Wednesday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Tim Hudson (5-1, 2.09), Atlanta Braves
It must be the early 2000s all over again because Tim Hudson is pitching like Cy Young.
The veteran right-hander has yielded a total of three hits in each of his last two outings – both wins. In his last five starts, Hudson is 4-0 while giving up only five earned runs and no more than two in a single game.
“My sinker feels really good, and for me that’s the key,” Hudson said. “Stay down in the zone with it, (get) good action, stay on top of it, (with) good downward tilt.”
“He’s got that extra, late movement and that makes it frustrating,” Pittsburgh’s Ryan Church said of the sinker. “He’s a ground-ball pitcher and it looks like he’s got his arm strength back from surgery.”
Hudson is 8-2 with a 2.92 ERA in 15 career starts versus Florida.
Chad Billingsley (5-2, 3.36), Los Angeles Dodgers
After a rough first month of the 2010 season, Chad Billingsley is starting to collect himself.
In his last three outings, the righty is 3-0 with a 1.56 ERA. Billingsley didn’t yield more than four hits in each of those three starts and he struck out 18 hitters.
Billingsley likes to work fast on the mound but some analysts attributed his early struggles to being too quick between pitches and hitters.
“He was great,” manager Joe Torre said after Billingsley shutout the Padres in a 1-0 victory last week. “He was so comfortable to watch for me. He had a good tempo all game. He didn’t try to rush himself.”
Slumping
Joe Blanton (1-2, 5.06), Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia’s third option in the rotation hasn’t found his form since returning from injury in early May.
Joe Blanton has historically been a second-half pitcher, dropping his ERA almost a full run in 2009 post-All-Star break, so maybe he’s still working out the kinks.
This season, Blanton has surrendered no less than three runs in each of his four starts and opposing offenses are averaging a hit per inning of the right-hander.
There aren’t too many times you’re going to find the Phillies around a pick ‘em against a pitcher making his second big league start (Takahashi, Mets) but Blanton’s struggles are likely the reason.
Kevin Correia (4-4, 4.57 ERA), San Diego Padres
Kevin Correia has made two starts since his 21-year-old brother fell to his death in a hiking accident. He lost both of those games and has dropped three straight outings overall.
Correia said that when he's been on the mound he's "just concentrating on the game" but you have to wonder if his mind drifts to more personal matters, which would be completely understandable.
The righty has been tagged for four earned runs in his last two starts and registered a 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio in those games while not getting past the sixth inning.
Correia called his brother’s death the toughest think he’s ever had to deal with and until more time passes San Diego’s No. 2 guy may continue to struggle.
Wednesday's Afternoon Action
By Judd Hall
I think it’s safe to say that we’re getting ready for the dog days of summer when it comes to betting. The NBA and NHL seasons are both about to go into hibernation. The World Cup will garner a lot of viewership, but not much in terms of action at the betting shops. That means baseball will be the only game in town for many of us at the window. Wednesday sets up a lot like that, with three games setting up during the afternoon. Let’s look at those tilts.
White Sox (18-23, -777) at Indians (14-27, -1,083) – 12:05 p.m. EDT
Cleveland hasn’t had too much to cheer about in a season that is starting to look more and more like “Major League” without the charm of Corbin Bernsen.
One thing that the Tribe has been able to take heart in is their ownership of Chicago this season, taking five of the seven head-to-head meetings. It’s just too bad they can’t figure out the rest of Major League Baseball as the Indians are 3-9 in their last 12 games this season. That includes a 1-5 mark in their past five tilts in Progressive Field.
Jake Westbrook (2-2, 4.56) hasn’t been much of an ace for the Indians this season, having dropped six of his nine starts in 2010. We should give Westbrook some credit though in that he has looked pretty good in his last three appearances, posting a 2-1 record and an earned run average of 2.70.
The White Sox did a novel thing the last time Mark Buehrle (3-5, 4.55) was on the mound…they won. Chicago’s 8-0 home win on May 21 over the Marlins was the first for both Buehrle and for the club with him on the mound since April 11. The Pale Hose lost the six games in between those triumphs.
Chicago has been installed as a $1.14 road favorite (risk $114 to win $100) with a total of 8 ½.
The ‘over’ has been hitting a great clip for the Indians right now with a 5-1 run. Chicago has seen the ‘over’ go 3-1-1 in its last five games.
Chicago has gone 4-6 in 10 road tests against teams in the American League Central. However, they have won three of its last four in this spot.
The Tribe are 5-6 against divisional foes on friendly turf, losing five of their last six. The ‘over’ is 8-3 in those decisions.
Cleveland is just 2-4 at home when taking on left-handed pitchers.
