MLB News and Notes Wednesday 8/18

Wednesday Tips
By Kevin Rogers

Plenty of teams are dropping out of the playoff race by the day as contending clubs try to solidify their positioning in October. The Twins look to widen the gap over the White Sox in the AL Central, while the Red Sox attempt to continue their domination of the Angels. We'll start at Citizens Bank Park with San Francisco and Philadelphia battling it out atop the NL Wild Card chase.

Giants at Phillies - 7:05 PM EST

There are a number of scenarios that can place one of these two teams in the postseason, or leave them both out of October baseball. San Francisco sits four games behind San Diego in the NL West, while Philadelphia is just 2 ½ games back of Atlanta in the NL East. Realistically, the Giants have better shot at the Wild Card, but play 15 games the rest of the way against the Phillies, Cardinals, Padres, and Reds.

Matt Cain (9-9, 3.11 ERA) has been the epitome of the home/road dichotomy pitcher, as the Giants are 4-8 in his 12 away starts and 8-4 in his 12 outings at AT&T Park. Cain doesn't receive good run support on the road with the San Francisco averaging 2.8 runs/game, while the Giants have plated four runs in his last three away starts. The righty hasn't faced the Phillies since 2008, as Cain won at Citizens Bank Park as a $1.45 underdog by a 3-2 count.

The Phillies send out Joe Blanton (4-6, 5.69 ERA), who was bailed out by a massive rally in last Thursday's 10-9 victory over the Dodgers. Blanton allowed eight hits and four earned runs in 5.2 innings, his second straight start in which the Phillies beat the opponents' bullpen to get the righty off the hook. Philadelphia has managed to win seven of his 10 home starts, while cashing the 'over' in seven straight home outings.

Seven of the last nine meetings have finished 'under' the total, dating back to last July. San Francisco is riding a nice 'under' run on the road, going 5-2 to the 'under' the previous seven on the highway. Philadelphia owns a 15-2 home mark since July 8, while scoring at least six runs on nine occasions.

Angels at Red Sox - 7:10 PM EST

Boston has owned Los Angeles this season, winning the first seven meetings as the Red Sox avenged last October's sweep in the ALDS by the Angels. The Sox still have time to catch the Yankees and Rays in the AL East/AL Wild Card races, but Boston needs to make up 5 ½ games over the next six weeks. The Angels have been a disappointment this season, and now have to face an old friend in Tuesday's contest.

John Lackey (10-7, 4.54 ERA) looks for his first win in four starts, which coincidentally came against his ex-teammates in Anaheim on July 27. Lackey has beaten the Angels twice this season, allowing three earned runs in 14.1 innings, including the 4-2 win over the Halos in late July. The veteran right-hander lost out on a win in his last time out, as the Boston bullpen blew a late 5-2 lead in a 6-5 setback at Toronto last Thursday.

The Angels counter with Scott Kazmir (8-10, 6.36 ERA), who has not been very reliable this season. Kazmir has looked better in his last two outings, giving up three runs and seven hits in 11 innings, as the Angels split a pair of games against the Tigers and Blue Jays. The southpaw was touched up by the Sox in his last visit to Fenway, allowing six hits and seven earned runs in 4.1 innings of an 11-6 blowout loss.

Boston is 6-2 the previous eight meetings at Fenway, while holding the Angels to three runs or less in five of the seven matchups this season. The Sox own a 5-7 record the last 12 games at home, including five losses as a favorite of at least $1.50.

White Sox at Twins - 8:10 PM EST

The tight AL Central race between Chicago and Minnesota continues to get interesting as the two clubs play the second of a three-game set at Target Field. In a season series that has been dominated by the Twins, the White Sox need to make a statement as they face Minnesota just five more times the rest of the season.

Francisco Liriano (11-7, 3.26 ERA) looks to beat the Sox for the third time this season, as the Minnesota lefty is coming off a 6-1 victory on the South Side last Thursday. Liriano is fresh off four consecutive quality starts at home, including back-to-back scoreless efforts against the Mariners and Indians. The southpaw is 6-3 at Target Field this season, while Minnesota has tallied at least five runs in four of his previous five home starts.

