MLB Series Betting- St. Louis at Cincinnati
By Doug Upstone
This is the time of the year when baseball really starts to get fun because there is attractive matchups like this one that has meaningful significance to the pennant races. Almost the entire season, the echoes have reverberated San Diego and Cincinnati (64-48, +13.7 units) were a great baseball story, but eventually they would come back to earth and be the mediocre teams most expected back in March. With eight weeks to go in the regular season, barring a Sands hotel-like collapse, the first place Reds aren’t going anywhere.
Cincinnati’s unemployment rate is hovering at 10 percent, but for the first time in years, the baseball team is providing a positive distraction, in a town known as a great baseball community. The Reds return home off a 5-1 divisional road trip and lead St. Louis (61- 49, -6.1) by one game in the loss column and are 11-4 since July 23, including winning nine of last 11, in which they’ve outscored the opposition 70-33. “It’s time,” manager Dusty Baker said. “They (the players) had been wanting us to focus on it but we had to focus on the Cubs. To come in here and get a sweep in Chicago (first time in five years) is big for us.”
The Cardinals are top heavy and manager Tony LaRussa knows it. If St. Louis is going to repeat as division champions, they have to play better on the road (23-31) and get more out of the back end of the rotation. For this series in the Queen City, St. Louis come fully prepared with Chris Carpenter, Jamie Garcia and Adam Wainwright as the scheduled pitchers for the Redbirds. This terrific trio is 45-24 in games they’ve started, the best in baseball.
Carpenter (12-3, 2.91 ERA) will look to get St. Louis off to a good start in the series and he has been on top of his game. The right-hander is 3-0 in last five starts (all Cardinals’ wins), with undersized ERA of 1.64. Carpenter has three wins already this season against the Reds and is 10-3 with 1.96 ERA lifetime against Cincy. Sportsbooks have St. Louis as -133 money line favorites with total Ov7.5 for this ESPN 7:10 Eastern telecast and Carpenter and the Cards are is 9-1 OVER as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season, winning by two runs per contest.
The Reds counter with their rookie Mike Leake (7-3, 3.86), who after a sensational start, might be tiring, having lost last two starts and been hit hard.
His earned run average in those defeats is 7.94 and Cincinnati is 6-15 at home after a win by win six runs or more, like yesterday’s 11-4 crushing of the Cubs. That number overlaps Baker teams that frankly were not very good and this Reds bunch is 24-11 after allowing four runs or less three straight games this year.
Game 1 Edge: St. Louis
The second game of the series brings elements relating to both clubs. St. Louis knows it can leave town atop the NL Central with a sweep and might not have to look back in doing so. The task is fundamentally difficult since Cincinnati has not been swept at Great American Ball Park in more than a year, falling to Colorado over three days in late July over early August.
Granted, Albert Pujols hits against everybody, but coming into this series he’s hot even by his own standards, having gone 16 for 32 with five homers and 11 RBIs in the last seven contests. Against Cincy this campaign he’s hitting .381 with three homers and 12 RBIs. Left-hander Jamie Garcia (9-5, 2.53) got two extra days off between starts after his worst outing of the season (8 runs and 10 hits over five innings) and manager LaRussa hopes that is the right tonic to get the young pitcher back to form. The Cards are 5-1 in Garcia’s last six starts against winning squads.
Cincinnati has been battering lefties of late with 16-5 mark. Reds starter Johnny Cueto (11-2, 3.24) has been devastating with 5-1 record and 1.55 ERA over his past nine starts. Don’t expect St. Louis to load up with LH hitters, as they are only batting .221 against Cueto, compared to RH batters who hitting .274. The Reds are 6-1 in previous seven Game 2’s outings and have won all five in that exact same situation in which Cueto was the starting pitcher.
Game 2 Edge: Cincinnati
The final contest of the series is a day time affair, with Adam Wainwright trading pitches with Bronson Arroyo. Wainwright (16-6, 2.07) often is the second fiddle of the St. Louis staff, but know this, he’s only the second hurler in the Cardinals storied history to have 16 victories and an ERA that low in 24 starts to begin a season. The other is Hall of Fame great Bob Gibson. The Redbirds are 21-18 in day games and if they are favored by -200 or less with Wainwright the pitcher, the Cards are 8-0.
Arroyo (12-6. 3.83) is in the Top 20 of units won at +6.4 in baseball. His career shows a pitcher who runs like a Moet faucet, hot or cold. He’s being scalding with 2.62 ERA in previous 10 starts and has not given up a run in consecutive starts. His changing speeds on his curveball has been wicked, with batters hitting a meek .177 against him. He and the Reds are 6-2 as underdogs and 22-18 under natural light.
Game 3 Edge: Cincinnati
Had my string of five series wins in a row snapped last week; however I feel I get back on track here. The Cardinals have the pitching edge with their exceptional starters, yet they 2-7 in road series since May and are 9-17 in traveling gray uniforms. The play here is the excited home underdog with a lot to prove and Cincinnati builds on lead by Wednesday evening.
Sportsbooks series odds: St. Louis -135, Cincinnati +105
3Daily Winners Pick: Cincinnati