Wednesday’s Streaking and Slumping Starters
Streaking
Felix Hernandez (9-10, 2.51 ERA), Seattle Mariners
If Felix Hernandez played for pretty much any other team in the league, he’d probably be mentioned as a Cy Young candidate. The 24-year-old hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a single start since June 8 and is 2-1 over his last three, allowing one unearned run over that stretch.
Hernandez also has 31 strikeouts over that span.
Ryan Dempster (11-8, 3.56 ERA), Chicago Cubs
Dempster has been the one constant for the Chicago Cubs this year. He heads into this matchup with the Nationals having gone 2-0 with a 2.11 ERA with 16 strikeouts in his last three starts. Dempster has allowed just five combined earned runs over his last five trips to the hill.
He went eight innings allowing two earned runs while sitting down seven batters in his most recent outing, a 5-3 loss to Atlanta in which he picked up a no-decision.
Slumping
Jason Marquis (0-6, 11.39 ERA), Washington Nationals
Marquis heads into Wednesay’s game still in search of his first win of the season after allowing at least five runs in four of his six 2010 starts to date. However, there are signs that he might be finally getting it together. He allowed just a single earned run over five innings against Philadelphia last week, but took a 1-0 loss against Phillies ace Roy Halladay.
Over bettors have cashed in on five of Marquis’ six starts.
Returning
Jeff Niemann (10-3, 3.12 ERA), Tampa Bay Rays
Niemann is set to make his first start after coming off the DL with a sore shoulder. He had won three of his last four before hitting the shelf on Aug. 3. Niemann has one win in three lifetime tries against Tampa Bay, putting up a 5.51 ERA.
Wednesday Tips
By Kevin Rogers
Five games take place on the Wednesday afternoon baseball card, with three contests holding playoff significance. The Rays continue to go back and forth with the Yankees atop the AL East, as Tampa Bay wraps up its trip in Anaheim against the Angels. The Reds and Giants finish up their three-game set in San Francisco, but we'll start with the NL East leaders looking for some breathing room in their division at Colorado.
Braves at Rockies - 3:10 PM EST
Atlanta has plenty to play for over the final five weeks of the season, as the Braves play the last of a three-game set at Coors Field. Bobby Cox's team leads the NL East by 2 ½ games over the Phillies, while trailing the Padres by two games for the best record in the National League. Colorado will likely miss the playoffs after winning the Wild Card last season, as the Rockies sit six games behind the Phillies for the final playoff berth in the NL.
Jair Jurrjens (5-4, 3.91 ERA) is back to his old self by delivering four straight quality starts for the Braves. The right-hander was bailed out by his lineup producing a pair of comeback road wins over the Astros and Cubs in the ninth inning. Jurrjens has taken care of business since coming off the disabled list on June 30, allowing two earned runs or less in seven of 10 starts. Since acquiring Jurrjens from the Tigers in 2008, the Braves are 5-1 in his six outings against the Rockies, including a 4-3 triumph back in April at Turner Field.
The Rockies send righty Esmil Rogers (2-2, 4.53 ERA) to the mound, who pitched a terrific game at Arizona before the Colorado bullpen blew it in a 4-3 setback. Rogers scattered six hits and one earned run in 6.1 innings of work, while striking out a career-high six against the D-Backs. The 25-year old picked up a no-decision in his last home outing, giving up nine hits and four earned runs in 5.2 innings of a 5-4 loss to the Brewers. Colorado owns a 1-4 record in Rogers' five starts, but the Milwaukee outing was his only start at Coors Field.
Atlanta and Colorado have split the first four meetings this season, while the Rockies are 6-2 the last eight matchups at home. The Braves own an 8-13 mark in road matinees, but have won three of their last four in this situation.
Rays at Angels - 3:35 PM EST
Tampa Bay finishes up its seven-game swing through the Golden State as the Rays try to capture the finale against the Angels. Joe Maddon's club lost the first two games of this trip at Oakland before winning three straight by one run apiece. The Rays have won 10 of 14 since getting swept at Toronto, while the Halos have dropped seven of 10 to basically fall out of playoff contention.
After Wade Davis took the mound on Tuesday following a stint on the DL, another tall righty has been activated as Jeff Niemann (10-3, 3.12 ERA) gets the ball on Wednesday afternoon. Niemann and Davis each went on the DL in early August with right shoulder strains, as the Rays own an impressive 9-1 mark in Niemann's 10 road starts. The former Rice Owl has delivered only one quality start in his last five outings, but the Rays are 3-0 in his three outings as a road underdog. Niemann has struggled during daytime starts, compiling an ERA of 5.18 in four matinee trips to the mound.
