Wednesday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Jorge De La Rosa (7-4, 4.10 ERA)
The only thing hotter than De La Rosa is the team for which he plays. Colorado is in the midst of one of its usual September surges and De La Rosa is a big reason why.
The lefty has lasted no fewer than 5 1-3 innings and allowed no more than three earned runs in any of his past 10 starts dating back to July 22. He has taken the loss in only one of his last eight outings, and even then he pitched seven innings of two-run ball.
De La Rosa is coming off a stellar performance last Friday against Arizona, going six innings and giving just five hits and two runs while striking out 10 and walking none.
“De La Rosa is throwing the ball very reminiscent of what we saw an awful lot of last year,” MLB.com reported Colorado manager Jim Tracy as saying.
Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels (11-11, 3.02 ERA)
Weaver has two losses and a no-decision to show for it, but he has continued to throw the ball well over his past three starts.
The 6-foot-7 righty struck out 11 and allowed only one run in eight innings of work but lost 1-0 to Baltimore on August 29. In his last two outings combined he has went 15 innings with 11 strikeouts and just four runs allowed.
“It is what it is,” Weaver told the Los Angeles Times when asked about his lack of run support. “I can only go out there and do my job, go out there and battle. I was brought up not to give up. My dad would kick me in the ass if he saw me out there not battling.”
Slumping
Paul Maholm, Pittsburgh Pirates (7-14, 5.37 ERA)
Maholm pitched seven innings on Friday and gave up only three runs to the Reds. That’s a remarkable performance…at least by Maholm standards.
In his previous two outings, surrendered a combined 15 earned runs in 7.2 innings. Those numbers resulted in a 14-2 loss to the Cubs and a 9-2 setback against the Nationals.
The Pirates have won only one of Maholm’s last seven starts and he has not earned a win, himself, since August 3.
Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds (3-3, 4.70 ERA)
Bailey has not been terrible of late. In fact, he has clearly been good enough for a Cincinnati team that is seven games up in the NL Central.
Still, he better improve by the time the Reds presumably head into the playoffs. Bailey pitched seven innings of one-run ball last Friday, but that came against the Pirates.
In three previous outings, the righty lasted no more than six innings and allowed between four and five earned runs. He has not earned a win in any of his last four starts.
Tips and Trends
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
TWINS: Minnesota has one of the largest leads in division play, a 6 game lead in the American League Central. The Twins are playing great baseball, having won 8 of their past 10 games. Coach Gardenhire is on the short list for Manager of the Year, as he is doing another outstanding coaching job in Minnesota. The Twins are 85-58 SU this year, including a winning road record of 37-35 SU. Minnesota is +16.61 and -2.57 units both SU and on the RL respectively this year. Lefty Brian Duensing is 8-2 this season with an ERA of 2.02 and a WHIP of 1.07. Duensing has been brilliant this year, and a major reason for the success of the Twins. The Twins are 39-15 in their last 54 games overall. Minnesota is 56-24 in their last 80 games against the American League Central. The Twins are 23-8 in their last 31 games against a right-handed starter. Minnesota is 20-8 in their last 28 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Twins are 4-0 in Duensing's last 4 starts against the American League Central. Minnesota is 4-1 in Duensing's last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Twins are 0-4 in Duensing's last 4 road starts against a team with a winning record.
Twins are 5-0 last 5 games during game 2 of a series.
Under is 7-0 last 7 road games against a right-handed starter.
Key Injuries - 1B Justin Morneau (concussion) is out.
