Wednesday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Scott Kazmir (9-8, 5.08 ERA), Los Angeles Angels
The season started to turn for the better for Kazmir just before Tampa Bay shipped him over to the West Coast. After a disastrous start to the year, the lefty has delivered quality starts in seven straight outings.
The Halos are 3-1 in the four starts Kazmir has made for them and the under is 6-0 over his last six trips to the hill. The former Mets prospect owns a 1.42 ERA with Los Angeles.
“He pitched a terrific game,” manager Mike Scioscia told reporters following Kazmir’s latest start. “Scott’s important to our rotation. He’s given us four good starts.”
Cole Hamels (10-9, 4.07), Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies ace is rounding into form with the playoffs just around the corner. The former World Series MVP is 3-1 with a 1.82 ERA in four September starts. The Phils have won four of his last five starts and the under is 7-0 over his last seven appearances.
“There’s nothing better than pitching at home in September,” Hamels told reporters following a masterful performance against the Nationals last week. “The fans are great and it kind of gives you that extra motivation.”
Slumping
Chad Billingsley (12-10, 4.05), Los Angeles Dodgers
Is Billingsley running out of gas? This guy had a 9-3 record and a 2.75 ERA in the middle of June. Since then he’s gone 3-7 with a 5.40 ERA.
His last appearance came out of the bullpen and, after getting tagged for two runs in under two innings of work, there’s whispers he might lose his rotation spot when the playoffs roll around.
“I don’t think he’s got the same swagger that he’s had before,” an NL scout told the Los Angeles Times. “I’ve heard [about his injured hamstring]. I’ve heard when the foot lands one way it does this. There’s a lot of theories there.
“I think it’s confidence.”
Scott Richmond (6-10, 5.31), Toronto Blue Jays
Jays fans know all about this guy’s inability to keep crooked numbers of the scoreboard. Toronto has won just one of his last nine starts and he sports a monstrous 7.79 ERA over his last five games.
“He’s been having trouble with his location for a while,” Jays manager Cito Gaston told reporters shortly after a 2 1-3 innings appearance a week back. “Tonight was bad location. No control with is fastball.”
The over is also 8-2 over his last 10 trips to the bump.
Philadelphia (88-62) at Florida (81-71)
The Phillies look to move another step closer to capturing their third consecutive N.L. East title while pushing the Marlins closer to elimination when these division rivals wrap up a three-game, two-day series at Land Shark Stadium. Philadelphia will send ace Cole Hamels (2-2, 4.24) to the hill opposite Rick VandenHurk (10-9, 4.07).
These teams split a doubleheader on Tuesday, with the Phillies cruising 9-3 in the opener then losing 3-0 in the finale. Philadelphia leads the N.L. East by 7 ½ games over the Braves and 8½ over the Marlins, and its magic number to clinch the division is down to five. The defending world champs have won 11 of their last 15 overall, including eight of the last 10, all against division rivals. They’re 5-3 on the road during this stretch, and Philadelphia is on additional upticks of 24-10 in divisional play, 12-5 versus winning teams, 6-1 on Wednesday and 7-2 against right-handed starters.
Florida has lost seven of its last 12 at home, five of seven against lefty starters and six of eight at home against southpaws, but is otherwise on positive runs of 9-4 against N.L. East rivals and 4-0 on Wednesday.
By winning the nightcap of last night’s doubleheader, the Marlins ended Philadelphia’s nine-game winning streak at Land Shark Stadium. Still, the road team has dominated this rivalry in 2009, winning 12 of the first 14 meetings.
Hamels is coming off back-to-back 4-2 home wins over the Mets (one run allowed in 6 2/3 innings) and Nationals (one run allowed in eight innings). Philly is 4-1 in Hamels’ last five trips to the mound, with the lefty posting a 1.43 ERA during this stretch. However, the Phillies have lost four of Hamels’ last five starts on the road, where the San Diego native is just 3-6 this year with a 4.98 ERA in 14 outings.
Hamels has struggled in his young career against the Marlins, going 2-5 with a 4.19 ERA in 10 starts. Also, Philly is 1-6 in his last seven starts against the Fish and 1-4 in his five career outings in South Beach.
VandenHurk has a 2.40 ERA in his last three trips to the hill (four earned runs allowed in 15 innings), though he doesn’t have anything to show for it, getting three no-decisions. However, the Marlins won all three games, beating Atlanta 8-7 at home while scoring road wins at the Mets (4-2) and Reds (4-3). In four home starts, the 6-foot-5 right-hander is 1-1 with a 4.98 ERA. VandenHurk is also 0-2 with a bloated 12.79 ERA in two career starts against the Phillies, losing 11-1 and 9-1 in Philadelphia in 2007.
