Wednesday Winners
By Kevin Rogers
Thursday afternoon is usually the getaway day in baseball, but Wednesday features a handful of games with teams that are escaping town. The night slate does highlight several matchups with key playoff implications, specifically in the American League.
Red Sox at Rays (7:05 PM EST)
An odd August series concludes at Tropicana Field, as the Rays and Red Sox wrap up a quick two-game set. The Rays are trying to make up ground on both Boston and New York in the AL East, as it's looking more and more that the team that finishes second in the division will win the Wild Card.
David Price (4-4, 5.10 ERA) sealed Boston's fate in the ALCS last season, recording the final out of the Game 7 victory at home. This will be Price's first start against the Sox, as the young lefty is still trying to find consistency in his initial season as a starter. Price has been solid at home, compiling a 4-1 mark, while allowing three earned runs in his last three home starts. Price's problem comes when the sun goes down. The Rays southpaw is just 1-4 with an ERA of 6.48 at night this season, while Tampa Bay is 2-5 in his seven night outings.
Brad Penny (7-5, 5.07 ERA) has incurred plenty of problems away from Fenway Park, as the Red Sox are 3-6 in his nine road starts. Penny was touched up by a non-descript Oakland squad his last time out, allowing seven earned runs in five innings of work. Penny has delivered a pair of quality starts against the Rays this season, going 1-1.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants has installed the Rays as a $1.15 home favorite, with the total listed at 10.
Rockies at Phillies (7:05 PM EST)
A pair of left-handers look to keep up their winning ways, as Colorado and Philadelphia meet up for the second game of their three-game set.
J.A. Happ (7-2, 2.97 ERA) has dropped two straight outings after winning his first five decisions as a starter. The Phillies southpaw was roughed up by the Cardinals, but delivered a quality start in a loss at Arizona. The 'under' has hit in Happ's last six starts, as seven or less combined runs have been scored five times in this span. The Phillies are 1-3 in Happ's last four starts as a home favorite.
Jorge De La Rosa (9-7, 4.68 ERA) has been one of the hotter pitchers in baseball over the last six weeks. The Rockies are 7-0 in De La Rosa's last seven starts, while the lefty has delivered a quality start in six straight appearances. One criticism of De La Rosa's hot run may be the competition he's faced, seeing five teams out of contention (Nationals, Diamondbacks, Mets, A's, and Pirates). De La Rosa's road numbers have been strong, at 4-2, with the Rockies winning six of his nine away starts.
The Phillies are a $1.40 home 'chalk,' with the total set at 9 ½, according to LVSC.
Angels at White Sox (8:10 PM EST)
The Halos are by far the hottest team in baseball, winning 17 of 20. Los Angeles is doing this without its top two power threats, Vladmir Guerrero and Torii Hunter. Since Hunter has been out of the lineup with a groin injury, the Angels have nailed 13 straight 'overs,' to go along with an 11-2 mark.
Sean O'Sullivan (3-0, 3.72 ERA) looks to keep up his winning ways, as the righty makes his first start since July 21 against Kansas City. The Angels have won comfortably in O'Sullivan's five starts, picking up four victories by at least three runs.
Gavin Floyd (8-6, 4.07 ERA) tries to follow up a 10-strikeout effort against the Yankees, allowing only four hits in seven innings of a 3-2 victory. The Sox have won each of Floyd's last eight home starts, all quality outings. The 'under' has been a strong play when Floyd takes the U.S. Cellular Field mound, hitting in seven of ten tries. Floyd was on the short end of a 3-2 loss to the Angels back in late May, despite going eight innings and striking out eight.
LVSC has listed the White Sox as a $1.25 favorite, with the total listed at 10.
What else to watch for:
The Indians are absolutely horrible in Game 2's this season, going 8-26. Cleveland is 3-16 off a win in a series opener, and 5-10 off a defeat. The Tribe hosts the Twins at 7:05 PM EST.
The Nationals send out their ace, John Lannan against the Marlins. Lannan has been a strong 'under' play this season, hitting it in 16 of 22 starts, and each of the last four at home. However, Washington has been on a nice 'over' run lately, nailing the 'over' in seven of the last eight games.
