Wednesday's MLB Preview
By Josh Jacobs
If you’re the Padres, Yankees or the Tigers then things are looking good as we flip the script to mid-week matchups. But if you’re dropping games like the Cubs or struggling to find the formula that made a club like the Blue Jays successful then maybe its time to change strategy.
Either way you look at it there are teams out there that can appeal to backers or those gamblers looking for the sharpest fade play. Wednesday will bring with it several games that could help fatten our wallets.
Toronto at Baltimore – 1:35 p.m. ET
The Blue Jays are experiencing what can best be described as road woes. Getting swept in three-game series between both Boston and Atlanta, Toronto is hoping that it can stop the bleeding before it finds itself digging a deeper ditch.
The good news for those looking to squeeze out some bucks, look no further then dominant right-hander, Roy Halladay (8-1, 2.52 ERA). The career, 3.48 ERA slinger hasn’t lost a game against Baltimore since May 4, 2005. But more importantly Halladay is 28-12 since Opening Day of last year, hasn’t allowed more then one earned run in his last four starts and has pitched seven innings or more in every start this season.
While Halladay has been spot on, let’s not overlook Toronto’s offensive output. During the ace’s trips to the mound bats inside the box have been outstanding, producing a team high, 6.8 runs per start.
Despite the Jays dropping seven straight, looking for value in this match could be a difficult proposition (in-fact a price of -160 has been manufactured by most books in this contest). In his last three road outings, Halladay has seen prices of -147, -152 and -168 in ascending order.
Toronto is 19-3 in Halladay’s last 22 starts versus Baltimore.
In terms of totals, Camden Yards has played a role in low scoring games. It’s Park Factor on the year is sitting at .910 (as a refresher, above 100 is a hitters park and below 100 favors pitchers). In support, the Orioles are now 10-5 on the ‘under’ in their last 15 home stands.
Baltimore is attempting to recover from a damaging road stint for which the club churned out a 4-6 record in its last 10 away from home. Lefty starter Rich Hill (1-0, 3.18) is coming off a no-decision in Washington last Friday, allowing three hits and two earned runs in 5.2 innings. Right-handers are teeing off on Hill for a .290 BA, but his command of the strike zone has been steadily improving. This will be Hill’s first career start versus the Blue Jays.
A total of 8 1/2-runs has been installed.
Tampa Bay at Cleveland – 7:05 p.m. ET
It’s been almost two full days since the Rays squandered a 10-4 lead heading into the ninth inning against the Tribe. There’s no question that this loss should weigh heavily on the club in the near future. But should we be surprised over Monday’s scenario?
Tampa Bay’s bullpen is a shadow of what it was in 2008. Through 47 games, the pen is 5-7 with a 4.41 ERA. This hurts backers’ wallets as the Rays last three losses have been determined by exactly one run. The last seven defeats have been decided by no more then three runs in any one contest.
Having faced off five times already this season, Tampa Bay leads the head-to-head action, 3-2. The Rays have been installed as favorites in every game this season. A contest played on May 16 witnessed the highest price tag in this exchange. Tampa closed the boards as $1.75 favorites, eventually taking that contest 4-2 thanks to Matt Garza giving up just five hits.
A streak that just can’t be ignored is the Rays going ‘over’ the total in six straight and 12 times in the last 14. What we have is a team scoring 7.4 and giving up 5.6 runs per game during this stretch.
Combine the above with the fact that Cleveland is 7-3 on the ‘over’ in the last 10 and expectations for books to adjust the opening total are expected. In the last five head-to-head meetings, the ‘over’ is 4-1 (and 8-4 in the last 12).
One factor that can’t be ignored is Tampa losing second baseman Akinori Iwamura for the season. His .310 BA and 16 RBIs will be missed. Iwamura was injured during a 5-4 loss to the Marlins on Sunday. Can Willy Aybar, Ben Zobrist and/or Reid Brignac come close to producing offensive numbers that Iwamura departed with? That answer seems like an unlikely ‘no’ at this point and time.
The pitching matchup in this contest will have Tampa Bay sending out Andy Sonnanstine (3-4, 6.60) onto the hill. Next in line for the Indians will be left-hander, David Huff (0-1, 17.55). Huff has been torched in only two starts this season, allowing 13 runs off 14 hits in a total of 6.2 innings.
The Rays are 7-19 in their last 26 meetings in Cleveland.
