Wednesday Matinees
By Kevin Rogers
The Wednesday afternoon baseball card provides bettors with five games to wager on, including three division battles. The Mets and Reds close out a three-game set in Cincinnati, while the Twins and Tigers continue to battle atop the AL Central at Comerica Park. We'll begin in northern Ohio as the surprising Jays look to capture another series against the Indians.
Blue Jays at Indians - 12:05 PM EST
Toronto has become the best power team in all of baseball by leading the league with 41 homers. Many people believed the loss of Roy Halladay would destroy this Blue Jays team, but Toronto's offense has picked things up as it goes for a matinee win at Cleveland.
Fausto Carmona (3-1, 4.05 ERA) is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing six earned runs in six innings of a 9-3 home setback to the Twins. The inconsistent Carmona actually put up solid numbers prior to the meltdown to Minnesota by compiling four quality starts in his four outings. Cleveland is a perfect 3-0 in Carmona's three career starts against Toronto, including a complete-game, five-hitter at home in May 2008.
The Jays send out former reliever Brandon Morrow (2-2, 5.46 ERA), who has steadily improved over his last few starts. The ex-Mariners righty gave up 12 earned runs in his first two outings, but Morrow has allowed just five earned runs in his last three starts, including wins over the Royals and A's. Morrow has struck out 25 batters his previous three outings, as the Indians' offense has compiled the third-most strikeouts in the American League.
The Tribe has scored three runs or less in six of the last eight games, all losses. In the two games in which Cleveland has put up more than three runs, the Indians beat the Twins and Angels. Cleveland is a dreadful 2-14 scoring three runs or fewer, while going 8-1 when plating at least four runs.
Mets at Reds - 12:35 PM EST
New York and Cincinnati finish off a three-game series at the Great American Ballpark with two pitchers going in opposite directions taking the hill. Jonathon Niese (1-2, 3.10 ERA) is coming off three impressive starts, while Johnny Cueto (1-1, 5.33 ERA) has delivered just one quality outing this season.
Niese turned in the best performance of his career against the Phillies his last time out, limiting the NL Champs to four hits and one earned run in seven innings of work as the Mets cruised to a 9-1 win. The southpaw has turned into a strong 'under' play this season by finishing 'under' the total in four of five starts.
Cueto has been unable to duplicate the hot start of 2009, in which the Reds' righty began 4-1. The 24-year old finally won his first game of 2010 by tossing five innings of a 3-2 road victory at St. Louis. Cueto has not lasted past the sixth inning in any of his first five starts, while not faring well against the Mets in his career, compiling an 0-3 lifetime mark.
The Mets are 6-3 in day games this season, while going 'under' the total six times. On the flip side, the Reds are just 3-6 during matinees, but have been a consistent 'under' team with a 5-1-3 mark to the 'under.'
Orioles at Yankees - 1:05 PM EST
The Bombers look for their sixth win in seven games as they conclude their series with Baltimore. The O's have had a healthy dose of division rivals recently with the last 11 contests coming against the Yankees and Red Sox. Baltimore has played better following a 2-16 start by going 5-3 the last eight games.
Andy Pettitte (3-0, 2.12 ERA) has quietly dominated opponents this season, as the Yanks have won all five starts made by the veteran lefty. New York is 8-1 the last nine at home when Pettitte starts with the lone loss coming to these Orioles last September as $3.00 'chalk.' Pettitte is coming off his first non-quality outing of the season (6 IP, 4 ER) as the Yanks came back to beat the White Sox, 6-4.
The O's send out righty David Hernandez (0-3, 4.55 ERA), who looks for his first victory since August 11, 2008 against Oakland. Baltimore picked up a pair of victories over Boston in which Hernandez started, but the 24-year old received a no-decision each time. Hernandez faced the Yanks twice last season, picking up a pair of no-decisions as Baltimore lost each contest.
The Yanks are 8-2 the last ten at home against the Orioles, while Baltimore has finished 'under' the total in 10 of 14 games on the highway.
Tigers at Twins - 1:10 PM EST
The top two teams in the AL Central won't see each other again until the end of June at Target Field following Wednesday's matchup. The Twins grabbed the opener in convincing fashion, 10-4, snapping Detroit's five-game winning streak. A pair of pitchers who have had their ups and downs take the mound as Kevin Slowey opposes Rick Porcello.
Slowey (3-2, 2.77 ERA) has lasted past the sixth inning just once in five starts this season, while coming off his third victory over the Indians last Friday. Minnesota is 4-1 in Slowey's five career starts against Detroit, despite the righty getting lit up by the Tigers at home last July in an 11-9 loss (3 IP, 6 ER). Slowey's day numbers this season (0-2, 6.10 ERA) have been dreadful compared to his night stats (3-0, 2.45 ERA).
