Wednesday Wagers
By Judd Hall
We’re getting closer to finding out who are the playoff contenders and who have just been pretending for much of the summer in baseball. Wednesday’s slate offers up a few games that showcase some clubs that are either trying to stay relevant or preparing to make a run at the playoffs.
Let’s take a look a pair of clashes.
Astros at Marlins – 7:10 p.m. EDT
Around the end of July, I though the Astros might have a chance to make a serious run at the playoffs. They were only 1 ½ games out of first place in the National League Central. Houston has gone 5-11 since July 11, putting them about seven games out of Colorado for the Wild Card lead.
One of the problems Houston has had (trying hard not to make a pun here) is losing Lance Berkman with a strained left calf. That’s a loss of 18 home runs and 55 runs batted in from this season. It hasn’t hurt Carlos Lee at the plate, who is hitting .393 since Aug. 3. However, Lee has just four RBI in that stretch.
The ‘Stros will be sending Bud Norris (2-0, 1.69 ERA) out to the mound with hopes he can help turn things around. Norris has definitely done his part to help out by winning his last two starts, giving up just two earned runs in 13 innings pitched.
Florida is set to write its own finish now after completing a three-game sweep of the Phillies to sit just 3 ½ games behind them in the NL East now. The Marlins have to feel confident about their chances of staying hot with Ricky Nolasco (8-7, 4.86 ERA) getting the start. The Fish have won eight of Nolasco’s last 10 starts this season.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants has installed the Marlins as pretty heavy $1.65 home favorites (risk $165 to win $100) with a total of eight.
It’s hard to find a way that Florida will fail in this spot as they’re 15-6 in its last 21 games at Landshark Stadium. Doesn’t help the bettors on the Astros when you realize they’re 3-8 in their last 11 road tilts with the Fish.
When you look at the totals, the ‘over’ is something to consider. The ‘over’ is 8-1 in the last nine matches in Florida and 7-3 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings. Plus, the ‘over’ is a combined 77-67 this year in night games.
Tigers at Red Sox – 7:10 p.m. EDT
No team ever wants to lose, but this is a series that both sides REALLY don’t want to fall. The Red Sox may have won the opener of this showdown, but the thoughts of a four-game sweep at Yankee Stadium are still very fresh in their minds.
Boston got out of the gates early in this set with four runs in the first two innings of play on Monday night. All wasn’t perfect for the BoSox with them leaving 18 runners on base, five them in scoring position with two outs.
The Red Sox shouldn’t have to worry about that on Wednesday night with Josh Beckett (13-4, 3.12 ERA) getting the starting nod. Beckett has been one of the two starting pitchers that Terry Francona can expect solid numbers from; the other hurler being Jon Lester. The former Marlin has lasted at least seven innings in his last five starts, posting an earned run average of 1.66 in that stretch.
Detroit currently holds a three-game lead in the American League Central over the White Sox, but that can evaporate quickly. Jim Leyland will no doubt be chain smoking when Armando Galarraga (6-10, 5.23 ERA) takes to the mound. Galarraga gave up three earned runs in five innings in his last start on Aug. 7 versus the Twins. Not a great appearance, but still garnered him a win. The Tigers’ starter hasn’t been all that great away from Comerica Park, as evidenced by a 2-6 record and 5.97 ERA on the road.
Most betting shops are not giving the Motor City Kitties a shot in hell by making Boston a $2.40 home “chalk” with a total of nine.
The line makes perfect sense as Boston is 20-6 in the last 26 head-to-head meetings with the Tigers at Fenway Park.
The Red Sox are 16-8 when they face a right-handed pitcher at home in night games in 2009. Detroit, on the other hand, is 8-17 against right-handers in primetime road games this year.
Bettors have seen the ‘under’ go 7-2 in Beckett’s last nine starts this year. The ‘under’ is 8-2 in the 10 road games that Galarraga has started.
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NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia (62-48) at Chicago Cubs (58-53)
Pedro Martinez is scheduled to make his Phillies debut when he takes the mound at Wrigley Field and matches up against the Cubs’ Jeff Samardzija (1-1, 6.29 ERA), who will be making the first big-league start of his young career.
After getting swept at home by the Marlins over the weekend, Philadelphia bounced back Tuesday and gutted out a 4-3, 12-inning victory. Despite the win, the Phillies have still lost six of nine and eight of 12, going 2-4 on the road during this slump. Still, the defending world champs continue to sport baseball’s best road record (33-19) and they’re on a 36-16 roll against the N.L. Central, but they have dropped 11 of 15 on Wednesday.
The Cubs have now lost three in a row, five of six and seven of 11. Chicago is still 8-3 in its last 11at Wrigley Field, with all eight wins coming by multiple runs.
