Tuesday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Francisco Liriano (12-7, 3.29 ERA), Minnesota Twins
This lefty is pitching like he’s ready for October baseball. He carries a 2.15 ERA over his last eight starts into Tuesday’s game. And forget about taking the ace yard. Liriano has given up just one homer in his last 112 1/3 innings pitched.
The Twins are also 8-1 in Liriano’s last nine appearances.
Barry Enright (6-2, 2.45 ERA), Arizona Diamondbacks
You’ve got to look at the positives when you’re having a crap season like the Diamondbacks are having. Barry Enright’s half-season performance is one good thing Arizona backers should remember going into next season.
The D-backs are 5-1 in the young righty’s last six starts and the under is 7-3 in his last 10 appearaances.
Slumping
Daisuke Matsuzaka (9-4, 4.29 ERA), Boston Red Sox
Much ado about nothing. That’s pretty much how most would describe Dice-K’s big league career so far. He consistently disappoints when Boston needs a big game and he refuses to just get the ball over the plate against scrub hitters.
Matsuzaka has surrendered four runs in five of his last six starts and the over is 4-0 in his last four trips to the mound.
Kevin Correia (10-10, 5.52), San Diego Padres
Things are going well for San Diego backers. Kevin Correia is not the type of hurler you want to be sending to the hill when your club is struggling.
The 30-year-old righthander is 0-3 with a 15.00 ERA over his last three starts. The over is also 5-0 in his last five outings.
Tips and Trends
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
RAYS: (-130, O/U 8.5) Tampa Bay is chasing the Yankees for 1st place in the American League East division, which they currently trail by 2.5 games. However, Tampa has a firm grasp on the AL Wild-Card, as they lead by 6.5 games. The Rays have been so inconsistent both at home and on the road this year, it appears unlikely they will lose this lead. Tampa is 83-53 SU this year, including 40-27 SU on the road. The Rays are +7.45 and -2.80 units both SU and on the RL respectively this season. Ace lefty David Price will take the mound today, as he is 16-6 with an ERA of 2.92 and a WHIP of 1.24 this season. The Rays are 5-1 in their last 6 Tuesday games overall. The Rays are 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Tampa is 21-7 in their last 28 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Rays are 2-6 in their last 8 road games against a right-handed starter. Tampa is 16-4 in Price's last 20 starts against the American League East. The Rays are 20-7 in Price's last 27 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Rays are 11-4 in Price's last 15 road starts. Tampa is 5-2 in Price's last 7 road starts against a team with a winning record.
Rays are 8-2 last 10 games against a team with a winning record.
Under is 7-3 last 10 games against the American League East.
Key Injuries - RF Gabe Kapler (ankle) is out.
Projected Score: 5 (SIDE of the Day)
RED SOX: It finally appears that all of the injuries the Red Sox have sustained have caught up with them. Despite a valiant fight, their current 3 game losing streak has all but ended the playoffs hopes of Boston. The Red Sox are 76-61 SU this year, 7.5 games behind Tampa Bay in their race for the playoffs. Boston is -2.06 and -2.77 units both SU and on the RL overall this season. Pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka will make the home start tonight, as he is 9-4 with an ERA of 4.29 and a WHIP of 1.32 this year. Boston has lost both meetings with Tampa this season when Matsuzaka has made the start. The Red Sox are 10-3 in their last 13 during game 2 of a series. Boston is 2-5 in their last 7 games on grass. The Red Sox are 4-0 in Matsuzaka's last 4 starts against the American League East. Boston is 5-1 in Matsuzaka's last 6 home starts against a team with a winning record. The Red Sox are 8-2 in Matsuzaka's last 10 home starts overall.
Red Sox are 1-4 last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Over is 7-3 last 10 games against a left-handed starter.
Key Injuries - SS Marco Scutaro (shoulder) is questionable.
