Late Night Preview
By Josh Jacobs
For Wednesday this is what the MLB card will bring in terms of late night matchups.
L.A. Angels at Seattle – 10:10 p.m. EST
Right out of the gate, books have opened the home town Mariners as a $1.30 underdog. A total of nine runs has also been attached to this matchup. Seattle began the season going 7-2 in its first nine games only to have taken five wins out of 17 games during May. It’s been a quick trip to the dry cleaners for backers.
Now sitting at -3.06 units on the season, the M’s find themselves battling problems on both the offensive and defensive fronts. The big bang came when manager Don Wakamatsu announced that closer Brandon Morrow would no longer be the closer, at least for the time being. Morrow has blown two save attempts in the last three outings while giving up four hits and two runs in a 10-6 loss against the Angels on Monday, only compounding the difficulties.
At least gamblers can attest that a 5-2-1 record on the ‘under’ in the last eight is worth getting out of the chair to make the trip to the window. Guess when you’re only scoring 3.8 runs per game (during the eight game stretch) the ‘under’ is not such a tough task to accomplish.
Seattle will give it a whirl with starting slinger, Chris Jakubauskas (2-4, 7.13). The six-foot plus pitcher has been giving up a world of runs since making his first start. In the last three appearances, Jakubauskas has surrendered 16 earned runs. His last start against L.A. was on Apr. 16 for which the starter threw 5.1 innings, giving up five hits and two runs in a 5-1 loss.
The Angels have seen more winning streaks then losing slides this season but that’s not to say that a 1-3 performance check in the last four is cash money. At least when installed as the favorite in the last nine games, the Halos are 7-2. That translates into a disparaging 5-9 record in the last 14 games when set as the ‘dog.
But with righty, Ervin Santana (0-0, 5.40 ERA) on the mound, L.A. doesn’t have to worry about fighting off the odds as the underdog. Santana made ’09 debut against Boston last Thursday, allowing three runs off seven hits. Remember that Santana dealt with elbow pain in the beginning of the year. But if there’s good news it’s that the Angels’ starter was 2-0 with a 1.72 ERA last season in Safeco Field.
Already this season, the Mariners hold a 4-3 edge in head-to-head games. The ‘over’ is 4-2 in the last six meetings.
N.Y. Mets at L.A. Dodgers – 10:10 p.m. EST
Sportsbook.com has opened the Dodgers as $1.40 home favorites as a total of 9 ½-runs is the consensus among most books.
The Mets haven’t played horribly per se, but the season hasn’t necessarily gone as planned. Without delving into every single piece of this corky puzzle let’s begin by stating that New York has been a totals machine, chalking up a 9-3 record on the ‘over’ in the last 12. Of course to understand the future we must look into the past and that’s where we see numbers that are tough to gage. For instance, New York has surrendered a consistent 4.5 runs per game in the last 24 and have crossed home plate for over five runs in the same stint. But 14 of those games have seen the Mets defense allow four or more runs and eight games surrendering six or more runs. So to say that the pitching game has been spot on would be highly inaccurate.
And that leads us to veteran Livan Hernandez (3-1, 5.59) starting off the night for the Mets. Hernandez hasn’t necessarily been unstoppable but as a totals player, a 5-2 record on the ‘over’ has been consistent. This has been possible thanks to books averaging a set total of just over nine runs. The end result has been games averaging a combined total of 12.1 runs per game.
The Dodgers, who have been on somewhat of a hot streak by wrangling up five of the last six games, will send out starter Eric Stults (4-1, 3.82). The southpaw has given up over three runs just once this season and his offense has been able to produce 8.3 runs per game in his four victories. In his last start on Friday, Stults only survived five innings, allowing three earned runs on five hits. His career versus the Mets has been shallow, appearing in just three starts and working for a 1-1 record with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP.
The Dodgers have a strangle hold in home games, going 41-14 in their last 55 home games. The Mets were able to get the leg up on L.A. last season as a 4-1 record in their last five meetings indicates.
Extra Innings
-- The final late night contest (for us East Coast folks) will involve a contest between San Francisco and San Diego at 10:05 p.m. EST. Most books have opened the Padres as $1.30 home favorites. A total of eight runs is currently being listed on the board.
-- The Padres have listed Chad Gaudin (0-3, 4.91) as their starting pitcher. So far winless on the season, Gaudin is coming off an awkward loss in Chicago for which the righty surrendered just one hit but four runs and seven base on balls. Gaudin has walked at least three batters in every start this season. But this shouldn’t come as a surprise as the six-year vet was clocked in giving up 100 walks in 34 starts back in 2007 (almost three walks per game).
