Wednesday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Shaun Marcum (5-1, 2.59), Toronto Blue Jays
Perhaps the Blue Jays dealt Roy Halladay knowing they had another ace waiting in the wings.
Marcum has put together a string of four consecutive wins and Toronto is 6-0 in his last six starts.
“It’s tough to put a lot of hits together against him because he’s a guy who’s going to hit corners, who’s going to throw different pitches. He’s unpredictable,” said Orioles catcher Matt Wieters.
The converted reliever who missed all of the 2009 season has surrendered more than three runs once all season and that came in his second start – Marcum’s only loss this year.
Johan Santana (4-2, 3.03), New York Mets
After giving up 10 and four earned runs in back-to-back outings in early May, the ace of the Mets staff has returned to dominating form.
Santana has shutout the opposition in two of his last four starts and only yielded a total of three runs in the two other outings. The reason the lefty hasn’t been a winning ticket lately is that his team has failed to support him. New York plated a total of three runs in Santana’s last three losses.
Last Friday, Santana was cruising with a three-hitter through eight innings but manager Jerry Manuel pulled him for the ninth – a move that was criticized by the media.
“I was fine at that point. He decided to go with the bullpen and that’s about it,” Santana said. “The way that everything was going, the situation, the atmosphere, everything, you don’t want to come out of the game for sure.”
Santana and the Mets are a short -120 road favorite in San Diego Wednesday.
Slumping
Scott Feldman (2-5, 5.84), Texas Rangers
What did Texas do with the guy that won 17 games in 2009 and was a flat-out road warrior? Many pundits claimed Feldman’s miraculous year was an aberration and those predictions are coming to fruition.
Feldman has surrendered at least four earned runs in his last five starts and the Rangers went 2-3 in those games. After going 12-4 on the road last year, the righty has gotten off to an 0-4 start with a 7.71 ERA away from Arlington this season.
Returning
Carlos Zambrano (1-3, 6.12), Chicago Cubs
Big Z will climb onto the mound in a starter’s role for the first time since April 20 on Tuesday.
Chicago’s former ace of the staff, Zambrano was demoted to the bullpen after going 1-2 with a 7.45 ERA to start the season.
"He should be able to go six innings, 90 pitches," manager Lou Piniella said. "We'd be very pleased with that -- a nice sharp, crisp performance and then build him up from there."
Zambrano didn’t exactly earn his way back into the rotation with quality work out of the pen. The right-hander was 0-1 with a 4.15 ERA in 13 relief appearances so who knows what to expect Wednesday.
MLB RoundUp For 6/2
By Dan Bebe
National League
Phillies @ Braves (-140) with a total of 9.5
Chase Utley was batting .391 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Lowe prior to 2010;
Chipper Jones is 6-for-13 with 2 HR and 6 RBI off Kendrick;
Nate McLouth is 3-for-8 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Kendrick;
Brian McCann is 5-for-16 with a HR off Kendrick.
Somehow, Kyle Kendrick is 4-1 with a 2.72 ERA against the Braves, and while Lowe has been very good against the Phils (prior to stinking a bit in his start against them this year), and the Phils bats have been mostly dormant, player match-ups just don't dictate that this one should make the cut. Leans: None
Diamondbacks @ Dodgers (-155) with a total of 8.5
Garrett Anderson is 3-for-9 off Jackson;
Casey Blake is 4-for-10 off Jackson.
The Dodgers clubbed Jackson to the tune of 6 runs in 6.2 innings when they saw him in Arizona, and to Jackson's credit, he is definitely an innings-eater, but at the same time, I still don't really feel like we've seen enough from the rest of the D'backs to truly believe they can beat anyone. Monasterios is a tough cookie to trust, especially at this price, and I have to say that, despite his decent work this season, I don't know about this chalk. Leans: Dodgers-1
Mets (-119) @ Padres with a total of 6.5
Chase Headley is 2-for-5 with a HR and 2 RBI off Santana.
