Wednesday's Early Action
By Judd Hall
July starts off with a bang for bettors with 15 games on Wednesday. And three of those matches will have kicked off by 1:35 p.m. EDT. The Marlins take to the field early as they continue to chase Philadelphia in the National League east. Meanwhile, the Rays finish up their series in Toronto. Both of those clubs are trying to catch up with the Red Sox, who are also playing early.
Nationals at Marlins – 12:10 p.m. EDT
It’s always a good thing to play a lousy team when you’re trying to make up ground in a divisional race. That’s exactly what Florida is doing as they close out its series against the Nationals from Landshark Stadium.
The Marlins needed this matchup to rebound from a sweep in Tampa Bay over the weekend…particularly Hanley Ramirez. Florida’s sure fire All-Star went 1-for-13 against the Rays. In the Fish’s series opening 4-2 win, Ramirez was 3-for-4 with a run batted in. We shouldn’t expect anything less from him as he has a lifetime .338 batting average, 38 RBI and 15 home runs against Washington.
Florida will need Ramirez to keep plugging away against Jordan Zimmermann (3-3, 4.65 ERA). You’d expect that to happen since the Nats’ pitching staff is next to last in team earned run average (5.22) and walks allowed (307). Yet Zimmermann has been performed admirably as of late. The Nationals have won his last two starts and he has a 1.57 ERA in his past three nods.
Zimmermann knows that he’s got a decent offense to support him. The Nats are hitting .258 with 71 homers this season. Ryan Zimmerman has a .346 batting average with a .577 slugging percentage over the last week. And Josh Willingham is hitting .440 with three RBI in his last seven games.
As good as things might seem for the Nationals at the plate, they’ll have to step up their game against Florida’s Josh Johnson (7-1, 2.76 ERA). The Marlins’ ace has been everything you want in a starter. He’s been eating innings up (averaging 7.1 innings per start since May 24) and he’s striking out the opposition (strikeout to walk ratio of 3:1 since May 24). Plus, Johnson is 4-0 with a 3.49 ERA in six starts against Washington.
It’s that quality from Johnson that has Las Vegas Sports Consultants installing Florida as a heavy $1.75 home “chalk” with a total of 7 ½.
This series has been dominated by the Marlins in 2009 with the Fish going 7-0. The ‘over’ has been a smart play here as it is 5-2 during the season. However, an ‘under’ wager still works despite the low total when considering how both Johnson and Zimmermann have been pitching.
Rays at Blue Jays – 1:05 p.m. EDT
It took a while for Tampa Bay to find its groove this season, but they’re clicking right now. The Rays have won 13 of their last 17 games to get back into the thick of the AL East. No team is hitting better than Tampa Bay over the last week with a .298 batting average, seven four-baggers and 36 RBI.
Carl Crawford has come alive at the plate in his last seven games by hitting .444 with one homer and five RBI to go along with three stolen bases. B.J. Upton is also stepping up with a .320 average, six RBI and three steals. That duo has helped the Rays average just over six runs per game.
If Tampa Bay can give James Shields (6-5, 3.41 ERA) some run support on Wednesday, then he’ll have a good day. “Big Game James” is starting to get rolling as the Rays have won five of his last six starts…a great rebound from his 0-4 run that he had in May. During his hot streak, James is averaging just under seven innings per start with an ERA of 3.07.
While the Rays are rising up the standings, Toronto is making a descent. The Blue Jays have dropped six of their last 10 games, which includes an inexcusable three-game sweep at the hands of MLB doormat Washington.
You can definitely say that the Jays’ batters aren’t seeing the ball too well as they’re hitting a combined .178 over their last three games. During this slump, Toronto is leaving just over nine runners on base.
As bad as their hitting has been, it seems to perk up when Rickey Romero (5-3, 3.20 ERA) takes the mound. The Jays definitely respond with him on the mound as they are 4-1 in his last five starts. Also, Romero is 4-1 with a 2.90 ERA in the five games he’s started at Rogers Centre during the 2009 campaign.
Despite the strong numbers for Romero, the Rays have been installed as $1.17 road favorites with a total of 8 ½.