-- The Giants will counter by sending out Jonathan Sanchez (1-3, 5.06) into battle. Sanchez has been ruffed up in his last three starts, accounting for 13 earned runs allowed. And issuing 15 walks in the same three starts hasn’t been advantageous for the three-year left-hander.
-- The split stats aren’t too difficult to map in San Diego’s dugout as the bats have struggled in the first quarter of the season. This is a team who’s swinging wildly, making contact for just a .236 BA. Against southpaw pitchers, that BA number dips to .222, with just a .294 on base percentage.
-- In the first three games of the season between each other, the Pads were able to sweep their intrastate rival, outscoring the Giants, 19-7. Even as $1.07 ‘dogs versus Tim Lincecum (who’s coming off a 10 hit, five run pounding against the Mets), San Diego was able to pull in six runs.
-- San Fran is still 11-5 in its last 16 head-to-head meetings with the ‘over’ at 8-1 in the last nine meetings.
vegasinsider.com
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Chicago Cubs (21-16) at St. Louis (22-17)
Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter (1-0, 0.00) is set to return to a big-league mound for the first time in more than a month when he pitches against Ryan Dempster (3-2, 4.65) and the Cubs in the middle game of a three-game set at Busch Stadium.
St. Louis snapped a three-game slide with Tuesday’s 3-0 victory over Chicago. Despite yesterday’s triumph, the Cardinals remain on slides of 5-10 overall, 3-6 at home, 3-8 against right-handed starters, 2-7 against winning teams and 2-5 versus N.L. Central rivals. The only positives for Tony LaRussa’s squad: It is 4-1 in its last five Wednesday outings and 19-7 in its last 26 as a home chalk.
Even though they came up short on Tuesday, the Cubs are still 11-5 in their last 16 games, yet they’ve split six games on the highway during this stretch. They’re also 5-2 in their last seven against right-handed starters, but they’ve lost seven of their last eight as an underdog.
This is the third series of the year between these hated rivals, with St. Louis now holding a slim 4-3 lead.
Carpenter was pulled from his most recent start on April 14 at Arizona after three scoreless innings because of a pulled ribcage muscle that landed the oft-injured right-hander on the disabled list. He’s allowed just one unearned run and five hits with two walks and nine strikeouts in 10 innings of work, including a 2-1 home victory over the Pirates in his 2009 debut on April 9.
Although Carpenter hasn’t pitched much in the last 18 months because of injuries, the Cardinals still sport several positive streaks with the former Cy Young winner on the mound, including 75-29 overall, 40-13 at home, 52-21 as a favorite and 36-15 against division foes. In 14 career starts against Chicago, Carpenter is 7-3 with a 3.08 ERA, and St. Louis is 4-1 in his last five home outings versus the Cubs.
Dempster is coming off Thursday’s 11-3 home victory over the Padres, as he yielded just two runs and three hits in seven innings. However, the veteran right-hander has struggled on the road this year, going 1-2 with a 5.34 ERA in five outings. In fact, Chicago has lost six of Dempster’s last seven road starts and seven of his last eight when he’s an underdog.
Dempster has faced the Cardinals twice already this season, getting a no-decision in both games as he gave up a total of seven runs in 12 innings (5.25 ERA), with the Cubs winning 7-5 at home and losing 4-3 on the road. Dempster is 6-5 with a 4.71 ERA and 15 saves in 39 lifetime appearances (13 starts) against St. Louis.
The over is 5-2 in Dempster’s last seven starts overall, 4-1 in his last five on Wednesday, 4-1 in Carpenter’s last five overall and 5-1 in Carpenter’s last six Wednesday affairs. However, with Carpenter pitching, the under is on streaks of 35-17-1 at home and 4-1 when facing Chicago in St. Louis.
The over is 4-1-1 in the season series so far, but the under is still 5-1-1 in the last seven battles at Busch Stadium. For Chicago, the over is on streaks of 6-2-1 on the road, 5-2 against right-handed starters and 11-5-1 as a road underdog. ... Conversely, the Cardinals carry “under” trends of 4-2 overall (all against the N.L. Central) and 7-2-1 on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Toronto (27-15) at Boston (22-17)
Blue Jays rookie Brett Cecil (2-0, 1.80) goes for his third straight victory when the southpaw makes his first ever appearance on the Fenway Park mound, while the Red Sox will counter with Brad Penny (3-1, 6.69).
Boston eked out a 2-1 victory over Toronto last night in the first of several meetings between these A.L. East foes. The Jays had a four-game winning streak snapped with that result, yet they’ve still surrendered three runs or fewer in eight of their last nine games, including the last six in a row. Cito Gaston’s crew is on solid surges of 12-6 overall, 4-1 against right-handed starters and 16-6 in the second game of a series. However, the Rays are just 5-7 in their last 12 road games and 1-5 in their last six as an underdog.
Boston has dropped four of five … The Red Sox offense has been pedestrian of late, producing four runs or fewer in seven of the last eight games, and they’ve gone nine straight contests without tallying more than five runs. Still, Boston carries positive trends of 78-33 at home, 17-7 as a favorite, 8-2 against southpaw starters, 38-18 at home against lefties and 5-1 in divisional contests.
Boston is 5-1 in the last six clashes with Toronto.
Cecil, who was called up at the beginning of this month, has surrendered a total of five runs (four earned) in his first three big-league starts, walking four and whiffing 15 in 20 innings. He did give up a season-high three runs – including his first two home runs – in six innings in his most recent start against the White Sox on Friday, but still earned a 6-3 home win. In the left-hander’s lone road start, he scattered five hits and two walks over eight scoreless innings en route to a 5-0 victory at Oakland on May 10.
Penny has been idle since Thursday when he gave up four runs in 6 1/3 innings at the Angels, getting a no-decision as Boston eventually lost 5-4 in 12 innings, dropping to 1-3 in Penny’s last four starts. The veteran right-hander, in his first season with the Red Sox, is 2-0 in three starts at Fenway Park despite a bloated 7.63 ERA, with Boston winning all three games.
Penny pitched against Toronto twice in interleague play with the Dodgers back in 2007, allowing one earned run in each start while totaling 14 2/3 innings (1.23 ERA). He’s faced the Jays four times, but in the last three he’s 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA.
Toronto is on “over” stretches of 10-5 as an underdog, 14-7 on the road and 5-0 on Wednesday. Boston is 6-1-1 “under” in its last eight overall, but otherwise the Sox are riding “over” streaks of 7-4-1 at home, 17-7-2 as a chalk, 11-4 versus southpaw starters, 17-5 on Wednesday and 2-0-1 with Penny pitching at Fenway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
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Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
Wednesday, May 20
Texas at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EDT). AL strikeout leader Justin Verlander pitches for the Tigers against Rangers lefty Matt Harrison in a matchup of division leaders. Harrison has won four straight starts, including a 22-inning scoreless streak.
STARS
Tuesday
-Alex Rodriguez, Yankees, homered for the fourth straight game, connecting for a two-run shot in the first inning in New York's 9-1 win over Baltimore.
-Joel Pineiro, Cardinals, threw a three-hitter for his first shutout in six seasons and first complete game since 2006 as St. Louis snapped a three-game slide with a 3-0 victory over the Cubs.
-Casey Blake, Dodgers, hit a go-ahead three-run homer in the sixth inning to lift Los Angeles to a 5-3 win over the Mets.
-Dontrelle Willis, Tigers, earned his first victory in nearly 20 months allowing one hit while working into the seventh inning in a 4-0 win against the Rangers.
-Jair Jurrjens, Braves, pitched seven strong innings and lowered his ERA to 1.96 to help Atlanta beat Colorado 8-1.
-Matt Holliday, Athletics, hit a three-run homer during a four-run 11th inning to help the Athletics beat the Rays 4-1.
STOPPER
Chicago White Sox ace Mark Buehrle improved to 6-1 on the season with a strong outing against Minnesota. The White Sox are 7-1 in his starts this season compared to 9-21 when he doesn't pitch. He scattered eight hits and gave up two runs.
TURNAROUND
After giving up 47 runs in their last four games, the Oakland Athletics gave up just one in 11 innings against the Tampa Bay Rays. The A's had been outscored 47-13 during the four-game losing streak in which their starting pitchers had yielded 31 runs (23 earned) in 13 innings.
WELCOME BACK
After having three days off to regroup, David Ortiz returned to Boston's lineup and went 0 for 3 with a walk and saw his batting average fall to .203. He has yet to hit a homer in 133 at-bats this season - the longest homerless slump of his career. ... Slumping Mariners slugger Adrian Beltre was also in the lineup one day after manager Don Wakamatsu rested him. The third baseman was hitless in four at-bats with two strikeouts. He is now in an 0-for-17 slump.
