Wednesday Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The middle of the week provides bettors with a handful of solid pitching matchups around baseball. Two of the top aces inside the National League meet up in Philadelphia, with a low-scoring game expected in the City of Brotherly Love.
Diamondbacks at Phillies (7:05 PM EST)
The Phillies made off like bandits by acquiring Cliff Lee (3-0, 1.12 ERA) from the Indians prior to the trade deadline. The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner has been fantastic in his first three starts with the Phils, allowing three earned runs in 24 innings of work. Lee consistently goes deep into games, tossing at least 109 pitches in six of his last seven starts, dating back to late June with Cleveland.
Dan Haren (12-7, 2.50 ERA) rebounded nicely after consecutive subpar starts by beating the Dodgers his last time out. Haren scattered six hits and one run in eight innings, as Arizona topped Los Angeles, 4-1. Haren came off a string of four straight outings which were non-quality starts prior to the Dodgers win. Arizona has performed better when Haren starts on the road as opposed to Chase Field. The D-Backs are 8-4 in Haren's away starts, while going just 7-5 at home.
Arizona has not fared well recently on the road against left-handed starters, winning just three of the last 16 in this spot.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants has installed the Phillies as a $1.70 home favorite, with the total listed at 8 (Bet $1.25 to win $1.00 on the 'under').
Red Sox at Blue Jays (7:07 PM EST)
The Red Sox are now looking up at the Rangers in the AL Wild Card race, after dropping two of three in Arlington over the weekend. Boston has now lost eight of its last nine on the road entering Tuesday's action in Toronto.
Roy Halladay (13-5, 2.65 ERA) is coming off solid back-to-back starts, beating the Orioles and Rays. Halladay finally beat Tampa Bay for the first time in four tries last Friday, 5-2. The Jays ace has pitched eight innings or more in five of his last six starts, despite Toronto going 3-3 in this span. Halladay shut down the Sox at Rogers Centre last month, 3-1, tossing a complete-game, six-hitter.
Clay Buchholz (1-3, 4.45 ERA) received no run support in his last two outings as he faced tough competition. The Sox righty lost to the Tigers and Yankees, but delivered quality starts each time. Boston, though, was shut out in each game. One of Buchholz's biggest problems is a poor strikeout-to-walk ratio, which is right now 20-to-19. Buchholz was on the winning side of a 4-1 decision at Toronto on July 17, giving up four hits and one run in five innings of work.
The 'under' has hit in seven of nine meetings this season, while the home team is 7-2.
The Blue Jays are listed as a $1.60 home 'chalk,' while the total is set at 7 ½ (Bet $1.25 to win $1.00 on the 'over'), according to LVSC.
Twins at Rangers (8:05 PM EST)
The Rangers look to extend their slim Wild Card advantage, hosting the reeling Twins. Minnesota continues to stumble, dropping 12 of 16, following a three-game sweep of the White Sox at the end of July. Oddly, in three of Minnesota's four victories in this stretch, the Twins have scored ten runs or more.
Texas sends out veteran righty Kevin Millwood (9-7, 3.31 ERA) to the hill, going for his tenth victory. Millwood was set for win number ten last Friday against Boston, but the Red Sox shocked the Rangers with five runs in the ninth inning to beat Texas, 8-4. Millwood's home numbers are superb, compiling a 7-1 mark in Arlington, to go along with an ERA of 2.46. Millwood was touched up considerably against the Twins in two starts last season, allowing 19 hits and 10 earned runs in 12.1 innings of work.
Scott Baker (10-7, 4.54 ERA) is coming off his best start of the season, a complete-game, two-hit gem against Cleveland. The Twins are 7-3 in Baker's last ten starts, including a 4-2 mark on the road. One of those away victories came at Texas last month, an eight-inning effort in a 4-1 win. Thanks to good run support lately, the Twins have hit the 'over' in four of Baker's last five starts.
The Rangers continue to be the best 'under' play in baseball, nailing it a league-high 73 times this season. Ameriquest Field used to be known as a band-box, but the 'under' has been drilled in 12 of Texas' last 17 home contests.
