Wednesday Day Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Wednesday baseball card is loaded with games from day until late night, giving bettors plenty of opportunities to make money. Several hurlers that have been pitching well take the mound in matinees, as we'll start in Milwaukee with a pair of below .500 teams looking to turn the corner.
Braves at Brewers - 1:10 PM EST
Two clubs trying to build off a slow start wrap up a three-game set at Miller Park. The Braves had dropped 11 of 13 on the highway prior to consecutive wins over the Brewers to start this series. Yovani Gallardo toes the rubber for Milwaukee, coming off two strong road victories at San Diego and Arizona.
The Brewers have won each of Gallardo's (4-2, 3.07 ERA) last four starts after Milwaukee lost his first three outings. Gallardo has struck out 21 in his previous two outings, while finishing 'under' the total in five of the last six. The righty has had success against the Braves in his career, allowing two earned runs in three starts, including two victories last season by exact 4-0 counts.
Derek Lowe (4-3, 6.16 ERA) is looking for consistency with only one quality start to his credit in seven outings this season. Lowe was lit up at Philadelphia in his last turn, giving up 11 hits and seven earned runs in five innings of a 7-0 defeat. The sinkerballer hasn't gone far into games, not lasting past the sixth inning, while failing to get out of the sixth in each of the last five outings.
Milwaukee has struggled at Miller Park this season, going 1-6 the last seven at home. What's even worse is the Brewers have lost these games to three of the weakest road teams in baseball (Braves, Cubs, and Pirates). Brewers' LF Ryan Braun is day-to-day with an elbow contusion after getting with a pitch in Monday's loss.
Nationals at Mets - 1:10 PM EST
Washington is continuing to impress with its solid start through the first six weeks of the season, as the Nats and Mets finish up their series at Citi Field. The Nats are 6-2 the last eight meetings against the Mets dating back to last season, coming off last night's 8-6 loss to New York.
Mike Pelfrey (4-1, 2.65 ERA) bounced back from his first loss of the season with a seven-inning performance in a no-decision against the Giants. Pelfrey was in line for the win before closer Francisco Rodriguez gave up the game-tying homer in the ninth. The Mets hit a walk-off homer to claim the victory in the bottom half of that inning, the fifth win for New York in Pelfrey's six starts. The only win by the Mets over the Nationals this season came when Pelfrey scattered four hits and two runs in an 8-2 runaway against Washington on April 9.
The Nationals counter with Craig Stammen (1-1, 5.62 ERA), who has been torched in two road losses at Philadelphia and Florida. The righty gave up ten earned runs in just 5.1 innings of the two division setbacks on the highway, but the 'under' has now hit in each of his last four starts. All three of Stammen's starts last season against the Mets finished 'under' the total, as Washington went 1-2.
These two teams have contrasting records in Game 3's this season with the Nats going 8-2 and the Mets compiling a 2-7 ledger. New York owns the second-worst batting average in the National League against right-handers at .234, but is 11-5 at Citi Field versus right-handed starting pitchers.
White Sox at Twins - 1:10 PM EST
Chicago and Minnesota conclude its mini two-game set at Target Field as both John Danks and Carl Pavano look to each bounce back from 2-0 losses in their last start.
Danks (3-1, 1.98 ERA) pitched fantastic against the hot-hitting Blue Jays, allowing two earned runs or less for the sixth straight start. However, the Sox were shut out for only the second time in Danks' last 58 starts, as Chicago lost as the biggest favorite ($1.70) that the lefty has been listed at in 2010. Danks has had little luck against the Twins, with Minnesota beating Chicago in each of his last five starts. In Danks' final four starts at the Metrodome, the Sox went 0-4, but Chicago has averaged nine runs a game in his two away starts this season, both wins.
Pavano (3-3, 3.43 ERA) hasn't received run support in his last two outings, with the Twins getting shut out by the Orioles and Tigers. The veteran righty has gone eight innings in each of those starts, while allowing two earned runs each, but Minnesota 1-3 in Pavano's last four outings. Pavano has not faced the Sox as a member of the Twins, as the Indians were 2-1 in his starts last season against Chicago.
The Sox are 2-8 the last ten games away from the South Side, while going 6-1 to the 'over' the previous seven on the highway. The Twins are 13-3 the last 16 against the Sox in this series, including the 20-1 blowout at Chicago last May.