The Phillies have stayed under the total in Hamels’ last seven starts overall, his last four on the road and his last four against the N.L. East, and the under is 13-3-1 in his last 17 when starting the third game of a series. Conversely, the over is 5-2 in VandenHurk’s last seven starts overall and 4-0 in his last four at home.
As a team Philadelphia is on “under” runs of 7-3 overall (all against the N.L. East), 11-4 against winning teams, 25-9 in the third game of a series and 17-8 on Wednesday, however the over is 5-2 in the Phillies’ last seven as a visitor. Meanwhile, the under is 6-1-1 in Florida’ s last eight games overall, but otherwise the over for the Marlins is on streaks of 20-8 at home, 6-2 on Wednesday and 8-4 versus lefty starters.
Finally, the over is 55-26-3 in the last 84 Phillies-Marlins meetings in Miami.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
N.Y. Yankees (96-56) at L.A. Angels (90-61)
The Yankees conclude a six-game West Coast road trip and cap their season series against the Angels with an afternoon affair in Anaheim, as New York’s A.J. Burnett (11-9, 4.22 ERA) is set to oppose Los Angeles lefty Scott Kazmir (9-8, 5.08).
After losing Monday’s opener to the Angels 5-2, the Yankees squandered a 5-0 lead last night, but got a run in the top of the ninth and held on for a 6-5 victory, becoming the first team in baseball to clinch a playoff berth. New York is just 2-3 on the road trip and 5-6 in its last 11 overall. However, Joe Girardi’s squad remains on impressive streaks of 58-24 overall, 17-8 on the road, 38-17 versus southpaw starters, 7-2 on the road against lefties, 41-13 on Wednesday and 36-16 against teams with a winning record.
Los Angeles is still 4-2 in its last six games, and Mike Scioscia’s club is on additional surges of 7-2 at home, 14-7 against the A.L. East and 41-14 in the third game of a series. The Angels also hold a slim 5-4 lead in the season series with New York, and the home team is 7-2 in the nine meetings this year and 14-3 in the last 17 clashes. The Yanks have won just twice in their last seven games at Angel Stadium.
Burnett pitched well at Seattle on Friday, allowing a run on seven hits in seven innings, but closer Mariano Rivera blew a 2-1, ninth-inning lead and the Yankees fell 3-2, dropping to 2-5 in Burnett’s last seven starts. They’re also 1-4 in his last five road efforts, but 4-0 in his last four Wednesday outings. Despite the strong performance at Seattle, Burnett is just 6-6 with a 4.83 ERA on the highway this season.
Burnett faced the Angels on April 30 in the Bronx and yielded four runs on eight hits in seven innings, but the Yankees prevailed, 7-4. He’s 1-2 with a 4.63 ERA in five lifetime starts versus the Halos.
Kazmir has been brilliant since getting dealt to the Angels last month, allowing a total of five runs (four earned) in four starts, including pitching six shutout innings in Friday’s 2-0 victory in Texas, his first win in an L.A. uniform. Going back to his time with Tampa Bay, Kazmir has registered seven consecutive quality starts, allowing 11 total earned runs in 45 innings (2.20 ERA).
The Angels have posted a pair of 3-2 victories in Kazmir’s two home starts, with the lefty allowing a combined three runs on 10 hits in 13 innings (2.08 ERA). Also, he’s shined against the Yankees in his career, going 6-4 with a 2.53 ERA in 14 appearances (13 starts), including 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA in two starts this year.
With Burnett on the bump, New York is on “under” runs of 16-7-2 overall, 3-1-1 against the A.L. East and 4-0-1 on Wednesday. Also, all four of Kazmir’s starts with the Angels have stayed low, and the under is 6-0 in his last six outings going back to his time with the Rays.
The Yankees are on “under” rolls of 4-2 overall, 5-2 against the A.L. West, 3-0-1 against lefty starters and 8-3 on Wednesday, but the over is still 10-5 in their last 15 road games. Meanwhile, L.A. carries nothing but “under” trends, including 20-6-1 overall, 6-1-1 at home and 16-6-1 versus right-handed starters.
Conversely, the over is 22-9 in the last 31 Yankees-Angels battles overall, with 14 of the last 18 in Anaheim topping the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS
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SCOREBOARD
Wednesday, September 23
Philadelphia at Florida (7:10 p.m. EDT). Coming off an excellent outing, World Series MVP Cole Hamels (10-9, 4.07 ERA) gets the ball for the Phillies as they try to close in on their third consecutive NL East title.