Porcello (2-2, 8.03 ERA) has struggled over the last three starts, allowing 17 earned runs and 26 hits in 13.2 innings, while Detroit is 1-2 in this stretch. The right-hander hasn't seen much success against the Twins in his young career, as the Tigers are 1-4 in Porcello's five lifetime starts in this series. Three of those losses did come at the Metrodome, so pitching at Target Field may benefit Porcello.
The Tigers are 5-0-1 to the 'over' the last six away games, while going 7-1 in series finales this season. The Twins, who continue to play without MVP Joe Mauer, are just 3-5 in the final game of a series in 2010, including home losses as huge favorites against the Indians and Royals.
vegasinsider.com
Wednesday's Probable Best Starters
By: Freddy Willis
Enjoy our breakdown on our hot and cold pitchers which will give you a look at two featured hot pitchers going on the current day along with a struggling pitcher featured that I believe will come with a solid start. Wednesday's line up has a total of 5 hot pitchers with ERA's under 3.00 on the season and 3 cold starters with ERA's over 8.00!
Hot Starters
Matt Garza (4-1, 35 IP, 2.06 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 34 K'S)
Garza has cooled off a bit in his last few starts as he gave up 5 ER one start ago but then came back with 1 ER in 6 IP in the next. He will go up against Cliff Lee making his 2nd start since coming off his injury. Lee showed no rust in his first start going 7 IP and giving up 0 ER. It will be a little different against a Rays team that has been solid hitting .309 and scoring 6.85 R/9 in their last 5 vs. LHP. Garza has two starts on the year away with a 0.56 ERA and has not started vs. the Mariners since 2008 where he struggled. He has 4 career starts vs. the Mariners and has just 17.2 IP giving up 34 hits and 18 ER. Both teams are different now, and Garza has clearly improved. I still would not bet on this game if you ask me unless you go with the under which is 18-7-1 in the Mariners last 26home games. With two solid starters going it might be the right play considering the Mariners are hitting just .212 and scoring 2.45 runs per 9 in their last 5 vs. RHP.
Colby Lewis (3-0, 32.2 IP, 2.75 ERA 1.10 WHIP, 38 K's
Lewis is not a young pitcher by any means but you may not have heard of him in quite some time. Fact of the matter is, is he has three games with 10 strike outs and he's striking out more batters than innings pitched so this could be a good sign for him to continue putting up these numbers. He has not started against the A's since 2004 so we can throw out those stats. He is coming off a complete game in his last start so again I would be careful about this play with him as a favorite especially with who he is facing. Trevor Cahill will make the start for the A's and he is 3-1 all time vs. Texas with 25.2 IP and just 7 ER. However, Oakland will have a hard time supporting him as they face the hot pitcher and they are scoring just 1.67 runs per 9 innings in their last 5 vs. RHP.
Honorable Mention
Andy Petitte (3-0, 34 IP, 2.12 ERA) Barry Zito (4-0, 1.53 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) Brad Penny (3-1, 34.2 IP, 1.56 ERA, 1.18 WHIP)
Cold Starters
Charlie Morton (0-5, 19.1 IP, 12.57 ERA, 2.17 WHIP)
Morton is a pitcher I know a lot about as I faced him back in high school in one of the most memorable games of my high school career. He is one of the strangest pitchers with loads of talent drafted out of high school. Why is he one of the weirdest pitchers well he had one of the biggest discrepancies between road and home ERA. His home ERA last year in Pittsburgh was 3.10, but on the road it was 6.04. Same goes for day and night starts. During the day an awful 7.62 ERA, but during night starts a 3.42 ERA. Don't punch in the Cubs tomorrow it gets weirder in terms of night and day with his starts. He had two starts vs. the Cubs and in the first he went just 1 IP gave up 10 ER. In his next start he threw a complete game shut out. Both of these starts were on the road so it's not as easy as backing him at home/night and fading him away/day. Tomorrow he'll make a home/night start so if you were to back him the value is at it's highest as he has an awful ERA, but has only started one time at home.
Ice Cold
Doug Davis (22.1 IP 8.87 ERA 2.15 WHIP) Porcello (2-2, 24.2 IP, 8.03 ERA, 1.91 WHIP)
Tips and Trends
St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies
Cardinals (-119, O/U 10): St. Louis is enjoying a great start to their season, as they are currently 18-9 on the season. The Cardinals are expected to win the National League pennant, and to participate in this years World Series. The Cardinals have won 8 of their past 10 games, with six of those wins coming by multiple runs. St. Louis has a dynamic pitching staff, with many thanks to pitching coach Dave Duncan. P Brad Penny can thank Duncan for resurrecting his career, considering he's 3-1 with an ERA of 1.56 this season. Penny has joined the likes of Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright as dominant starting pitchers for the Cardinals this season. The Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last 8 games as the listed favorite. The Cardinals are 16-5 in their last 21 games against a right handed starter.
