Wednesday Tips
By Kevin Rogers
It's a busy week for all teams around Major League Baseball, playing three separate series from Monday until this Sunday. Two-game sets continue on Wednesday with 15 new series starting, including three standout matchups in the American League. We'll start in the AL East with the Rays making their first visit of the season to the Bronx to battle the reigning champs.
Rays at Yankees - 7:05 PM EST
New York continues its homestand against another quality opponent, this time hosting the team with the best record in baseball. Tampa Bay has been dominant on the road with a 15-4 mark, while taking five of six series on the highway. The Rays look to avenge a home series defeat to the Yankees back in April.
Wade Davis (3-3, 3.38 ERA) is coming off losses in his last two starts for the Rays, falling as substantial favorites against the Mariners and A's. Davis hasn't received good run support as Tampa Bay has provided the righty with just six runs in his previous three starts. The last time Davis faced the Yankees, he allowed seven hits and four earned runs in six innings of a 10-0 home loss. CC Sabathia carried a no-hitter into the eighth inning of that blowout, the fifth time in Davis' seven starts the Rays have scored three runs or less.
The Yankees counter with A.J. Burnett (4-1, 3.31 ERA), who is coming off a strong performance against the Twins. Burnett scattered seven hits and three runs (two earned) in 6.2 innings of an 8-4 victory, lowering his ERA to 0.86 in three home starts. The Yankees are 5-1 in Burnett's six starts against the Rays dating back to 2009, including a 7-3 victory back on April 10. The 'over' has hit in each of the last four outings versus Tampa Bay, with the Yanks scoring 39 runs for Burnett.
New York has been an automatic run-line win when the Yankees are victorious, winning each of its 25 games by at least two runs. After taking the first three meetings in the Bronx last season, the Rays are 0-6 the last six matchups in New York, with five games finishing 'under' the total.
Twins at Red Sox - 7:10 PM EST
Boston returns home after a five-game road trip, hosting a Minnesota club that was beaten down on Tuesday at Toronto. The Twins took two of three at Target Field against the Red Sox in mid-April, but they head to Fenway Park where Minnesota is 1-7 the last eight trips to Beantown.
Clay Buchholz (4-3, 3.46 ERA) has actually pitched better on the road than at home, owning a 4.84 ERA at Fenway. The Red Sox have lost three of Buchholz's four home outings, including a 14-3 blowout against the Yankees in which the righty allowed nine hits and six runs in five innings of work. Buchholz has faced the Twins once in his career, finishing on the wrong side of a 7-3 road loss in 2008. The 25-year old gave up eight hits and seven earned runs in 4.1 innings, while walking five in that defeat.
Scott Baker (4-3, 4.93 ERA) has seen his ups and downs this season following a 15-9 campaign last season. It's very simple for Baker; if the righty puts together a quality start, the Twins win (4-0). On the flip side, if Baker does not provide a quality outing, Minnesota is going to lose (0-4). Baker's last two road starts have been less than impressive, allowing ten earned runs and 19 hits in losses at New York and Detroit. Last season, Baker was lit up at Boston, giving up ten hits and six earned runs in a 10-1 setback.
Minnesota is 9-4 this season in series openers, including a 5-0 mark if the Twins are off a loss. Boston owns a 4-8 mark when facing a right-handed starter after a left-handed starting pitcher, as the Sox close out their two-game set with Sabathia and the Yankees on Tuesday.
Angels at White Sox - 8:10 PM EST
Chicago picked up a road victory on Tuesday at Detroit, as the Sox look for back-to-back wins for the first time since April 25. The Angels try to bust out of a road funk in which the Halos have dropped nine of their last 11 on the highway.
The Sox send John Danks (3-2, 2.25 ERA) to the hill, as the lefty attempts to halt a two-game skid. Danks put together a pair of quality starts against the Blue Jays and Twins by tossing seven innings each time, but the Sox' offense tallied just two runs in those defeats. Six of Danks' seven starts have been quality ones, allowing two earned runs or less in six outings. Chicago is 2-4 in Danks' six career starts against Los Angeles, while going 0-3 at home.
Joe Saunders (2-5, 4.96 ERA) is coming off his best start of the season, tossing a four-hit shutout against the A's. The victory over Oakland was Saunders' first since an April 17 win at Toronto, only his second quality start of the season. The southpaw has allowed 50 hits in 45.1 innings, while owning a K/BB ratio of 1:1 (21/21). Saunders has pitched well against the White Sox in his career, putting together five straight quality starts dating back to 2007.