Johan has a career 2.41 ERA against the Padres, and despite being 2-2 against them, it's tough to really find fault with either Santana's numbers against the Padres or Santana's numbers in 2010, especially his recent starts. He's been darn near unhittable. Richard, on the other hand, is actually coming off his worst start of the year, against the Nats, and I can't help but think that he's due for a couple clunkers. Richard is good, but he's not sub-3.00 ERA good, and while I wish he was pitching against a team that had a better road track record, I think we're getting a darn good price on Santana here, and I don't think it's any sort of trap. Leans: Mets-3
Cubs (-145) @ Pirates with a total of 8.5
Jeff Baker is 7-for-12 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Duke;
Aramis Ramirez is 13-for-39 with a HR and 6 RBI off Duke;
Alfonso Soriano is 14-for-36 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Duke;
Geovany Soto is 7-for-22 with 2 RBI off Duke;
Ryan Theriot is 14-for-39 with a HR and 4 RBI off Duke;
Ryan Doumit is 7-for-16 with 3 RBI off Zambrano;
Andrew McCutchen is 3-for-5 with 2 RBI off Zambrano.
There are a strikingly large number of Cubs with decent numbers against Duke, but yet, somehow, Duke's career ERA against Chicago is just 3.67. He's only 4-8 against them, but anyone that has watched this season series knows how the Pirates just keep beating up on Chicago. However, Duke is coming off getting pasted in his last start, and we know how streaky guys like Duke can be. I don't like Zambrano because of the price, and I don't like Duke because of his bad effort last time out, and trending down is a big no-no. Leans: None
Brewers @ Marlins (-110) with a total of 8.5
This is an intriguing match-up, as Gallardo pitched well in very limited action against the Marlins, and Volstad has never started against the Brewers. We might have thought we'd have some nice player data to build on, here, but alas, we don't. I do like the trends working for the Brewers, though, amazingly. Gallardo is coming off a complete game shutout against the Mets, and really, the only start that didn't go all that well came against the red hot Twins. Gallardo is dealing, and his 2.78 ERA exhibits that. Volstad just seems to give up 3 runs every time out. That might not be enough with the Brewers horrific bullpen and ability to find ways to lose, but I believe that if Gallardo can go deep in the game, Milwaukee should be firmly in the driver's seat when this one gets late. Leans: Brewers-4
Nationals @ Astros (-110) with a total of 8.5
Adam Dunn is 7-for-18 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Rodriguez;
Ryan Zimmerman is 3-for-9 with a HR and 3 RBI off Rodriguez;
Lance Berkman is 5-for-9 with 2 RBI off Lannan;
Pedro Feliz is 7-for-17 with a HR and 5 RBI off Lannan;
Jeff Keppinger is 4-for-11 with 2 RBI off Lannan;
Carlos Lee is 6-for-12 off Lannan with a HR and 2 RBI;
Hunter Pence is 4-for-10 off Lannan.
Somehow, despite Berkman, Feliz, Keppinger, Lee and Pence all hitting Lannan hard, he's 3-1 against the Astros. His 4.91 ERA seems to tell the story that he's gotten nice run support in those games. Wandy continues to struggle, so he's not really a good bet, though he, too, is 3-1 with a hefty ERA against Washington. As far as who is trending up and down, Lannan is definitely the pitcher of the two that's on the rise, but something just feels uncertain and shaky about this game. Leans: Nationals-2
Reds @ Cardinals (-230) with a total of 8
No sense getting into player numbers, since we've seen Carpenter against the Reds twice already this year. He pitched alright against them by Carpenter-standards the first time (6 innings, 2 runs), then came back the 2nd time with a dominant 7 shutout innings. The Cardinals are really starting to hit, so if I'm Sam LeCure, I'm a little concerned going into this one, and while the Cards are probably going to roll, this one is way too expensive to play, and you guys know my feelings about home run lines. Leans: None
Rockies @ Giants (-136) with a total of 7
Ryan Spilborghs is 5-for-12 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Cain;
Ian Stewart is 5-for-16 with a HR and 2 RBI off Cain;
Aaron Rowand is 6-for-11 with an RBI off Francis.
