MLB News and Notes Wednesday 7/28

MLB RoundUp For 7/28
By Dane Bebe

National League

Cubs (-145) @ Astros with a total of 8
Randy Wells has been like butter lately...on a roll (rim-shot, thank you very much). He hasn't allowed a run in each of his most recent 2 starts, and has posted 5 consecutive quality starts, most of which have been well above the minimum criteria for "quality." Bud Norris has been a total turd, once again disappointing the Astros with his Major League flops. The problem here is that Wells' only start against the Astros this year was a dud, so we're now forced to weigh his recent run of success against his poor 2010 numbers versus this opponent. Generally, in those cases, I put more weight on the recent success. He's a good pitcher that had a slow spell in the middle of the season, but he's 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA overall against Houston. The Cubs are also the hottest hitting team in baseball, batting nearly .320 as a team since the Break.

Reds (-134) @ Brewers with a total of 8.5
Seriously, how is this Narveson kid still in the rotation? Is Milwaukee's farm system that devoid of pitchers? Can they really not move any middle relievers into a spot-starting role? Maybe his upside is better than I've seen, but Narveson is usually pretty good for 5 innings of 4-run baseball, and if ever we're looking at a game where the Reds bats will perk up for 9 innings, this would seem to be that one. A pretty strong line for the youngster, Travis Wood, but I suppose he's semi-earned it, posting a 2.76 ERA in his first 5 starts. His control has been excellent, and while the strikeouts will probably back off as teams get a better scouting report, he's done more than enough to get a win, and his team hasn't helped him out. Tough to even consider backing the Brewers in this one, but because of the weirdness of getaway games, might be almost as tough to put any money on it.

Braves (-144) @ Nationals with a total of 7.5
Hudson is 9-1 with a 2.47 ERA against the Nats. Livan Hernandez is 6-13 with a 5.39 ERA against the Braves, but the current Braves haven't done a whole lot against him. Livan went 5.1 innings to these cats, and gave up 2 runs (1 earned) in a Washington win. Hudson has faced Washington twice this year, and has allowed just 2 earned runs in 14 innings. You can see why the total is pretty darn low, then. I must say, I'm a little concerned about the Braves recent play on the road. The Nationals are surprisingly competent at home, and if indeed this one is going to come down to the wire, you have to think the home team has a shot. Not sure I have the gusto to lay it on the line, but Hudson most likely can't do it, himself (he's gone 8 innings a few times this year, but no complete games), so that does give the Nats a little hope.

D'backs @ Phillies (-270) with a total of 8
Out of price, out of mind.

Marlins @ Giants (-144) with a total of 8
This line is a bit lower than I expected, but it seems to show a rapidly declining faith in Jonathan Sanchez. I suppose his 0-1, 7.36 career mark against Florida isn't doing much to dispel that notion. That, of course, is in very limited action, so I'm not sure we can derive too much from it. More importantly, Sanchez's natural inconsistency is on full display, of late, which makes him awfully tough to back or fade, and makes this game a difficult one to nail down. Alex Sanabia, on the other side, has had about the shortest leash of any pitcher on the planet, though the Marlins have done a nice job of getting him out of games before the ceiling caves in. His short leash, though, means a ton of work for the pen, and that's scary. In fact, the pens for both teams should be game for a workout.

Cardinals @ Mets (-119) with a total of 6.5
Rematch alert! Yeah, caught me by surprise, too. These two faced off back in mid-April in a game the Mets won, 2-1. Heck of a pitchers' duel, though. Garcia went 7 innings and gave up just 1 hit. Santana went 7 frames, as well, allowing 4 hits and striking out 9. The game was decided by the pens. As far as recent work goes, Garcia is coming off a nice bounceback start, shutting down the Phillies with 7 innings of 1-run ball - this, coming after a rather poor start against the Dodgers. Santana, meanwhile, has been so hot (typical of him in the 2nd half) that even the ice cold Mets have had no choice but to win a few of his starts. Santana has given up just 3 runs in the entire month of July, spanning 38 innings. Tough to go against an arm doing that kind of damage, even with the way New York's been hitting.