CAPITAL COLLAPSE
Washington became the fourth team in major league history to score at least five runs in each game of a six-game losing streak, according to STATS, LLC. The Nationals lost 8-5 in 10 innings to Pittsburgh after they rallied to tie the game with a run in the ninth, but another letdown from a bullpen with a collective 1-14 record allowed them to join the 1929 Pirates, 2004 Cincinnati Reds and 2005 Texas Rangers with such a streak.
GRAND COMPANY
A night after Jason Kendall got his 2,000th career hit, Colorado's Todd Helton became the 255th player to reach that plateau.
NO SUPPORT
Barry Zito pitched his first complete game since Aug. 7, 2003, but early homers did him in a 2-1 defeat. He held San Diego to five hits while walking four and striking out three. Zito has received the lowest run support in the majors. The Giants have scored only 10 runs in his eight starts, an average of 1.25.
SPEAKING
"Right now I'm thinking about 2,001. They say the first 2,000 are easy. The third is the tough part, but I'm not worried about that now. I'm worried about beating the Braves tomorrow.'' - Rockies first baseman Todd Helton after getting his 2,000th hit Tuesday night.
Wednesday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
By Covers.com
Streaking
Wandy Rodriguez (4-2, 1.90 ERA), Houston Astros
The left-hander is 2-1 with a major league-best 0.67 home ERA in four starts in Houston this year and 4-2 with a 0.87 ERA in his last eight starts at Minute Maid Park dating to Aug. 26.
Though Rodriguez is just 3-5 with a 4.55 ERA in 12 career games - 11 starts - against the Brewers, he's 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA in three home starts against them. Milwaukee, however, has won two of those games.
Rodriguez made his last start on the road, striking out a career-high 11 while allowing three runs - two earned - and five hits through seven innings of a 5-3 victory over Colorado on Thursday. The Astros (17-20) improved to 6-2 in games started by Rodriguez, one of only two pitchers in the majors to throw more than 25 innings without surrendering a home run.
Brett Cecil (2-0, 1.80 ERA), Toronto Blue Jays
Rookie Brett Cecil makes his first appearance against the Red Sox and his fourth start since being called up May 1 due to a spate of injuries to Toronto's rotation.
The 22-year-old left-hander, though, has been effective. Cecil has won his last two starts and allowed three runs - coming on two homers - in six innings of an 8-3 victory over the Chicago White Sox on Friday.
"I'm having a lot of fun up here," said Cecil, who's conceded five runs in 20 innings over his four starts. "I'm enjoying the experience. Hopefully it continues."
Slumping
Jamie Moyer (3-3, 8.15 ERA), Philadelphia Phillies
The 46-year-old Moyer takes the mound for the Phillies looking to become the oldest pitcher to reach 250 wins. He hasn't been close to reaching the milestone lately.
Since allowing one run in six innings of a 13-2 win over Florida on April 26, Moyer has been tagged for 19 runs and 22 hits - including six homers - over 12 1-3 innings in his three May starts. Last Wednesday, the left-hander yielded seven runs and eight hits in 4 1-3 innings of a 9-2 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
"I don't think he's right," Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said. "His command comes and goes. He has a hard time getting a feel for where he wants the ball to go. I've seen him go through stretches like this. I know how bad he wants to do good."
In his last start against Cincinnati (20-18) on June 27, 2007, Moyer allowed three runs and three hits with eight strikeouts in six innings of a 9-6 loss, but wasn't a factor in the decision. That was his first appearance against the Reds since 1991.
His last victory over Cincinnati came on May 27, 1987 - career victory No. 12.
John Danks (2-3, 4.82 ERA), Chicago White Sox
If Danks is looking for a spark to help end his recent struggles, he need only think back to the last time he faced the Minnesota Twins.
The left-hander hopes to avoid a fourth straight defeat while helping the White Sox extend the Twins' season-high losing streak to six games Wednesday night at U.S. Cellular Field.
After allowing two runs in his first three starts, Danks (2-3, 4.82 ERA) is 0-3 with an 8.84 ERA over his last four outings.
The 24-year-old Danks, who went 12-9 with a 3.32 ERA in his second major league season a year ago, gave up seven runs and nine hits in three innings of an 8-3 loss at Toronto on Friday.
"I wish I had an answer for it," Danks told the White Sox's official Web site of his slump. "(I) go out there thinking about giving us a chance to win games."
Though Danks is 3-3 with a 5.61 ERA in eight starts against the Twins, his most recent will go down as one of the more memorable moments in White Sox history.
In the tiebreaker to decide the AL Central champion on Sept. 30, Danks allowed two hits in eight innings of a 1-0 win over Minnesota to clinch the division title and send Chicago to the postseason for the first time since winning the World Series in 2005.
