NATIONAL LEAGUE
Arizona (4-3) at L.A. Dodgers (3-4)
The Dodgers continue a three-game home series against the division-rival Diamondbacks when they send Chad Billingsley (1-0, 1.69 ERA) to the hill opposite Arizona’s Rodrigo Lopez (1-0, 1.50).
Los Angeles opened its 2010 home schedule with Tuesday’s 9-5 win over Arizona, getting home runs from Manny Ramirez, Casey Blake, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. Going back to the second game of last year’s National League Championship Series, the Dodgers are still in a 3-7 funk, but nine of those contests were on the road prior to Monday’s home opener. At Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles has won six of its last seven, including going 5-0 at home against right-handed starters.
Arizona, which started the season with a 4-2 homestand, is now just 8-22 in its last 30 road games, including 5-17 on the road against right-handed starters. The DBacks have also dropped four in a row in the second game of a series.
The Dodgers won 11 of the 18 meetings with Arizona last year, and going back to 2008, they’re on a 17-7 roll in this rivalry, going 12-3 in the last 15 clashes at Dodger Stadium.
Lopez’s DBacks debut was a success, as he held the Pirates to a run on six hits over six innings, rolling to a 9-1 home victory. The veteran right-hander pitched in just seven big-league games last year, all with Philadelphia, going 3-1 with a 5.70 ERA, and he’s made just 21 major-league appearances since the start of 2007. He’s faced the Dodgers five times (four starts), going 1-2 with a 3.18 ERA, including 0-1 with a 4.00 ERA in two games (one start) in Los Angeles.
Billingsley struggled in the second half of last season, going 3-7 with a 5.20 ERA in 13 starts after the All-Star break, but he had a strong 2010 debut Thursday, limiting the Pirates to one run on five hits in 5 1/3 innings en route to an easy 10-2 road victory. Still, the Dodgers are just 2-6 in Billingsley’s last eight starts dating to last year and 2-5 in his last seven at home, but they’ve taken 13 of his last 18 outings versus the A.L. West.
Billingsley went 8-6 with a 4.01 ERA in 16 games (15 starts) at Dodger Stadium last year, and he was 1-1 with a 3.50 ERA in three starts against Arizona. For his career, the right-hander is 7-5 with a 3.35 ERA in 15 games (13 starts) against the Diamondbacks. L.A. won four of the last five matchups, with Billingsley pitching at least six innings in all five games (2.59 ERA).
Arizona has stayed low in six of seven on Wednesday and eight of 10 on the road against right-handed starters. Meanwhile, L.A. has topped the total in five straight overall and five of six versus right-handed starters, but otherwise the under is 10-2-2 in its last 14 on Wednesday, and with Billingsley on the mound, the under is on runs of 5-2-1 overall and 4-0-2 on Wednesday.
Finally, even though Monday’s game soared over the posted total of 7½ the under is 11-4-3 in the last 17 battles in this rivalry, including 4-1-1 in the last six at Dodger Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Chicago White Sox (3-5) at Toronto (6-2)
One day after Blue Jays lefty Ricky Romero nearly twirled a no-hitter, Toronto sends Brandon Morrow (0-0, 9.00) to the hill in the third game of a four-game set against the White Sox, who will counter with lefty John Danks (0-0, 1.50) at the Rogers Centre.
Romero took a no-hitter into the eighth inning Tuesday, but he hit A.J. Pierzynski with a pitch to open the frame then gave up a two-run homer to former Blue Jay Alex Rios. Romero was lifted after the homer and finished giving up the two runs on one hit while walking two and striking out 12. Toronto, which lost Monday’s series opener 8-7 in 10 innings, is now on positive runs of 8-2 dating to the end of last season, 5-2 versus southpaw starters and 5-1 in the third game of a series.