Projected Score: 3
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
DODGERS: (-135, O/U 6.5) Los Angeles certainly isn't doing themselves any favors, as they've failed of late to get themselves right back in the thick of the playoff chase in the National League. As a result of their inconsistent play, the Dodgers are only 69-68 SU this season. The Dodgers offense simply isn't carrying the weight that this pitching staff is. Time and time again, the Dodgers have lost games this year after receiving a Quality Start from their starting rotation. The Dodgers are -9.58 and -12.79 units both SU and on the RL respectively this season. Lefty Clayton Kershaw will make the road start tonight, as he is 11-9 with an ERA of 3.01 and a WHIP of 1.24 this season. The Dodgers are 7-3 in their last 10 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Los Angeles is 6-13 in their last 19 road games against a right-handed starter. The Dodgers are 8-22 in their last 30 road games against a team with a winning record. The Dodgers are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the National League West. Los Angeles is 10-2 in Kershaw's last 12 starts against the National League West. The Dodgers are 5-2 in Kershaw's last 7 starts with 5 days of rest. Los Angeles is 3-8 in Kershaw's last 11 starts against a team with a winning record.
Dodgers are 9-4 last 13 games as a road favorite.
Under is 5-1 last 6 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
Key Injuries - C Russell Martin (hip) is out.
Projected Score: 5 (OVER-Total of the Day)
PADRES: San Diego is really struggling, going thru their worst losing streak in several years. The Padres have lost 10 consecutive games to let nearly everyone in the National League West back in the race for the postseason. For a division leader that shown so much consistency this year, this extended losing streak is shocking. The Padres are 76-59 SU this year, including 38-29 SU at home. San Diego is +18.89 and +10.57 units both SU and on the RL overall this year. Veteran and team leader Kevin Correia will take the ball today, looking to get his team back on track. Correia is 10-10 with an ERA of 5.52 and a WHIP of 1.50 this season. The Padres are 9-3 in their last 12 home games against a left-handed starter. San Diego is 1-4 in their last 5 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. The Padres are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a home underdog. San Diego is 6-2 in Correia's last 8 starts as a home favorite. The Padres are 2-7 in Correia's last 9 starts against the National League West. San Diego is 1-4 in Correia's last 5 starts as a home underdog.
Padres are 0-7 last 7 games against the National League West.
Under is 6-1 last 7 games as a favorite.
Key Injuries - 3B Jerry Hairston (elbow) is out.
Projected Score: 4
MLB RoundUp for 9/7
By Dan Bebe
National League
Braves (-250) @ Pirates with a total of 7.5
With so much going on, the hour I can save by not typing up some of these ridiculously inflated games is extremely important, so unless I see a great reason to back the dog or play the total in these games with giant lines, the writeups are going to be saved for the better games.
Marlins @ Phillies (-170) with a total of 9.5
If I'm going to fade Joe Blanton, I sure as hell don't want to have to back Chris Volstad. Pass!
Mets @ Nationals (-125) with a total of 8.5
A battle of guys making their Major League Debuts, so you have to immediately give the slight edge to the home pitcher, who will have the added adrenaline boost of a crowd (albeit, a small one) on his side. On top of that, the Nationals have scored a team record 85 runs over the last 11 games (or so, I added it quickly). They're hitting everything in sight, so really, I see no good reason to fade the Nationals. Obviously, they haven't seen Dillon Gee, but his numbers in the Minors this year would only qualify as "okay," though he does have strikeout stuff. Sort of a jumbled writeup on this game, I know, but so it goes when you hit September, and half your browser windows are to Baseball-Reference's Minor League pages.
Astros @ Cubs (-130) with a total of N/A
This game is a decent value on the Astros, in my opinion. Yesterday, there were a lot of folks that backed Wandy Rodriguez because of how popular he's become, and today, it's the exact opposite. Carlos Silva is the more recognizable name, and most people can see his 10-5 record and assume he's set to roll. Fact is, before getting hurt and missing a month of action, Silva had been pretty inconsistent for a month. Nelson Figueroa is a lefty, which scares me, since the Cubs actually do hit lefties well, but he's also sporting a 2.83 ERA and the Astros have won 4 of his 5 starts this year.