San Diego at Arizona – 9:40 p.m. ET
Based on Tuesday night’s results, the Padres will either be attempting to stretch their winning streak to 12 games or, at the very least, challenging themselves to continue building on positive momentum.
Jake Peavy (4-5, 3.48) is slated to toe the slab for San Diego after last week’s news of a possible trade to the White Sox fell through the floor. Peavy says he's very much comfortable tossing in the Bay area. The ace of the staff is now 2-1 in his last three starts, covering his team by allowing an average of 2.3 runs pre game. His 4-5 overall record isn’t much of a surprise, especially based on the fact that an offense batting a league worst, .234 has supplied their No. 1 starter with 2.9 runs of support per start.
Surprisingly, Peavy hasn’t had much success against the Diamondbacks. In his 27 career starts versus Arizona, Peavy is 11-12, garnering a 4.71 ERA. San Diego has opened holes in the pockets of backers by going 4-9 in the ace’s last 13 starts when pitted against the D-Backs.
Despite a 4-2 performance in its last six, Arizona finds itself seven games below the .500 mark. A 9-16 home record has been disastrous (this coming from a team that was 50-31 at home at the end of the ’07 season). Batting one point (.235) higher then San Diego isn’t something to celebrate. And a bullpen tossing softballs for a 5.07 ERA is embarrassing.
In just three of the last 10 games has the Diamondbacks passed through the window as betting favorites. If being installed as a $1.60 underdog against Florida on May 19 isn’t enough evidence to deem this club “in trouble” then losing as $1.46 favorites in Oakland should take the cake.
Arizona is expected to pencil in Billy Buckner (1-0, 6.35) into the rotation on Wednesday.
The Padres are 5-1 in their last six games versus the D-Backs dating back to August of last year.
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AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (26-19) at Texas (26-18)
Derek Holland (1-1, 4.82 ERA) makes his second career major-league start when the southpaw leads Texas against A.J. Burnett (2-2, 5.28) and the Yankees in the rubber match of a three-game series from Rangers Ballpark.
After waiting out a 2½-hour rain delay Tuesday night, the Rangers took the field and pounded New York 7-3 after getting clobbered in Monday’s series opener, 11-1. Despite last night’s result, the Yankees are still 22-8 in their last 30 games against the Rangers and 22-9 in their last 31 games in Texas.
New York is still on upticks of 11-3 overall, 10-3 as a favorite, 7-3 on the highway, 5-1 against lefty starters, 5-2 versus the A.L. West, 44-19 in the third game of a series and 55-21 on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Texas, which had an eight-game home winning streak snapped with Monday’s loss, remains on positive streaks of 17-6 overall, 9-1 at home, 12-4 against right-handed starters, 6-1 as a home ‘dog and 5-2 on Wednesday. However, the Rangers have dropped 17 of their last 26 against A.L. East foes.
Holland got a no-decision in his first career start Friday at Houston, giving up three runs on five hits in 5 2/3 innings, with the Rangers eventually pulling out a 6-5 victory. The left-hander’s two decisions have come in relief at home, where he’s 1-1 with a 10.13 ERA, surrendering six runs in 5 2/3 innings.
Burnett is coming off Friday’s 7-3 home loss to the Phillies as he surrendered five runs on eight hits (including three home runs) in six innings. Burnett hasn’t posted a victory since April 14 at Tampa Bay, and the Yankees have lost four of his last six contests, including a pair of road setbacks. For the season, Burnett is 2-1 with a 5.88 ERA in four starts on the highway.
Burnett has made six lifetime appearances against Texas (five starts), going 1-2 with a 4.72 ERA).
The over is 5-1 in the Yankees’ last six against teams from the A.L. West, and the over is 4-1 in their last five Wednesday contests. On the flip side, Burnett’s last four starts have stayed under the total, and the Rangers are riding “under” streaks of 22-9 overall (8-2 last 10), 9-4 at home, 8-0 as an underdog, 9-2 against right-handed starters and 6-0 in the third game of a series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Boston (27-19) at Minnesota (23-24)
The Red Sox trot out Daisuke Matsuzaka (0-2, 10.32) as they wrap up a three-game series at the Metrodome against the Twins and Kevin Slowey (6-1, 4.23).
