Wednesday's Tip Sheet
By Judd Hall
Could we see the last 300-game winner ever on Wednesday night? That’s a distinct possibility as San Francisco’s Randy Johnson takes the mound on the road against the Nationals.
The Big Unit’s history making start is just one of 13 games on baseball’s slate for hump day. Let’s check out a couple of games tonight and try to get some winners.
Red Sox at Tigers – 7:05 p.m. EDT on ESPN
Every team is going to have a slump at one point or another during the season. Boston (29-22, +190) looks like it’s going through its slump right now by losing four of its last six games. The Red Sox now find themselves in spot that they’re not accustomed to anymore, sitting a game behind the Yanks in the American League East.
Perhaps the BoSox should consider themselves lucky for only being a game out of first place. After all, they’re in the middle of the pack in runs per game (5.2) and home runs (61). And Boston has scored just 27 runs during its first seven matches of this 10-game road trip.
The Red Sox will turn the ball over to Josh Beckett (5-2, 4.60 ERA) in Game 2 of their series with the Tigers. Boston tends to perform better when Beckett is on the mound, as evidenced by a 7-3 record during the 2009 campaign.
Detroit (28-21, +592) finds itself sitting atop the AL Central thanks in large part to some fantastic starting pitching. They currently lead the league with an earned run average of 3.84 and only two other rotations in the Junior Circuit have more strikeouts than the 240 the Tigers have registered this year. That’s not bad when you consider that they’re without Jeremy Bonderman, who can’t evade the injury bug.
Armando Galarraga (3-5, 5.50 ERA) gets the starting nod from the Tigers for Wednesday. Redemption is no doubt on his mind as Galarraga is 0-5 in his last six starts and the team itself has gone 1-5. Things do appear to be looking up for Detroit’s No. 2 pitcher as he allowed three earned runs on ten hits in seven innings of work in a 5-1 road loss to the Orioles on May 28.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants have installed the Red Sox as $1.55 road favorites (risk $155 to win $100) with a total of 9 ½.
If you’d rather play totals in this game, then look at the ‘under’ before making a wager. Galarraga has seen the ‘under’ go 7-3 in his starts. And Beckett’s last four starts have all went ‘under’ the total.
Giants at Nationals – 7:05 p.m. EDT
LVSC has made Washington a $1.20 home “chalk” with a total of nine flat.
San Francisco (25-24, +54) sits just above .500 as they ride a 4-1 record in its last five games, with two of the four wins coming at home against the Cardinals. Now the Giants find themselves embarking on the first of their three 10-game road trips this season.
Things haven’t always gone smoothly for the Giants when travelling away from AT&T Park in 2009 as they’re just 7-15 for the year. After this series they’ll head to Miami for a four-game set with the Marlins and travel back west for a three-gamer against the D-Backs.
It’s hard to think that a team is already resigned to their fate by the start of June, but that appears to be the case with the Nationals. Washington (13-36, -2,146) owns the worst record in Major League Baseball and fading them has turned them into a virtual ATM machine for the betting public. They’ve lost six consecutive contests and 15 of its last 17 games.
Like I mentioned earlier, Randy Johnson (4-4, 5.71 ERA) gets the starting nod with 299 career wins. He’s lost an MPH or three on his fastball, but Johnson has performed admirably as the Giants’ No. 2 starter. He hasn’t done well on the road this year as evidenced by a 0-2 record and bloated earned run average of 8.50.
The Nats are putting their faith in Jordan Zimmerman (2-2, 6.07 ERA) to help turn around their fortunes. That faith might be a tad misplaced since Washington is 1-5 in his last six starts. Zimmerman himself is 0-2 with a 7.37 ERA for the month of May.
As bad as his numbers might look for the last month, Zimmerman was the victim of some poor fielding behind him. He did rather well when just focusing on the batter as evidenced by a strikeout-to-walk ratio that is nearly at 4:1.
For the year the Nationals have seen the ‘over’ go 25-21-3 for the season and 12-10-1 at home. However, Washington has seen ‘under’ cash in at an 8-3 clip over its past 11 matches.