Cardinals @ Brewers (-120) with a total of 9.5
Kyle Lohse has been complete garbage since coming off the DL, so while I'd love to back St. Louis again and go back to the well on a team that looks poised to make one final push at the Reds, I just can't put my money on a guy with a 7.12 ERA. Narveson has allowed 4 runs in each of his starts against the Cardinals, so he's not exactly the world-beater we'd like to back if we're fading Lohse. Still, the Brewers have actually done a decent job of scoring runs for Narveson and finding ways to win his starts. This game is either a play on Milwaukee to tag Lohse, or a play on both teams to tag the other.
Reds @ Rockies (-130) with a total of 9
These pitchers have very, very little experience against the other team, which leads us down the path that the teams should struggle to score early, then adjust late. That is, if things go according to the standard plan, which things have a way of avoiding from time to time. Cueto is coming off 2 strong starts after a clunker in LA, so he's confident, and he has the fastball to be mildly effective at Coors. Chacin has quietly put together a tidy little 3.69 ERA, and he, too, has put together a few decent starts in a row. The line is pretty strong for Colorado, considering the Reds are in the thick of the pennant race, but not so strong that it's outrageously fishy, only a tiny bit. This one might come down to the bullpens, and I think the team with the homefield knowledge should score last.
Giants (-135) @ D'backs with a total of 8
This game is a rematch of one we saw pretty recently in San Francisco, a game the Giants lost 6-0. Lincecum did finally have himself a good start his last time on the hill, shutting the Rockies down on just 1 run over 8 innings. Was it an aberration against a Rockies team that can't hit on the road, or is Lincecum finally back and the lines are super-low as a gift? Can Enright continue to dominate through to the end of the 2010 campaign? We saw the Giants just wanted it more yesterday in an extra-inning Labor Day win, and I feel like motivation is going to be key in this entire series. I might consider another Under if Lincecum is actually ready to roll. I might also consider the public side because of the bullpen edge.
Dodgers @ Padres with a total of 6.5
I had typed the following when I thought we were getting Kershaw and Correia, but now my desire to take the Padres has dwindled to a fleeting sense of doom about both sides and both totals in this one: "This line feels a tad inflated on the Dodgers side, and it seems like people were awfully quick to bound off the Padres bandwagon. I mean, I know a 10-game losing streak (these teams haven't yet played on Monday while I type this) is a pretty good reason to stop betting on a team, but considering how bad the Dodgers have been the 2nd half of the year, getting this type of road number is a little goofy. Kershaw is good - we know what we're going to get from him, and he's been able to shut the Padres down twice this year. Correia has been awful in his last 3 starts, but if ever the Padres have a shot to grab a win, especially now being an underdog again, it would be against an opposing ace, and better yet, my pathetic Dodgers."
American League
Orioles @ Yankees (-360) with a total of 8.5
Quarter unit on the dog, 'nuff said.
White Sox @ Tigers (-160) with a total of 8
I have no idea how the stars haven't aligned yet, but this is Verlander's first start against the White Sox this year. Crazy, I know. He's seen plenty of them over the years, though, enough to accrue a rather ugly 5-9, 4.87 lifetime mark against them. To Verlander's credit, he's shut down Konerko, Kotsay, and Mark Teahen, of the current Sox, but A.J. Pierzynski has been a thorn in Verlander's side, as has Carlos Quentin. Verlander is the Tigers' ace, but he'll give up a couple runs, there's little doubt in my mind. On the other side is "The Garbageman." I heard the incredible metaphor that Freddy Garcia lobs crumpled up pieces of paper at home plate for a living and I had to repeat it here because it made me laugh...but it's true! The guy throws all off-speed stuff, but he's been dynamite against the Tigers. The red-hot Sox are a live dog.
Rangers @ Blue Jays (-166) with a total of 9
Scott Feldman is back in the rotation for the Rangers, so you know I'm looking for a way to fade, but maybe the easier play is to just go with the Over. Feldman is 0-3 with a 5.94 ERA against the Jays, and while Marcum is 1-0 against Texas (the Jays have owned the Rangers this year), his 5.33 ERA isn't too inspiring, and neither is the -166 price tag. This one is a small play on the Jays or the Over for me, since Texas is just spiraling right now, banged up and unable to get key hits, and not getting very good pitching on the road, either.
