Tuesday's Best Mound Matchup
By Covers.com
CC Sabathia (New York Yankees) vs. Scott Kazmir (Los Angeles Angels)
CC Sabathia (19-8, 3.37 ERA)
Sabathia has been nearly untouchable in his first two postseason starts of 2009. The burly left-hander is posting a 2-0 record and 1.23 ERA, with his most recent trip to the mound lasting eight innings in which Sabathia allowed just one run on four hits while striking out seven batters in Game 1 of the ALCS.
That improved his postseason totals to 4-3 with a 5.45 ERA in seven career playoff starts. He has a postseason strikeout-to-walk count of 39-to-23 and has lasted an average of just over five innings per postseason start.
That Game 1 victory was his first win over the Angels this season. In the regular season, Sabathia was 0-2 with a bloated 6.08 ERA including a rough outing at Angels Stadium in the middle of July. He was hit for five earned runs on nine hits while walking three batters in just under seven innings of work. Sabathia has a 12-6 record and 3.53 ERA on the road this season.
Scott Kazmir (10-9, 4.89 ERA)
Kazmir was roughed up by a familiar foe, the Boston Red Sox, in his first start of the playoffs. He allowed six runs on five hits while walking three batters in six innings of Game 3 of the ALDS. However, the Angels bailed the left-hander out with a dramatic comeback to sweep the Red Sox and hand Kazmir a no-decision.
With that blunder, Kazmir’s postseason totals took a hit. He is 1-1 in six career playoff starts and watched his postseason ERA climb to 4.83. As a member of the Tampa Bay Rays, Kazmir faced the Yankees eight times before making the move to Los Angeles, where he has played New York once as a member of the Angels. He has a career 3-3 record and slim 2.42 ERA and has held New York to a .214 batting average in those nine starts.
His most recent outing versus New York was a six-inning, three-hit, three-run outing at Angels Stadium which the Halos dropped 3-2. As a home starter, Kazmir is 5-4 with an ERA just south of 6.00 going back to his time in Tampa Bay. In Los Angeles, he has yet to record a win after going 0-1 with a 2.84 ERA in three home starts.
N.Y. Yankees (5-1) at L.A. Angels (4-2)
After a thrilling 11-inning victory Monday, the Angels look to even this best-of-7 American League Championship series when they give the ball to newcomer Scott Kazmir (10-9, 4.99) in Game 4 at Angel Stadium, while the Yankees counter with ace CC Sabathia (21-8, 3.24 ERA).
Los Angeles rallied from 3-0, sixth-inning deficit in Game 3 and prevailed 5-4 in 11 innings thanks to Jeff Mathis’ two-out double that scored Howie Kendrick from first base, handing New York its first defeat of this postseason. These teams have played 24 innings the last two games, following New York’s 4-3 victory in 13 innings Saturday.
New York – which is back in the ALCS after getting bounced in the first round in 2005, 2006 and 2007 – is still on impressive runs of 46-18 overall, 4-1 on Tuesday, 11-4 in the fourth game of a series and 8-3 against left-handed starters. However, the last time the Yankees were in the ALCS, they blew a 3-0 series lead to the Red Sox in 2004, and they’re now 1-7 in their last eight road playoff contests.
Going back to the end of the regular season, the Halos have won 11 of 14 overall, seven of eight at home, 37 of 52 against southpaw starters and 14 of 19 at home against lefties. However, L.A. has dropped 12 of its last 17 playoff games, including six of nine at home, and it snapped a six-game ALCS losing skid with Monday’s win. Although, the Angels bounced longtime playoff nemesis Boston in three games in the first round, this is just their sixth-ever appearance in the ALCS, having lost four of the first five.
The Yankees had won four straight in this rivalry prior to blowing Monday’s game, and they’re now 7-6 in 13 meetings this year. However, New York has lost five of six this year in Anaheim and is just 8-21 in their last 29 games at Angel Stadium. In fact, the host is 17-4 in the last 21 clashes between these clubs going back to the beginning of last August (10-3 this season).
These teams have met just twice previously in postseason play, both in the best-of-5 divisional round, and the Angels won both times in 2002 and 2005.
Sabathia struggled in his first two postseason appearances in 2007-08, going 2-3 with a 7.92 ERA in five starts with Cleveland and Milwaukee. However, he’s been brilliant in two playoff outings in pinstripes, going 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA in beating the Twins 7-2 and the Angels 4-1, both in Game 1 at home. He gave up one earned run in each game over a total 14 2/3 innings, walking just one while striking out 15.
