MLB News and Notes Wednesday 7/7

MLB RoundUp For 7/7
By Dan Bebe

National League

Braves @ Phillies (-120) with a total of 8.5
No sense getting too involved in player numbers when there's a decent history from just this season. Moyer has faced the Braves twice, and he's been tremendous, if perhaps a little lucky in one of the two starts. Back in mid-April, Moyer allowed 2 unearned runs in 6 innings of work in an 8-3 Phillies win, and in early May he pitched a complete game shutout against Atlanta. Of course, that was, for the most part, before the Braves kicked things into high gear. Moyer is 5-5 with a 4.26 ERA lifetime against Atlanta, and 15 innings without an earned run this year has certainly brought that number down. He's also on a string of 4 straight starts of 2 runs or less and 6 or more innings. Medlen is an interesting bird. He made his first start of the year against the Phils, and allowed a run in 4.1 innings. However, he did allow 9 hits and escaped messes the whole way through. He has a 5.11 ERA against Philadelphia, and while he's on a run of 2 straight strong starts, his work against the Phillies makes me nervous. Leans: Phillies

Padres (-120) @ Nationals with a total of 8
Josh Willingham is 3-for-6 off Garland.
Not a great deal of historical data here, in stark contrast to Moyer in the game above. Martin is 0-2 against the Padres with a 1.93 ERA, so he's been unlucky. Garland is 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA against the Nationals, so slightly better than average against this particular opponent. The current Nats roster doesn't seem to see Garland all that well, and he did go 7 innings of 2-run ball against them back in late May in a 3-2 Padres win. Martin gave up 4 runs, but only 1 of them was earned, in a 4-2 loss to San Diego in that same series. So Martin got unlucky, Garland got a narrow win in a different game, and Garland's been trending down, down, down, while Martin just isn't that great. Leans: Nationals

Reds @ Mets (-118) with a total of 8.5
Jason Bay is 6-for-19 off Arroyo since '05.
This will be the 2nd start for each of these guys against the other team, and the results of start 1 were quite similar. Arroyo went 7 innings of 4-run ball in a 5-4 loss to the Mets back on May 4, and Jon Niese went 6 innings of 4-run ball in 5-4 loss the very next night. So, what do we know about these pitchers? Arroyo remains relatively consistent, but he happens to be the pitch-to-contact sort of guy that the Mets can get aggressive with, at home. He has nice career numbers against New York, at 6-2 with a 3.54 ERA, and Cincinnati can definitely hit, so the question is whether Niese has a brilliant start, or a marginal one. He's coming off 2 strong starts, and the Mets have won his last 6 straight outings. Tough to back Cincy here, but not all that easy to back the Mets, either. Leans: Mets

Pirates @ Astros (-125) with a total of 9
Ronny Cedeno is 4-for-11 off Moehler;
Ryan Church is 5-for-15 off Moehler.
Not surprisingly, Brian Moehler is 5-7 with a 6.15 ERA against the Pirates, but he seems to have awful numbers against everyone. The question is what we'll get tonight, and if recent starts are any indicator, Moehler could pitch relatively well. Since his first start, a complete disaster in late May, Moehler has been fairly serviceable. He's not going deep in games, but the Pirates aren't exactly an offensive juggernaut. McCutchen flat-out stinks, and until I see him make a quality start, I'm not sure I can back him. Leans: Astros

Giants (-130) @ Brewers with a total of 7.5
Ryan Braun is 6-for-13 with 2 HR and 7 RBI off Lincecum.
Tim Lincecum is 1-2 with a 5.67 ERA against the Brewers, and Ryan Braun appears to be the reason why. This is just not the foe he likes to face. He hasn't seen Milwaukee this year, but Timmy is on a streak of 2 straight subpar outings, and appears to be trending down. It's going to take some local beat-writer reading to get a good perspective on this game, since this is about as cheap as we'll ever see Lincecum in such a winnable game. His opponent, Chris Narveson, is not very good. Somehow, we managed to fade Narveson in the game where he turned into Cy Young, but besides that one sparkling effort against the Mariners, he's been pretty bad, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Giants get to him for a few runs. The square side might actually be better in this one, despite Timmy's struggles. Leans: Giants