Rays (-130) @ Red Sox with a total of 8.5
Interestingly, neither of these guys has been all that impressive against the other team. Price is 2-2 with a 3.81 ERA against the Red Sox, and Daisuke is 2-5 with a 4.34 ERA against the Rays, including 1 marginal start and 1 rather mediocre effort this year. Price has pitched well enough to win against Boston this season, but not well enough to guarantee a win, if that makes sense. He's going 7 innings, but he's giving up 2-3 runs, which does leave a little window in these intense affairs. Let's see how Monday's game plays out before making any final judgments here, but the Rays were struggling a tad going into this series, and Boston was looking downright terrible coming into this series, so someone's gotta play worse than the other, right?
Royals @ Twins (-305) with a total of 8
Line inflation, thy name is September. Quarter unit on the Royales, with Cheese.
Indians @ Angels (-130) with a total of 8.5
Is it funny to anyone else that Trevor Bell's name is "teabell?" I'm going to work the word "steeped" into every writeup of his from here on out, and that's a promise I can keep. In any case, Bell is coming off back-to-back solid starts, and I am inclined to believe he goes 6 strong innings in this one against an Indians team that isn't doing much to impress down the stretch. I know the Angels are awful, but their home run cuts might be just what the doctor ordered against the erratic Justin Masterson, who has a great sinker but gives up a ton of homers when he starts letting that 2-seamer get above the thighs. It's a cheap price on the Angels, too, because of how bad they've looked the last 3 weeks.
Mariners @ Athletics (-175) with a total of 7
I'm not paying that price to back a junkballer. Plus, Doug Fister is 3-1 with a 1.50 ERA against the Athletics, 2 of those wins coming this year. And considering he's 4-11 on the year, 50% of his wins have come against the A's. This is not a play I'd make a Top level selection, but if you want to lose some hair and have some games on your computer until 1am, the Mariners might be worth a small play, simply because they're going to keep this one relatively close, and getting +165 on a coin-flip is definitely a long term winner.
Diamond Trends - Tuesday
By Vince Akins
Indians at Angels – The Indians are 0-11 since August 25, 2009 when Justin Masterson starts after throwing more than 100 pitches at home for a net profit of $1110 when playing against. The Angels are 5-0 since June 26, 2010 after a loss in which they were tied at the end of 6 innings for a net profit of $605.
Mariners at Athletics – The Mariners are 5-0 since August 08, 2010 after a loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base for a net profit of $595.
Rangers at Blue Jays – The Blue Jays are 7-0 since May 14, 2010 as a home favorite after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $700.
Cardinals at Brewers – The Brewers are 9-0 since May 20, 2010 as a favorite when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $900.
Astros at Cubs – The Cubs are 0-6 since April 27, 2010 at home after a win in which they were tied at the end of 6 innings for a net profit of $730 when playing against.
Giants at Diamondbacks – The Giants are 11-0 since May 29, 2010 as a favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1100. The Diamondbacks are 0-9 since April 18, 2010 within 20 cents of pickem vs a team that has won at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $905 when playing against.
Mets at Nationals – The Mets are 0-7 since April 14, 2010 as a dog after a 5+ run loss for a net profit of $700 when playing against.
Dodgers at Padres – The Dodgers are 6-0 since April 24, 2010 when Clayton Kershaw starts on the road after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $640.
Marlins at Phillies – The Phillies are 12-0 since July 23, 2010 after a win in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $1290.
Braves at Pirates – The Braves are 8-0 since April 15, 2010 when Tim Hudson starts as a favorite after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $800.
Rays at Red Sox – The Rays are 8-0 since June 12, 2010 as a favorite after a loss in which they drew 5+ walks and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $800.
Reds at Rockies – The Rockies are 0-5 since August 03, 2010 as a favorite after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $685 when playing against..
White Sox at Tigers – The White Sox are 0-6 since April 13, 2010 as a dog after a one run win and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Tigers are 8-0 since April 28, 2010 at home after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings for a net profit of $820.
Royals at Twins- The Twins are 0-6 since April 11, 2010 when they are off two one-run wins for a net profit of $815 when playing against.
Orioles at Yankees – The Yankees are 9-0 since June 19, 2010 when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $900.