Wednesday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals (11-3, 2.93 ERA)
The Cardinals veteran righty has been stellar in his last four starts, going 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA. Carpenter’s most recent outing was an eight-inning shutout effort in which he allowed just five hits and struck out six batters in a 1-0 no-decision over the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Cy Young contender has also dominated his divisional foes this year, going 11-0 with a 1.58 ERA in 15 outings versus National League Central teams.
Anibal Sanchez, Florida Marlins (8-6, 3.33 ERA)
The Marlins righty has just one win in his last three outings, with two no-decisions, but he his carrying a slim 1.71 ERA and 17 strikeouts during that span. His last start was a complete-game shutout against the San Francisco Giants in which he allowed just one hit and walked only one batter.
Slumping
Edwin Jackson, Chicago White Sox (6-10, 5.16 ERA)
The former Arizona Diamondbacks hurler makes his debut with the Chicago White Sox Wednesday after being dealt during the trade deadline this past week. Jackson will to squaring off against another former team in the Tigers, hoping to snap a four-game losing skid in Comerica Park. The righty has a 7.25 ERA over those four outings. In 2009, while with Detroit, Jackson went 7-3 with a 4.27 ERA in 15 games inside Comerica Park.
Brian Matusz, Baltimore Orioles (3-11, 5.46 ERA)
The Orioles starter hasn’t won a game since the Fourth of July, going 0-2 with a 12.46 ERA in his four outings since. In his last trip to the bump, Matusz allowed five earned runs on two hits while walking four batters in only 3 1-3 innings pitched for a no-decision against the Kansas City Royals. The funny thing is the left hander had a no-hitter through four innings before the wheels fell off.
Wednesday Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Wednesday baseball card has plenty of action throughout the day and night as five games take place under the sun. We'll take a look at several matchups inside the American League, including the Angels and Red Sox trying to clean up against last-place teams. Let's start in the Motor City with the Tigers looking to make up ground on the first-place team in the AL Central.
White Sox at Tigers - 7:05 PM EST
Chicago stumbled out of the gate, starting 9-14 after the first month. Ozzie Guillen's team has responded with a 50-31 mark since May 1 to take firm control of the AL Central, passing the Twins and Tigers in the process. The Sox continue their four-game set at Comerica Park, as a former Tiger makes his return to Detroit.
Edwin Jackson (6-10, 5.16 ERA) goes from the bottom-feeder Diamondbacks to a legit playoff contender at the trade deadline, as the White Sox needed to acquire another right-handed arm following the injury to Jake Peavy. Jackson has largely been a disappointment this season, but will be remembered for his 149-pitch effort in a no-hitter at Tampa Bay in late June. This will not be Jackson's first start at Comerica Park since getting dealt to Arizona last season, as the righty beat the Tigers in interleague play back in June. The D-Backs rode an 'over' streak in eight of Jackson's last nine starts before his trade.
Detroit sends out Armando Galarraga (3-3, 4.28 ERA), who received a no-decision in his last start at Boston. The Tigers did manage to cash as $2.35 underdogs, holding off a late Boston rally in a 6-5 victory that went 'over' the total of 8 ½. Galarraga has struggled to find consistency since his near-perfect game against Cleveland, putting together quality starts in only three of his previous nine outings. Detroit is 3-1 in Galarraga's four career starts against Chicago, including a 7-2 victory as a short 'dog at U.S. Cellular Field on June 8.
The White Sox own a 4-1 mark against the Tigers this season, as Chicago pounded Detroit on Tuesday afternoon, 12-2. Detroit has compiled an 8-6 mark as a home underdog this season, but is just 1-4 the last five in this situation.
Twins at Rays - 7:10 PM EST
Tampa Bay is back to its early-season form when the Rays busted out of the gate at 17-5. The Rays are riding a 9-2 run, while going 22-7 since the end of June to tie the Yankees for first place in the AL East. The Twins fell back to Earth after an eight-game winning streak with Monday's 4-2 loss to the Rays. Things don't get easier for Minnesota, as it faces the American League's leader in wins.