The White Sox had a modest two-game winning streak halted last night, and they’re now just 3-15 in their last 18 games against the Blue Jays and 1-11 in their last 12 battles in Canada. Additionally, Chicago is in slumps of 9-19 on the road against right-handed starters, 7-20 in the third game of a series and 1-4 on Wednesday.
Danks gave up two runs (one earned) on eight hits in six innings Friday against the Twins, but it wasn’t good enough as Chicago fell 4-3 at home. The southpaw has pitched at least six innings and surrendered three earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 11 outings, but Chicago is just 5-6 during this stretch (1-4 in the last five). On the positive end, the Pale Hose are 4-1 in Danks’ last five versus A.L. East clubs and 5-2 in his last seven Wednesday efforts.
Danks was actually better on the road last year (8-4, 3.26 ERA) than at home (5-7, 4.48 ERA). However, like his team, Danks has struggled against Toronto, going 0-2 with a 7.11 ERA in three career starts, all in Canada. He lost 4-3 in 2007, 5-2 in 2008 and 8-3 in 2009.
Morrow got torched for five runs on four hits and five walks in five innings in his Blue Jays debut on Friday in Baltimore. However, his offense bailed him out, as Toronto rallied for a 7-6 victory. The right-hander spent his first three big-league seasons in Seattle, pitching mostly in relief (132 appearances but just 16 starts). He’s doesn’t have a decision in six career appearances (one start) against the White Sox, allowing three runs (two earned) in 10 innings (1.80 ERA).
Morrow also has pitched a total of five scoreless innings in five appearances at the Rogers Center, allowing just one hit, walking three and striking out seven.
It’s been all “unders” for the White Sox lately, including 35-16-2 overall, 35-16-2 on the road, 20-6-1 as a road underdog, 11-5 versus the A.L. East, 22-5-1 on Wednesday and 35-16-3 against right-handed starters. Also, with Danks hurling, the under is on runs of 9-3 overall and 4-1 on the road. Meanwhile, Toronto is on “over” stretches of 6-2-1 at home, 6-2-1 as a favorite, 5-1 against the A.L. East and 9-4-2 against left-handed starters. Also, the over is 6-2 in Morrow’s last eight starts going back to last season with the Mariners.
Lastly, the over is 8-4 in the last 12 meetings in this rivalry, though the under is still 8-3 in the last 11 clashes at the Rogers Centre, with Tuesday’s contest falling short of the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TORONTO
Wednesday Wagers
By Brian Edwards
After a limited card on Monday and Tuesday, gamblers get back to a full slate of MLB games on Wednesday, including six games in the afternoon. Let’s take a look at a pair of key matchups before touching on a few other points regarding the rest of the card.
Angels at Yankees
After raising their first World Series banner at the new stadium, the Yankees went out and beat the Angels by a 7-5 count Tuesday in a business man’s special. They hooked up their backers as minus-200 favorites, with the 12 combined runs soaring ‘over’ the 10-run total.
Los Angeles (2-6, -573) is all alone in the cellar of the American League West, 3 ½ games back of the division-leading A’s. The Angels have only played one road game, yesterday’s loss in the Bronx.
New York (5-2, +349) is in second place in the AL East, one-half game behind the loop-leading Blue Jays. Joe Girardi will give the ball to Javier Vasquez, who got absolutely shelled in his first outing of the year. The veteran righty gave up eight earned runs in just 5 2/3 innings of work.
Vasquez (0-1, 12.71 ERA) has made four career starts against the Halos, going 0-1 with a 2.89 ERA.
Joel Pineiro (0-1, 4.50) owns a 2-3 record and 3.43 ERA in eight lifetime assignments against the Yankees. The righty’s debut with the Angels didn’t go as scripted, as he gave up three earned runs in six-plus innings of a 10-1 loss to the Twins.
The ‘over’ is 6-1 overall for the Yanks, 1-0 in their home games. As for the Angels, they have watched the ‘over’ go 4-3-1.
