to forget about that nine-spot the Phillies put up on Cueto and the Reds in the first inning of a 22-1 beatdown on July 6. Cueto takes the mound against the Cubs on Tuesday opposed by former Pirates lefty Tom Gorzelanny.
vegasinsider.com
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Colorado (58-47) at Philadelphia (59-44)
Fresh off a three-game sweep of the Reds in Cincinnati, the Rockies resume their 10-game road trip when they send Jason Hammel (5-6, 4.66 ERA) to the mound opposite the Phillies’ Jamie Moyer (10-7, 5.32) at Citizens Bank Park.
Colorado got two runs in the 11th inning on Sunday and topped the Reds 6-4, then took Monday off. The Rockies started their road trip with three straight losses to the Mets by the combined score of 18-3, but they’ve won the last four, all by multiple runs. Colorado, which leads the N.L. Wild-Card race, is on surges of 38-15 overall, 20-8 on the road and 12-4 in series openers.
Philadelphia, which also was idle Monday, concluded its seven-game road trip by losing four of its last five, including Sunday’s 7-3 setback at San Francisco. Still, the defending champs are on positive streaks of 20-7 overall, 14-3 at home, 5-2 after a loss, 7-3 following a day off and 37-18 on Tuesday.
The Phillies have taken seven of the last eight series clashes with Colorado dating to the start of last season, including winning two of three at Coors Field in the opening week of this season.
The Rockies have lost three straight games behind Hammel, including Thursday’s 7-0 setback at the Mets, with the right-hander giving up five runs on seven hits in a season-low 1 1/3 innings. Over his last five outings, Hammel has surrendered 18 runs (all earned) in 21 2/3 innings (7.48 ERA). Despite the implosion at Citi Field against the Mets, Hammel is still 4-3 with a solid 2.67 ERA on the highway, giving up just two home runs in 57 1/3 innings. He has yet to face the Phillies in his career.
Moyer scattered six hits and four walks in 6 2/3 scoreless innings at Arizona in his most recent start on July 27, with Philadelphia prevailing 6-2. It was the second time in his last three starts that Moyer pitched scoreless baseball, but both of those outings were on the road. He’s struggled at Citizens Bank this year, going 4-5 with a 6.83 ERA in 10 starts.
With Moyer on the mound, Philadelphia is on streaks of 6-1 overall, 4-1 on Tuesday and 25-8 when opening a series. However, the 46-year-old southpaw has struggled with Colorado in his career, going 1-4 with a 5.45 ERA in five starts, but the one victory was a 20-5 blowout win at home last May.
These clubs have been involved in shootouts lately, as the “over” is 7-1 in the last eight head-to-head meetings overall and 10-4-1 in the last 15 clashes in Philadelphia (playoffs included). The “over” is also 4-1 in the Phillies’ last five at home. Conversely, Philadelphia carries “under” trends of 5-2 overall, 5-0 against right-handed starters, 5-2 versus the N.L. West and 10-3 in Moyer’s last 13 starts. Similarly, the Rockies are on “under” runs of 5-1-1 overall, 4-1-1 on the road, 5-1-1 with Hammel on the mound and 4-0-1 with Hammel working on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (62-42) at Tampa Bay (58-48)
The Red Sox continue their nine-game A.L. East road trip with a brief two-game stop at Tropicana Field, with Jon Lester (9-7, 3.90) scheduled to pitch opposite the Rays’ Matt Garza (7-8, 3.69).
Boston has won four in a row, including a three-game weekend sweep at Baltimore that was capped by Sunday’s 18-10 rout. The Red Sox, who were off on Monday, have busted out offensively in a big way, scoring six runs or more in six of their last seven games, averaging 8.3 runs per game during this stretch. In addition to winning its last four in a row, Terry Francona’s crew is on runs of 40-13 after an off day, 19-7 against A.L. East rivals and 4-1 in series openers, but it has lost 27 of its last 39 games played on artificial turf.
Tampa Bay took down the Royals 10-4 on Monday afternoon, yet has only split its last eight games. In fact, the defending American League champs are just 14-13 in their last 27 overall (8-5 at home). On the bright side, the Rays are on upticks of 91-38 at Tropicana Field going back to 2008, 9-3 at home against lefty starters, 5-2 in series openers and 4-0 on Tuesday.
Tampa Bay holds a 6-4 lead in the season series with Boston, though the teams have alternated wins and losses in the last six contests. Going back to last September – and including the A.L. Championship Series between the clubs – the Red Sox have lost seven of their last 10 at Tropicana Field, going 1-3 this year.
Lester’s run of six straight quality starts and 10 consecutive outings allowing three earned runs or fewer came to halt Thursday against the A’s, as he gave up four runs in 5 2/3 innings. However, Red Sox rallied for an 8-5 victory, improving to 9-2 in the lefty’s last 11 starts. Furthermore, with Lester on the bump, the Red Sox are on runs of 49-22 overall, 4-1 on the road, 4-1 against the A.L. East and 4-1 on Tuesday.
Lester is 4-4 with a 4.52 ERA in 10 road starts this season, but 3-1 with a 2.18 ERA in his last five road efforts. On the downside, he’s faced the Rays twice this season – both at home – and got walloped in both contests, giving up five runs in five innings of a 7-2 loss on April 8 and yielding eight runs in 4 1/3 innings of a 14-5 defeat exactly a month later. Boston has lost four straight games to the Rays with Lester pitching, including two playoff contests last October.
Garza has surrendered three earned runs or fewer in four straight starts, including Thursday when he limited the Yankees to three runs on eight hits and three walks in seven innings, but he lost 6-2. Tampa Bay is just 5-7 in Garza’s last 12 trips to the mound, including 2-3 at home, where the right-hander is 4-4 despite a solid 3.36 ERA In 11 starts.
Garza is 2-0 with a 1.66 ERA in three starts against the Red Sox this year and 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA in his last five outings against Boston (including two playoff wins in October). Additionally, with Garza facing the Sox, Tampa Bay is on runs of 6-1 overall and 5-0 in Florida.
Boston is on “under” runs of 6-1 overall, 7-2 on the road, 7-3-1 on Tuesday, 6-2-1 against the A.L. East, 14-6-3 in series openers, 7-2-1 after a day off and 9-1-3 when Lester begins a series. Similarly, Tampa Bay is riding “under” streaks of 38-17-2 overall, 4-1-1 at home, 11-3 in divisional play, 5-1 versus lefty starters, 13-3 against winning teams and 4-0 on Tuesday. Also, with Garza pitching, the “under” is on stretches of 35-16-2 overall (11-1 last 12), 4-1 at home and 5-0 against the A.L. East.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY and UNDER
Gametimepicks.com
Tuesday’s Aces Wild
By Brobury Sports
Roy Halladay is making his first start since Toronto’s shocking decision not to trade him. Halladay is just one of several Tuesday aces.
Andy Pettitte (NY Yankees) vs. Roy Halladay (Toronto)
New York is a surprising +120 road dog with a start time of 7:07 pm ET. This is the first game in a short two-game series. The Yankees are 5-2 against Toronto this year and 2-1 at the Rogers Centre.
Halladay (11-4, 2.68 ERA) is not happy about staying in Toronto as he was convinced he was being traded. The Jays have lost six of his last seven starts, mostly due to a lack of run support, and he could struggle against this lineup if his concentration is off.
Pettitte (8-6, 4.51 ERA) gets a tough assignment against Halladay and he’s also struggling to get wins at 0-3 in his last five starts. Pettitte did have a May start in Toronto and gave up just one run in six innings for the win.
Jon Lester (Boston) vs. Matt Garza (Tampa Bay)
Boston is at Even -110 odds at Tampa Bay with a start time of 7:08 pm ET. This opens a two-game series. Boston is 1-3 in Tampa this year and were 1-8 there in the 2008 regular season.
Lester (9-7, 3.90 ERA) gives Boston a great one-two punch with Josh Beckett and that’s really needed as the rest of the starting staff is in tatters right now. Lester is currently pitching much better than his numbers suggest, 6-2 with a 2.17 ERA since May 31st.
Garza (7-8, 3.69 ERA) is a steady pitcher who deserves better than his current record. His last start was at home against the Yankees when he gave up three earned runs in seven innings. He has pitched better at home this season (3.36 ERA) than on the road (4.09 ERA).
Joel Pineiro (St. Louis) vs. Johan Santana (NY Mets)
New York is at -110 Even odds at home with the first pitch at 7:10 pm ET. This is another two-game set opening tonight.
Santana (12-8, 2.96 ERA) has thrown seven innings of shutout ball in three of his last four starts. He did get rocked in the other start at Houston but his home numbers this season (8-2, 1.69 ERA) have been tremendous.