The White Sox are 0-8 the last eight games off a win, while going 2-5 this season at home off a victory. The Angels are 8-4-1 to the 'over' in series openers this season, including a 5-1 'over' mark on the road.
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NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Diego (23-16) at L.A. Dodgers (22-17)
Three days after getting swept by Los Angeles at home, the Padres make the short trek north to Dodger Stadium looking for payback when they send Jon Garland (4-2, 1.88 ERA) to the mound in the opener of a two-game series between the top two teams in the N.L. West. Meanwhile, Ramon Ortiz (1-1, 5.40) will try to lead the Dodgers to their 10th straight victory.
San Diego is coming off Tuesday’s 7-6, 12-inning loss to the Giants, losing four of five games on its homestand (all against N.L. West opponents). On the bright side, the Padres went 5-1 on their most recent road trip – the only loss coming in extra innings at Houston – and they’ve won seven of eight on the highway overall. Additionally, the Friars are on positive runs of 20-8 against winning teams, 9-4 on Wednesday and 8-3 in series openers.
Los Angeles dumped the Astros 7-3 on Tuesday, with Manny Ramirez, James Loney and Casey Blake all contributing two RBIs. The Dodgers, who started the season 8-14, have won a season-high nine in a row, and they’re 14-3 in their last 17 games to move five games over .500 and pull within one game of San Diego for first place in the N.L. West. Los Angeles is 12-6 at Dodger Stadium, including 5-1 in the last six.
Joe Torre’s troops have also won 11 of 12 against right-handed starters, four straight series openers and 56 of 82 against the N.L. West. However, the Dodgers have dropped 13 of 18 on Wednesday.
Los Angeles went to San Diego last weekend and scored victories of 4-3, 4-1 and 1-0, winning the latter contest on Sunday despite managing just two hits. The Dodgers are 11-6 in the last 17 head-to-head matchups overall and 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in Hollywood.
Garland and Ortiz matched up on Friday at Petco Park, and even though Garland (two runs allowed in six innings) outpitched Ortiz (three runs allowed in four innings) and left with a 3-2 lead, L.A. rallied for the 4-3 win on a two-run homer by Matt Kemp in the seventh inning. Despite the no-decision, Garland has been outstanding over his last six starts, going 4-0 with a 0.95 ERA (four earned runs in 38 innings). Prior to Friday, the Padres had won five straight games behind the veteran right-hander.
Garland is 2-2 with a 2.74 ERA in four road starts, but the Padres have scored just 11 runs in those four contests. Including Friday’s game, Garland is 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA in three career starts against the Dodgers. Also, Garland – who was traded from Arizona to Los Angeles last year and went 3-2 with a 2.72 ERA in six starts – is 3-1 with a 1.67 ERA in four starts at Dodger Stadium.
Ortiz made 14 relief appearances prior to getting the ball Friday in San Diego – his first big-league start in nearly three full years. Ortiz is 0-1 with a 5.93 ERA in seven relief outings at Dodger Stadium this year, allowing nine runs on 14 hits (three home runs) in 13 2/3 innings, and for his career he’s 4-2 with a 3.65 ERA in 13 games (four starts) in Los Angeles. Against the Padres, Ortiz – who turns 37 on Sunday – is 2-2 with a 4.68 ERA in six games (four starts).
San Diego is on “under” runs of 39-19-4 overall (9-1-1 last 11), 20-7-2 on the road, 34-16-2 against N.L. West foes, 27-11-4 against right-handed starters, 20-7-1 versus winning teams and 4-1 in Garland’s last five starts. L.A. carries “under” trends of 4-2 overall, 4-0 within the division and 6-2 against right-handed starters, but the over is 9-3 in the Dodgers’ last 12 at home and 4-1 in their last five on Wednesday.
Finally, the under has cashed in six straight Padres-Dodgers meetings, but the over is 9-4 in the last 13 clashes in L.A.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay (28-11) at N.Y. Yankees (25-13)
The two teams with the best records in baseball meet for the second time this season, with Rays rookie Wade Davis (3-3, 3.38 ERA) matching up against the Yankees’ A.J. Burnett (4-1, 3.31) in the opener of a two-game series at Yankee Stadium.