Minnesota used a five-run fifth inning to top Boston 5-2 on Tuesday and end a six-game losing skid to the Red Sox. The Twins are now 12-5 in their last 17 meetings with Boston in the Metrodome, and the host is on an 11-3 roll in this rivalry.
The BoSox had a modest two-game win streak snapped last night and they’ve now split their last 12 games. On the bright side, they’re on runs of 5-2 on Wednesday and 46-19 against the A.L. Central, but Terry Francona’s squad has still dropped 26 of its last 37 games on artificial turf. Minnesota is still on runs of 5-1 overall, 52-22 at home, 9-1 as a favorite and 36-16 against winning teams. However, the Twins have lost five of their last seven on Wednesday and 35 of their last 52 against A.L. East opponents.
After a five-week stint on the disabled list because of arm fatigue, Matsuzaka returned to a big-league mound Friday and lasted just five innings, giving up four runs on five hits and two walks in a 5-3 home loss to the Mets. The right-hander has surrendered 13 runs in 11 1/3 innings of work this year, with Boston losing all three of his starts. That includes a 6-5 setback at Oakland in Matsuzaka’s only road outing of 2009.
Despite Friday’s loss to the Mets, with Dice-K on the hill, Boston is still on runs of 28-9 overall, 14-3 on the highway, 10-1 versus the A.L. Central, 4-0 on artificial turf and 3-0 against Minnesota. In fact, Matsuzaka has been brilliant in three career starts versus the Twins, going 2-0 with a 1.61 ERA (four earned runs allowed in 22 1/3 innings).
Slowey has delivered three consecutive quality starts, going 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA, including Friday’s 11-3 home rout of the Brewers in which the right-hander yielded all three runs (two earned) in 7 1/3 innings. Slowey has permitted two earned runs or fewer in five of his last seven trips to the mound, and he’s 5-0 with a 4.91 ERA in six home efforts in 2009.
The Twins have come out on top in 13 of Slowey’s last 16 home starts, and they’re 5-2 in his last seven outings overall and 5-1 in his last six Wednesday contests. However, in his lone career start against the Red Sox back in September 2007, Slowey got tagged for four runs in 5 2/3 innings, losing 5-2 at Fenway Park.
Last night’s game stayed under the total, ending a 5-0 “over” run in this rivalry, but the over is still 4-2 in the last six clashes in Minnesota. Additionally, the Twins are on “over” streaks of 10-5 at home, 21-7 on Wednesday and 6-1 when Slowey pitches at home. Boston’s “over” trends include 17-4 on Wednesday and 5-1 against the Central Division. However, the under is 8-3-1 in Boston’s last 12 overall and 5-1-1 in Matsuzaka’s last seven starts against A.L. Central clubs.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
GAMETIMEPICKS.COM
Wednesday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
By Covers.com
Streaking
Roy Halladay (Toronto Blue Jays)
Roy Halladay has had plenty of success against the Baltimore Orioles during his career, but there's an added sense of urgency when he next faces them.
Halladay will try to help the Toronto Blue Jays salvage one victory during this nine-game road trip as he looks to win his 10th consecutive decision and 20th overall against the Orioles in the finale of a three-game set on Wednesday.
The eight-game slide has dropped the Blue Jays (27-22) from first to third in the AL East. They have a good chance of getting back in the win column with Halladay (8-1, 2.52 ERA).
The 2003 AL Cy Young Award winner improved to 19-4 with a 2.88 ERA against the Orioles (20-26) on May 1 after allowing four runs - three earned - and 10 hits over eight innings of an 8-4 victory.
"I think everybody would like to have about 10 Docs around," Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston said after that start. "But that's impossible. We do have one, so we've got to enjoy him."
Overall, Halladay, who is tied with Kansas City's Zack Greinke for the major league lead in victories, has won his last five decisions. The Toronto right-hander failed to earn one, though, against Atlanta on Friday despite pitching seven scoreless innings.
He gave up five hits and struck out six, but the Jays fell 1-0.
Halladay has benefited from a lot of run support when he's pitched against the Orioles, but he might not have that advantage in this game. Toronto, which averaged 7.5 runs in his last 11 starts against Baltimore, has been held to 13 during this road trip after a 7-2 loss Tuesday.
Rick Porcello (Detroit Tigers)
It only took a handful of games for Detroit Tigers rookie Rick Porcello to become comfortable pitching in the majors.