Cardinals (-120) @ Rockies with a total of 9
I honestly have no clue how Aaron Cook's lifetime mark against the Cards is 1-4 with a 5.07 ERA. Up and down that Cardinals lineup, no one hits Cook hard. Felipe Lopez is 1-for-11, Holliday is 1-for-6, Schumaker is 1-for-10, and Randy Winn is batting .172 off Cook since '05, yet somehow, he's struggled against them. Cook is, however on a little run of 3 straight quality starts, while Garcia is on a run of getting hit on the road, and not at home, at least over the last month or so. This is also Garcia's first trip to Coors, which can be a bit unnerving. I'm surprised at this opening line, since I think this is a good deal on a Rockies team that finds a way to win at home. Leans: Rockies

Cubs (-120) @ D'backs with a total of 9
Stephen Drew was 3-for-7 off Dempster before 2010.
If Drew is even still a D'back tomorrow, I suppose. Dempster is 1-5 with a 6.37 ERA lifetime against Arizona, so not a team that he enjoys facing, though the current lineup doesn't seem to hit him all that hard. Edwin Jackson had himself an ugly outing against Chicago when he was going through a bit of a pitching slump in early May, but I have to believe he's rebounded from that, and will likely pitch better in this one. I'm a little torn, here, since history would suggest that Dempster just won't perform that well in Arizona, but at the same time, I have nothing that really tells me Jackson is going to pitch much better. Leans: D'backs, Over

Marlins (-130) @ Dodgers with a total of 7
Jorge Cantu was 3-for-8 with a HR off Kuroda before 2010;
Cody Ross was 3-for-9 with a HR and 3 RBI off Kuroda before '10;
Andre Ethier was 5-for-10 with 3 RBI off Johnson before this year.
Interestingly, Josh Johnson is 2-1 against LA, but sports a 6.23 ERA. He doesn't really like facing the Dodgers. In fact, LA scored 3 runs in 5 innings of Johnson earlier this year, but the Marlins squeaked that one out. Kuroda is coming off one of his worst starts as a Major Leaguer, just unable to get anything where he wanted it in Arizona, but brings a 1-0, 2.60 ERA mark against Florida into this one, including 8 innings of 1-unearned run baseball back in April. This looks like a pretty sweet deal on a good home team, but Johnson is on one of the sickest pitching rolls we've seen in a while. Leans: Dodgers

American League

Orioles @ Tigers (-260) with a total of 9.5
Magglio Ordonez is 3-for-4 off Bergesen.
You can make all the arguments you want for a home run line here, but I ain't buyin' them. Bergesen actually pitched well against the Tigers last year, and Scherzer hasn't seen the Orioles. Scherzer is rolling along these days, and we know the Tigers simply win at home, but this one, to me, could end up closer than people expect. Leans: None

Twins @ Blue Jays (-115) with a total of 9.5
Aaron Hill is 4-for-8 off Slowey;
Adam Lind is 5-for-8 off Slowey;
Lyle Overbay is 4-for-8 off Slowey with a HR and 4 RBI;
Vernon Wells is 3-for-8 off Slowey with a HR and 4 RBI.
Good thing we don't have any historical data on the Toronto side, since I was done typing this kid's name after just one try up above. Marc, with a "c", is a solid lefthanded sinkerballer that had a decent first stint in the Bigs last year, going 2-4 with a respectable 3.67 ERA in the AL East. He had nice strikeout numbers, could have improved on the walks, but that hard lefty delivery could be a bad sign for the Twins lineup. Slowey is 1-2 with a 6.08 ERA against Toronto, too. Uh oh. Leans: Blue Jays

Red Sox @ Rays (-180) with a total of 8.5
Kevin Youkilis is 4-for-6 off Price;
Evan Longoria is 5-for-9 off Wakefield.
I have no idea how this happened, but neither of these pitchers has faced the other team this year, despite the clubs playing quite a few games with one another, already. It's a scheduling head-scratcher, to be sure. Wakefield is a career 19-5 against the Rays with a 3.51 ERA, though a lot of that damage was done before Tampa got good, and since Tampa started hitting, Wakefield hasn't done quite as well. Price is just rumbling right along, and despite his 1-1, 4.76 mark against Boston, I believe he pitches well. This line is probably where it should be. Leans: None