David Price (14-5, 2.90 ERA) picked up consecutive victories for the first time since June 15 as the Rays beat the Tigers, 4-2 in his last outing. The Rays' southpaw has put together quality starts in eight of his previous 10 trips to the mound, while all nine starts at Tropicana Field have been quality ones. Price was on the losing end of a 2-1 setback at Minnesota last month, despite scattering four hits and two earned runs in eight innings of work. The former top pick struck out 11 in just 5.2 innings of a 5-2 home win over the Twins last May.
Last season's ace for the Twins hasn't lived up to expectations, as Scott Baker (9-9, 5.00 ERA) goes for his 10th win of the season. Many of the right-hander's problems have come on the highway, with Minnesota losing seven of his 10 away starts. Baker is fresh off back-to-back wins over the Orioles and Mariners, a nice change from the 11 earned runs allowed in losses to the Indians and Blue Jays in his two previous starts. However, Baker was on the winning side of that 2-1 home triumph over Price and the Rays on July 2, striking out eight in seven solid innings.
Tampa Bay is 4-1 this season against Minnesota, while the last five meetings at home have finished 'under' the total. Each club is still dealing with key injuries, as Joe Mauer is limited to the DH role with right shoulder issues, while both Ben Zobrist (back) and Carlos Pena (ankle) are dealing with other ailments for the Rays.
Indians at Red Sox - 7:10 PM EST
The Indians have quietly been on fire, even though no one is going to celebrate a three-game winning streak. Cleveland took the final two games at Toronto, the second road series victory since the All-Star Break after knocking off Minnesota at Target Field. The Tribe has won 11 of 18 games since the break, as they continue their series at Fenway Park against the Red Sox.
Jon Lester (11-6, 3.05 ERA) has burned bettors over his last three starts, losing 5.9 units in defeats to the Tigers, Mariners, and Rangers. The Sox southpaw has struck out 26 in this stretch, but allowed eight earned runs in the previous two outings. Lester has been the ace of this Boston rotation, as he owns a 6-3 mark at Fenway, despite one home win since mid-June. The Sox are 6-1 in his seven career starts against the Indians, with the only loss coming at Progressive Field on June 10 in an 8-7 defeat, as Boston squandered a 5-0 lead.
The Indians counter with former Red Sox prospect Justin Masterson (3-10, 5.55 ERA), who is coming off his worst start of the season. Masterson allowed 13 hits and eight earned runs of an 8-1 drubbing at Toronto, his sixth road defeat of 2010. The Indians have been automatic 'fade' material when Masterson takes the ball on the highway, going 3-9 while getting outscored by three runs/game. Masterson did get revenge on his former team by tossing a complete game gem on June 9, beating the Red Sox, 11-0 as a $1.60 home 'dog.
Despite pulling off the win on Monday, the Indians are 2-8 the last 10 games at Fenway Park dating back to 2008. Cleveland's offense has woken up against Boston over the last three meetings, averaging over eight runs/game.
vegasinsider.com
MLB RoundUp For 8/4
By Dan Bebe
National League
Reds (-160) @ Pirates with a total of 8
This one looks pretty lopsided, given Cueto's 8-2 career mark against the Pirates and 3.00 ERA, as well as Karstens' 0-3, 6.45 mark against the Reds. That being said, it seems like Cueto has gotten a little lucky, as Garrett Jones, Andy LaRoche, and Andrew McCutchen have all had significant success against him in the past, while the current Reds haven't hit Karstens all that hard, at least not on paper. Cueto has faced the Pirates twice this year, already, and the Reds are 1-1 in those games, with Cueto pitching much better at home. Karstens has not faced this iteration of the Cincinnati Reds. I suppose I'd be careful; these afternoon games often feature weird line-ups, and Cueto isn't exactly coming off a world-beater of a start.