Porcello looks to win his fifth straight start Wednesday in the finale of a three-game series with the Kansas City Royals.
After spending 2008 at Class-A Lakeland in the Florida State league, Porcello (5-3 3.55 ERA) overcame a rough start to his first season in the majors - 1-3 with a 6.23 ERA in April - to dominate during this month. He's won his last four starts while posting a 1.13 ERA, allowing three runs over 24 innings.
Porcello gave up one run and six hits over six innings of a 4-3 victory over Colorado on Friday to match Dave Rozema's 1977 team record for consecutive wins by a pitcher 20 years and under. Porcello doesn't turn 21 until December.
"I still think there's a lot of things I can improve on," he said.
A win Wednesday would make Porcello the first major leaguer 20 years old or younger to win five consecutive starts since Dwight Gooden in 1985 with the Mets.
Porcello, though, struggled against Kansas City in his third big-league start on April 24, surrendering five runs over six innings of a 6-1 loss. He gave up two home runs in that start as he was beaten by Zach Greinke.
Porcello at least won't have to worry about outdoing Greinke, who notched his eighth victory and fifth complete game in the Royals' 6-1 win over Detroit on Tuesday.
Slumping
A.J. Burnett (New York Yankees)
The Yankees, who are one game behind East-leading Boston, look to rebound from their third loss in five games and hope A.J. Burnett (2-2, 5.28) can win for the first time since April 14.
The right-hander joined New York in December after signing an $82.5 million, five-year contract, but has struggled recently. He's 0-2 with a 6.04 ERA in his last seven starts after winning his first two starts with a 2.70 ERA.
Burnett saw his first pitch go leave the yard on Friday, as he matched his career high by serving up two more while surrendering five runs and eight hits with seven strikeouts in six innings of a 7-3 loss to Philadelphia.
"It's a matter of executing every pitch," Burnett told the Yankees' official Web site about a flaw in his delivery. "We'll work on it in the bullpen and be consistent, and take care of it. The good thing is I know how to fix it. ... If I didn't know what was the problem, I'd be worried."
Burnett is 1-2 with a 4.72 ERA in six games - five starts - against Texas, including 1-1 with a 5.21 ERA in three starts at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.
Daisuke Matsuzaka (Boston Red Sox)
Matsuzaka was instrumental to Boston's success last season by going 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA, but has struggled through three starts this year.
In his first start since coming off the disabled list because of right arm fatigue, Matsuzaka allowed four runs and five hits while throwing 80 pitches in five innings of a 5-3 loss to the New York Mets on Friday. The right-hander was placed on the DL on April 15, one day after he was tagged for five runs and five hits in one inning at Oakland.
While the Red Sox have lost all three of Matsuzaka's starts this season, they've won all three of his outings against the Twins. Matsuzaka is 2-0 with a 1.61 ERA in those games.
Debuting
Zach Jackson (Cleveland Indians)
The Rays will try to end their slide against Zach Jackson (0-0, 5.79 ERA), who was recalled Tuesday and will make his first start of the season. The left-hander made two relief outings for the Indians before being optioned to Triple-A Columbus on April 21.
In seven appearances, including four starts with the Clippers, Jackson went 3-2 with a 3.09 ERA. He's 4-5 with a 5.58 ERA in 16 career major league starts.
This will be Jackson's first appearance against the Rays.
Burke Badenhop (Florida Marlins)
Florida could use steady play from whoever is on the field Wednesday with Burke Badenhop (2-2, 5.75) set to make his first start since June 3. Badenhop, who has made 11 relief appearances this season, is getting a start with injuries and inconsistency hurting the Marlins' rotation.
The right-hander went 1-3 with a 6.75 ERA as a starter last year. He's faced the Phillies twice - both in relief - surrendering one run and two hits in 3 2-3 innings.
Badenhop will face a Phillies lineup that is batting .281 with 20 home runs while averaging 6.0 runs over its last 12 games, winning nine.
Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
Wednesday, May 27
Atlanta at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EDT). Giants starter Randy Johnson(notes) will try again for career victory No. 299 when he takes the mound against the Braves, who send Kenshin Kawakami(notes) to the hill.
STARS
Tuesday
— Zack Greinke(notes), Royals, struck out eight while pitching his fifth complete game and saw his miniscule ERA rise from 0.82 to 0.84 in Kansas City’s 6-1 win over Detroit.