Blue Jays at Red Sox - 1:35 PM EST
If Toronto can somehow avoid Boston, the Jays' record would look even better than the 19-16 mark they own. The Red Sox are 5-0 against the Jays this season, with three wins coming by one run apiece. The Jays look to break through on Wednesday afternoon against the ageless wonder, Tim Wakefield.
The knuckleballer is making his first start since April 25 as Wakefield (0-1, 6.03 ERA) goes for his first win since last August. Wakefield has been involved in three one-run games this season, including losses to last-place clubs Baltimore and Kansas City. The veteran pitched well in his last outing against the Orioles, allowing two earned runs and seven hits in 6.2 innings, but the Sox fell, 7-6. Wakefield's last two starts against Toronto have been downright disastrous, giving up 11 earned runs in just 7.2 innings of work, both losses.
Shaun Marcum (1-1, 3.19 ERA) has turned in quality starts in six of his seven outings this season, including all three road starts. Marcum is coming off a no-decision in Toronto's 12-inning win at Chicago last Friday, scattering six hits and three earned runs in 7.2 innings of work. The righty was out-dueled by Clay Buchholz in the last meeting with the Red Sox, falling 2-1 on April 27 at Rogers Center, the fifth no-decision of the season for Marcum.
Both these teams are on 7-3 'over' runs, while Toronto is just 3-7 in Game 3's this season. The Red Sox are hitting nearly 40 points higher against right-handed pitchers than left-handers, as Boston is 5-2 the last seven at home versus righty starters.
vegasinsider.com
Prime MLB Time Tips
By Brian Edwards
With no NBA action tonight, gamblers have to focus on baseball whether they like it or not. Let’s take a look at the night game of the Yankees-Tigers twin bill, in addition to St. Louis in bounce-back mode hosting the Astros.
**Yankees at Tigers**
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened New York (21-10, +753) as a minus-150 favorite with a total of 9 ½ (minus-115 either way). As of early this morning, most spots had the Yankees at minus-160. Bettors can take the Yankees on the run line (minus 1 ½ runs) for a plus-105 return.
With last night’s game postponed due to rain, these teams will meet in the first game of this doubleheader at 1:00 p.m. Eastern.
Joe Girardi’s club is one game behind the American League East-leading Rays. The Yankees have posted an 11-8 record in 19 road games to date.
Phil Hughes (4-0, 1.69) has not given up more than two earned runs in any of his five starting assignments this season. The right-hander, who owns a 17-10 record and 3.85 career ERA, is 2-2 with a 5.30 lifetime ERA against Detroit.
Detroit RHP Jeremy Bonderman (1-1, 5.74) has been roughed up quite a bit this year, but Detroit has emerged victorious from four of his five starts. Bonderman owns an abysmal 3-7 record and 5.55 career ERA against the Yankees.
Detroit (18-14, +415) is in second place in the AL Central, three games off the pace of the division-leading Twins. The Tigers have been dynamite at home, cashing tickets at a 10-3 clip.
The ‘over’ is 17-14 overall for the Tigers, but they have watched the ‘under’ go 7-6 in their 13 home outings.
The ‘over’ is 18-15 overall the Yankees, 12-9 in their home games.
ESPN will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
**Astros at Cardinals**
Most books are listing St. Louis (20-12, +428) as the favorite in the minus-165-175 range. The total is 8 1/2 ‘under’ (minus-120) and the Cards can be had on the run line for a plus-125 payout (risk $100 to win $125)
Houston (10-21, -1003) won a 6-3 decision at St. Louis last night, hooking up its backers with a generous plus-210 return. Brett Myers gave up just two earned runs in six innings for his second win of the season. Lance Berkman belted his third homer, although his 1-for-4 performance kept his batting average at .197.
The win pulled the last-place Astros to within 8 ½ games of first-place St. Louis, which has a three-game advantage over Cincinnati in the NL Central.
Tony Larussa’s club has won 10 of its l3 home games. The veteran skipper will turn to Kyle Lohse (0-2, 5.45) in this spot. The righty is 6-6 with a 2.95 lifetime ERA against Houston.
The Astros have lost six of their nine road games so far. They have watched the ‘under’ turn a lucrative 20-9 overall record. Even better, the ‘under’ is 7-2 in Houston nine road outings.