Tampa Bay headed north to the Bronx after Tuesday afternoon’s 6-2 victory over the Indians. Since suffering their first three-game losing streak of the season, the Rays have won four in a row and six of seven, and they own baseball’s best road record (15-4). Joe Maddon’s club is on additional surges of 39-16 overall, 21-6 against the A.L. East, 21-8 against right-handed starters and 11-4 when opening a series, and they’ve won eight straight Wednesday contests.
For the second straight game Tuesday, New York squandered a 5-0 lead against the Red Sox, only unlike Monday – when they scored four runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to steal an 11-9 victory – the Yankees’ rally fell short and they lost 7-6. New York is just 4-6 in its last 10 games, but it remains an MLB-best 13-4 at home. The defending champs are also on positive runs of 101-45 overall, 51-13 at Yankee Stadium, 45-16 against the A.L. East, 65-26 against right-handed starters, 45-12 at home versus righties and 5-1 in series openers.
These teams faced off in the first weekend of the regular season in Tampa, and the Yankees lost the opener before taking the final two games. New York is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings, including 6-0 at home. Going back several years, the Rays are just 24-59 in their last 83 trips to the Bronx (including old Yankee Stadium).
All three Yankees-Rays contests back in early April were blowouts (9-3, 10-0 and 7-3), and 15 of the last 17 meetings – including the last seven in a row – have been decided by multiple runs.
Davis is just 1-2 despite a 3.00 ERA in his last three starts, with the struggling Rays offense supporting him with just six total runs. The 24-year-old young right-hander has given up three runs or fewer in five of his last six outings and hasn’t allowed more than four runs in any of his seven starts this year. He’s 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in three road contests.
Davis faced the Yankees back on April 10 at home and surrendered four runs on seven hits in six innings, losing 10-0. He also started the 2009 regular-season finale against New York – also in Tampa Bay – and gave up five runs (three earned) in five innings of a 10-2 defeat. So he’s 0-2 with a 5.73 ERA against the Yanks.
Burnett bounced back from a disastrous start in Boston (nine runs allowed in 4 1/3 innings) with a strong effort against the Twins on Friday, allowing three runs (two earned) in 6 2/3 innings. However, he failed to get a decision, even though the Yankees rolled to an 8-4 victory. The veteran right-hander has given up two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts, including three of the last four, and he’s been dominant at home (2-0, 0.86 ERA in three starts, all New York victories).
Behind Burnett, the Yankees are on upticks of 12-4 overall, 18-4 at Yankee Stadium, 5-1 against the A.L. East and 5-0 on Wednesday. New York is also 4-0 in Burnett’s last four starts against the Rays, with Burnett allowing just six runs (four earned) over 25 innings (1.44 ERA) in those four games. Going back to July 2008 when he was with Toronto, Burnett has given up two runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts against the Rays, posting a 1.87 ERA.
Tampa Bay is on “under” streaks of 13-2-2 overall, 4-1-2 on the road and 7-1 against right-handed starters, but the Rays have also topped the total in nine of 13 against A.L. East foes and four of five on Wednesday. The under is 6-3 in New York’s last nine overall, 19-7-2 in its last 28 on Wednesday and 5-0-1 in Burnett’s last six Wednesday affairs. However, the Yankees are also on “over” runs of 7-4 at home, 6-0 against the A.L. East, 8-2 in Burnett’s last 10 starts and 7-2-1 in Burnett’s last 10 against the A.L. East.
The over has cashed in four straight in this rivalry and four straight with Burnett starting against the Rays. Conversely, the under was 5-1 in last year’s final six series clashes at Yankee Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
MLB RoundUp For 5/19
By Dan Bebe
National League
Cubs @ Phillies (-150) with a total of 10
Derrek Lee is 5-for-11 with 2 RBI off Moyer since '05;
Alfonso Soriano is 6-for-20 off Moyer since '05;
Ryan Theriot is 4-for-12 off Moyer;
Jimmy Rollins and Jayson Werth are each 2-for-3 off Gorzelanny.
Gorzelanny hasn't seen much of the Phils, and vice versa, but he's 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA against them. We can't draw too many conclusions, there, and he's actually been decent this year with a 3.60 ERA. His 1-4 record shows he hasn't been too lucky, and seems to be regressing a bit lately, too. Jamie Moyer is just 3-1 against the Cubs over his 45 year ML career, and he just keeps trucking along. This line is pretty fair, as the Phils are awfully tough anywhere, and moreso at home.