Brewers @ Cubs (-150) with a total of N/A
This is another pretty expensive line to get the card started in the afternoon, and, again, on paper, it looks easier than it actually is. Parra is 0-1 with a 5.84 ERA against the Cubs, but if you dig deeper, Alfonso Soriano is 3-for-5 off him, and Xavier Nady is 2-for-2, but that's about it. Ryan Dempster is a colossal 13-3 with a 2.69 ERA lifetime against the Brewers, but has been wildly up-and-down against them just in 2010, and Rickie Weeks, Casey McGehee, Jim Edmonds and Prince Fielder have all done some damage against Dempster. This is another game where I'd be very careful before laying the fat price. Dog or nothing on each of these first two afternoon tilts.
Giants @ Rockies (-174) with a total of 8
Bumgarner is certainly getting the trial by fire test at Coors Field. He's been in the Bigs, what, a month and some and he's already going to pitch in altitude twice? He had himself what I'd call a "Coors quality" start, going 7 innings and allowing just 4 runs, and giving up just 1 homer. He gave his team a chance in this high-scoring venue, and his season numbers and composure would indicate he can do the same, again. Jimenez is the wild card, here. Remember how easy it was to handicap Ubaldo in April and May? Well, those days are done - he's alternating awful and good starts, and he's coming off a good one. The Giants are hitting better, but it's tough to know if we're going to see the Jimenez that walks 6, or the one that commands his opponents with an iron fist. Pass.
Mets @ Braves (-155) with a total of 8.5
Ah, the power of regression. After a very strong start to the year for Mike Pelfrey, he has found his way right back to where he always is, just over a 4 ERA. Though, I can't help but wonder if he picked up some sort of weird disease in Puerto Rico, since he really hasn't been the same after getting pummeled by the Marlins down South. In any case, the Braves hit Pelfrey hard, especially so here in Atlanta, and I don't expect him to accomplish much. Medlen, too, has been on a downward progression as the League adjusts to his role as a starter. Neither starter has done anything impressive, and I suppose if I had to rank them, Pelfrey has been a shade worse. The Over is a possibility if the Mets could hit on the road.
Phillies @ Marlins (-135) with a total of 8.5
How good have the Marlins been since the Break? Very impressive, I'd say, and Anibal Sanchez has been playing just as big a part as anyone, throwing a 1-hit shutout in San Francisco in his last start. He doesn't have a particularly strong history against the Phils, but has been very good in one start against them this year, and pretty bad in another, so we're sort of up a creek on that part. Kendrick is 3-2 against Florida, but has a 5.83 ERA, so he, too, has struggled in this match-up. The Phillies are fighting the injury bug, and haven't been playing particularly well on the road, but Kendrick has actually been one of the team's brightest spots this month. Tough call, though you have to give the slight edge to the favorite, just knowing how well the Marlins have been playing, including the usually-scary bullpen.
Astros @ Cardinals (-230) with a total of 7
This one is way out of our price range, and considering Carpenter's strong history against Houston and Happ's 0-1, 5.11 ERA against St. Louis, let's leave this one alone.
Nationals @ D'backs (-140) with a total of 9.5
This line actually seems somewhat cheap, considering Rodrigo Lopez was laying -125 to Livan Hernandez, and clearly, Ian Kennedy is better than Lopez and Stammen is not as good as Hernandez. This makes me think that either Stammen is going to pitch well, or Kennedy is going to pitch poorly, and the books are aware of the perception of these guys. Stammen is actually on a run of 3 decent starts (well, 2 of 3, really, were pretty good), and Kennedy is clearly fighting some sort of arm fatigue. He hasn't really made it through a full season, before, and it's not easy to get that tired limb fired up every 5th day when you have nothing to play for.
