Wednesday's Best Mound Matchup
C.J. Wilson, Texas Rangers vs. CC Sabathia New York Yankees
C.J. Wilson (16-8, 3.27)
Wilson is 1-0 with a 2.03 ERA in two playoff starts, the last of which was a no-decision against the Yankees in Game 1. He went seven innings allowing three earned runs on six hits.
But by now, Wilson isn’t intimidated by the New York Yankees’ lineup. He already faced the Bombers three times in the regular season before making the start in Game 1 of this series.
And while he hasn’t had a lot of success, at least he knows what he’s up against on Wednesday. Wilson was 0-1 with a 5.65 ERA in the regular season.
However, he thinks that he’s in better shape for this start after seeing how Cliff Lee handled the Yanks, picking up some tips about how Lee faced certain batters. Wilson also feels his time working as a closer gives him an advantage now that he’s a starter.
"The reliever thing has helped me a lot because I think I'm able to work out of those jams more naturally because I've pitched more games," he said. "As a starter you only pitch 30 games a year. As a reliever, I was pitching in 40, 50, 70 games a year. The experience of having guys on base in those pressure situations in the seventh and eighth was more frequent with that."
CC Sabathia (22-7, 3.34)
Sabathia is coming off a terrible start in Game 1 that saw him give up six hits and five runs over just four innings. Nobody saw that kind of outing coming from New York’s ace, but Sabathia said he didn’t feel right heading into the start on eight days’ rest.
"Obviously, I didn't really know what I was doing," Sabathia told reporters of Game 1’s start. "I hadn't been out there in so long, I didn't know what to correct. There were so many things - not standing tall, flying open - because typically I can have a bad inning and then find out what I'm doing wrong and get my mechanics right and be able to correct it during the game. But I just didn't really have any clue.”
This time around, Sabathia will take the hill on regular rest, but Yanks bettors have to be at least a little concerned about his recent control problems. He has walked 12 batters over his last four starts dating back to the regular season.
Sabathia is 6-4 through 12 career playoff starts with a 4.79 ERA.
Yankees MLB money line chalk in Game 5
By: Willie Bee
We last saw left-handers CC Sabathia and CJ Wilson in the opener of this year's ALCS, a strange game that was really one of those baseball affairs that was two games in one.
New York was a mid-140s MLB money line favorite on the road against Texas with an amped-up crowd behind the Rangers. Sabathia labored through four innings unable to find the strike zone. When he did, Rangers batters made him pay. Wilson, meanwhile, had it all going on early in his first-ever postseason appearance.
Then came the top of the eighth when Texas pitchers couldn't find the plate and Yankees base runners did. Final: New York 6, Texas 5.
Despite the stunning loss, Texas managed to bounce back in Game 2 for a 7-2 triumph, then took a 2-1 series lead Monday night in Game 3 behind the left arm belonging to Cliff Lee. With Game 4's results still pending, this rematch of southpaws in Game 5 could find the Yankees facing elimination.
Regardless of what happens in Game 4, Sabathia (25-11, 3.34) gets a shot to redeem himself on his own mound following his poor Game 1 performance. It will be the third time this season he and Wilson (25-10, 3.27) have met, with New York winning the first two battles.
The mindset of the two hurlers couldn't be any different heading into Game 5. Sabathia knows that his team bailed him out despite his shoddy effort. Wilson, on the other hand, could be thinking too much about not turning the game over to his bullpen and leaving the outcome up to that group.
Though Josh Hamilton is clearly the stud in the Texas lineup, the two critical hitters for Sabathia in Game 5 will be Rangers infielders Michael Young and Ian Kinsler. Young has a career .341 average (14-for-41) versus the New York ace after collecting a pair of hits off Sabathia in Game 1. Kinsler is only 2-for-10 against Sabathia, but both hits have gone into the bleachers and he's hitting .333 (9-for-27) with three homers in the postseason heading into Game 4.
Wilson has several Yankees batters to be careful with, including Nick Swisher and Derek Jeter who have each taken him deep.
Behind the plate for Game 5 should be Fieldin Culbreth who is working his fifth LCS and making his fourth appearance south of the dish in this round of the playoffs. The 18-year vet also worked the plate in Game 5 of last year's ALCS, a 7-6 Angels win over the Yankees in Anaheim.
Just like that game went 'over,' the majority of Culbreth's 2010 plate assignments ended above the total. High-side bettors were paid off 20-12-2 overall, 11-6-1 in an 8½- to 10-run span. He was fairly level on totals wagers until the final six weeks of the season when eight of his final 10 games went 'over.' His lone Yankee Stadium appearance during that time jumped the 9½-run figure (Sept. 5).
All signs point to decent weather in the Bronx on Wednesday. Always check closer to game time for the most accurate predictions, but we should see partly cloudy skies, the thermometer climbing to the mid-60s during the game, set for a 1:07 p.m. PT first pitch, and very little chance of rain.
If there is a Game 6, it will be Friday back in Texas and we'll have the preview for you here at DonBest.com. The starting pitching matchup should be a Game 2 sequel with Phil Hughes taking on Colby Lewis. First pitch is scheduled for 5:07 p.m. PT.
NOTE: W-L records displayed for starting pitchers are team records in games the pitchers start, including the postseason.
Wednesday LCS Tips
By Kevin Rogers
Each LCS heats up on Wednesday as both series continue with the underdogs throwing out left-handers. The Giants are putting a scare into the two-time defending NL Champs as the Phillies look to rebound in Game 4 following San Francisco's 3-0 shutout on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Rangers are one win away from their first ever World Series appearance. We'll start in the Bronx to see what the Bombers have left against another difficult southpaw.
Rangers at Yankees - 4:05 PM EST
Texas is proving that it belongs in the ALCS after grabbing a commanding 3-1 series lead over the defending World Champions. By all right, the Rangers should have taken all four if the bullpen didn't squander a 5-1 lead in the 6-5 series opening defeat in Arlington. The Rangers get another shot at racking CC Sabathia, while C.J. Wilson looks for his second road win of the postseason.
Sabathia (1-0, 7.20 ERA in playoffs) was knocked out in Game 1 at Texas after just four innings of work, allowing five earned runs and six hits. The big blow was Josh Hamilton's three-run homer in the first inning, but that wasn't enough to put down the Yankees in the series opener. Sabathia fell behind early in his first postseason start at Minnesota, giving up three runs the first three innings. However, the former Cy Young winner allowed one run over his next three innings as the Yankees rallied for a 6-4 victory.
Wilson (1-0, 2.03 ERA in playoffs) left the series opener with a 5-2 lead until the Rangers' bullpen gave up four runs, resulting in a New York win. The former closer owned a better ERA on the road (2.72) than at home (3.71) this season, even though Wilson finished with a 5-5 record on the highway. In the southpaw's previous start at Yankee Stadium in April, the Southern California native gave up five runs (three earned) in six innings as the Rangers fell, 5-1 as nearly $2.00 underdogs.
After getting swept in April up in the Bronx, the Rangers have won seven of the last nine meetings, while scoring five runs or more seven times. The 'over' has turned into a profitable play between these teams, cashing at a 6-1-1 run, including Tuesday's 10-3 whipping by Texas.
Phillies at Giants - 7:55 PM EST
San Francisco got what it wanted with a split of the first two games at Citizens Bank Park with Philadelphia. The Phillies had no problems with the Reds in the NLDS, but the story is different this time around with the Giants giving Charlie Manuel's team all it can handle. Matt Cain tossed a gem in Tuesday's Game 3 to give San Francisco a 2-1 series lead going into Wednesday's pivotal Game 4.
Joe Blanton (9-6, 4.82 ERA) makes his first start of the postseason, as the former Oakland A's righty has saved his best outings for the end. The Phillies are 7-0 in Blanton's last seven starts, and 9-1 his previous 10 dating back to mid-August. Blanton may be a bit cold as he last took the mound in a one-inning relief appearance at Atlanta on October 3, allowing four hits and two earned runs. The veteran turned in a terrific effort against the Giants on August 18, scattering eight hits and two earned runs in 6.1 innings of an 8-2 triumph.
The Giants counter with rookie Madison Bumgarner (1-0, 3.00 ERA in playoffs), who picked up the series-clinching win over the Braves in the NLDS. Bumgarner allowed six hits and two earned runs in six innings to eliminate Atlanta, while Cody Ross added a pair of RBI's to lift San Francisco to the NLCS. The 21-year old fared better on the road (7-3, 2.00 ERA) than at AT&T Park (1-3, 4.60 ERA), which will be a point of concern for Giants' backers in Game 4.