Rangers (25-20, +118) at Royals (17-27, -581) – 2:10 p.m. EDT
Most betting outlets have the Rangers as $1.10 road faves with a total of 9 ½.
The Rangers come into this contest looking to keep a decent cushion in their lead of the AL West. And there are not many teams that they’d want to face to complete that mission right now more than Kansas City. That’s because Texas pulled off a four-game sweep at home against the Royals earlier in the month.
Texas certainly needs something to right the ship at the moment since they’ve lost two straight games entering this series. But Ron Washington’s club has gone just 7-11 away from the Ballpark in Arlington this season, losing five straight. The ‘under’ has been the play for them on the road, evidenced by a 12-6 tally.
Rich Feldman (2-4, 5.90) would do well to gain some momentum in this start. He gave up four earned runs on 12 hits in a six-inning performance in a 13-7 home win on May 20. But the Rangers lost five of Feldman’s last six starts this season. The only problem is that Feldman has been garbage on the road in 2010, going 0-3 with an 8.64 ERA in three road starts.
Kansas City appears to be on its way to another slump as they’ve lost two straight games at home to the Rockies. And playing at home isn’t guaranteeing anything for the Royals since they’ve posted a 4-7 record in their last 11 matches at Kauffman Stadium. The ‘over’ has gone 12-9 for KC at home this season.
Luke Hochevar (4-2, 5.37) has been one of the brighter spots for the Royals this season on the mound. But he has lost four of his past six starts this season. Hochevar at home this year has left a little to be desired as the team is 1-2 in his three starts and he is 0-1 with a 3.92 ERA on his own ledger.
Tigers (25-19, +734) at Mariners (16-28, -1,393) – 3:40 p.m. EDT
Detroit is nipping on the Twins’ heels right now in the AL Central, sitting just one game behind in the standings. Jim Leyland can thank his lucky pack of Pall Malls (unfiltered, of course) and a 5-3 mark in the Tigers’ past eight games. Jeremy Bonderman (2-2, 4.43) has given about as much as you can want out of your No. 5 starter. He has had five straight good starts this, gaining a winning decision in just one of them. And Bonderman picked up a hold on May 16 after throwing an inning of no-hit ball against Boston in a 5-1.
The Mariners continue to prove that they are one of the most inept offenses in the big leagues. Seattle has scored just one run in its last two games and hasn’t crossed the plate more than four times in eight of its past 10 fixtures. It shouldn’t come as a shock that they are 2-6 in those eight matches.
Seattle will turn to southpaw Jason Vargas (3-2, 3.08) on Wednesday afternoon. The M’s have won two of Vargas’ past three starts this season. Even more importantly for the Mariners is that Vargas has gone 3-1 in his five starting nods at Safeco Field with a 2.41 ERA.
The M’s are $1.08 home favorites with a total of 7 ½ for this contest.
The Tigers have won three straight games on the road against left-handed pitching.
Seattle won two of its three tilts at home against AL Central foes with the ‘under’ going 2-1. Incidentally, those victories came against the Tigers back in Mid-April.
vegasinsider.com
Under the Lights
By Brian Edwards
Gamblers have a stacked, 15-game slate on the MLB card for Wednesday, including three afternoon games. Let’s break down a trio of contests that’ll be played under the lights.
**Yankees at Twins**
New York (26-18, +108) lost five of its previous six games going into Tuesday’s series opener against the Twins. The slide dropped the Yankees to 5 ½ games back of the American League East-leading Rays.
Minnesota (26-18, +297) went into Tuesday’s action clinging to a one-game lead over Detroit in the AL Central. The Twins were swept in a quick two-game series at Boston last week, only to respond by taking two of three against the Brewers at home over the weekend.
Joe Girardi will turn to veteran Andy Pettitte (5-1, 2.68) for the middle game of this three-game set. Pettitte is coming off his worst outing of the year in an 8-6 loss to the Rays. The veteran lefty gave up six earned runs in five innings, shooting his ERA up from 1.79 to 2.68. Nevertheless, the Yankees are still 7-1 in his eight starts this season.
Pettitte owns a 10-5 record and 3.53 ERA in 20 career starts against Minnesota. Twins slugger Joe Mauer is 4-for-13 (.308) against the left-hander with one homer, while Justin Mornea is 5-for-13 (.385) off Pettitte with a pair of doubles.
Francisco Liriano (4-3, 3.25) appeared to have regained the form he displayed in 2006 when he went 12-3 with a miniscule 2.16 ERA before elbow woes sidelined him for the entire 2007 campaign. However, Liriano has been shelled in his last three outings, going 0-3 with a 7.02 ERA.
Liriano is 0-2 with a 3.32 ERA in three career starts against the Yankees. Derek Jeter is 4-for-9 (.444) against the southpaw with one homer, while Alex Rodriguez has just a single in six at-bats versus Liriano for a .167 batting average.
