Wednesday Wagers
By Judd Hall
We’ve had great weather all across the land as the Major League Baseball season opened up for 2010. There is no shortage of action on the diamond on Wednesday with 15 games for us to choose from at the betting shops. We’re going to look at last year’s World Series participants as one closes out its series with a hated rival and another continues its set against a divisional foe.
Phillies at Nationals – 7:05 p.m. EDT
Philadelphia (1-0, +100) opened defense of its National League title with a strong 11-1 annihilation of that Nats on Monday as a $2.00 road favorite. Roy Halladay showed no sign of nerves in his first game for the Phillies with nine strikeouts and two walks in seven innings of work. The Phils’ offense showed up in a big way in the clutch with five of their 11 runs being scored with two outs. Placido Polanco welcomed himself to his new Philly teammates with a grand slam in the seventh inning.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants is expecting more of the same on Wednesday night as the Phillies are listed as $1.63 road favorites (risk $163 to win $100) and a total of nine. Bettors looking for the Nationals to bounce back for a plus-153 return (risk $100 to win $153).
For the Phils to get their second straight win, they’ll have to get a good effort out of Cole Hamels. The southpaw from San Diego was out of sorts from the start of last season as he went 10-11 with a 4.32 earned run average. Hamels was truly atrocious when pitching on the road in 2009, evidenced by a 3-6 mark and an ERA of 4.99. Despite that high ERA, the ‘under’ went 9-7 in his 16 road tests last year.
Washington (0-1, -100) will trot out its newest fireballer in Jason Marquis. Last year with the Rockies, Marquis was 15-13 with a 4.04 ERA. He was a force last April with a 3-1 mark with an ERA of 4.10.
The Nats would like to think they have a chance at making it out of this game with a “W.” The only problem with that is they went 1-5 against left-handed pitches as home pups last season.
Philadelphia is 10-4 when listed as a road favorite over the last five years after scoring 10 or more runs in its last game.
Yankees at Red Sox – 7:10 p.m. EDT
It looked like the Yankees were onto their 10th win in their last 11 meetings with Boston on Sunday night. New York (0-1, -100) surged out to a 5-1 lead after four innings. But the Red Sox weren’t going to just fall over. The BoSox outscored the Yanks 8-2 from the fifth inning on to walk away with a 9-7 win as $1.15 home faves. Kevin Youkilis had three extra-base hits with two runs batted in, while Dustin Pedroia drilled a two-run shot off of Chan Ho Park.
LVSC has listed Boston (1-0, +100) as a $1.45 home “chalk” with a total of nine in the last game of this three-game set. The Yanks can be backed on the money line at plus-135.
New York is sending Andy Pettitte out to the mound on Wednesday night. Not a bad option to entrust your starting duties with since Pettitte has gone 7-3 with a 3.90 ERA in 15 career starts at Fenway Park. And he was 8-4 in road games in 2009.
The Red Sox will counter with their latest arm, John Lackey. In his last season with the Angels, Lackey posted an 11-8 mark to go with a 3.83 ERA. Against the Bombers, however, Lackey is has gone just 5-7 with a 4.66 ERA. Also, the Halos were 1-1 against NY in last year’s ALCS. If you’re thinking about backing him at Fenway Park, just remember that he is 2-5 with a 5.75 ERA in nine starts at Boston’s home field for his career.
One big trend to look out for on Boston is that they are 13-2 over the last two seasons as a home favorite of at least $1.40 following a win as a home fave. The ‘over’ is just 8-7 in that stretch.
New York has lost five of its last six games as a road underdog, with the ‘over’ going 4-1-1 in that stretch.
Random Knowledge
Hideki Matsui endeared himself to folks in the O.C. with 2-for-4, 2 RBI debut with the Halos on Monday night. But it just odd for me to see him in any uniform that isn’t the Yankees. And I’m pretty damn sure he’s thrilled to not have to hear John Sterling screw up any home run calls for him this year.
Monday was geared towards “chalk-eaters” with the favorites going 11-2 for the day. Even the run line was profitable with a 10-1 mark for those faves in their 11 outright victories. The ‘over’ was 10-2-1 in the slate.