The Phillies own a spectacular 9-0 record their last nine road games against left-handed starting pitchers since the start of August. Philadelphia is not prone to losing consecutive games, going 8-2 the previous 10 games off a defeat. San Francisco has fared well when facing right-handed starters, winning eight of the last 11 in this spot.
vegasinsider.com
MLB Playoffs
Wednesday, October 20
Giants are 5-4 vs Phillies this year, holding Phils to three or less runs in all five wins; Philly scored 6+ runs in their wins. Blanton's last start was three weeks ago, but Phillies won his last seven starts (3-0, 2.77 in his last four). He beat Giants 8-2 August 18 in Philly (two runs in 6.1 IP). Bumgarner is 3-0, 1.50 in his last three starts; he didn't pitch against the Phillies this year. Shadows will be factor in game with first pitch around 5pm local time.
Rangers scored 16 runs in last 10 innings; they've outscored Bronx 30-11 in series. Wilson is 2-2, 3.38 in his last six starts; he gave up three runs in 7+ innings in Game 1. Sahathia is 3-2, 5.16 in his last seven starts; he allowed five runs in five IP in Game 1 of series. Home team is 1-8 in Texas games this postseason (Rangers are 5-0 on road). Neither closer pitched in yesterday's game.
Tips and Trends
Texas Rangers at New York Yankees
RANGERS: Texas is 1 win away from their first ever World Series. The Rangers shocked the world yesterday, beating the Yankees 10-3 SU behind 4 home runs in the final few innings. It was a shocking power display usually reserved for the home Bronx Bombers. Texas has yet to lose on the road during this postseason, amassing a perfect 5-0 record. Texas is +2.29 and -16.02 both SU and on the RL respectively this season. The Rangers will send their 2nd best pitcher to the mound today in C.J. Wilson. Wilson is 16-8 SU this season, with an ERA of 3.27 and a WHIP of 1.22 this year. The Rangers are 10-3 in their last 13 games against the American League East. The Rangers are 12-4 in their last 16 games against a team with a winning record. Texas is 6-1 in Wilson's last 7 starts against the American League East. The Rangers are 8-2 in Wilson's last 10 starts against a team with a winning record. Texas is 15-5 in Wilson's last 20 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Rangers are 6-2 in Wilson's last 8 road starts.
Rangers are 5-0 last 5 road games against a left-handed starter.
Under is 4-1 last 5 road games against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 2
YANKEES: (-172, O/U 8.5) In a shocking turn of events, New York finds themselves down 3-1 in their best of 7 ALCS with the Rangers. Flat out, the Rangers have outplayed the Yankees from start to finish in nearly every game this series. New York is facing elimination today, so they have absolutely no margin for error. The Yankees are -4.37 and +10.26 units both SU and on the RL respectively this season. Ace lefty C.C. Sabathia will make the critical home start today for the Yankees. Sabathia is 22-7 SU with an ERA of 3.34 and a WHIP of 1.22 this season. The Yankees are 8-2 in their last 10 playoff home games. New York is 1-5 in their last 6 games against the American League West. The Yankees are 11-2 in Sabathia's last 13 home starts against a team with a winning record. The Yankees are 13-3 in Sabathia's last 16 starts against the American League West. New York is 21-5 in Sabathia's last 26 home starts overall. The Yankees are 22-7 in Sabathia's last 29 starts with 4 days of rest.
Yankees are 3-10 last 13 games against a left-handed starter.
Over is 7-1 last 8 games against a left-handed starter.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 3 (UNDER-Total of the Day)
Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants
PHILLIES: Philadelphia is trailing in the postseason for the first time this year. The Phillies need to bounce back in a hurry, especially against a rookie pitcher in the postseason. Philadelphia struggled offensively in Game 3, failing to score a single run. Considering they scored 9 runs in the first 2 games of this series, they are more than confident in their ability to bounce back. The Phillies are +10.92 and +1.93 units both SU and on the RL respectively this season. Veteran right hander Joe Blanton will take the road mound tonight in crucial Game 4. Blanton is 9-6 with an ERA of 4.82 and a WHIP of 1.42 this season. The Phillies are 9-0 in their last 9 road games against a left-handed starter. The Phillies are 39-13 in their last 52 games against a team with a winning record. Philadelphia is 37-14 in their last 51 games against the National League West. The Phillies are 4-0 in Blanton's last 4 road starts overall. Philadelphia is 5-0 in Blanton's last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Phillies are 5-0 in Blanton's last 5 starts against the National League West. The Phillies are 10-1 in Blanton's last 11 starts against a team with a winning record.