LVSC has listed the Rangers as a $1.30 home favorite, with the total set at 9.
vegasinsider.com
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (68-53) at L.A. Dodgers (71-49)
The Dodgers look to make it two in a row when they send Clayton Kershaw (8-7, 2.91 ERA) to the mound in the rubber match of a three-game series against the Cardinals and red-hot Adam Wainwright (14-7, 2.62).
Los Angeles followed up Monday’s 3-2 defeat to St. Louis with a 7-3 pounding last night, ending their four-game home losing streak and the Cardinals’ five-game overall win streak. The Dodgers are 61-27 in their last 80 games as a home favorite, but most recently, they’re still mired in slumps of 4-7 overall, 3-6 against the N.L. Central and 3-6 versus right-handed starters.
Even with Tuesday’s loss, St. Louis is still 9-2 in its last 11 overall and is on additional upticks of 4-1 on the road, 8-2 against the N.L. West (4-1 last five) and 8-1 against left-handed starters. However, the Cardinals have now dropped eight of their last 11 as an underdog.
St. Louis continues to own this rivalry, having won 38 of the last 56 meetings overall, including nine of the last 13 in Los Angeles. This year, the Cards are 4-2 against L.A.
Wainwright pitched eight scoreless innings in Friday’s 9-2 home rout of the Padres, and he’s not only delivered 10 consecutive quality starts, he’s held all 10 of those opponents to two earned runs or fewer. Since the start of July, the right-hander is 6-2 with a 1.21 ERA in nine outings, including 4-0 with a 1.24 ERA in four road starts. For the season, he’s 9-1 with a 3.41 ERA in 11 starts as a visitor.
With Wainwright pitching, the Cardinals are on a slew of lengthy hot streaks, including 38-16 overall, 25-10 on the road, 18-5 as an underdog, 9-0 as a road underdog, 24-3 versus winning teams and 6-0 on Wednesday. Against the Dodgers, he’s 2-2 with a 3.26 ERA in seven games (four starts), including a 10-0 home win on July 28.
Kershaw is coming off Friday’s 4-1 loss at Arizona as he allowed all four runs in 4 1/3 innings. The Dodgers have lost five straight games behind Kershaw after going 7-0 in his previous seven starts. However, L.A. is 12-5 in Kershaw’s last 17 as a home favorite and 7-3 in his last 10 against the N.L. Central.
Despite a 1.86 ERA, Kershaw is just 3-3 in 13 home starts, with the Dodgers going 7-6. Kershaw dominated St. Louis back on July 29, pitching eight scoreless innings at Busch Stadium, and he left with a 1-0 lead but Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton blew the save and L.A. eventually lost 3-2 in 15 innings. In three career starts versus the Cardinals, Kershaw has allowed just three runs in 21 innings (1.29 ERA).
For the Cardinals, the “over” is on runs of 7-3-3 overall, 6-1-2 on the road, 4-0-1 against lefty starters, 10-3-2 in Wainwright’s last 15 road outings and 7-1-1 in his last nine as an underdog. However, the under is 5-0-1 in St. Louis’ last six Wednesday contests, 9-5 in its last 14 against the N.L. West and 7-2-1 in Wainwright’s last 10 starts overall.
The over is 10-4-1 in L.A.’s last 15 home games, but otherwise the team is on “under” surges of 4-1-1 on Wednesday and 6-2 when Kershaw is favored. Finally, the under is 8-4 in the last 12 overall meetings in this rivalry, including 4-1 at Dodger Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (67-51) at Toronto (55-62)
The Blue Jays try to halt a three-game losing skid when they send ace Roy Halladay (13-5, 2.65 ERA) to the hill opposite the Red Sox and Clay Buchholz (1-3, 4.45) as these rivals resume their three-game series continues at the Rogers Centre.
Boston overcame one of Josh Beckett’s worst performances of the season and outlasted the Blue Jays 10-9 in Tuesday’s series opener. However, the Sox are still just 5-9 in their last 14 games overall, including 2-8 on the road, and they’re on further slides of 1-10 as an underdog (0-9 as a road pup) and 1-6 against the A.L. East.