Indians @ Rangers (-250) with a total of 9.5
Not a chance in hell I make a play on this one. Talbot can be brilliant for 5 innings and completely implode for 1 frame, or he might just get yanked after 5 with the lead. It's tough to say. He's never seen the Rangers. Colby Lewis hasn't pitched against the Indians since April, and went 5.1 innings in that one. There's just no reason to back this large of a favorite, and the Indians aren't giving me enough motivation to take a shot on a dog. Leans: None

Angels @ White Sox (-110) with a total of 9.5
Torii Hunter is 7-for-12 with 3 HR and 3 RBI off Garcia since '05;
Paul Konerko is 4-for-13 with a HR and 2 RBI off Saunders.
With the way these guys have been pitching, I'm stuck wondering if this line is a gift or if I might be missing something. Joe Saunders, 6-8 with a 4.59 ERA is roughly in a dead heat with the piping hot White Sox and one of their most consistent performers all year? Garcia is pretty easy to handicap this year - he's going to go 6-7 innings and allow 2-3 runs. Saunders is a little tougher. He's made 2 straight strong starts, but every time you think he's got it figured out, he craps the bed. He did pitch well against the White Sox earlier this year in a 3-2 win over John Danks, but the White Sox now are a heck of a lot tougher than the floundering Pale Hose of early May. Leans: White Sox

Yankees (-120) @ Athletics with a total of 8.5
Daric Barton is 3-for-7 with a HR and 3 RBI off Burnett;
Kurt Suzuki is 4-for-12 with 2 RBI off Burnett;
Ryan Sweeney is 3-for-10 with a HR and 2 RBI off Burnett.
Yep, all those good numbers against Burnett, and yet, I somehow still lean to the Yankees. I think Burnett's value has completely maxed out thanks to a miserable June, and a game where he actually pitched well against Toronto that his team found a way to lose. This line is not low because of some sort of trap; this line is low because no one has any faith in A.J. Burnett, and I happen to think it's time for him to start turning things around. Gio Gonzalez also happens to be on a bit of a roll, and we all know how tough he can be at home. This total might be too high, as well. Leans: Yankees, Under

Royals @ Mariners (-145) with a total of 7.5
Yuny Betancourt is 2-for-2 with a HR off Fister;
Russell Branyan is 3-for-7 with 3 RBI off Davies;
Franklin Gutierrez is 8-for-13 with 4 RBI off Davies.
Doug Fister still doesn't seem like he quite trusts his stuff since coming off the DL, posting 2 bad starts in Milwaukee and Detroit. Davies just stinks, but he does have a nice history against the Mariners, and is coming off a strong start in Anaheim, somehow. Davies is 3-1 with a 3.82 ERA against Kansas City, including 6 shutout innings against them back in April. The Mariners are not a good-hitting ballclub, so they can't really overcome any pitching mistakes, and I believe the Royals, who do a very nice job of going the other way and getting guys on base, have the formula to win in Safeco. Leans: Royals

Wednesday Tips
By Kevin Rogers

The Wednesday baseball card is a busy night slate highlighted by plenty of solid matchups. The White Sox and Angels continue their four-game set at U.S. Cellular Field, while the Giants try to knock off the Brewers once again in Milwaukee. We'll start in the Sunshine State with a pair of rivals that looking to one-up each other in the AL East.

Red Sox at Rays - 7:10 PM EST

Tampa Bay pulled off a massive rally to stun Boston on Monday night, 6-5, coming back from a 5-1 deficit. It was only the second time in 10 meetings this season that the home team has won, while the Sox suffered their first loss at Tropicana Field in four tries.

All-Star David Price (11-4, 2.42 ERA) looks to bounce back from a loss in his last start, allowing four hits and two earned runs in eight innings of a 2-1 setback at Minnesota. Run support is key for the southpaw, as the Rays are 0-5 when they score less than three runs for Price, but 11-0 when they plate at least four runs. This doesn't help totals players, with the 'unders' and 'overs' fluctuating all season for Price, even though the Rays have hit three straight 'unders' for the lefty. Price hasn't faced the Red Sox this season, as the Rays split his two starts against Boston in 2009.