With Mark Buehrle’s 6-0 win over the Tribe on Monday for Chicago, he improved to 4-0 in April starts dating back to last season. Other hurlers to look out for are Minnesota’s Kevin Slowey (3-0, 4.44 ERA in April ’09) taking on the Halos on April 8 and the Dodgers’ Chad Billingsley (4-0, 2.14 ERA) will match up against the Pirates on Thursday as well.
vegasinsider.com
Chicago Cubs (0-1) at Atlanta (1-0)
The Braves, who drubbed Chicago in the season opener, send out right-hander Jair Jurrjens (14-10, 2.60 ERA in 2009) opposite the Cubs’ Ryan Dempster (11-9, 3.65) as this three-game series continues at Turner Field.
Atlanta pounded out a 16-5 victory Monday before these two squads took Tuesday off. The Braves piled up six runs in the first inning and six more in the eighth inning, shutting out Chicago over the last six innings. Atlanta ended last season with six straight losses – all at home – but has now won five in a row against the N.L. Central and is 42-20 in its last 62 games after a day off.
The Cubs are in a number of ruts dating back to last season, including 1-5 overall, 1-4 against the N.L. East, 1-4 against right-handers and 2-5 after a day off. In addition, Atlanta has won four of the last five meetings in this rivalry, including the last three in a row.
Chicago won six of Dempster’s last nine starts in ‘09, with the righty going 5-2 and throwing at least six innings in all but one of those outings, including a complete-game shutout and a pair of eight-inning stints. He also had a 2.46 ERA in that stretch. However, the veteran right-hander went just 4-5 in 17 road starts last year despite a solid 3.38 ERA, and the Cubs are just 5-14 in Dempster’s last 19 outings on the highway.
Dempster is a meager 2-11 with a 5.14 ERA in 26 career appearances (15 starts) against Atlanta. In his lone start against the Braves last year, he was dealt a 2-0 road loss, giving up both runs in 6 2/3 innings.
Jurrjens had a sterling run to finish 2009, going 4-0 in his final five starts while allowing just four earned runs over 37 innings, for a superb 0.97 ERA. Still, the Braves went just 2-5 in the right-hander’s last seven home starts and 1-11 in his last 12 outings against N.L. Central foes. And despite a 2.45 ERA in his 18 outings at Turner Field last year, Jurrjens was a modest 7-6.
Jurrjens has just one career outing against the Cubs, a 4-2 road loss last July in which he gave up all four runs in six innings of play.
The Cubs are on a bundle of “under” runs, including 8-3-2 overall, 9-1-2 against winning teams, 4-1-2 on the road and 5-0 with Dempster taking the ball. Likewise, the Braves are on “under” surges of 5-1 after a day off, 6-2 following a win, 6-2 in Jurrjens’ last eight starts of 2009 and 8-1 with Jurrjens facing an N.L. Central foe.
Finally, Monday’s scoring bonanza halted a five-game “under” stretch in this rivalry, so the over is now 7-2-1 in the last 10 Atlanta clashes between these two teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and UNDER
N.Y. Yankees (1-1) at Boston (1-1)
John Lackey (11-8, 3.83 ERA) makes his Red Sox debut as Boston wraps up its three-game set against the bitter rival Yankees, who will send veteran southpaw Andy Pettitte (14-8, 4.16) to the Fenway Park mound.
After blowing leads of 5-1 and 7-5 in Sunday’s season-opener, New York took care of business Tuesday with a 6-4 victory. The Yankees remain on positive runs of 77-32 overall, 41-16 against A.L. East rivals and 48-19 against right-handed starters. Boston is still on a 56-25 run at Fenway, but the Sox have now lost seven of their last eight against the A.L. East.
Boston won the first eight meetings of the 2009 season in this storied rivalry, but New York has since gone 10-2. However, the Sox are 9-3 in the last 12 clashes at Fenway Park, and the home team has taken 15 of the last 20 battles going back to the start of last year.
Lackey had spent his entire eight-year career with the Angels before signing with the BoSox in the offseason. The right-hander began last season on the disabled list and didn’t throw his first game until May 16. The Angels lost three of his last four regular-season starts, as he went 1-1 with a pair of no-decisions, but Lackey bounced back to go 2-1 with a 2.32 ERA in three playoff starts.