A Pirates/Diamondbacks matchup in August doesn't mean much at this point in the pennant race, but for bettors, Pittsburgh is worth a strong look. Ross Ohlendorf is 7-2 at PNC Park this season, while not losing a home start since late May.
vegasinsider.com
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Colorado (59-47) at Philadelphia (59-45)
A battle of southpaws is on tap at Citizens Bank Park, as the Rockies’ Jorge De La Rosa (9-7, 4.68 ERA) is scheduled to match up against J.A. Happ (7-2, 2.97) and the Phillies in the middle game of a three-game series.
The Rockies pounded out an 8-3 victory on Tuesday and they’ve now won five in a row – all by multiple runs – after starting their road trip with three straight losses to the Mets by the combined score of 18-3. Colorado, which leads the N.L. Wild-Card race, is on surges of 39-15 overall, 21-8 on the road and 15-6 against teams with a winning record. However, the Rockies have dropped four of six to lefty starters.
Philadelphia has lost three in a row and five of its last six. Still, the defending champs are on positive streaks of 20-8 overall, 14-4 at home, 6-0 in the second game of a series, 6-2 versus left-handed starters and 15-6 when facing lefties at home. On the downside, the Phillies are 1-5 in their last six against the N.L. West and 1-5 in their last six on Wednesday.
The Rockies’ victory Tuesday was a rare one, as the Phillies had taken seven of the previous eight series clashes dating to the start of last season.
Colorado has won seven straight games behind De La Rosa overall and four straight on the road, and the lefty has delivered a quality start in his last six trips to the mound, posting a sensational 2.20 ERA during this stretch. On Thursday at the Mets, De La Rosa gave up two runs in 6 1/3 innings of a 4-2 victory, improving to 4-2 with a 3.76 ERA in nine road starts (2-0, 2.92 ERA last two on the road).
Happ is coming off consecutive defeats to the Cardinals (8-1 at home) and DBacks (4-0 on the road), giving up a combined seven runs on 13 hits in 12 innings. Those were his first two losses of the season and his first defeats since losing his major-league debut on June 30, 2007. Including the five-run, six-inning blowout against St. Louis, Happ is 3-1 with a 4.47 ERA in 13 appearances (six starts) at Citizens Bank this year.
De La Rosa has faced the Phillies five times (three starts) and is 0-2 with an 8.79 ERA, including an 8-4 home loss on April 11 when he gave up five runs in 4 2/3 innings. Meanwhile, Happ’s history against Colorado is limited to one relief appearance, and he pitched 2 1/3 scoreless innings.
The over is 3-1 in De La Rosa’s last four starts overall and 3-0 in his three career starts against Philadelphia. However, with Happ on the hill, the Phillies are on “under” runs of 13-3-1 overall (6-0 last six) and 7-2 at home (3-0 last three).
These clubs have been involved in shootouts lately, as the “over” is 8-1 in the last nine head-to-head meetings overall and 11-4-1 in the last 16 clashes in Philadelphia (playoffs included). The “over” is also 5-1 in the Phillies’ last five at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (62-43) at Tampa Bay (59-48)
The Red Sox and Rays conclude a brief two-game series at Tropicana Field, with Boston sending veteran Brad Penny (7-5, 5.07 ERA) to the hill opposite Tampa Bay phenom David Price (4-4, 5.10).
In Tuesday’s series opener, slugger Evan Longoria blasted a two-run homer – his second of the game – with two outs in the bottom 13th inning to lift Tampa Bay to a 4-2 victory. The Rays have followed a 1-3 slump by taking four of their last five (all at home), and they’re on further upticks of 92-38 at Tropicana Field going back to 2008 and 41-15 in the second game of a series.
Not only did Boston have its four-game winning streak halted in brutal fashion last night, but its offense was held down after averaging 8.3 runs in its previous seven games. Still the Red Sox remain on runs of 19-8 against A.L. East rivals, 6-2 on Wednesday and 12-5 in the second game of a series, but they’ve now lost 28 of their last 40 games played on artificial turf.
Tampa Bay holds a 7-4 lead in the season series with Boston, though the teams have alternated wins and losses in the last seven contests. Going back to last September – and including the A.L. Championship Series between the clubs – the Red Sox have lost eight of their last 11 at Tropicana Field, going 1-4 this year.