San Francisco has also watched the ‘over’ go 25-21-3 during the 2009 campaign. That includes a 5-2 run in its last seven games. But the Giants saw the ‘under’ post a 5-1 mark in their last road trip.
Royals at Rays – 7:08 p.m. EDT
Most betting shops have made the Rays $1.50 home favorites for this matchup with the total rolling in at 9 ½.
If you were to have asked Tampa Bay (25-28, -772) where it would be at this point of the year, fourth place in the AL East would not have been its answer. Yet that is exactly where the Rays find themselves six games behind the Yankees in baseball’s toughest division.
The Rays are mired in a 2-6 slump which includes a horrid four-game sweep to Cleveland. While much has been made of the problems of Tampa Bay’s bullpen, its starting rotation has been a total disappointment by ranking 11th in the AL with 5.00 ERA.
Kansas City (23-27, -380) was supposed to be this year’s version of the Rays and it looked that way as they jumped out to an 18-11 start. Since then, the Royals have stumbled to a 5-16 mark, including a recent four-game skid.
The Royals are heading out on a nine-game trek that will see them heading out to Toronto and Cleveland after this three-game set in Tropicana Field. Kansas City needs to make something happen on this road trip as they’re 5 ½ games behind the Tigers in the AL Central. It’s easier said than done when you consider that KC is 8-12 on the road in 2009.
If there is anything that Kansas City can rely on it’s the inconsistency of the Rays. They have not hit as well as they thought after adding Pat Burrell (.250, 1 HR, 17 RBI) to the lineup to go along with the aforementioned pitching issues. Those problems have taken their toll at what was once a formidable fortress, The Trop. Tampa Bay had the best home record in baseball at 57-24 en route to the 2008 AL Pennant. This year, the Rays are just 13-11 at Tropicana Field.
The Royals give the starting nod to Brian Bannister (4-2, 3.64 ERA) for this showdown. It isn’t a stretch to think that KC will come out on top here as they’re 6-2 for the season when Bannister pitches.
While Bannister has given Kansas City some solid efforts this year, the scores have stayed high recently. The ‘over’ is on a 4-2 run when Bannister takes the mound.
Tampa Bay will entrust Jeff Niemann (4-4, 4.44 ERA) with the starting duties. Niemann pitched only three innings in his last start on May 28 in Cleveland thanks to a sizeable rain delay. While he gave up just one earned run on five hits, he still took the “L” in the 2-1 decision.
Outside of that rain delay game that he just tossed in, Niemann has been a best friend to ‘over’ bettors. Totals have been eclipsed in six of his last eight starts.
It’s going to be interesting to see how the Royals handle Niemann as they’re dead last in the AL with a .247 batting average against right-handed pitching.
This has been a series that’s been dominated by the home team going 12-8 dating back to 2006.
The ‘under’ has been a solid wager as it cashed tickets in five of the last seven head-to-head meetings.
vegasinsider.com
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Cincinnati (27-24) at St. Louis (30-22)
Johnny Cueto (4-3, 2.53 ERA) tries for his first victory in more than three weeks when he guides the Reds against Kyle Lohse (4-3, 3.98) and the Cardinals as these N.L. Central rivals continue a four-game series at Busch Stadium.
St. Louis bounced back from Monday’s 5-3 loss and evened this series with a 5-2 victory Tuesday to end a two-game slide and improve to 9-5 in its last 14 contests. The Redbirds are on surges of 24-10 at Busch Stadium (6-2 last eight), 6-2 against N.L. Central foes, 8-2 against teams with a winning record and 6-1 on Wednesday.
The Reds have lost four of five overall, seven of their last eight on the road (all against right-handed starters) and five of six against winning teams, but they’re 5-1 in their last six Wednesday outings.
Cincinnati still leads the season series 3-2 against the Cardinals, but the host has won nine of the last 12 clashes dating to last summer. Additionally, the Red are still just 16-37 in their last 53 games in St. Louis.
Cueto has been a workhorse for Cincinnati, pitching exactly seven innings in five consecutive starts and seven of his last eight, while going eight innings in the other outing. He’s also surrendered three earned runs or less in seven of those eight starts, but he hasn’t earned a victory since a 10-3 win at Arizona on May 13. Over his past three starts, Cueto is 0-2 with a 3.86 ERA, including a tough-luck 3-2 loss at Milwaukee on Friday in which the right-hander yielded all three runs on three hits and four walks in seven innings.