Lackey threw 7 1/3 shutout innings in a 5-0 home win over Boston in the first round of the postseason, took the loss in a 4-1 road setback to the Yankees in the ALCS opener, then got the win in a 7-6 victory over New York in Game 5 of the ALCS. Lackey is 5-7 with a 4.66 ERA in 16 career regular-season starts against the Yanks. He’s also just 2-5 with a 5.75 ERA in nine regular-season outings at Fenway.
The Yankees went 1-3 in Pettitte’s last four regular-season starts in 2009, but the lefty starred in the postseason, going 4-0 with a 3.52 ERA in five starts. That included two wins against the Phillies in the World Series, which Pettitte helped close out in a 7-3 Game 6 victory. New York is on runs behind Pettitte of 7-3 on the highway, 46-22 in division play and 30-9 on Wednesday.
Pettitte is a solid 18-9 with a 3.74 ERA in 36 career appearances (34 starts) against Boston, including 2-1 with a 3.75 ERA in four starts last season, though he split his two Fenway Park appearances and posted a 6.55 ERA. The Pinstripes are 8-3 in Pettitte’s last 11 starts against the Sox and are on a 4-1 run with the lefty hurling at Fenway.
The first two games of this series have topped the total, and the over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in this rivalry and 38-18-1 in the last 57 battles in Boston. Also, New York is on “over” runs 6-0 dating to last year’s Fall Classic and 7-0-1 on the road. However, with Pettitte taking the pill, the Yanks are on “under” rolls of 55-26-3 overall, 34-15-2 on the highway and 23-11-2 in the A.L. East.
The Red Sox, meanwhile, carry “over” trends of 5-0 at home, 10-2 at Fenway against lefties and 5-0 within the division. Also, the over cashed in four of Lackey’s final six starts with the Angels in 2009.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER
MLB RoundUp for 4/7
By Dan Bebe
National League
Rockies @ Brewers (-115) with a total of 9
Dexter Fowler is 2-for-4 with 2 HR off Doug Davis;
Todd Helton is 5-for-11 with 1 HR and 5 RBI since 2005 off Davis;
Seth Smith is 3-for-5, Ian Stewart is 3-for-8 with a HR, and Troy Tulowitzki is 6-for-17 off Davis;
Aaron Cook is career 6-2, 3.02 ERA as a starter against the Brewers;
Ryan Braun is 4-for-8 with a HR off Cook;
Jim Edmonds is a ridiculous 7-for-12 with 2 HR off Cook.
Some solid offensive numbers for the Rox against Doug Davis make them a nice deal, assuming Cook has his sinker and can deal with rickety old Jim Edmonds. This game has that afternoon feel of teams getting off to quick starts, then doing nothing from the 3rd inning on.
Giants (-140) @ Astros with a total of 7.5
Mark DeRosa is 3-for-7 off Brett Myers, Bengie Molina is 2-for-3, and Edgar Renteria is 7-for-20 with 2 HR off Myers;
Carlos Lee is 5-for-8 with a HR off Matt Cain.
Brett Myers is still playing? If the Astros had any offense, I'd suggest the Over, but as it is, you have to at least look at the Giants with Cain on the hill, even at the high price.
Dodgers (-145) @ Pirates with a total of 8
Manny Ramirez is 2-for-2 off Ross Ohlendorf, but really, almost no true historical stats to use in this one, on either side.
Clayton Kershaw is a budding superstar, and I wouldn't be surprised to see this line rise. It's expensive, but you have to think the Dodgers bounce back. Kershaw is dangerous - if he's wild, he'd have to leave early, but this one might actually stay Under.
Phillies (-170) @ Nationals with a total of 9
Cole Hamels, for all his troubles, is 7-3, 2.30 ERA against the Nats;
Chase Utley is 7-for-15 off Jason Marquis with 3 RBI, and Jayson Werth is a perfect 4-for-4 with 1 HR;
Alberto Gonzalez is 4-for-8 off Hamels;
Adam Dunn is just 1-for-12 off Hamels, a big bat for Hamels to keep quiet.