Projected Score: 5 (SIDE of the Day)
WHITE SOX: (-110, O/U 8.5) The only legitimate shot Chicago has of making the playoffs rest on their current series with Minnesota. The White Sox trail the Twins by 6 games, so each game they go head to head is simply crucial for Chicago. The White Sox are 79-64 SU this year, including 40-28 SU at home. Chicago is +10.63 and +9.92 units both SU and on the RL overall this season. Righty Gavin Floyd is 10-12 SU this year, with an ERA of 3.91 and a WHIP of 1.35 this year. The White Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Chicago is 9-4 in their last 13 home games against a left-handed starter. The White Sox are 27-10 in their last 37 home games overall. The White Sox are 4-1 in Floyd's last 5 starts with 5 days of rest. Chicago is 12-5 in Floyd's last 17 home starts against a team with a winning record. The White Sox are 0-4 in Floyd's last 4 starts against the American League Central.
White Sox are 13-4 last 17 home games against a team with a winning record.
Over is 13-4 last 17 games against the American League Central.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 4
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals
CUBS: Any member of the Cubs faithful should be extremely proud of their franchise, as they are playing out the season the right way. Despite being only 63-81 SU this year, the Cubs are playing their best baseball of the year right now. The past 4 wins Chicago has had have come as the listed underdog, making the Cubs a great team to wager on closing out the year. In fact, the Cubs very well might be last year's version of the San Diego Padres. Chicago is -26.30 and -10.06 units both SU and on the RL this year. One of the better surprises of late has been the form of Carlos Zambrano. Zambrano has won his past 3 starts, with an ERA of 0.86 and a WHIP of 0.95 during that stretch. The Cubs are 9-3 in their last 12 road games overall. Chicago is 6-2 in their last 8 road games against a right-handed starter. The Cubs are 4-0 in Zambrano's last 4 starts. The Cubs are 4-1 in Zambrano's last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Chicago is 20-6 in Zambrano's last 26 road starts against a team with a winning record. The Cubs are 36-17 in Zambrano's last 53 starts against the National League Central.
Cubs are 7-19 last 26 games against a team with a winning record.
Under is 8-0 last 8 games against the National League Central.
Key Injuries - SS Starlin Castro (hip) is questionable.
Projected Score: 1
CARDINALS: (-205, O/U 7) With the starting pitching that St. Louis has, it's been amazing to see this team fall from the top of the National League Central division standings. The Cardinals are 74-68 SU this year, 6 games behind Cincinnati. 6 of the past 10 games the Cardinals pitching staff has allowed 5 runs or more. St. Louis is -21.11 and -14.94 units both SU and on the RL respectively this season. The only chance the Cardinals have of making the playoffs rest on beating inferior opponents. Ace pitcher Chris Carpenter will take the home mound tonight, looking to do exactly this. Carpenter is 15-6 this season, with an ERA of 3.09 and a WHIP of 1.17. The Cardinals are 19-9 in their last 28 home games against a right-handed starter. St. Louis is 4-13 in their last 17 games against the National League Central. The Cardinals are 1-4 in their last 5 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Cardinals are 1-5 in their last 6 games during game 3 of a series. St. Louis is 22-5 in Carpenter's last 27 home starts against a team with a losing record. The Cardinals are 23-8 in Carpenter's last 31 starts with 4 days of rest.
Cardinals are 5-16 last 21 games against a team with a losing record.
Under is 5-0 last 5 home games against a right-handed starter.
Key Injuries - 3B David Freese (ankle) is out.
Projected Score: 3 (UNDER-Total of the Day)
Diamon Trends - Wednesday
By Vince Akins
Brewers at Astros – The Brewers are 5-0 since April 15, 2010 as a road dog after a one run loss and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $785. The Astros are 8-0 since July 06, 2010 at home vs a divisional foe that is behind them in the divisional standings for a net profit of $800.
Nationals at Braves – The Nationals are 0-11 since May 01, 2010 as a road dog when they are off a win in which they never trailed and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1100 when playing against. The Braves are 12-0 since May 08, 2010 after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1276.
Cubs at Cardinals – The Cardinals are 6-0 since May 20, 2010 as a home favorite after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $600.
Dodgers at Giants – The Giants are 7-0 since April 11, 2010 as a home 140+ favorite after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $700.