The Yankees are 9-7 against lefties, while the Twins have torched southpaws for a 9-4 record.
Minnesota has posted a 14-7 record at home, while the Yankees are 13-12 on the road.
The ‘over’ has cashed in six of the Yankees’ last seven games. For the season, the ‘over’ is 25-21 overall for the Bronx Bombers, 14-13 in their road assignments.
The ‘under’ is on a 12-6 run for the Twins, who have seen the ‘under’ go 24-18 overall, 12-7 in their home contests.
**Braves at Marlins**
Atlanta (23-21, -140) saw its five-game winning streak snapped in Sunday’s 3-2 loss at Pittsburgh in 10 innings. Nevertheless, Bobby Cox’s club has climbed out of the cellar and into second place in the NL East, 3 ½ games back of the loop-leading Phillies going into Tuesday’s games.
Florida (23-22, -81) is in third place in the NL East, four games behind first-place Philadelphia. The Marlins snapped a three-game losing slide by trouncing the White Sox by a 13-0 count Sunday. Josh Johnson improved to 5-1 by throwing six scoreless innings, while Cody Ross blasted a pair of homers for the Fish.
Atlanta RHP Tommy Hanson (3-3, 4.18) will get the starting nod in this spot after the worst outing of his career. Hanson gave up eight earned runs to the Reds in just 1 2/3 innings of work. He told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution the he was “lightheaded and didn’t feel well” after the game. On the bright side, his teammates rallied by erupting for seven runs in the bottom of the ninth for an improbable comeback victory.
Hanson is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in a pair of career starts against Florida.
Florida LHP Nate Robertson (4-4, 4.56) is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA in four home starts this season. Robertson has just one career appearance against the Braves, pitching one scoreless inning out of the bullpen when he was with Detroit.
Fredi Gonzalez’s squad is 12-10 at home, while Cox’s team is 10-15 on the road.
The Braves have limped to a 5-8 record against left-handed pitching.
Going into Tuesday’s series opener in South Florida, the ‘under’ had cashed in four consecutive Atlanta games. For the season, the Braves have watched the ‘under’ go 25-18 overall, 15-9 in their road assignments.
Totals have been an overall wash for the Marlins (21-21), but the ‘over’ is 15-9 in their home games.
The first pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. Eastern on Fox Sports South and Fox-Florida.
**Rays at Red Sox**
Tampa Bay (32-13, +1274) is obviously playing fabulous baseball, as evidenced by its 5 ½-game lead in MLB’s toughest loop, the AL East. The Rays have especially thrived on the road, cashing tickets at an astounding 19-5 clip. With that said, they lost the series opener 6-1 to the Red Sox on Monday as minus-130 favorites.
Boston (25-21, -135) went into Tuesday’s game trailing the Rays by 7 ½ games in the AL East. The Red Sox were in fourth place, two games behind the Yankees and 1 ½ back of the Blue Jays. They won their third straight game, and sixth in their last seven, in Monday’s triumph behind homers from Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz.
Youkilis has hit a team-high 10 homers, while Big Papi now has nine for the season. Ortiz got off to another brutal start in April for the second straight year, but he’s coming around once again.
John Lackey (4-3, 5.07) is 9-3 with a 3.77 lifetime ERA against Tampa Bay. However, the right-hander got smacked around for nine hits and eight earned runs in an 8-2 loss to the Rays on April 19.
Boston is 4-5 in Lackey’s nine starts since coming to the franchise from the Angels during the offseason.
Matt Garza (5-2, 2.37) owns a 6-2 record and 2.92 ERA in 13 career starts against the Red Sox. The hard-throwing righty threw eight scoreless innings in a 7-1 win at Boston back on April 18.
The Rays are 6-3 in Garza’s nine starts this season, but they are 1-2 in his last three outings.
Ortiz is 3-for-22 (.136) against Garza with a double and a pair of homers. Mike Lowell is 3-for-20 (.150, 1 HR) off Garza, while J.D. Drew is 3-for-21 (.143) with a double and one dinger.
The ‘over’ is 22-21 overall for Boston, 14-11 in its home games at Fenway Park.
The ‘under’ is 24-19 overall for the Rays, 11-11 in their road outings.
vegasinsider.com
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (26-20) at San Diego (27-18)
Jaime Garcia (4-2, 1.28 ERA) looks to continue his incredible rookie season when he leads the Cardinals against the Padres and Kevin Correia (4-4, 4.57) in the middle game of a three-game series at Petco Park.
