NBA/MLB Combo RoundUp For 4/21
By Dan Bebe
National League
Giants @ Padres (-125) with a total of 8
Aubrey Huff is 5-for-15 with 1 HR and 4 RBI;
Pablo Sandoval is 6-for-7 with a HR and 3 RBI off Garland;
Bengie Molina is 3-for-9 off Garland.
I can't believe I'm considering backing Wellemeyer again after that tragic outing against the Dodgers, but here I stand, seriously thinking about it. Jon Garland is, as mentioned a few days back, a battler, but he's never going to dominate. He has posted a solid 2.42 ERA against the Giants in his career, so this is far from a sure thing, but the Kung Fu Panda could potentially win this game with his bat if Wellemeyer can keep it remotely close.
Colorado (-115) @ Nationals with a total of 9.5
Brad Hawpe is 2-for-6 off Lannan with a pair of RBI;
Ian Stewart has a HR off Lannan, and Tulowitzki is 2-for-4;
Nyjer Morgan is 3-for-8 off Hammel;
Ivan Rodriguez is 3-for-10 off Hammel;
Josh Willingham is 3-for-7 with a HR and an RBI off Hammel.
Numbers would really support a play on either side, and that's likely why this line is so close to a pick. Hammel has gotten off to a rocky start this year (pun intended) with an ERA of 11.42 thus far. He pitched well against the Nats in the past, but is Hammel really there, mentally and physically? Pass.
Brewers (-135) @ Pirates with a total of 8
Ryan Braun is 3-for-10 with a HR off Duke;
Prince Fielder is 9-for-27 with 2 HR and 6 RBI off Duke;
Delwyn Young is 3-for-6 off Gallardo;
Andy Laroche has 2 HR off Gallardo.
I don't think most people thought that 2 weeks into the season, Gallardo would be just a -135 favorite on the road against Pittsburgh, but his 0-2, 5.50 ERA start to the season, as well as the Pirates' hot start and Zach Duke's 2.37 ERA have given everyone a firm slap to the face. This might, however, be about as good a value as we'll get on Gallardo. I'm not sold on the play, though Duke has struggled with the Brewers, and I just wonder how long before he has a rough outing.
Cubs @ Mets (-110) with a total of 8.5
Xavier Nady is 2-for-5 with 2 RBI off Perez;
Frank Catalanotto is 6-for-20 with a HR off Silva since '05;
Alex Cora is 6-for-18 off Silva since '05;
Gary Matthews is 6-for-20 off Silva since '05.
I'm not sure where THIS Carlos Silva came from, but he's turning the clock back to the tune of a 1-0, 0.69 ERA to start 2010. Oliver Perez looked decent in his last start, or I'd be all over the Cubbies in this one. Two pitchers, almost zero predictability from start-to-start for each. Pass.
Dodgers (-130) @ Reds with a total of 8.5
Ronnie Belliard is 9-for-20 off Harang with a HR and 3 RBI;
Jamey Carroll is 4-for-12 off Harang;
Rafael Furcal is 5-for-10 with 2 RBI off Harang;
Matt Kemp is 2-for-6 with a HR and 3 RBI;
Russ Martin is 4-for-8 with 2 RBI;
Manny Ramirez and James Loney are each 2-for-5 off Harang.
Hiroki Kuroda, again, the battler. You just have to always like the effort you'll get from Kuroda, when he's healthy. He's 1-0 against Cincinnati, and the Dodgers, as we mentioned, hit pretty well in this park. I have to start with a look to the team from LA before going anywhere else.
Phillies (-145) @ Braves with a total of 7.5
Ryan Howard is batting .353 with 5 HR and 10 RBI off Hudson since '05;
Shane Victorino is 8-for-25 with 2 HR and 6 RBI off Hudson since '05;
Jayson Werth is 4-for-12 off Hudson with 3 RBI.
Roy Halladay hasn't seen much of the Braves in his solid career, but he's 1-0, 0.84 ERA against them in that brief exposure. Something a little funny about this line, though, since we know huge money is going to come in on Halladay, so why open the line at a fairly affordable -145? Something tells me this game ends up low scoring on both sides. A screwball value game, and I need more time to pull this one apart.