Angels at Indians – The Indians are 8-0 since April 15, 2010 at home within 20 cents of pickem when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $840.
Red Sox at Mariners – The Mariners are 0-7 since April 25, 2010 as a 140+ dog after a loss in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $700 when playing against.
Phillies at Marlins – The Phillies are 15-0 since July 23, 2010 after a win in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $1590.
Pirates at Mets – The Pirates are 0-7 since April 24, 2010 as a road dog when they are off two losses in which they never led and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $700 when playing against.
Blue Jays at Orioles – The Blue Jays are 0-8 since May 22, 2010 on the road after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $805 when playing against.
Tigers at Rangers – The Tigers are 0-7 since June 30, 2010 on the road after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $790 when playing against. The Rangers are 13-0 since May 01, 2010 after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $1470.
Yankees at Rays – The Rays are 0-5 since April 11, 2010 as a home favorite after a loss in which they left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $730 when playing against.
Diamondbacks at Reds – The Diamondbacks are 0-11 since May 29, 2010 as a road 140+ dog when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $1100 when playing against.
Padres at Rockies – The Rockies are 8-0 since April 11, 2010 as a 140+ favorite after a loss and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $800. The Rockies are 7-0 since August 30, 2010 after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $780.
Athletics at Royals – The Athletics are 8-0 since April 25, 2010 as a favorite and it is the last game of a three game series when they split the first two for a net profit of $800. The Royals are 0-15 since April 27, 2010 when they are off a win in which they never trailed and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1585 when playing against.
Twins at White Sox – The White Sox are 6-0 since May 22, 2010 when Gavin Floyd starts at home after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $600.
MLB RoundUp For 9/15
By Dan Bebe
National League
Nationals @ Braves (-185) with a total of 8.5
As discussed many times, the motivational edge is generally enough to keep me off games, but I think I need to be more explicit. I'm not avoiding these games because the better team is so much better than they're the only way to go. I'm avoiding these games because, as No Limit is doing a fine job of tracking, the odds are inflated on the team with motivation. If you bet all the dogs, you're in good shape, but picking and choosing from among the dogs can be very, very finicky. That's why I'm dodging these games, in an effort to simplify capping.
Brewers @ Astros (-155) with a total of 7.5
Screw it, I'm back to not betting Dave Bush starts. I can't get this guy locked down, and now it's in my head. This one should be a win for the Astros on paper, but lord knows Bush will throw 7 shutout innings if I bet on Houston. Pass.
Padres @ Rockies (-153) with a total of 9
This is a pretty damn important late afternoon game, but to me, that complicates things a tad. Richard is 1-1 with a 4.32 ERA against the Rockies, and the Padres have done a nice job pitching in this series so far against a very hot opponent. Both of these starters have been extremely up-and-down against the other team this year, and both have fared better in San Diego (no surprise, there). The Rockies are going to get this inflated number moving up if they're trying to avoid a sweep (we'll know shortly), so if you believe the Padres have a good shot, they're a decent value.
D'backs @ Reds (-200) with a total of 9
Yet another hyper-inflated line, and yet another game I'd have a very tough time playing unless the situation was perfect. It is not. Saunders is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA against the Reds, and Bailey has been quite effective since coming off the DL. The D'backs got a tremendous outing (again) from Daniel Hudson yesterday, so you have to think the Reds bounce back. I'd be nervous to play the dog in this one, and even more nervous to pay the price on the inflated fave.
Phillies @ Marlins with a total of N/A
Um, not even touching this one.
Pirates @ Mets (-160) with a total of 8
I could literally write the same exact note on this game that I did yesterday. If this game was in Pittsburgh, I'd be all over the Pirates, but I just can't trust that team on the road, even if the young Mejia is 0-4. Confound it, if only this game wasn't a home game for New York.