San Diego got a second-inning home run from Jerry Hairston Jr. on Monday and made it stand up, hanging on for a 1-0 victory. The Padres, who now lead the Dodgers by two games in the N.L. West, are still just 5-6 in their last 11 games overall, 2-6 in their last eight at Petco and they’ve dropped four straight against left-handed starters.. On a positive note, San Diego is on surges of 11-3 against the N.L. Central, 21-8 versus winning teams, 22-7 in the second game of a series and 10-4 on Wednesday.
The Cardinals, who remain tied with the Reds for first place in the N.L. Central, are now 8-12 in their last 20 games overall. Beyond that, Tony LaRussa’s troops have lost seven of 10 on the road and are in additional ruts 1-6 on the road against right-handed starters and 3-8 versus the N.L. West.
Monday’s result aside, the Cardinals have owned this rivalry over the past several years, going 60-22 in the last 82 meetings, including 11-2 in the last 13. St. Louis has also won four of the last six battles in San Diego, but the home team is still 12-5 in the last 17 series clashes.
Garcia has unquestionably been the best rookie pitcher in baseball this season, pitching at least six innings in seven of his eight starts while giving up two earned runs or fewer in every game (and a total of just seven earned runs in 49 1/3 innings). The left-hander is coming off his shortest stint of the season – a five-inning effort against the Marlins a week ago today – but he held Florida scoreless in a game St. Louis eventually lost 5-1
Garcia is 3-2 in five road starts despite a stellar 2.08 ERA, with St. Louis scoring a total of one run in his two defeats. Last year, Garcia made 10 late-season appearances with the Cardinals, including one start, which came against San Diego. In that contest, the 23-year-old gave up three runs on five hits in five innings, getting a no-decision as the Cardinals prevailed 9-5 at home.
Correia has followed up a four-game winning streak with a three-game losing skid, giving up 11 runs (all earned) in 17 1/3 innings (5.71 ERA). His last two losses came against the Dodgers (one home, one road) by identical 4-1 scores. The Padres have scored just four runs in the right-hander’s last three trips to the mound after tallying 38 runs during his four-game winning streak.
With Correia starting, the Padres are on positive runs 4-1 against the N.L. Central, 4-1 on Wednesday and 8-3 in the second game of a series. He’s 2-2 with a 3.57 ERA in four home games this year and 1-2 with a 4.28 ERA in nine games (three starts) against St. Louis. Last year, he suffered a 7-0 home loss to the Redbirds, yielding five runs on 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings.
St. Louis is on a slew of “under” runs, including 11-3 on the road, 7-2 against the N.L. West, 36-15-1 against winning teams and 21-8-2 on Wednesday. Also, the under has cashed in all eight of Garcia’s starts this season, including all five on the road. Similarly, the Padres are on “under” streaks of 12-4-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 6-1 versus the N.L. Central, 5-2 against southpaw starters and 23-8-1 against winning teams.
These teams have topped the total in seven of their last 11 meetings overall, but the under is 9-3-1 in the last 13 at Petco.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (26-18) at Minnesota (26-18)
For the second time in less than two weeks, the Yankees’ Andy Pettitte (5-1, 2.68) matches up against the Twins’ Francisco Liriano (4-3, 3.25) as these teams continue their three-game series at Target Field.
Tuesday’s series-opener was suspended because of poor weather and is slated to pick up today in the top of the sixth inning with the score tied 0-0.
The Yankees have followed up a six-game winning streak by losing 10 of their last 15 games, including six of eight on the road, to fall five games back of Tampa Bay in the A.L. East standings. Still, the defending champs are on several positive runs, including 102-49 overall, 39-15 against the A.L. Central, 41-14 on Wednesday, 47-23 versus left-handed starters and 45-21 when coming off a defeat.
The Twins are just 5-7 in their last 12 games – including losing two of three to the Yankees in the Bronx – but they’ve taken a liking to their new stadium by going 14-7 through 21 games at Target Field (5-2 last seven). Going back to their days in the Metrodome, the Twins have won 24 of 33 home games, and they’re also on runs of 42-15 at home against lefty starters and 12-5 after a loss. On the flip side, they’ve lost 47 of 69 to A.L. East opponents.
Not only did the Twins lose two of three in New York earlier this month, but they’re 17-52 in the last 69 meetings (playoffs included). Last year, the Yankees went 4-0 in Minnesota, including a 4-1 victory to finish off a sweep of the best-of-5 divisional playoff series.
Pettitte is coming off his first loss of the season, as he got rocked by the Rays for a season-high seven runs (six earned) in five innings on Thursday, surrendering nine hits (three home runs) in an 8-6 home loss. Pettitte had given up two earned runs or fewer and lasted at least six innings in six of his first seven starts, and he served up more long balls to Tampa Bay than he had in his previous eight starts combined (two).