Pineiro (9-9, 2.84 ERA) is 8th in the NL in ERA (ahead of Santana) and has been fantastic this month with a 1.22 ERA in five starts. Pineiro threw a complete shutout at the Mets on June 23rd and has a .87 ERA in his last four road starts overall.
Home Cookin
By SportsPic
Toronto Blue Jays off a 3-3 road swing return to Rogers Center for a five game home stand starting with two against A.L. East leading New York Yankees. Jays 51-54 (-$723) overall averaging 4.8 runs/game, 29-33 in front of the home crowd crossing 4.7 over home plate have had little success this season vs the Bronx Bombers dropping 5-of-7 meetings. However, expect a reversal in trend Tuesday as Jays hand the ball to ace Roy Halladay (11-4, 2.68). Despite just one victory in seven attempts the righty leads Jays past visiting Yankees. Doc has owned New York going 16-5 in thirty two career starts. Jays did drop the last meeting vs Yankees with Doc however, it is well to note Toronto hasn't lost back-2-backs against New York with Halladay in eight years and are 21-7 over the span including ten consecutive victories north of the border with the righty winning by an average 5.5 runs/game.
Tuesday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
By Covers.com
Streaking
Johan Santana, New York Mets
New York’s marquee starter appears to have shrugged off some early-season struggles and reminded the Mets’ fans and management why he is deserving of his enormous contract.
Santana (12-8, 2.96 ERA) has done his part to help lead New York’s moderate resurgence by going 3-1 in his past four starts. Although he gave up five earned runs in a loss at Houston, Santana sandwiched that outing with three shutout performances in which he blanked the opposition for 21 straight innings.
The 30-year-old lefty gave up four hits over seven innings his last time out in a win over the Colorado Rockies. He has struck out 21 batters and walked seven during this streak.
John Lackey, Los Angeles Angels
Long the anchor of the Angels’ rotation, Lackey (7-4, 4.00 ERA) has returned to his reliable form just in time to help the red-hot team’s 26th-ranked pitching staff.
After battling a forearm injury for much of the early season, Lackey has won his past four starts while allowing just seven total earned runs in this span.
The 6-foot-6 right-hander has gone at least seven innings during this run, which includes a complete-game shutout of the Oakland A’s on July 19.
Slumping
Andy Pettitte, New York Yankees
New York’s rock-solid veteran lefty has lost a bit of his touch of late, going 0-3 with two no-decisions in past five trips to the hill.
Pettitte (8-6, 4.51 ERA) endured back-to-back outings against the Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Angels in which he was tagged for six earned runs. The 37-year-old also has put some pressure on New York’s bullpen by failing to get past the sixth inning in four of his five previous outings.
Jose Contreras, Chicago White Sox
Contreras (4-10, 4.80 ERA) has been nearly as bad as his record indicates, but he has been just inadequate enough to come out on the losing end of close contests.
The 37-year-old right-hander has gone 2-5 in his past seven starts and has lost his past three decisions. Contreras has yielded 11 earned runs and 20 hits over 15-plus innings in this span, which includes a loss to the Minnesota Twins in his last performance.
Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
Tuesday, Aug. 4
Boston at Tampa Bay (7:08 p.m. EDT). Jon Lester (9-7, 3.90 ERA) faces Tampa Bay's Matt Garza (7-8, 3.69) in the opener of a two-game series at Tropicana Field. The Red Sox have won four consecutive games.
STARS
Monday
-Rajai Davis, Athletics, had a pinch-hit triple down the right field line to drive in two runs in the bottom of the ninth inning and lift Oakland to a 3-2 victory over Texas .
-Clete Thomas, Tigers, homered with two outs in the bottom of the ninth to give Detroit a 6-5 win over Baltimore.
-Randy Wells, Cubs, took a shutout into the eighth inning and helped Chicago beat the Reds 4-2.
-Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks, hit two home runs to lift Arizona to a 6-5 win over the New York Mets.
-Adam Dunn and Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals, homered to help Washington rally to beat Pittsburgh 8-4 .
-Carl Crawford, Rays, had three hits and three RBIs to lead Tampa Bay to a 10-4 win over Kansas City.
