L.A. Dodgers (4-3) at Philadelphia (6-2)
Now just one victory away from a return trip to the World Series, the Phillies give the ball to last year’s postseason hero Cole Hamels (11-12, 4.46 ERA) in Game 5 of the NLCS at Citizens Bank Park. With their season on the line, the Dodgers turn to Vicente Padilla (12-6, 4.46).
With the Phillies trailing 4-3 and down to their last out in Game 4 on Monday, Jimmy Rollins ripped a two-run double off L.A. closer Jonathan Broxton to give Philadelphia a stunning 5-4 victory. Tonight, the defending world champs will attempt to knock the Dodgers out of the NLCS in five games for the second consecutive season.
The Dodgers are still 6-3 in their last nine games and are on additional positive surges of 5-2 as an underdog and 40-18 after a loss, but they’re 1-6 in their last seven on the highway, 3-7 in their last 10 against the N.L. East and 3-8 in their last 11 on Wednesday. Also, Joe Torre’s team has dropped seven of nine NLCS games the last two years, all to the Phillies, going 0-4 at Citizens Bank Park.
The Phillies are 17-5 in their last 22 playoff contests, including 9-2 in the last 11 dating to last year’s run to the World Series title. They’ve also won 10 of 11 at home in the postseason the last two Octobers. Charlie Manuel’s club is on additional surges of 7-2 overall, 35-15 at home (33-12 as a home chalk), 10-1 as a playoff favorite, 13-3 against the N.L. West and 8-2 on Wednesday.
Going back to last August and including the playoffs, Philadelphia has won 14 of 20 against L.A. (9-2 at Citizens Bank Park). Also, dating back several seasons, Los Angeles is just 10-25 in its last 35 games in Philly. In addition to last year, the Phillies knocked the Dodgers out of the playoffs in 1983 after getting eliminated by Los Angeles in the 1977 and 1978 NLCS.
Padilla has been brilliant in his first two playoff starts. First, he scattered four hits and a walk in seven scoreless innings of a 5-1 win at St. Louis in the deciding Game 3 of the NLDS. Then in Game 2 of this series Friday, he allowed just one run – a Ryan Howard solo homer – on four hits in 7 1/3 innings, with Los Angeles rallying for a 2-1 victory. Padilla has walked two and struck out 10 in 14 1/3 innings in the postseason. Padilla is 5-0 with a 2.52 ERA for the Dodgers, who have won four straight games behind the 28-year-old and are 8-1 in his nine starts since he was acquired from Texas in late August.
The Dodgers are also unbeaten in Padilla’s five road starts with the team, with the former Phillie going 4-0 with a 2.32 ERA. Prior to Friday, Padilla’s only other previous start against his ex-team came with Texas last June, and he gave up seven runs in six innings of an 8-6 loss. Padilla went 10-11 with a 4.98 ERA in 26 career starts at Citizens Bank Park when he pitched for Philadelphia from 2000-2005.
Hamels gave up four runs in just 5 1/3 innings in Game 1 in Los Angeles on Thursday, but the Phillies’ offense bailed him out in an 8-6 victory, snapping a four-game losing streak behind the left-hander. Hamels has gone five straight starts without a quality performance, giving up a total of 21 runs (all earned) in 27 innings during that stretch (7.00 ERA).
After going 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA in five postseason starts last year – winning both the NLCS and World Series MVPs – Hamels is 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA in two starts this year, including a 5-4 home loss to Colorado in the divisional round. With that defeat, Hamels is 7-6 with a 3.92 ERA in 18 starts at Citizens Bank this season.
Prior to Game 2, Hamels had faced the Dodgers six times in his career, allowing two runs or less in all six games while posting a 1.64 ERA. He pitched seven innings five times and threw a complete-game in the other contest. The Phillies are 5-1 in Hamels’ last six starts versus Los Angeles (2-1 at home).
As a team, Los Angeles sports “over” runs of 11-4 on the road, 8-3 in road playoff games, 7-1 against the N.L. East, 12-4 versus winning teams, 6-1 as an underdog and 7-1 after an off day, but the under is 9-1-2 in its last 12 on Wednesday. Also, the Phillies carry “over” streaks of 18-5-1 overall (6-1 last seven in the playoffs, all against N.L. West competition), 7-2-1 at home, 12-3-1 against right-handed starters, 13-2-1 as a favorite and 3-1-1 with Hamels on the hill.