Jeff Francis is just 7-5 with a 4.74 ERA against the Giants, but Rockies numbers are always a tad skewed because of Coors Field, and with Francis it's just tough to know what we're going to get. He had 2 very strong starts since coming off the DL, then got beat up by the Dodgers in his last start. Is it bounceback time, or is it time for the adrenaline to wear off and for us to see some rust in the lefty. Cain is coming off a complete game shutout against the D'backs, and that was on the heels of 8 innings of 1 unearned run pitching against the A's, and it seems like Cain has been reinvigorated now that he's not facing the Padres. He also threw 8 shutout innings against these Rockies earlier this year. Tough to fade Cain, here. Leans: Giants-3
American League
Orioles @ Yankees (-335) with a total of 9.5
Nick Markakis is 6-for-14 with 3 RBI off Hughes;
Adam Jones is 4-for-8 with a HR and 3 RBI off Hughes;
Luke Scott is 4-for-7 with an RBI off Hughes.
Bergesen is 0-1 with a 5.68 ERA against the Yanks. Looks bad, right? Yes, and it is pretty bad. But at the same time, Hughes is 2-2 with a 5.97 ERA against Baltimore. If only this was that same Baltimore from last year. This year's version can't hit a lick with runners on base, and the bullpen is just miserable. Of course, based on the number, I think we have to put a 1/4 unit on the O's, just because we're getting just about +300 odds, and there's no reason not to, but in terms of a premium play, no way. Leans: None
Indians @ Tigers (-131) with a total of 9
Shin-Soo Choo is 7-for-19 with a HR and 3 RBI off Galarraga;
Luis Valbuena is 3-for-6 off Galarraga;
Miguel Cabrera is 7-for-22 with 2 HR and 5 RBI off Carmona.
Galarraga is garbage. The Tigers jettisoned one piece of deadweight with Dontrelle getting the ax, and in my humble opinion, Galarraga should be next. He is what he is, I'm afraid. A guy that finds the strike zone every so often, but generally gets hit hard, and the Indians are no exception. He's 3-3 with a lifetime 5.51 ERA against Cleveland, and after a good first start this year, Galarraga got hit hard by the Dodgers. I wouldn't lay chalk with him against just about anyone. Carmona is coming off 2 less-than-stellar starts, and is 6-3 career against Detroit. The Tigers are struggling to hit right now, and they've somewhat quietly lost 4 of 5 games to the A's and Indians. I think Carmona has a nice chance to continue that trend. Leans: Indians-4
Rays @ Blue Jays (-115) with a total of 8
Price tossed a complete game shutout against the Jays when he faced them earlier this year. He's 3-0 with a 2.92 ERA against Toronto, so he doesn't fear the Jay. Marcum did not face Tampa yet this season, but he's 2-0 with an 0.75 ERA against the Rays, and he's 5-1 with a 2.59 ERA against the League in 2010. The Rays are scary on the road, but Price has seemed to regress a tad in his last 2 starts, and as far as betting on which direction a particular pitcher is headed, you absolutely have to prefer Marcum in this showdown. I'm not sure there's a ton of value either way, though, given the Rays' road prowess. I think the only reason there might be value on Toronto is that Tampa has seemed to struggle lately, and might have lost last night if not for another Kevin Gregg 9th inning meltdown. Leans: Jays-3
Athletics @ Red Sox (-155) with a total of 9.5
Jack Cust is 4-for-9 with a HR and 2 RBI off Matsuzaka;
Mark Ellis is 4-for-13 with a HR and 2 RBI off Matsuzaka;
J.D. Drew is 2-for-3 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Sheets.
Sheets has been pitching better, of late, but something tells me that pitching to the red-hot Sox at Fenway might be a recipe for a much shorter, less productive outing. Daisuke seems to alternate good and bad starts lately, which is, I guess, better than his horrible work last year. You actually have to wonder if maybe it's the workload, and that his very short starts leave his arm more energized for the next time out? In any case, I'm not laying -155 with Dice-K. Leans: None
Angels @ Royals (-115) with a total of 10
Bobby Abreu is 3-for-9 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Davies;
Torii Hunter is 5-for-15 with a HR and 4 RBI off Davies;
David DeJesus is 6-for-18 with 2 RBI off Kazmir.