Cardinals are 8-2 last 10 overall.
Under is 7-0 last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - 2B Felipe Lopez (elbow) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 4
Phillies: Philadelphia has had a rather shaky start to their season, and they are hoping an extended home-stand will rid them of their problems. The Phillies are currently 15-11 on the season. Philadelphia is currently 6-5 at home this season, and as a title contender they know they must improve on that record. The Phillies have been rather inconsistent offensively of late, scoring 3 runs or fewer in 6 of their past 10 games. The Phillies are 8-1 in their last 9 home games against a right-handed starter, so they are excited to face the rejuvinated Brad Penny. Philaedelphia is 12-1 in their last 13 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. P Kyle Kendrick will get the start for the Phillies, and he needs a quality start in the worst way. Kendricks is currently 0-1 with an ERA of 7.61. The Phillies are 0-5 in Kendrick's last 5 starts as the listed underdog.
Phillies are 14-3 last 17 Wednesday games.
Over is 13-3 last 16 during game 3 of a series.
Key Injuries - SS Jimmy Rollins (calf) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)
Diamond Trends - Wednesday
By Vince Akins
Diamondbacks at Astros – The Diamondbacks are 0-7 since May 03, 2009 as a road dog when they are off a win in which they never trailed and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Astros are 0-6 since July 30, 2009 after being shutout and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $600 when playing against.
Rangers at Athletics – The Athletics are 1-9 since April 18, 2009 as a dog after a win in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $770 when playing against. The Athletics are 6-0 since June 06, 2009 when Trevor Cahill starts at home after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $610
Brewers at Dodgers – The Brewers are 5-0 since August 22, 2009 as a dog after a win in which they had 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $655. The Dodgers are 6-0 since June 05, 2009 at home after a loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base for a net profit of $600
Rays at Mariners – The Rays are 0-8 since April 10, 2009 on the road within 20 cents of pickem after a win in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $840 when playing against. The Rays are 0-5 since April 25, 2009 when Matt Garza starts on the road within 20 cents of pickem for a net profit of $515 when playing against.
Giants at Marlins – The Giants are 6-0 since August 08, 2009 as a 140+ favorite after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $600. The Giants are 5-0 since July 28, 2009 when Barry Zito starts after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $540 The Marlins are 8-0 since May 20, 2009 after scoring 6+ runs loss for a net profit of $930.
Rockies at Padres – The Padres are 6-0 since May 17, 2009 as a favorite after a win in which they drew 5+ walks and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $600
Cardinals at Phillies – The Cardinals are 6-0 since May 26, 2009 on the road after a loss in which they were tied at the end of 6 innings for a net profit of $605. The Phillies are 9-0 since April 13, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $940.
Cubs at Pirates – The Cubs are 0-5 since April 27, 2009 when Ted Lilly starts on the road after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $525 when playing against. The Pirates are 0-7 since July 01, 2009 as a dog after scoring 3 runs or less and winning for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Pirates are 0-7 since June 12, 2009 as a dog after a win in which they left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $700 when playing against.
Angels at Red Sox – The Angels are 10-1 since May 18, 2009 when their starter went less than four innings in his last start for a net profit of $885 The Red Sox are 8-0 since April 20, 2009 at home when they are off two wins in which they never trailed and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $845
Mets at Reds – The Mets are 0-8 since June 17, 2009 as a road dog after a win in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Mets are 0-8 since May 24, 2009 as a dog after a one run win and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Reds are 6-0 since September 16, 2009 at home within 20 cents of pickem and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $610
Tigers at Twins – The Tigers are 0-6 since July 05, 2009 when Rick Porcello starts as a road dog for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Twins are 0-5 since April 11, 2010 vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $680 when playing against.
Royals at White Sox – The Royals are 0-9 since April 19, 2009 as a road dog when they are off a win in which they never trailed and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Royals are 0-6 since May 27, 2009 as a dog after a 5+ run win and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Royals are 0-5 since June 20, 2009 when Brian Bannister starts after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start for a net profit of $515 when playing against.
Orioles at Yankees – The Orioles are 0-8 since August 09, 2009 on the road after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Orioles are 0-5 since April 15, 2009 when Mark Hendrickson starts on the road after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $500 when playing against. The Yankees are 6-0 since August 30, 2009 as a 200+ favorite and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $600