Friday's Best MLB Mound Matchup
Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati Reds vs. Roy Oswalt, Philadelphia Phillies
Bronson Arroyo (17-10, 3.88 ERA)
The wanna-be rock star quietly had his strongest season in the National League.
Since coming over from Boston in 2006 he had merely flashed his overall skills, but this season he ranked fourth in the NL in wins (17), sixth in complete games (2) and eighth in WHIP (1.15) and innings pitched (215.2).
Arroyo hasn’t pitched in the postseason since his time with the Red Sox. But in three pressure-packed seasons he appeared in five different series and a total of 10 starts, failing to impress nearly every time. In 17 career postseason innings – including two starts – he has yielded 14 earned runs on a staggering 19 hits. His playoff ERA is an astronomical 7.41.
The hurler also doesn’t throw well against the Phillies. In his career, he is just 1-5 against the Phils with a horrid 5.54 ERA.
"You know, Bronson's been here before," Reds manager Dusty Baker told the Cincinnati Enquirer. "They have some guys over there that have had some success against Bronson, too. But there are some guys last night that didn't have any success against Volquez and ended up having success. So, it's just hard to tell."
The over is 4-0-1 in Arroyo’s past five outings but just 12-16 in his starts this season.
Roy Oswalt (13-13, 2.76 ERA)
So how does the 33-year-old from Weir, Mississippi, follow up Roy Halladay’s performance?
He starts by trying to build on his strong regular season that saw him finish first in the National League in WHIP (1.03), fifth in ERA, sixth in complete games (2) and 10th in strikeouts (193).
Since coming over to Philadelphia from Houston, the former Astro has been pitching other-worldly, posting a quality start in 10 of his 13 outings. Discounting an inning of work he put in on Sunday against the Braves to stay fresh, Oswalt has given up only one earned run over his past 27 innings.
Against the Reds he is just as good. Oswalt is 23-3 lifetime against Cincinnati with a 2.81 ERA, limiting the Reds to a .242 batting average.
"There's really no way to explain it from when I first started," Oswalt told the Philadelphia Inquirer. "A few times I actually gave up a few runs against them and my team came back and scored me a few. There really wasn't one direct thing, I guess."
Oswalt has seen three of his past five starts go under the total and is 12-20 against the number this season.
NLDS Betting Trends and Angles
By: Barry Daniels
The Philadelphia Phillies are minus 270 MLB odds favorites in their best-of-five National League Division Series against the Cincinnati Reds for several good reasons. There aren’t as many quality explanations for the San Francisco Giants opening as slim 155 favorites in their NLDS with the wild-card Atlanta Braves.
Philadelphia Phillies versus Cincinnati Reds
The Phillies captured five of the seven regular-season games against the Reds, including a four-game sweep at Philadelphia from July 8-11. The last two games of that series saw the Phils register back-to-back 1-0 shutout victories. That helped the ‘under’ cash in four of the last five series matchups.
Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay were on the hill for the Phils in those back-to-back whitewashes.
The Reds took two of three from the Phils during a three-game series in Cincinnati during the last week of June. Aaron Harang, who will be pitching out of the bullpen in the playoffs, got the better of Halladay in the finale of that series as a 142 home underdog, 4-3.
The Reds closed as MLB betting underdogs four times during the seven-game regular season series.
Philadelphia is 52-29 at home and 45-36 on the road, with the ‘under’ going 85-74-3 overall. The club is 12-3 in its last 15 home playoff games and a remarkable 49-19 in its last 68 overall outings.
The Phillies finished the season strong, going a major league-best 21-6 in September. Some of the success was due to a pitching staff that allowed three runs or less 12 times. However, most of the victories during that 27-game stretch can be attributed to a Philadelphia offense that averaged 5.6 runs per game.
The strong finish enabled the Phils to garner home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and choose an eight-day format for their NLDS match. That eight-day MLB schedule works to the Phils’ advantage because it allows them to go with a menacing three-man rotation of Halladay, Hamels and Roy Oswalt without having any of the hurlers pitch on short rest.
The Reds are 4-10 in their last 14 road encounters, which lowered their overall road mark to a respectable 42-39. They are also 3-7 in their last 10 games as an underdog.
Nevertheless, the Reds lead the National League in batting average (.271), home runs (187) and runs per game (4.9). Joey Votto ended the regular campaign hitting .324 with 37 homers and 113 RBIs. Votto is hitting .393 against the Phillies in 28 at-bats. Additionally, the Reds are hitting an NL-best .278 with runners in scoring position.
San Francisco Giants versus Atlanta Braves
The San Francisco Giants are 155 MLB odds favorites against the Braves despite dropping four of the seven regular season meetings and hitting just .197 against Atlanta pitching.