Eliminate an awful regular-season finale against Tampa Bay (nine runs, five earned, in 2 2/3 innings of a 13-4 loss), and Sabathia has delivered 12 consecutive quality starts. Even with the bad outing at Tampa Bay, New York is 13-1 in Sabathia’s last 14 trips the hill, all multiple-run victories. Additionally, with the hefty lefty starting, the Yankees are on runs of 6-1 on the road, 5-0 against the A.L. West, 9-1 against winning clubs and 4-1 on Tuesday.
Sabathia was 12-6 with a 3.53 ERA in 19 regular-season road starts. Also, with the dominating eight-inning effort in Game 1 on Friday, he’s now 6-7 with a 4.42 ERA in 15 career outings versus the Angels, including 1-2 with a 4.22 ERA in three games this year and 2-3 with a 4.63 ERA in seven starts at Angel Stadium.
Kazmir got roughed up a bit in Game 3 of the ALDS in Boston on Oct. 11, allowing five runs on five hits in six innings, but the Angels rallied for a series-clinching 7-6 victory to improve to 5-1 in Kazmir’s last six starts (2-1 at home). Prior to the outing against the Red Sox, Kazmir had gone 2-2 with 1.73 ERA in six regular-season starts after being traded from Tampa Bay to Los Angeles, with opponents batting just .212 against the left-hander in those six games.
Kazmir is 0-1 with a 2.84 ERA in three home starts with Los Angeles, but the one loss came against the Yankees on Sept. 23. In that game, Kazmir suffered a 3-2 setback, allowing all three runs on six hits in six innings. Despite that result, the Houston native, who faced New York often with the Rays, is 6-5 with a sparkling 2.67 ERA in 15 career appearances (14 starts) against the Yanks. Finally, including five starts with the Rays during their World Series run last year, Kazmir is now 1-1 with a 4.83 ERA in postseason play.
New York is on “under” runs of 15-6-1 overall, 8-3 in playoff road games, 5-1-1 in playoff games overall, 5-2 in ALCS action, 6-2-1 against lefty starters and 16-5-1 after a victory. However, the over is 11-1 in Sabathia’s last 12 outings on the highway and 7-1-1 in his last nine versus the A.L. West.
Similarly, the Angels are on “under” runs of 34-17-1 overall, 4-2 at home, 16-6 against southpaws (7-1 last eight at home against lefties), 9-4 in ALCS games, 5-2 against A.L. East teams, 7-1-1 on Tuesday and 6-1 with Kazmir on the bump
In this rivalry, the under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings overall (2-1 in this ALCS), but the over is 15-5 in the last 20 head-to-head clashes in Southern California, with Game 3 barely hurdling the 8½-run posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
Tips and Trends
New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels
Yankees (-$1.35, O/U 8 over -$1.15): The Yankees traditionally do not play well at Angel Stadium losing 21 of their last 29 road games to the Angels. CC Sabathia (19-7, 3.37 ERA) is out to change that. The big lefty is facing the Angels on three days rest after pitching a terrific eight innings against them on Friday in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series. Sabathia held the Angels to one run on four hits with seven strikeouts and one walk. Sabathia wasn’t bothered by pitching after a nine-day layoff or the frigid temperatures and strong winds at Yankee Stadium. New York has won 22 of the past 30 times Sabathia has started, including 6-1 during his last seven road outings. The Yankees have won eight of their last 12 road games overall. The over is 14-5-1 the past 20 times the Yankees have played the Angels in Los Angeles.
The Under is 19-11 this season in games Jerry Layne has been the home plate umpire in, including going under in 6 of his last seven.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5
Angels: The Angels have won 14 of their last 19 home games when facing a left-handed starter. Los Angeles has lost 12 of its last 17 playoff games, however. The Angels 5-4 11-inning victory on Monday did end a six-game ALCS losing streak. Scott Kazmir has made four career starts at Angel Stadium, three since joining the team on Aug. 28 after being traded from Tampa Bay. His ERA during these outings is 3.16. Kazmir has been tough on the Yankees going 6-5 in 15 career starts with a 2.67 ERA in 87 2/3 innings. The southpaw had a 1.71 ERA for the Angels in 36 1/3 innings during the regular season. Kazmir had his least effective start for the Angels in Game 3 of his team’s opening playoff series against Boston. Kazmir yielded five earned runs in six innings allowing five hits and three walks at Fenway Park.
The Under is 16-5-1 in the Angels’ last 22 games versus a left-handed starter.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 4 (UNDER - Total of the Day)