The Red Sox are 1-5 in Penny’s last six starts, including Wednesday’s 8-6 home loss to the A’s in which the right-hander surrendered seven runs, seven hits and four walks in five innings. Penny is 1-2 with a 7.16 ERA in his last three starts and he’s 2-3 with a 5.51 ERA in nine road outings this season, with the Red Sox going 3-6.
Penny faced the Rays twice in a five-day span in early May, giving up three runs in six innings of a 5-3 road loss, then allowing three runs in 6 1/3 innings of a 7-3 home victory. He’s 2-3 with a 5.06 ERA in six appearances (five starts) versus Tampa Bay.
Price is coming off one of his better outings of the season, as he limited the Royals to a run on five hits over seven innings en route to an 8-2 home victory. Price has given up a single run in each of his last three home starts, going 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA. For the season, he’s 4-1 with a 2.67 ERA in six home starts this year, with Tampa winning five of those contests.
Tonight marks Price’s first career start against the Red Sox. However, the rookie lefty got the final out for Tampa Bay in Game 7 of the ALCS against Boston last year and ended up pitching 2 1/3 hitless innings in that series.
Boston is on “under” runs of 8-2 on the road, 7-2-1 against the A.L. East, 6-2 against left-handed starters, 8-3 with Penny on the mound, 5-2 with Penny working on the road and 4-0 when Penny faces divisional foes. Similarly, Tampa Bay is riding “under” streaks of 39-17-2 overall, 5-1-1 at home, 26-8-2 versus right-handed starters, 5-1 on Wednesday, 12-3 in divisional play and 14-3 against winning teams. Finally, the under is 8-4-1 in the last 13 meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY and UNDER
Gametimepicks.com
Red Sox at Rays
By AllStar.com
Date: Wednesday August 5th
Time: 07:08 PM ET
TV: ESPN
Line: Rays -128 / Red Sox +118
Total: 9 ½ Over -120 / Under +100
R/Sox Road Record: 27-25
Rays Home Record: 34-18
R/Sox Last 10: 7-3
Rays Last 10: 6-4
Pitchers:
Brad Penny (BOS) 7-5 / 5.07 ERA / 72 K’s / 1.49 WHIP
David Price (TB) 4-4 / 5.10 ERA / 57 K’s / 1.63 WHIP
The Heat is on the Red Sox as they prepare for a week on the road against their two main divisional rivals The Rays and Yankees. They face the Rays Wednesday night on ESPN.
Naturally, this series is of particular importance to the Rays, and even during their earlier struggles, were a nemesis for the Sox this season. The Rays are 6-4 against Boston, with a plus-23 run differential, outscoring them 64-41. The Rays won 2 of 3 in a season-opening three game set at Fenway beginning April 7. In the teams' next series beginning April 30, the Rays took 3 of 4, including a 13-0 shellacking of Josh Beckett in the opener. The Red Sox rebounded by taking 2 of 3 at Fenway in a three-game set beginning May 8th.
The Red Sox (62-42) stumbled out of the break, losing eight of 12, but have quickly turned things around. Not only are the Red Sox winning, they are hitting. The same team that was recently in a slump has scored six runs or more in seven of the past nine games, and 36 runs in winning their last four. In Sunday’s 18-10 win over lowly Baltimore, they finished with season highs in runs and hits (23).
Since the teams last met in early May, the Red Sox have added RHP John Smoltz to their pitching staff and acquired C Victor Martinez and 1B Casey Kotchman in deadline deals.
Martinez, acquired from Cleveland on Friday, had a career high-tying five hits and four RBIs in his second game with his new club as it capped a three-game sweep at Camden Yards.
Jacoby Ellsbury is working on a stretch of seven multi hit games in his past nine contests Ellsbury has hit safely in nine of last 10 games, and is hitting .444 (20-for-45) during that time period while hitting out of the leadoff spot. He’s raised his average 18 points to its current .305 mark and scored 12 runs during that time period.
Mike Lowell has an 11-game hitting streak. ...
DH David Ortiz has emerged from an early season slump, leading the AL with 14 homers since June 6. .