Dan Haren (1-4, 4.39 ERA) has seen little luck since getting dealt from Arizona to Los Angeles, winning one of six starts. Haren was knocked around at Minnesota in his last outing, allowing seven earned runs and 10 hits in seven innings of a 7-2 loss. Pitching at home hasn't helped either, with the Angels going 1-3 in four home starts, while the 'under' has hit three times. Haren hasn't faced Tampa Bay since they were the Devil Rays back in 2007, so his numbers against that team would be deemed a bit irrelevant (5-2).
Tampa Bay owns an 11-8 mark in matinee road games this season, while going 'under' in four straight away contests during the day against right-handed starting pitchers. The Halos are an impressive 6-1 at home in games under the sun against righty starters.
Reds at Giants - 3:45 PM EST
A pair of young hurlers takes the mound in the series finale between a division leader and a club right outside the playoff race in San Francisco. The Reds are back atop the NL Central after an 8-2 run, while the Giants are within striking distance in both the NL West and NL Wild Card races, but need to make a push right now.
Rookie Madison Bumgarner (5-4, 3.20 ERA) is coming off a pair of impressive efforts against the Padres and Cardinals his last two times out, allowing four earned runs in 14 innings of work. Bumgarner has not registered a victory at home in four starts, as the Giants won in walk-off fashion against San Diego and Chicago. The 'over' registered at St. Louis in his last start ended a 7-1 'under' run, as Bumgarner's previous three home outings have cashed the 'under.'
The Reds counter with Homer Bailey (3-2, 4.52 ERA), who has been extremely solid since re-entering the rotation. Bailey has yielded seven hits and one earned run in 13 innings in wins over the Marlins and Dodgers, while easily hitting the 'under' each time. The right-hander doesn't have the best track record against the Giants, allowing 10 earned runs in 11.2 innings of two starts in 2009, as the Reds split those games.
San Francisco has profited nicely in day games at AT&T Park against right-handed starters, going 12-6 this season. Despite falling in the series opener on Monday, the Reds are 12-3 the previous 15 games on the highway.
vegasinsider.com
MLB RoundUp For 8/25
By Dan Bebe
National League
Braves (-125) @ Rockies with a total of 9
I'm not a monster fan of Jurrjens and his teammates on the road, but at this price, it's almost too good to pass up. I don't believe it's a shady line, since we've seen all 3 games in this series hovering between Braves as a small favorite and a pick. Yes, Rogers is coming off his only good start since hitting the Bigs, but how good will he really be in only his 2nd career start in Coors Field? My guess is not that great. Jurrjens is 4-1 with a 3.02 ERA lifetime against the Rockies, and he seems to be rounding into form, healthwise, or at least his numbers would seem to indicate as such. He has strung together 4 straight quality starts, and the Braves have won all 4.
Reds @ Giants (-111) with a total of 8
Let's not forget, Homer Bailey was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball near the end of 2009, so the fact that he's back, healthy, and dealing shouldn't be a huge surprise. Since returning from injury, Bailey has gone 13 innings over 2 starts, allowing just 1 combined run on only 7 hits to the Marlins and Dodgers. I expect another decent showing against the Giants. Bumgarner just continues to rumble right along, giving solid outings every time and putting the Giants in a position to win, or at least compete. I don't much care for the side in this one, as I feel the game is close to a coin flip, anyway, but the Under in the afternoon is a possibility.
Cubs (-120) @ Nationals with a total of 8.5
Here's an interesting one. The line certainly isn't all that tasty for a bad team on the road, but at the same time can we really put our money behind Jason Marquis? The guy is 0-6 with an ERA of 11.39 this year, for goodness sakes. He did pitch better in his last start, in Philadelphia, but still isn't going deeper than 5 innings in any game. Could it really be this easy? The Cubs hit the ball well in the opener, and maybe the new Manager syndrome is kicking in for a few days? Either way, Dempster is 6-1 with a 3.18 ERA lifetime against the Nats, and only Ryan Zimmerman has really given him any trouble in the past. I don't know, sometimes I think lines really are gifts. Tough call, though.
Astros @ Phillies (-325) with a total of 7
Don't even stop to think about it. Put a quarter unit on the Astros, and a quarter on the dog RL and just move on to the next one. Hell, we even have a revenge angle!
Cardinals (-169) @ Pirates with a total of 8.5
We might also be hitting that point where the Pirates are just a fade every time out, so awful in every respect that there's simply no point in even considering them. Karstens, for what it's worth, is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA against the Cardinals, so at this price, I'd just stay away from this game, altogether.