That line has to be set on experience…or lack thereof. This will be Romero’s first career start against the defending AL champions. Shields, on the other hand, will be making his ninth start against the Blue Jays. Tampa Bay’s hurler is 4-2 with a 3.07 ERA in those contests. But the Rays have lost both starts that Shields has had in stadium formerly known as SkyDome.
Keep a close eye on the ‘under’ for this contest as it is 7-2 in the last nine head-to-head meetings. It also lends credence to the fact that the ‘under’ is 4-0 run in the last four tilts that Mike Eastbrook was calling balls and strikes.
Red Sox at Orioles – 1:35 p.m. EDT
You know you’re having a good season when you’ve lost two of your last six games and people consider that a slump. Boston boasts the best record in the American League thanks to being in the Top 10 in team batting (.268) and team pitching (4.02 ERA). If there is anything you can say is a negative is that Kevin Youkilis’ batting average went down 91 points. Yeah, he’s hitting just .313 instead of the .404 average he had at the end of last month.
Boston will look to lock up another “W” when Josh Beckett (9-3, 3.48 ERA) toes the slab on Wednesday afternoon. Beckett has had a fantastic June, going 4-1 with a 1.53 ERA. And he didn’t allow a single earned run in those victories.
The only chink in Beckett’s armor is that he’s only 2-2 with a 5.81 ERA in the daytime this year. That shouldn’t make anyone worry since he’s 33-16 with a 3.86 ERA for his career when Beckett pitches under the Sun.
There is no value in taking the BoSox as far as bettors are concerned here as LVSC has made them $1.60 road favorites with a total of nine.
So does that mean it’s a good time to take the Orioles for a plus-150 return (risk $100 to win $150)? Taking Baltimore is probably not a good idea.
Baltimore is just 10-17 against teams from the AL East this year. And they tend to wilt even more when facing the top pitchers of divisional opponents. This is a club that had five meaningless singles against Jon Lester on Monday night. Also, the Orioles are hitting just .213 with one homer and 14 total runs scored against Boston…that’s the worst they hit against AL East club.
For the O’s to win on Wednesday, they’ll need a Herculean effort out of Brad Bergesen (5-2, 3.76 ERA). And if anyone on Baltimore’s staff could win, it would be him. The Orioles have won five of Bergesen’s last six starts. Even better for gamblers is that the O’s have won the last two games where Bergesen was listed as an underdog (June 14 vs. Atlanta, June 20 at Philadelphia).
Now it’s not going to be an easy task for Baltimore to come out on top here…after all, the Red Sox have won eight straight against them. Something else to look at is Boston has covered the run line in six of those eight wins.
vegasinsider.com
Wednesday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
By Covers.com
Streaking
Brad Bergesen (Baltimore Orioles)
The rookie righthander has been extremely tough at Oriole Park, showing uncommon poise that will help as he matches up with Boston’s Josh Beckett.
In Bergesen’s last start, he hung around for six innings to get the win over Washington, allowing one run and four hits even though he did not have anywhere near his best stuff.
"He struggled to get through it,” manager Dave Trembley told the team’s web site. “You saw so many three-ball counts early in the game, which was really uncharacteristic of him. But it was a step up and pitch your butt off when he needed it, and he did.”
The win gave Bergesen a 5-1 mark with a 3.10 ERA at home. He is 3-0 in his last four starts at Camden Yards.
Ricky Romero (Toronto Blue Jays)
With Toronto’s rotation in shambles, Romero has stepped up to provide some stability behind ace Roy Halladay.
In five July starts, he pitched at least into the seventh inning in each one, surrendering no more than three earned runs. He averaged nearly a strikeout per inning and went 3-1, with his only loss a 1-0 setback to Kansas City.
The lefthander has pitched 12 straight scoreless innings.
Yovani Gallardo (Milwaukee Brewers)
With a little better support from his free-swinging lineup, Gallardo could have won his last seven starts.
Instead, the righthander is 4-2 in that stretch, with no decision despite eight scoreless innings vs. St. Louis. He has allowed no more than three earned runs and racked up 52 strikeouts in 46 innings.
Having faced Chris Carpenter, Justin Verlander and Matt Cain in that span, he catches a break and opposes Mike Pelfrey rather than Mets ace Johan Santana.
Slumping
Jon Garland (Arizona Diamondbacks)
With no decision in his last two starts, Garland is almost streaking by his standards.