Houston LHP Wandy Rodriguez (1-4, 4.59) will toe the rubber in the middle game of this three-game set. The southpaw has always had tough luck against the Cards with a 3-10 record and 4.17 career ERA.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Tampa Bay LHP David Price (4-1, 1.91) is enjoying a stellar campaign to date, posting a 2-0 record and 0.79 ERA in his last three starts. He’ll get the ball for the Rays in a late-afternoon game (7:00 p.m. ET.) on the West coast against the Angels.
Cody Ross hit a two-run homer and Ricky Nolasco worked seven strong innings to lead Florida to a 3-2 win over the Cubs. The Marlins hooked up their backers as plus-115 road underdogs. Leo Nunez worked a perfect ninth inning for his seventh save, leaving his ERA at a miniscule 0.63. The Fish are now 4 ½ games back of the NL East-leading Phillies.
Atlanta has won eight of its last 13 games since losing nine straight. Tim Hudson improved to 3-1 with a 2.64 ERA after going six innings in an 11-3 win at Milwaukee. Troy Glaus, who has caught fire recently to get his batting average up to .268, had a double and homer for three RBIs last night. Rookie sensation Jason Heyward had a pair of hits to get his average back up to .300.
Cincinnati’s Homer Bailey (0-2, 7.24) has been struggling mightily this season, but the Pirates could be just what the doctor ordered for Bailey. He is 4-0 with a 2.13 ERA in four career starts against Pittsburgh.
vegasinsider.com
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Diego (20-12) at San Francisco (18-13)
The top two teams in the N.L. West continue their three-game series at AT&T Park, with the Giants’ Matt Cain (2-1, 2.79 ERA) looking to end his struggles against the Padres when he opposes lefty Clayton Richard (1-2, 3.34).
San Diego stranded a whopping 15 runners on base and failed to capitalize on 12 walks, but still managed to squeak out a 3-2 victory in Tuesday’s series opener. The Padres have climbed to the top of the division standings thanks to a 15-6 overall run, going 7-3 on the highway during this stretch. On top of that, Bud Black’s team is on positive runs of 8-3 against N.L. West foes, 21-8 against winning teams and 22-5 in the second game of a series. However, San Diego has dropped 38 of 56 Wednesday games and five of seven versus right-handed starters.
San Francisco has still won 10 of its last 16 overall, 14 of 20 at AT&T Park (10-6 this season) and 11 of 15 on Wednesday. However, Bruce Bochy’s bunch has now dropped six of eight divisional contests, going 0-4 against the Padres this season.
San Diego has held the Giants to a total of four runs in four meetings this season. Also, the Padres have won seven of the last nine matchups dating to last September, but the home team remains on a 16-6 roll in this rivalry. In fact, last year, the host won the first 11 head-to-head battles, and the Padres are still only 4-10 in their last 14 visits to AT&T Park.
Richard gave up three runs on six hits and five walks in five innings a week ago against the Rockies, but didn’t factor in the decision as the Padres lost 6-5 at home in 12 innings. It marked the 10th consecutive start in which Richard has held an opponent to three runs or fewer, and he’s got a 3.06 ERA during this stretch. That includes a 3-2 home win over the Giants on April 19 when he outdueled Cain, giving up a run on seven hits in 6 1/3 innings.
San Diego has lost four of Richard’s last six starts overall and five of his last seven on the highway. He’s only pitched twice on the road this season, allowing three runs in each game over a total of 12 1/3 innings, with San Diego losing 7-0 in Colorado and 5-4 in Cincinnati. Also, the last time Richard gave up more than three runs in a game was on Sept. 7 in San Francisco, when he got rocked for six runs in four innings of 9-4 loss to the Giants.
After three no-decisions and a loss to begin 2010, Cain is now coming off consecutive victories over the Rockies (6-1 at home) and Marlins (6-3 on the road). He allowed a combined two runs on five hits with 14 strikeouts in 15 innings in the two wins. Cain has yielded three earned runs or fewer in eight straight starts (2.44 ERA), but San Francisco has only managed to split those contests, including two losses in San Diego by a combined score of 5-2.