Phillies are 11-1 last 12 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%.
Over is 12-4-2 last 18 playoff games overall.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 5 (SIDE of the Day)
GIANTS: (-115, O/U 8) San Francisco has taken a 2-1 series lead in the NLCS behind yet another great pitching performance. Matt Cain took his turn yesterday, pitching 7 strong innings and now allowing a single run over 2 hits. The Giants are 2 wins away from a World Series thanks to arguably the deepest pitching staff in baseball. San Francisco is +17.85 and -1.74 units both SU and on the RL overall this year. The homefield advantage for Game 3 was huge, as the San Francisco crowd showed up in a big way. Rookie left hander Madison Bumgarner will make the start in Game 4 tonight, as he is 8-6 with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.30 this season. The Giants are 4-1 in their last 5 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. San Francisco is 6-2 in their last 8 League Championship games. The Giants are 5-11 in their last 16 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Giants are 5-2 in their last 7 games on grass. San Francisco is 8-3 in Bumgarner's last 11 starts overall.
Giants are 9-3 last 12 home games against a right-handed starter.
Under is 13-4 last 17 home games overall.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 3
Sabathia tries to keep Yankees season alive
By: Tim Walsh
TEXAS RANGERS at NEW YORK YANKEES
ALCS Game 5, Texas leads series 3-1
Wednesday, 4:05 p.m. EDT, Line: New York -170, Texas +160, Total: 8.5
If the Yankees are to continue their season past Wednesday they’ll need a big-time performance from CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 ERA) who gets the ball in Game 5. He’ll be opposed by C.J. Wilson (15-8, 3.35 ERA). The two left-handers squared off in Game 1 of the series, a 6-5 New York victory.
Sabathia struggled in the series opener, going four innings and allowing five runs on six hits while walking four and striking out three. The offense bailed him out with a five-run eighth inning as the Yankees erased a 5-0 deficit en route to the win. In his two playoff starts this year, Sabathia’s ERA is a hefty 7.20. Wednesday marks his first home postseason start this year and Sabathia pitched well at Yankee Stadium in 2010, going 11-2 with a 3.00 ERA.
Wilson pitched well enough to win Game 1, allowing three runs on six hits over seven innings. He’s pitched well lately too, going 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA over his last three starts, which includes a 1-0 record and a 2.03 ERA in two playoff starts. He’s also been strong on road this season, going 5-5 with a 2.72 ERA (including postseason). The Rangers have won six of his past eight road starts.
The FoxSheets tend to believe that Texas will close out the series Wednesday:
Play On - Any team (TEXAS) - when leading in a playoff series. (61-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.3%, +37.6 units. Rating = 4*).
Giants favored to grab 3-1 series advantage
By: Tim Walsh
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES at SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
NLCS Game 4, San Francisco leads series 2-1, Wednesday, 7:55 p.m. EDT
Line: San Francisco -115, Philadelphia +105, Total: 8
San Francisco looks to take a commanding three-games-to-one lead when it sends Madison Bumgarner (7-6, 3.00) to the mound in Game 4. Philadelphia counters with Joe Blanton (9-6, 4.82 ERA).
Bumgarner picked up the win in the series-clinching Game 4 of the NLDS against Atlanta, throwing six innings and allowing two runs on six hits while striking out five. The southpaw is 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA over his past three starts. Bumgarner struggled a bit at home this year, going 1-3 with a 4.60 ERA. By contrast, his ERA on the road during the regular season was 1.91. Wednesday marks his first career start against Philadelphia.
Blanton makes his first playoff start of the year in Game 4. The right-hander hasn’t pitched since September 29 where he went seven innings, surrendering only an unearned run and three hits in a 7-1 win over the Nationals. The Phillies have won Blanton’s past seven starts and 10 of his past 11 outings. He struggled a bit on the road this year, going 4-4 with a 5.31 ERA. Blanton hasn’t fared very well against the Giants in his career either, taking a 2-3 mark and a 4.73 ERA into Wednesday’s matchup. However, his lone 2010 start against San Francisco was encouraging. Blanton picked up the win after scattering eight hits and two runs over 6.1 innings.
The FoxSheets continue to like San Francisco:
Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SAN FRANCISCO) - cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 5 games against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings. (125-78 over the last 5 seasons.) (61.6%, +49.3 units. Rating = 3*).