At this price, the Phillies are an awful value, especially if Hamels shows any signs of his struggles from 2009 - it's Nats or nothing here, and Marquis is a competitor. This total is tough, as we still don't know enough about the Nats offense from one game against Halladay - slight expectation of an Over.
Cubs @ Braves (-165) with a total of 8
Chad Tracy is 4-for-7 lifetime off Jurrjens with a HR and 5 RBI;
Mike Fontenot, Derrek Lee, Xavier Nady, Alfonso Soriano, Kosuke Fukudome, and Ryan Theriot each have at least one hit off Jurrjens in limited exposure;
Ryan Dempster is 2-10 in his career against the Braves - yes, two and ten;
That being said, the current Braves haven't had much success against him - Nate McLouth is 5-for-15 with a HR and 3 RBI, and that's about it.
Consider Jurrjens' history, this seems like a pretty sultry deal on Chicago - let's keep our eyes peeled. That total seems too low, if Jurrjens struggles at all, so I'm watching the Over.
Marlins (-125) @ Mets with a total of 8.5
Jorge Cantu is 6-for-15 off John Maine with 3 RBI;
Ricky Nolasco has been very hit-or-miss against NYM, going 3-6, 5.99 ERA against them;
David Wright is batting over .350 off Nolasco with 3 HR and 8 RBI since 2005;
Luis Castillo is 6-for-14 off Nolasco, Jeff Francoeur is batting .304 with 2 HR, and Angel Pagan is 3-for-6.
Ricky Nolasco has nasty, nasty stuff, but it's the first start of the season, the Marlins pen is the huge weak link, and Nolasco is a strikeout pitcher. I'd look to the home dog at this price. No feelings on the total, at least not yet - too many questions.
Cardinals (-145) @ Reds with a total of 8
Skip Schumaker is 5-for-11 off Johnny Cueto;
Jay Bruce is 1-for-3 with a HR off Adam Wainwright.
It's really surprising how little these pitchers have faced the opposing batters, but we know the kind of damage Wainwright can do. Be careful on the side, that's my best advice. Cueto is a decent pitcher, but let's see how he fares coming out of the gate. Same deal with the total.
Padres @ Diamondbacks (-145) with a total of 9.5
Gerardo Parra went 5-for-12 off Kevin Correia with 2 RBI;
Mark Reynolds has 2 HR in 26 AB, and Adam Laroche is 5-for-10.
Despite a few D'backs with decent numbers against Correia, he's clearly the better starter in this game, and what do we really know about Ian Kennedy? Nice value with the visitors, here. That's a high total for a Padres game, keep an eye on it, since both sides could put up 5 runs in Phoenix.
American League
Orioles @ Rays (-210) with a total of 9.5
Adam Jones is 4-for-10 with 1 HR and 2 RBI off Matt Garza;
Miguel Tejada is 5-for-10 with 2 HR and 2 RBI off Garza, as well;
Matt Garza is 6-1, 2.92 ERA against Baltimore, though Tejada should help the O's;
Carlos Pena is 6-for-16 off Jeremy Guthrie with a HR and 4 RBI;
B.J. Upton is 8-for-21 off Guthrie with 1 HR and 8 RBI.
Not a monster advantage on either side, given the steep price, probably a game to avoid; I was looking for a way to lean Over, but the high total makes that tough.
Yankees @ Red Sox (-140) with a total of 10
Derek Jeter is batting .357 off John Lackey in 28 AB with 1 HR and 5 RBI since 2005;
Jorge Posada is 9-for-16 off Lackey, Mark Teixeira is 12-for-33, and Randy Winn is 5-for-15;
Adrian Beltre, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Lowell, David Ortiz, and Kevin Youkilis all have career averages over .300 against Andy Pettite.
I'm not sure we can trust either starter to crush, and instead I would suggest watching both guys throw a game to see how they look.
Blue Jays @ Rangers (-175) with a total of 9
These current Jays haven't seen much of Harden, but Vernon Wells is 1-for-2 with a dinger;
Brian Tallet is 1-2, 2.75 ERA against Texas;
Josh Hamilton is 2-for-3 off Tallet, with 2 HR and 3 RBI.
Given Tallet's decent numbers against Texas, it's tough not to at least give a slight lean to Toronto. No real lean on the total, this game could easily be 3-2 or 10-8.
