Rangers vs. Giants
By Kevin Rogers
The unlikely World Series matchup between the Rangers and Giants begins on Wednesday in San Francisco as both Western Division champions look to finish off this season hoisting the trophy. The Rangers play in their first-ever Fall Classic, while the Giants go for their first championship since 1954 when the franchise was in New York.
Texas will be a sentimental favorite among baseball fans after knocking out the big bad Yankees in the ALCS, 4-2. The Rangers were great away from Arlington, winning five of six away playoff games, including all three at Tropicana Field in the ALDS against the Rays. Ron Washington's squad wasn't scared in the ALCS against the defending champions, claiming two of three games in the Bronx, while outscoring the Yanks 18-3 in two road victories.
San Francisco wasn't given much of a chance by everyone outside of the Bay Area in the NLCS against Philadelphia. The Phillies were set to make their third straight World Series appearance, but Bruce Bochy's feisty club won two games at Citizens Bank Park, including the Game 6 clincher last Saturday night, 3-2. The Giants have played much better on the road than at home in the postseason, winning four of five away games. San Francisco still owned a respectable 3-2 mark at AT&T Park, but scored three runs or less three times at home.
Each club will send out a former Cy Young winner in the series opener on Wednesday night as Cliff Lee will oppose Tim Lincecum. Lee has been nothing short of tremendous in this postseason with a 3-0 record and ERA of 0.75 in three starts. Past a shaky first inning against the Rays in the ALDS opener, Lee owns an amazing 34/1 strikeout to walk ratio in the postseason. The Rangers' southpaw struck out at least 10 batters in all three playoff starts, and has done so in five of his last six postseason appearances dating back to 2009 with the Phillies.
Lee is no stranger to pitching in the Fall Classic as he won both starts against the Yankees last season as a member of the Phillies. His best outing came on the road in the series opener as nearly a $1.70 underdog, scattering six hits and striking out 10 in a complete game.
Lincecum began the postseason with a complete-game gem against the Braves, striking out 14 and allowing two hits in a 1-0 shutout. The diminutive right-hander split a pair of starts against the Phillies, tossing seven innings each time, but was dealt a loss in Game 5 of the NLCS, 4-2. The Giants are just 10-9 in Lincecum's 19 home starts this season, while five of his last six outings at AT&T Park have finished 'under' the total.
Thursday's Game 2 features C.J. Wilson and Matt Cain on the mound with both starters making their World Series debuts. Wilson had his worst outing of the postseason his last time out, allowing six hits and six runs (five earned) in five innings of a 7-2 loss in Game 5 of the ALCS at New York. Prior to that start, the Texas left-hander put together a pair of quality starts, including a two-hit performance in 6.2 innings of a 6-0 shutout at Tampa Bay. The Rangers have profited in the 'under' department in Wilson's road starts, hitting in 11 of 16 away outings.
Cain outdueled Cole Hamels in his lone NLCS start, beating the Phillies, 3-0 in Game 3. The San Francisco right-hander gave up two hits in seven innings, while escaping several jams to pick up his ninth home victory of the season. Cain has not allowed an earned run in three of his previous four home outings, while beating the Rangers in his lone career start against Texas last June.
Exact Games Props from Sportsbook.com
Giants 4 Games - Win +1500
Giants 5 Games - Win +600
Giants 6 Games - Win +450
Giants 7 Games - Win +400
Rangers 4 Games - Win +800
Rangers 5 Games - Win +400
Rangers 6 Games - Win +350
Rangers 7 Games - Win +500
VI's Chris David believes that digging deeper there are better opportunities to cash, "Rather than look at the series price, gamblers could have more value looking at the Exact Game Props. Pro baseball enthusiasts that have followed the “Fall Classic” haven’t been exactly treated to classics. Over the last seven years, none of the World Series has seen a decisive Game 7 and five of them were over in five games ore less, which includes three sweeps. Ironically, the last World Series to go seven games was in 2004 when the Anaheim Angels beat the San Francisco Giants 4-3."
David says there is good value in taking this series to go back to San Francisco, "Does this year’s matchup go the distance? As per the above table, the odds are a lot higher than taking the Rangers or Giants on the series price. Even taking Texas or San Francisco to win in six has value. The biggest longshot is the sweep by either club, but as mentioned above, they’re very doable."
"If you’re looking to strike it big with another WS prop, then look at the World Series Most Valuable Player wager. Position players usually get more notice but this postseason has been all about pitching and the value on players like Lee (+500) and Lincecum (+800) seem juicy. Also, closer Brian Wilson (+1000) of the Giants could be worth a look as well," David notes from the individual awards perspective.
The Rangers are listed as a $1.25 road favorite in the series opener on Wednesday, while the total is set at 5 ½. The game will be televised nationally on FOX at 8:00 PM EDT.
vegasinsider.com
Lincecum versus Lee in MLB betting classic
By: Michael Robinson
The Texas Rangers and San Francisco Giants begin the World Series on Wednesday night, with each team sending its revered ace to the mound.
Bookmaker.com has Texas as 125 road favorites with a tiny total of 5 ½-runs. The Rangers are 140 ‘chalk’ to win the Series, with San Francisco 120 underdogs.
The Rangers are playing in their first World Series in franchise history. The Giants last won the Fall Classic in 1954 when playing in New York. They’ve lost three times in the World Series since moving west in 1958, the most recent in 2002 (Anaheim Angels).
Texas’ starter on Wednesday is Cliff Lee. He went 12-9 in the regular season with a 3.18 ERA. Lee was acquired from Seattle in July and was pedestrian (4-6, 3.98 ERA) by his standards in 15 starts.