Scott Kazmir has almost completely neutralized the current Royals, but it almost doesn't matter. This isn't the same Kazmir. I don't know precisely what's wrong, but his 6.34 ERA on the season isn't really showing any signs of coming down. He has allowed at least 3 runs in every start he's made since May 1, including starts of 7 runs and 5 runs. He's a mess. Kyle Davies is coming off a rough start of his own, this one in Fenway, though the Sox are a much more dangerous offensive team than the Halos, especially in Boston. Davies is 1-0 with a 1.64 ERA lifetime against the Angels, though Hunter and Abreu, guys that weren't on the Angels a few years back, are two names that give him some trouble. Still, I can't help but think the Royals take 2 of 3 in this series.Leans: Royals-3
Rangers @ White Sox (-121) with a total of 9
I'm seeing Floyd and Garcia as the listed starter for the White Sox at different sites, so I'm not entirely sure what to look for. If indeed it's Floyd, then we have a REMATCH ALERT. Feldman pitched well enough, but his defense let him down, and despite allowing just 1 earned run in 6 innings, 2 unearned runs scored, as well, and Floyd beat him, giving up 1 earned in 7 innings (though he, too, allowed 2 unearned runs). I really think that fading Scott Feldman is one of the best bets going right now, but I'm scared of Texas, here. The Rangers broke free for a bunch of runs yesterday, and that snapped a 5-game losing streak, and we all know how teams rebound in sports. We might have to ride the rematch angle, despite how much I'd love to fade Feldman every time out. He's not bad against the White Sox, and he wasn't bad against them again this year. Leans: Rangers-3
Twins @ Mariners (-141) with a total of 7
Joe Mauer is 8-for-24 off Lee with 2 RBI;
Denard Span is 6-for-13 with 2 RBI off Lee;
Milton Bradley is 4-for-6 with 2 RBI off Slowey;
Jose Lopez is 4-for-6 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Slowey.
I'd love to try to find a way to fade Cliff Lee and get a ton of underdog value, but I don't believe this is the spot, at all. Slowey is 1-1 with a 7.59 ERA against the Mariners in his career, while Lee is 8-3 with a 3.57 mark against the Twins. No real lean here, as Lee hasn't truly impressed me yet this year with the type of dominance I'd want before laying -140 against the best team in the AL Central, but the Mariners should probably win this one. Leans: None
Wednesday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
The calendar has hit June, meaning the weather and pennant races are heating up quickly. On Tuesday night, the MLB card played out in exciting fashion with games galore going down to the final at-bat.
Cincinnati won a wild 9-8 decision at St. Louis to temporarily take over first place in the National League Central by one game over the second-place Cardinals. These teams meet again tonight at Busch Stadium.
The NL East has recently had the most dramatic shift in power, as the Braves have shockingly taken over first place and could extend their lead to 2 ½ games if they can beat the Phillies again today. Those division rivals will meet each other early in the afternoon.
Let’s take a look at that game and much more.
**Phillies at Braves**
Atlanta (30-22, +460) has come from out of nowhere to win seven consecutive games and take sole possession of the top slot in the NL East. The Braves captured a 7-3 win over Philadelphia on Tuesday night as minus-125 favorites. They really hooked up run-line backers with a generous plus-165 payout (paid $165 on $100 wagers). Troy Glaus popped a three-run homer off Cole Hamels in the first inning before the game had a one-hour, five-minute rain delay. Charlie Manuel elected to yank Hamels following the delay, but Bobby Cox stuck with Tim Hudson, who improved to 6-1 thanks to another stellar performance.
Philadelphia (28-23, -379) has a 15-13 road record to date. The scuffling squad has lost eight of its last 10 games. During this brutal 10-game slide, the Phillies have scored only 13 combined runs.