The Sox send out Gavin Floyd (8-9, 3.70 ERA), who was on the losing end of that 6-1 setback to the Twins last week. Floyd allowed six earned runs in 6.2 innings, equaling the amount of runs given up in his previous six starts combined. For as much fortune as Liriano has seen against the Sox, Floyd hasn't felt that kind of luck, losing both starts against Minnesota this season. The loss to the Twins also ended a streak of four straight outings of tossing seven innings.

vegasinsider.com

MLB RoundUp For 8/18
By Dan Bebe

National League

Brewers @ Cardinals (-244) with a total of 7.5
Adam Wainwright hasn't had too many troubles with the Brewers in his beefy career, going 7-3 with a 1.94 ERA against Milwaukee. This line is well out of our price range to back the favorite, and given Wainwright's dominance of Milwaukee, not enough reason to grab at the underdog. Pass.

Padres (-140) @ Cubs with a total of N/A
I will admit, I don't know as much as I should about the young Cubs starter, Casey Coleman. I know he has no record and an 8.64 ERA, but that doesn't tell us much. No one has really seen much of each other in this one, which makes me think that this might come down to the bullpens, and the Padres have a monster edge, there. It's a day game, so there are always some question marks, and at this price, I probably would pass.

Marlins (-200) @ Pirates with a total of 7
This is way too high of a price to pay for a road favorite, especially since Johnson hasn't really faced the Pirates all that much, and especially since Ohlendorf is actually 1-1 with a respectable 3.75 ERA against the Marlins. Ohlendorf might be one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball, at 1-9 with a 3.95 season ERA. I mean, goodness gracious. A pretty low total catches my eye -- watch how the money comes in, there.

Giants @ Phillies (-110) with a total of 8.5
Matt Cain has a terrible history with Philadelphia, which is a shame because, looking at the line, I was tempted to get behind him. Cain is 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA against the Phils, and while Blanton hasn't exactly been strong against the Giants (1-3, 5.08), I'd rather get underdog value with a team like San Francisco if they're going to be playing against a good team on the road. That being said, the strength of the opening line certainly has an impact. Cain is coming off a couple of marginal starts, not up to his usual standards. Blanton is coming off a full season of marginal starts. If you think the teams get a few runs off the bullpens, I'd look at the Over. Otherwise, I suppose you have to tip just slightly to the Giants.

Nationals @ Braves (-215) with a total of 7
You want to talk about completely owning a team? Tim Hudson is 10-1 with a 1.49 ERA against the Washington Nationals franchise. Livan Hernandez is 6-14 with a 5.41 ERA against the Braves, and has been good once and bad once against them this year. This is one of those spots where I'm not happy to admit it, but I would sooner play a home run line than the big road dog, despite the line inflation. The low total makes me a little nervous, though, since Livan could very well toss 6 decent innings. Be careful.

Mets @ Astros (-110) with a total of 7
This is a pretty solid pitching duel, despite the complete lack of playoff implications of the game. Dickey is still sporting a 2.43 ERA on the season, though he's seen almost zero of the Astros, especially the youngsters. He's coming off a complete game 1-hitter against the Phils, too, so he's not trending up or down, just pitching well almost every time. Brett Myers has been outrageously consistent, all season long, and the Astros recent stretch of better play has suddenly elevated Myers to favorite status in a game against a pretty public team, the Mets. He's 9-6 with a 5.01 ERA lifetime against New York, but current Mets Luis Castillo, Jeff Francoeur, Jose Reyes and David Wright have combined to do almost nothing against Myers. It's tough to see how these guys could tag Myers for a similarly high ERA, and even at 7 runs, the Under is in play.

Reds (-135) @ D'backs with a total of 10
This line is probably more like what we'd expect in this series, after last night's rather cheap number on Arroyo. Obviously, the dropoff to Rodrigo Lopez is part of the equation, and his ability to serve up dingers is unparalleled around baseball. Add to that Cincinnati's ability to drive 'em out of the yard, and Lopez seems like a scary play. Volquez, meanwhile, has seemed to get things back in gear after coming off the DL with a bit of a slowness, but he's been on cruise control his last few starts. He's rarely going to go super-deep in games while he builds the arm strength back up, but his recent success makes this line pretty accurate, and pretty fair.