Marlins (-155) @ Astros with a total of 8
John Baker is 3-for-5 with an RBI off Norris;
Hanley Ramirez is 4-for-6 with a HR off Norris;
Dan Uggla is 3-for-5 with a HR off Norris;
Cody Ross is 3-for-5 off Norris;
Lance Berkman is 3-for-5 with a HR and 2 RBI off Johnson;
Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence each have a HR in 2 AB off Johnson.
Neither pitcher has a good track record against this opponent, as you can see. Johnson and Norris both seemed to start to find grooves in their last starts, or I'd recommend a look at the over. As far as the side goes, this one could end up one of about a hundred ways, though again, something tells me to just stay away.
Cardinals (-155) @ D'backs with a total of 9
Matt Holliday is 3-for-6 with a HR off Jackson;
Yadier Molina is 3-for-3 with a HR off Jackson;
Albert Pujols is 3-for-4 and Colby Rasmus is 2-for-3;
Kelly Johnson is 4-for-7 off Carpenter;
Mark Reynolds is 2-for-3, and Chris Young is 3-for-4.
Carpenter is 4-0, 1.79 ERA against Arizona, and Edwin Jackson is 0-2, 3.38 ERA against the Cards. I'll tell you what's surprising is the high total of 9. That is either a gift, or the oddsmakers telling us more runs are coming in this one than we think. Another line worth chewing on just a bit longer.
American League
Royals @ Blue Jays (-115) with a total of 7.5
Jason Kendall is 3-for-5 off Marcum;
Lyle Overbay is 7-for-15 with 2 HR and 5 RBI;
Adam Lind is 2-for-5 with a HR.
The Royals bullpen continues to make backing this team about as fun as a trip to the dentist, and Shaun Marcum's 3-1, 1.09 ERA numbers against Kansas City lifetime certainly give us one more reason to think Toronto. Can Greinke get things straightened out? He has just a 3.57 ERA, but it doesn't feel the same, and that constant struggle to make sure he goes ultra deep in games has to take a mental toll. It's a heck of a deal on a great pitcher, but I prefer the Jays, here.
Rangers @ Red Sox (-185) with a total of 8.5
Adrian Beltre is 4-for-10 with a HR and 3 RBI off Harrison;
Mike Lowell is 2-for-3 off Harrison;
Kevin Youkilis is 1-for-3 off Harrison with a HR.
Interestingly, all these young Rangers haven't seen a whole heck of a lot of Beckett, but not much here makes me think either side is a good value. Boston is way too expensive with how poorly they're playing, but Texas isn't playing much better. Pass.
Indians @ Twins (-175) with a total of 8.5
Asdrubal Cabrera is 3-for-4 with a HR and 2 RBI off Liriano;
Joe Mauer is 6-for-12 with a HR and 4 RBI off Huff;
Justin Morneau is 4-for-10 with 2 RBI off Huff;
Denard Span is 4-for-11 off Huff;
Delmon Young is 3-for-7, Alexi Casilla is 2-for-4, and J.J. Hardy is 1-for-2 with a HR off Huff.
Liriano and Huff have each started 2010 with a solid couple of appearances, and I know full well that this is a bad time to back Liriano just because of the value going kaput off his dominant showing against the Red Sox. Pass.
Rays @ White Sox (-115) with a total of 8.5
Carlos Pena is 6-for-17 with 4 RBI off Buerhle since '05;
B.J. Upton is 6-for-20 off Buerhle.
The White Sox haven't seen Wade Davis, but they can be sure to get a pretty steady diet of heat, at least at first. Buerhle, as we all know, is a vastly superior pitcher at home, and he's 8-2 lifetime against the Rays, so this isn't a team that generally gives him fits. This is a pretty nice price on one of the best home pitchers in baseball, and one that can go deep in a game, which adds value because of the lack of bullpen in a great many of Buerhle's games. Lean to Sox.
Tigers @ Angels (-165) with a total of 9
Carlos Guillen is 8-for-14 off Weaver with 2 RBI;
Miguel Cabrera is 3-for-8 with a HR and 3 RBI;
Magglio Ordonez is 6-for-10 off Weaver since '05;
Bobby Abreu is 7-for-12 off Bonderman with 3 RBI;
Torii Hunter is 7-for-21 off Bonderman since '05;
Maicer Izturis is 3-for-7 off Bonderman;
Hideki Matsui is 8-for-16 with a HR and 6 RBI off Bonderman.