Toronto has lost two in row, four of five and 10 of 16 overall, going 2-4 at home during this stretch. The Blue Jays are in additional slumps of 6-13 as a favorite, 1-5 against the A.L. East and 1-4 on Wednesday.
Boston holds a slim 6-4 edge in the season series with Toronto, but the home team is still 7-3. Prior to Tuesday, the losing team had scored three runs or fewer in the first nine meetings between these squads.
Buchholz is coming off his first two quality starts in more than a year, giving up a total of four runs (three earned) in 13 innings against the Yankees (road) and Tigers (home). However, he got zero offensive support, losing 5-0 to New York star CC Sabathia and 2-0 to Detroit ace Justin Verlander. The Red Sox are now 5-17 in Buchholz’s last 22 starts overall, 3-12 in his last 15 on the road, 1-5 in his last six on Wednesday and 3-8 in his last 11 versus the A.L. East.
Buchholz beat the Blue Jays 4-1 in Toronto in his first big-league start of the season July 17, allowing the single run on four hits in 5 2/3 innings as he improved to 1-2 with a 3.31 ERA in four career games (three starts) against the Jays.. However, he’s just 1-2 with a 5.95 ERA in four road starts in 2009.
Halladay is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in his last two starts, pitching eight innings each against the Orioles (7-3 home win) and Rays (5-2 road victory). The veteran right-hander has gone at least seven innings in eight straight starts and he’s 8-3 with a 2.57 ERA in 13 home efforts, including five complete games. Behind their former Cy Young winner, the Blue Jays are on positive runs of 56-19 at home, 48-22 against divisional rivals, 111-52 as a favorite and 7-2 in when he faces the Red Sox in Canada.
Halladay has been mediocre versus the Red Sox in his career, going 13-12 with a 4.33 ERA in 38 lifetime appearances (35 starts). However, that includes a complete-game 3-1 home win on July 19, with Halladay scattering six hits while striking out seven. He has a 1.82 ERA in his last five starts versus Boston going back to last April.
Despite last night’s shootout, the Blue Jays are on “under” runs of 12-6-3 at home, 14-7-1 against the A.L. East and 6-1 against right-handed starters. Also, with Halladay pitching, the “under” is on streaks of 5-1-1 overall, 5-0-1 against winning teams and 4-1 versus Boston. Similarly, the Red Sox carry “under” trends of 5-2 on the road, 10-5-1 against A.L. East competition, 20-7-2 as an underdog and 16-5 as a road pup.
Finally, the under is still 6-2 in the last eight meetings overall in this rivalry, all in Toronto
ATS ADVANTAGE: TORONTO and UNDER
Best vs Best
By SportsPic
Behind a stellar pitching performance by Chad Billingsley yielding three hits over six strong innings the Dodgers not only snapped a four-game home losing streak but also halted a Cardinal five game run. Dodgers 9-14 (-$794) the past twenty-three on the diamond including just 3-7 (-$726) at Dodger Stadium count on Clayton Kershaw (8-7, 2.91) in the rubber match of two first-place clubs. The southpaw winless in five trips to the mound (0-5 TSR) costing backers a whopping -$797 over the span last faced Cardinals on July 29th holding Birds scoreless for eight innings but was saddled with a ND in the 3-2 defeat leaving his record at 1-0 in three life-time starts vs St Louis (2-1 TSR). Cardinals 11-4 (+$428) in August have Adam Wainwright (14-7, 2.62) toeing the rubber. Wainwright in great form surrendering two or less runs in each of his last nine starts including eight innings of shutout ball in a 10-0 spanking of Dodgers carries a sparkling 7-2 TSR to the mound. It is well to note Cardinals are 13-3 on the road vs a winning team with Wainwright touching toe to rubber, 9-0 on the highway as underdogs with the hurler. At this posting Sportsbooks had pegged Dodgers -$1.20 to -$1.25 faves for the contest. But, keep an eye out for a pitching change, Kershaw was sent home early Tuesday because of flu-like symptoms and will be replaced by Jeff Weaver if he isn't ready to pitch.
Wednesday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Adam Wainwright (14-7, 2.62 ERA), St. Louis Cardinals
If it weren’t for Tim Lincecum, Wainwright would be the frontrunner for this year’s National League Cy Young award.