The Braves captured three of four games in the most recent series during the first week in August. Atlanta recorded victories of 3-2, 3-0 and 6-3, while the Giants registered a 3-2 extra inning win in the second game of that series to avoid getting swept. Three of those four games dipped ‘under’ the closing total.
San Francisco took two contests of a three-game series in April at AT&T Park. The club sneaked out a 5-4 extra inning victory in the opener, and then captured the finale 6-3. The Braves came out on top in the middle game, 7-2. The ‘over’ cashed twice, with one ‘push.’
The Braves closed as a favorite in five of the seven series matches.
Hitting might be a problem for both teams. The Braves will be playing without Chipper Jones and Martin Prado, two batters who had hit third in the lineup during the course of the season and who suffered season-ending injuries.
The Giants must hope Buster Posey finds his hitting stroke. The rookie catcher finished the campaign in a 6-for-42 (.143) hitting funk.
Atlanta had the best home record in baseball at 56-25, but was just 35-46 on the road. Bobby Cox’s troops are 63-44 against right-handed starters, but just 28-27 versus southpaws. The Braves are 8-7 in extra inning games and 23-22 in one-run affairs. They own a plus-109 run differential by outscoring the opposition, 738-629.
San Francisco is 49-32 at home, 43-38 on the road, 68-50 against right-handed starters and 24-20 versus southpaws. The Giants are 11-8 in extra innings and 28-24 in one-run contests.
The Giants’ 583 runs allowed is the second fewest in baseball, which helped them register a plus-104 run differential (697-583).
MLB Playoffs
Oswalt is 2-0, 0.67 in his last four starts; six of his last eight starts went under the total. He was 0-2, 6.75 in two starts vs Cincinnati this year, back when he pitched for Houston. Arroyo is 3-0, 2.25 in his last four starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five-- he didn't pitch against Phillies this year. Reds had only one baserunner in Game 1, and Oswalt has been as hot as Halladay, so Arroyo has to keep his team in game early.
Hanson was hit by a line drive in BP Thursday, still expected to go here; he is 1-0, 1.99 in his last five starts- under is 6-2 in his last eight starts. He allowed one run in seven IP in an August 6 no-decision against the Giants. Cain is 4-1, 2.91 in his last five starts; he lost 3-0 to Braves on August 7 (three runs/five IP). Atlanta hitters struck out 14 times last night in dominant start by Linceum. Home team is 6-2 in Giant-Brave games this season.
Reds and Phillies Resume Series
By: Stephen Nover
The Cincinnati Reds picked a bad time to get no-hit for just the second time since 1971.
The Reds will try to even their National League playoff series as they meet Philadelphia in Game 2 Friday at 3:07 p.m. (PT) with TBS televising.
MLB oddsmakers don’t think much of Cincinnati’s chances. They’ve opened the Phillies as 185 home favorites with Roy Oswalt against Bronson Arroyo. The ‘over/under’ is 7 ½ with the ‘over’ at minus 130.
Making their first playoff appearance in 15 years, the Reds were completely dominated by Roy Halladay in Game 1 this past Wednesday.
Halladay, a 200 favorite against Edinson Volquez, completely overmatched Cincinnati in throwing just the second no-hitter in postseason history. The first was Don Larsen’s perfect game for the New York Yankees in the 1956 World Series versus the Brooklyn Dodgers.
The Reds didn’t come close to getting a hit in the 4-0 loss. Their only runner was Jay Bruce, who walked on a full count in the fifth inning. Halladay threw 79 strikes out of 104 pitches. The combined four runs went ‘under’ the seven-run total.
The good news is the Reds won’t see Halladay, a strong Cy Young Award candidate with 21 wins, for a while. The bad news is they draw Oswalt, another of the top pitchers this decade.
Oswalt is 0-2 this year versus Cincinnati. Prior to that, though, Oswalt owned the Reds winning 23 straight decisions against them. The 33-year-old right-hander is 23-3 versus Cincinnati with a 2.81 ERA in 34 career games.
Oswalt is 13-3 with a 2.76 ERA this season. He has won all five of his decisions at Citizens Band Park since joining Philadelphia from Houston in late July. The Phillies are 10-1 in Oswalt’s past 11 starts.
The Reds led the NL in batting average (.272), home runs (188) and runs (790). But they lack playoff experience, while seven of Philadelphia’s eight hitters who started in Game 1 had been in the playoffs before.
The Phillies have dominated the Reds at home, winning 12 of the past 14 times at Citizens Band Park, including capturing the last seven meetings. The ‘under’ has cashed in 10 of the last 13 games in Philadelphia between the two clubs.