Brewers (-169) @ Pirates with a total of 9
No sense getting into player histories here, as Randy Wolf has already faced the Pirates twice this year, holding them to 2 runs in 14 innings, and though his team won the first game 20-0, the Brewers actually lost his second start thanks to another Brewers bullpen struggle. Most people are going to remember that Milwaukee beat the hell out of Pittsburgh in the first 4 meetings this year, but everyone needs to also recall that Pittsburgh won the most recent two meetings, and the Brewers have lost, I believe, 8 straight. This is Pittsburgh or nothin'.
Mets @ Nats (-145) with a total of 9
Henry Blanco is 4-for-11 with an RBI off Hernandez;
Luis Castillo is 4-for-11 off Hernandez;
Jeff Francoeur was 5-for-13 with a HR and 2 RBI off Hernandez before this season;
David Wright was 12-for-27 with 4 HR and 10 RBI off Hernandez since '05.
R.A. Dickey, one of the most enjoyable names in baseball, gets a starting nod. Desperate times, I guess? This line is pretty fair. Livan already shut the Mets out for 7 innings back on April 11th, the Nats are better than most people realize, and Dickey will be lucky to get through 5 innings. Fair lines mean somewhat minimal value, though if I had to offer a lean, I'd lean to the favorite, since NY hasn't quite mastered winning on the road.
Reds @ Braves (-150) with a total of 8.5
Jay Bruce is 2-for-2 off Kawakami, with both hits homers and 4 driven in;
Joey Votto is 2-for-2 with 3 RBI off Kawakami;
Brian McCann is 7-for-14 with a HR and 3 RBI off Harang.
This line seems all kinds of nuts. Harang has been coming on a bit, Kawakami is 0-6 on the season, and 0-2 against the Reds, and the Reds are among the 3 or 4 hottest teams in baseball. Can it possibly be this easy? I mean, I know Harang's season ERA is higher than Kawakami's, but people can't really be that blind, can they? I desperately want to take the Reds to keep up the strong play, but the fact that Harang is a dog of more than +100 is baffling. Lean to Reds unless this line goes up.
Rockies (-115) @ Astros with a total of 9
Brad Hawpe is 3-for-4 with 3 RBI off Paulino;
Todd Helton is 2-for-5 with a HR and 2 RBI off Paulino;
Greg Smith brings his sweet 6.35 ERA into Houston to square off with winless Paulino, who is 0-1 against the Rockies, and has an 8.10 ERA against Colorado in his career. Paulino has actually been alright lately, moving him out of the "Worst pitcher in the Bigs" throne and down to "A bad pitcher with no wins." If Greg Smith was more reliable, I might be inclined to back Colorado, though looking at his season numbers, he did make serviceable appearances against the weak-hitting Padres, Braves, and Mets. The Astros can't hit, either, and if the Rockies can give Smith 4 runs of support, that might be enough.
Marlins @ Cardinals (-180) with a total of 8
Felipe Lopez is 6-for-17 off Sanchez.
This one could go either way, and I'd be inclined to play the underdog at this price, but the Marlins are a team dealing with some mild turmoil related to Hanley Ramirez not running after a pop fly he kicked into the left field corner. Yes, they won behind Josh Johnson's dominant performance, but what of a road game where we'll see how the clubhouse is dealing with the situation? Garcia's 1.42 season ERA can't last forever, but Florida hasn't seen him yet, and that puts Garcia at an advantage. Pass.
Giants @ D'backs (-155) with a total of 9.5
Aubrey Huff is 2-for-5 off Kennedy;
Stephen Drew is 6-for-9 with a HR and 3 RBI off Wellemeyer;
Conor Jackson is 3-for-7 with an RBI off Wellemeyer.
This line feels pretty fair to me. Kennedy has been on a very nice pitching roll, and Wellemeyer has been mostly a disappointment so far. There are a couple D'backs that have hit Wellemeyer, though not enough to call it a disaster in the making, but damn if those Giants can't seem to score. I know the Padres just have San Francisco's number, but I get the feeling road games in general are probably not going to be kind to SF if they keep putting up 2 runs a night.