Cueto is 3-1 with a 1.87 ERA in five road starts, four of which Cincinnati has won. He also beat the Cardinals 6-4 at home on May 8, allowing one run on five hits in seven innings. As a rookie last season, though, Cueto went 0-2 with a 16.20 ERA in two starts versus St. Louis, including a 7-2 loss at Busch Stadium in which he got tagged for all seven runs (six earned) in 1 2/3 innings.
Lohse has been sidelined with a forearm injury since May 23, when he tossed a complete-game, four-hit shutout against the Royals, winning 5-0 at home. That sterling performance came after a three-start slump in which Lohse went 0-3 with a 10.67 ERA. The veteran right-hander is 4-2 with a 3.13 ERA at Busch Stadium this season, but St. Louis is 2-5 in his last seven starts overall (2-2 at home). Also, he’s 1-3 with a 6.26 ERA in five starts under the lights, compared with 3-0 with a 1.67 ERA in four daytime outings.
Lohse got rocked in Cincinnati on May 9, giving up a season-high seven runs on nine hits in six innings of an 8-3 setback. He’s now 1-2 with a 5.84 ERA in four career starts against the Reds.
The under is 19-7-1 in Cueto’s last 27 starts overall, 13-3-1 in his last 17 on the highway and 5-1 in his last six against Central Division foes. However, with Lohse pitching, the over is on streaks of 7-4 overall and 4-1 versus the N.L. Central.
St. Louis carries “under” streaks of 11-3 overall, 8-0 at home, 7-1 versus divisional rivals, 5-0-1 on Wednesday and 8-1 against right-handed starters. Meanwhile, the under is 16-6-1 in the Reds’ last 23 road games, 5-1 in their last six against divisional foes. Finally, the first two games in this series have stayed low, ending a seven-game “over” streak in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (30-22) at Detroit (28-22)
Josh Beckett (5-2, 4.60) looks to continue his resurgence when he leads the Red Sox against the Tigers and Armando Galarraga (3-5, 5.50) in the middle game of a three-game series at Comerica Park.
Boston scored a 5-1 victory in Tuesday’s series opener, the team’s second consecutive win as it improved to 4-4 on a current 10-game road trip. Still, the Red Sox have been average at best lately, going 5-6 in their last 11 contests and 4-7 in their past 11 against right-handed starters. On the bright side, Terry Francona’s squad enjoys positive runs of 15-6 against winning teams, 25-11 when playing on grass and 48-20 against the A.L. Central.
The Tigers are struggling offensively, producing four runs or fewer in nine of their last 12 games. Still, Detroit is on surges of 11-6 overall, 10-4 at Comerica Park, 5-1 against teams with a winning record, 14-6 on grass and 5-2 on Wednesday.
The Red Sox are 6-2 against Detroit since the beginning of last season, taking four of the last five meetings at Comerica Park. Still, the home team 10-6 in the last 16 head-to-head clashes.
Becket has delivered five consecutive quality starts (2.38 ERA), with Boston winning four of those five contests. In Thursday’s 3-1 victory at Minnesota, Beckett went seven innings and gave up the one run (a solo homer) on three hits and four walks while striking out eight. The veteran right-hander is 3-2 with a 4.99 ERA in five road starts, but 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his last three as a visitor. The Red Sox are 25-12 in Beckett’s last 37 on the highway and 7-1 in his last eight when facing A.L. Central opponents.
Galarraga ended a string of five consecutive poor starts (0-4, 9.93 ERA) with a decent effort on Thursday at Baltimore, as he gave up three runs on 10 hits over seven innings. However, it wasn’t enough to keep Galarraga from losing his fifth straight game, as Detroit fell 5-1. In five starts at Comerica this season, the right-hander is 2-2 with a 5.55 ERA.
Beckett has faced Detroit just twice in his career, going 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA. Meanwhile, Galarraga got blasted in his only career start against the Red Sox last May, surrendering five runs on seven hits in 5 1/3 innings, but his offense bailed him out in a 10-9 home win.