San Francisco has been victorious in 12 of Cain’s last 17 home starts, where the right-hander is 1-1 with a 2.37 ERA in three games this year. However, the Giants are 1-5 in his last six against the N.L. West and 17-35 in his last 52 versus winning teams. Also, with their 3-2 loss in San Diego last month, the Giants are now 3-11 in Cain’s last 14 appearances against the Padres, including 2-5 in the last seven in San Francisco. For his career, Cain is 4-6 despite a stellar 2.91 ERA in 19 starts versus the Padres.
The Padres are on “under” streaks of 19-7-1 on the road, 11-4-1 versus the N.L. West, 24-11-3 against right-handed starters and 12-4 against winning teams. Also, the under is 6-2-2 in Richard’s last 10 trips to the mound and 3-0-1 in his last four road starts.
San Francisco topped the total in four of its last five games overall, but otherwise the Giants carry “under” trends of 10-1 at home, 8-0 in divisional games, 36-17-1 on Wednesday and 5-1 in the second game of a series. Also, the under is 4-1 both in Cain’s last five starts overall and his last five against the N.L. West.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under has cashed in six straight clashes overall and 10 of 14 in San Francisco.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (21-10) at Detroit (18-14)
The Yankees and Tigers are set to resume their four-game series at Comerica Park with a day-night doubleheader after Tuesday’s game was postponed by rain. In the first game, New York’s Javy Vazquez (1-3, 9.78 ERA) is slated to oppose the Tigers’ Rick Porcello (2-3, 7.50) in a battle of struggling right-handers. Then Phil Hughes (4-0, 1.69) looks to continue his outstanding season when he leads New York against Jeremy Bonderman (1-1, 5.74) in the nightcap.
Detroit held off the Yankees 5-4 to take Monday’s series opener and halt a 1-4 slide (all on the road). The Tigers have now won six in a row at home, and they’re 10-3 at Comerica Park this season and 46-22 in their last 68 home contests. Jim Leyland’s club has also won six of eight against the A.L. East, five straight at home against right-handed starters and eight of 11 in the third game of a series.
The Yankees have followed up a six-game winning streak with back-to-back losses, but they’ve still won nine of 12 overall, going 4-2 on the road during this stretch. The defending world champs are on additional surges of 40-17 overall, 40-15 against the A.L. Central, 48-15 as a favorite, 62-23 against right-handed starters and 8-2 on the road versus righties.
Detroit beat New York 4-2 in last year’s first meeting (in Motown), but the Yankees came back to win the final five clashes by a combined score of 28-11. Despite Monday’s result, the visitor is still on a 7-3 roll in this rivalry, with the Yankees going 4-2 in their last six in Detroit.
Vazquez has been a disaster in his second tour of duty with the Yankees, giving up 25 runs in 23 innings and failing to get out of the sixth inning in any of his five starts. After consecutive losses in which he surrendered five runs in 3 2/3 innings at the Angels on April 25 and five runs in three innings against the White Sox on May 1, the Yankees bypassed his spot in the rotation last week.
Vazquez is 1-2 with a 9.82 ERA in three road contests this year (giving up five home runs in 14 2/3 innings), and he’s 6-7 with a 4.50 ERA in 13 career starts against the Tigers (2-5, 6.09 ERA in seven starts at Comerica Park).
Hughes schooled the Red Sox in Fenway Park on Friday, allowing two runs while whiffing seven in seven innings en route to a 10-3 victory. The right-hander has allowed two runs or fewer in all five starts this season, and he’s 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in three home starts. All four of New York’s victories behind Hughes this year have been by multiple runs.
The Yankees are 4-1 in Hughes’ last five starts against the A.L. Central and 5-0 in his last five Wednesday outings. Last year, he led New York to an 11-0 win in Detroit, scattering two hits and two walks in six scoreless innings. However, in his first two career starts against the Tigers, Hughes went 0-2 with a 10.24 ERA.
Porcello went 14-9 with a 3.96 ERA in 31 starts as a rookie last year, but he’s struggled as a sophomore, posting just one quality start in six trips to the mound. Over his last four outings (three on the road), the right-hander has surrendered 22 runs (20 earned) in 19 innings (9.47 ERA). On Wednesday, he got tagged for five runs (three earned) in 5 1/3 innings of a 5-4 loss at Minnesota.
The Tigers have lost four of Porcello’s last five starts overall, but they’re 7-2 in his last nine Comerica outings. In three home starts this season, Porcello is 2-0 despite a hefty 5.51 ERA. Also, he faced New York once in his rookie campaign in 2009, giving up six runs in 3 2/3 innings at home, losing 8-6.
Detroit has won each of Bonderman’s last three starts, though the veteran right-hander doesn’t have a decision to show for it. In his most recent outing on May 1, he held the Angels to two runs (one earned) on 10 hits in six innings, with Detroit getting a walk-off 3-2 victory. In two starts at Comerica this season, Bonderman has allowed two earned runs in 11 innings (1.64 ERA), and the Tigers beat the Angels and Indians (4-2).
With Bonderman on the bump, Detroit is on runs of 4-1 overall, 5-2 at home and 4-0 on Wednesday, but 2-6 against the A.L. East and 1-7 versus teams with a winning record. Also, the Tigers are 2-5 in Bonderman’s last seven starts against New York overall and 2-5 in his last seven versus the Yankees at home. Overall, Bonderman is 4-7 with a 5.20 ERA in 13 games (12 starts) against the Bronx Bombers, including a 2006 playoff victory.
Going back to Vazquez’s first stint with New York in 2004, the Yankees have topped the total in seven of his last eight starts in Pinstripes, four of his last five on Tuesday, four of his last five against the A.L. Central and 10 straight against winning teams. The over is also 5-0-1 in Hughes’ last six starts when pitching on four days’ rest. As a team, New York is riding “over” streaks of 7-3 overall, 18-7-2 on the road, 10-4 versus winning teams, 5-2-1 versus right-handed starters, but the under has cashed in nine of the Yanks’ last 12 on Wednesday
The Tigers have topped the total in four of five against the A.L. East, but they’re otherwise on “under” runs of 4-1 at home and 15-5-1 on Wednesday. Also, the over is 4-1 in Porcello’s last five starts, but with Bonderman pitching, the under is on surges of 14-6-2 overall, 3-1-2 when he pitches at home and 9-1 when he works on Wednesday.
Finally, the under has cashed in each of the last four Tigers-Yankees battles.
ATS ADVANTAGE (GAME 1): OVER
ATS ADVANTAGE (GAME 2): N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
MLB RoundUp For 5/12
By Dan Bebe
National League
Reds @ Pirates (-110) with a total of 8.5
Jonny Gomes is 4-for-12 with an RBI off Duke;
Ramon Hernandez is 4-for-7 off Duke;
Scott Rolen is 7-for-16 with a HR and 4 RBI off Duke;
Drew Stubbs is 4-for-12 with a HR off Duke;
Joey Votto is 10-for-16 with 4 RBI off Duke;
Ryan Doumit is 3-for-8 off Bailey;
Andrew McCutchen is 4-for-9 off Bailey.
Don't look now, but 0-2, 7.24 Homer Bailey is a perfect 4-0, 2.13 ERA against the Pirates. That's a great stat break, since his poor start to 2010 is giving some value on the road team, and his solid career numbers give us confidence in the Reds. Duke is 3-6 in his career against Cincinnati, and very hit-or-miss, but with those 5 potential position players getting in there and taking some licks, I think the Reds have a nice shot.
Braves @ Brewers (-155) with a total of 8.5
Chipper Jones is 2-for-6 with a HR and 2 RBI off Gallardo;
Nate McLouth is 6-for-19 off Gallardo;
Craig Counsell is 10-for-25 with 4 RBI off Lowe since '05;
Corey Hart is 6-for-16 with a HR and 3 RBI off Lowe since '05.
Derek Lowe has nice career numbers against the Brew Crew, but Gallardo can do him one better. Yovani is 2-0 against the Braves, with an ERA of just 0.81. Lowe is 3-1 against Milwaukee, ERA of 3.25. Lowe is having a bad 2010, Gallardo is throwing too many pitches, but he's getting people out. This line looks pretty fair to me, maybe even a tiny value on Gallardo if the Brewers offense could succeed in 2-3 straight games.
Nationals @ Mets (-170) with a total of 8.5
Ian Desmond is 3-for-6 with a HR off Pelfrey;
Willy Taveras is 4-for-10 off Pelfrey with 2 RBI;
Josh Willingham is 7-for-17 with 2 HR and 6 RBI off Pelfrey;
Angel Pagan is 3-for-6 off Stammen;
David Wright is 3-for-8 off Stammen.
Pelfrey actually doesn't have a great history with the Nationals, but this giant line certainly reflects his 4-1, 2.65 ERA. That being said, he's coming back to Earth just a little after an incredible start. If we weren't going to have to back Craig Stammen to fade Pelfrey, it might be worth noting, but this one looks like a passer.
Marlins @ Cubs (-125) with a total of N/A
Mike Fontenot is 4-for-11 with a HR off Volstad;
Aramis Ramirez is 4-for-8 with a HR and 2 RBI off Volstad.
Both of these pitchers have decent numbers against this particular opponent, Volstad 0-0, 2.81 ERA, and Silva 2-1, 3.28 ERA. Silva continues to pitch relatively well to open 2010, and Volstad continues to be just one step down from good. The Cubs win games when Silva's on the mount, so this might be considered a deal on him, but I'm not sure I'm on board the Silva-train just yet.
Phillies (-120) @ Rockies with a total of 11
Raul Ibanez is 4-for-8 with a HR off Hammel;
Shane Victorino is 3-for-5 off Hammel;
Brad Hawpe is 3-for-7 with a HR off Moyer;
Todd Helton is 4-for-11 with 2 RBI off Moyer since '05;
Miguel Olivo is 6-for-13 with 2 RBI off Moyer since '05;
Ryan Spilborghs is 6-for-11 with 2 HR an 6 RBI off Moyer.
There's a reason this total is stratospheric. Hammel is 0-2 this year with a 9.16 ERA. Moyer has pitched well this year, but he's 1-5 with a 6.16 ERA against the Rox. I desperately want to play the home team, but Hammel has just been unbelievably poor. So, do we dare play the Over? I know I don't like the Under, that's for sure. This one is Rockies, Over, or nothing, but needs more work to see if there's truly any value here.
Phillies @ Rockies (gm2).
No information provided right now.
Astros @ Cardinals (-175) with a total of 8
Pedro Feliz is 4-for-12 off Lohse with 4 RBI;
Hunter Pence is 9-for-25 off Lohse with 2 RBI;
Matt Holliday is 6-for-19 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Wandy.
The interesting note about Wandy Rodriguez, besides the fact that he's 3-10 lifetime against the Cardinals, is that he has actually held Albert Pujols in check. Unfortunately, Lohse has been dominant against the Astros (2.95 career ERA), and the Astros can barely put a ball in play, let alone score. There's value on Houston's side, but it's a true longshot. Probably a pass.
Dodgers (-125) @ D'backs with a total of 9.5
Casey Blake is 4-for-10 off Jackson in the AL;
Nick Green is 2-for-4 with a HR off Jackson;
Conor Jackson is 3-for-9 off Kuroda.
Hiroki pitched against Arizona already once this year, and allowed just 2 earned runs in 7 innings. He did not factor into the decision thanks to a wild Dodger comeback, but damn if this guy isn't rolling right now. You have to love Kuroda if you like a pitcher that just never gives in. He throws about 7 different pitches, and when he's on his game, he can be very tough to hit. This line is eerily low. I want to back the Dodgers, but something fishy is going on, with Jackson firmly at 1-4, 7.32 ERA this year, just this short of a dog against the "big, bad Dodgers"?
Padres @ Giants (-160) with a total of 7.5
Adrian Gonzalez is batting .341 off Cain with 2 HR and 8 RBI since '05;
Yorvit Torrealba is 8-for-24 off Cain with a HR and 3 RBI;
Juan Uribe is a perfect 2-for-2 off Richard with a HR.
Clayton Richard didn't pitch well against the Giants in the short time he's seen them. Cain has a 2.91 ERA against the Padres, but just a 4-6 record. Cain's issue is always run support, but with Richard not having proven himself against the Giants yet, this line is probably pretty fair.
American League
Yankees @ Tigers (game 1)
Nick Swisher has a HR and 2 RBI in 2 AB against Porcello;
Miguel Cabrera is 8-for-19 with 3 HR and 7 RBI off Vazquez since '05;
Johnny Damon is 5-for-9 off Vazquez since '05 with 3 RBI.
If Rick Porcello could get his act together, this would be a great time to back the Tigers, but the kid is deep, deep in a sophomore slump. And then this total of 10 is already so high. Tough game, but I suppose if I had to lean anywhere, I'd lean to the dog and to the Over.