— Livan Hernandez(notes), Mets, pitched New York’s first complete game of the season in a 6-1 win over Washington.
— Joe Blanton(notes), Phillies, had a career-high 11 strikeouts in seven scoreless innings, and Philadelphia held on to beat Florida 5-3.
— Adam Wainwright(notes), Cardinals, hit one of four St. Louis homers and struck out a career-high nine in seven innings of an 8-1 win over Milwaukee.
— Jayson Nix(notes), White Sox, homered twice to help Chicago beat the Los Angeles Angels 4-2. He had been hitless in seven at-bats on the current road trip.
— Justin Morneau(notes), Twins, hit a three-run homer to cap a five-run fifth inning as Minnesota beat Boston 5-2.
— Max Scherzer(notes), Diamondbacks, struck out 10 and drove in two runs to help Arizona stop San Diego’s 10-game winning streak with a 6-5 victory.
— Chris Davis(notes), Rangers, homered twice to help send Texas to a 7-3 victory over the New York Yankees.
FINALLY WINNING AGAIN
Eric Milton(notes) allowed one run in five innings for his first win in nearly three years as the Los Angeles Dodgers beat Colorado. He hadn’t won since beating St. Louis on Aug. 8, 2006, with the Cincinnati Reds. A former All-Star who pitched a no-hitter a decade ago for Minnesota, Milton had reconstructive surgery on his left elbow in June 2007 and missed all of 2008 before joining the Dodgers as a free agent in February.
SLUMPING SLUGGER
The Boston Red Sox dropped David Ortiz(notes) to sixth in the batting order as the latest remedy to try and get the slugger out of his slump. Manager Terry Francona made the change before Tuesday’s 5-2 loss at Minnesota, moving Ortiz out of the No. 3 spot for the first time since May 13, 2005. The last time he batted lower than fourth in the lineup was May 18, 2004. He had a double in three at-bats with a walk.
SIDELINED
New York Yankees center fielder Melky Cabrera(notes) left Tuesday night’s game against Texas with a strained right shoulder after running into the wall while trying to make a catch in the first inning. Preliminary X-rays showed no further damage. … The Tampa Bay Rays placed shortstop and leading hitter Jason Bartlett(notes) on the 15-day disabled list with a sprained left ankle, giving the team five injured regulars. … The Seattle Mariners placed Kenji Johjima(notes) on the 15-day disabled list Tuesday with a broken big toe, an injury that could sideline the Japanese catcher for two months. … Pittsburgh Pirates closer Matt Capps(notes) likely will miss at least a few games with a bruised pitching elbow after being struck by a line drive during Monday’s game against the Chicago Cubs.
STREAKS
Jacoby Ellsbury(notes) extended his hitting streak to 21 games, the longest run by a Red Sox player since Kevin Youkilis(notes) had a hit in 23 consecutive games two years ago. … Ichiro(notes) Suzuki extended his hitting streak to 20 games with a run-scoring single in the seventh of the Mariners’ 4-3 loss to the A’s.
SNAPPED
Arizona snapped San Diego’s 10-game winning streak with a 6-5 victory that was preserved by Chris Young’s leaping catch at the wall in the ninth inning. The Diamondbacks nearly blew a six-run lead for the second straight day. On Monday, they let the Padres rally from a 7-1 deficit in the eighth for a 9-7 victory in 10 innings.
STRUGGLING BIRDS
The Toronto Blue Jays have lost eight straight—their longest skid since a nine-game run in May 2007. With three losses in Boston, three more in Atlanta and two in Baltimore, Toronto is mired in its longest road losing streak since an eight-game slide in 2002.
FALTERING ACE
Roy Oswalt(notes) had dominated Cincinnati since 2001, when he beat the Reds as a rookie for his first big league victory. He’s 23-1 in his career against the Reds, who have never scored more than four earned runs off him in a game. This season, he has lost his touch. In three starts against the Reds, Oswalt has failed to get even one win, including getting a no-decision in Tuesday’s 6-4 loss.
SPEAKING
“That would be the hope, that he doesn’t feel like he has to carry the team. There are times when I’ve said it publicly, ‘We’re going to jump on his back and let him carry us for a couple weeks.’ That’s the kind of player he can be.”—Red Sox manager Terry Francona on moving David Ortiz down to sixth in the batting order to take more pressure off the slumping slugger.