Tim Wakefield (3-6, 4.96 ERA) takes the ball for the Sox, looking to capitalize off a victory in his last start against the Orioles. Wakefield scattered seven hits and two earned runs in eight innings, the third straight quality start for the knuckleballer. Unfortunately, Wakefield's numbers against Tampa Bay have been dreadful, giving up 16 earned runs in his last three outings versus the Rays (1-2).

The 'over' has profited recently for the Rays, hitting in six of the last seven games, with Tampa Bay tallying at least five runs six times in this span. Following the 'over' in Monday's loss, the 'over' has hit in four of the previous six on the road for the Sox.

Giants at Brewers - 8:10 PM EST

San Francisco drew first blood in this four-game set with a 6-1 victory on Monday, scoring six late runs for just their second win in the last ten games. Milwaukee's offense has dried up over the last two days, scoring only two runs combined after putting up 12 runs on Saturday at St. Louis.

Reigning Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum (8-4, 3.28 ERA) has hit the skids over his previous two starts, allowing eight earned runs in losses to the Red Sox and Rockies. Lincecum went 4-0 in June, but faced weak offenses in Baltimore, Oakland, Houston, and Pittsburgh. The diminutive ace struggled against the Brewers on Opening Day last season, allowing four hits and three earned runs in three innings, but got off the hook as San Francisco pulled out a 10-6 win.

Chris Narveson (7-5, 5.29 ERA) has seen his most success at Miller Park, winning each of his last three starts at home against the Rangers, Twins, and Mariners. Narveson was on the wrong end of a 5-0 loss at St. Louis his last time out, giving up seven hits and four earned runs in five innings, the fourth straight road start in which the southpaw hasn't picked up a win.

The Giants are just 1-4 the previous five games as a road favorite, while going 5-2 to the 'over' in their last seven road games overall. Milwaukee is 2-4 the last six at home, while winning each of its last three as a home underdog.

Angels at White Sox - 8:10 PM EST

Chicago continues its push towards the top of the AL Central, sitting one game behind Detroit heading into Tuesday's action. The Sox blew out the Angels in the opener of a four-game set at U.S. Cellular Field, dropping Los Angeles to 3 ½ games behind Texas in the AL West race.

Freddy Garcia (8-3, 4.65 ERA) has turned into Chicago's most profitable pitcher, as the Sox have won his last seven starts. Garcia's numbers at home (5-2) is nearly similar to the road (6-2), which has made the veteran a solid play regardless of the locale. The righty hasn't faced the Angels since 2006, as the Sox have won his last six starts in this series.

The inconsistent Joe Saunders (6-8, 4.59 ERA) takes the mound for the Halos, going for his second win since June 10. The southpaw has delivered consecutive quality starts after allowing 11 earned runs in losses to the Brewers and Cubs. Saunders has performed well on the road with a mark and ERA of 3.32 on the highway, while winning earlier this season on the South Side by scattering four hits and one run in a 3-2 victory.

The Sox have won eight of their previous nine games at U.S. Cellular Field, while four of their last six at home have finished 'under' the total. The Angels are 13-6 the last 19 on the road, but have dropped three straight on the highway.

Cardinals at Rockies - 8:40 PM EST

St. Louis looks to make up ground in the NL Central on Cincinnati, as the Redbirds continue their series at Coors Field against the Rockies. Colorado is playing well of late, winning six of eight games, including a monumental rally in last night's 12-9 victory. The Cards try to find consistency as Tony LaRussa's squad has split their last ten games, while playing under .500 teams like the Royals, Diamondbacks, and Brewers.

Rookie Jaime Garcia (8-4, 2.10 ERA) has shined as the third ace of this Cardinals' staff, coming off a dominating seven-inning scoreless effort over Milwaukee. Unfortunately, the Cards have alternated wins and losses in each of his last eight starts. Garcia has turned into nearly an automatic 'under' play, cashing it in 13 of 16 outings, including seven of eight on the road.

Aaron Cook (3-5, 4.63 ERA) is the ultimate home-road dichotomy, with the Rockies winning five of his seven starts at Coors Field. Cook shut down the Giants his last time out, putting together a quality start in each of his previous three trips to the mound. The Rockies were 0-6 in Cook's six career starts against the Cardinals prior to last season, but the righty bounced back with two victories over St. Louis in 2009.