With almost anyone else on the mound, I'd say this is a game the Tigers could steal, given Weaver's 7.36 career ERA against the Tigers, but Bonderman could very well just get absolutely killed. I might take a peek at the over if Detroit could hit on the road. Certainly don't like Angels, have a slight feeling of warmth about Detroit, but probably not strong enough to take a flier.
Yankees (-145) @ Athletics with a total of 8.5
There is almost no historical data on this game, so we're going off recent results. Phil Hughes gave up 2 runs in 5 innings against the Angels in a decent starting debut for 2010. Ben Sheets has rewarded the A's giving him a contract with a 2.65 ERA thus far in 2010, but the Yankees are always going to be just a little tougher. I do happen to think there's a little value in the home team, as New York rarely brings their top game in early-season long road trips West, though we all know what the Yanks have done to the A's this decade.
Orioles @ Mariners (-200) with a total of 7
Cesar Izturis is a perfect 3-for-3 off King Felix;
Nick Markakis is 10-for-22 off Hernandez with 5 RBI;
Miguel Tejada is 5-for-14 with 1 RBI off Hernandez;
Ty Wigginton is 3-for-5 with a HR and 2 RBI;
Franklin Gutierrez is 4-for-11 with a HR and 5 RBI off Millwood;
Casey Kotchman is 5-for-15 with 3 HR and 7 RBI off Millwood;
Ichiro is batting .424 in 66 AB against Millwood since '05.
Kevin Millwood has never liked facing Seattle, and Hernandez hasn't really enjoyed Baltimore. This total of 7 might be too low, if either of these guys isn't right on their game, though Baltimore's issues with batting with RISP is brutal. Still, 7 runs is such a low number, and both of these big name pitchers are keeping it very low. I might explore the over before either side.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia (8-5) at Atlanta (8-5)
Roy Halladay (3-0, 1.12 ERA) shoots for his fourth win in a Phillies uniform in as many tries when he matches up against the surging Braves and Tim Hudson (1-0, 2.84) as this three-game series between N.L. East rivals continues at Turner Field.
Atlanta scored its second straight walk-off come-from-behind victory last night, following up Sunday’s 4-3 win over Colorado with a 4-3, 10-inning triumph over the Phillies. Troy Glaus and rookie Jason Heyward hit back-to-back two-out home runs to erase a 3-0 deficit in the bottom of the ninth inning, then Nate McClouth led off the bottom of the 10th with a solo blast to seal the win.
The Braves have won four of their last five (following a 1-4 slump), and they’re on additional runs 16-6 after a victory, 21-8 in the second game of a series and 4-1 on Wednesday. However, Bobby Cox’s crew ended a six-game losing skid to N.L. East foes with Tuesday’s victory
After exploding for 77 runs in its first 10 games (winning eight of them), Philadelphia has been held to a total of four runs in its last three contests, losing the final two games of a weekend home series against the Marlins (5-1 and 2-0) prior to last night’s heartbreaking setback. The Phillies are still 5-2 on the road this year, and the two-time defending N.L. champs continue to sport positive trends of 6-2 against right-handed starters and 6-1 on Wednesday.
The Braves took 10 of 18 meetings with Philadelphia last year, but the Phillies are still 13-6 in their last 19 contests at Turner Field.
Halladay, acquired in an offseason trade from Toronto where he had spent his entire big-league career, has been everything the Phillies could’ve hoped for so far, giving up just four runs (three earned) over 24 innings, scoring wins over the Nationals (11-1 on the road), Astros (2-1 on the road) and Marlins (8-6 at home). Additionally, the veteran right-hander has walked just two while striking out 21. Going back to last September, Halladay has allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven consecutive starts, registering a 1.45 ERA during this stretch with three complete games.