Prior to Thursday, the Yankees had won 10 straight games with Pettitte on the mound. Still, behind the 37-year-old southpaw, New York remains on surges of 20-7 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 37-18 against the A.L. Central and 25-7 on Wednesday. In two road starts this year (both Yankees wins), Pettitte is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA, yielding one run in each contest while working a total of 14 innings.
New York is also 7-1 in Pettitte’s last eight starts against the Twins (playoffs included) and 5-2 in his last seven outings in Minnesota. For his career, he’s 12-5 with a 3.34 ERA in 22 starts (two postseason) against the Twins. That includes a 7-1 home win on May 15, when Pettitte scattered just two hits and three walks in 6 1/3 scoreless innings.
Liriano got off to a tremendous start to the season, going 4-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his first five starts (all Minnesota wins), but he’s stumbled big time in his last three trips to the mound (0-3, 7.02 ERA). Most recently, the lefty got pummeled at Fenway Park on Thursday, allowing five runs on five hits and three walks in a season-low 4 2/3 innings, losing 6-2 to the Red Sox. On the bright side, Liriano has flourished at Target Field, going 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA in three starts.
Minnesota is 1-6 in Liriano’s last seven versus winning teams, 3-8 the last 11 times he’s started the second game of a series and 1-7 in Liriano’s last eight starts against the A.L. East. That includes the 7-1 loss at Yankee Stadium 11 days ago, when Liriano gave up three runs on nine hits in six innings to fall to 0-2 with a 3.32 ERA in three career starts against New York.
New York sports “over” trends of 6-1 overall and 10-4 on the road versus southpaw starters, but otherwise the Yanks are on “under” streaks of 5-2 on the road, 11-4 on Wednesday, 6-1 against the A.L. Central, 36-15-2 when Pettitte pitches on the road, 19-7 when he faces the A.L. Central and 9-4 when he works on Wednesday.
Minnesota is on “under” tears of 8-3 at home, 23-7-3 against the A.L. East, 6-0 at home versus southpaw starters, 14-4-4 on Wednesday, 24-7-2 following a loss and 6-2-1 with Liriano on the hill.
Lastly, the under has cashed in five of the last six Twins-Yankees battles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
MLB RoundUp For 5/26
By Dan Bebe
National League
Braves (-140) @ Marlins with a total of 8.5
Troy Glaus is 4-for-13 with 2 HR off Robertson since '05;
Cameron Maybin is 2-for-2 off Hanson.
Big Tommy is coming off his worst start of the year, arguably since turning Pro, as he allowed 8 runs in just 1.2 innings to the Reds in a game the Braves came back and won in dramatic fashion with more than a handful in the 9th. Robertson has been about as consistently marginal as you can, allowing, generally, between 3-5 runs every time out, and generally going 5 or 6 innings. If you're betting trends, Hanson is definitely trending down, and this line is pretty short for Hanson, but I'm not sure I can get behind either side. Pass.
Phillies (-115) @ Mets with a total of 8.5
Luis Castillo is 9-for-16 off Blanton since '05;
Jeff Francoeur is 4-for-9 off Blanton, with 4 RBI.
The best part about Joe Blanton is that he is getting a tiny bit better every time out, and it's tough to argue otherwise. His stamina is starting to work its way to 100%, and if not for serving up 5 homers in just 4 starts, his numbers would look much better. Problem is, when Blanton tires, he starts to get the ball up in the zone, and guys hit it out. Citi Field might very well remedy that, with spacious dimensions and tall outfield walls. The Mets don't hit for a ton of power, either, though they do seem to score well at home. Blanton's 2-0 record against the Mets is a nice starting point, and the one key factor keeping this from being a top level lean is that Takahashi is a bit of an unknown. He pitched well against the Yanks, but is really more of a long reliever, and it's tough to say how long before teams figure him out.
Pirates @ Reds (-175) with a total of 9
Being that Ohlendorf has faced Cincy recently, and Arroyo is already facing Pittsburgh for the third time this year, we won't get too caught up in player numbers. Feel free to dig up the last blog for some of those. More important is that Arroyo pitched 7 innings of 1-run ball in one start against Pittsburgh, and allowed 5 runs in 6 innings in the other. A pitcher with almost no rhyme or reason is a pitcher that I don't want to back, and a pitcher that makes it very tough to truly handicap his performance. Ohlendorf is coming off a bad start, too, and we all know how streaky the Pirates can be. Pass.
Dodgers @ Cubs (-119) with a total of N/A
Ryan Theriot is 4-for-8 off Billingsley, with 1 RBI.