Rockies @ Dodgers (-135) with a total of 7.5
This is a very cheap line on the Dodgers, at home, especially when you consider that the Dodgers' starter has an ERA almost a full run lower than his competitor. If we look deeper, though, Kuroda's 0-3, 7.57 career mark against the Rockies certainly jumps out. And while he has indeed been worse at Coors than here at home, Kuroda hasn't exactly been convincing at either venue against a team that hits him very, very hard. Hammel, as we all know, seems to be more comfortable pitching at home, but his 2.25 ERA against the Dodgers, and only brief work against them makes me think he does have a slight edge, there. It also doesn't hurt that the Dodgers bullpen is in disarray, and the team seems to have given up.

American League

Rangers @ Rays (-161) with a total of 9
This is a pretty lopsided line, considering how good both teams are, and you can put a lot of that on the names of the starting pitchers. That being said, Shields has not been at all his usual dominant self, and is coming off 2 pretty poor efforts. A similarly ugly performance will not get it done. Derek Holland makes his first start since late May, and we've seen a few times this year guys getting yanked back up from the Minors for a second time and pitching well. Confidence is a big part of that. In his first stint this year, Holland pitched alright in 3 starts and very poorly in 1 other, and is somehow 2-0 with a 5.73 ERA against the Rays in his short career. This is way too high a price to pay for the struggling Shields, and it's Rangers or nothing on the AL early afternoon game.

Blue Jays @ Athletics (-130) with a total of 8
Gio Gonzalez gets to start at home - that has to be the first thing you notice in this one, and he's been quite comfortable in Oakland, this year. Toronto's starter is coming off a brilliant outing in Anaheim, going 7 innings of 2-hit ball, so he's feeling good about himself. Gonzalez is coming off a decent road start, but his damage gets done at home, and I happen to think that with Rzepczynski pitching as well as he has been, the Under might be the best play. That number of 8 might look high, but it's about where we would expect, given Toronto's strong offense.

Tigers @ Yankees (-185) with a total of 9.5
This line gives absolutely no respect, at all, to Jeremy Bonderman, and I guess I can understand it. He's 3-8 with a 5.29 ERA against the Yanks in his career, though the current Yankees haven't done a great deal against him in the last 5 years. I don't think you can back Moseley at this price, not while the Tigers are playing a little better, but I don't think I have the confidence in Bonderman, either. He's coming off a 6-run effort in one of those wacky high-scoring games in Chicago, so you have to think he's going to be a little more focused than usual, but this one could definitely have some scoring.

Mariners @ Orioles (-147) with a total of 8.5
I think this might officially be too high a price to pay for the Orioles. I know Guthrie's last 6 starts have all been outstanding, but David Pauley has been sneaky-good, and the Mariners are definitely pitching well as a team, right now. Guthrie should keep the Orioles neck and neck, as should Pauley for the Mariners, but at this price, you have to see a pretty substantial advantage in the starters to lay the chalk. Does that mean I advocate backing Seattle? Well, if you think you can win with only 2 runs, then perhaps, but it's not going to be easy no matter which side you take.

Angels @ Red Sox (-175) with a total of 10
I'll admit, I was hoping to see a lower line when I heard of the projected starters -- Lackey has been completely dominant against his old team, and now we run up against the philosophy that destroying the same team 3 times in the same season isn't easy. I'm not sure I'm on board in this particular spot. Both starters are coming off decent starts, and Kazmir has looked better since his return from the DL, so I think that at this inflated price, you have to at least consider the Angels. Still, Lackey's success against the Angels makes it a tough trigger to pull, and I'm looking harder at passing, or at the total... given that absurdly high total, there has to be some sort of madness at work.

White Sox @ Twins (-145) with a total of 7
Double rematch! This is a good one, with Floyd having lost each of the first two meetings. And it wasn't for lack of effort. Floyd got left in the last game a batter too long and served up a monster home run in the 7th. In the previous meeting, the Sox defense let him down. Still, fact is, he can't get over that hump with the Twinkies. Liriano squirmed his way through 5.2 innings in that most recent win over Floyd and the White Sox, stranding runners all over the place. He's looked good enough in his two recent wins over Chicago, and 3 total wins over Chicago on the year. How many wins can Liriano rack up against one team? Something tells me this one is a competitive game, and it won't be as easy a win for the Twins as people expect. The low, low total certainly agrees.