STARS
Tuesday
-Alex Rodriguez, Yankees, homered and drove in three runs, including a tiebreaking sacrifice fly in the ninth inning of New York's 6-5 victory over the Los Angeles Angels.
-Jose Lopez, Mariners, hit a tiebreaking home run in the eighth inning to lead Seattle to a 4-3 victory over Tampa Bay.
-Rafael Furcal, Dodgers, had four hits and four RBIs in Los Angeles' 14-2 victory at Washington.
-Zack Greinke, Royals, allowed two hits in six scoreless innings to lead Kansas City to a 5-1 win over Boston.
-Aaron Hill, Blue Jays, doubled home the winning run in the bottom of the 11th inning of Toronto's 6-5 win over Baltimore.
-Scott Rolen and Joey Votto, Reds. Rolen had three hits and three RBIs and Votto had three doubles in Cincinnati's 10-4 win over Pittsburgh.
-Edwin Jackson, Tigers, pitched seven shutout innings in Detroit's 3-1 win at Cleveland to improve to 4-0 in five starts against the Indians this season.
-Derrek Lee, Cubs, hit his 35th homer and drove in two runs in Chicago's 7-2 victory over Milwaukee.
BACK IN THE PLAYOFFS
Brett Gardner scored the tiebreaking run on Alex Rodriguez's sacrifice fly in the ninth, and the New York Yankees celebrated clinching their 14th playoff appearance in 15 seasons Tuesday night with a 6-5 victory over the Los Angeles Angels. Rodriguez homered and drove in three runs before Mariano Rivera earned his 41st save for the Yankees, who were guaranteed a return to the postseason - after missing out last year - about 55 minutes before the last out when Oakland beat the Texas Rangers 9-1.
STRIKEOUT KING
Arizona third baseman Mark Reynolds struck out three times in the Diamondbacks' 10-8 win over San Francisco on Tuesday night, breaking his major league record to reach 206 for the season. Reynolds struck out against Matt Cain in the third to tie the mark of 204 he set last year, then broke the record when rookie left-hander Madison Bumgarner got him in the fourth. He also struck out against Brian Medders in the sixth. Reynolds, who also has 43 homers and 100 RBIs, is the only player in major league history to strike out at least 200 times in a season.
NO REPEAT
One year after reaching the World Series, Tampa Bay was eliminated from postseason contention with a 4-3 loss to Seattle.
STREAKS
Houston's 11-2 loss to St. Louis on Tuesday night was the Astros' ninth straight, their longest skid since losing 10 straight in May 2007. ... Cleveland's 3-1 loss to Detroit was the Indians' ninth straight defeat. ... Atlanta's 3-1 victory against the Mets was the Braves' sixth straight win on the road. ... Baltimore's 6-5 loss in 11 innings to Toronto was the Orioles' sixth straight loss.
NO SENATE RUN
Curt Schilling won't test out just how popular he is in Massachusetts. The former Boston Red Sox pitcher, beloved in the state for his starring role in ending an 86-year championship drought, announced Tuesday he isn't running for Edward M. Kennedy's seat in the U.S. Senate. Earlier this month, Schilling expressed interest in pursuing the post held by the Massachusetts Democrat for almost 50 years before he died in August. But appearing on "Joe Buck Live'' on HBO on Tuesday night, Schilling quashed the notion.
SPEAKING
"I am biased. Part of that bias is I've seen all his starts. I have a very difficult time believing there is anybody better in the major leagues, that's as good a pitcher as Zack Greinke is in the year 2009.'' - Kansas City Royals manager Trey Hillman on Greinke's Cy Young chances.
Dog Bites
The Washington Nationals Major Leagues worst both overall (51-99) and in front of the home crowd (29-44) have cost backers a whopping -$3568 this season. Not exactly a team you want to back. However, Wednesday presents a great opportunity as the slugs take on Dodgers and Billingsley whose current struggles on the mound would be an understatement. Billingsley winless in five starts and one relief appearance has given up 42 hits, 20 runs compiling 11 walks, 21 K's in 28.2 innings of work which sends the righty to the mound with a 1.88 WHIP, 16.91 ABRA/9 and 8.77 BOR/9 over the span. Road favorites with starters like Billingsley who can't get guys out (Low - Batter-Out-Rating/9) leading to a slew of men-on-base (High - Avg-Base-Runners-Allowed/9) are bad bets as the opposition has an easier time scoring runs. League wide road favorites with a starter producing a low BOR (15) are a terrible 50-142 (26.0%) on the year. With Nationals 6-1 the past seven playing a team with these parameter stuffing +$636 into betting accounts a small wager on lowly Washington has merit.