Not a ton to work with on either side, though Billingsley has done a nice job of shutting down the key names in the Cubs lineup. Aramis Ramirez is just 2-for-10, and Derrek Lee is 1-for-12 off Chad, so his career 1-3 record against the Cubs belies his decent work against them. Gorzelanny is 1-0 against the Dodgers, but posted a 5.30 ERA, and while he's pitched well this year, it seems like the roof could come in at any moment. I'm very tempted to back the Dodgers, a team that has been red hot, but they just haven't hit lefties all that well this year, and that makes me hesitate. I certainly wouldn't take the Cubs, not with as inconsistent as they've been. Likely a pass, but going to dig a bit deeper before making any final calls.
Astros @ Brewers (-119) with a total of 8.5
Lance Berkman is 2-for-5 with a HR and 2 RBI off Narveson;
Ryan Braun is 7-for-14 with 3 HR and 6 RBI off Oswalt;
Corey Hart is 8-for-16 with a HR and 3 RBI off Oswalt since '05.
Other than Braun and Hart, Oswalt has really silenced the Brewers. Prince Fielder is batting just .147 against him, and Rickie Weeks just .105. Oswalt's career 13-8, 3.75 mark against Milwaukee is intriguing, to say the least. That being said, the man just requested a trade away from Houston, so you just have to wonder how that's going to impact the already microscopic run support his team has given him, and how it's going to effect his performance on the mound. Chris Narveson is nothing special, but it's dangerous to back a team with turmoil, and that's just what you're getting with Oswalt.
D'backs @ Rockies (-260) with a total of 9
Again, I'm not concerned with player numbers, here, as Jimenez is absolutely on a completely different level than any other pitcher in baseball. He's throwing 98 mph with little effort, and when he throws strikes, he's virtually unhittable. He already pitched 6 shutout innings against the D'backs this year, and that was, compared to his other work, a bad start. Lopez as a monster dog is not at all intriguing. Why? Well, Jimenez has the fastball to win at Coors Field, and most guys just don't. Pass.
Cardinals (-125) @ Padres with a total of 6.5
Matt Holliday is 7-for-23 with a HR and 6 RBI off Correia;
Albert Pujols is 3-for-9 off Correia;
Skip Schumaker is 3-for-7 with 1 RBI off Correia.
I really wanted to try to find a way to back the Padres in this one, but I'm not sure the situation is quite right. Better to play it safe, as Garcia still hasn't shown signs of regressing to the mean, and I think it's in our best interest to wait until we see a chink in his armor, and then fade away. He's not going all that deep in games, which still means this is a very winnable game for San Diego and the Padres' amazing bullpen, but with Correia struggling since his brother's death, I want no part of the turmoil. Yep, again, I suggest avoiding the situation where we'd have to handicap emotion.
Nationals @ Giants (-260) with a total of 7.5
The Giants have never seen Atilano, and the Nats might as well have never seen Lincecum, since, like most teams, they've struggled to score runs against The Freak. Timmy is 1-0 with a 1.77 ERA against Washington. Volume bettors might like the Washington side, but we're not in that business, and this line is too expensive to back the favorite, but the Nats just simply aren't good enough to warrant taking a shot against Tim at home. Passeroo.
American League
White Sox (-120) @ Indians with a total of 8.5
Let's work off the meetings this year, once again. Both of these pitchers has faced the other team twice already this season, and both pitched well once and poorly the other time. So, what do we expect in round three? Well, Jake Westbrook isn't very good, so I would imagine he probably won't pitch that well. It's a lame form of handicapping, but Westbrook is who he is, and that's a 5-ERA, fill-in starter that's seeing more innings because he's on a terrible team. He's 8-12 lifetime against the White Sox, though the current ones don't hit him as hard as previous groups. Buerhle is almost as bad against the Indians, though the reason I like Mark in this match-up is because he's coming off a very strong start against the Marlins, and we all know how Buerhle can rattle off 24 scoreless innings in a row when he gets hot. Slight lean to Chitown's South Siders.
Rangers (-112) @ Royals with a total of 10
Michael Young was 3-for-3 with a HR off Hochevar before 2010;
David DeJesus is 5-for-7 with a HR and 3 RBI off Feldman before 2010.
Rematch time! You guys know how I feel about those. These starters faced off near the beginning of May, and both stunk, but Texas stunk a little less over the course of the game and prevailed. Scott Feldman somehow still has a 3.27 ERA against the Royals, but most of that success came last year. He still hasn't quite found that form, and seems to allow at least 4 runs every time out. The Royals got beat twice over the weekend by the Rockies, but in general, they're competing better, and not suffering the same type of full-time collapses that got them off to such a bad start. Hochevar, too, has made big strides this season, but remains a work in progress. Based on what I like about rematches, I have a lean to Hochevar at the eerily not-generous price.
Tigers @ Mariners (-110) with a total of 7.5
Chone Figgins is 5-for-11 off Bonderman;
Ichiro is 8-for-22 off Bonderman.