Offensively, the Rays are led by third baseman Evan Longoria (.276, 21 homers, 78 RBIs, .886 OPS), left fielder Carl Crawford (.314, 11 homers, 48 steals), and first baseman Carlos Pena (26 homers, 67 RBIs, but a meager .214 batting average). Second baseman Ben Zobrist (.301, 19 homers, 56 RBIs, .988 OPS) and shortstop Jason Bartlett (.331, 8 homers, .889 OPS) have been pleasant surprises, while DH Pat Burrell (.226, 7 homers) and center fielder B.J. Upton (.244, 7 homers) have struggled.
Evan Longoria is 15-for-40 (.375) vs. Boston this season, with five homers and 21 Longoria is batting .196 (11 for 56) in his last 16 games, but he’s hit .375 (15 for 40) with five home runs, five doubles and 21 RBIs in 10 games against Boston this year.
In 35 career games against the Sox (including the ALCS), Longoria is batting .293 (34-of-116) with 10 homers and 35 RBIs.
Bartlett, who batted ninth on Sunday, was hitting .331 with eight home runs and 45 RBIs on the season entering Monday. He's second in the AL in hitting with runners in scoring position.
Upton after being named American League Player of the Month in June, his July numbers tailed off: .233 average, no home runs, and five RBIs in 103 at-bats.
The Rays struggled early this season, getting off to an 8-14 start, but 57-48 record, they are still lurking on the edge of the playoff race, trailing the Yankees (63-42) by six games and the Sox (62-42) by 5 1/2 in the wild-card race.
The Red Sox bullpen has been one of the best units in the majors.
Brad Penny (7-5, 5.07 ERA) struggled in his last start, allowing seven runs in five innings against the A's. This comes on the heels of a zero-earned run game July 24 against the Orioles, and Wednesday marked his third 5.0-inning start of July. He struck out three (to two walks), and he has not struck out more than six in a game since he struck out seven Twins May 25.In six career appearances against the Rays, Penny is 2-3 with a 5.06 ERA and a 20:9 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
David Price (4-4 5.07 ERA)scattered five hits across seven innings Friday against the Royals, allowing just one run while improving to 4-4 this season. All four of Price's wins have come at home, and he's been a completely different pitcher within the confines of Tropicana Field. He's 4-1 with a 2.67 ERA at home, compared with an ugly 8.20 mark on the road. He has been much better at home (4-1, 2.67) than on the road (0-3, 8.20). Price, looked sharp Friday night and earned his first win since the All-Star break The Red Sox lead the overall series 123-74, and our 52-46 lifetime when playing at Tropicana Field.
Betting Trends:
Red Sox are 2-6 in Brad Penny’s last 8 road starts
Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 games at Tampa Bay
The UNDER is 8-3 in Brad Penny’s last 11 starts
Rays are 5-1 in David Price’s last 6 starts at home
Rays are 92-38 in their last 130 home games
On-A-Roll!
By SportsPic
Everything is going right for Rockies hurler Jorge De La Rosa. Over his last seven starts the southpaw has allowed just 14 runs over 45.5 inning while compiling 16 walks, 40 K's for an awesome 1.12 WHIP, 10.09 ABRA, 2.77 ARA, 17.93 BOR leading his team to a perfect 7-0 mark stuffing +$723 into betting accounts. Going back ten starts the lefty has guided Rockies to a 9-1 (+$892) record behind a 1.29 WHIP, 11.59 ABRA, 3.91 ARA, 16.14 BOR performance. Rockies a league best 39-15 (+$2462) since June 4 including 21-8 (+$1629) on the highway have a good chance of running their win streak to six against a Phillie team that has not been the greatest at home (27-26). Teams with starters who are good at getting guys out (Batter-Out-Rating/9) leads to keeping runners off base (Avg-Base-Runner-Allw/9) therefore giving the opposition less wiggle room to score runs. Consider Rockies knowing road underdogs of +$1.20 to +$1.40 with starters who produce a high BOR (>15) thus enjoying low ABRA's (<12) are 55-23 on the season outscoring host teams 4.6 to 2.2. As always best of luck.
Wednesday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
By Covers.com
Streaking
Jorge De La Rosa (Colorado Rockies)
No member of the Rockies has benefited more from the midseason managerial change to Jim Tracy than De La Rosa.