Wednesday's Hot and Cold Starters
By: Freddy Willis
A look at the hot and cold pitchers going today. The information you need to know whether it is for fantasy baseball or wagering contests. Another POD loser, I really do not know what has gone wrong, but I am going to make an adjustment and change a few things. I do think I'm very close as my leans as of 11:22pm on Tuesday are 9-3, and one of the losses were the Rays, my POD which I liked the most! Wednesday is a large card and I'm confident I can come back with a POD winner. There are a total of five hot pitchers, with ERA's under 3.00 in their last 5, and a total of eight pitchers with ERA's under 6.00. Yesterday I told you Kuroda gave you the best opportunity to win against the Nationals, and the Dodgers went on and beat them 14-2. We also took the Royals on the run line for our free mlb pick with +140 juice for a nice hit with another hot starter in Zach Greinke. On the cold side of things I told you Edwin Jackson had the best chance to rebound and he certainly did as the Tigers won 3-1.
Probable Hot Starting Pitchers:
Brian Duensing (Twins)
Making his debut as the best pitcher going on Wednesday Duensing has been absolutely on fire. In his last 5 starts he has 3-0 record with a 1.11 ERA in 32.1 IP. Duensing has been very impressive since joining the rotation and has a 27:9 K:BB ratio in 37.1 innings pitched as a starter over 6 starts. He will be making this third start against the White Sox in his 7th overall start of the year. The first two times he pitched well enough to win in each giving up just 8 hits and 2 ER in 12 innings pitched while striking out 9. However, on the road he has gone just twice at Toronto and Kansas City and has been less effective going 10 innings giving up 12 hits, and 5 ER. He'll be facing off against another south paw who had dominated at home.
Mark Buehrle will make the start against the Twins and will probably be Brian Duensing's biggest obstacle on Wednesday night. Buehrle will be making his 6th start against the Twins and although he has struggled at time this year during his 5 starts he has been dominant in his two home starts going 13.1 IP giving up 10 hits 2 ER and 0 BB's. However, the Twins have been playing championship baseball winning again on Tuesday. They just seem to have that grit that you need down the stretch to stay in a pennant race. They are however, 13-38 in their last 51 road games vs. LH starter so for me I would not touch them in this situation which will have a sports betting linearound even juice.
If you want my recommendation I'd lay off this game it seems like White Sox have the edge with a veteran pitcher where the White Sox are 10-2 in his last 12 home starts vs. a team with a winning record, but the Sox are also 1-4 in their last 5 vs. LH starter and they haven't been exactly scoring runs as of late.
Notables - Last 5 Starts!
* Homer Bailey (2-1, 1.36 WHIP, 1.95 ERA) * Cole Hamels (3-1, 0.96 WHIP, 1.43 ERA) * Tim Stauffer (3-1, 1.54 WHIP, 2.96 ERA) * Scott Kazmir (1-1, 0.96 WHIP, 1.44 ERA)
Most likely to sustain and win:
Cole Hamels
Probable Cold Starting Pitchers:
Scott Richmond (Blue Jays)
Mr. Richmond was on this list last time as he has a 0-3 record with a 111.28 ERA and 2.19 WHIP in his last 5 starts. So I wonder what kind of performance he came up with in his last start a 2 inning game giving up 7 hits and 5 ER @ TB. The one thing he has going for him is pitching at home tomorrow where he has a significantly lower ERA at 4.58 compared to his 5.99 road ERA.
He also has pitched well against the Orioles going 7 innings and giving up 2 ER in a May start. However, take note that this was when he was pitching well and his arm was fresh. His ERA before the All Star break was 3.69 and since he has a 8.92 ERA. I'm not even quite sure why the Blue Jays keep putting this poor guy out there. He's given up 5 ER or more in each of his last 5 starts. Consistency is not always good and in this situation it's not!
Notables - Last 5 Starts!
* Chad Billingslea (0-3, 1.90 WHIP, 6.35 ERA) * Rich Detwiler (0-3, 2.12 WHIP, 7.91 ERA) * Mike Pelfrey (1-3, 1.70 WHIP, 7.04 ERA) * Bud Norris (1-3, 1.70 WHIP, 6.00 ERA) * Luke Hochevar (1-4, 1.53 WHIP, 6.44 EAR) * Clayton Mortenson (2-2, 1.55 WHIP, 6.14 ERA)
Most likely to rebound:
Chad Billingslea