Indians (-113) @ Royals with a total of 8.5
This price seems somewhat low for Carmona and the Indians, doesn't it? I know the Indians still aren't a team that's going to get much love, but the name Carmona is about the only one on the starting staff that can actually drive some money. Bruce Chen isn't such a name. He is a streaky sort, looking excellent in June, just plain awful in July, and has been decent again in August. Tough to know what you're going to get from Chen, especially considering his 1-2, 9.00 lifetime mark against the Indians. It's a bit of a public play, and the line would tell us to back the Royals, but I'd actually lean Indians and the Under more than the other potential plays.

Tips and Trends

Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees

TIGERS: Detroit has won their past 3 games, yet their season is all but over. The Tigers are 58-60 SU this year, 10 games back of the American League Central division lead. Detroit has struggled mightily away from home, going 20-36 SU this year. The Tigers are -2.92 and -0.05 units both SU and on the RL this season. The Detroit pitching staff has held their own against the Yankees, holding them to 1 run or fewer in 3 of the 5 meetings this season. Pitcher Jeremy Bonderman will attempt to keep that streak going, as he will make the road start tonight. Bonderman is 6-8 with an ERA of 5.16 and a WHIP of 1.36 this season. The Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 games against a right-handed starter. Detroit is 4-1 in their last 5 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Tigers are 7-19 in their last 26 road games. The Tigers are 6-1 in Bonderman's last 7 starts with 4 days of rest. Detroit is 5-11 in Bonderman's last 16 starts against a team with a winning record. The Tigers are 3-7 in Bonderman's last 10 starts against the American League East.

Tigers are 3-8 last 11 games against the American League East.
Under is 8-3 last 11 road games against a right-handed starter.

Key Injuries - LF Carlos Guillen (knee) is questionable.

Projected Score: 5

YANKEES: (-190, O/U 9.5) New York has been caught again, as Tampa Bay has joined them for the best overall record in baseball. New York is 72-46 SU this season, including 37-21 SU at home. New York is +0.98 and +10.98 units both SU and on the RL respectively this year. The Yankees have struggled against Detroit this year, losing 4 of the 5 meetings. Pitcher Dustin Moseley will make the home start tonight, as he is 2-2 with an ERA of 4.41 and a WHIP of 1.33 this season. The Yankees are 50-16 in their last 66 Wednesday games. The Yankees are 41-16 in their last 57 home games against a team with a losing record. New York is 38-15 in their last 53 games during game 3 of a series. The Yankees are 72-32 in their last 104 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. New York is 96-47 in their last 143 games against a right-handed starter.

Yankees are 42-17 last 59 games against the American League Central.
Under is 4-1 last 5 games against a team with a losing record.

Key Injuries - 1B Lance Berkman (ankle) is questionable.

Projected Score: 7 (OVER-Total of the Day)

New York Mets at Houston Astros

METS: New York is on the other side of the coin, as they are a team also out of the playoff chase, yet are ending the season in turmoil. New York has been arguably one of the most disappointing teams of the year. New York is just 59-59 SU this year, including a paltry 23-37 SU on the road. The Mets are -0.82 and +17.73 units both SU and on the RL respectively this season. Offensively, it's been 8 games since the Mets have scored more than 4 runs. Pitcher R.A. Dickey will look to pitch well tonight on the road, as he is 8-5 this season with an ERA of 2.43 and a WHIP of 1.15. The Mets are 2-5 in their last 7 road games against a team with a losing home record. New York is 2-5 in their last 7 games against a right-handed starter. The Mets are 7-20 in their last 27 Wednesday games. New York is 1-4 in their last 5 games during game 3 of a series. The Mets are 2-5 in Dickey's last 7 starts with 4 days of rest. New York is 1-6 in Dickey's last 7 road starts. The Mets are 1-6 in Dickey's last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.

Mets are 5-13 last 18 road games.
Over is 13-5 last 18 games against a team with a losing record.

Key Injuries - LF Jason Bay (concussion) is out.