Derek Lowe (7-4, 4.86 ERA) has been rocked for a pair of losses by the Phillies already this season. Nevertheless, Lowe owns a 6-3 record and 3.47 career ERA against Philadelphia.
Lowe has a 4-2 record and 4.33 ERA in six starts this year. The veteran righty is coming off one of his best performances of the season, throwing seven strong innings in a 7-3 home win over Pittsburgh.
Kyle Kendrick (3-2, 5.04) is 4-1 with a 2.72 ERA in seven lifetime starts against Atlanta. The right-hander is 1-0 with a 4.34 ERA in five road assignments this year.
Glaus, who got off to a terrible start and was hearing about it from the Atlanta fans, hit .330 with 28 RBIs in June. If last night was any indicator, he won’t be hearing any boos at The Ted anytime soon.
The ‘under’ is 26-24 overall for the Braves, but the ‘over’ is 12-11 in their home games. They own an MLB-best 18-6 home record at Turner Field.
Most gambling shops have installed Atlanta as a minus-140 ‘chalk’ with a total of nine ‘over’ (minus-120). Gamblers can earn a plus-150 payout by backing the Braves to win by two runs or more.
The first pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. Eastern.
**Rays at Blue Jays**
Most books are listing Toronto (31-23, +1188) as a short minus-115 favorite with a total of eight ‘under’ (minus-115). Bettors can score a huge plus-180 payout by taking the Blue Jays on the run line (minus 1 ½ runs).
Trailing 5-0 going into the seventh inning, Tampa Bay (35-18, +772) rallied for a 7-6 win at Toronto last night. Joe Maddon’s club won as a minus-150 road favorite thanks to four runs in the ninth inning. Sean Rodriguez hit a bases-clearing double with two outs and the bases loaded to propel the first-place Rays into the win column. Rafael Soriano worked the ninth for his 15th save.
Tampa Bay LHP David Price (7-2, 2.57) is 3-0 with a 2.92 career ERA against Toronto. In five road outings this year, the left-hander from out of Vanderbilt owns a 4-1 record and 3.19 ERA.
Shaun Marcum (5-1, 2.59) has been on fire lately, posting a 3-0 record and .200 ERA his last three times out. The righty has 18 strikeouts in 18 innings over that stretch. Marcum has a 2-0 record and 0.75 ERA in three career starts against Tampa Bay.
B.J. Upton and Carl Crawford are both 1-for-8 (.125) in their careers against Marcum. Carlos Pena hasn’t fared much better with a .143 batting average in seven lifetime ABs.
Toronto has lost six of its 10 games against left-handed starters this season.
The Rays have watched the ‘under’ go 28-23 overall, 12-12 in their road outings. The ‘under’ is on a 20-9-2 run in the Rays’ last 30 games.
Totals have been an overall wash (26-26) for Toronto, but the ‘under’ is 15-12 in its home games.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Gavin Floyd will get the ball Wednesday for the White Sox against the Rangers. As Marc Lawrence points out in his latest Pitchers Report, Floyd owns a 10-2 career record in the month of June.
As of early this morning, New York veteran catcher Jorge Posada was expected to be activated from the disabled list and return to the lineup tonight vs. Baltimore. The Yankees won a 3-1 decision over the O’s last night thanks to a throwing error from Miguel Tejada that allowed two runs to score in the seventh inning.
Neil Walker, the Pirates first-round choice in 2004, hit his first career homer last night to propel the Pirates to a 3-2 win over the Cubs. Pittsburgh has now beaten Chicago seven times this year. Walker, who grew up in the Steel City, hit a two-run blast off Ted Lilly with one out in the eighth and his team trailing 2-1.
Oakland RHP Ben Sheets (2-3, 4.91) will be making his first career appearance at Fenway Park tonight when the A’s play at Boston. As of early this morning, most books had the Red Sox as minus-150 favorites with Dice-K set to toe the rubber.
Chris Carpenter will try to pull St. Louis back into a first-place tie with the Reds tonight. The Cards are minus-240 favorites. Carpeter has a 9-3 record and 2.03 ERA in 15 career starts against Cincinnati.
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