Yankees @ Tigers (game 2)
Miguel Cabrera is 3-for-6 off Phil Hughes.
Despite his 3-7 record against New York, the current crop of Yankees hasn't seen much of Bonderman over the last 5 years. That doesn't mean I trust him, and you guys know how little I like dabbling in doubleheaders, especially when I'm seeing a few games that I'm almost willing to play without watching line moves. Yeah, that confident.
White Sox @ Twins (-115) with a total of 8
A.J. Pierzynski is 4-for-9 with an RBI off Pavano since '05;
Alex Rios is 4-for-12 with a HR off Pavano since '05;
Michael Cuddyer is 16-for-30 with 5 HR and 11 RBI off Danks;
Brendan Harris is 9-for-27 off Danks;
Joe Mauer is 10-for-29 with 2 RBI off Danks.
Danks is having a solid start to 2010, but his 4-5, 5.13 ERA against the Twinkies does give me some pause. More pause, you ask? Yes, Pavano's 3-2, 2.86 ERA mark against the White Sox is another reason to wonder if this line is either a gift for Twins-backers, or screwy. It could very well be deflated because Danks is 3-1, 1.98 ERA so far this season, but this one definitely requires more digging. There's a play here, and we'll find it.
Blue Jays @ Red Sox (-115) with a total of 9.5
Lyle Overbay is 7-for-22 with a HR and 4 RBI off Wakefield since '05;
Adrian Beltre was 6-for-13 with 2 HR and 5 RBI off Marcum before 2010;
Mieke Lowell is 5-for-13 with 3 RBI off Marcum;
Victor Martinez is 4-for-8 with a HR and 2 RBI off Marcum;
Jason Varitek is 4-for-10 off Marcum.
I was really hoping we'd get a Josh Beckett sighting in this set, since Toronto just clubs that joker. Instead, we get Wakefield, which does give us a low line if we want Boston, or forces us to potentially pay chalk to back Marcum. Marcum tossed 7 innings of 1-run ball earlier this year against the Sox in a game the Jays lost 2-1. Can Wakefield hold the Jays to just a run? This might be a spot we could take Toronto.
Mariners (-112) @ Orioles with a total of 9
Franklin Gutierrez is 4-for-8 off Bergesen;
Ichiro is 4-for-11 off Bergesen.
This game, flat out, does not interest me. Rowland-Smith is not having a very good start, and Bergesen's is just as bad, though he somehow has 2 wins. I suppose the only number worth noting is that Bergesen has a 3.42 ERA against the Mariners, and Smith has a 6.75 ERA against the Orioles, but it's limited action all the way around. There might be a tiny bit of value on the home dog, here, but it's a match-up that just keeps yelling at me to pass.
Rays (-115) @ Angels with a total of 8
This is the marquee match-up of the day, or I suppose it's definitely in the top 2. Jered Weaver and David Price, both 4-1, Price with the slightly better ERA, but each with some tremendous numbers. Price is 0-1 against the Angels, but he's a new pitcher this year, and Weaver is a career 3-0 against Tampa. I honestly can't tell you why this total is set at 8, and not lower. That intrigues me. I wouldn't make a play on the side, since it feels like this one could be decided by a run. But, again, what's the deal with that total. Looks awfully high for a match-up of two of the top 5 or 6 pitchers in the AL.
Athletics @ Rangers (-120) with a total of 9
Kevin Kouzmanoff is a perfect 3-for-3 off Holland.
Gio Gonzalez shut down the Rangers in his brief work against them, and he's really starting to come into his own as a decent starting pitcher. Derek Holland, in his first start of 2010, is somehow a -120 favorite, despite going 8-13 last year with a 6.12 ERA. Holland is very young, throws hard, but has a long way to go to be fully ready to handle the Bigs. I liked Oakland yesterday, but didn't play them. I might just venture out there today. If nothing else, a lean to the A's, who continue to quietly play better than people realize.
Indians (-120) @ Royals with a total of 8.5
Russell Branyan is 3-for-7 with 3 RBI off Davies;
Asdrubal Cabrera is 3-for-9 with 3 RBI off Davies;
Jhonny Peralta is 4-for-9 with 2 RBI off Davies;
Mike Aviles is 3-for-10 off Carmona;
Alberto Callaspo is 3-for-7 off Carmona;
Jose Guillen is 4-for-9 with a HR and 4 RBI off Carmona;
David DeJesus is 8-for-25 with a HR off Carmona.