Padres @ Dodgers (-117) with a total of 8
No worries about player match-ups here, since you can just dial back 5 blogs to see how Garland and the Dodgers look against one another. Jon pitched well enough to win in San Diego, allowing just 2 runs, but the Dodgers did one better and took that game 4-3. Now, the rematch. You guys know how I feel about rematches, and without Andre Ethier, the Dodgers lose a monster cog against those righthanded starters. I'm a little nervous for LA, though for some reason, I feel like they snap their losing streak when an ace drops the ball, not when Ortiz goes 4 innings and allows 2 runs. No real leans, here, though the Under looks interesting with that number at 8. Be careful, here.
American League
Royals @ Indians (-125) with a total of 9.5
Yuny Betancourt is 3-for-9 off Masterson with an RBI;
Shin-Soo Choo is 8-for-17 with 3 RBI off Meche;
Jhonny Peralta is batting .372 off Meche in 43 AB, with 2 HR and 5 RBI since '05.
Interestingly, these two starters are a combined 0-8, Meche with an ERA over 7, and Masterson with a mark right around 6. Ugly. However, looking at recent results, Meche looks like he might be getting healthier. His last 2 starts have been solid, allowing 3 runs in 8 innings, then tossing 6 frames of one-run ball his last time out. Insane, right? With that in mind, and both teams playing a little better than they did a month ago, and Masterson clanking his way through this full season of starting, I lean to Meche. It almost made me ill to say it, but it's the smart play.
Rays @ Yankees (-155) with a total of 9.5
Carl Crawford is 12-for-36 off Burnett since '05;
Evan Longoria is 8-for-25 with a HR off Burnett;
Alex Rodriguez is 2-for-3 with a HR and 3 RBI off Davis.
Burnett has a tremendous career ERA against the Rays of just 2.76, while Davis is 0-2 against the Yanks, including losing a start against them back in April. Burnett, by the way, beat the Rays in April to go to 12-4 against the Rays. This is a pretty cheap price, since Burnett had his ERA balloon in a bad outing against the Sox, and considering the success NY seems to have at home, I just can't fathom why playing them here is a bad idea. The Rays don't tend to play all that well in the Bronx, either.
Twins @ Red Sox (-130) with a total of 9.5
The current Twins are a combined 8-for-17 off Buccholz;
Adrian Beltre is 7-for-22 with a HR off Baker;
J.D. Drew is 4-for-6 off Baker;
Mike Lowell is 3-for-5 with a HR and 2 RBI off Baker.
Scott Baker is such the standard Twins starter. Doesn't throw that hard, doesn't walk many, doesn't strike out a ton, counts on his defense, but in a very hitter-friendly park like Fenway, that seems like a recipe for disaster. This total is slightly inflated, but I still sort of like the Over, as Buccholz stunk in his brief work against the Twins, and Baker hasn't shut down too many of the Boston regulars. Probably the safer move is to Pass.
Orioles @ Rangers (-155) with a total of 9.5
Ty Wigginton is 1-for-3 with a HR off Harden;
Ian Kinsler is 4-for-11 off Guthrie;
Michael Young is 4-for-12 with a HR and 2 RBI off Guthrie.
For as many struggles as Guthrie has had over the years, he's 3-0 against the Rangers. Of course, Harden has a 0.69 ERA against the O's, so it's not like either starter has a monster advantage. I do like the baseball the Rangers are playing lately as they've warmed up a tad, and Baltimore stinks, but at the same time, laying -155 is a hefty price for a pitcher that rarely goes 6 innings.
Angels @ White Sox (-150) with a total of 8.5
Bobby Abreu is 4-for-9 with 2 HR off Danks;
Paul Konerko is 4-for-13 with a HR off Saunders;
Jayson Nix is 3-for-5 with all 3 HRs, yikes;
Mark Teahen is 4-for-10 with 2 RBI off Saunders.
Danks has pitched very, very well this season, but Saunders is coming off his best start of 2010. Is that the beginning of the turnaround for big Joe? Maybe, though neither pitcher has been all that bad against this particular opponent. Looking at the match-ups, it would seem that the White Sox have the edge in historical data, so let's just leave this one alone.
Tigers (-125) @ Athletics with a total of 7
Gerald Laird is 5-for-12 with 2 RBI off Braden;
Magglio Ordonez is 4-for-13 with 2 HR and 5 RBI off Braden.