Padres @ Dodgers (-135) with a total of 7
I know folks are going to want to back the Dodgers, since Padilla has the name recognition, but really, since LeBlanc went back down to the Minors and figured things out with his confidence, he's been solid, especially against the Dodgers. He did lose a decision to them, 1-0 earlier this year, but it's hard to fault the pitcher in that one. Padilla is making his second straight start against the Padres, only going 4 innings in his last one, which was a struggle. If the Dodgers can find a way to score a few runs, they could be pretty darn good, but sadly, such does not appear to be the case, at least not since the Break.
American League
Blue Jays @ Yankees (-180) with a total of 9.5
Hughes seemed to get a little confidence back in his last start, but made one key mistake and it cost the Yankees the game. I don't want to get into the details on this one, since the side is too expensive, especially with Marcum posting a career 6.39 ERA against the Yankees, but I would also offer that Phil Hughes wasn't very good against the Jays the one time he faced them, this season. I don't like the side, at all, but that total is extremely high, and our job here is to decide if it's high for a reason (which seems to be the case, with both teams hitting pretty well in the series, so far), or if it's a gift for fans of the Under. I happen to think we see a couple dingers.
Royals @ Athletics (-185) with a total of 8
This one is truly out of our price range. With as poorly as the Royals have been playing, they're not a good play, and with Brett Anderson still trying to get healthy, they're not a good play, either.
White Sox @ Tigers (-110) with a total of 9
Edwin Jackson returns to Motown, but now, with the ChiSox, as his World Tour of MLB continues. Less than 1 year ago, Jackson was a Tiger, and since has been with the D'backs and now the Pale Hose, and actually does have decent numbers against Detroit and at Comerica Park. Armando Galarraga toes the rubber for the Tigers, who might get Brandon Inge back for this one, which, despite his relatively weak offensive skills, is absolutely an upgrade over the scrubs Detroit's been forced to play on the infield. Peralta will move over to shortstop, and whichever utility man is hottest will play 2nd base. Makes sense, I guess. I like Detroit to compete hard, and I wonder about Jackson this year, as he just continues to serve up hits. Of course, pitching for a team in a pennant race might wake him up?
Angels (-145) @ Orioles with a total of 9
See, now this line is more like what I expected in this series. The Angels are laying some chalk, with the superior starter and the team playing for something. Is the Trevor Bell to Santana increase really worth this much? Is Jeremy Guthrie really that much better than Brian Matusz? Really makes you think that sometimes folks can truly predict exactly how a game is going to go. Okay, so, we have a fair line, and the Angels are 1 game removed from the tough series with Texas. Brian Matusz has been pretty disastrous at times, this year, and Santana has returned to his solid #2 form behind Jered Weaver. Santana has had some issues with the Orioles in the past, though, so this one isn't a sure thing, and certainly isn't a run-line candidate.
Indians @ Red Sox (-270) with a total of 8.5
A little expensive, don't you think?
Twins @ Rays (-180) with a total of 8
This one is too expensive, as well, as I still feel strongly that Tampa gets it done in this series, and I'm not about to lay 180, even if I feel strongly that the Rays take care of business. They're doing a ton of their scoring via the home run ball, and that's a little finicky. I'd rather leave this one alone, especially since Baker has been having something of a mini-resurgence over his last few starts.
Rangers (-155) @ Mariners with a total of 7
Don't get me wrong, I like some of the young guys in the Seattle rotation, but there's a huge problem - they don't strike people out. They can sort of escape, pitching in such a dead-ball stadium up in Seattle, but it's always just a matter of time before the wheels come off, and three or four of those "balls in play" fall in for hits. This line is pretty fair, but should draw a ton of public money on the Rangers side. That being said, Fister pitched extremely well (8 innings, 0 runs) in his one start against Texas, this year, and Wilson has been solid against Seattle, twice. I think the one game hangover from playing the Angels should have worn off by this one, and the Mariners offense is just the worst I've seen in a while. I can't play the Mariners against a good team, I just can't.