The righthander had lost his previous five starts. The Diamondbacks have lost his last seven starts.
The gory details: 48 hits, 20 walks, 25 earned runs, zero wins. His season ERA of 5.04 would be his worst since his rookie season.
Jair Jurrjens (Atlanta Braves)
Jurrjens attributed his winless June to “bad luck.” And while he pitched better than his record would suggest, the Braves lost every one of his five starts.
The righthander can point to his teammates managing just 10 runs in those games and the four unearned runs in his last two outings. Detractors will note that Jurrjens has allowed 30 hits and 11 walks in 29 1-3 innings.
“Bad luck” may be matching up Jurrjens with Philadelphia’s Cole Hamels. But it’s more than “bad luck” when you have won just once in your last seven home starts.
Giants, Cards headline ESPN
By Sportsbook.com
San Francisco Giants (41-34 ) At St. Louis Cardinals (41-37 )
Date: Wednesday July 1st
Time: 8:15 PM ET
TV: ESPN
Line: Cardinals -135 / Giants +115
Total: 7 ½ Under -115 / Over -105
Giants Road Record: 17-22
Cardinals Home Record: 22-19
Giants Last 10: 7-3
Cardinals Last 10: 4-6
Pitchers:
Matt Cain (SF) 9-2 / 2.57 ERA / 85 K’s
Adam Wainwright (STL) 8-5 / 3.51 ERA / 89 K’s
ESPN brings us a great pitching matchup Wednesday night when Giants CY Young candidate Matt Cain will do battle with rising star Adam Wainwright on a hot and muggy night in St. Louis. The 2nd place Giants won the opener Monday night when Giants ‘ace’ Tim Lincecum pitched a 2 hit shutout. The Giants have been the surprise of the National League so far; they have been riding great pitching and timely hitting, and are in contention for a playoff spot. The Cards are having a great season as well, sitting 1 game out of 1st place in the competitive NL Central.
The St. Louis Cardinals traded for Mark DeRosa to help spark an inconsistent lineup that's struggled despite another MVP-caliber season from Albert Pujols. St. Louis acquired DeRosa from Cleveland on Saturday night, hoping the versatile infielder could provide some protection for Pujols and jump-start an offense that had totaled eight runs and batted .214 while dropping three of its last four games before the trade.
The Giants (40-34) avoided a three-game sweep at Milwaukee with a 7-0 victory Sunday. Nate Schierholtz homered and finished with four hits and two runs scored. It was the fourth multi-hit performance in five games for Schierholtz, who's 12 for 21 (.571) with two homers, three RBIs and five runs scored in that stretch. Schierholtz hopes to continue his hot streak against St. Louis.
San Francisco won two of three against St. Louis in the teams' first series of the year at the end of May in San Francisco. Pujols, leading the majors with 28 homers and 74 RBIs, was 7 for 11 (.636) with two homers and four runs scored in that series.
The Cards start and finish with Albert Pujols who is hitting .328 with 28 HR’s and 75 RBI. He is the NL MVP at the this point and if De Rosa, Ankiel or Ludwick start hitting as expected the Cards should continue to roll.
Khalil Green homered in his first three games after going on the 15-day disabled list with social anxiety disorder. Greene scuffled the next five games, going 1 for 17 with five strikeouts, and the anxiety resurfaced. The Cardinals placed him on the DL for a second time on Monday.
Catcher Yadier Molina was out of the lineup for the second straight day with soreness from a home plate collision. La Russa said Molina has improved from Sunday, when he was unable to squat, and the Cards are expecting him in the lineup for the Giants series.
Wainwright held the Twins to three runs (two earned) on seven hits in seven innings Friday, but still picked up his fifth loss of the season. He walked four in this one, and two of those walks scored. The four walks were the most he has given up since April 29, but he still put himself in position to win this game. Too bad the Twins' pitching virtually shut out the Cardinals' bats.
Cain allowed five runs on six hits in seven innings against the Brewers Friday. He struck out nine but walked four, bringing his season ratio to 85:41. He also gave up his 11th home run of the season, a surprisingly high total considering his 2.57 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.