Marlins @ Mets (-125) with a total of 8
This line is low for a reason. And yes, I'm trying to be more decisive in my writeups, if you're wondering. Sanabia is just a youngster, but he's been serviceable, only making one truly awful start, and that came in San Francisco. He bounced back his last time out with the best start of his young career with 7.2 solid innings against the hapless Pirates. Today, he'll get a better test, but I suspect we'll get about 5 innings of 2 run ball out of Sanabia. Not good, by any stretch, but not bad, and definitely enough to keep the Marlins in this one. Pelfrey hates facing Florida. Flat out - he got roughed up by them earlier this year in Puerto Rico, and he's been slapped around by the Marlins throughout his career. I know he's on a little bit of a "warm" streak, but I wouldn't touch this eerily low line on a big name starter at home. Marlins or nothing.
Dodgers @ Brewers (-110) with a total of 8
This line is interesting only because it's all kinds of crazy compared to yesterday's number. Ted Lilly opened as a -140 road favorite over Dave Bush, and today's matchup, which features pitchers of almost the exact same numbers, is a good 30-50 cents off from that number, depending on where you look. Kuroda is 1-0 with a 7.36 ERA against the Brewers, so that might have something to do with it, but considering how well he's pitched in his last 3 starts, this game is a true head-scratcher. After trying to be extra-decisive above, now I'm slipping back into waffling mode. Given the Dodgers are about ready to unload Manny Ramirez, something tells me they won't score much this series.
D'backs @ Padres (-166) with a total of 8
This line is pretty fair. Of course, that also means it's too high for me to back the favorite, and not enough reason to back the dog. Screw this one.
American League
Royals @ Tigers (-165) with a total of 9.5
This line is actually a little cheaper than I expected, and again I can't help but worry that there's this impending sense of doom at Comerica. Sure, the Tigers whipped up on Bruce Chen, and they've been hitting the ball extremely well on this cake of a homestand, but shouldn't Galarraga's namesake get this thing up to -175? Well, believe it or not, I happen to think that at -165, this Tigers side might still hold some value. Galarraga has solid career numbers against KC (2-0, 2.78), and he's coming off his best start since the almost-perfect game (also had 8 strikeouts). I don't play home run lines, so either lay the chalk or leave the day tilt alone.
Mariners @ Red Sox (-150) with a total of 7.5
It's funny, actually. Two of the most electric starters going head-to-head in this one, and I have almost zero opinion on the game. I honestly just don't feel like I have a good read on the Red Sox right now, and the Mariners seem to stink, but then jump up and win one when you least expect it every so often. King Felix should keep them in the game, and Lester is outstanding and on bounceback. I might look at the Over, but I'd rather just move on.
Rays @ Angels (-120) with a total of 8.5
I know I said I don't like backing guys coming off an arm situation, but Niemann has been a complete cash cow this year. On top of that, he beat the Angels here in Anaheim earlier this year, so we know he's comfortable on this mound. And even on top of that, Dan Haren is continuing to get ace-like betting love even though his ERA is 4.55, and he's coming off getting drilled by the Twins. The guy just isn't having his type of year, and getting an amazing road club at a dog price is pretty darn tempting. The concern, of course, is whether Niemann's shoulder is alright, because backing an injured pitcher is a sure way to age at double-speed.
Athletics (-150) @ Indians with a total of 7.5
Looking at the stats and box scores, it appears that Mitch Talbot has just about run out of steam for 2010. Arm fatigue, perhaps, but he was slowing heading into the All Star Break, had about 2 decent starts coming out of the Break, then ran out of gas, again. We faded him in his last start, and everything was going swimmingly until the KC bullpen melted down in dramatic fashion. Trevor Cahill is having a ridiculous season, now 13-5 with a 2.54 ERA for a team that's hovering right around .500. Very impressive. He's 0-1 with a 12.27 ERA against the Indians, though, and I can't help but think that if he walks a few guys, and Talbot stinks again, we could get to 8 runs.
Yankees (-132) @ Blue Jays with a total of 8.5
With Toronto playing with a bit of a chip on their shoulder, I'm not sure I could bet the Yankees in any game this series. I know the numbers probably say that Hughes is the way to go with this one, but he's been a little up-and-down against the Jays, and Toronto's power is always threatening. Plus, he seems to be going shorter distances in games, even when he pitches well. Cecil is a solid young arm, not great against the Yankees, but I think this game is about a 50/50 proposition, so at the price listed, it's Jays or nothing at all. As you all know, when I say that, I'm usually leaning towards the nothing at all option, but hey, you never know.