Philadelphia has won three of four against the Cubs this year and is 5-1 in the last six meetings (3-0 at Wrigley Field).
Martinez was signed by the Phillies last month and immediately placed on the disabled list with a shoulder injury. He went 1-1 with a 5.11 ERA in three minor-league rehab starts, including striking out 11 in six innings in Wednesday’s outing at Double-A Reading. Last year with the Mets, the veteran right-hander went 5-6 with a 5.61 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP in 20 starts, including 0-3 with a 7.77 ERA in four starts in September.
Martinez is 4-3 with a 4.12 ERA in 13 career appearances (eight starts) against the Cubs, including 2-2 with a 5.24 ERA in six games (three starts) at Wrigley Field. Coincidentally, his final start in 2008 came against Chicago in Shea Stadium, and he gave up five runs in six innings, getting a no-decision in the Mets’ 7-6 victory.
Samardzija last pitched on Friday at Colorado, when he gave up two runs on five hits in four innings of relief work, getting a no-decision in the Cubs’ 6-2 defeat. The former star wide receiver from Notre Dame is 2-1 with a 4.15 ERA and one save in 42 career major-league appearances, including 1-1 with a 7.36 ERA in three career appearances against Philadelphia, giving up three runs in 3 2/3 innings. This season at Wrigley Field, the right-hander is 0-1 with a 6.10 ERA in eight relief outings.
The under is 12-4-2 in the last 18 Phillies-Cubs clashes at Wrigley Field, and the under is on further runs of 7-2 for Philly on the road, 8-2 for Philly against right-handed starters, 14-5 for Philly on Wednesday and 10-2 for Chicago on Wednesday. Finally, the under was 3-1-1 in Martinez’s last four starts in 2008, though the lone “over” occurred in his final start of the year versus the Cubs.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Detroit (59-53) at Boston (64-48)
The Red Sox hand the ball to All-Star Josh Beckett (13-4, 3.12 ERA) as they continue their four-game Fenway Park series against the Tigers, who will counter with struggling right-hander Armando Galarraga (6-10, 5.23).
Boston snapped a six-game slide (all on the road) with Monday’s 6-5 victory over the Tigers, then came back on Tuesday and earned a 7-5 win a brawl-filled contest. The Sox are still just 9-14 in their last 23 contests (6-3 at home) and 3-12 in their last 15 against teams with a winning record. On the bright side, they’re on runs of 102-46 at Fenway and 42-15 versus the A.L. Central. Also, Boston has dominated the Tigers of late, winning all five meetings this season, six straight going back to last year and 10 of the last 12, scoring five runs or more in all 10 wins.
Detroit has followed up a three-game winning streak by losing three of its last four. Jim Leyland’s squad is on further downturns of 7-20 on the highway, 17-42 on the road against winning teams, 3-9 against the A.L. East and 1-9 on the road versus right-handed starters.
In addition to their recent success against the Tigers, the Red Sox are 37-15 in the last 52 series clashes overall and 21-6 in the last 27 meetings at Fenway Park.
Galarraga is 1-2 with a 7.64 ERA in his last three trips to the mound, the lone victory being a 10-8 home triumph over Minnesota on Friday, even though the right-hander gave up four runs (three earned) on eight hits and five walks in just five innings. The Tigers had lost five straight games behind Galarraga prior to Friday and they’re just 3-9 in his last 12 outings on the road, but they're 13-6 in his last 19 starts against teams with a winning record.
Galarraga has struggled this season both on the road (2-6, 5.97 ERA in 10 starts) and in night games (2-9, 5.25 in 15 games). The right-hander is also 0-1 with a 5.84 ERA in two starts against Boston (both in Detroit), the loss coming on June 3 when he gave up four runs (three earned) in seven innings, falling 10-5.
Beckett was virtually flawless on Friday at Yankee Stadium, tossing seven scoreless innings while giving up four hits and two walks with seven strikeouts. However, he didn’t get any offensive support and the Red Sox eventually lost 2-0 in 15 innings. Beckett has pitched exactly seven innings in three straight starts and he’s gone into the seventh inning in nine consecutive outings, giving up zero runs in five of those contests.
Beckett is a perfect 7-0 with a 2.58 ERA in 10 home starts, with Boston winning nine of those games. In fact, with Beckett on the hill, the BoSox are on surges of 7-2 overall, 5-0 at home, 14-3 versus the A.L. Central, 14-4 on grass and 6-2 on Wednesday. The Texas native matched up against Galarraga in a 10-5 win at Detroit on June 3, allowing three runs (none earned) on two hits in 7 2/3 innings, walking two and striking out nine. In his last two starts against the Tigers, Beckett is 2-0 with a 0.61 ERA and 17 strikeouts in 14 2/3 innings.