The towering righty has gone 10 straight starts without surrendering more than two earned runs. He hasn’t walked a batter in his last three starts and he leads the NL with 14 wins.
Need more?
He’s pitched at least six innings in each of his last 23 starts. The Cards have also won seven of his last eight outings.
Cliff Lee (10-9, 2.86 ERA), Philadelphia Phillies
Halladay who?
This former Cleveland ace is loving life in the Senior Circuit. The Phillies have won each of Lee’s three starts and the southpaw owns a sparkling 1.13 ERA with his new club.
He’s pitching deep into games and is striking out batters by the handful. The under has cashed in seven of his last eight appearances and he still hasn’t been priced higher than -170.
Slumping
Jose Contreras (4-11, 5.40 ERA), Chicago White Sox
Is there any pitcher in baseball less deserving of a $10 million price tag?
The Cuban product hasn’t pitched past the fifth inning since July 24. He got dinged for six runs over 4 1-3 innings last time out and he hasn’t produced a quality start since the beginning of last month.
Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
Wednesday, Aug. 19
St. Louis at Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EDT). The first place Cardinals finish off a three-game set with the NL West-leading Dodgers.
STARS
Tuesday
-Joe Mauer, Twins, homered twice to help Minnesota beat Texas 9-6.
-David Ortiz, Red Sox, homered and scored three times, including the go-ahead run in the eighth inning to help Boston beat Toronto 10-9.
-Jamie Moyer, Phillies, pitched six scoreless innings in relief of Pedro Martinez after a rain delay, leading Philadelphia past Arizona 5-1.
-Derek Jeter, Yankees, had his third straight three-hit game in New York's 7-2 win over Oakland.
-Ryan Garko, Giants, hit a two-run double in the 10th inning to complete San Francisco's comeback from a four-run deficit in an 8-5 victory over Cincinnati.
-Chad Billingsley, Dodgers, allowed three hits over six innings and added an RBI single to help Los Angeles snap St. Louis' five-game winning streak with a 7-3 win.
- Billy Butler, Royals, doubled three times, had two RBIs and scored the go-ahead run in Kansas City's 5-4 win over the Chicago White Sox.
-Ricky Nolasco, Marlins, struck out 10 in his second complete game of the season, leading Florida to a 6-2 win over Houston.
-Kyle Blanks, Padres, hit a two-run inside the park homer to help San Diego beat the Chicago Cubs 6-3.
.300 CLUB
All nine Angels hitters in the starting lineup of their 5-4 win in Cleveland on Tuesday night are batting .300 or better for the season. It was close: Maicer Izturis went 1 for 4 and Mike Napoli needed to go 2 for 4 in order for both to finish right on .300.
QUALITY FINISH
Jamie Moyer pitched six scoreless innings in relief of Pedro Martinez, who took his spot in the starting rotation, and the Philadelphia Phillies beat the Arizona Diamondbacks 5-1 Tuesday night. Moyer hadn't appeared in relief since June 24, 2004, when he entered in the 15th inning of Seattle's 9-7 loss to Texas in 18 innings. He hasn't pitched regularly out of the bullpen since 1996 with Boston.
LOW-HANGING FRUIT
The White Sox struggled again with the Kansas City Royals, falling 5-4 Tuesday night. The last-place Royals are 7-7 against the White Sox - and 40-65 against the rest of the major leagues.
WELCOME BACK
CC Sabathia finally gave his friends and family a start to cheer about in Oakland, pitching eight sharp innings to win in Oakland for the first time in six years, leading the New York Yankees to a 7-2 victory over the Athletics on Tuesday night. His last win in Oakland, near his childhood home of Vallejo, was July 30, 2003, with Cleveland.
DYE ANOTHER DAY
On a night Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon arrived at the ballpark with his silver hair dyed black, Gabe Gross hit a two-run homer, and Pat Burrell and B.J. Upton added solo shots to lead the Rays past the Baltimore Orioles 5-4 on Tuesday. Maddon's color change was in preparation for next week's Johnny Cash-theme road trip, and was an attempt to keep his team loose. The Rays started Tuesday four games behind AL wild-card leader Texas.