Finally, the over is 6-3 in the nine postseason meetings between the squads the last two Octobers (3-1 in Philadelphia). Going back to the regular season, the over is 4-1 in the last five battles overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and OVER
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The Los Angeles Dodgers and the Philadelphia Phillies will both be trying to pick up a win on Wednesday when they battle at Citizens Bank Park in Game 5 of the NLCS.
The Dodgers will give the ball to starter Vicente Padilla in this one. Righthander Padilla is 13-6 this season with a 4.17 ERA.
Padilla's opponent in this one will be Cole Hamels. The Phillies ace lefthander has a 4.46 ERA to go along with a 11-12 record this season.
Oddsmakers currently have the Phillies listed as 145-moneyline favorites versus the Dodgers, while the game's total is sitting at 8½.
Jimmy Rollins' two-run double in the bottom of the ninth inning lifted the Phillies past the Dodgers 5-4 in Game 4 of the series on Monday night.
Philadelphia cashed as -125 home favorites, while the teams played OVER the 8.5-run total listed by oddsmakers.
Ryan Howard hit a two-run dinger for the Phillies, as Brad Lidge picked up the win in relief of starter Joe Blanton for Philadelphia.
James Loney was 2-for-4 with a run batted in for Los Angeles, while Jonathan Broxton was tagged with the loss after allowing the winning run in the bottom of the ninth inning.
The Phillies now lead the best-of-seven series 3-1.
Team records:
Los Angeles: 95-67 SU
Philadelphia: 93-69 SU
Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 7-3
Before playing Philadelphia are 6-4
After playing Philadelphia are 7-3
After a loss are 5-5
Philadelphia most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 6-4
Before playing LA Dodgers are 6-4
After playing LA Dodgers are 4-6
After a win are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
LA Dodgers are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of LA Dodgers's last 15 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 9-2 SU in their last 11 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
Next up:
Philadelphia at LA Dodgers, Friday, October 23
Tips and Trends
Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies
Dodgers: Hoping to avoid elimination down 3-1 in the series, the Dodgers are turning to right-hander Vicente Padilla. The Dodgers have won each of Padilla’s past five road starts. Padilla allowed one run on four hits in 7 1/3 innings against the Phillies in the Dodgers’ 2-1 Game 2 victory. Padilla has made two playoff starts this season, giving up just a combined one run on eight hits in 14 1/3 innings. Padilla will be pitching on his regular five days rest, which factored in manager Joe Torre’s decision to go with Padilla instead of Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers are 40-18 following a loss. They are 25-12 in their last 37 games when priced as an underdog between plus $1.10 and plus $1.50. However, Los Angeles has lost 25 of its last 35 games in Philadelphia. The over is 6-1-1 the past eight games Tom Hallion has been behind the plate.
The Over is 10-4-1 in the Dodgers’ last 15 road contests.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 4
Phillies (-$1.35, O/U 8.5): The defending world champions have been money in the bank when favored in the playoffs, winning 10 of their last 11 as postseason chalk. Philadelphia is 17-5 in its last 22 playoff games. The Phillies are 35-16 in their past 51 home contests and 5-1 in Cole Hamels’ last six starts versus the Dodgers. Hamels won the NLCS and World Series MVP honors last year, but hasn’t been sharp in the postseason this season. He’s given up eight earned runs in 10 1/3 innings for a 6.97 ERA. Hamels had a down season going 10-11 with a 4.42 ERA. He was better at home going 7-6 with a 3.92 ERA compared to 4-6 with a 5.09 road ERA. The under is 16-7-3 in Hamels’ last 26 home starts against a team with a winning record. The left-hander is 4-1 with a 2.19 ERA in seven career starts versus the Dodgers.
The Over is 15-4-2 in the Phillies’ last 21 games.
The Under is 8-2-1 in Hamels’ last 11 starts as a favorite.
Key Injuries - J.C. Romero (arm) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5(OVER - Total of the Day)