The under is 5-2 in Galarraga’s last seven starts overall, 8-2 in his last 10 on the road and 4-1 in his last five on Wednesday. Similarly, with Beckett pitching, Boston is on “under” streaks of 5-1 overall, 6-1 at home and 4-1 versus A.L. Central foes.
As a team, the Red Sox have topped the total in six straight home games, and the over is 22-8-1 in their last 31 on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Tigers are on “over” stretches of 6-0 overall, 5-1 on the road and 5-1 against the A.L. East, but the under is 12-4-1 in their last 17 against winning teams and 7-1 in their last eight on Wednesday. Finally, the under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 Boston-Detroit duels at Fenway Park, although the first two in this series have flown over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
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By SportsPic
The New York Yankees practically unbeatable at Yankee Stadium since the All-Star break going 14-2 stuffing +$944 into betting accounts have the best record in baseball. Doing it primarily with pitching the Yankee starters have a 2.05 SWR, 1.24 WHIP over the span while relievers have put up a 4.27 SWR, 1.03 WHIP allowing just 2.6 inherited and/or responsible batters to cross home plate. In the finale of this three game set A.J. Burnett (10-5, 3.67) gets to face his former club. Burnett handcuffing Red Sox in a 7 2/3 inning showing on Friday allowing just one hit while walking six, taking a no-decision in New York's 2-0 victory has faced Jays twice this season dropping the first north of the border grabbed the 'W' in the most recent meeting in New York. Meanwhile, Jays in also ran status in the A.L. East with their 54-58 (-$926) record including 23-32 (-$696) on the highway counter with Ricky Romero (10-5, 3.66). The young lefty sporting an 8-3 TSR last eleven on the bump is 1-0 career vs Yankees going a solid 6 1/3 of three run ball in a 7-6 victory on this diamond back on July 6th. Yankees 22-7 (+$1271) their last 29 vs. Division rivals have been pegged a whopping -$2.45 favorites with the total set at 9.5. Hell bent on backing New York, consider a run line (-1.5 -$1.25) knowing Yankees are 9-2 as home favorites with Burnett outscoring visitors 6.1 to 2.9.
Wednesday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
Streaking
Josh Beckett (Boston Red Sox)
The right-hander has eight outings this season in which he has not allowed an earned run, including his last two and five of his last nine starts.
Beckett has a string of 14 consecutive scoreless innings, giving up 10 hits and four walks while striking out 12 batters. He had strings of 18 2-3 and 16 scoreless innings in June.
Beckett has not lost at Fenway Park this season.
Bud Norris (Houston Astros)
While other established pitchers such as A.J. Burnett and Ricky Nolasco are in nice grooves, this rookie right-hander is off to a solid start.
Norris has surrendered just eight hits and struck out 12 batters in 13 innings in his two starts, both of which were wins. He has had a little trouble with control and needed 105 pitches to get through six innings his last time out.
Norris walked 53 hitters in 120 innings at Triple-A Round Rock, where he had a 2.63 ERA. He has lasted six innings in his last 12 starts at both levels.
Debuting
Jeff Samardzija (Chicago Cubs)
Yeah, we know about the guy Samardzija is facing. But the former Notre Dame football standout is making his first major league start.
A 6-foot-5 righty, Samardzija has made 42 relief appearances over his first two seasons. He was sharper as a rookie last year, beginning this season in the minor leagues.
The Cubs have tried to stretch out Samardzija with three outings of at least three innings, including a four-innings stint in his last appearance August 7. He was scored on in all three of those outings.
Trevor Bell (Los Angeles Angels)
The 22-year-old right-hander is making his major league debut, taking the rotation spot of Joe Saunders, who went on the DL with shoulder tightness.
"Trevor's shown the command and stuff that we hope he can do at least, or maybe more, than some guys (on the club) who are options," Angels manager Mike Scioscia told the Los Angeles Times, adding that Bell would get more than one start.
Bell should be ready. He was 4-3 with a 2.23 ERA in 11 starts for Double-A Arkansas and 3-4 with two shutouts and a 3.15 ERA for Triple-A Salt Lake in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. He is not a strikeout pitcher, collecting just 89 K's in 140 innings.
Slumping
Mark Buehrle (Chicago White Sox)
Mr. Perfect?
Really?
Yes, really.
The left-hander has been awful since his masterpiece against Tampa Bay. In his last three starts, he has been pounded for 17 runs and 28 hits in just 18 1-3 innings, taking three straight losses.
Not a big strikeout pitcher, Buehrle had six in his perfect game. He has had five since.
Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
New York Yankees at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EDT). CC Sabathia(notes) (12-7, 3.76 ERA) will be looking to win three straight starts for the second time this season as the Yankees open a four-game series against the Mariners. The burly left-hander is 4-1 with a 2.83 ERA in seven career starts at Safeco Field. He will be opposed by Ian Snell(notes), who has no record and a 6.14 ERA in two starts with Seattle since being acquired from Pittsburgh on July 29.