TEN AGAIN
Florida reached 10 hits for the 14th consecutive game on Tuesday night, in the Marlins' 6-2 win over the Houston Astros. Florida's streak of 10-hit games is the longest since the 1937 St. Louis Browns reached the total in 15 straight, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
TURNAROUND
Gary Sheffield doubled twice in an eight-run fourth inning and the New York Mets battered Derek Lowe, rebounding from an early deficit for a 9-4 victory over the Braves on Tuesday night.
SPEAKING
"At times we always preface our remarks by saying, 'For a big man.' I told him I'm not saying that anymore.'' - Padres manager Bud Black, after 6-foot-6, 285-pound Kyle Blanks scored on an inside-the-park homer in San Diego's 6-3 win over the Cubs.
"It was a fun night. You never know what you're going to get when you put two old goats out there. I enjoyed it.'' - Pedro Martinez, who was relived by Jamie Moyer after his start was cut short by a rain delay in Philadelphia's 5-1 win over Arizona on Tuesday night.
Red Sox dogs in Toronto
By Brobury Sports
The Boston Red Sox got a win Tuesday night in Toronto, but things get a lot tougher tonight against Toronto’s ace.
The Blue Jays are big -162 home chalk at BroburySports.com with Roy Halladay taking the hill. The Over/Under is just eight runs and ESPN has the broadcast at 7:05 pm EST.
Note the Under is 6-2 in their last eight meetings even after it went Over last night with Boston’s 10-9 win
Boston (67-51) got the victory despite ace Josh Beckett having an off night and giving up seven earned runs. The Sox are still just 2-8 in their last 10 road games and they are tied with Texas for the AL Wild Card.
The Sox’ offense had been silent, as they’re 10th in AL runs scored after the break compare to 3rd before. Getting Victor Martinez from Cleveland has helped but too many of their other players have gone into slumps at the same time.
Toronto (55-62) is mired in 4th place in the AL East , but they always seem tough at home against Boston (4-3 this year) and they will play hard the rest of the way with fiery manager Cito Gaston.
Roy Halladay (Toronto) vs. Clay Buchholz (Boston)
Boston is desperate to find a reliable third starter with Tim Wakefield and Daisuke Matsuzaka still on the shelf. Buchholz (1-3, 4.45 ERA) was tearing up AAA with Pawtucket before getting his first major league start on July 17th.
His first four starts were struggles for the most part (6.05 ERA) but he has pitched much better in his last two at the Yankees and home against Detroit. The Red Sox got shut out both games but Buchholz gave up just three runs in 13 innings and he now has some confidence to go along with his above average stuff.
Halladay (13-5, 2.65 ERA) got close to becoming a member of Boston at the trading deadline. The Red Sox reportedly had the best offer on the table but Jays’ GM J.P. Ricciardi was adamant he had to get ‘blown away’ by an offer within the division.
Halladay ended up staying obviously and won’t be a free agent until the end of next year. There were a couple of starts right after the trading deadline where Halladay was mediocre by his standards, but he has pitched great in his last two starts, both wins.
Halladay’s ERA against Boston is just 1.82 in his last five starts including a complete game six-hitter at home on July 19th. The Sox will be lucky to scratch three runs off of him tonight.
Halladay tries to down BoSox
By AllStar.com
Boston Red Sox (67-51) At Toronto Blue Jays (55-62)
TV: ESPN
Line: Blue Jays -160 / Red Sox +150
Total: 8 Under -120 / Over +100
Red Sox Road Record: 29-33
Blue Jays Home Record: 31-27
Red Sox Last 10: 4-6
Blue Jays Last 10: 4-6
Pitchers:
Clay Buchholz (BOS) 1-3 / 4.45 ERA / 20 K’s / 1.79 WHIP
Roy Halladay (TOR) 13-5 / 2.65 ERA / 144 K’s / 1.08 WHIP
For a team that entered Monday 7-1/2 games back in the AL East and one-half game back of the Rangers in the wild-card race, the time is now for the Red Sox to make their push toward the postseason. It won't be an easy task for a team that's stumbled to a 12-15 record since the All-Star break.
Boston’s current problems may have started in Toronto, where it dropped two of three coming out of the All-Star break as its once-reliable offense began showing inconsistency.
The Red Sox (66-51) totaled seven runs in that series and have managed two or fewer runs 11 times since July 18, going 11-17. Nine of those low-scoring games have come on the road, where they have dropped 13 of 17.
They have lost every road series since the All-Star break except for a three-game sweep of last-place Baltimore. The momentum of an 18-10 win in the finale of that series Aug. 2 failed to carry over, with Boston since losing eight of nine road games while getting held to 27 runs and a .202 average.
Boston has won five of its nine meetings with the Blue Jays in 2009; however, they have dropped two of three in both of its three-game sets at Toronto this season.
The Red Sox have lost eight of their last nine road games, including two in a row. Boston has the second worst road record in the majors since July 18 (4-13).
Kevin Youkilis will rejoin the Red Sox's lineup on Tuesday, the first day he is eligible to return after serving a five-game suspension.
Youkilis had gone 5 for 16 in the four games leading up to his suspension, improving his average to .311 with 20 home runs and 66 RBIs.
Jason Bay has regained his power stroke and slashed five home runs in his last nine games. Jason Bay hit his 25th home run of the season on Saturday, becoming the seventh left fielder in Red Sox history to reach that figure Bay's 169 home runs since the beginning of the 2004 season ranks fifth among all outfielders over that span.
The Blue Jays have lost four of their last five games and will be looking to snap their current two-game losing streak.
Boston has lost two of three in both of its three-game sets north of the border this year.
Lyle Overbay's recent success began with a switch to the clean-up spot in the line up. Since July 10, the first baseman has hit at a .320 clip with four homers, nine RBIs, 16 runs scored and 17 walks in a 25-game span. During that period, Overbay has lifted his average to .267 from .249 and his on-base percentage to .389 from .369.
Designated hitter Randy Ruiz has recorded at least one hit in each of the past five games since being promoted from Triple-A Las Vegas.
Toronto's 3.93 ERA since the All-Star break was the third-best mark in the American League. The Yankees ranked first with a 3.39 second-half ERA and the Rangers were second with a mark of 3.50.
The Jays are fielding a team with holes at third and right field; there is also a lack of bench strength outside John McDonald, no big time run producing threat from either side of the plate, and no bona fide No.2 starter.
The Jays – when they dumped B.J. Ryan, traded Scott Rolen and let Alex Rios go on waivers– said they were freeing up money for rebuilding through free agency in the off-season but they failed to sign any of there top three draft picks.
Clay Buchholz (1-3, 4.45 ERA) was a tough-luck loser for the second time in as many starts last Thursday, allowing one earned run over a season-high seven innings against the Tigers at Fenway Park. The 24-year-old right-hander has opposed a pair of aces in New York's CC Sabathia and Detroit's Justin Verlander in his past two outings, failing to crack the win column despite posting a 2.08 ERA in 13 innings of work. He fared well against Toronto in his first start of the season back on July 17 at Rogers Centre, limiting the Blue Jays to one run on four hits over 5 2/3 frames.
Roy Halladay (13-5, 2.65 ERA) fashioned a typically dominating performance on Friday night, holding the Rays to one earned run over eight innings for his second successive win. It marked the Major League-leading 21st time in 23 starts this season that Doc has logged at least seven frames. The two exceptions book ended a stint on the disabled list earlier this season. Over his past two starts, Halladay has gone 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA. In his previous eight trips up the hill, Doc had gone just 1-4 with a 3.16 ERA. In his lone start against Boston this year, Halladay turned in a complete-game victory on July 19.
Betting Trends:
Red Sox are 1-10 in their last 11 games as an underdog
Red Sox are 5-17 in Clay Buchholz’s last 22 starts
The UNDER is 5-1 in the Red Sox last 6 road games
Blue Jays are 6-13 in their last 19 games as a FAVORITE
Blue Jays are 3-7 in Roy Halladay’s last 10 starts
The UNDER is 6-1 in the last 7 games between the two teams