Philadelphia is trying to become the first NL team in 66 years to win three straight pennants. The Phillies are 13-1 the past 14 times they’ve been favored in postseason action. They have captured 13 of their last 16 home playoff contests.
Arroyo will try to halt the Phillies’ momentum. He’s the Reds’ lone starting pitcher with playoff experience. Arroyo last pitched in the postseason with the Boston Red Sox in 2005.
The 33-year-old right-hander has a 7.41 ERA in 10 postseason games totaling 17 innings. He was 17-10 during the regular-season with a 3.88 ERA.
Arroyo may not have to deal with Phillies third baseman Placido Polanco, who missed Game 1 because of a sore back. Arroyo was more effective on the road this year going 10-5 with a 3.76 ERA compared to 7-5 at home with a 4.03 ERA. Cincinnati is 11-5 in Arroyo’s last 16 road outings.
The Reds have gone 8-3 following a loss. However, they have dropped eight of their past 10 road games in an underdog role. The ‘over’ is 17-5-4 the past 26 games following a Cincinnati loss.
Philadelphia is 20-8 in its last 28 games versus the Reds.
Bruce Dreckman is scheduled to be the home plate umpire. The Phillies are 1-9 the past 10 times Dreckman has been behind the plate in their games.
The early weather forecast is for clear skies with temperatures in the 60’s with zero percent chance of rain.
Cain versus Hanson in Game 2
By: Michael Robinson
San Francisco Giants (90-72) pitcher Matt Cain looks to rebound from an awful home start when his team hosts the Atlanta Braves on Friday night.
This is Game 2 of the series, with the opener still pending from late Thursday night. The three other first-round series began on Wednesday, with two road teams (Texas, NY Yankees) coming away winners.
Cain (13-11, 3.14 ERA) came up small in the biggest start of his career last Friday night. He was moved ahead of Barry Zito in a potential division-clincher against San Diego. Instead, he allowed three home runs and six earned runs over four innings, losing 6-4.
San Francisco lost again Saturday (4-2) with Zito and didn’t wrap up the NL West until a 3-0 Sunday win behind Jonathan Sanchez.
The 26-year-old Cain was very good in his previous seven starts down the stretch (4-0, 2.45 ERA). The Giants won all seven. His splits show a moderately lower ERA at home (2.93) than away (3.35). San Fran is 10-2 in his last 12 home starts overall.
The right-hander made one start versus Atlanta this year. It was on the road on August 7, three earned runs over five innings in a 3-0 loss. He’s 2-2 with a 4.03 ERA in five lifetime starts versus the Braves. The MLB odds ‘under’ is 4-0 in his last four starts against them.
The Giants are making their first playoff appearance since 2003. That means none of the four projected starters, Cain, Sanchez, Tim Lincecum and Madison Bumgarner have playoff experience (Zito will pitch in relief). Those four starters were incredible in September with a combined 1.66 ERA.
Atlanta (91-72) needed a victory last Sunday over Philadelphia, and the San Diego loss, to clinch the wild-card. This is long-time manager Bobby Cox’ last year.
Tommy Hanson (10-11, 3.33 ERA) will oppose Cain. He pitched last Saturday against Philly, allowing no earned runs over five innings, but was pulled after 89 pitches for a pinch-hitter. The Phillies then scored seven runs for a 7-0 win.
The 24-year-old righthander was 8-5 with a 4.13 ERA before the All-Star break. His ERA was just 2.51 after, but he went 2-6 and Atlanta won just six of 16 games.
Hanson had a lower away ERA (3.22) than home (3.43) this year. His one start against the Giants was on August 6 at home, one earned run and three hits over seven innings. He’s never pitched in San Francisco.
Injuries have been a big factor for Atlanta. Starter Jair Jurrjens (knee) is out until at least the NLCS. Untested rookie Brandon Beachy is the projected Game 4 starter. Infielders Chipper Jones (knee) and Martin Prado (hip) are out for the year. Brooks Conrad and Omar Infante are starting at third and second base respectively.
Atlanta was fifth in the NL in runs scored this year (4.56), but slumped to 13th in September (3.41). San Francisco averaged 4.3 runs for the year, 9th in the NL.
The Braves are 4-3 against the Giants this season (1-2 away). They’re 1-6 in their last seven games in San Francisco.
First pitch on Friday is 6:37 p.m. (PT). Weather should be around 60 degrees.
Sanchez (13-9, 3.07 ERA) will get the Game 3 start on Sunday. He has a miniscule 1.03 ERA in his last seven starts. Atlanta’s Tim Hudson (17-9, 2.83 ERA) will be the opposition. The 35-year-old veteran has a 5.32 ERA in seven starts since September 1.