Twins @ Rangers (-144) with a total of 8.5
What the hell, man? Why didn't someone tell me Brian Duensing was going to roll back into the Bigs and crush fools? I mean, damn. He's 1-1 with a 1.74 ERA against the Rangers, and should probably put together another decent start. C.J. Wilson is coming off a dominant performance in Baltimore (with the help of a truly colossal strike zone), and though he's 0-2 with a 3.41 ERA against the Twins, he's certainly a threat to throw another solid game. I'd say the one thing tipping the scales towards the Rangers is that Minnesota has looked out of sorts a bit, the last couple games, and Duensing has been markedly better at home, which is pretty impressive considering he hasn't been that bad on the road. Wilson, by the way, had a great game going against the Twins earlier this year, but made a few mistakes, and the Twins hit them all hard as hell.
Orioles @ White Sox (-185) with a total of 9
There's always value with a motivated dog. That being said, unless we're putting some money on Baltimore every single game from this point forward, this game, to me, doesn't look like the best time to jump on the bandwagon. Buerhle is 5-4 with a 2.81 ERA against the O's, and while Matusz is coming off a strong start at home, he's still pretty damn erratic. Again, I'm not backing the White Sox, either, but with the Sox desperately needing wins, the Orioles will probably sneak a game in this series, but I'd feel better backing Baltimore in a series that means less to its opponent.
Diamond Trends - Wednesday
By Vince Akins
Rays at Angels – The Rays are 8-0 since April 13, 2010 when Jeff Niemann starts when he is off a start in which he needed fewer than 3.5 pitches per batter for a net profit of $880. The Angels are 6-0 since April 10, 2010 as a home favorite when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $600.
Yankees at Blue Jays – The Yankees are 0-5 since July 30, 2010 after a 5+ run win for a net profit of $645 when playing against. The Blue Jays are 6-0 since July 26, 2009 when Brett Cecil starts at home after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $620.
Dodgers at Brewers – The Dodgers are 0-7 since October 18, 2009 when Hiroki Kuroda starts as a road dog for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Dodgers are 0-6 since July 28, 2010 as a dog when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Brewers are 0-7 since May 12, 2010 as a home favorite when they won by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $860 when playing against.
Reds at Giants – The Reds are 7-0 since August 28, 2009 when Homer Bailey starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $780. The Giants are 6-0 since April 27, 2010 within 20 cents of pickem after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $645.
Athletics at Indians – The Indians are 0-6 since May 04, 2010 as a dog after a loss in which they were shut out in the first 6 innings and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $600 when playing against.
Marlins at Mets – The Mets are 0-8 since June 26, 2010 after a win in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $940 when playing against. The Mets are 0-8 since July 01, 2010 after a one run win for a net profit of $885 when playing against.
Cubs at Nationals – The Cubs are 0-12 since May 04, 2010 after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $1390 when playing against. The Nationals are 0-7 since June 03, 2010 within 20 cents of pickem and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $715 when playing against.
Diamondbacks at Padres – The Diamondbacks are 0-13 since May 25, 2010 on the road vs a divisional foe that is ahead of them in the divisional standings for a net profit of $1305 when playing against. The Padres are 10-0 since May 30, 2010 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1000.
Astros at Phillies – The Phillies are 8-0 since June 25, 2010 when Roy Halladay starts as a 200+ favorite for a net profit of $800. The Phillies are 7-0 since June 04, 2010 as a home favorite when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $700.
Cardinals at Pirates – The Pirates are 0-6 since September 07, 2009 when Daniel McCutchen starts when the bullpen has allowed at least one run for two straight games for a net profit of $600 when playing against.
Twins at Rangers – The Twins are 6-0 since April 27, 2010 when their starter went at least eight innings in his last start after a loss for a net profit of $620. The Rangers are 6-0 since July 25, 2010 as a 140+ favorite when they won the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $600.
Mariners at Red Sox – The Mariners are 0-6 since April 26, 2010 when Felix Hernandez starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $820 when playing against. The Red Sox are 6-0 since May 20, 2010 after a win in which they drew 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $650. The Red Sox are 0-4 since July 18, 2010 when Jon Lester starts at home for a net profit of $740 when playing against.
Braves at Rockies – The Braves are 0-4 since June 16, 2009 when Jair Jurrjens starts as a favorite after the team lost their last two games for a net profit of $690 when playing against.
Royals at Tigers – The Royals are 0-7 since July 20, 2010 as a dog when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Tigers are 9-0 since June 12, 2010 as a home favorite after a win in which they had 12+ hits for a net profit of $900.
Orioles at White Sox – The Orioles are 0-9 since April 07, 2010 as a road 170+ dog after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The White Sox are 8-0 since June 10, 2010 at home when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit for a net profit of $810. The White Sox are 6-0 since August 17, 2009 when Mark Buehrle starts after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start for a net profit of $605.