I would love to back Detroit here at such a cheap price, but I still can't fully trust the Tigers on the road. Verlander is ramping up, Braden is a rising star, and everything about this game feels just about right. If I had to lean in any direction, I'd probably lean to the better offense, and that's Detroit, but these west coast swings are never easy, no matter the club.
Blue Jays @ Mariners (-138) with a total of 7
Not a ton of historical data, here, though Fister appears to have allowed 3 runs in 5 innings (based on his 5.40 ERA against Toronto). Cecil has never faced the Mariners. So, Fister's 1.72 ERA is getting jammed up against Cecil's 5.46, the two teams' offenses are compared, Toronto's is better, and that's why Seattle isn't that large of a favorite. Toronto has been quite adept at winning on the road this year, and while I'd love to back Fister to shut them down, that long ball can be deadly. TINY lean to the Mariners, but this is about 6th on my list of leans.
Wednesday's Late Night Tips
By Judd Hall
There is no shortage of baseball on the card for us to peruse on Wednesday, which means there are more than enough chances for you to fall behind or make a killing at the betting shops. And we’ll have three late games on the schedule that will help us either get back to breaking even or fatten our bankroll. Let’s take a look at two of those tilts.
Tigers (22-16, +734) at Athletics (19-20, -4) – 10:05 p.m. EDT
Detroit has gone on a strong 4-2 run in its last six games of the season. Yet you don’t hear anything about the Tigers right now thanks to Minnesota, who are holding a two-game lead over the Tigers in the American League Central.
The Tigers will aim to get a quick leg up in this two-game set with Justin Verlander (4-2, 3.88) getting the starting nod. Verlander has gotten back on track with three straight winning starts that yielded 20 strikeouts to just eight walks and an earned run average of 1.71. Detroit has fared well when its ace starts on the road this season, evidenced by a 3-1 mark in his four appearances away from home.
Oakland is in a bit of a slide right now, having lost five of its last seven tests. Those contests all coming after Dallas Braden’s (4-3, 3.50) perfect game against the Rays. Braden regressed in his last start, giving up four earned runs on seven hits in eight innings of work at Los Angeles on May 14. Of course, that shouldn’t surprise anyone since he is 1-3 with a 4.18 ERA in his last four starts of the season.
It’s hard to think that Braden will break out of his funk in this game. He’s has gone 2-2 with a 7.34 ERA in six career starts against the Tigers.
Verlander hasn’t been anything to write home about when pitching at Oakland Coliseum, going 1-3 with a 3.38 ERA in five career starts.
Most betting shops are listing Detroit as a $1.20 road “chalk” (risk $120 to win $100) with a total of 7 ½.
The Tigers have gone 3-6 in their last nine games as a road squad facing southpaws.
Detroit is 8-11 on the highway this season with the ‘over’ going 11-7-1.
Oakland is 14-7 in 21 home tests so far in 2010. The ‘under’ has gone 12-8-1 in those tests.
Padres (23-15, +980) at Dodgers (21-17, -152) – 10:10 p.m. EDT
Perhaps we’re starting to see the Dodgers come around.
Los Angeles has won nine of its last 10 games to offset a 6-8 run before this recent surge. As good as this run is for Joe Torre’s club, they’re still sitting in third place in the National League West right now.
This era of good feeling might be short lived for the Dodgers as Andre Ethier is set to be placed on the disabled list with a broken knuckle in his right pinkie finger. That means LA will be without the NL’s leading hitter as he’s leads in batting average (.392), home runs (11) and runs batted in (38).
While Ramon Ortiz (1-1, 5.40) can’t swing the bat; he’ll do his part to keep Los Angeles in the game with his work on the mound. Ortiz wasn’t all that great in his first start of the season, giving up three earned runs in four innings of work on May 14 at San Diego. As lackluster as those number are, it was just enough for the Dodgers to win 4-3.
San Diego still holds the top spot in the NL West with little help from its offense. The Padres are 26th in Major League Baseball in team batting averaging, hitting .236 with just 28 homers. It’s a good thing that they have some great pitching right now.
The Fathers have the best ERA in the Senior Circuit for starting pitchers this season (2.67) and second only to San Francisco in opponents batting average (.231). San Diego Ace Jon Garland (4-2, 1.88) will take to the mound to help keep up the pace.
Garland has the added motivation for this start after losing on May 14 at home to the Dodgers. He did outpitch Ortiz in that game though, allowing two earned runs on six hits in six innings.
Los Angeles has been posted as a $1.10 home favorite with a total of eight.