I'm a little taken aback by this price, so I'm going to dig further. At first glance, this seems like a heck of a deal on Vargas, one of the fine young starters on this Mariners staff. Bonderman has been pretty strong in the month of May, so I'm inclined to pass just based on his upward trend, and on the fact that the Tigers are so far ahead of the Mariners, offensively. Even without Miguel Cabrera, the Tigers have plenty of guys that can hit. The Mariners are good for about 2 runs a night most evenings (or days), then explode for 10 every once in a while. Pass.
Athletics @ Orioles (-116) with a total of 8.5
Nick Markakis is 4-for-6 off Cahill.
This line is probably pretty fair. Cahill pitched extremely well against the Giants, but those were the Giants. He went 1-1 against the O's with a 3.46 ERA in the past, so we know he can pitch well against them, it's just a matter of will he? Matusz is coming off an horrific start against the Rangers, so now we see if he's in bounce-back form or trending down. If there was a little more value, I might be inclined to back the A's, but I don't really trust this team to beat a club that can put more than a handful of runners on base, and even though Baltimore is pretty weak, offensively, they're better than San Fran.
Blue Jays @ Angels (-141) with a total of 9
Fred Lewis is 3-for-8 off Pineiro;
Lyle Overbay is 4-for-5 with a HR off Pineiro;
Kendry Morales is 3-for-6 with a HR and 3 RBI off Morrow;
Torii Hunter is 3-for-4 off Morrow.
Too expensive to play the Angels here, I reckon. Pineiro is coming off one of those complete implosion outings, and it seems like most pitchers have at least 2 bad starts when they have one. Of course, Morrow is as bad as they come, this year. He's a walk machine, his ERA is still up around 7, and he's 0-2 lifetime against the Angels. I'm actually a little surprised he's still taking his turn every 5 days. I'd like to say the Over has some legs, but I have a feeling I'm not going to be the only one who thinks so, so this one is likely a pass, as well. Tougher card, today, moving through the games, here!
Red Sox @ Rays (-160) with a total of 8.5
Adrian Beltre was 3-for-10 off Garza before 2010;
Jacoby Ellsbury was 10-for-32 off Garza before 2010;
Victor Martinez was 6-for-20 off Garza before 2010;
Hank Blalock has hit .354 with 2 HR and 7 RBI off Lackey since '05;
Carlos Pena was 5-for-15 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Lackey since '05.
There are a few more guys on Tampa with averages near .300 off Lackey, but more importantly, let's look at the start earlier this year, and career numbers. Lackey has been facing Tampa since they stunk, so his numbers against them are skewed towards the 5-6 years he faced the Rays when they couldn't win a game to save their lives. This year, Lackey gave up 8 runs to Tampa in a truly miserable start. Garza, only in the League for a couple years, is 6-2 with a 2.92 ERA against the Red Sox, including 8 shutout frames earlier this year. There's a reason oddsmakers are offering +140 on the Red Sox, and it's because they're going to lose. I lean Tampa, even at this higher price.
Yankees @ Twins (-110) with a total of 9
Marcus Thames is 4-for-9 with 3 HR off Liriano before 2010;
Michael Cuddyer was 4-for-9 off Pettitte with a HR since '05;
Brendan Harris is 8-for-17 off Pettitte;
Joe Mauer was 4-for-10 with a HR off Pettitte;
Justin Morneau is 4-for-10 off Pettitte before 2010.
Rematch, round two on today's card (barring, of course, I missed one). Pettitte won round one, throwing 6 shutout frames in a game the Yanks won 7-1. Liriano continues to struggle after his brilliant start to the year, now seemingly unable to stop bleeding, giving up 16 runs in May after just allowing 3 throughout the entirety of April. I love to back the loser in a rematch, but Pettitte has just been able to consistently find a way to destroy the Twins, so it's Yanks or nothing for me on this one.
Diamond Trends - Wednesday
By Vince Akins
Blue Jays at Angels – The Blue Jays are 0-10 since April 30, 2009 as a dog after a 5+ run loss and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The Blue Jays are 5-0 since May 02, 2010 after a loss and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $500.
Astros at Brewers – The Astros are 0-10 since July 04, 2009 as a dog after a loss in which they were shut out in the first 6 innings and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The Astros are 0-7 since April 09, 2010 after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits for a net profit of $705 when playing against.
Dodgers at Cubs – The Dodgers are 0-6 since July 28, 2009 on the road when they are off two losses in which they never led and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $620 when playing against. The Cubs are 0-4 since May 04, 2010 vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $570 when playing against.