The Giants Bullpen is led by Brian Wilson 20 saves a 3.92 ERA and 39 K’s in 34 innings pitched. Wilson picked up his 20th save Wednesday after throwing a one-third of an inning against the A's. It was his eighth save of the month of June, and he has yet to allow a run in 9.2 innings of work. He has only allowed four hits in the month while striking out 14.
Ryan Franklin is the Cards closer and he has delivered a clean ninth inning against Minnesota on Saturday for his 18th save of the season. He hasn't blown a save since May 10, while Franklin's ERA is now a tidy 0.93. It'd hardly be surprising if he were selected to pitch for the National League in the All-Star Game next month. He's now gone 11 straight outings without surrendering a run.
It's always sweltering in St. Louis after Memorial Day, and this week is no different. It's expected to be in the mid-90s all week with stifling humidity. Skipper Tony La Russa won his 2,500th game as a major league manager on Sunday and ranks third all-time behind Connie Mack (3,831) and John McGraw (2,763). "
Betting Trends:
Giants are 9-1 in Matt Cain’s last 10 starts
The UNDER is 6-2 in Matt Cain’s last 8 starts
Cardinals are 1-5 in their last 6 games
Cardinals are 18-7 in Adam Wainwright’s last 25 starts
The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 games between the two teams
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Francisco (42-34) at St. Louis (41-38)
The surging Giants will try to make it four in a row when they send Matt Cain (9-2, 2.57 ERA) to the mound at Busch Stadium to face the struggling Cardinals and right-hander Adam Wainwright (8-5, 3.51).
San Francisco has won the first two of this four-game set, including Tuesday’s 6-3 victory behind solid pitching from veteran lefty Randy Johnson and scoreless work from three relievers. The Giants have won five of their last seven, all on the road, and eight of their last 11 overall. Meanwhile the Cardinals have dropped six of their last seven and four of five on this homestand.
San Francisco is 6-1 in its last seven matchups with the Cardinals and 6-2 in the last eight played at Busch Stadium. Even with the first two wins in this series, the Giants are just 14-28 against N.L. Central teams and 29-57 on the road against teams with winning records. St. Louis is on several slides that include 0-6 against the N.L. West, 0-4 as a favorite and 2-6 against teams with winning records.
Cain has been superb on the highway this season, posting a 4-1 mark and 2.72 ERA. He did get roughed up on Friday, giving up five runs on six hits in seven innings of a 5-1 loss in Milwaukee, only the second time in his last eight starts he’s allowed more than one earned run in a game. Cain faced these Cardinals on May 29 and held them to two runs (one earned) in 6 1/3 innings of a 4-2 victory. With Cain on the hill, the Giants are on slides of 8-20 as a road ‘dog and 3-18 on the road against teams with a winning record, but they are on runs of 4-1 on the road this season and 4-1 against teams with a winning mark.
Wainwright is 3-4 at Busch Stadium this season with a 2.55 ERA and was solid in his Friday outing, giving up three runs (two earned) over seven innings of a 3-1 home loss to the Twins. He pitched in San Francisco on May 31 and gave up four runs on 10 hits in seven innings of a 5-3 loss. With Wainwright dealing, the Cardinals are on streaks of 18-7 at home, 35-17 overall and 19-7 when they’ve lost their previous game.
San Francisco has stayed under the total in six of Cain’s last eight starts and 12 of his last 18 roadies against teams with winning records. Meanwhile, the Cards have topped the total in six of Wainwright’s last seven starts, but stayed under the number in seven of his last 10 against the N.L. West.
As a team, it’s all “unders” for the Giants, including 15-8-1 on the road, 13-6-1 as a road ‘dog, 8-4 against a right-handed starter and 6-2 in the third game of a series. For St. Louis, the under is on runs of 14-6 as a home favorite, 21-10-1 at home against winning teams and 4-2 overall. In this series, the over has been the play in nine of the last 11 contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (42-33) at Texas (41-35)
The Rangers snapped the Angels’ six-game winning streak on Tuesday and send veteran righty Kevin Millwood (8-5, 2.64 ERA) to the mound at the Ballpark in Arlington tonight to face Los Angeles’ right-hander, Jered Weaver (8-3, 2.56).