"I think it's one of the best games he's ever thrown," White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen said.
American League Research
By Indiancowboy
Texas vs. Detroit
Give Willis and the Tigers credit. They win 4-0 yesterday although McCarthy didn't pitch that bad either. Texas had won 7 of 8 coming into that game. Detriot has won 7 of their last 10 and they are slowing starting to move up in their division as well as they are 21-16 overall this year. After starting the year 0-2, Harrison has won his last 4 contests including giving up 2 runs over his last 23 innings pitching back to back complete games for the Rangers. Verlander is 3-0 over his last 4 starts giving up just 3 runs in his last 29 innings. A small lean on the Under here as both pitchers seem to be in a groove right now, but the Rangers didn't put up a run on the board yesterday so that makes me a bit weary for a bounce-back for them. Bear in mind that Harrison didn't win in his first start at Comercia Park and lost 3-4 while Verlander is a solid 4-1 with a 2.33er against the Rangers.
Baltimore vs. NYY
The Yankees won 9-1 yesterday and now send Hughes to the mound today. Guthrie comes off a 9-5 win at KC although he didn't pitch exceptionally well there giving up 4 runs in 5 innings. Hughes bounced-back well against Minnesota helping his team win 5-4 despite picking up a ND. Baltimore has lost their last 3 of 4 and the Yanks have won their last 7 in a row. Bear in mind that Hughes will likely not be pitching in the rotation much longer as Wang is making another rehab start in Triple A. A small lean on the Under.
Oakland vs. Tampa Bay
Oakland won 4-1 yesterday over TB. This team is last in the division currently at 14-21. TB had won 4 of 5 but fell short yesterday. Brett Anderson has struggled of late as he has put together back to back nonquality starts and has over a 6era this year. With TB only putting up 1 run yesterday, they will be looking to bounce-back today. Having said that, the Rays have yet to face Anderson so they seem him for the first time today. Kaz did help his team win 7-6 in his last game, but he has been struggling as he has given up at least 6 earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts. Kaz comes off his shortest outing of the year but he his 7-2 with a 2.48era lifetime against the As so he has that going for him today. I would lean on the Rays, but with over 75% on TB and the Rays not having faced Anderson ever, gives a small honeymoon edge to Anderson. no thanks, staying away from this game.
Cleveland vs. KC
Cleveland is 14-26 as they have lost their last 4 including a 5-6 loss yesterday. KC has won back to back games as they are 21-16 in the division just behind Detroit in the AL Central. Carmona picked up a win in his last start at TB despite the fact he had a nonquality start. The young man from Santo Domingo is 2-4 with a 5.7era so far. Meche got rocked in his last start against the Os as he looks to bounce-back and has actually lost his last 4 of 5. No lean either way as Meche is struggling a bit lately and Carmona is on an "era bounce-back" after a non-quality start. just staying away. Meche did face Cleveland this year and picked up a loss despite giving up just 3 earned runs in 7+ innings.
Minnesota vs. Chicago Whitesox
Minnesota has lost its last 5 ballgames including lost 2-6 yesterday to the Whitesox. After losing 5 straight, the Whitesox finally picked up a much needed win as they are jsut 16-22. One of the reasons they have cooled off is because John Danks has tailed off a bit. The young man from Texas who, gave up 7 runs in 3 innings in his last start as he is 0-3 over his last 4 starts which is a bit surprising considering he had pitched 5 straight quality starts prior to that dating back to last year. Liriano has never fared well at Cellular field where he is 0-2 with a 6.94era. Liriano is 2-0 over his last 4 starts as 3 of 4 have been quality of late. Tough to lean either way as Liriano is pitching better of late, but Cellular field has never been kind to him and Danks has been struggling of late looking to get back on track. The 8.5 doesn't seem to large here as a small lean on the over.
Angels vs. Mariners
The Angels have taken 2 in a row at Seattle winning 6-5 and 10-6. They are 20-18 and still on the heels of the Rangers who are 23-15. The fact that Santana has returned to the rotation and helped his team win 5-4 over the Redsox is a big deal. He had stuff over 90mph which is encouraging and now with Lackey and Santana back, the Angels rotation is back to being solid again. And, this team is 20-18 so they are still in prime position to make some major gains as two key elements are back in the rotation. Santana is 3-1 with a 5.52 era against era against the Mariners. Seattle has lost their last 2 after taking 2 of 3 from the Redsox. Jakubauskas faced the Angels earlier this year and despite a decent start, his team lost 1-5. The young man from Oklahoma did help his team win against the Redox as a +150 dog in his last outing.