MLB Previews: The Best And Worst In The AL East
By The Prez
With pitchers and catchers reporting to spring camps, it’s time to start previewing each division in baseball – and we’ll start with the AL East, which again should be the best division in the Majors.
The AL East is home to the reigning World Series champion as well as the always-in-contention Boston Red Sox.
The Tampa Bay Rays should provide the stiffest test to Boston and New York for the division and the AL wild-card spot. The Orioles are improving but still not a playoff threat, while the Blue Jays figure to take a step back with the loss of Roy Halladay.
AL East’s best pitching rotation: Red Sox
You could argue that three of the Top 10 rotations in baseball are in this division. Tampa Bay’s is a small step down from Boston’s and New York’s.
The Red Sox added John Lackey this offseason to go with Josh Beckett and Jon Lester while the Yankees traded for Atlanta’s Javier Vasquez to eat up innings between C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett starts.
Boston has the deepest rotation in baseball if Daisuke Matsuzaka gets right. He was shut down early last season with a tired shoulder and wound up winning just four games after going 18-3 in 2008. But there’s no World Baseball Classic this spring to wreck Matsuzaka’s training.
Supposedly Dice-K has recommitted himself this offseason and reported to spring training early. Tim Wakefield and Clay Buchholz round out the rest of Boston’s rotation; Buchholz could start the year in the bullpen if Dice-K is back to his 2008 form.
Worst rotation: Orioles
Take your pick between the Jays and Orioles. I’d probably have to say Baltimore, because at least the Jays have some potential in Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum (when those two are healthy), Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow, among others.
The Birds are counting on Kevin Millwood to be their No. 1 starter and Jeremy Guthrie as their No. 2. That’s not good.
Best batting order: Yankees
New York has a potential All-Star at six of the eight positions with the acquisition of center fielder Curtis Granderson from Detroit. Throw in Nick Swisher and his 29 home runs and 82 RBIs among the potential All-Stars.
The only question mark is in left field. The Yankees decided that Johnny Damon was too expensive to bring back and will go with a platoon of Brett Gardner and Randy Winn.
The Yanks were the only team in baseball to top 900 runs last year and also led MLB in homers, total bases, on-base percentage and slugging. There’s no reason they won’t lead all those again, especially with Alex Rodriguez healthy for the start of the 2010 campaign.
Worst batting order: Orioles
There’s no doubt that Baltimore is starting to get back to respectability, but the Birds still have the worst overall batting order in the division.
Adam Jones is a flat-out star in center and Nick Markakis is a solid right fielder. Catcher Matt Wieters is probably a future All-Star, but the O’s have some questions in left, shortstop, DH and first base, where Garrett Atkins will play now that Baltimore signed Miguel Tejada to play third.
But you are supposed to have power at both corners, and Atkins/Tejada isn’t all that exiting.
Best defense and bullpen: Red Sox and Yanks
The Red Sox were the third-worst team in the majors in defensive efficiency, converting only 67.9 percent of balls in play into outs last season, but all three of their big position player additions are excellent defenders.
Adrian Beltre might be the best defensive third baseman in baseball and Mike Cameron is still a top-flight defender in center. Boston will move Ellsbury to left to replace Bay, while Kevin Youkilis should stay at first base now.
Every projected defensive starter but Beltre was among the top 10 in the majors at his position in fielding percentage last year. But Beltre ranked No. 1 in the majors at the position in ultimate zone rating and third in the majors at any position.
The bullpen edge still would have to go to the Yankees and the incomparable Mo Rivera. That’s assuming the struggles that Phil Hughes had in last year’s playoffs (assuming he’s the one who stays in the bullpen) were a fluke. Hughes was tremendous during the regular season.
Worst defense and bullpen: Orioles
Defense can be such a subjective stat, but again the Orioles bring up the rear on this as well.
Tejada can still hit fairly well but has no range. That’s because he’s 50.
And Atkins is a natural third baseman playing first. Jones will need to catch everything he can in the outfield.
Do you prefer Mike Gonzalez or Jason Frasor as your closer? That’s really what bullpens come down to – the closer.
Gonzalez is the Orioles’ new closer and I’d prefer him to Frasor, but the Jays have a lot more power arms they can put in the bullpen. Sorry, Baltimore, you finish last in bullpen strength as well.
Best value bet: Rays
Because the Yankees and Red Sox are so overpriced, our best bet is to take a flyer on the Rays at +1100. If they can find some improvement defensively and get a better performance from their bullpen, they have a shot to repeat their 2008 performance.
Tampa Bay sort of got caught in a World Series hangover to start last season and never fully recovered from a slow start. But the Rays fixed one of the big problems this offseason by acquiring closer Rafael Soriano from the Braves.
This could be the last time this group gets a chance because of the impending free agency of Carlos Pena and Carl Crawford. Look for those two to have big years before hitting the open market.
This team could surprise with a second division crown in three seasons.