Tips and Trends
Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
White Sox: Chicago is cruising along at 60-45 SU this season, the best mark in the American League Central. The White Sox are in a battle with the Twins and the rest of the Wild Card hopefuls in the American League for a postseason berth. Chicago has competed quite well on the road this season, going 27-25 SU. The White Sox are +12.38 and +7.13 units both SU and on the RL this year. P Edwin Jackson will make his first start for the White Sox since being traded from Arizona. Jackson will look to earn his teammates respect with a gutsy road performance against a good home team in the Tigers. Chicago is 26-8 in their last 34 games against a right-handed starter. The White Sox are 12-4 in their last 16 road games against a team with a losing record. The White Sox are 37-15 in their last 52 games on grass. Chicago is 16-40 in their last 56 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%.
White Sox are 21-5 last 26 games against a team with a losing record.
Under is 8-1 last 9 road games against a team with a losing record.
Key Injuries - RF Carlos Quentin (rest) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5
Tigers (-107, O/U 9): That noise you hear is the sound of the Tigers season coming to an abrupt halt. Detroit has been atrocious of late, so bad that they now have a losing record on the season at 52-53 SU. Detroit now trails the White Sox by 8 games in the American League Central division. Detroit is -1.04 and +4.11 units both SU and on the RL respectively this year. P Armando Galarraga will make the home start tonight, as he is 3-3 with an ERA of 4.28 and a WHIP of 1.29 this year. Of course nobody can forget the perfect game all for not earlier this season by Galarraga. The Tigers are 22-6 in their last 28 home games against a team with a winning road record. Detroit is 36-17 in their last 53 home games overall. The Tigers are 3-13 in their last 16 games against a right-handed starter. Detroit is 1-5 in their last 6 games during game 3 of a series. Detroit is 5-2 in Galarraga's last 7 home starts. The Tigers are 7-3 in Galarraga's last 10 starts.
Tigers are 1-6 last 7 games against a team with a winning record.
Under is 7-2 last 9 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Key Injuries - LF Johnny Damon (back) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 7 (OVER - Total of the Day)
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
Padres: San Diego is looking to not only win their division, but also finish the regular season with the best record in the National League. The Padres have dominated wherever they've played, whoever they've played. San Diego is 62-42 SU this season, including 29-20 SU on the road. San Diego is +23.97 and +14.27 units both SU and on the RL respectively this season. P Wade LeBlanc will take the mound tonight, as he is 5-9 with an ERA of 3.49 and a WHIP of 1.41 this year. The Padres are 7-1 in their last 8 games against the National League West. San Diego is 8-2 in their last 10 Wednesday games. The Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a right-handed starter. San Diego is 9-3 in their last 12 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Padres are 2-5 in LeBlanc's last 7 starts overall. San Diego is 0-4 in LeBlanc's last 4 starts against a team with a winning record.
Padres are 9-1 last 10 games during game 3 of a series.
Over is 10-3 last 13 games against the National League West.
Key Injuries - 2B David Eckstein (calf) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 2
Dodgers (-133, O/U 7): Los Angeles is desperate for any and all wins at this stage in the season. The Dodgers are only 54-52 SU this season, 9 full games behind their opponent today, the San DIego Padres in the National League West division. In a competitive division, the Dodgers simply can't afford to lose any more ground. Los Angeles is really struggling to score right now, as they've scored 3 runs or less in 8 of their past 10 games. Los Angeles is -6.82 and -10.07 units both SU and on the RL this season. P Vicente Padilla will make the home start tonight, as he is 4-3 with an ERA of 3.47 and a WHIP of 1.03 this year. The Dodgers are 3-8 in their last 11 home games against a left-handed starter. Los Angeles is 0-6 in their last 6 games against the National League West. The Dodgers are 7-2 in Padilla's last 9 starts against the National League West. Los Angeles is 5-2 in Padilla's last 7 starts during game 3 of a series. The Dodgers are 5-2 in Padilla's last 7 home starts overall. Los Angeles is 1-5 in Padilla's last 6 starts against a team with a winning record.