Colorado grabbed six of seven meetings last season, while the Rockies own an 18-9 mark in Game 2's this season. The Cardinals have scored five runs or more in six of the last eight games, as St. Louis is 4-2 in those contests.

vegasinsider.com

Diamond Trends - Wednesday
By Vince Akins

Pirates at Astros – The Astros are 0-5 since July 07, 2009 when Brian Moehler starts after the team won his last two starts for a net profit of $545 when playing against.

Yankees at Athletics – The Yankees are 9-0 since June 08, 2009 after a win in which they had 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $910. The Yankees are 0-6 since May 09, 2010 when A.J. Burnett starts after the team won their last two games for a net profit of $830 when playing against. The Athletics are 0-6 since July 30, 2009 when Gio Gonzalez starts after a quality start and ts:site=away and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $600 when playing against.

Twins at Blue Jays – The Twins are 9-0 since April 25, 2009 when Kevin Slowey starts vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $945. The Twins are 0-9 since May 15, 2009 within 20 cents of pick ‘em after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $920 when playing against. The Twins are 7-0 since May 14, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem after allowing 6+ runs win for a net profit of $755. The Blue Jays are 0-9 since September 01, 2009 as a dog after a loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base as a dog for a net profit of $900 when playing against.

Giants at Brewers – The Giants are 8-0 since May 26, 2009 when Tim Lincecum starts as a favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches and they lost in his previous start for a net profit of $800. The Giants are 0-6 since April 18, 2009 when Tim Lincecum starts after he had a WHIP of at least 2 his last start and they lost in his previous start for a net profit of $855 when playing against.

Cubs at Diamondbacks – The Cubs are 0-5 since June 06, 2009 when Ryan Dempster starts vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $560 when playing against. The Diamondbacks are 5-0 since May 17, 2010 when Edwin Jackson starts vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $660.

Marlins at Dodgers – The Marlins are 6-0 since August 26, 2009 when Josh Johnson starts after facing 25 or fewer hitters and they lost in his previous start for a net profit of $620. The Marlins are 5-0 since April 29, 2009 when Josh Johnson starts when he is off a start in which the bullpen allowed more runs that they did and lost for a net profit of $580.

Royals at Mariners – The Royals are 5-0 since August 11, 2009 when Kyle Davies starts on the road after his team won the last time he started vs. this opponent for a net profit of $740. The Mariners are 0-9 since May 06, 2010 after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $935 when playing against.

Reds at Mets – The Reds are 5-0 since September 30, 2009 when Bronson Arroyo starts within 20 cents of pick ‘em after a quality start and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $535. The Mets are 9-0 since April 20, 2010 at home within 20 cents of pick ‘em after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $955. The Mets are 8-0 since August 05, 2009 when Jonathon Niese starts at home vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $885.

Padres at Nationals – The Padres are 0-8 since June 13, 2009 as a dog after a loss in which they left 18+ men on base and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Nationals are 0-6 since May 29, 2010 when J.D. Martin starts for a net profit of $615 when playing against.

Braves at Phillies – The Braves are 6-0 since August 20, 2009 as a dog when they came back from a deficit to win in their starter's last start for a net profit of $740. The Braves are 6-0 since May 08, 2010 when Kris Medlen starts as a ‘dog vs. a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $696. The Phillies are 5-0 since June 11, 2009 when Jamie Moyer starts the last game of a three game series when they split the first two for a net profit of $590.

Indians at Rangers – The Indians are 6-0 since April 24, 2010 as a road dog after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $965. The Rangers are 10-0 since July 31, 2009 as a home favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000.

Red Sox at Rays – The Red Sox are 0-9 since August 06, 2009 as a road dog vs a team that has won at least their last three games for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Red Sox are 0-7 since August 05, 2009 on the road after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Rays are 0-5 since August 20, 2009 as a home favorite vs. a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $880 when playing against.

Cardinals at Rockies – The Cardinals are 8-0 since June 23, 2009 as a road favorite after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $800.

Orioles at Tigers – The Orioles are 0-7 since May 19, 2009 when Bradley Bergesen starts as a road dog after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Tigers are 11-0 since April 29, 2010 at home when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit for a net profit of $1155.

Angels at White Sox – The Angels are 0-6 since August 25, 2009 when they are off two losses in which they never led and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $760 when playing against.