After dropping three straight, Texas came out hitting on Tuesday with eight runs in the first four innings en route to a 9-5 victory over the Angels. The first seven hitters in their lineup all had a hit and the first six all scored at least one run. Los Angeles has won four of five on its current road trip while the Rangers are just 2-3 on the homestand.
Texas has taken six of the last eight meetings against the Angels, who are still rolling with a 13-4 mark in their last 17 overall, 5-1 as a ‘dog and 7-1 on the highway. The Rangers are on streaks of 18-5 against the A.L. West and 8-3 on Wednesdays, but they are just 1-6 against teams with a winning record and 3-6 at home against winning teams.
Weaver has looked shaky in his last two outings, giving up nine runs (eight earned) on 14 hits over 11 1/3 innings in a loss at home to the Dodgers and a road win in Arizona on Friday. He faced these Rangers on May 17 and gave up three runs on six hits over eight innings but go no offensive support in the 3-0 loss. Los Angeles is 4-1 in Weaver’s last five as a ‘dog and 4-0 in his last four roadies, but just 1-4 in his last five against the A.L. West.
Millwood has been magnificent at home, going 6-1 with a 2.17 ERA in the hitter-friendly Ballpark. Friday, he held the Padres to two runs on four hits in six innings of a 12-2 Rangers’ romp, the seventh straight game he’s allowed three runs or less. Texas, which has won four of Millwood’s last five outings, beat the Angels 10-8 on May 15 when the veteran hurler held them to two runs in six innings. With Millwood on the bump, the Rangers are on runs of 5-1 as a home chalk and 19-7 at home overall, but they are just 1-5 when he pitches the third game of a series and 2-6 when he goes on Wednesday.
With Weaver pitching, the Angels are on “under” streaks of 7-2-1 overall, 4-1-1 against teams with winning records and 5-0 in the third game of a series. With Millwood throwing, Texas is on “under” runs of 20-6-2 overall, 8-2 as a favorite, 11-2-1 at home and 6-0-1 in the third game of a series.
As a team, Los Angeles is on “over” runs that include 7-2 against right-handed starters and 15-7-1 on Wednesdays. Meanwhile it’s been all “under” streaks for the Rangers lately, including 44-18-1 overall, 16-6 as a favorite, 21-6-1 at home, 6-2 against A.L. West rivals and 22-9-1 against a right-handed starter. Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 5-2 in the last six clashes in Texas and 6-0-1 when Weaver takes the hill against the Rangers.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
GAMETIMEPICKS.COM
Baseball Today
San Francisco at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EDT). Matt Cain looks for his 10th win as the Giants play the third game of a four-game set with the Cardinals. Cain (9-2) lost for the first time since May 2 in his last start. He beat the Cardinals 4-2 on May 29.
STARS
Tuesday
-Albert Pujols, Cardinals, went deep twice in St. Louis' 6-3 loss to the San Francisco Giants and leads the majors with 30 homers and 77 RBIs.
-Justin Morneau, Twins, homered for the third straight game, helping Minnesota win 2-1 at Kansas City.
-Ryan Braun, Brewers, hit a three-run double and finished with four RBIs as Milwaukee won 6-3 to extend the New York Mets' skid to a season-high five games.
-Dan Haren, Diamondbacks, pitched seven solid innings and hit his first career homer to lead Arizona to a 6-2 victory at Cincinnati.
-Jason Marquis, Rockies, pitched a two-hitter to become the first 10-game winner in the National League, leading Colorado to a 3-0 win at the Los Angeles Dodgers.
-Martin Prado, Braves, had a career-best four hits and four RBIs, including the winning single in the 10th inning of Atlanta's 5-4 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies.
-B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford and Willy Aybar, Rays, homered to help Tampa Bay beat the Toronto Blue Jays 4-1 for its seventh consecutive win.
-Freddy Sanchez, Pirates, had three hits, drove in two runs and scored from second on a ball that bounded only a few feet from home plate in the fourth inning, leading Pittsburgh to a 3-0 win over the Chicago Cubs.
-Marlon Byrd, Rangers, homered twice and had five RBIs to lead Texas to a 9-5 win over the Los Angeles Angels.
-Placido Polanco, Tigers, homered and drove in three runs to lead Detroit to a 5-3 win at Oakland.