Dodgers are 2-5 last 7 games during game 3 of a series.
Over is 4-1 last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Key Injuries - LF Manny Ramirez (calf) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 4 (Side of the Day)
Diamond Trends - Wednesday
By Vince Akins
Mets at Braves – The Mets are 0-10 since June 26, 2009 as a 140+ dog after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The Braves are 7-0 since May 08, 2010 after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $776. The Braves are 9-0 since June 03, 2010 when Kris Medlen starts after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $985.
Astros at Cardinals – The Cardinals are 7-0 since April 21, 2010 when Chris Carpenter starts as a favorite after more strike outs than hits allowed for a net profit of $700. The Cardinals are 6-0 since August 22, 2009 when Chris Carpenter starts vs a team that won their starters last two starts for a net profit of $600.
Brewers at Cubs – The Brewers are 0-5 since April 26, 2009 when Manny Parra starts vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $585 when playing against. The Cubs are 6-0 since July 02, 2009 when Ryan Dempster starts after losing as an away dog in his last start for a net profit of $660.
Nationals at Diamondbacks – The Nationals are 0-10 since May 16, 2010 when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1035 when playing against. The Nationals are 0-6 since August 01, 2009 when Craig Stammen starts on the road after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $605 when playing against.
Padres at Dodgers – The Padres are 9-0 since July 24, 2009 as a road dog after a loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base for a net profit of $1120.
Rangers at Mariners – The Rangers are 6-0 since April 22, 2010 when C.J. Wilson starts vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $720. The Mariners are 0-8 since May 18, 2009 as a dog when they are off a win in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Mariners are 0-8 since July 30, 2009 as a 140+ dog after a one run win for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Mariners are 0-7 since April 24, 2010 when Doug Fister starts after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $745 when playing against.
Phillies at Marlins – The Phillies are 5-0 since May 28, 2010 when Kyle Kendrick starts vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $550.
Angels at Orioles – The Angels are 0-8 since May 20, 2009 when Ervin Santana starts as a 140+ favorite after his team won the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $1160 when playing against. The Orioles are 0-7 since April 13, 2010 when Brian Matusz starts at home after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $730 when playing against.
Reds at Pirates – The Pirates are 0-9 since July 08, 2010 as a 140+ dog vs a divisional foe that is ahead of them in the divisional standings for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Pirates are 0-7 since June 08, 2010 when Jeff Karstens starts as a 140+ dog for a net profit of $700 when playing against.
Twins at Rays – The Twins are 7-0 since July 12, 2009 when Scott Baker starts after he had a WHIP of at least 2 his last start for a net profit of $705. The Rays are 7-0 since May 07, 2010 when David Price starts as a 140+ favorite after a quality start for a net profit of $700.
Indians at Red Sox – The Indians are 0-8 since August 08, 2009 when Justin Masterson starts on the road after his team scored a total of fewer than three runs in his last start for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Red Sox are 8-0 since July 11, 2009 as a home 140+ favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $800.
Giants at Rockies – The Rockies are 10-0 since May 12, 2009 as a home 140+ favorite vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $1000. The Rockies are 7-0 since July 22, 2009 when Ubaldo Jimenez starts at home when the start time is earlier than 4:00 PM local time for a net profit of $700.
White Sox at Tigers – The White Sox are 7-0 since April 14, 2010 on the road after a loss in which they were shut out in the first 6 innings for a net profit of $870.
Blue Jays at Yankees – The Blue Jays are 0-8 since May 21, 2009 as a 170+ dog and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Yankees are 8-0 since August 02, 2009 after a 5+ run loss and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $805. The Yankees are 6-0 since May 15, 2009 when Philip Hughes starts at home after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $600.