Pirates @ Rockies (-229) with a total of 9
Out of price, out of mind. The only way I'd even remotely look is the Over, but Cook's actually been alright at home.

Dodgers @ Padres (-124) with a total of 6.5
This is another big game out West, and I happen to think the Padres would probably prefer to have almost anyone else on the hill. Just my humble opinion, but Richard has been showing one of the most pronounced downward progressions of anyone on the staff. He cruised through late June, but has had something of a late June and July-long swoon. Richard gave up at least 5 earned runs in 3 of his 4 starts this month, and allowed 3 earned runs in the other. Opponents batting average is up significantly, and his last 5 straight starts have gone Over the total. So, he's getting some run support, and that might very well continue. Kuroda is 4-2 against San Diego, but has a 4.91 ERA against them. These pitchers have not seen the other team this year, but going on recent trends, Kuroda's been the better pitcher, so make of that what you will.

American League

Twins (-135) @ Royals with a total of 9.5
This game, I will admit, has me wringing my hands, a little, and I'm leaning strongly to the PASS. Duensing was an extremely reliable starter for Minnesota last year, and pitched well in his only start this season but lost a tough one to the Orioles. He's 2-0 against the Royals, but has an ERA of 4.85, so a little shaky, there. Bannister, on the other side, has seen his ERA balloon to 5.73, but he's 4-4 with a 4.09 ERA against Minnesota, and beat them with 6.1 innings of 2-run ball back in April. He's been terrible this month, though, and has been pretty darn bad, basically, since the end of May. I'd look at the Over if the total weren't so high, already.

Red Sox (-115) @ Angels with a total of 9
I find it hard to swallow that Beckett will roar back in each of his first 2 starts off the DL. Generally, you see a guy get up for that first start and power ahead with adrenaline and anticipation, and then there's a letdown. Maybe not in his very next start, but generally within a start or two, later. I suppose we just have to wonder if Beckett will have one, or if he's so fully healthy now that he'll just surge ahead. I happen to think that, given the success of 3-4 of the Angels regulars, Beckett might be in for a tougher start, though probably not a bad one. Pineiro, meanwhile, is sort of the Angels stopper this year, and though his career mark against the Red Sox isn't too impressive, he went 6 innings of 2-run ball against them, this year, and Boston's hitting worse now than they were, then. I wish the Angels weren't slumping so hard, though.

Yankees (-150) @ Indians with a total of 9
The first thing that jumps out is that this line is strikingly low, and I have to wonder if that's because of Burnett being so erratic, Carmona's decent year, the Indians' run of marginal success after the Break, or something we don't know. Honestly, Burnett always scares me, but he's been good since Eiland returned to the club. And aside from a start where he had some cuts on his pitching hand and couldn't grip a curveball, he appears to be back where he was in the early parts of the year. Carmona's having a nice season, but the Yanks have always been able to score some runs off of him, and while this line looks like a "trap", I think it's just a little on the low side, and believe it or not, I like the Yankees over the Indians, even at this price. Yikes, right?

Orioles @ Blue Jays with a total of N/A
No line? This one can wait until tomorrow.

Tigers @ Rays (-230) with a total of 8.5
Out of price, out of mind. This could be a beating. Hell, it could be all kinds of things.

Athletics @ Rangers (-151) with a total of 8.5
These late American League match-ups are kind of upsetting me. This line is a little lower than what I would have expected, but at the same time, it's very difficult to tell if there's anything in that line. I happen to think that there isn't. Cahill and Lewis both have strong numbers against the other club, including 2 decent starts against the other, this year. I'd argue that Cahill's success gives him some confidence, but not sure how much I can trust Oakland on the road. Cahill did beat the Rangers in his two efforts, and that has to make you wonder...