The under is on an 11-4-2 roll in this rivalry. Additionally, Boston carries “under” streaks of 12-4 overall (6-1 last seven, all on the road, 5-0 when facing right-handed starters, 10-3-1 when playing on grass and 4-0 behind Beckett. Finally, the “under” for the Tigers is on runs of 11-3 overall, 7-0 at home, 10-3 against righty starters, 8-3 versus the A.L. East and 4-1 with Galarraga on the hill.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
Gametimepicks.com
Wednesday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
By Covers.com
Streaking
Josh Beckett (Boston Red Sox)
Terry Francona has had an easier time adding wins to his resume with Josh Beckett finally settling down for the Boston Red Sox.
After earning his 500th victory with Boston, Francona sends Beckett to the mound against the struggling Detroit Tigers in the middle game of their series Wednesday night.
Beckett is 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA in his last three starts after posting a 7.22 ERA through his first five outings.
The right-hander gave up one run and three hits while striking out eight in seven innings to earn the decision in a 3-1 win over Minnesota on Thursday.
Beckett is 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in two career starts against the AL Central-leading Tigers (28-22), who have scored three runs or fewer in four of their last five games. Detroit didn't get a hit Tuesday from the fourth inning until they started the ninth with three straight singles off closer Jonathan Papelbon.
Boston, meanwhile, has scored a combined 13 runs in its last two games after averaging 2.6 in its previous five contests, losing four.
Michael Pelfrey (New York Mets)
Pelfrey (4-1, 3.88 ERA) has become accustomed to getting little help of late. Over his last four starts, the right-hander has gone 0-1 with a 2.28 ERA and has received only four runs to work with.
On Friday, he yielded one run and five hits with struck out six in 7 2-3 innings of a 2-1, 11-inning win over the Marlins.
"My command was good but it wasn't as down as I'd like," Pelfrey said. "I know if I can pound the strike zone I can go deep into games and not walk guys."
Pelfrey, who hasn't won since beating Philadelphia 7-5 on May 7, has put together a stretch of five quality starts. He's also given up three runs or less in his last seven, going 3-1 with a 2.96 ERA.
He won his only career start against the Pirates on Aug. 15, scattering seven hits in seven scoreless innings of a 2-1 win at PNC Park.
Scott Feldman (Texas Rangers)
Scott Feldman (4-0, 3.91) is 4-0 with a 2.59 ERA in seven starts after being used out of the bullpen for the first two weeks of the season.
The right-hander earned a win in his last outing, allowing two runs and five hits in six innings during Texas' 5-2 victory over Oakland on Friday night in the second game of a doubleheader.
Feldman is 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in two starts and one relief appearance against the Yankees.
Slumping
Jordan Zimmermann (Washington Nationals)
Rookie Jordan Zimmermann (2-2, 6.07) will match up against Johnson on Wednesday. The 23-year-old right-hander, the club's top pitching prospect, gave up five runs in six innings of Washington's loss at San Francisco on May 12.
"I hope I'm not part of history tomorrow," Zimmermann said Tuesday. "I have to go out there and pitch my game and not think about history in the making, I guess."
Brian Bannister (Kansas City Royals)
Though the Royals have not announced an official starter for this contest, Brian Bannister (4-2, 3.64) could get the nod while trying to bounce back from his worst start of the season.
The right-hander allowed six earned runs and nine hits in five innings of an 11-2 loss to the Chicago White Sox on Friday. He is 1-2 with a 4.42 ERA against Tampa Bay.
Returning
Kyle Lohse (St. Louis Cardinals)
It's been an up-and-down opening two months of the season for St. Louis' Kyle Lohse, who returns to the mound after a recent arm injury hoping to build off his last start.
Lohse and the Cardinals continue their four-game series with Cincinnati on Wednesday, trying to extend their home dominance over the Reds.
Lohse (4-3, 3.98 ERA) recorded a career-high 15 victories for St. Louis (30-22) in 2008 and he opened this season by winning his first three decisions. The right-hander injured his knee while covering first base at the end of April, however, and struggled in his first three starts in May, going 0-3 with a 10.67 ERA.
Lohse appeared to bounce back in his last outing, scattering four hits through eight innings in a 5-0 win over Kansas City on May 23. That performance was soured, however, when he was hit in the arm by a pitch, forcing him to miss his next start.
"I don't know exactly what was going on inside there," he told the Cardinals' official Web site, "but I can tell you what I was feeling was a lot of burning and kind of a cramping sensation when I tried to throw hard. ... You can throw through a lot of things, but not that."
This will be Lohse's second start this season against the Reds (27-24), who reached him for seven runs and nine hits over six innings in an 8-3 victory on May 9.
Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
Wednesday, June 3
Chicago Cubs at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EDT). Chicago's Ted Lilly and Atlanta ace Derek Lowe each go for their seventh win. Lilly went 4-2 with a 3.32 ERA in six May starts while Lowe was 4-2 with a 3.76 ERA last month.
STARS
Tuesday
-Roy Halladay, Blue Jays, struck out a career-high 14 to win his major league-leading ninth game in Toronto's 6-4 win over the Los Angeles Angels.
-Dan Uggla and Cody Ross, Marlins. Uggla became the fastest second baseman to 100 homers, and Ross belted a grand slam in Florida's 10-3 win over Milwaukee.
-Zach Duke, Pirates, outpitched Johan Santana to lead Pittsburgh to a 3-1 win over the New York Mets.
-Matt Joyce, Rays, hit a two-run homer and finished with four RBIs in Tampa Bay's 6-2 victory over Kansas City.
-Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada, Yankees, each hit a three-run homer to help New York beat Texas 12-3 and take over the best record in the AL.
-Joe Mauer, Twins, homered and drove in three runs in Minnesota's 4-3 victory over Cleveland.
HALFWAY THERE
The Dodgers reached the halfway point of Manny Ramirez's suspension for violating baseball's drug policy - and they still have the best record in the game at 36-18. A late rally helped them beat Arizona 6-5 Tuesday night, making them 15-10 since their star slugger received a 50-game ban. Ramirez is eligible to return July 3, when the Dodgers begin a series in San Diego.
NICE COMPANY
Derek Jeter became the fourth active player with 1,500 runs in New York's 12-3 victory against the Texas Rangers, joining Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr. and Gary Sheffield. ... The Boston Red Sox beat the Detroit Tigers to give manager Terry Francona his 500th victory. Francona became the third Boston manager to reach that plateau with the Red Sox, joining Joe Cronin (1,071) and Mike Higgins (560).
WELCOME TO THE MAJORS
Vin Mazzaro pitched into the seventh inning to win his major league debut, leading the Athletics to a 5-0 victory over the Chicago White Sox. Mazzaro, who had his contract purchased from Triple-A Sacramento before the game, allowed three hits, walked four and struck out one in 6 1-3 innings. He became the first Oakland pitcher to win his major league debut since Dallas Braden on April 24, 2007, at Baltimore.
MIGHTY STICK
Matt Joyce probably earned himself more than a three-games stay with the Rays by hitting a tiebreaking two-run double and a two-run homer in Tampa Bay's 6-2 win over the Royals on Tuesday night. Joyce also homered Sunday after being recalled from Triple-A Durham, where he'd gone after three games early in the season.
THAT JUST HAPPENED
Cincinnati's Ramon Hernandez stole his first base since May 6, 2007 - and he did it against Yadier Molina. The Reds catcher made only the 14th steal attempt all season off the Cardinals' backstop, who has thrown out five runners.
LITTLE HELP, GUYS?
The Mets have scored two runs or less in five of Johan Santana's 11 starts, and backed their ace with just one Tuesday night in a 3-1 loss to the Pirates.
SO CLOSE
The Cubs gave up a tying, two-run homer with two outs in the ninth inning and lost in the 12th, slipping back to .500 with their 11th loss in 15 games after falling 6-5 in Atlanta.
SPEAKING
"Memphis is a nice place and all. But I like it a little better here.'' - Cardinals rookie Nick Stavinoha after a go-ahead two-run double helped St. Louis beat Cincinnati 5-2 Tuesday night. Stavinoha has 12 RBIs in 45 at-bats since a mid-May callup from Triple-A Memphis.