Including his two efforts at Washington and Houston (one earned run allowed in 16 innings), Halladay is 9-4 with a 2.33 ERA in 16 road starts since the beginning of last season. He also faced Atlanta twice in interleague competition with Toronto, going 1-0 with a 0.84 ERA (one run, seven hits, two walks, eight strikeouts in 10 2/3 innings). That includes a game at Turner Field last May when Halladay scattered five hits and a walk in seven shutout innings, but failed to get a decision as the Jays lost, 1-0.
Hudson overcame some rare wildness Thursday in San Diego, issuing five walks (along with six hits) in 5 2/3 innings. However, the veteran right-hander mitigated the damage and gave up just two runs in a 6-2 victory. He’s now surrendered two runs in each of his first two starts (both on the road) along with a combined nine hits and five walks with just two strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings. Atlanta is 19-7 in Hudson’s last 26 starts following five days of rest.
Hudson, who missed half of the 2008 season and most of 2009 while recovering from reconstructive elbow surgery, made just four home starts last year, going 0-1 with a 3.12 ERA in 26 innings, and the Braves lost all four games. For his career, he’s 4-6 with a 3.79 ERA in 15 games against the Phillies, including a 9-4 home loss last year when he gave up just three runs in seven innings. Atlanta has come up empty in Hudson’s last three starts against Philadelphia, even though he’s allowed just six earned runs in 20 2/3 innings (2.61 ERA).
Despite staying under the total in their last three games, the Phillies remain on a slew of “over” runs, including 33-17-2 overall, 18-7 on the road, 8-3 versus division rivals, 4-1 on Wednesday, 19-7-2 against right-handed starters and 12-4-1 when coming off a loss.
Atlanta is 5-2 “over” in Hudson’s last seven starts, but the under is 5-1 in the team’s last six at home. Additionally, the under has cashed in eight of the last 11 meetings between these teams overall and six of the last eight at Turner Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (10-3) at Oakland (9-6)
The Yankees shoot for their sixth straight win when they continue a three-game series at the Coliseum by sending Phil Hughes (1-0, 3.60) to the hill against A’s veteran Ben Sheets (1-0, 2.65).
Alex Rodriguez hit a three-run homer while Jorge Posada and Nick Swisher each drove in a pair of runs to lead New York to a 7-3 victory in Tuesday’s series opener. The Yankees have won five in a row and eight of their last nine, and they’re 5-2 on the road to start the 2010 season. Joe Girardi’s troops enter tonight on additional positive stretches of 62-24 overall (playoffs included), 5-0 against the A.L. West, 60-24 after a victory, 55-20 against right-handed starters, 42-12 as a favorite, 20-7 as a road chalk and 45-16 on Wednesday.
Oakland has followed up a three-game overall winning streak and a six-game home winning streak with consecutive losses, including Sunday’s 8-3 home setback to Baltimore. The A’s – who remain atop the A.L. West – are still on runs of 9-5 overall, 6-2 at home, 6-3 versus righty starters and 5-1 versus right-handers at home, but they’ve lost 10 of 13 as an underdog and six straight as a home ‘dog.
New York went 7-2 against the A’s last year and has now won 12 of the last 15 meetings, going 5-2 in the last seven in Oakland.
Hughes made his first start of 2010 on Thursday, holding the Angels to two runs on three hits while walking five and striking out six in five innings of a 6-2 home win. Going back to the end of the 2008 season, Hughes has made 10 starts, holding eight of those opponents to three earned runs or less. However, he’s gone past five innings just once in his last seven starts.
Going back to last year, the Yanks are 4-1 in Hughes’ last five starts overall, 4-1 in his last five against the A.L. West and 4-0 when he starts on Wednesday. Last year, Hughes was 4-2 with a 3.50 ERA in 24 games on the road, but 2-1 with a 5.23 ERA in four starts. He’s faced the A’s three times (all out of the bullpen), giving up two hits and five walks in 4 1/3 scoreless innings.
Sheets has delivered consecutive quality outings in his first two trips to the mound in an Oakland uniform, pitching six innings in each contest. That includes Thursday’s 6-2 home win over Baltimore, with Sheets scattering five hits and three walks in six shutout innings. He’s now 1-1 with a 4.80 ERA in three career starts at the Oakland Coliseum.
Sheets’ only start against the Yankees came in a 2005 interleague game when he was with the Brewers, and he gave up two hits and five walks in seven shutout innings en route to a 2-1 home win.