Mariners @ White Sox (-163) with a total of 8
The southpaw square-off to end the evening. Vargas is 0-0 with a 2.45 ERA against the White Sox, thanks to a solid effort against them this year, and Buerhle is 7-4 with a 3.68 ERA against the Mariners, though he has not seen the punchless bunch this season. Buerhle has been solid in July, and that explains the rather pricey line on this one. I know Vargas pitched well against the White Sox, but the Mariners are just unbelievably bad on the road. I foolishly backed them earlier this series, thinking King Felix would get it done, and I hate to say it, but in some cases it's just that simple - if Felix can't do it, Vargas probably can't either, and the Sox are just far, far superior. I wish I could complicate things and advise a play on the dog, but I just can't, in good conscience.

Tips and Trends

Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers

Athletics: Oakland looks to be the only team capable of making a run at the Rangers in the AL West, as the A's have won 8 of their last 10 games. Oakland is quite similar to the Rangers in that they have such a solid, young pitching staff. The biggest weakness of the Athletics is their inconsistent offense. Oakland is 50-48 SU this season, including 20-26 SU on the road. The Athletics are +3.05 and -3.05 units both SU and on the RL respectively this year. P Trevor Cahill will make the crucial road start tonight, as he is 9-4 with an ERA of 3.15 and a WHIP of 1.04 this year. The Athletics are 4-0 in their last 4 road games. Oakland is 4-0 in their last 4 games against a right-handed starter. The Athletics are 14-40 in their last 54 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Oakland is 6-0 in Cahill's last 6 road starts overall. The Athletics are 5-1 in Cahill's last 6 road starts against a team with a winning record. Oakland is 13-3 in Cahill's last 16 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Athletics are 4-1 in Cahill's last 5 starts against the American League West. Oakland is 12-4 in Cahill's last 16 starts against a team with a winning record.

Athletics are 9-2 last 11 games on grass.
Over is 4-1 last 5 games against a team with a winning record.

Key Injuries - CF Rajai Davis (hamstring) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 3

Rangers (-152, O/U 8.5): Texas is running away with the American League West division, as they have a commanding 7.5 game lead. That 7.5 game lead just happens to be the biggest division lead in baseball. Texas is 58-41 SU this season, including 34-20 SU at home. The Rangers are +3.75 and -6.34 units both SU and on the RL overall this year. Texas continues to dominate opponents with their pitching staff, as only 2 opponents have scored more than 4 runs in their past 10 games. P Colby Lewis will take the mound tonight, as he is 9-6 with an ERA of 3.52 and a WHIP of 1.14 this season. The Rangers are 6-1 in their last 7 Wednesday games. Texas is 4-1 in their last 5 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Rangers are 20-6 in their last 26 games during game 2 of a series. The Rangers are 11-3 in Lewis' last 14 home starts. Texas is 6-2 in Lewis' last 8 home starts against a team with a winning record. The Rangers are 12-4 in Lewis' last 16 starts against the American League West. Texas is 1-5 in Lewis' last 6 starts against a team with a winning record.

Rangers are 11-4 last 15 games against the American League West.
The Under is 12-2-2 in their last 16 games against a team with a winning record.

Key Injuries - C Matt Treanor (knee) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres

Dodgers: Los Angeles is in a critical part of their season, where they face the cream of the crop in the National League West over the next week. The Dodgers have been dominant against NL West foes this year, going 24-8 SU. Los Angeles is 53-46 SU this year, including 21-25 SU away from home. The Dodgers are -1.49 and -8.58 units both SU and on the RL overall this season. P Hiroki Kuroda will make the road start tonight, as he is 8-8 with an ERA of 3.48 and a WHIP of 1.30 overall this season. The Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record. The Dodgers are 6-2 in their last 8 Wednesday games overall. Los Angeles is 23-11 in their last 34 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Los Angeles is 4-1 in Kuroda's last 5 starts during game 2 of a series. The Dodgers are 18-6 in Kuroda's last 24 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Dodgers are 1-4 in Kuroda's last 5 road starts against a team with a winning record.