Despite a few strong numbers against Carmona, I have more faith in the Indian starter here than I do Davies. Kyle is 3-3, 6.18 against Cleveland, and even though the current Cleveland roster hasn't pummeled him, there are just teams that give a guy trouble. This line is fair, and might actually be a deal if Carmona can get back to his early-season form.
Tips and Trends
Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers
Braves: Atlanta will be looking to end their road trip on a high note by sweeping the Brewers. Atlanta has been terrible away from home this season, going 7-14. 2 of those 7 wins have come in Milwaukee, which proves just how rare the Braves road success has been this year. Atlanta is 6-6 in day games this season. The Braves have done well against losing teams this season, going 7-3 overall. The Braves are 10-11 against right handed pitchers this year, averaging 4.2 runs per game while batting only .231. P Derek Lowe will take the mound for Atlanta today, and he's struggled quite a bit this season. Lowe is 4-3 on the season, yet his numbers show he's been quite hittable. Lowe has an ERA of 6.16 and a WHIP of 1.658 this year. Lowe has had success against the Brewers in his career though, as he's 3-1 with a 3.25 ERA lifetime against them. The Braves are 1-7 in their last 8 games as a road underdog. Atlanta is 16-7 in Lowe's last 23 starts.
Braves are 10-3 last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 5-0 last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Key Injuries - 3B Chipper Jones (groin) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 3
Brewers (-155, O/U 8.5): Milwaukee has lost both of their home games since coming back from an extended road trip. Surprisingly the Brewers are really struggling at home this year, going 4-10 overall. The Brewers offense has been incredibly streaky, as they either score double digits in runs or are held to 3 runs or less. Milwaukee is averaging nearly 6 runs per game against right handed pitchers this season. The Brewers are 5-8 this season in games played during the day. P Yovani Gallardo will take the ball for Milwaukee today. The Brewers always feel more confident with their ace on the mound, and Gallardo is the true definition of an ace. Gallardo is 4-2 with a 3.07 ERA this season, including 50 strikeouts in 41 innings pitched. The Brewers are 5-0 in Gallardo's last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Brewers are 1-6 last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 9-2 last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.
Key Injuries - LF Ryan Braun (elbow) is doubtful.
CF Carlos Gomez (shoulder) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 4 (UNDER - Total of the Day)
Tampa Bay Rays at Anaheim Angels
Rays (-110, O/U 8): Tampa Bay snapped a rare losing streak, as they had lost 3 consecutive games until last night. The Rays took care of the Angels in easy fashion, tying up their series at 1-1. The rubber match is today, and it also happens to be the final game of a 9 game road trip. Tampa Bay has the best record in Baseball at 23-10. The Rays have proven with their early success that they are the most complete team in the majors. Tampa Bay has outstanding pitching, and a dynamic offense as well. The Rays had been slumping offensively before yesterday, as they had been held to 4 runs or fewer in 4 straight games. Left handed P David Price will take the ball for the Rays today. Price has been spectacular this season, going 4-1 with a 1.91 ERA and a WHIP of 0.992 this year. The Rays are 14-4 on the road this season. The Rays are 4-1 this season on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 this season.
Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
Under is 7-1-1 in Rays last 9 games as a favorite.
Key Injuries - 1B Carlos Pena (rest) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)
Angels: Anaheim is really struggling, as they have lost 9 of their past 12 games entering today. Losing is something the Angels are unfamiliar with, as they've been a winning team for most of the past decade. This could be the year a team other than the Angels wins the AL West, considering the poor play of the Angels. The Angels have a losing record at home this season, going 9-10. The Angels are 4-6 against left handed starters this season, scoring only 3.2 runs per game when facing lefties this year. The Angels are 5-6 in day games this year, batting only .234 in the process. P Jered Weaver is pitching like the ace of this Angels staff, as he is 4-1 with a 2.66 ERA and a WHIP of 1.045 this year. Weaver has dominated the Rays in his career, as he is 3-0 lifetime against them. The Angels are 7-1 in Weavers last 8 starts as a favorite.
Angels are 20-6 in their last 26 games as a home underdog.
Over is 6-1 in Angels last 7 games a home underdog.
Key Injuries - SS Maicer Izturis (shoulder) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 3