Projected Score: 2

ASTROS: (-106, O/U 7) Houston is competing hard as the season winds down, pretty much all you can ask for with a team completely out of the playoff picture. Houston has been a great team to back from a betting perspective since the All-Star break. The Astros are 51-66 SU this season, including 30-32 SU at home. Houston is +0.64 and -8.26 units both SU and on the RL overall this year. The Astros pitching staff has held their past 4 opponents to 3 runs or fewer. Ace Pitcher Brett Myers will take the home mound tonight, as he continues his near dominant season. Myers is 8-7 SU this year, with an ERA of 3.13 and a WHIP of 1.21. The Astros are 13-3 in their last 16 Wednesday games. Houston is 6-14 in their last 20 games against the National League East. The Astros are 2-5 in their last 7 games against a right-handed starter. Houston is 10-1 in Myers' last 11 home starts overall. The Astros are 6-1 in Myers' last 7 starts on grass. Houston is 5-1 in Myers' last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.

Astros are 7-1 last 8 home games against a team with a road winning percentage less than .400%.
Under is 7-3 last 10 home games.

Key Injuries - 3B Jeff Keppinger (toe) is questionable.

Projected Score: 4 (SIDE of the Day)

Diamond Trends - Wednesday
By Vince Akins

Mets at Astros – The Mets are 8-0 since April 17, 2010 within 20 cents of pickem when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $840. The Astros are 10-0 since April 20, 2010 when Brett Myers starts at home for a net profit of $1070.

Blue Jays at Athletics – The Blue Jays are 0-9 since April 17, 2010 as a dog when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Athletics are 11-0 since April 25, 2010 as a favorite and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $1100. The Athletics are 8-0 since April 25, 2010 at home and it is the last game of a three game series when they split the first two for a net profit of $855. The Athletics are 8-0 since September 06, 2009 when Gio Gonzalez starts at home when the start time is earlier than 4:00 PM local time for a net profit of $800

Nationals at Braves – The Nationals are 0-10 since May 16, 2010 as a road dog vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The Braves are 8-0 since May 28, 2010 as a home 140+ favorite after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $800.

Brewers at Cardinals – The Brewers are 0-6 since June 03, 2010 as a dog after a win and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Cardinals are 11-0 since April 16, 2010 as a favorite after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1100. The Cardinals are 10-0 since April 12, 2010 when Adam Wainwright starts as a home favorite vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $1000.

Padres at Cubs – The Padres are 9-0 since May 30, 2010 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $900. The Cubs are 0-7 since July 31, 2010 as a dog when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $700 when playing against.

Reds at Diamondbacks – The Reds are 6-0 since May 29, 2010 as a favorite after a win in which they left 18+ men on base and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $600. The Diamondbacks are 0-7 since April 18, 2010 within 20 cents of pickem vs a team that has won at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $705 when playing against.

Rockies at Dodgers – The Rockies are 0-6 since August 30, 2009 when Jason Hammel starts after facing 30 or more hitters for a net profit of $610 when playing against. The Dodgers are 6-0 since September 16, 2009 when Hiroki Kuroda starts as a favorite after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start for a net profit of $600.

Mariners at Orioles – The Mariners are 0-6 since April 06, 2010 on the road after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $635 when playing against. The Orioles are 0-8 since May 16, 2010 and it is the last game of a three game series when they split the first two for a net profit of $800 when playing against.

Giants at Phillies – The Giants are 6-0 since July 03, 2010 when they are off a loss in which they held the lead for a net profit of $730. The Phillies are 9-0 since July 23, 2010 after a win in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $970.

Marlins at Pirates – The Marlins are 7-0 since August 26, 2009 when Josh Johnson starts after facing 25 or fewer hitters and they lost in his previous start for a net profit of $720. The Pirates are 0-13 since May 22, 2010 as a 140+ dog after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1300 when playing against. The Pirates are 0-7 since June 19, 2009 when Ross Ohlendorf starts after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start for a net profit of $720 when playing against.

Rangers at Rays – The Rays are 10-0 since July 05, 2010 at home when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $1000.

Angels at Red Sox – The Angels are 0-5 since July 06, 2010 on the road after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Red Sox are 0-5 since June 30, 2010 at home when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $770 when playing against.

Indians at Royals – The Indians are 0-9 since April 12, 2010 within 20 cents of pickem when they are off a loss in which they held the lead for a net profit of $920 when playing against.

White Sox at Twins – The Twins are 10-0 since July 22, 2010 when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $1080. The Twins are 8-0 since June 09, 2010 as a favorite after a win in which they had 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $800.

Tigers at Yankees – The Yankees are 0-5 since July 10, 2010 after a win in which they drew 5+ walks for a net profit of $710 when playing against.