Dodgers are 15-7 last 22 games during game 2 of a series.
Under is 4-1 last 5 games against a team with a winning record.

Key Injuries - LF Manny Ramirez (calf) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 3

Padres (-117, O/U 6.5): San Diego has the best record in the National League at 58-39 SU. The Padres are also starting to distance themselves from the rest of the National League West, as only 1 team is within 6 games of them. San Diego is +23.04 and +14.18 units both SU and on the RL this season. P Clayton Richard will make the home start tonight, as he is 7-5 with an ERA of 3.57 and a WHIP of 1.38 this season. The Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 home games against a right-handed starter. San Diego is 4-0 in their last 4 games against the National League West. The Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 home games overall. The Padres are 7-0 in Richard's last 7 home starts against a team with a winning record. San Diego is 5-0 in Richard's last 5 starts against the National League West. The Padres are 9-2 in Richard's last 11 starts against a team with a winning record. The Padres are 1-5 in Richard's last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.

Padres are 3-7 last 10 games against a team with a winning record.
Over is 9-3 last 12 home games against a team with a losing road record.

Key Injuries - 2B David Eckstein (calf) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)

Diamond Trends - Wednesday
By Vince Akins

Red Sox at Angels – The Red Sox are 0-6 since July 21, 2009 when Josh Beckett starts after the team won his last two starts for a net profit of $755 when playing against. The Angels are 8-0 since May 10, 2010 when Joel Pineiro starts at home for a net profit of $835.

Cubs at Astros – The Cubs are 9-0 since June 07, 2009 when Randy Wells starts as a favorite after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $900 The Cubs are 7-0 since May 12, 2010 when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $725.

Orioles at Blue Jays – The Orioles are 0-10 since April 17, 2010 on the road after a loss in which they drew 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The Orioles are 0-6 since July 25, 2009 when Jeremy Guthrie starts on the road vs. a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $600 when playing against.

Marlins at Giants – The Giants are 6-0 since July 30, 2009 when Jonathan Sanchez starts after walking at least 4 on the road for a net profit of $660

Yankees at Indians – The Yankees are 9-0 since June 24, 2009 after a loss in which they were shut out in the first 6 innings and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $915. The Yankees are 0-6 since April 25, 2009 when A.J. Burnett starts on the road after his team scored a total of seven or more runs in his last start for a net profit of $675 when playing against.

Cardinals at Mets – The Mets are 8-0 since April 20, 2010 at home within 20 cents of pickem after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $835.

Braves at Nationals – The Braves are 6-0 since September 12, 2009 when Tim Hudson starts on the road after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start for a net profit of $600. The Nationals are 0-8 since April 20, 2010 as a dog after a win in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Nationals are 5-0 since April 17, 2010 when Livan Hernandez starts at home after his team won the last time he started vs. this opponent for a net profit of $565.

Dodgers at Padres – The Dodgers are 12-0 since July 03, 2009 when Hiroki Kuroda starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $1200.

Diamondbacks at Phillies – The Phillies are 0-5 since May 12, 2010 when Roy Halladay starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs at home for a net profit of $755 when playing against.

Athletics at Rangers – The Athletics are 6-0 since August 27, 2009 when Trevor Cahill starts on the road after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $755. The Rangers are 11-0 since July 31, 2009 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1100.

Tigers at Rays – The Rays are 8-0 since August 18, 2009 as a 200+ favorite after a win in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $800.

Pirates at Rockies – The Pirates are 0-8 since June 12, 2009 as a dog after a win in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Pirates are 0-6 since September 12, 2009 when Ross Ohlendorf starts as a road dog after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $600 when playing against.

Twins at Royals – The Twins are 8-0 since August 21, 2009 as a road favorite when they blew a lead in their starter's last start and lost for a net profit of $800.

Mariners at White Sox – The Mariners are 0-11 since May 13, 2010 after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1140 when playing against. The White Sox are 7-0 since June 27, 2009 when Mark Buehrle starts at home after a quality start and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $720.