Indians @ White Sox (-165) with a total of 8.5
In limited action, Grady Sizemore is a perfect 3-for-3 off Jake Peavy with a HR;
No real power numbers for Chicago, but Paul Konerko, Mark Kotsay, A.J. Pierzynski and Mark Teahen have all enjoyed success (.370+ BA) against Fausto Carmona.
I would love to back the White Sox, but the price might be too high. As for Carmona, let's see how the head-case looks in his first start before leaping in, side or total.
Tigers (-140) @ Royals with a total of 9
Our first official case of "ownage" - Miguel Cabrera is 8-for-9 (.889 BA!) off Luke Hochevar;
Carlos Guillen is 4-for-10 with a HR and 3 RBI;
Mitch Maier is 3-for-3 off Max Scherzer, and Jose Guillen is 2-for-3 in their brief meeting.
This is a heck of a price to pay for an unestablished youngster on the road. Scherzer is nasty, but not -140 road chalk nasty. He's still a strikeout pitcher, which means bullpen work, and I think the Over might be the best value here.
Twins @ Angels (-145) with a total of 10
Joe Mauer is 10-for-17 with a HR and 7 RBI off Ervin Santana;
Justin Morneau is 5-for-15 with 2 HR and 7 RBI off Santana since 2005;
Orlando Hudson is 2-for-6, Nick Punto is 6-for-14, and Denard Span is 4-for-11 off Santana;
Bobby Abreu is 2-for-3 off Carl Pavano, Torii Hunter is 2-for-5, Kendry Morales is 2-for-3 with 2 HR, Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera are both 2-for-5 with 1 HR, Brandon Wood is 1-for-2 with a HR.
This looks ugly all around, so this side is a mess. Those career numbers for the position players are even scarier for the starters - slight lean to the Over.
Mariners @ Athletics (-120) with a total of 7.5
Kurt Suzuki is 6-for-15 lifetime off Ryan Rowland-Smith
No real interesting numbers in this one, but would love to see Duchscherer in action once before backing him - awfully low total on this game, too, which draws my attention. Do oddsmakers feel both starters will pitch well? It seems so.
Diamond Trends - Wednesday
By Vince Akins
Twins at Angels – The Angels are 15-1 since July 19, 2007 as a 140+ favorite after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1280 The Angels are 0-7 since September 09, 2008 when Ervin Santana starts at home after his team won the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $985 when playing against.
Giants at Astros – The Giants are 1-9 OU since May 23, 2009 when Matt Cain starts on the road vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $785 when playing the under. The Giants are 1-12-1 OU since August 02, 2008 on the road after scoring 3 runs or less and winning for a net profit of $1090 when playing the under.
Mariners at Athletics – The Mariners are 1-11 since July 06, 2008 when Ryan Rowland Smith starts as a dog vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $925 when playing against.
Cubs at Braves – The Braves are 1-9 OU since April 08, 2008 when Jair Jurrjens starts in April for a net profit of $785 when playing the under.
Padres at Diamondbacks – The Padres are 8-1 since August 18, 2009 as a dog after a win in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $1155
Dodgers at Pirates – The Pirates are 2-16 since May 23, 2008 as a home dog after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $1370 when playing against. The Pirates are 9-1 since April 20, 2009 when Ross Ohlendorf starts as a home dog for a net profit of $950 The League is 10-1 OU since September 15, 2009 as a road favorite when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $885 when playing the over. Active on the Dodgers. The Dodgers are 8-0 OU since August 27, 2008 as a road 140+ favorite after a loss in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $800 when playing the over.
Blue Jays at Rangers – The Rangers are 8-0 OU since July 28, 2009 at home when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit for a net profit of $800 when playing the over.
Yankees at Red Sox – The Yankees are 0-9-1 OU since April 05, 2008 when Andy Pettitte starts in April for a net profit of $900 when playing the under.
Tigers at Royals – The Royals are 8-0 OU since June 19, 2009 at home within 20 cents of pickem after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits for a net profit of $800 when playing the over.
Indians at White Sox – The White Sox are 1-11-1 OU since July 01, 2009 after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $985 when playing the under.