As of early this morning, most books were listing the Bronx Bombers as minus-210 favorites with a total of 10 ‘under’ (minus-115). Gamblers can pass on the expensive straight price and go the run-line route (minus 1 ½ runs) for a minus-110 price.
Braves at Padres
Atlanta (3-4, -199) continues its West-coast road swing tonight in the second game of this three-game set in Southern California. The Braves got pounded by a 17-2 count Monday before both teams took yesterday off. They are currently tied for third place in the NL East with the Nationals, three games off the pace being set by Philadelphia.
Bobby Cox will give the starting nod to Tommy Hanson (0-1, 3.38) in this spot. The right-hander pitched well in a 2-0 loss to the Cubs, giving up four hits and a pair of solo homers. Hanson is now 11-5 with a 2.91 career ERA in 22 career starts. He won his only start against the Padres last season, giving up two earned runs in six innings of work.
San Diego (3-4, -3) is in a last-place tie with the Dodgers in the NL West, 2 ½ games back of division-leading San Francisco. The Padres lost two of three at Arizona and at Colorado before clubbing Atlanta in the series opener.
Clayton Richard (0-1, 3.86) took the loss against the Rockies in his season debut, but he worked seven innings and gave up just three earned runs. The lefty didn’t fare well in his lone career start against the Braves, surrendering six runs and nine hits in merely 2 1/3 innings of work.
After coming to San Diego from the White Sox in a late-season trade last year, Richard went 4-0 with a 2.00 ERA in six home starts at Petco Park.
-As of early this morning, most books had the Braves favored at minus-140 odds. They were plus-120 on the run line (risk $100 to win $120). The total was seven ‘over’ (minus-115).
The ‘under’ is 5-2 overall for the Padres, while the ‘over’ is 4-2-1 overall for the Braves.
Atlanta scored 16 runs in its season-opening blowout win over the Cubs, but the Braves have scored just 19 combined runs in the six games since then. They have hit just six homers as a team with three of those coming from rookie sensation Jason Heyward.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Kansas City RHP Kyle Davies will get the ball today against Detroit at 1:05 p.m. Eastern. The right-hander has an abysmal 1-6 record and 5.61 ERA in eight career starts against the Tigers.
Rays LHP David Price owns a 2-0 record and 3.12 ERA in three starts against tonight’s foe, Baltimore. Tampa Bay will face the Orioles at 1:35 p.m. Eastern. Joe Maddon’s squad is a minus-140 road ‘chalk.’
The ‘over’ is an MLB-best 7-1 for both the Marlins and Pirates.
The ‘under’ is an MLB-best 5-1-1 for the Indians.
Diamond Trends - Wednesday
By Vince Akins
White Sox at Blue Jays – The White Sox are 9-0 since July 12, 2008 when John Danks starts after throwing more than 100 pitches at home for a net profit of $1020.
Astros at Cardinals – The Astros are 0-9 since September 15, 2009 after a loss in which they drew 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $1010 when playing against. The Cardinals are 0-5 since May 24, 2009 as a home 140+ favorite after a win in which their starter pitched at least 8 innings for a net profit of $900 when playing against.
Brewers at Cubs – The Cubs are 0-5 since July 28, 2009 after a win in which they allowed 5+ walks and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $710 when playing against. The Cubs are 0-6 since August 09, 2009 when Randy Wells starts after a quality start for a net profit of $790 when playing against.
Diamondbacks at Dodgers – The Diamondbacks are 1-10 since June 03, 2009 as a 140+ dog after allowing 6+ runs loss for a net profit of $850 when playing against. The Dodgers are 8-0-1 OU since July 08, 2008 when Chad Billingsley starts after winning as a home favorite in his last start for a net profit of $800 when playing the over.
Pirates at Giants – The Pirates are 1-10 since June 28, 2009 when Charlie Morton starts as a dog vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $760 when playing against. The Giants are 5-0 since September 18, 2009 when Jonathan Sanchez starts for a net profit of $530
Rangers at Indians – The Rangers are 0-5 since July 25, 2009 vs a team that has lost at least their last three games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $580 when playing against. The League is 0-6 since September 21, 2009 after a loss in which their starter pitched at least 8 innings for a net profit of $775 when playing against. The Indians are 0-6 since August 08, 2009 when Justin Masterson starts within 20 cents of pickem for a net profit of $600 when playing against.
Reds at Marlins – The Marlins are 8-0 since June 04, 2009 as a home favorite when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $800. The Marlins are 0-6 since May 05, 2009 when Christopher Volstad starts as a favorite after a quality start for a net profit of $775 when playing against.
Athletics at Mariners – The Athletics are 6-1 since July 05, 2009 when Gio Gonzalez starts after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $815. The Mariners are 0-5 since July 08, 2009 when Jason Vargas starts for a net profit of $520 when playing against.
Rays at Orioles – The Rays are 0-6 since July 01, 2009 as a favorite after playing as a favorite and it is the last game of a three game series when they won the first two for a net profit of $870 when playing against.
Braves at Padres – The Padres are 6-0 since August 01, 2009 when Clayton Richard starts at home vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $655
Nationals at Phillies – The Nationals are 0-9 since April 27, 2009 as a 140+ dog when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Phillies are 6-0 since May 30, 2009 as a 200+ favorite when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit for a net profit of $600.
Mets at Rockies – The Mets are 0-7 since September 08, 2009 as a dog when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $700 when playing against.
Royals at Tigers – The Royals are 8-0 since August 13, 2009 on the road when they are off a loss in which they held the lead for a net profit of $1040. The Royals are 6-0 since August 11, 2009 when Kyle Davies starts as a dog for a net profit of $915
Red Sox at Twins – The Red Sox are 6-0 since April 29, 2009 as a road favorite after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $600. The Twins are 6-0 since August 23, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem when they came back from a deficit to win in their starter's last start for a net profit of $640
Angels at Yankees – The Yankees are 8-0 since August 07, 2009 at home after a win in which they had 12+ hits for a net profit of $800
Tips and Trends
Houston Astros at St. Louis Cardinals
Astros: Houston is off to an embarrassing start, as they are the only winless team in the majors at 0-7. This Astros offense is anemic, as they have been shut out in 3 of their 7 games thus far. Not only is Houston without a win, but they are losing badly. The Astros have been outscored by 29 runs in their 7 games this season. Brett Myers will look to rebound from a poor 1st start, as he gave up 12 hits over 6 innings to the Giants. The Astros have struggled on the road in the past year, as they are only 16-35 in their last 51 road games. If you combine Myers bad form with the Astros poor road play, it appears highly unlikely that Houston will pick up their 1st win of the season today. The Astros are 8-24 in their last 32 games against a right-handed starter. The Astros have struggled following an off day, going 7-19 in their last 26 games in this specific role.
Astros are 0-6 last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 17-5 last 22 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Key Injuries - 1B Lance Berkman (knee) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 1
Cardinals (-203, O/U 8.5): St. Louis is expected to be a challenger for the NL crown this year, and they are off to a fast 5-2 start. The Cardinals are known for their 1-2 punch of Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, but their offense is no slouch either. The Cardinals have scored at least 5 runs in 6 of their 7 games this season. Today represents only the 2nd time during this young season that St. Louis is a favorite of -200 or more. Both times they have been listed at this high of a favorite they have faced the Astros. Brad Penny will look to get his 1st win of the season today, with hopefully a bit more offensive help. Penny was unlucky in that he was the starter for the only game the Cardinals scored less than 5 runs this season. The Cardinals are 10-2 at home the past 12 times they've hosted the Astros.
Cardinals are 22-5 last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Under is 9-4 last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Key Injuries - C Jason LaRue (hamstring) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (UNDER - Total of the Day)