San Diego has gone 5-4 this season as a road pup against clubs in the NL West. The Pads have won four of their last five in this spot. The ‘under’ has gone 6-1-2 in this situation as well.
The Dodgers are 5-1 in six tilts as home faves against NL West foes in 2010, including a 4-0 run recently. The ‘over’ is 5-1 in this situation as well.
LA is 10-4 when listed as a home “chalk” this year with the ‘over’ going 10-4.
San Diego is just 8-6 this season as a road pup, but they have won four of it last five in this spot. The ‘under’ is 9-3-2.
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Diamond Trends - Wednesday
By Vince Akins
Rockies at Astros – The Rockies are 0-6 since August 28, 2009 on the road after a loss and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $640 when playing against. The Astros are 0-10 since October 04, 2009 after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $1075 when playing against. The Astros are 0-9 since August 04, 2009 when Felipe Paulino starts at home for a net profit of $985 when playing against.
Tigers at Athletics – The Tigers are 6-0 since May 03, 2009 when Justin Verlander starts as a favorite in May for a net profit of $600. The Athletics are 5-0 since April 13, 2009 when Dallas Braden starts as a home dog for a net profit of $640.
Reds at Braves – The Braves are 0-5 since April 16, 2009 when Kenshin Kawakami starts after more strike outs than hits allowed and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $530 when playing against. The Braves are 0-4 since August 14, 2009 as a home favorite vs a team that has won at least their last two games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $615 when playing against.
Marlins at Cardinals – The League is 0-10 since April 13, 2010 as a 140+ dog after a 5+ run win and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The Marlins are 0-5 since April 21, 2009 when Anibal Sanchez starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $625 when playing against. The Cardinals are 9-0 since May 07, 2009 at home after a win in which they left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $900
Giants at Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks are 9-0 since April 06, 2009 as a home 140+ favorite and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $900
Royals at Indians – The Royals are 0-6 since April 21, 2009 on the road after a one run loss and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $645 when playing against. The Indians are 0-7 since September 11, 2009 when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $705 when playing against. The Indians are 0-6 since August 25, 2009 when Justin Masterson starts after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $600 when playing against.
Blue Jays at Mariners – The Blue Jays are 6-0 since September 26, 2009 after a win in which they drew 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $770. The Blue Jays are 0-6 since May 20, 2009 when Brett Cecil starts as a dog after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $600 when playing against.
Mets at Nationals – The Nationals are 6-0 since September 28, 2009 at home after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $715.
Cubs at Phillies – The Phillies are 10-0 since September 08, 2009 after a one run loss for a net profit of $1010. The Phillies are 0-5 since May 25, 2009 when Jamie Moyer starts as a favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches and ts:site=away for a net profit of $650 when playing against.
Brewers at Pirates – The League is 0-7 since June 23, 2009 as a home dog vs a team that has lost at least their last four games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $700 when playing against.
Orioles at Rangers – The Orioles are 4-0 since September 11, 2009 as a dog vs a team that has won at least their last two games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $690. The Orioles are 0-6 since May 30, 2009 after a win in which their starter pitched at least 8 innings for a net profit of $645 when playing against. The Orioles are 0-6 since August 31, 2009 when Jeremy Guthrie starts as a 140+ dog after a quality start for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Rangers are 9-0 since April 28, 2009 as a favorite after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $900.
Twins at Red Sox – The Twins are 0-7 since May 19, 2009 when Scott Baker starts as a dog vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Twins are 6-0 since September 07, 2009 on the road after a loss and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $625. The Twins are 5-0 since June 23, 2009 as a dog after a loss in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $630.
Angels at White Sox – The Angels are 0-8 since June 30, 2009 as a road dog when they won the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Angels are 0-6 since May 15, 2009 when Joe Saunders starts on the road after throwing more than 100 pitches at home for a net profit of $620 when playing against. The White Sox are 0-6 since August 06, 2009 at home after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $885 when playing against.
Rays at Yankees – The Rays are 6-0 since May 01, 2009 as a dog after a win in which they drew 5+ walks for a net profit of $765. The Yankees are 14-0 since April 17, 2009 at home after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $1400. The Yankees are 9-0 since June 12, 2009 at home after a loss and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $900. The Yankees are 5-0 since June 02, 2009 when A.J. Burnett starts at home after walking at least 4 and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $500.