However, the impending free agent wasn’t acquired just to win regular season games. Lee was brought in due to a 4-0 record (1.56 ERA) in the playoffs last year for Philly, including two World Series wins over the Yankees.
The 32-year-old lefty has increased his legend status this postseason (3-0, .75 ERA). He out-dueled Tampa Bay ace David Price twice on the road in the ALDS, winning the decisive Game 5.
Lee was delayed to Game 3 of the ALCS at New York and responded with eight scoreless innings and just two-hits. Texas is 5-1 on the road in the playoffs, thanks greatly to its ace.
San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum didn’t have the regular season (16-10, 3.43 ERA) fans were accustomed to after back-to-back Cy Young awards. He particularly struggled in August (0-5, 7.82 ERA) before bouncing back in September (5-1, 1.94 ERA) to help secure the NL West over San Diego.
Lincecum is not used to being an underdog. It happened just a few times this regular season and only once at home. That was against Colorado and Ubaldo Jimenez on Sept. 1. San Francisco won 2-1 as small 105 ‘dogs.
The 26-year-old righty started the NLDS with a complete-game home shutout (1-0) over Atlanta. He had 14 strikeouts while allowing just two hits in the mesmerizing performance.
Lincecum squared off against Philly’s Roy Halladay in Games 1 and 5 of the NLCS. He out-pitched Halladay in the opener (4-3) despite being a 153 road ‘dog. He got out-dueled (4-2) as a 108 home ‘dog in the second game. He’s 2-1 with a 1.93 ERA overall this postseason.
This is the lowest total Lee has seen all season. The ‘under’ is 2-1 in his playoff starts, but would have been 3-0 if not for a six-run, ninth inning explosion against New York.
The ‘total’ was 5 ½ for Lincecum’s two NLCS starts and the ‘over’ went 2-0. The ‘under’ is 5-1 in his last six home starts overall.
Lee hasn’t pitched since Oct. 18, so the layoff is a concern. Lincecum last started on Oct. 21 and pitched 1/3 of an inning in relief in Game 6 of the NLCS (Oct. 23).
Texas will start DH Vladimir Guerrero in right field for Game 1 and likely Game 2. The Rangers are scoring 5.36 runs per game in the playoffs (6.33 in the ALCS) after 4.86 in the regular season.
Giants’ center fielder Andres Torres is probable for the opener due to a hip injury. NLCS MVP Cody Ross has been dealing with right forearm pain, but it hasn’t bothered him with four playoff homers. The Giants playoff scoring (3.0) is below their regular season mark (4.30), but they’re getting key hits when needed.
These teams last met in 2009 with the Giants sweeping a home series. They’re 9-0 in the last nine home meetings between the teams and 11-1 overall. The ‘under’ is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in San Fran.
First pitch on Wednesday is 4:57 p.m. (PT). Weather will be clear and in the upper 50s.
Thursday’s Game 2 has rain in the forecast. The Giants are moving Matt Cain back up in the rotation over Jonathan Sanchez. Texas will counter with C.J. Wilson over Colby Lewis.
Tips and Trends
Texas Rangers at San Francisco Giants
RANGERS: (-124, O/U 5.5) Texas is playing in their first World Series in franchise history. This Rangers team, from the organization down to the players, have felt all season long that they are a team of destiny. There isn't a single expert that can doubt them at this point. Texas earned their World Series berth with a dominating series win over the New York Yankees. Texas is 97-76 SU this season, including 44-43 SU on the road this season. The Rangers are +2.38 and -16.42 units both SU and on the RL respectively this season. The biggest reason for the Rangers being confident tonight is because of ace Cliff Lee. Lee has never lost in the postseason, as he is 7-0 with a 1.26 lifetime. Lee is 15-9 SU overall this season, with an ERA of 2.93 and a WHIP of 0.96 this year. Playing in San Francisco will leave the Rangers without a DH, meaning Lee will have to bat. The Rangers are 7-1 in their last 8 road games against a team with a winning record. The Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 playoff road games. Texas is 13-3 in their last 16 interleague games overall. The Rangers are 4-13 in their last 17 games against the National League West. Texas is 4-0 in Lee's last 4 starts overall. Texas is 4-1 in Lee's last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Rangers are 4-1 in Lee's last 5 starts against a team with a winning record.
Rangers are 8-0 last 8 interleague road games against a right-handed starter.
Under is 7-1 last 8 interleague road games against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 2
GIANTS: San Francisco has had an incredible season, and it's being capped off with their 4th ever World Series berth. The Giants have never won a World Series in San Francisco, going 0-3 overall. With this amazing pitching staff, anything is possible. The National League Champions limited a powerful Philadelphia lineup to a .216 batting average during the NLCS. San Francisco is 99-73 SU overall this year, including 52-34 SU at home. The Giants are +19.42 and -3.38 units both SU and on the RL overall this season. Ace Tim Lincecum will make the start in Game 1 of the World Series, as he is 18-11 SU with an ERA of 3.28 and a WHIP of 1.23 this season. The Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home underdog. San Francisco is 4-1 in their last 5 interleague home games against a left-handed starter. The Giants are 6-2 in their last 8 playoff games overall. The Giants are 41-19 in their last 60 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. San Francisco is 4-1 in Lincecum's last 5 starts as an underdog. The Giants are 4-1 in Lincecum's last 5 starts against the American League West. San Francisco is 36-15 in Lincecum's last 51 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Giants are 11-5 in Lincecum's last 16 starts with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
Giants are 7-0 last 7 games following an off day.
Over is 7-3 last 10 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Key Injuries - CF Andres Torres (hip) is questionable.
Projected Score: 3 (SIDE of the Day)