Cubs @ Cardinals (-205) with a total of 7
We successfully backed Zambrano in his last start, and certainly, there remains some value with him, here, but the biggest key to that outing was that he was the player on the field that cared the most about the game at hand. In this one, the Cards still believe they have a shot, albeit a long one. Carpenter is 10-4 with a 2.87 ERA against the Cubbies lifetime, too, so that makes fading him a tad tougher.
Dodgers @ Giants (-145) with a total of 7
There is some serious value with the spoilers in this one. I know it sounds insane, but Matt Cain's issues with the Dodgers are almost too juicy to pass up. Billingsley is 6-2 with a 2.73 ERA. Cain is 1-8 with a 4.03 ERA against the Dodgers, who just seem to get that one key hit against him, or his opponent throws a complete game shutout. Of course, the line is pretty high on the Giants side, but it matches up alright with yesterday's, in terms of what you'd expect from game to game.
American League
Red Sox (-171) @ Mariners with a total of 7
This one falls into that inflated number spot, but the Mariners are sucking so hard that it's not worth even exploring.
Angels (-135) @ Indians with a total of 8
Jeanmar Gomez has definitely shown the ability to shut teams down, which immediately makes the Indians a reasonable play. Weaver has been far superior at home, and even though he has a solid 3-1 lifetime record against the Indians, if they can scratch across 3 runs, I think they have a decent shot of coming up with an underdog winner. Gomez hasn't pitched in 10 days, however, so there may be some concern about arm strength.
Blue Jays @ Orioles (-120) with a total of 9.5
To be quite frank, I have no idea why this line is as low as it is. Considering Matusz was a similar size favorite in the opener, and Arrieta was a much shorter favorite last night, to see Bergesen, a pitcher that has come on strong in the last 2 months, as just a -120 favorite against a Toronto team that's struggling mightily is a little weird, especially when Kyle Drabek is making his Big League debut. We know what the Jays want to do - they want homers. The Orioles want to play good ball, and win.
Yankees @ Rays (-110) with a total of 9
Both of these pitchers have been pretty bad in the last week or two. Shields has been a shell of his usual self in the entire second half of the season, and Hughes is coming off a start where he allowed 6 runs to the Jays at home. This number is accurate, since, really, the first team to get 9 straight outs without allowing a run will probably win. The total is spot on, too, though I'd look at the Over, if anything, in this game.
Tigers @ Rangers with a total of N/A
I'm not usually an advocate of taking some bigger lines, but this might be an interesting spot. The Rangers are playing well enough to win at home, and the Tigers scratched Porcello (elbow tendinitis) for Galarraga, who was supposed to have his start skipped because of shoulder soreness. Does Galarraga really want to push it this late in the year, risk injury, and potentially miss time next year or spend the offseason rehabbing for a meaningless Tigers game? My guess is that his heart isn't going to be in it, entirely. The price is going to be hefty, but a RL might not be completely insane, just given the circumstance.
Twins @ White Sox (-110) with a total of 8.5
The White Sox have had all kinds of issues with the Twinkies this year, and are in jeopardy of seeing their season (basically) end with a failure in this series. Think there's some pressure? Chicago has not responded well to being pushed in the last couple weeks, following up a quiet winning streak with a much louder losing skid. Meanwhile, the Twins just keep finding ways to win, and are slowly getting healthier. Duensing is 8-2 with a 2.02 ERA this year, 3-0 lifetime against the Sox, and has just been a shining beacon of hope for a rotation that badly needed another reliable arm behind Pavano. Floyd hates Minnesota. You do the math.
Athletics (-160) @ Royals with a total of 7.5
Another inflated line. I liked the idea of backing the A's to win this series, but the Royals just manhandled Gio Gonzalez last night, and that does scare me a little. Cahill goes for improbable win number 17 here, and it might be more fun to just see if Kansas City can get any extra base hits? I wouldn't back the Royals, and I have a very, very, almost unnoticeable lean to the A's.