Nationals at Giants – The Nationals are 0-9 since April 24, 2009 as a 170+ dog when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Nationals are 4-0 since October 01, 2009 as a road dog when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $720. The Giants are 9-0 since May 26, 2009 when Tim Lincecum starts at home after more strike outs than hits allowed on the road for a net profit of $900.
White Sox at Indians – The White Sox are 10-0 since April 23, 2010 after allowing 6+ runs loss for a net profit of $1115. The White Sox are 5-0 since April 29, 2010 on the road after allowing 6+ runs loss for a net profit of $615. The Indians are 0-5 since April 20, 2010 as a dog when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $500 when playing against.
Tigers at Mariners – The Mariners are 11-0 since June 03, 2009 as a favorite after a win and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $1100. The Mariners are 0-6 since April 18, 2009 at home after a win in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base for a net profit of $630 when playing against.
Braves at Marlins – The Braves are 5-0 since July 20, 2009 when Tommy Hanson starts as a 140+ favorite after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $500.
Phillies at Mets – The Phillies are 0-6 since May 07, 2009 on the road after being shutout for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Phillies are 6-0 since November 02, 2009 vs a team that has won at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $650. The Phillies are 6-0 since June 01, 2009 when Joe Blanton starts as a favorite after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $600.
Athletics at Orioles – The Athletics are 6-0 since June 11, 2009 when Trevor Cahill starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $685. The Orioles are 0-6 since April 24, 2010 when Brian Matusz starts for a net profit of $625 when playing against.
Cardinals at Padres – The Padres are 0-5 since April 26, 2010 as a dog when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $500 when playing against.
Red Sox at Rays – The Red Sox are 7-0 since August 02, 2009 on the road vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $740. The Rays are 13-0 since May 03, 2009 as a home favorite when they lost by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $1300. The Rays are 0-5 since April 14, 2009 when Matt Garza starts as a favorite after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits on the road for a net profit of $690 when playing against.
Pirates at Reds – The Pirates are 0-5 since August 05, 2009 when Ross Ohlendorf starts after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $520 when playing against. The Reds are 5-0 since April 11, 2010 at home after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $520.
Diamondbacks at Rockies – The Diamondbacks are 5-0 since October 02, 2009 as a 140+ dog when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $790. The Rockies are 5-0 since August 12, 2009 when Ubaldo Jimenez starts as a 140+ favorite after the team won his last two starts for a net profit of $500.
Rangers at Royals – The Rangers are 6-0 since May 23, 2009 when Scott Feldman starts as a road favorite after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $600. The Rangers are 0-5 since September 29, 2009 when Scott Feldman starts after he had a WHIP of at least 2 his last start for a net profit of $590 when playing against. The Royals are 0-7 since July 19, 2009 when Luke Hochevar starts at home after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $700 when playing against.
Tips and Trends
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins
Yankees: New York is struggling for perhaps the very first time this entire season. The Yankees have lost 5 of their past 6 games, so it's going to be quite interesting to see how they handle the adversity. Their last series win was against their opponent today, the Minnesota Twins. New York struggled offensively against the Mets, as they scored 4 runs or fewer in all 3 contests. Through it all, the Yankees are still 26-18 on the season. New York would be the Wild Card representative in the American League if the playoffs started today. New York will send lefty Andy Pettitte to the mound today to oppose the Twins. Pettitte is 5-1 this year, with an ERA of 2.68 and a WHIP of 1.25. The Yankees are 2-5 in their last 7 road games against a left-handed starter. New York is 4-1 in Pettittes' last 5 road starts. The Yankees are 37-18 in Pettittes' last 55 starts against the American League Central.
Yankees are 2-5 last 7 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%.
Under is 4-0 last 4 road games against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - CF Curtis Granderson (groin) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5
Twins (-113, O/U 9): After losing 3 straight games, Minnesota bounced back with a series win over the Brewers. The Twins are 26-18 overall this year, tied for the 2nd best record in the American League. Minnesota enjoys a nice home-field advantage, considering they are 14-7 at home this season. Minnesota is up 2.97 Units overall this year. Lefty Francisco Liriano will be the starting pitcher for Minnesota tonight. Liriano is 4-3 this year, with an ERA of 3.25 and a WHIP of 1.27. Minnesota has already faced the Yankees this season, losing 2 of the 3 games played in New York. The Twins are 42-15 in their last 57 home games against a left-handed starter. The Twins are 6-1 in Lirianos' last 7 starts with 5 days of rest. Minnesota is 1-5 in Lirianos' last 6 home starts against a team with a winning record. The Twins are 1-7 in Lirianos' last 8 starts against the American League East.
Twins are 24-9 last 33 home games.
Under is 8-3 last 11 home games.
Key Injuries - 2B Nick Punto (finger) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 7(OVER - Total of the Day)