STARS
Tuesday
— Ben Francisco(notes), Phillies, led off the top of the 12th inning with a home run off to give Philadelphia a 4-3 win against the Chicago Cubs.
— Dan Uggla(notes), Marlins, hit a game-ending RBI single with the bases loaded in the 11th inning to give Florida a 9-8 win over Houston.
— Alexi Ramirez, White Sox, hit a three-run homer with one out in the top of the ninth to lift Chicago to a 3-1 victory at Seattle.
— Manny Ramirez(notes) and Matt Kemp(notes), Dodgers. Ramirez hit a two-run homer and an RBI double, and Kemp had a three-run homer in Los Angeles’ 9-1 win at San Francisco.
— Adrian Gonzalez(notes), Padres, had a career-high six hits and drove in three runs in San Diego’s 13-6 victory at Milwaukee.
— Mike Lowell(notes), Red Sox, entered the game after Kevin Youkilis(notes) was ejected for charging the mound and hit two homers in Boston’s 7-5 victory over Detroit.
— Andrew McCutchen(notes), Pirates, stole three bases and scored three runs to lead Pittsburgh to a a 7-3 victory at Colorado.
— Trent Oeltjen(notes), Diamondbacks, had four hits and scored two runs in Arizona’s 6-2 victory over the New York Mets.
STRONG STARTS
The Dodgers’ Randy Wolf(notes) allowed one run and three hits in eight innings of a 9-1 victory at San Francisco on Tuesday night, Los Angeles’ fifth win in its last six road games. … Ervin Santana(notes) pitched a three-hitter for his first home win of the season in the Angels’ 6-0 victory over Tampa Bay. … Braves rookie Tommy Hanson(notes) gave up six hits and struck out nine in 6 2-3 innings of an 8-1 victory over Washington. … Cleveland’s Aaron Laffey(notes) allowed six hits and three walks in 6 2-3 innings of a 5-0 victory over Texas, improving to 4-0 with a 1.59 ERA in five home starts.
BACK-TO-BACK
Hideki Matsui(notes) and Jorge Posada(notes) hit back-to-back homers leading off the eighth inning to lead the New York Yankees to a 7-5 victory over Toronto on Tuesday night. The Yankees hit consecutive homers in three straight games for the first time since 1983 and for the 13th time overall this season.
TEMPERS FLARING
Red Sox slugger Kevin Youkilis and Detroit starter Rick Porcello(notes) were ejected in the second inning of Boston’s 7-5 win Tuesday night when Youkilis started a benches-clearing ball by charging the mound after he was hit by a pitch from Porcello. The hostilities had been brewing since Monday night, when Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera(notes) was hit in the top of the fourth, Youkilis was plunked in the bottom half, and the Tigers’ Brandon Inge(notes) was hit in the eighth. They picked up in the first inning on Tuesday, when Boston’s Junichi Tazawa(notes) hit Cabrera in the left hand; in the bottom half, Porcello threw one inside to Victor Martinez(notes), who took a few menacing steps toward the mound before returning to the batter’s box. Mike Lowell replaced Youkilis in the lineup and homered twice.
STREAKS
Orlando Cabrera(notes) extended his career-best hitting streak to 20 games in the Twins’ 14-6 loss to Kansas City on Tuesday night. … Vladimir Guerrero(notes) extended his hitting streak to 13 games with two singles in the Angels’ 6-0 victory over Tampa Bay. … Colorado’s Todd Helton(notes) tripled and singled to extend his hitting streak to 16 games in a 7-3 loss to Pittsburgh. The Pirates’ win snapped their eight-game losing streak. … Baltimore ended a nine-game losing streak against Oakland with a 3-2 victory over the A’s. … Atlanta snapped Washington’s eight-game winning streak with an 8-1 victory over the Nationals.
STATS
Rajai Davis(notes) hit the 10,000th double in Oakland history in the first inning of the Athletics’ 3-2 loss to Baltimore on Tuesday night. Sal Bando had the first, on April 13, 1968. … The Orioles’ Brian Roberts(notes) improved to 12 for 12 stealing third base this season. Since the start of the 2003 season, he’s 71 for 77 stealing third.
SPEAKING
“He plays the game the right way. He plays it hard. He is always hustling. He always takes the extra base. Right now, he’s on fire.”—Diamondbacks starter Max Scherzer(notes) on his minor league roommate Trent Oeltjen, who was a homer shy of the cycle and had four hits in a 6-2 win over the Mets. Oeltjen has 12 hits in his first 24 at-bats since his contract was purchased Aug. 6 from Triple-A Reno.