SURGERY
Arizona Diamondbacks ace Brandon Webb had shoulder surgery Monday, putting an end to a difficult season for the usually durable right-hander. Arizona was expected to be a playoff contender this year with Webb and Dan Haren at the front of its rotation. But Webb never pitched again after a no-decision against Colorado on opening day and the Diamondbacks quickly fell off the pace in the NL West.
WILD THING
Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw lost for the first time since June 10, issuing a season-high six walks, including four straight in the fourth inning to bring in two of his three runs allowed. Kershaw had an 0.79 ERA in his previous nine starts.
SNAPPED
Matt Cain lost for the first time in the last six games he started with the Giants' 4-3 defeat to Houston. Cain (12-3) failed in his bid to become the fourth pitcher in Giants history to win 13 of his first 15 decisions in a season. He allowed two homers in a game for the first time since June 9.
STRUGGLING
Cincinnati starter Aaron Harang lost his ninth straight decision with the Reds' 4-2 defeat by Chicago. Harang (5-13), who leads the majors in losses, hasn't won since May 25. It's the deepest slump of his career and the longest losing streak by a Reds pitcher since Danny Graves lost 10 straight between the 2003 and 2004.
STATS
Alex Gonzalez was out of the Reds' starting lineup and ended an 0-for-20 slump when he homered in the eighth inning. ... The A's won for the third time in 53 games when trailing after the eighth inning. ... Oakland outfielder Rajai Davis has 16 RBIs since the All-Star Break. ... Zack Greinke allowed six runs and 10 hits over five innings, and is 0-4 in six starts since his last win on June 28 at Pittsburgh. He is 0-3 in five career games, including four starts, at Tropicana Field. ... Royals 3B Alex Gordon, hitless in 11 at-bats in the first three games of the series, was out of the starting lineup. Gordon is 0 for 34 overall at Tropicana Field.
SPEAKING
"This is one of my favorite starts of my career. In the past, I would have fallen apart - when I struggled in the first, I would never make it out of the fourth. Tonight, I went eight and kept us in the game.'' - Detroit starter Justin Verlander, who gave up five runs in the first inning before settling down to stymie the Orioles the rest of the game.
Phillies host Rockies
By SBGGlobal.com
Colorado Rockies (58-47) at Philadelphia Phillies (59-44)
SBG Global Opening Line: Phillies -155 , Total 10 Flat
Two of the best teams in the National League match up in Philadelphia on Tuesday as the Phillies host the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies have won four straight on the road and are very much in the Wild Card race while the Phillies are starting to pull away in the National League East. Philadelphia won 14 of 17 at home in the month of July as they averaged 6.9 runs per game. The Phillies did not play that well on the road last week though as they went 3-4 including a 7-3 loss on Sunday.
SBG Global reports that early MLB Betting has the public taking Phillies at Home.
Jamie Moyer gets the start for the Phillies on Tuesday. He is 10-7 on the season with a 5.32 ERA. He has pitched better of late, going 6-1 with a 3.51 ERA in his last seven starts. In his last start against Colorado, Moyer got the win but he has not pitched well in his career against the Rockies with an ERA that is over five.
The Rockies swept the Red over the weekend, improving to 3-4 on their long road trip. The win on Sunday was a 6-4 win in extra innings. "That was a great game to grind that out in the manner in which we did," Rockies manager Jim Tracy said. "We win that game because of several little things that we pride ourselves in."
The Rockies go with Jason Hammel on Tuesday. He is 5-6 with a 4.66 ERA this season. He did not pitch well in his last outing, giving up five runs and seven hits in only an inning and a third against the Mets. Colorado has not won at Philadelphia since September of 2007.
Here are the MLB Betting stats for Tuesday’s game. The Rockies are 13-4 in their last 17 games as a road underdog. The Rockies are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Rockies are 9-4 in Hammel’s last 13 starts. The Rockies are 1-7 in the last 8 meetings against the Phillies.
The Phillies are 14-2 in their last 16 games as a home favorite. The Phillies are 6-1 in Moyer’s last 7 starts.
SBG Global Current Line: Phillies -138 , Total 10 Over - 120
The Under is 4-0-1 in the Rockies last 5 games as a road underdog. The Over is 4-1-1 in the Rockies last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Under is 4-0-1 in Hammel’s last 5 road starts. The Over is 4-1 in the Phillies last 5 home games. The Under is 4-1 in Moyer’s last 5 starts as a home favorite. The Over is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings in Philadelphia between the two teams.