WHAT A RALLY
Nick Markakis hit a two-run double off Boston closer Jonathan Papelbon to complete the biggest comeback in Baltimore Orioles history, an 11-10 win Tuesday night. Baltimore trailed 10-1 before scoring five runs in the seventh inning and five more in the eighth. Boston had defeated the Orioles eight straight times, including five this season. Previously, the biggest comeback in Orioles history was Sept. 2, 1956, when Baltimore rallied from an eight-run deficit at Boston.
KING ALBERT
Albert Pujols homered twice in the St. Louis Cardinals' 6-3 loss to the San Francisco Giants. Pujols leads the major leagues with 30 homers and 77 RBIs after his third multihomer game in the last 10 games, his seventh this season and the 30th of his career. His 35 RBIs in June are a career best for any month and his 14 homers in the month matched his career best in April 2006. The last player in the majors to hit 30 before the All-Star break was the Yankees' Alex Rodriguez in 2007.
FIRST AND LAST
In a sight rarely seen in baseball, an active player threw out the ceremonial first ball before the New York Yankees' 8-5 victory over the Seattle Mariners. Mariano Rivera was honored for earning his 500th career save Sunday, and his teammates applauded while the Mariners came to the top step of the dugout to pay their respects. Rivera also pitched a perfect ninth for his 19th save in 20 chances.
NICK OF TIME
Hanley Ramirez homered and drove in four runs, and the Florida Marlins erased a four-run deficit to beat the Washington Nationals 7-5 in a game that was called in the seventh inning because of rain. Ramirez's two-run single put the Marlins ahead 6-5. Jorge Cantu followed with an RBI single moments before play was stopped, and Washington never got another chance to bat.
A ROUGH GO
Indians ace Cliff Lee allowed seven runs and 11 hits in three-plus innings as Cleveland lost 11-4 to the Chicago White Sox in a game called in the seventh inning due to rain. Lee had pitched at least five innings in 47 consecutive starts. His 47-game streak was the longest in the majors and the most since Hall of Famer Gaylord Perry went 71 straight in the 1970s.
WORTH NOTING
Giants left-hander Randy Johnson earned career win No. 303 and evened his record at 7-7 against the Cardinals with his first victory over St. Louis since June 11, 2005, leaving him with a losing mark against only three teams - the Mets (6-7), the Yankees (6-8) and the Rays (3-5). ... The Atlanta Braves beat Philadelphia 5-4 for their first home win over the Phillies since 2007.
BUSY DAY
The Pirates sent starting left fielder Nyjer Morgan to the Nationals in a four-player deal involving outfielder Lastings Milledge and also shipped backup Eric Hinske to the Yankees. The Pirates acquired Milledge and reliever Joel Hanrahan from Washington for Morgan and reliever Sean Burnett, a former first-round draft pick. Hinske, the 2002 AL Rookie of the Year, went to the Yankees for minor league right-hander Casey Erickson and outfielder Eric Fryer. The Yankees also get about $400,000 to help pay the remainder of Hinske's $1.5 million salary.
SLUMPING
Philadelphia shortstop Jimmy Rollins was 0 for 5 in his return after being held out four straight games. Rollins, who has a career .274 batting average, has no hits in his last 24 at-bats and is hitting only .207. ... The New York Mets held a closed-door meeting that lasted almost 30 minutes after their season-worst fifth consecutive loss. ... The Oakland Athletics fell 5-3 to the Detroit Tigers and have lost six of seven. ... Cleveland has lost 12 of 14.
AILING
Adrian Gonzalez left the San Diego Padres' 4-3 victory over the Houston Astros in the fourth inning with a strained right knee. ... Mark DeRosa injured his left wrist while swinging during the St. Louis Cardinals' 6-3 loss to the San Francisco Giants. DeRosa, hitless in nine at-bats since being acquired from the Indians in a trade, said he expected to have tests done on his wrist Wednesday. ... Red Sox third baseman Mike Lowell was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a strained right hip.
SPEAKING
"No one would have ever dreamed it would play out the way it did. It's one of those games when you shake your head and can't believe what you just saw.'' - Boston Red Sox right-hander John Smoltz after the Baltimore Orioles rallied from a nine-run deficit to win 11-10 at Camden Yards.