The lefthander is 9-2 in 11 starts since Tracy took over in late May. He has won his last seven outings, working at least 5 2-3 innings in all of them while allowing no more than three earned runs in any of them.
"He's dealing with adversity a lot better," Tracy told the team's web site. "He's not overthrowing the ball, not rushing, he can get his pitches in the strike zone. When he does that with the stuff that he has, he's a very tough guy."
During his unbeaten streak, De La Rosa has a 2.70 ERA despite making five starts in hitter-happy Coors Field. One reason for De La Rosa's prolonged success has been his ability to limit the long ball. He has given up just three homers in his last 46 2-3 innings as a starter after allowing four in his previous 15 innings.
Rich Harden (Chicago Cubs)
The right-hander is in his best stretch of the season, even though his win-loss record may not reflect it.
In his last four starts, Harden is 2-0 with a pair of no-decisions in which the Cubs managed just three runs. He has gone four straight starts without allowing three runs for the first time this season.
There's more. In addition to a 1.50 ERA, Harden has allowed just 18 hits and walks while striking out 32 in 24 innings, including a season-high 11 in just five frames in his last outing.
Among pitchers with at least 90 innings, Harden is second in the NL in strikeout ratio, averaging 10.56 per nine innings.
Returning
Joe Martinez (San Francisco Giants)
The rookie righty will face Houston in his first major league start. He pitched twice in relief in April but took a line drive to the forehead off the bat of Milwaukee's Mike Cameron. He suffered a concussion, three hairline skull fractures, internal bleeding and a black eye.
Martinez underwent multiple CAT scans and was hospitalized for several days. More than a week after the incident, he still had no memory of it.
After a period of inactivity and eight rehab starts at three different levels of the minor leagues, Martinez is back in the majors with the Giants still searching for rotation consistency behind Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain.
Martinez was 0-1 with a 3.35 ERA in 37 2-3 minor league innings. He was 10-10 with a 2.49 ERA for Double-A Connecticut in 2008.
Kyle Davies (Kansas City Royals)
Davies has not pitched since June 19, after getting sent to the minor leagues because a prolonged stretch of poor outings. Davies is taking the rotation spot of Sidney Ponson, who was designated for assignment.
In his last seven starts before his demotion, Davies was 1-6 with a 6.30 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP (walks + hits per inning). He allowed eight homers in that stretch, and his only win came in a contest where he pitched the minimum five innings.
In eight starts at Triple-A Omaha, Davies was 4-2 with a 2.14 ERA. He was sent to the minors to work on command of his fastball.
"We still want to see it be better," Royals manager Trey Hillman told the team's web site. "It's just time to get him back up here and ride it out, get him back in the rotation and, hopefully, he performs well."
Slumping
Sergio Mitre (New York Yankees)
Take a good look at the journeyman right-hander filling the fifth spot in the rotation. He is getting worse with every outing, which is not a good sign for a team already monitoring Joba Chamberlain's innings.
In Mitre's first start, he worked his way through 5 2-3 innings to get a win. In his next start, he gave up four runs and nine hits in just five innings but received no decision. In his last outing, he was roughed up for five runs and seven hits in three innings and took the loss.
The innings are shortening, the runs are growing and the price on Mitre is shrinking. Those are telltale signs of a slumping pitcher.
Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
Wednesday, Aug. 5
Milwaukee at Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EDT). Fresh off his longest outing in a few years, Jason Schmidt (2-1) will try to lift the Dodgers to another victory. Schmidt lasted six innings, giving up one hit in a 5-0 win over the Braves on July 31.
STARS
Tuesday
-Albert Pujols, Cardinals, hit two homers including a grand slam in the 10th inning of a 12-7 victory over the New York Mets.
-Manny Ramirez and Matt Kemp, Dodgers. Ramirez ended his 10-game RBI drought with a homer and a two-run double, and Kemp homered and finished with four hits and five RBIs in Los Angeles' 17-4 victory over Milwaukee.
-Evan Longoria, Rays, hit two homers, including the game-winning two-run shot in the bottom of the 13th inning of a 4-2 victory over Boston.