The Yankees have stayed under the total in four of their last six games overall, four of their last six against the A.L. West and 16 of 23 on Wednesday. However, they remain on “over” runs of 35-16-2 on the road and 9-1 against winning teams.
Oakland is on “under” surges of 6-2 overall, 5-1 against right-handed starters, 8-3 after a defeat, 4-2 versus A.L. East opponents, 7-3 on Wednesday and 13-3 in the second game of a series. Also, both of Sheets’ starts this year have stayed below the posted total. Finally, the total has alternated in the last seven meetings between these teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
Diamond Trends - Wednesday
By Vince Akins
Tigers at Angels – The Angels are 6-0 since June 14, 2009 when Jered Weaver starts at home after more strike outs than hits allowed for a net profit of $600.
Marlins at Astros – The Marlins are 5-0 since May 24, 2009 when Josh Johnson starts vs a team that has won at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $515.
Yankees at Athletics – The Yankees are 7-0 since June 02, 2009 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $700.
Royals at Blue Jays – The Royals are 10-0 since August 13, 2009 on the road when they are off a loss in which they held the lead for a net profit of $1370. The Royals are 5-0 since August 06, 2009 after playing as a dog and it is the last game of a three game series when they lost the first two for a net profit of $700. The Blue Jays are 6-0 since September 11, 2009 after a one run win for a net profit of $750.
Phillies at Braves – The Phillies are 8-0 since September 08, 2009 after a one run loss for a net profit of $800. The Braves are 0-7 since April 12, 2005 when Tim Hudson starts after more walks than strike outs and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $885 when playing against. The Braves are 0-7 since April 14, 2009 after a win in which they left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $930 when playing against.
Cardinals at Diamondbacks – The Cardinals are 0-8 since July 21, 2009 when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $940 when playing against. The League is 0-9 since June 08, 2009 as a 140+ dog after a win in which they had more than ten team-left-on-base as a favorite for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Diamondbacks are 0-7 since May 27, 2009 as a 140+ dog after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $700 when playing against.
Orioles at Mariners – The Orioles are 0-9 since September 23, 2009 on the road when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Mariners are 9-0 since June 03, 2009 as a favorite after a win and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $900. The Mariners are 7-0 since June 07, 2009 as a favorite when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $700.
Cubs at Mets – The Cubs are 8-0 since August 23, 2009 vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $990.
Rockies at Nationals – The Rockies are 9-0 since August 13, 2009 as a favorite after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent as a favorite for a net profit of $900. The League is 8-0 since August 05, 2009 as a road favorite when their starter went less than four innings in his last start after a win for a net profit of $800. The Nationals are 7-0 since June 06, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem after a loss in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $760.
Giants at Padres – The Giants are 10-0 since April 19, 2009 after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent as a favorite for a net profit of $1060. The Giants are 9-0 since May 05, 2009 on the road within 20 cents of pickem after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $910. The Giants are 9-1 since April 19, 2009 after being shutout for a net profit of $865. The Padres are 6-0 since August 08, 2009 as a favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $600.
Brewers at Pirates – The Pirates are 0-9 since August 12, 2005 when Zach Duke starts as a dog after the team won his last two starts for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Pirates are 0-8 since August 05, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Pirates are 0-7 since April 19, 2009 when Zach Duke starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $715 when playing against..
Rangers at Red Sox – The League is 0-11 since October 01, 2009 as a 140+ dog when they lost by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $1100 when playing against. The Rangers are 0-9 since August 11, 2009 as a dog when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Red Sox are 10-0 since April 11, 2006 when Josh Beckett starts at home in April for a net profit of $1000.
Dodgers at Reds – The Dodgers are 7-0 since June 13, 2009 after a loss in which they had at least five more team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $770. The Dodgers are 6-0 since June 20, 2009 on the road after a loss in which they drew 5+ walks and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $655. The Reds are 6-0 since September 01, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $605.
Indians at Twins – The Twins are 7-0 since August 24, 2009 as a home favorite when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $700.
Rays at White Sox – The Rays are 0-7 since August 12, 2009 after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $710 when playing against. The White Sox are 0-7 since July 04, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $725 when playing against.