-Scott Podsednik, White Sox, had an RBI single with two outs in the ninth to lift Chicago to a 5-4 victory over the Los Angeles Angels.
-Adam Dunn, Nationals, hit a tiebreaking two-run homer in a 6-4 victory over Florida.
NEAR NO-NO
Arizona's Yusmeiro Petit took a no-hitter into the eighth inning and combined with Leonel Rosales on a one-hitter in a 6-0 win at Pittsburgh on Tuesday night. Petit, who snapped a seven-game losing streak with his first victory in more than 11 months in his previous start, walked three and struck out four in eight innings. The right-hander threw a season-high 107 pitches - 73 for strikes - in going longer than seven innings for the first time in his career.
STRONG STARTS
Scott Baker allowed three hits in seven scoreless innings of Minnesota's 10-1 victory at Cleveland on Tuesday night. He struck out four and walked one. ... Tom Gorzelanny allowed one run and three hits in 7 1-3 innings and had an RBI single in the Chicago Cubs' 6-3 victory at Cincinnati. ... Jonathan Sanchez gave up four singles and struck out eight in seven scoreless innings to snap a nine-game road losing streak in San Francisco's 8-1 victory at Houston. ... Javier Vazquez gave up two runs and four hits in seven innings, winning his fourth consecutive decision as the Braves beat the Padres 9-2. ... Gio Gonzalez took a no-hitter into the fifth before finishing with 6 2-3 strong innings in Oakland's 6-0 win over Texas. ... Andy Pettitte limited Toronto to one run and four hits in 6 2-3 innings, helping the New York Yankees to a 5-3 victory over the Blue Jays.
SNAPPED
Adrian Gonzalez's consecutive games streak of 314 games ended Tuesday night when the Padres' All-Star was held out of the starting lineup for the second straight game to give him extra rest. But unlike Monday night, when he extended the longest active streak by entering the game in the ninth as a defensive replacement, Gonzalez stayed on the bench during San Diego's 9-2 loss.
START AND FINISH
Ichiro Suzuki homered on the second pitch of the game then ended it with a great sliding catch as the Seattle Mariners outlasted Kansas City 7-6 on Tuesday night, snapping a five-game losing streak against the Royals. Kansas City loaded the bases with two outs against Seattle closer David Aardsma with two singles and a walk. John Buck lifted a high fly ball to right and Suzuki went into a feet-first slide to make the game-ending catch in foul territory.
WINNING DEBUT, LOSING DEBUT
Brian Matusz won his major league debut, pitching five strong innings in Baltimore's 8-2 victory at Detroit, spoiling Jarrod Washburn's first start with the Tigers. Matusz, the fourth overall pick in the 2008 draft, allowed a run and six hits, walking three and striking out five. Washburn, acquired from Seattle on July 31, gave up six runs and six hits in 5 1-3 innings.
ALL OR NOTHING
Evan Longoria went 2 for 6 with two homers - including a game-ending two-run shot with two outs in the bottom of the 13th inning - and struck out four times in the Rays' 4-2 victory over the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday night. Longoria homered in the eighth off Daniel Bard, tying the score 2-2, then hit the tiebreaking shot off Takashi Saito five innings later.
EVERYDAY INDEED
Texas' Eddie Guardado appeared in his 900th game, pitching a scoreless seventh in the Rangers' 6-0 loss at Oakland on Tuesday night. Guardado became the fifth left-hander to appear in as many games, and ranks third among active pitchers in games.
SHUT DOWN
Troy Glaus' bulging disk in his lower back has not responded to treatment, forcing the St. Louis Cardinals to end the third baseman's minor league rehab assignment. Glaus had arthroscopic shoulder surgery in January and hasn't played all season. Glaus was examined by team doctors in St. Louis over the weekend and the club said it will be a week to 10 days before he's able to resume baseball activities. Cardinals manager Tony La Russa said Glaus may be able to return to the majors in September.
SPEAKING
"I'm human. I'm not a machine. I work hard. I'm ready every day. I didn't put my head down. I don't change myself and I don't change my approach.'' - St. Louis slugger Albert Pujols, after snapping out of an 0-for-13 skid with two homers, including a grand slam in the 10th inning of the Cardinals' 12-7 victory over the New York Mets.